The Manosphere Report

0:00This is an iHeart Podcast.

0:02Guaranteed human. If you're feeling off, fatigue, mood changes, skin shifts, yet your labs say

0:09everything's normal, you're not alone.

0:11Meet Oestra from Inner Balance, the first all -in -one prescription -strength bioidentical hormone cream

0:17that's natural and effective and only takes one drop 10 seconds a day.

0:22Oestra replaces five to six products women typically use to treat symptoms and is third

0:27-party tested to ensure the highest quality.

0:30Visit innerbalance .com today to start feeling like yourself again.

0:34That's innerbalance .com. Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those

0:39who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi -asset portfolio of stocks,

0:43bonds, options, crypto, and now generated assets, which allow you to turn any idea into

0:48an investable index with AI.

0:50It all starts with your prompt.

0:51From renewable energy companies with high free cashflow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20

0:56% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to

1:00work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one -of -a -kind index, and lets

1:04you backtest it against the S &P 500.

1:06Then you can invest in a few clicks.

1:08Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable, and based on your thesis,

1:14not someone else's. Go to public .com slash podcast and earn an uncapped 1 %

1:18bonus when you transfer your portfolio.

1:20That's public .com slash podcast.

1:22Paid for by Public Investing.

1:23Brokerage services by Open to the Public Investing, Inc.

1:24Member FINRA and SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors, LLC, SEC Registered Advisor.

1:29Generated assets is an interactive analysis tool.

1:30Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice.

1:33Complete disclosures available at public .com slash disclosures.

1:36Who doesn't love warm, carby comfort?

1:38Satisfying sandwiches, loaded bagels, rich mac and cheese.

1:41Crave -worthy and smart, Hero Bread's loaves, bagels, and noodles have just 0 to 5

1:45gram snack carbs, 0 gram sugar, and up to 19 grams of protein, and 32

1:49grams of fiber per serving.

1:51Hero Bread bakes with heart -healthy olive oil and delivers a soft, fluffy, flavorful experience

1:55you love. Shop now on Hero .co.

1:58Use code IHEART for 10 % off.

2:00That's Hero .co. Per serving not a low -calorie food.

2:03Some products contain allulose. See nutrition info on Hero .co for sodium and sugar content.

2:06You know what quality feels like.

2:08You can see it in the way a fabric moves, recognize it in a flawless

2:12fit, and appreciate it in the details that make our styles unique.

2:16It's the standard Coldwater Creek has honored for over 40 years, derived from a rich

2:21Mountain West heritage, and designed for today in styles that are distinctively Coldwater Creek.

2:27For a wardrobe you can count on season after season, visit coldwatercreek .com, shop new

2:32arrivals, and save 15 % on purchases $75 or more with code IHEART.

2:40Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Grudusky.

2:42Thank you guys for being here.

2:43We have an exciting episode today.

2:44We're doing an interview about a new poll that's out in the Virginia's election, both

2:49on the favorability of the governor, as well as the referendum to redistrict that entire

2:54state into multiple new Democratic districts.

2:56That's very interesting. We have the pollster who was more accurate than any other one

3:00during the 2025 election. So very interested to hear what he has to say about

3:05why Spamburger's favorability ratings seem to be going down, as well as how close really

3:10is it for this referendum on new Democratic districts.

3:13But before we get to that, let's talk about some immigration news from the White

3:17House. First, a story from NPR about the number of immigrants being processed by USCIS

3:22for naturalization, meaning citizenship. It has hit a record low since the organization began taking

3:29totals back in 2022. I preface this.

3:32It's odd that it's only been 2022 since they started taking this kind of data.

3:37I feel like it should be going on a lot longer.

3:40This is the story from NPR.

3:41Quote, During the first few months of the Trump's second term, the administration approved a

3:45record high number of naturalizations.

3:47At the peak of 2025, 88 ,488 applications were approved in one month, the largest

3:55number since the USCIS began tracking month -to -month naturalization since 2022.

3:59But in January of this year, that number dipped to 32 ,862, the lowest since

4:06USCIS began tracking that data.

4:08The decrease in approvals for citizenship comes among fluctuations in those applying for naturalization.

4:14At the peak of 2025, 169 ,000 people applied to be naturalized in October.

4:19The very next month, only 41 ,000 people applied, the lowest number of the year.

4:24The data basically finds that 80 ,000 to 100 ,000 people were applying per month,

4:30with 60 ,000 to 80 ,000 being successfully processed.

4:33That was a general, there's been a general decline in that number, even applying for

4:39citizenship. First, the fact that we're processing 60 ,000 to 80 ,000 people per month

4:45for citizenship is truly insane.

4:48That's almost a million per year.

4:50And think about how close the last few presidential elections have been, you know, not

4:56even just in 2024 and 2020, go back to 2000.

4:59I mean, it's really been close elections, with the exception of the Obama elections.

5:04It's been close elections for quite some time, for two decades.

5:07And given that immigrants vote 70, 30 for Democrats, imagine how much more Republicans would

5:16likely have won, have Barbara Jordan done her immigration reform in the 90s that Clinton

5:21was supportive of. And it.

5:22was Republicans that killed wanting to reduce legal immigration.

5:26Okay, that's just a little side note, a little where my brain went.

5:30What the data suggests, though, is that a lot of people who applied when President

5:34Trump was first, you know, got into the office, they had qualified for some time,

5:39but they were not ambitious to do it.

5:41And then the fact that Trump was campaigning on mass deportation, they actually got their

5:44stuff together and they actually applied, even though they qualified for some time.

5:48But then Trump's crackdowns on immigration and the pause of immigration from 39 countries, that

5:54number drastically decreased. So that was very interesting.

5:58And speaking of crackdowns on immigration, Cato Institute, that's a libertarian organization in D .C.,

6:05which they seek to turn the United States into Mumbai.

