Hour 1 - Don't Panic and Listen to Us
4/8/202637 mincomplete
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast.
0:02Guaranteed human. Welcome back in.
0:06I say back in because it feels like we're constantly talking and always here because
0:10there is a lot of hours that we spend with all of you.
0:13It is the Wednesday edition of the program.
0:17And I will say, as a ceasefire has taken root in the Middle East, as
0:25I speak to you all presently, the stock market has surged.
0:30Oil and gas prices have collapsed.
0:32It's almost like if you listen to us and do not panic, you will end
0:37up doing better in your life.
0:39The S &P 500 up 2 .4%, a huge surge in that marketplace.
0:46Dow up 2 .7 % as we are talking, 1 ,245 points at the present
0:52day. Today, needless to say, days when the stock market goes up over 1 ,000
0:57points are relatively rare. Days when the stock market surges like this are not common.
1:03The price of oil and gas, as I speak to all of you, dropping $18
1:07down some 15 % or so.
1:11Stocks soaring, oil sinking as a truce, a ceasefire is underway in the Middle East.
1:20Now, Buck, as you can well imagine, we've got some cuts to play for you,
1:25but I saw Pete Hegg set this morning saying Iran needs to notify some of
1:29its people via carrier pigeon that they need to stop firing off drones and missiles.
1:34There are still issues in Lebanon.
1:36It's not as if the Middle East is usually very calm in the first place.
1:40So you are, it seems, filled with some measure of trepidation about how long the
1:45ceasefire might last. But for the moment, stocks soaring, oil collapsing, and now you can
1:53come tap dance on with some negativity after my one -and -a -half -minute positive
1:59open there. Thank you. And I'm glad that we represent both sides of the pro
2:05-Trump, pro -American, peace -in -the -Middle -East point of view.
2:09But a little bit of a variation here on my sense of it.
2:14First of all, I said yesterday they're going to just extend this thing, which is
2:17really what this is. This is an extension.
2:20Nothing has been agreed to that is lasting bonding.
2:24I mean, I know you meant ceasefire and you said that, but this is not
2:28a truce. This is not a long -term agreement.
2:32This is a we're going to stop pounding you from the air and try to
2:36talk to you about some things and see if you will come to your senses.
2:39Now, I view this, Clay, very much as a we'll see situation.
2:45But here's the downside, or here's my negative impulses about some of this.
2:50The Iran 10 -point deal that they've put forward via intermediaries in Pakistan is awful.
3:00It is unworkable. Their positions are, we get to keep nukes, we get control, and
3:07can take tolls on ships now in the Strait of Hormuz.
3:12America promises to stop attacking us, and Israel promises to stop attacking Hezbollah as well
3:17as us. I mean, you go down this list.
3:19Now, I understand this is a, as Trump says, a workable place to begin negotiations.
3:26But here is the fundamental problem, as I see it.
3:31This is now a race against the clock.
3:34This is basically the timeline that Trump had for the completion of this mission.
3:40And I thought, I said on the show, I think it'll be done by April
3:431st. Okay, it's April 8th.
3:45We aren't bombing them anymore.
3:46So pretty darn close, because the politics here at home play a large part in
3:51this. Clay, I do not see a future in which Iran renounces its nuclear ambitions,
3:59agrees to true, and people say intrusive, but I mean, you know, real nuclear inspections,
4:06gives up its highly enriched uranium, and if anything, I think the Iranian regime that
4:13is in place views this as a, okay, you hit us with your best shot,
4:18and we are still standing.
4:20I think the Iranians believe that we, for political reasons, and that's not even really
4:25the right term, the American people will not go along with a sustained ground invasion
4:30of Iran, and I would agree with that sentiment, I might add.
4:33So that's not on the table.
4:35The American people do not want high gas prices, and that means that Republicans are
4:40going to start pressuring Trump if we go back to bombing them.
4:42We have a delay here in the campaign.
