The Manosphere Report

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3:46Happy Monday, everybody. This is A Numbers Game with Ryan Gruduski.

3:50I'm your host and honored to be here.

3:52We have a great guest today.

3:54One of the premier pollsters in the country is going to come up to talk

3:58about the midterms, how people and voters are feeling about Iran, about AI, about how

4:03working class voters feel about Trump.

4:06There's a lot of conversation on whether or not he's lost his working class base.

4:10And if you didn't pay attention to the weekend episode, my brief weekend episode, Tony

4:16Gonzalez, the very, very disgraceful congressman from Texas announced he was dropping his re -election

4:24date. I recorded a brief episode over the weekend if you didn't maybe heard that,

4:29discussing his announcement and what that could possibly mean.

4:31And if there was any chance of him making a comeback.

4:34But goodbye and good riddance.

4:36Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

4:38I'm very proud, by the way, of all the episodes I did about him that

4:43I, you know, worked to try to apply pressure as much as possible.

4:47And I have done that with a few other elected officials who I feel like

4:50don't deserve the office. I have a deep dive coming about a Democratic candidate seeking

4:56elected office. That should be out this week or early next.

5:00Last week was insane. It was a month -long week.

5:04All the episodes I did, I thought I was constantly chasing the news stories.

5:07You had stories about Iran and Texas and Kristi Noem being fired or demoted with

5:13Corey Lewandowski. I didn't even get the chance to really cover that one and I

5:17can't. I mean, everyone basically has heard what the story is.

5:21There's really no point of going to a deep...

5:23dive. I am Mark Wayne Mullen, Senator Mark Wayne Mullen will be her replacement.

5:27I don't know much about him.

5:29I've never spoken to him.

5:30I know that he's a favorite darling of the media.

5:33He's got an okay, actually a less than okay voting record in Congress on immigration.

5:39But the good thing is, is that he is excellent on interior enforcement and the

5:45border, which is primarily his job.

5:47So before we go to our interview, we need to get to numbers behind two

5:51stories. One, the media has picked up a lot about, but is not giving a

5:55full story of or full picture of.

5:57And then the other one, they totally ignored, which makes sense given what the contexts

6:01are. So the first one on the jobs number that came out on Friday morning,

6:07I'm not going to sugarcoat them.

6:09They are very bad. The jobs number in February were much weaker than expected.

6:16The economy lost 92 ,000 jobs with the unemployment rate hitting 4 .4%.

6:22The jobs report from December was also revised.

6:26It looks like the economy lost 17 ,000 jobs during that month.

6:30Now being revised downward has become a new normal almost every month for the last

6:35two years. This predates Trump.

6:38Two years has been revised downwards.

6:41Even healthcare jobs in February lost.

6:44And that's partially because of the strikes that were going on in the industry.

6:47But still, healthcare has been the one part of the economy that's been growing successfully.

6:54Manufacturing jobs shed, manufacturing shed 12 ,000 jobs.

6:58We lost about 100 ,000 jobs from February, from February, 2025 to February, 2026.

7:0489 ,000 manufacturing jobs since Liberation Day.

7:08The tariffs haven't done anything to revise our longstanding decline in manufacturing jobs.

7:13And the U .S. has shed 238 ,000 manufacturing, transportation, and mining jobs over the

7:21last year. Blue -collar jobs are not in good shape.

7:25It's not just white -collar jobs.

7:27The U .S. has lost an average of 1 ,000 jobs per month over the

7:31last six months, the fourth of fifth month with a negative moving average.

7:36This is the 12th time this has happened in the economy since 1950.

7:41All other times were during a recession.

7:44Now, a big part of our declining number came from government sector jobs.

7:48That is true. The U .S.

7:49has shed 234 ,000 government sector jobs since January 2025.

7:54Something I didn't expect, but I read in the report, was that we actually added

8:00and grew government jobs in February.

8:03Healthcare, which is heavily subsidized by the government, construction, utilities, and hospitalities are the only

8:08industries over the last year to see net positive job growth.

8:13The number of people holding multiple jobs has fallen by 352 ,000 year to year,

8:22which is down for the third straight month.

8:25That's the first time that's happened since COVID, since the lockdowns, which would be good

8:30news if full -time jobs weren't contracting at the same time.

8:34Full -time jobs were down 1 .1 % from January 2025.

8:38E .J. and Tony, who I've had in this podcast, where the government payroll fell

8:41by 6 ,000, while private sector payroll fell by 86 ,000.

8:46Job growth among native -born Americans is up only 128 ,000 jobs year to year.

8:53That's not great. Foreign -born hiring is down 519 ,000.

8:59Non -farm payroll jobs are up 129 ,000 year to year, and employment is down

9:05391 ,000. A crazy statistic that employment, that I read while reading these numbers, employment

9:14for white Americans is actually holding steady.

9:17The number, the percentage of Americans, white Americans who are unemployed actually went down from

9:213 .8 % in December 2025 to 3 .7%.

9:25Almost everybody else, it went up.

9:28It is black unemployment grew from 6 % to 7 .7, Asians from 3 .2

9:33to 4 .8, and Latinos have remained steady at 5 .2, though they were up

9:37last month from the month before, but averaged out equally going back to January.