6:08They published a new devastating information from their perspective, but a huge win for America

6:15on immigration. David Beer is his name.

6:18He's the reporter from the Cato Institute.

6:20I used to work with his wife.

6:22Ironically, she was a very, very lovely person.

6:25His study, though, details how Trump has done more crackdowns of legal immigration instead of

6:30illegal immigration. Okay, now this is hilarious how he reports this data, because data can

6:38just be construed in so many different ways and just manipulated.

6:42And Cato Institute on immigration, more than anything else, loves, loves to warp data.

6:48And this is a perfect example of how they completely take data, make it sound

6:53whatever they want to sound it like and just destroy it.

6:56Okay. So they credit Biden with cracking down on illegal border crossings, which, you know,

7:03hilarious. Part of the reason is because they said that at the end of Biden's

7:07term, he had decreased illegal immigration crossings from the peak at his term.

7:14Okay, but they don't cite the fact that he had multiple different pathways for illegal

7:20aliens to gain access to the United States that they would have not lawfully had

7:25had he not just made them up like CHNV and the one app and all

7:29these other things. So they weren't swarming the border, but they were still making their

7:33way into the country. It's very manipulative how they're digesting this data, but this is

7:39exactly what the open borders lobby always likes to reimagine.

7:42You know, they like to rewrite history that Biden was the one who was really

7:47cracking down on immigration and it was Democrats who were really on board with it.

7:52Obviously, it's much lower under Trump.

7:54In October 2024, right before the election, this is when the Biden administration was like,

7:59hey, we got to make things look good so Kamala can win.

8:02They were releasing 10 ,000 illegal aliens who were crossing into the interior of the

8:08United States per month. And that's when he wanted to make things seem like they

8:13were under control. Do you know when he crossed the border during Trump's worst month

8:18of his second term? 26.

8:2110 ,000 went at its best down to 26.

8:25It's just cartoonish. Like the Kato Institute's reframing of history is laughable.

8:31We all live through this.

8:32We all remember it. OK, the number of known gotaways under Trump, those are people

8:37who evade border patrol and get into the interior of the country.

8:39It was about 2 ,000 illegal aliens per month under Biden.

8:44Once again, this is Biden at his best.

8:46This is right before the election.

8:48It was 17 ,000 per month.

8:51And the number of asylum seekers entering the U .S.

8:53was nearly 40 ,000 per month under the Biden administration.

9:00Guess how much it was under Trump?

9:0330, not 30 ,000, 30, 40 ,000 to 30.

9:10I need to take a second and remind people, if you, like the majority of

9:16people who voted in the last election or the plurality, because you got 49 .8

9:19% of the vote or whatever the hell it was, if you are one of

9:23those people who have really been down on Republicans and Trump, even though you voted

9:27for him and you felt disappointed and you feel like, oh, I disagree with this

9:31and I disagree with that.

9:31And I don't love this and I don't love that.

9:33Totally get it. Been with you on a million times.

9:35Been said disappointed on this issue or that issue.

9:37I feel your frustration. However, it is important in these moments to contextualize that we

9:46were being invaded under Joe Biden.

9:50These are his best numbers I'm working with.

9:53I'm not talking about when it was a million crossing the border in one like

9:58like you saw the lines and the hordes of people.

10:00I'm not talking about that.

10:01I'm saying when Uncle Joe was really trying to get his, you know, his brain

10:06cells scratching and a fire started, I'm giving those best numbers out.

10:11And under those best numbers, it's horrific.

10:13Donald Trump and the Republican Congress that gave him that budget for CBP and for

10:20ICE enforcement saved us from an invasion that was transforming our country.

10:25I need to put that in context because so often you get mad or I

10:30get mad at this thing or that thing and we lose context for what happened

10:33in the very recent past.

10:35And you need to be reminded because I need to be reminded.

10:37OK, here's where Cato's data actually gets useful and it's not all manipulated garbage.

10:42The number of immigrants coming from this country was about 60 ,000 per month.

10:47That's legally that number has dropped.

10:50I'm I'm casa. to 30 ,000 per month.

10:53The number of foreign students who have come to the United States halved during the

10:57last summer. It's gone up a little bit.

10:59It's had a little bit of recovery, but it halved during the first summer of

11:03the Trump administration. The number of H -1B applicants, that's, remember, Trump implemented a $100

11:10,000 fee per new applicant.

11:12That has fallen by 25%.

11:15Those people are in direct competition for the same white -collar jobs that AI is

11:20taking. It's good that we don't have that many people and anyone's applying.

11:23They are not all geniuses.

11:25This is not all Einsteins.

11:26Everything you hear from the media on H -1Bs is utterly manipulated, and it's not

11:31true. Most of them have their visa stapled to a tech company to do relatively

11:37low information work that can be done by anybody, especially an American.

11:41They estimate, Cato estimates, the overall reduction in legal immigration during Trump's first year in

11:48office was 130 ,000. This is a good thing.

11:53Now, they argue, like, oh, Trump cracked down on legal immigration more than illegal immigration.

11:57They're manipulating the Biden numbers.

11:59It's just not true. If Kamala was president, we'd be back at the peak.

12:02It's all fake and phony.

12:03And also, they didn't include CHNB.

12:06They don't include the 1 -app.

12:07They don't include all the other ways that he flew people in the country.

12:09It's all nonsense. But it's good that he is cracking down on legal immigration, too.

12:15That is actually a good thing.

12:17And you have to hand it sometimes to Trump and the congressional Republicans that when

12:23they deliver on something, they do deliver.

12:25And he's delivered on that.

12:26Okay. Let's talk Virginia. The referendum on the Virginia redistricting is coming up fast.

12:33Over a million people have voted.

12:36Big question is how close is it?

12:38Now, remember, Spanberger had an election victory like no other.