4:46Does anyone really, I mean, I'll ask you this, do you think in two weeks
4:50we're going to have a real agreement with Iran that they can be held to
4:54and that we have faith in and that ends this thing?
4:57I have, and then what do we do?
4:59We start bombing them again?
5:01Yeah. Well, then they shut the strait.
5:03The strait of Hormuz is a real choke point.
5:05This is a real problem.
5:06Sorry, go ahead. No, no, I think the question you're asking is the one that
5:10is the next step here.
5:11How much is this going to hold?
5:16And already there's disputes over what can happen in Lebanon and all these different aspects
5:22of Israeli action because Israel...
5:24Israel has been very active in northern Israel, southern Lebanon.
5:29I think what's going to end up happening is there will be flashpoints on this
5:34for probably the next six months between now and the end of the year.
5:39What do you mean flashpoints?
5:40Do you mean things going boom in Iran or do you mean mean words in
5:44the diplomatic sphere? Everything's going boom in Iran.
5:47I think we'll probably scramble jets and go hit some more targets at some point
5:51in time to demonstrate that there has to be some some tacit relationship and agreement.
5:59Just after that, though, is there some does Iran finally bend the knee and agree
6:06to Trump's terms? I think the answer is no.
6:10There's 15 demands from our side.
6:13There's 10 demands from their side and the two demanding lists are in direct contact
6:19as far apart as this is like I want a million dollars for my house.
6:23I'll give you five bucks.
6:24That's where we are. Here is what I thought was the most interesting about this.
6:29First of all, who was attributed to making the decision on Iran's side?
6:35It's the Gayatola. We don't even know if the Gayatola can talk.
6:39We don't know where you come up with this term.
6:42Is this a term? Is this a term?
6:43I roll with it. I can pronounce that one.
6:46Well, the the the son of Kamehne, the Gayatola.
6:51I'm not sure. Little Moe.
6:53Little Moe. Little Moe. I'm not sure if he's alive.
6:55I'm not sure if he can speak.
6:57But what I think he provides Buck is a convenient repository for decision making that
7:06may meet makes it such that whoever is actually making the decision in Iran is
7:12able to say, oh, no, no, that's not us.
7:14If it's a little bit politically unpopular, that is the supreme leader.
7:18Even if the supreme leader is unable to make decisions.
7:21Remember, we still haven't heard his voice.
7:23We still haven't seen a picture of him.
7:24We still haven't seen a video of him.
7:26There are just reports that he was significantly injured.
7:29And so I want to push you on this a little bit.
7:31I want to push you on this a little bit.
7:33OK, because I actually want your optimism and I'll be honest with you.
7:36I think most of the most of our people with this right now, they want
7:39your like they don't want what I'm selling.
7:40But I just I can't lie.
7:42I'm I don't think this is a disaster, certainly in the market you're speaking that
7:46it's not a disaster right now.
7:47And I think Trump's going to walk away.
7:49But if you're telling me if we're looking at what comes out of this campaign,
7:53right, what fundamentally we get from this versus what the Iranians get and what we
7:59wanted from the outset. Do you believe at the end of like make it the
8:04end of this by the end of this year, has Iran given up the enriched
8:08uranium? Has Iran agreed to give up its nuclear pursuit and is Iran no longer
8:12in a position to choke us at the Strait of Hormuz?
8:16OK, so let's go through the order.
8:18They basically have no air force.
8:20They have no Navy. They have very limited ability to engage in any sort of
8:26aggressive act. We destroyed their military, right?
8:30Their military is done. If you take at their word and I think this is
8:34likely true right now, we have satellite observations.
8:38On all of their fuel cells, all their uranium deposits, everything that would be used
8:44to construct, construct a nuclear bomb.
8:47And if Iran makes any effort to go and try to retrieve that, which appears
8:51to be significantly buried under lots of topsoil based on attacks, we would take action
8:57as we see fit. So I think getting to the uranium, enriching it, all those
9:01things are going to be very difficult.