9:42Young people, both with and without a college degree, are seeing the worst ramifications from

9:48the job market. Teenage unemployment went from 13 % to nearly 15%.

9:53There were a few bright spots.

9:55A rare bright spot is that wage growth is remaining very healthy at 3 .8%.

9:59It is growing. The wages are growing more than inflation.

10:02That's a good thing. You're beating on inflation with your numbers.

10:05Economic growth also remains very strong.

10:08Productivity is at 2 .2 % above the CBO's pre -pandemic forecast.

10:14And that comes despite the tariffs.

10:17Now, so many economists said that the tariffs were going to slow down productivity to

10:22a screeching halt. That hasn't happened.

10:25They were completely wrong. They predicted that utterly wrong.

10:27There's a question that people in the media don't seem to be asking, which is

10:34how much of economic growth is, an expected job growth, more or less, should be

10:43linked to the change in the immigration numbers and the AI.

10:47Because we've seen a significant crackdown on immigration and you...

10:51add AI to the equation, and you kind of have to ask yourself, how much

10:55job growth should we expect to see with limited population and a changing towards more

11:01mechanization? It's not being discussed enough.

11:05Aside from that, oil prices and gas prices have risen because of the war with

11:08Iran, and according to Vanguard, a record -breaking 6 % of workers are dipping into

11:14their 401k plans, the plans that are administered by the company, and withdrawing from their

11:20retirement account. That's up from 4 .8 % in 2024 and from 2 % before

11:25the pandemic. Look, you don't have to be no sure to know these numbers are

11:28not good for Republicans. They're not good for President Trump going into November.

11:32And it's not, I mean, there's no other way to say it.

11:35There's just no other way to say it.

11:36Democrats, of course, are all over the media blaming Trump and Republicans for this economic

11:40instability in the markets and the poor job numbers.

11:44And Republicans really have two months to see numbers change, two months.

11:51You can make a direct correlation between the rising unemployment levels between Asians and Hispanics

11:57and their reversion back to the Democratic Party.

12:00So much is pocketbook issues.

12:03And with crime being an all -time low, and we're going to get to crime

12:06in a second, there are few other things, aside from culture war issues, where Republicans

12:13can really lean to try to win people back.

12:16It puts them in a very dangerous situation.

12:19They really have two months to turn something around, get oil prices back down, and

12:23get the economy moving and jobs hiring, because that's a big part of it.

12:28Now let's get to a story that I want to share with you from last

12:31week. That was, you know, that was amazing, but it was in such a crazy

12:35news cycle that, well, Democrats would have never picked it up.

12:38I mean, absolutely never picked it up, but it didn't really make Republican media.

12:42There was a study published two weeks ago by, I'm going to mispronounce their name,

12:46but there it is, but Ponka Benksik from Vanderbilt University and Tyler Giles, or Giles,

12:52from Wellesley College. The study examined how local prosecutors improved public health.

12:59The paper investigated the casual relationship between approaches taken by local criminal prosecution and district

13:04attorneys and community -level mortality rates, especially in terms of how tough on crime Republican

13:11prosecutors fared compared to a more compassionate approach by Democratic prosecutors.

13:17The study found this. Using data from hundreds of closely contested partisan elections from 2010

13:22to 2019 and a vote share regression discontinuality design, we find the narrow election of

13:29a Republican prosecutor reduces all cause mortality rates among young men ages 20 to 29

13:36by 6 .6%. This decline is driven predominantly by a reduction in firearm -related deaths,

13:43including a large reduction in firearm homicide among Black men and a smaller reduction in

13:49firearm suicides and accidents primarily among white men.

13:53Mechanism analysis indicates that increased prison -based incapacitation explains about one -third of the effect

14:00among Black men and none of the effect among white men.

14:02Instead, the primary channel appears to be a substantial increase in criminal conviction rates across

14:07racial groups and crime types, which then reduces firearm access through legal restrictions on gun

14:13ownership of the conviction. This is such a validation for Republicans and conservatives who have

14:20been saying for so long that the most efficient thing you can do to stop

14:27crime is actually be harmed on criminals.

14:29CNN obviously did not cover this investigation.

14:32I mean, Abby Phillips would have started screaming uncontrollably, interrupting everybody if it was even

14:37brought up, and she would have to admit to me that the whole thing was

14:39fake. You know, but what the paper's saying, and what this, this is a very

14:46credible study. This is not a study by some right -wing lunatic.

14:49The best thing for a Black American is a Republican district attorney.

14:54There's no other way to say it.

14:56So few people in our inner cities are habitual criminals.

15:03They commit a majority of crimes, even though they are a minuscule portion of the

15:08population. And for a decade plus, they have plagued these inner cities.

15:13They have plagued these communities.

15:15By cracking down on those chosen few, primarily Black and Latino, you dramatically increase the

15:22quality of life and life expectancy for all other members of that community.

15:28The same men who people like Sonny Hostin from The View or Ashley Allison from

15:35CNN pretend to care about, they pretend like the lives of Black Americans is their

15:40number one priority, and then advocate in the next breath an abolition to the police

15:45or a reduction of the police or a Democrat district attorney, get those same people.

15:51They pretend to care about killed.