12:41She won by over 15 points.

12:43Very popular going in. She ran as a quote -unquote moderate.

12:46Some of the media are still calling her a moderate, which is, I mean, you

12:50have to be like Charlie Baker, the former governor of Massachusetts who basically gave in

12:55to Democrats on everything in order to be called a moderate Republican.

12:59And for a Democrat, you just have to smile while doing an extremist thing for

13:04her to be a Democrat.

13:04It's very irritating. Anyway, she's not a moderate.

13:07She's radical. And the polling has been pretty consistent that the vote to change it

13:14has been, you know, yes, but they've changed the districts have been pro, yes, pro

13:18change of districts by nine points.

13:20That's what the Washington Post Scholars poll found.

13:23It was a nine -point favorability towards redistricting.

13:25But they interestingly also found that Spanberger's personal approval ratings after this massive landslide victory

13:31are in the toilet, that her support is decreasing very rapidly.

13:37Now, I told you guys, I've spoken to Democratic consultants.

13:40Spanberger was gearing up for a presidential run right after winning the governor's office.

13:44She's been eyeing a higher national ticket.

13:48It would be very bad for her for two things.

13:51One, for this referendum to fail.

13:52And two, for her poll numbers to go so low that she then can't run

13:57for president and so disliked in her own state.

14:01So far, it looks like the polling still suggests that this is going to pass.

14:05But how supportive she is in the home state is up for grabs.

14:09And remember, there is another election next year for the Virginia State Senate where Democrats

14:15have a one -seat majority.

14:17If she is personally unpopular throughout the state, a local election could become a referendum

14:22on her rather than a referendum on Trump.

14:25Who knows? That's still a year away.

14:26We'll still see. With me today is Chaz Nadekomb.

14:29He is the founder of, sorry, the executive director of State Navigate.

14:34It's a website you probably haven't heard.

14:36It's obviously not as famous as, you know, RealClearPolitics.

14:38However, I give them immense kudos and why I want them on the podcast is

14:43that they did a poll into the Virginia governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general's race

14:48last year and they nailed it.

14:51They nailed it perfectly, right?

14:53So I hold them in a very high regard as being accurate.

14:56I want to give you guys the most accurate polling.

14:58We're going to have him talk about what's going on, Virginia, how close it is,

15:02and what's going on with Spamburger.

15:03And if people are having buyer's remorse, that's coming up next.

15:08If you're feeling off, fatigue, mood changes, skin shifts, yet your labs say everything's normal,

15:14you're not alone. Meet Oestra from Interbalance, the first all -in -one prescription strength bioidentical

15:20hormone cream that's natural and effective and only takes one drop 10 seconds a day.

15:26Oestra replaces five to six products women typically use to treat symptoms and is third

15:31-party tested to ensure the highest quality.

15:34Visit interbalance .com today to start feeling like yourself again.

15:38That's interbalance .com. Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those

15:43who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi -asset portfolio of stocks,

15:48bonds, options, crypto, and now generated assets, which allow you to turn any idea into

15:52an investable index with AI.

15:54It all starts with your prompt, from renewable energy companies with high free cash flow

15:58to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20 % year over year.

16:02You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work.

16:05It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one -of -a -kind index, and lets you

16:08backtest it against the S &P 500.

16:10Then you can invest in a few clicks.

16:12Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis.

16:18not someone else's. Go to public .com slash podcast and earn an uncapped 1 %

16:22bonus when you transfer your portfolio.

16:24That's public .com slash podcast.

16:26Paid for by Public Investing.

16:27Brokered services by Open to the Public Investing, Inc.

16:29Member FINRA and SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors, LLC, SEC Registered Advisor.

16:33Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool.

16:34Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice.

16:37Complete disclosures available at public .com slash disclosures.

16:40Love bread, baked goods and pasta, but not the way they make you feel?

16:44What if I told you there are macro -friendly options that don't taste like sawdust

16:47and sadness? Satisfying sandwiches, fully loaded bagels, noodles that can stand up to your favorite

16:52chunky sauces. All delicious. Crave -worthy and smart, each serving of Hero Bread has up

16:57to 19 grams of protein and 32 grams of fiber, and just 0 to 5

17:02grams net carbs and 0 grams sugar.

17:04Hero Bread bakes with heart -healthy olive oil and delivers the soft, fluffy, flavorful experience

17:09you love. Breakfast burritos, schmear -loaded bagels, real mac and cheese.

17:13Hero Bread bakes loaves, bagels and tortillas that don't taste or feel like cardboard.

17:17Noodles that don't fall apart in hearty sauces.

17:20Plus, limited edition small batch bakes like the 2 grams net carb Hero Croissant or

17:241 gram net carb Hero Cheddar Biscuit, handmade in a Sonoma -based French bakery.

17:29Shop now on Hero .co.

17:31Use code IHEART for 10 % off.

17:33That's Hero .co. Per serving, not a low -calorie food.

17:36Some products contain allulose. See nutrition info on Hero .co over sodium and sugar content.

17:40You know what quality feels like.

17:43You can see it in the way a fabric moves, recognize it in a flawless

17:46fit, and appreciate it in the details that make our styles unique.

17:50It's the standard Coldwater Creek has honored for over 40 years, derived from a rich

17:55Mountain West heritage, and designed for today in styles that are distinctively Coldwater Creek.

18:01For a wardrobe you can count on season after season, visit ColdwaterCreek .com.

18:06Shop new arrivals and save 15 % on purchases $75 or more with code IHEART.

18:12With me on today's episode is Chaz Nuttikome.

18:15He is the executive director of statenavigate .com, a website I read frequently.

18:19Before we begin, Chaz, I'm going to give you your flowers as the kids say,

18:23and say, you know, your polling in 2025 was the most credible and the best

18:28for not only governor, but down the ballot.