9:03So I think we have effectively neutered Iran's ability to impact in a significant way
9:08action in the Middle East.
9:10What I think is the most significant factor right now is who is making decisions
9:15and can we trust them?
9:17To what extent do we believe?
9:19Remember, go back in the early days of Venezuela, Buck, when Delce Rodriguez came out
9:24and said, Oh, they're still the American infidels.
9:27And then she's saying publicly one thing, but privately she's basically doing whatever we want.
9:33And we're not talking about Venezuela in a significant way.
9:36Does someone have the sway in Iran?
9:39I don't care what they say about publicly in our country.
9:41I don't care if they show up and they throw their fist in the air
9:44and they chant death to America.
9:46Privately, are they being rational and negotiating with us in a productive way?
9:52And does the person who we are negotiating with, to your point, Buck, actually have
9:57the wherewithal to control action in Iran?
10:00Because it doesn't take much to blow up one of these fuel tankers.
10:04And so if there are competing factions inside of Iran, to what extent is the
10:09leader able to actually lead and control what people in the country are doing?
10:13We did this and there's a very detailed New York Times piece.
10:17Take it for what it's worth, whether you think they believe it or not.
10:19But a lot of it reads like what you would expect it to read like,
10:24taking you inside the situation.
10:25You've been in some of those meetings.
10:26I read this article, too.
10:27Sometimes New York Times articles read like fiction.
10:29This to you, and you've been in the rooms.
10:32But this read like an accurate telling of what the debates surrounding this war would
10:36be like. Yes. It sounds to me like somebody who was in the room told
10:43them. Now, whenever someone does that, of course, they're usually the hero of the narrative.
10:47And, you know, you could sort of piece some things together or they at least
10:49look the most astute. But I think the New York Times people.
10:52largely aligns and i told you this at the time it talks about the little
10:56the op the idea of maybe getting the kurds involved which they say came from
11:00the israelis which i know from working the iraq issue for years was a complete
11:05non -starter and sure enough i was right but the fact that that came up
11:09or rather that the reporting is that that came up in the context of iran
11:13there were some pieces here that make me think that this is how it went
11:17down how their decision making process uh was laid out but clay we keep going
11:22around that trump this war was fought to stop iran from ever being able to
11:29go nuclear now we're being told more that it was to stop iran's ballistic missile
11:36force okay they're going to be able to rebuild that they're going to be able
11:43to count on the oil flow to fund buying from the russians buying from the
11:49chinese etc military hardware to get them back to where they were so i i
11:54know that we're supposed to believe that the destruction of ballistic missile capability is like
11:58some fantastic victory it's a victory i'm not discounting it our military did incredible things
12:02i'm not encounter that uh discounting that either but at the end of this do
12:07we have either a different regime or a regime that agrees to the terms with
12:13which we could go forward and say iran is not a nuclear threat anymore i
12:18don't think the answer to either of those questions is yes and i just have
12:23to be honest about that i don't think that we're in we're in place with
12:27either of those things if the incentive structure as we have talked about on the
12:31program is for iran to get nuclear weapons because it strengthens the ability and people
12:37in positions of power to stay there without external forces being able to remove them
12:41as exists in north korea is there anything that could occur that would lead to
12:48iran not pursuing nuclear weapons well this is but this is my my concern here
12:53is that we hit them with everything we could from the air as they told
12:56us as secretary hegseth has told us when we annihilated them with everything we could
13:01from the air we got to a point where it was well now we're just
13:03going to blow up your power plants and your you know your water treatment facilities
13:07and everything else that was what trump was talking about okay well that's that's not
13:11a good thing like that's not something you really want to do to a country
13:14of 90 million people and if that's where we are for the next round of
13:19punishment i don't know that we have a stick big enough so to speak to
13:25beat them into submission to give us what we want at the end of this