15:56I've been reading a book called Gods of New York by Jonathan Mahler, and it

16:01discovers New York from 1986 to 1990, and it's such a reminder, having grown up

16:07in that city at the time that Rudy Giuliani was going in to save it,

16:11right before he got sworn in and became a mayor, that the group who benefited

16:16the most from Giuliani's mayor, Now everyone benefited, but the group that benefited the most

16:21were blacks in New York City, tens of thousands of whom, possibly 20 to 30

16:28,000, if you look at the percentages of people dying in gun homicides, were saved.

16:34Their lives were saved because of Rudy Giuliani, and he will never get an ounce

16:40of credit for anything that he did.

16:42And he's just the most, I think, prolific example of a mayor of a very,

16:47of the biggest city, not a very big city, but a big city who advocated

16:51for policies that the media screamed their head off were racists.

16:56You know, he wasn't DA, of course.

16:57He was federal prosecutor and obviously mayor.

16:59But not only did he not win the black vote, he will spend, they will

17:04deem him as a racist even after he goes to his grave.

17:08That he was a mean person who really picked on black people and then sold

17:15Times Square to Disney. But the people who promote the weak on crime policy in

17:20opposition to Giuliani, in opposition to Republican DAs across the country, they're the ones who

17:26really don't care about the lives of working class people and primarily of black people.

17:31They don't care. They're indifferent to the outcomes so long as the policies they support

17:37are enacted because it feels good.

17:39It's pretend caring. It's pretend, you know, that you're a member of the working class.

17:47You're an advocate for the black community.

17:49You get to sit there and fake it.

17:50So the next time you're in casual conversation with mixed company and this is brought

17:55up, Vanderbilt University and Wesley University, electing a Republican DA reduces black homicides by almost

18:017%. I think it's really important that people know that and that the especially woke

18:08wine moms who spend their whole day screeching at Republicans and that they are really

18:14fighting against racism hear that and know that.

18:16OK, next up, let's get to our interview about polling in the midterms.

18:21It's an exclusive interview for my audience.

18:22No one is getting this.

18:23It's so exciting. That's coming up next.

18:26Stay tuned. Go to public .com slash podcast and earn an uncapped 1 % bonus.

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19:26Complete disclosures available at public .com slash disclosures.

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22:05Brent Buchanan is the president of Signal Polling, an amazing polling company.

22:10He has a exclusive poll on the midterm elections and some other big policy questions.

22:16Brent, thank you for being here and giving my audience the exclusive.

22:19Yeah, great to be back, Brian.

22:21Okay, so first questions first.

22:23How is it looking for Republicans in the midterms and how does this compare to

22:27the 2018 midterm? Yeah, I love that you framed it this way because too often

22:34we just say, well, how did this change from last month as opposed to how

22:37does this look compared to the 22 midterm or the 2018 midterm?

22:41And if we look back at 2018 as the frame, which was not a great

22:45year for Republicans, we also have to remember that was at the end of a

22:49redistricting decade. And so a lot had changed in those seats over that time.

22:55So back then it was anywhere from Democrats plus seven to Democrats plus 13 at

23:00this stage. And Democrats went on to win the House by about nine points in

23:03the actual vote. So it kind of landed right in the middle of that number.

23:07And right now we have Democrats with a four -point lead, 49 to 45, which

23:12is a point better for them than February.

23:15But all polls have a margin of error.

23:17This one's around 2%, which is a very low margin.

23:21But aligning in all of this too, is that Republicans at 45 % ballot share

23:27on the generic ballots, actually the highest we've had since October.

23:31What do you attribute that to in the sense that Republicans, I mean, Democrats have

23:37a lead, but it's not this monster tidal wave of a lead compared to 2018.

23:44What groups are not breaking their way that used to break their way?

23:49Well, the diploma divide, which I wrote about in my book, and I didn't come

23:54up with the name or the concept, but I just do believe it's been a

23:58big factor in elections. We've actually seen non -college educated voters moving away from Republicans

24:04for about the last six months and college educated voters moving towards Republicans, which if

24:10it happened in a single month, I would not have read into it.

24:13But the fact that it had been a trend over the last six months made

24:16me believe there was something to it.

24:18That trend reversed this month.

24:20Non -college educated voters came home to Republicans.

24:23College educated voters went from an 11 -point advantage for Democrats in February to a

24:2821 -point advantage for Democrats in just one month.

24:33So we're kind of getting back to what I would say is stasis, even though

24:37the top line number doesn't really look like it's moved.

24:43What's interesting is that, you know, a lot of our seats that we need to

24:47win are suburban house districts.

24:48And so they're more heavily weighted towards college educated voters.

24:52And that's something we're definitely going to be watching as the election progresses.

24:55But let's all keep in mind that November is a political eternity from now.

25:00Yeah. Well, and that's why so many people were in the 2022 election when Republicans

25:06didn't do as well as they wanted to, even though they won the generic ballot.

25:09It's just because the assortment of where our voters were, you know, they were Republicans

25:14is much better in the city than they ever had, but not enough to win

25:17any of the city seats.

25:18But we're losing the suburban seats because of the college educated vote.

25:22How is Trump standing right now?