18:31So congratulations on all your work you've done.

18:34How do you just, I want my audience to know, how do you work with

18:39a poll to try to find that it's accurate, that the sample size is accurate,

18:43and how do you try to, you know, I want people to have confidence in

18:45polling institutions. So how do you try to make sure your polling is the most

18:49accurate? Yeah, absolutely. So, I mean, and we'll get into the poll that we did

18:55in a bit, but I put this actually at the top of the poll article,

18:59and it was with more in reference to the governor approval than what I've seen

19:06on Twitter today. But as soon as they like you, make them unlike you, right?

19:10You know, last year, Dems were very, very excited about the poll because, you know,

19:15a lot of people had Abigail Spanberger winning the governor race by like mid to

19:20high single digits, maybe like 10 to 12 points on the high end.

19:24We had her up 13.

19:26But then, you know, a lot of polls mainly, I think the main focus became

19:29the attorney general race where, you know, Jason Mouris led every single poll until, you

19:34know, for maybe two or three weeks until ours.

19:38And, you know, and then also the final one we did, we did two Virginia

19:43statewide surveys. We also did some House Delegate surveys.

19:47And, you know, the reason why we beat the rest of the pack is because

19:51in 2024, what worked really well for pollsters was waiting your poll to 2020, the

20:01last presidential election. And they were still off, but they just pretty much weren't accounting

20:06for the electorate being maybe like a point redder, right?

20:11So, now actually in Pennsylvania, they actually did pretty well on when we talk about

20:15the averages and everything. And I think maybe in some of these other swing states,

20:20definitely got Arizona, right? So, you know, but maybe general audience or just kind of

20:26your generic person. What do you do differently?

20:29Yeah. Oh, so what do we do differently?

20:32You know, so what we did differently is we didn't wait to 2024.

20:36So, I know Virginia, I've grew up here all my life and I've studied Virginia

20:39history. And I know that in every single gubernatorial election, since we have no longer

20:45been a, you know, Southern Democratic dominant one party state, that the party outside of

20:53the White House, because we have gubernatorial elections the first year into a presidency, that

20:58November, right, always has a turnout advantage, always happens.

21:02Even 2013, you know, like since 1977, we've elected a governor opposite of the incumbent

21:11White House party besides 2013.

21:15And the reason why 2013 was an exception where Terry McAuliffe, a Democrat, won while

21:21Obama was in the White House.

21:22Was the Libertarian. The Libertarian.

21:25But that electorate definitely still voted for Mitt Romney the year prior, right?

21:29Republicans had a turnout advantage, right?

21:31Obama won Virginia by like three and Terry McAuliffe wanted by like two even, right?

21:35Right. So, just knowing that, I was like, and I told people, you know, like

21:42this is a mistake to wait until 2024.

21:46And, uh, so, you know, I was kind of like, um, So you pegged it

21:49to the left is what you're saying.

21:51Yeah. Yeah. So, uh, it's, it's not like we waited to an individual election, right?

21:55It's not like I looked at 2024 and thought, okay, instead of Harris plus six,

21:59it's going to be like Harris plus, uh, maybe nine or 10, which is what

22:03I think our poll had actually waited on party ID.

22:06Um, which I think was, it had kind of been phasing out, uh, when we

22:11talk about like awaiting decisions, cause that's going to be like the biggest thing that,

22:14that changes your poll. Right.

22:16Is, you know, we can definitely demographics is a big part.

22:18I think that was a big part in 2016, but a lot of it really

22:21now is just party ID.

22:22Um, so we looked at recent Virginia elections using data from catalyst, um, which is

22:28a sort of them data group.

22:30Um, but they are very good at their job.

22:32They're good at their job.

22:33Regardless. Um, and AP vocast as well.

22:36Um, cause they have a raw respondent file that is great.

22:39So, um, you know, our team was able to figure out what is the party

22:43ID in each of those elections.

22:45And how does it compare to another great indicator of how national elections goes, which

22:50is the Gallup quarterly party ID.

22:53Mm hmm. So in Q3, 2024, the national, uh, Gallup quarterly party ID was R

23:01plus one, uh, Q3 2025 is D plus seven.

23:04So that's an eight point swing.

23:06Um, so, but you can't just like, okay, let's, let's make it a plus a,

23:12I mean, I don't remember what it was in 2024.

23:14Um, you know, it's, it's, it's in our second survey when I talked about this.

23:18Um, but either way, um, you know, we waited by party ID and long story

23:22short. Um, and I think our, um, I think our second survey when we waited

23:28by and also leaned party ID, this is, this is another thing people are talking

23:33about, well, Yunkin won independence by nine and the no campaign is winning independence by

23:3724. We'll get in the poll here in a bit.

23:40Well, um, there's a difference between lean party ID and regular party ID leaned means

23:45after you get, you know, uh, the, your first time you ask people, okay, which

23:50party you identify with Republican, Democrat, independent, right?

23:53You ask the independence, okay, which party do you lean toward?

23:57And then you count that for their respective parties.

23:59So about one in 10 Virginians pretty much ballpark, um, make up the Virginia electorate

24:05at every year, regardless of the environment.

24:07So let's, let's actually get to the poll then.

24:09So what did your poll find when it came to the vote?

24:12Yes or no for the redistrict day?

24:14Yeah. So yes, it's a five.

24:16Um, and, uh, the governor's approval is even, um, that is a little bit worse.

24:21So what's the margin of error?

24:23Can I ask you? Oh, I believe it's like what?

24:26Three, three point something. Uh, I have it here.

24:30Uh, margin of error, 3 .7.

24:33Okay. So it's right around the margin of error too.

24:36It's a very tight election.

24:37It's tighter. I'm sorry. I said, absolutely.