13:28deal i think they're going to say to us fine hit us again we'll close
13:31the straight how long before your elections that's my concern clay i think they see
13:36what's going on here i understand that concern i think in the back of their
13:40mind every leader in iran knows that we can take them out and i'm working
13:45under the capacity that we believe we have reached for iran rational leadership that does
13:53have some control over the country we'll see i don't i don't think we do
13:56i don't think i don't think we have a different government i don't think we
13:58have different people in charge i think that that is that ship has sailed here
14:02is here is the test to what extent do any of these oil and tankers
14:06get blown up because if they get blown up then everyone purely economically is going
14:13to say we can't risk going through the straight of hormuz right now i don't
14:17think it's a rational act on iran's leadership's behalf to blow up oil and gas
14:22tankers right now but if they do either they are intransigent not working with us
14:27or they just don't have any control over the factions that are willing to do
14:31that if i'm like this the head of whatever's left of the irgc leadership clay
14:36and trump in two weeks blows up my power plants blows up civil truly civilian
14:42infrastructure yeah i blow up an oil tanker in the straight of hormuz like i
14:47make this the whole world's problem real fast so just looking at a bunch of
14:52them you could blow up a bunch of them and it would cost almost nothing
14:55in terms of the physical assets required to do so and and this is my
15:00friends this is a suicide bomber culture we're talking about here in the middle east
15:04like they're willing to take a lot of pain to take other people down so
15:07keep that in mind you know how the iranians used to clear minefields clay in
15:11the iran iraq war they had a special cadre of humans who would run to
15:18save tanks yeah the martyr brigades they would clear the minefields by walking on them
15:26and that's what we're dealing with everybody all right sorry buck is womp womp but
15:32i'll always tell you the truth i have my concerns i love trump i love
15:36this country i hope everything works out fantastically oil prices are dropping that's good but
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16:37Free sector, pals. Clay and Buck on the iHeart app.
16:40All right, welcome back into Clay and Buck.
16:41Talking a lot about the Iran ceasefire.
16:43What comes next? The Trump administration declaring victory.
16:46The Iranian regime declaring victory.
16:49No surprise there. Let's hear from J .D.
16:51Vance on this one. Cut to.
16:53If the Iranians are willing in good faith to work with us, I think we
16:57can make an agreement. If they're going to lie, if they're going to cheat, if
17:00they're going to try to prevent even the fragile troops that we've set up from
17:05taking place, then they're not going to be happy because what the president has also
17:09shown is that we still have clear military, diplomatic, and maybe most importantly, we have
17:14extraordinary economic leverage. The president has told us not to use those tools.
17:18He's told us to come to the negotiating table.
17:20But if the Iranians don't do the exact same thing, they're going to find out
17:23that the president of the United States is not one to mess around.
17:27He's impatient. He's impatient to make progress.
17:29He has told us to negotiate in good faith.
17:32And I think if they negotiate in good faith, we will be able to find
17:34a deal. But that's a big if, and ultimately, it's up to the Iranians how
17:37they negotiate. I hope they make the right decision.
17:40There's not going to be a deal.
17:42I'll tell you that right now.
17:43Mark that down. There's not going to be a deal that Iran concedes its nuclear
17:46program and gives away its enriched uranium.
17:50Hold me to this one, team.
17:51It's not going to be a deal.
17:52So just get ready for that.
17:54I'm curious. Well, we'll come back.
17:56I'll give you a question, too, about this.
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18:56Speaking truth and having fun.
18:59Clay, Travis, and Buck Sexton.
19:01Welcome back in. Clay, Travis, Buck Sexton show.
19:06By the way, news. We had both Clay Fuller and Sean Harris on in the
19:12Georgia 14 congressional district. That is North Georgia up near the Tennessee border.
19:18Clay Fuller winning by around 12 or 13 points.
19:23Votes are still being cast, but he has won to take over Marjorie Taylor Greene's
19:29seat. We had both those guys on, Clay Fuller and Sean Harris.
19:33And Clay Fuller has won.
19:35That race will be back again in November as it's just a short period of
19:42time to be fulfilling. All right, we got a couple of talkbacks.