25:25What's his favorability at? Well, before we dig into Trump's favorability, let's let's talk about

25:31the the Republican trickle as opposed to the Republican wave in 22.

25:35And our research after the fact in the election found that we looked at what

25:42state level Republicans were spending on ads, like what were their messages and what were

25:47federal Republicans spending on their ads from a message perspective.

25:50And they were inverted of what they should have been.

25:53All the state level Republicans were talking about inflation and economy and all the federal

25:57level Republicans were talking about crime and public safety.

26:00And it should have been the inverse.

26:01And I think one of the largest problems that Democrats have in this election is

26:06a trust in that they can actually do something right now.

26:10The bulk of their position on the ballot is built on the fact that people

26:15hate Donald Trump. And it's not built on the fact that people trust Republicans.

26:20And that is what we saw as a failure in 2022 midterms.

26:25We kept saying gas is expensive and groceries are expensive.

26:29And voters decided at the end of the day, their response was going to be

26:32no duh, Sherlock. But they offered no plan.

26:36And that's really what I see happening with the Democrats now.

26:39So so to answer the the Trump question, you know, we have them at 43

26:43percent favorable, 55 percent unfavorable.

26:46Trump is pretty much outside of his honeymoon coming off of running against one of

26:50the worst candidates ever in Kamala Harris and the second worst in Joe Biden in

26:552024. 24. This is a pretty normal number for Trump's favorability.

27:00And if you look at the intensity gap, which is the very unfavorable versus very

27:04favorable, that has been really stable over time.

27:07And it's a metric that we look at and say he's got a floor.

27:10So, yes, you may see some movement at the top line level on his image,

27:13but. But I would say that Trump's image is at a floor right now.

27:17The problem is that Republicans in Congress are at 41 percent favorable, 55 percent unfavorable.

27:23That's actually pretty good for Republicans in Congress.

27:25I mean, it is, but it also concerns me a little bit because we are

27:29the ones with the keys.

27:30No, of course, of course.

27:33And I want I think the floor is really important for Trump because Trump's floor

27:38kind of reminds me of Obama's floor in a certain way.

27:41Unfortunately, unlike Bush and unlike Biden, I don't know if Biden ever got to the

27:4420s. Bush definitely got to the 20s.

27:47Biden, if he didn't get to the 20s, got to the very low 30s at

27:50some points in the polling.

27:53Is you really think of this as the floor?

27:55It's not going to go below well below the high 30s, maybe like there's margins

27:59of error for every poll.

28:00So let's say 39, 38, whatever.

28:02But between 38 and 40, 42, 43, that's his basically floor is what you think.

28:07I believe so. And I also think that starting a couple of cycles ago, presidential

28:12approval doesn't necessarily equate to electoral victory or loss, because if that metric still had

28:20the predictive power that it had, say, 20, 40, 50 years ago, then, you know,

28:26had it been a Biden Trump election that that Trump should have won the national

28:30vote by 15 points. And we just know that that's asinine to think that that

28:35would have been the case.

28:36What I found interesting in your poll also was the economy was a lot lower

28:40in importance than I thought it would be.

28:44What are the most important issues for voters?

28:48Well, it's it's still there at towards the top, but threats to democracy, which is

28:54just a dog whistle for Trump arrangement syndrome, has now taken over the top.

29:00And they really if you look past and you can go to our website, the

29:03state is not up yet, but it will be later this week.

29:05This is an exclusive to you all to start CYGN .AL.

29:10You know, you'll you'll see even if you look at our February survey that inflation

29:14economy, threats to democracy, immigration kind of popping up here and there all just kind

29:19of flirt in the upper teens for who's going to be first, second and third.

29:24But when you dig deeper and this is why a top issue question can be

29:28helpful, but it's not directional as we have 76 percent of folks who say that

29:34they're either being careful with their spending, just getting by or struggling 76 percent.

29:41And Trump really needs to be able to close this gap between his economic promises

29:45and what people are feeling in their wallet.

29:47So, yes, they're not saying it's the most important.

29:49But when you ask them about it, there's some some red lights we need to

29:53pay attention to there. What can I and this is an answer, a dumb question,

29:56and I should ask a liberal this.

29:58But what is the threat to democracy?

30:01Like what what does that like?

30:03What is what is the threat?

30:06I don't I don't I really don't know.

30:08I think it's a catch all.

30:10For giving them a a better way to say, I hate Trump and he terrifies

30:16me. Now, immigration and border security is also ticking higher, which is that all Democrats

30:24now just angry about Minneapolis that are taking it higher?

30:27Or is it just Republicans who are wanting Trump to do more when it comes

30:30to immigration? You know, it's it's hard to say when when folks kind of sort

30:37in and out a point or two here and there month to month.

30:40But what I do know is when you ask voters who which party they trust

30:46on immigration, we're at 50 percent and Democrats are at 37 percent.

30:50So it's an R plus 13 issue.

30:54So. I, I don't think it's a big enough salient issue to make a huge

31:00difference in the election. And I also believe that it's one of the reasons that

31:05that Donald Trump made the change with, you know, putting our client, Senator Mark Wayne

31:09Mullen in there and moving Nome on is he knows the issue still needs to

31:14be addressed. I forget which poll it was that we did this year, but we

31:18asked somebody if it's still a problem and it's still very much a problem in

31:21the eyes of voters. He just needs somebody that's not dramatic to go in there

31:25and doesn't have a million dollar hairpiece budget.