24:41Yeah. So it's tighter than a lot of other pollsters have or WAPO had at

24:44nine. What? WAPO had the referendum up five.

24:48Pretty much this poll matches WAPO.

24:50I mean, I'm talking of registered voters.

24:52That's what I think of the difference.

24:53We're not likely, but registered.

24:54And I think among the registered voters.

24:56This is this. Well, so they have a LV model that had it up five.

24:59Right. Ours is also a LV model.

25:01Okay. My mistake on that.

25:03What are the biggest defections from the Spamberger coalition to the no?

25:08Cause that's a pretty sizable chunk that's moving away.

25:11And so what, who are those people?

25:14Right. Um, so, you know, there's, there's a few things here.

25:18Um, the, the lean party ID we have is bluer than what we weighed to

25:22in 2025. Um, lean party ID.

25:24Yes. Lean party ID, uh, was about, I think, uh, uh, I, uh, I think

25:31it was 49, uh, to 40, uh, to, uh, 10, uh, or no, no, uh,

25:3811. No, cause it was plus eight.

25:41I don't remember either way.

25:42It was plus eight. Okay.

25:44Uh, so wait, let me just break it down.

25:46Democrat plus eight in 2025.

25:48What do you have the democratic, uh, the turnout total in this election?

25:52Well, not turnout total, but partisan, partisan.

25:5611. And the reason why is so in Q4, the weighted party or the, uh,

26:02the Gallup quarterly party ID went up to plus eight and now it is plus,

26:07it is now plus 10.

26:08Um, so pretty much when you take the Gallup quarterly party ID and use the

26:12same methodology that we did in the second survey, you would get like plus 11.

26:17Um, so that's what we have.

26:20Just a very, very democratic turn, a party based basically in turnout.

26:25So that's. It's a base turnout election.

26:27Yes. The, the, the no vote is doing substantially better when you consider how, how

26:32democratic it is. What are the groups that are really, that were part of Spamberger's

26:36coalition that are saying no to this?

26:38High income voters are a big one.

26:40So this was a big thing.

26:41Um, pretty much all I think of the people who voted for Abigail Spamberger, um,

26:47but voted for, uh, Jason Mieris, um, uh, in 2025, right.

26:53There is like what, uh, nine point difference, something like that.

26:57Um, all of those voters are voting.

26:59No, if they, if they are showing up, they're voting.

27:02Okay. Um, you know, probably 90 to 95 % at least are voting now.

27:08Um, so that is a big thing, you know, uh, and you can see this

27:12in the article with poll Yeah, it's powerful.

27:13I joined Battleground. There they are a lots of options I want to tweet.

27:13Um, I think it's like an 11 point swing among voters who make, um, $150

27:20,000 or more. I think it's, uh, what, a hundred or it's a 10 point

27:27swing. Uh, let's see here.

27:30Uh, 10, 10 and a half point swing, uh, from voters who make 50 to

27:35150 ,000. Um, so, you know, it's really wealthy voters, um, they're doing it.

27:42Um, and, and that was a big part of the people who were, you know,

27:47voting for Abigail Spanberger were voting for Jason Mieras, uh, cause he didn't like, you

27:51know, Jay Jones's scandals and everything that had happened or dropped, I would say, um,

27:56off of drop, uh, in the first week of October, right.

28:00Um, you know, Western Chesterfield, also Henrico, Western Henrico, um, but not as strongly because

28:06that was Abigail Spanberger's base, um, which I don't think is coming out as strongly

28:11for this thing in, around Richmond and then, yeah.

28:14And then North Arlington and like Virginia beach, you know, these, these are, and not

28:18all of Virginia beach is wealthy, but like the wealthy parts of it.

28:21Yeah. Yeah. I get what you're saying.

28:22They had bigger swings down ballot from, um, uh, Abigail Spanberger's margin, uh, to Jay

28:29Jones's margin. Okay. So that was definitely the biggest thing.

28:32Is there any other group?

28:34Um, um, independence for sure.

28:36I mean, look, Jay Jones, uh, one independence in our second survey, you know, we

28:42had Abigail Spanberger winning by 13.

28:44She won by like 15, um, had Jay Jones winning by, I think four and

28:48he won by 6 .7.

28:50Right. So about two points off, um, or three points off besides the Lieutenant governor

28:53race. We actually were pretty much smack on the dot there.

28:55Um, no, uh, so Jay Jones won these about, you know, those true leaned independence

29:02who say, I do not identify with either party.

29:05Even if you ask me that I, um, which one I lean toward, right.

29:09Jay Jones won those voters by nine.

29:12And then like in the weighted exit poll, uh, you know, he won them by

29:17eight in that exit poll.

29:19Okay. Um, the no campaign is winning these voters by 24.

29:23That's a 33 point swing compared to huge swing.

29:26It's an enormous swing. So, um, this is the thing is that the, you know,

29:32I think the biggest group that the yes campaign has been targeting, it's black voters,

29:38black voters, um, are pretty much not moving at all.

29:41When we talk about, you know, like the no campaign is winning like 10 %

29:45of black voters in our poll.

29:46That's pretty much what like every standard Republican gets unless you're like Winston Sears who

29:51maybe got like a seven or 8 % of the black vote.

29:54Um, right. Um, so yeah, a little bit better, but it's just like, that's the

30:00standard partisanship. Um, and so the black vote has really been turning out for this

30:04thing. Um, now it's hard when we talk about like looking at the early vote

30:08right now, because there is a reduction in access to satellite voting locations.

30:12What are those? Well, in Fairfax County throughout the whole 45 days of early voting

30:16or not, uh, there's at least three, um, early, uh, early voting locations, Fairfax County

30:23County of over a million people, um, uh, suburbs everywhere, roads and traffic and everything.