19:47I'll get to those. Let me ask you a question, Buck.
19:50What if there is a wink, wink, nod, nod that Iran is not going to
19:55touch the uranium? And we are able to say publicly, hey, nuclear ambitions in Iran
20:03are over. And Iran is able to say publicly, we didn't give up our nuclear
20:08ambitions. But there is an understanding that due to American air superiority, Iran doesn't have
20:14the ability to access what they had previously created.
20:18And that if they do attempt to do so, there will be significant consequences.
20:23But it will allow both sides to publicly claim victory.
20:29And the end result is one that we feel more comfortable with than the other.
20:35I think that's probably the most likely outcome here is that Iran says, oh, we
20:39wanted the negotiating table. And America says, oh, we wanted the negotiating table.
20:43And the question is, to what extent is that public statement consistent with private actions?
20:51So you think that we'll de facto get the nuclear concessions from Iran while they
20:57promise they're not going to give us publicly the nuclear concessions?
21:00I think that allows Iran to save face with the leadership.
21:05I don't think they're worried about saving face, my man.
21:07I think they think that they've got us on this straight -of -Hormuz thing.
21:11I think they took our best shot, and they're looking at us, and they're like,
21:15all right, what's next? You're going to nuke us?
21:17What's next? Now, by the way, I know we're not going to do that.
21:19But I'm just saying, from their mentality, what are we going to do?
21:23Are we going to start bombing them again in two weeks if there's no agreement?
21:26You really think we're going to do that?
21:28So here, yes, I think we will.
21:30Here is the problem that I see with the straight -of -Hormuz.
21:33It's basically cutting their own throat.
21:35If they don't allow the oil and gas to transfer through, transit through the Strait
21:42of Hormuz, the entire Iranian economy is predicated on being able to sell oil and
21:47gas. One of the craziest things about this entire military operation is they've continued to
21:53load oil and gas onto Iranian ships and transit them through the Strait of Hormuz.
21:59If I think if they are going to say, hey, we're not going to allow
22:05ships to come through this area, we don't have to allow Iranian ships out or
22:10we can go in and we can actually seize the Iranian oil and gas infrastructure.
22:15So I don't see their threat.
22:17And by the way, we've got to talk back on this.
22:19I don't see their threat as viable because they can't exist as an economy unless
22:26they're able to sell oil and gas and their pain point.
22:30I guess the question is, to what extent is their pain point necessary?
22:34I think at some point in time, everyone will just say to Iran, you were
22:39starting to see this happen with the UAE and other Saudi Arabian area countries, these
22:44other Gulf countries, they oil and gas has to flow.
22:48And even there are reports that China was instrumental in getting this 14 day ceasefire
22:55negotiated because China needs the oil and gas coming out of Iran.
23:00So I don't see a world where Iran can say we're going to shut down
23:05the Strait of Hormuz and actually be able to do it because I don't think
23:09there is a global support.
23:11Leave aside the United States.
23:13China has to have this oil and gas.
23:15A lot of other countries that are technically rivals of the United States, much of
23:20Europe has to have it.
23:21I just don't see a world where they can actually shut it down.
23:25Now, we've got a question on this.
23:26So I understand that you don't see a world where they can shut down the
23:29Strait. Right. No, we've been in that world.
23:32No, I mean, there's still ships coming through.
23:35I don't think that they can.
23:36And Iranian ships have continued to come through.
23:39I'm saying we can stop Iran ships from coming through.
23:42We can shut off Iran's ability to make any money at all.
23:46But it's a little bit of clay like, you know, can Secaucus, New Jersey shut
23:54down shipping, you know, along its waterways better than some country that's thousands of miles
24:01away? I mean, they're right there.
24:03That's why they have. No, no, but what I'm saying is we could, if we
24:06needed to, we could put a barricade up and we could say we're not going
24:11to allow any Iranian oil to leave.
24:14We are not going to allow them to access global markets at all.