31:30I could use one of those.

31:33OK, so one of the most concerning things from analysis from the poll that was

31:38like a glaring red light for Republicans that I saw from your poll is that

31:42one in three Americans say Republicans are out of touch compared to only one in

31:47five for Democrats. This is a similar result you see to a lot of other

31:53polls. It wasn't in your poll that I remember seeing it, but they say is

31:57Trump have your priorities and a lot of people say no.

32:00Focusing a lot on foreign policy, having cartoonish podcasters get a lot of attention, representing

32:08the Republican Party. What is it and maybe they didn't describe, but did did did

32:13did people say, here's what I wish they'd actually focus on and what are they

32:19kind of distracted with? We didn't ask those questions in this survey because we tend

32:24to touch on a lot of subjects, maybe a couple inches.

32:28Well, then what is your analysis taking down?

32:29But I think you have to look at that question in light of another question

32:33we ask, which is do which party has a clear and compelling vision or which

32:38party is just focused on opposing the other side?

32:41And if you look. headed through that lens, you have 28 percent of folks say

32:44Republicans have a clear, compelling vision.

32:46Only 11 percent say that about Democrats.

32:4927 percent say Republicans are mostly just focused on opposing Democrats rather than offering solutions,

32:54compared to 40 percent saying that Democrats only are opposing Trump.

32:58So this focused on opposing, not offering solutions number is way worse for Democrats.

33:05And that's where I go back to they may be on track for a trickle

33:10as opposed to a wave because they're saying all the things that people feel, but

33:15not connecting the last mile of actually there being trust that they could do something

33:20about it. Well, there's also less swing states than there used to be, too.

33:24I mean, there's not as many swing states as there was in 2018.

33:28No, I just find it fascinating, especially as you see in other polls, not yours,

33:33people say Trump's spending too much time on foreign policy, not enough on domestic policy.

33:37And, you know, there are a lot of concerns that people have over the over

33:40the currency of the country.

33:42All right. This is a question that has nothing to do with the election, but

33:46I am completely obsessed with how people feel about AI.

33:49I have been very much of the consensus that people want more regulations on the

33:55industry. They don't view it as the Internet.

33:57They don't view it as something that's just going to, you know, change the economy,

34:01but not shut it down.

34:02People, if you look at every sphere or almost every sphere that AI is touching

34:06right now, there's negative connotations around it.

34:08Does it make you smarter or critically think?

34:10Does it going to replace your job?

34:13Did it make, can it make errors around military decisions?

34:17How do people, Americans feel about AI right now?

34:22The Internet didn't come on us this quick.

34:25Like, we have to remember, it's only been a few years since the first JetGPT,

34:30which was maybe okay enough to write two paragraphs for you for a 10th grade

34:35writing assignment. So this technological change is drastic, but there was also nothing really physical

34:42necessary for the Internet to come in, unlike data centers.

34:48And you can't really separate out AI from data centers in the mind of voters

34:52at all, even though data centers have been around forever.

34:57And then you throw a partisan problem into this mix, which is now AI is

35:03viewed from a partisan lens.

35:04So strongly Republican voters are, say, AI is 42 % of net positive, 40 %

35:10of net negative, which is not something I would write home about and say, look

35:14at this phenomenal number. Yeah, that's not great.

35:15That's not great at all.

35:16It only gets worse from there.

35:17Soft Republicans, 50 % negative.

35:19Independents, 60 % negative. Overall, it's 56 % negative.

35:23We asked a question last month about AI and jobs.

35:27Will it create more jobs than it eliminates or will it eliminate more jobs than

35:30it creates? 62 % of folks said it was going to eliminate more jobs than

35:34it creates. In that survey, we also asked, what do data centers do?

35:39And I see this come out in focus groups all the time.

35:41You go down a conspiratorial rabbit hole real fast in a focus group when you

35:46bring up the topic of AI and data centers.

35:50And so if people are concerned that this is going to eliminate their jobs and

35:54they believe that it is a net negative for society, they're not seeing the positive

35:59benefits for them. They see these massive buildings going up that they see as a

36:04scourge on their neighborhood, their community, making their power more expensive.

36:09It's just, it's a really challenging issue landscape.

36:12And it's because it's come on so fast comparatively to other technological transformations.

36:18I mean, I was talking with somebody this week and basically said, imagine going back

36:23to an agrarian society and bringing in John Deere tractors.

36:28Like that is essentially the speed at which this has gone.

36:31We didn't go to horse drawn, you know, slightly motor powered.

36:37We went straight from the mule to the John Deere tractor with this AI issue.

36:42But you may be bringing up this data point, so I don't want to take

36:46it out of your mouth, but 67 % of folks said it's important for the

36:50U .S. to lead on AI.

36:51So like there are some positive aspects there of like, they know we need to

36:56do something about it. They're just absolutely terrified of it.