30:29Right. Um, so they had these in the last two weeks of early voting in

30:342025, um, these extra locations, uh, that pop up before voting, or I think maybe

30:40it's three weeks. I don't remember, um, there has been a reduction in access to

30:44those satellite voting locations. Meaning the number of satellite locations has decreased.

30:50Yes. Compared to the same day equivalent.

30:52Um, so these satellites are opening up later, um, in a lot of the localities

30:56because the department of elections and the registrars, they were betting on a very sharp

31:02drop in turnout pretty much.

31:05Not really happening. We're probably going to see a majority of Virginians registered voters.

31:08Um, uh, I should say, uh, vote in this election.

31:11I was thinking that it was going to be, um, higher than 2025 because look,

31:16I mean, there were a lot of days when in the early vote, it was

31:19hidden, you know, above, um, you know, uh, over a hundred percent of same day

31:24equivalent turnout, meaning like 12th day of early voting, uh, 2025 versus 12th day of

31:29early voting now. Um, but in our poll, um, there's a sharp drop in the

31:35amount of people who say it's like a nine point drop.

31:38Um, I think, uh, who say that they are going to, uh, vote on election

31:43day. Uh, now don't look at the, just the one poll, um, because like 32

31:49% of people say they're going to vote on election day because voters, they think

31:53that they think very highly of themselves and it's like, I'm going to go vote

31:56early, even though I've never, I've never done it before.

31:58Right. This is, this is just a sort of, um, a response bias in polling.

32:02But if you take that, we asked the same question last year, which was about

32:05the same timeframe. Um, you know, we talk about days from the election, uh, in

32:10our late October survey versus this one, right.

32:13If you take that same, uh, response error and apply it to this poll, um,

32:19the election day vote in actuality and it wasn't 41%, it was like 56 or

32:2457%. If you take that response error, um, in this survey where it's like 32

32:31% now said they're going to vote on election day, you probably get like 47,

32:3548%, something like that. Um, people of who, of the whole election.

32:41vote on election day for the no campaign to win because they're winning election day

32:45voters very very big um they need to have a very very big election day

32:51turnout in order to beat this thing the independents have to make up higher composition

32:55um you know right now i mean again these hardcore dems are coming out to

32:59vote for this thing especially black voters and this was the thing that we looked

33:02at comparing to 2024 was like well there's a sharp drop in the um early

33:07vote for black turnout compared to 2024 same day equivalent and everything right but it

33:11was more so that these uh voters these black voters were moving more toward election

33:16day um so that's so okay so so black voters which did have a decline

33:212024 nationwide as far as the composition goes i don't know what it was like

33:25in virginia but nationwide black voter turnout was not that high compared to 2020 um

33:29you're saying this that's why we've seen obama everywhere is that this engagement towards black

33:34voters was driving yes campaign to win and for the no campaign to win for

33:39it to defeat it to get into that margin of error you have that would

33:42involve independence showing up in larger numbers and and same day voters as the election

33:47day voters showing up on larger numbers okay yes brilliant what is going on with

33:51spamburger spamburger wins by this giant margin not even six months ago or maybe just

33:57six months ago where does she stand now with voters yeah she's even an approval

34:0247 to 47 um approve disapprove right um so you know she's lost ground with

34:08both low income and high income voters um why is that low income and high

34:13income voters high income is the interesting part i'm not sure um i think maybe

34:18if i were to guess since the high income voters are moving more um i

34:23should have wrote about this actually because i didn't put it in there uh i

34:25want to talk about time um but i would guess that the high income voters

34:30are also moving heavily against the governor when we talk about um because because we

34:35looked at um you know obviously income by approval and everything right um compared to

34:40what we had in the late october survey um for what the governor was getting

34:43uh in that poll um which again was you know most accurate poll in virginia

34:47um you know they're swinging uh from in the in their voting behavior in that

34:52election um by uh let me pull it up here um uh for voters who

35:00uh may a hundred thousand dollars to hundred forty nine thousand dollars um there's a

35:0716 point difference in terms of what our poll showed in late october for her

35:10vote support versus her approval so 150 150 000 or more is a nine point

35:16difference the lower income voters are moving more i'll get to this in a second

35:20um there's a 20 point 21 point difference among people who say that they make

35:25less than 30 000 a year um and then uh for 30 to 50 000

35:30a year it's a 13 point difference uh middle class voters not really moving much

35:36there's only a five point difference in terms of that you know vote support versus

35:39approval so that's the lowest income we're moving the most and then the lower income

35:45of upper income people are only making 100 249 000 they're moving more than higher

35:51income you say only 120 000 well i'm just i'm trying like instead of making

35:55250 000 making 120 000 i'm trying to contextualize high yeah so so here's my

36:01thing on on why i think low -income voters are moving away um i think

36:06that the governor you know because she has become synonymous with this conversation democratic party

36:12on affordability and that is the key to victory for democrats in the terms right

36:16um i think this is something that has not been talked about in everybody's theories

36:21in in virginia and the art you know articles and everything on on why this

36:26is you know we had this big snowstorm obviously that hit the whole country but

36:30it hit us hard in virginia and a lot of people are feeling those power

36:33bills man i'll tell you i live in richmond um and you know i was

36:38seeing all these stories about everyone talking about how their power bills went up obviously

36:42that's not the governor's fault can't control the weather and obviously when you have uh

36:46the the coldest record temperatures in that time frame since the 1950s your power bill

36:50is going to go up in that month right um so i think that you

36:56know uh that might be a reason why the lower income voters are moving so

37:00hard uh against her right um you know you know uh and the uh and

37:08we can also say the same thing for the president right lower income voters moving

37:11heavily against president trump sure if he did well with those voters i actually had

37:15this whole argument literally today with a reporter if you look at white working class

37:20and latinos the shift against them is almost exactly the same uh it's not perfect

37:25but it's almost the economy stupid right it's completely the economy like it's not anything