36:59Well, and here's what, okay, so this is, I'm so glad you brought up the

37:03strong Republican point because I was with members of the administration, top members of the

37:09administration, and I was saying that they really fundamentally believe that AI is going to

37:16create millions of jobs, that it's going to eliminate the national debt.

37:21It is so bullish that it sounds a lot like the, let's open the market

37:29to China people in the 90s.

37:31Like there is no downside.

37:32There is only upside. They're only selling you upside.

37:35And I have heard hopes and dreams before, and they have very rarely ever worked

37:39out. And what you're seeing at the state level among state Republicans is the total

37:48opposite. You know, for as much as the talking point among Republicans is, it's either

37:53California or Washington, D .C.

37:56deciding rules around AI, Florida, DeSantis is majorly cracking down on AI.

38:03Texas is doing it. Tennessee is doing it.

38:06Utah is going far. above and beyond, especially around children's protection, children's safety.

38:13So at the state level, you have a remarkably different Republican Party than you do

38:18at the Trump administration level.

38:20And I try desperately to tell Republican senators and congressmen, you need to attach some

38:27AI policy. The polling is not what you think it is.

38:30And you're not even asking it.

38:31And what the Democrats are doing is, hey, I mean, I had Ro Khanna on

38:35this podcast and Ro Khanna said we need a general wealth tax on AI to

38:40redistribute that money to voters.

38:42Now, I think that's just, you know, you're open to our socialism.

38:45That's just how socialism will come to you.

38:47It's not going to be like the nice kind of redistribution like Alaska or Norway.

38:51It's going to be really aggressive.

38:56But Republicans aren't even there.

38:59They're like the administration's making the making the rules around AI.

39:03This is the federal level, not the state level.

39:05We're just following through. And I think it's such a mistake.

39:08And I'm so glad you included this question.

39:12OK, let's talk about Iran, because it's obviously the news that's affecting oil prices, affecting

39:18everything. How are voters feeling about the Iran, the attacks on Iran?

39:25We have a right side up, barely 50 percent support, 45 percent opposition.

39:30Our survey went into the field.

39:33Let me look at my calendar here on Tuesday.

39:35So the strikes had been happening for multiple days and wall -to -wall coverage of

39:42the news. But there's a strong partisan divide, as you would expect.

39:47Strong Republicans, 95 percent support, all the way down to strong Democrats at not zero,

39:53but 13 percent support. And interestingly, there are more Democrats who support the strikes than

40:00Republicans who oppose it, which is how you end up with a net plus four

40:05support number. And there's a big gender gap here, too, a 14 -point gap between

40:11men and women, which part of that is there's a partisan gap between men and

40:15women. But this is larger than the partisan gap is.

40:19And then when we ask about some of the questions, trying to understand, you know,

40:23do Americans understand the threat that Iran posed?

40:27And related to the nuclear threat specifically, you know, we had 75 percent at least

40:34somewhat concerned, but only 28 percent extremely concerned.

40:37So the narrative of taking out the nukes or the nuclear threat that may come

40:43from Iran just kind of falls flat.

40:45People don't believe that that is a pressing threat.

40:47And then we also asked if people believe America has the readiness and strength in

40:52its military necessary. And only 57 percent of folks were extremely or very confident in

40:58our military readiness. I'll be very interested to know if this goes well over the

41:03next month. And we asked the same question again about military readiness, if that number

41:08rise out Iran's not China.

41:11Like, I mean, like, let's I mean, let's have a realistic moment, everybody.

41:15That's crazy. That is, I mean, people, I think, being overly pessimistic about our abilities.

41:20Now, I didn't ask you this question in my email, but I'm just wondering if

41:23you could jog your memory.

41:25How did this compare in your memory to Venezuela?

41:28Because that was flawless. Our operation in Venezuela was literally flawless.

41:32There was 10 out of 10, no mistakes made.

41:35Do you remember if voters were more positive about that?

41:40Only slightly. Oh, really? It's our survey.

41:43We have this amazing penitent signal to, like, put a poll in the field right

41:48as a massive world or national event occurs.

41:51This is the first one where we put it in the field slightly after it

41:54occurred. Yeah. OK. Well, I guess I think I imagine a lot of foreign policy

41:58stuff really does relate to a large portion.

42:02How do you feel about Trump?

42:03If you like Trump, you'd like the foreign policy.

42:04If you don't like it, we don't like the foreign policy.

42:06OK, two more quick questions that I want to get to.

42:09One is the SAVE Act.

42:11I get more emails from my listeners about the SAVE Act than anything else.

42:15They are on board. That's all they want to talk about.

42:19And voter ID is very popular with voters.

42:22How does the SAVE Act kind of work with voters?

42:25How do they feel about it?

42:26It blows my mind that the SAVE Act does not get passed and it's our

42:31people standing in the way, I really felt like Ken Paxton made a very selfless

42:37move in saying, yeah, I'll get out if you nuke the filibuster and pass the

42:40SAVE Act. And I don't know if that was necessarily a I'm selflessly sacrificing myself

42:46to get the SAVE Act passed or it was I'm going to call your bluff,

42:51Senator Thin, on this issue because it has 58 percent support independence.

42:57The numbers basically in that same spot, the intensity behind the support is incredibly strong,

43:04even among independents. It's got 29 percent support among soft Democrats, people who are unsure

43:11on the on the generic ballot.