37:30else it's the economy yeah so so getting the higher income voters here right um

37:35because they are more likely than lower income voters to move uh to swing from

37:40how they say they voted in 2025 right and you can see that in an

37:43article there's a little graph um to how they're voting on this amendment i think

37:47that's the thing because everybody talks about um uh that the governor's approval has dropped

37:52because she campaigned as a moderate she said she wasn't going to redistrict in virginia

37:57and we could talk about the technicalities of like well no the voters could decide

38:01redistricting everything but voters don't care about technicalities right right right um that because that

38:06these higher income voters who are you know you more educated uh and everything on

38:11more well informed yeah more well informed well you know when i say educated i

38:15mean like more likely have a four -year degree right right um and uh you

38:19know more likely to follow politics day to day and they know about that campaign

38:23promise that got broken um they you know and they're moving toward no comparative 2025

38:29i think that's the reason why they you also have this double digit margin of

38:33people who are making a hundred thousand dollars or more um uh you know uh

38:39you know move so i want to bring all that into like a very small

38:43easy bubble lower income people because of high energy bills and that the economy hasn't

38:48changed obviously not it's only been six months but you know heavy lies the crown

38:52and high income people it's because they feel like she broke a campaign promise did

38:57you see by any chance it just came out today so you may not have

39:00seen it the speaker of the virginia state house said that the redistricting is not

39:05why spamburger should be has negative approval ratings they have negative approval ratings because they

39:10don't like her is this that's what she said something something that affected no no

39:15no no okay okay louise yeah louise lucas yes okay i thought you said speaker

39:19scott said that i'm like no no no no that is the queen of 10

39:26to 1 right yes um she was the face absolutely the biggest advocate for you

39:32know a a map that would elect uh 10 to 1 democrats in congress in

39:38virginia um look uh uh uh i don't i don't think i should comment on

39:46on why these two people are fighting i'm sorry i'm just not gonna do it

39:50i'm not gonna leave the way but i'm not gonna i'm not gonna instead no

39:54no no it wasn't about why they're fighting it's about though there is clear indication

40:02from the polling though that this redistricting has affected her um at at at the

40:08uh at the risk yeah i i that that is my guess uh i say

40:13as i uh am putting myself at risk of being put in the louise lucas

40:17cup chair okay all right last quick question now that that i ask all my

40:25guests where people go to find your work read more about you and do everything

40:28yeah absolutely look say navigate um we're a non -partisan non -profit organization based here

40:34in virginia but we do work in eight states right now uh our next target

40:37uh for opening up shop is colorado and there's a whole bunch of stuff we

40:40do you know we're not just a polling fit we're a data resource we're a

40:44newsroom and we care deeply about state government this is a level of government that

40:49just gets so overlooked everybody thinks about the shiny object uh that is uh you

40:55know capitol hill uh right uh but they don't know what's going on in their

40:59state government and i tell you there's much more interesting stuff that affects you in

41:04your day -to -day life when we talk about state government um that you really

41:08need to pay attention to because i have seen people in both parties this is

41:11not a partisan thing again non -partisan um to where they have the most egregious

41:17scandals possible um you know wife beaters and and criminals and um stuff i'm not

41:25going to say in your podcast um and they win even in swing districts because

41:30voters don't know who's on their ballot so that's kind of like you know a

41:34little bit of mission is um you know to inform people about state legislatures promote

41:38uh uh you know just availability of research and data and journalism for state legislatures

41:45um so we are open in west virginia virginia north carolina south carolina utah uh

41:52michigan uh wisconsin and alaska those eight states say you guys do really good work

41:58i appreciate it i read your website staynavigate .com chas thanks for on this podcast

42:03i appreciate it thank you for having me ryan if you're feeling off fatigue mood

42:08changes skin shifts yet your labs say everything's normal you're not alone meet oestra from

42:14inner balance the first all -in -one prescription strength bioidentical hormone cream that's natural and

42:20effective and only takes one drop 10 seconds a day oestra replaces five to six

42:25products women typically use to treat symptoms and is third -party tested to ensure the

42:30highest quality visit innerbalance .com today to start feeling like yourself again that's innerbalance .com

42:37support for the show comes from public the investing platform for those who take it

42:41seriously on public you can build a multi -asset portfolio of stocks bonds options crypto

42:47and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index

42:51with ai it all starts with your prompt from renewable energy companies with high free

42:55cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20 percent year over year you can

43:00literally type any prompt and put the ai to work it screens thousands of stocks

43:04builds a one -of -a -kind index and lets you backtest it against the s

43:07p 500 then you can invest in a few clicks generated assets are like etfs

43:12with infinite possibilities completely customizable and based on your thesis not someone else's go to

43:17public .com slash podcast and earn an uncapped one percent bonus when you transfer your

43:21portfolio that's public .com slash podcast paid for by public investing brokerage services by open

43:26to the public investing inc member finra and sipc advisory services by public advisors llc

43:29sec registered advisor generated assets is an interactive analysis tool output is for informational purposes

43:33only and is not an investment recommendation or advice complete disclosures available at public dot

43:36com slash disclosures love bread baked goods and pasta but not the way they make

43:41you feel what if i told you there are macro -friendly options that don't taste

43:44like sawdust and sadness satisfying sandwiches fully loaded bagels noodles that can stand up to

43:49your favorite chunky sauces all delicious crave worthy and smart each serving of hero bread

43:55has up to 19 grams of protein and 32 grams of fiber and just zero

43:59to five grams net carbs and zero grams sugar hero bread bakes with heart -healthy

44:03olive oil and delivers this soft fluffy flavorful experience you love breakfast burritos smear loaded

44:09bagels real mac and cheese hero bread bakes loaves bagels and tortillas that don't taste

44:14or feel like cardboard noodles that don't fall apart in hearty sauces plus limited edition

44:19small batch bakes like the two grams net carb hero croissant or one gram net

44:23carb hero cheddar biscuit handmade in a sonoma -based french bakery shop now on hero

44:27.co use code iheart for 10 % off that's hero .co per serving not a

44:32low calorie food some products contain allulose see nutrition info on hero .co for sodium

44:37and sugar content you know what quality feels like you can see it in the

44:41way a fabric moves recognize it in a flawless fit and appreciate it in the

44:46details that make our styles unique it's the standard cold water creek has honored for

44:50over 40 years derived from a rich mountain west heritage and designed for today in

44:56styles that are distinctively cold water creek for a wardrobe you can count on season

45:01after season visit coldwatercreek .com shop new arrivals and save 15 on purchases $75 or

45:07more with code iheart now it's time for the ask me anything segment if you

45:12want a part of the ask me anything segment namely ryan at numbers game podcast

45:16.com that's ryan at numbers plural numbers game .com this question comes from michael he

45:21says why doesn't trump or some gop congress critter propose that the congress ratify trump's

45:27tariffs and pay pay it to the american people maybe limit to the number of

45:32lower working and middle classes it would feel it would help address affordability business would

45:39really couldn't object because the fed says the consumers pay 90 % of the tariffs

45:43he could say he disagrees with it but the supreme court has spoken that this

45:47is and this is how the system works um it's a very good idea michael

45:52that's a very as i actually had not thought of that idea before um why

45:57won't they do it i think if they try to pass a tax relief bill

46:02it instantly becomes a fight for who gets a cut of what i would imagine

46:07corporations would instantly run in there and say i pay for this percentage you need

46:11to pay me back um and the supreme court very might likely strike that down

46:17and say sorry you have to give it to everyone equally for what they paid

46:21um not just give it out to special carve outs and cutouts you run the

46:26risk of doing that and more legal clashes for the trump administration on something that's

46:29already very unpopular and very divisive uh it's not a bad idea though in a

46:35perfect world it's not a bad idea i think that they should be obviously gearing

46:40up to deliver that message and really what they should be talking about right now

46:44is as we're doing our tax for taxes today as a recording podcast it's tax

46:48day today um so hope you're all as miserable as me just joking um the

46:54um i think what they should be doing is talking about all the tax cuts

46:58that they provided to people especially working class people with no tax on tips i

47:03have relatives who work in the hospitality field some who are hairdressers and some who

47:07work at restaurants and they told me it was like a life -changing amount of

47:10money that they saw in their returns that this is like and these are middle

47:13class people these are not wealthy people these are people who are fighting to buy

47:18a home one day i know a couple want to get married soon like they're

47:21young people who are working really hard in the hospitality field so that's a big

47:25deal i mean i would be featuring them in an ad saying thank you to

47:29the republicans in congress every frontline republican i would be trying to find people in

47:34their district talking about how no tax on tips positively changed their life because the

47:39polling on the tax bill is still very very negative everyone perceives it as just

47:44a tax cut for the rich so they really need to emphasize that no this

47:48is a this was a tax cut for working class people especially in the hospitality

47:52field and that they were big winners from this entire tax cut so that's my

47:57own two cents on it thank you for the question i appreciate you all please

48:01email me more questions i can always use more uh ryan and numbers game podcast

48:05.com and thank you guys for listening to this podcast if you like this podcast

48:08please like and subscribe on the iheart radio app apple podcast and on youtube wherever

48:13you get this podcast give me a five -star review if you're feeling generous i

48:16appreciate you all i will talk to you guys monday have a great weekend can

48:22too heard you loud and clear with their new ultra moisture collection powered by batana

48:26oil and jamaican black castor oil this new lineup collection is clinically proven to deliver

48:31non -stop moisture for up to five days five whole days the shampoo gently cleanses

48:36without stripping and the leave -in and stylers keep curls soft defined and nourished long

48:41after wash day plus it's free of sulfates parabens silicones and mineral oils if your

48:46curls have been craving real moisture this is it so if your hair's curls have

48:51been thirsty go ahead and try the new canto ultra moisture collection your curls will

48:55thank you available now at walmart if you're feeling off fatigue mood changes skin shifts

49:02yet your labs say everything's normal you You're not alone.

49:05Meet Oestra from Inner Balance, the first all -in -one prescription -strength bioidentical hormone cream

49:11that's natural and effective and only takes one drop 10 seconds a day.

49:16Oestra replaces 5 -6 products women typically use to treat symptoms and is third -party

49:21tested to ensure the highest quality.

49:24Visit InnerBalance .com today to start feeling like yourself again.

49:28That's InnerBalance .com. You know what quality feels like.

49:32You can see it in the way a fabric moves, recognize it in a flawless

49:36fit, and appreciate it in the details that make our styles unique.

49:40It's the standard Coldwater Creek has honored for over 40 years, derived from a rich

49:44Mountain West heritage, and designed for today in styles that are distinctively Coldwater Creek.

49:50For a wardrobe you can count on season after season, visit ColdwaterCreek .com, shop new

49:55arrivals, and save 15 % on purchases $75 or more with code iHeart.

50:00Are you looking for a career building AI technology that can make a meaningful impact?

50:04Your next career move might just be at Intuit.

50:07Intuit technologists are fueling the financial success of people and businesses around the world with

50:12Intuit intelligence. A combination of AI, human expertise, and connected data built into products like

50:17TurboTax, QuickBooks, Credit Karma, and MailChimp.

50:20If building the future of financial intelligence at scale sounds exciting to you, check out

50:25Intuit .com slash careers. That's I -N -T -U -I -T dot com slash careers.

It's a Numbers Game: Virginia Governor Ratings Shock: Abigail Spanberger’s Ratings Collapse in New Polling