43:13So the key group that Republicans need to win in the midterms are 67 percent

43:19support of the SAVE Act.

43:21So this is a super popular.

43:23There's no reason, there's nothing that should stop the SAVE Act from passing.

43:28Yes. Like, I mean, yeah, obviously, the only thing stopping us is our politicians.

43:33But I'm talking as far as I'm yeah, because it makes no sense because.

43:37I mean, all the fear that women who get married can't get to vote.

43:42I mean, it's nonsensical. It breaks apart.

43:44It falls apart in five seconds flat.

43:46And it is Republicans from red states who are the ones who are opposing this

43:51this thing. It's quite crazy.

43:53And it's the number one thing my voters are interested in and ask about.

43:56And why isn't this passing?

43:58OK, one other final question, because it comes to a time where Democrats are really

44:04searching. They're not in the middle of it.

44:06They are towards the end, I would say, of searching for their identity that they're

44:10going to lead to 2028.

44:11And it is full blown tax the rich corporations, economic populism.

44:16They're going to quadruple down it.

44:18You know, they're saying woke is dead, which it's really not.

44:21But woke is dead. We're all about economic populism now.

44:23How are voters feeling about big companies, big corporations going into the midterms with this

44:31understanding that Democrats are really looking at economic populism as their as their Trojan horse

44:35to victory? Since I've numbered your audience to death, I'll start with a story.

44:40I was doing focus groups in January for a corporate client.

44:44And when you do focus groups, what makes a good focus group is what makes

44:48a good poll. You've got a representative group of whoever you're trying to understand in

44:52the sample. And you get something called a recruitment grid.

44:56And so it's literally like this big 11 by 17 printout of, you know, Jane

45:00is this and she is a super strong Republican and pro -Trump.

45:04And like however she answered all the questions, our most Republican woman in this particular

45:09group that I was moderating started a sentence with this.

45:13Well, you know, now that we're in a post -capitalist society and I had to

45:18go back and look at the grid and I'm like, did I get the wrong

45:20person here that just said that?

45:21And I'm like, nope, I see her name tag and I see her response here.

45:24And it really I had been feeling this for a while among Republican voters that

45:29I grew up and you probably grew up where politics was like this line of

45:35ideology. And now we're a circle of ideology and there is a bipartisan push for

45:42this populism where you've got 58 percent of folks saying regulations are necessary to protect

45:48workers and consumers. And the way we frame this question was that it's either to

45:54protect that or that they create unnecessary burden.

45:57So those were your two response options with intensity involved in them.

46:01Listen to this strong Republicans, 45 percent necessary, 48 percent burdensome.

46:06Like, do I even need to go on with the other aspects of the ideology?

46:11Because ideology is now a circle, not a spectrum.

46:16And then we ask people, do you trust corporate intentions?

46:19Seventy nine percent distrust corporations intentions.

46:23We asked about their motives.

46:24Eighty seven percent have said corporations are mainly looking out for their own profits, including

46:3077 percent of our strongest Republicans.

46:33And then we we broke this out into, you know, do health insurance companies deny

46:37claims for profit? That's 90 percent of people believe that our pharmaceutical companies maximizing profits

46:44are making money to fund research.

46:45Eighty two percent say it's to it's a profit motive.

46:48You know, our energy companies taking advantage of consumers.

46:52Sixty nine percent said yes.

46:53Like this this Republican traditional pro -business deregulation brand is really colliding with the public

46:59that is overwhelmingly distrustful of corporations.

47:02And they think that you are blowing my mind around because when Trump went to

47:08Congress and asked for the credit card cap and Republicans said, I think it was

47:13a Republican senator said, stop with this economic upon this populist shit.

47:18And Trump has always had a better finger on the pulse of what the people

47:22want than the Republican Party as a whole.

47:26And it's too such. I have felt this.

47:28I have felt that there's this level of distrust.

47:31And one day I was talking to one of my friends who's I mean, she

47:33is like Miss Capitalism USA businesses should have no regulations.

47:38And she said to me, you know, I get a funny feeling that there's so

47:42much hatred towards corporations. Luigi Mangione is going to get off.

47:46It's going to be to that degree of this is how much we hate corporations

47:53right now. And that is and that is why in this weird sense that kind

48:00of Trump since 2016, especially in 2016, kind of showed the light and very few

48:05Republicans ever followed. And it will be very curious in my mind if Steve Bannon

48:11runs for president on a pro economic populist position.

48:16I haven't talked to Stephen in a very long time, but there are rumors.

48:19I can I tell you a quick, quick story really quickly.

48:21I know we have to go, but it's about it's about listening to people, ordinary

48:26Americans do the do the survey.

48:29It was an old in 2015.

48:31I got invited to it and it was the Republicans running for president.

48:35And they were showing one by one is Rand Paul and it was Donald Trump.

48:38And then they brought up Ted Cruz.

48:40And this one woman diehard Republican primary voter said, I don't know what it is

48:45about him, but I would not never let him around my children.

48:48And I was like, he doesn't have a prayer.

48:50I literally says that he doesn't have a prayer winning this election.

48:55If that's your natural instinct.

48:56These focus groups are so fascinating for that reason.

48:59They're so interesting hearing people's raw take on stuff.

49:02Well, remember this. And we.

49:04can end on this note.

49:05There were a lot of Trump 24, Mom Donnie 25 voters, and that voter base

49:10is only going to grow.

49:12Where can people go to read more about Signal, what you guys do?

49:15It's such a great polling company.

49:17You do fantastic work. Yeah, and people only get to see about 3 % of

49:23the work we do is public.

49:24The other 97 % are for corporations and candidates and otherwise.

49:32But our website is cygn .al, and we've got video clips and the like.

49:37And shoot us a note if you're not seeing something that we should cover that

49:41would be fascinating to put in our next survey.

49:44Thank you so much for coming to this podcast.

49:46I really appreciate it. Check out Signal.

49:48Fantastic work. Thank you so much.

49:50Thanks, Ryan. Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who

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54:00Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment.

54:01If you want a part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email me ryan at

54:04numbersgamepodcast .com. That's ryan at numbers, plural numbers, gamepodcast .com.

54:09This first question comes from Ryan.

54:10He says, not a true Ask Me Anything, but I did want to point out

54:13that on your list of books you're reading, you do not mention Buck Sexton's book.

54:17Have to keep him in mind.

54:18The funny thing is that Buck texted my dad and told him about his book

54:24and he didn't reach out to me and I didn't know it was coming out

54:27until it already came out.

54:29So I am very behind on my reading.

54:31I get very little time to read.

54:32Buck's book will get on my reading list.

54:34I will get to it.

54:35I'm sure it's a great book.

54:36I haven't read it yet.

54:38He didn't even send me a free copy, you would think.

54:40But no, it doesn't matter.

54:41It's okay. I'll buy my version.

54:42I'm sure it's really good.

54:44He said, perhaps you've already read it or working through it.

54:46Some chapters are a little long, so it's tough to consume for a busy person.

54:49Content is awesome. Might not be something you can critically review.

54:55I would be honest with people about what I learned.

54:58Here's the problem with political reading political books.

55:02Because they're dated, unlike history books, which you can learn a lot from, the New

55:07York book I'm learning a lot from, I kind of know a lot of the

55:12statistics already. Douglas Murray's book, which is great, his last few books, I kind of

55:17knew almost all the information by the time I was reading it.

55:21It was kind of dated.

55:22So that's something about political books for me.

55:25I love campaign trail books.

55:27I've read every 2024, every 2020, every 2016 book that there is to read.

55:31I love a campaign book.

55:32But I kind of know all this stuff about statistics, or most of the time.

55:36Sometimes I learn stuff. Love your show.

55:38Appreciate your take on Iran.

55:40I was torn as well.

55:41I'm struggling now. Given all that they've done for 40 -plus years, the rationale is

55:44too muddy. Keep up the great work.

55:46Thank you so much, Ryan.

55:47I appreciate that. Last question for the podcast today comes from Mary.

55:50She says, wondering if you or anyone else has done analysis on the current flight

55:54from blue states to red states and how it compares to white flight from the

55:5760s and 70s of people fleeing East Germany, Cuba, North Korea to South Korea.

56:03Republicans are trying to win back these cities, or you're going to continue to see

56:07a spiral of despair and probably continue to elect these socialist nutjobs.

56:11Mary. So, yeah, the New York Times, of all places, did a fantastic write -up

56:15about people fleeing and where they moved to.

56:18And they not only looked at states, but they looked at counties.

56:24And it is a great assortment going on.

56:28It's kind of why Republicans used to have city council seats or state legislative seats

56:34like in Milwaukee, and they don't anymore because blue counties attract now blue voters and

56:41red counties attract red voters.

56:43That's why you're seeing so many Republicans from California going to Denton and Collin County,

56:49Texas, and not Dallas County proper.

56:52Maybe there's a few because there's like one nice Republican neighborhood in Dallas.

56:55But they're going to the suburbs or in Denton and Collin County that are Republican.

57:00And I think you're probably seeing the same thing for Republicans from New York and

57:04New Jersey going to Florida.

57:06It's not everyone going to Florida and jacking up the Republican administration is not just

57:12organically, you know, the Republican administration being jacked up, or rather, is not just native

57:17Floridians. It's a lot of people moving there who are Republican.

57:22That being said, I wish that there was a conversation happening among Republicans who are

57:26moving and saying to them, you know, guys, a couple of you people more to

57:30Florida, go to Pennsylvania, go to North Carolina, start padding those other swing states, go

57:34to Georgia, don't give it all to Florida.

57:36But the New York Times article on this, it's a very, it's an interactive graphic.

57:40It's really, really good. They do a better job describing that.

57:42I can really look up who's moving what and where.

57:46So check that out. All right, guys, that's this episode of this podcast.

57:50Thank you so much for listening.

57:51If you like this episode and you like this podcast, please like and subscribe on

57:54the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcasts.

57:56Give me a five star review.

57:57It does help promote the podcast.

57:59And please subscribe on YouTube.

58:01I will talk to you guys on Wednesday.

58:03Have a great day. This is Dr.

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It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind the Midterms: EXCLUSIVE Look at Poll on Trump, AI Fears, and Voter Populism