24:19I think Iran needs oil and gas money more than than we do.
24:25And again, this is a lot of people have talked about this.
24:27You know, who's been celebrating the most in the United States over the war in
24:31Iran? Texas oil people. The amount of money that they are making when it's one
24:36hundred dollars a barrel as opposed to sixty dollars a barrel is through the roof.
24:41And because America has energy independence, we actually, as a country, benefit to some extent
24:48when oil and gas prices go up now because we are selling oil and gas
24:53on the global market and our businesses, their profits skyrocket.
24:57Now, individuals, when it comes to what we have to pay on oil and gas,
25:01have to pay more. But a lot of that money stays in the country, unlike
25:05in 1991 when we had to go to war in the Middle East.
25:09If we were confident we could stop Iranian ships from going through, why wouldn't we
25:16do that right now? I think we've been allowing those ships out because it puts
25:22more oil and gas on the marketplace.
25:23If I were Trump right now, I would say they don't have the, I don't
25:27know why he hasn't said it publicly.
25:28But I mean, what's more important, shutting down Iran entirely or putting more oil and
25:32gas in the global marketplace?
25:34Well, I think it, I think it leads to the question of how long do
25:37you want to do it?
25:38There is a pain point, right?
25:40And the pain point is significant in a midterm election cycle.
25:44But Iran, the only way they get any money at all is by having oil
25:49and gas transit. Their ships have been transiting.
25:52Their threat is we'll hit other country ships, which is why a lot of other
25:57countries have decided we aren't willing to run through the Strait of Hormuz right now
26:01and take the risk, which goes to...
26:03So if we have the stronger hand, which you seem to think that we do,
26:06why can't we get them to concede?
26:08I think we have to figure out who we're actually negotiating with.
26:12I think the people who lead Iran are afraid that if they be, if they
26:16are seen in Iran as bending the knee to the United States, then they lose
26:21power. So that's why I think if you read this story, they said the Supreme
26:26Leader, who may be dead and may be in a coma, the new one, the
26:29Gayatola, actually made this decision.
26:32If you go read and you hear like, okay, who made the call to do
26:36this ceasefire? They are saying the Gayatola did it.
26:39I think he is right now a fiction that people in positions that are trying
26:44to angle for power in Iran are using as the guy who's making these deals.
26:49Because I think they're afraid that if you are seen as being in a good
26:54relationship with the United States and Israel, it's hard to have power.
26:58So we have to figure out who actually is capable of ruling Iran.
27:04And here's the day. Maybe there's not a person.
27:06I hope what you were saying is true.
27:09I don't, I don't see it that way.
27:11I think the Iranians feel like, oh, wow, we really can just.
27:15shut down the strait and trump just blinked and now we get to make crazy
27:18demands and now we go into months and months of negotiation why let me ask
27:23you this i think why didn't they shut down the strait of hormuz before because
27:28we weren't bombing everything in sight what do you mean okay but no no my
27:32question is if if you believe that you have this political asset and this political
27:38power why did they not do it in june why have they not threatened to
27:42do it before i mean it clearly creates pain for them but it creates pain
27:46for us so they this is like this is like who who can bleed out
27:50faster is really the game we're talking about or who bleeds out faster and i
27:54think that's why i think it's iran that bleeds out faster because i don't think
27:58their world if they aren't able to ship oil and gas their entire world collapses
28:05within a month i don't think our look does it stink to have to pay
28:10four dollars a gallon of gas as opposed to two dollars and 80 cents a
28:15gallon of gas i get that but i don't think our overall economy is impacted
28:20anywhere near as much as europe as china as many of the middle eastern states
28:26are but they're not playing they're not they're not trying to outlast our economy clay
28:29they're trying to outlast our political will they're trying to outlast the willingness of the
28:34president to subject the american people to high gas prices or instability in the middle
28:40east or whatever this is without getting absolutely annihilated in the midterm election right i
28:46mean that's what they're playing they're not playing like we're richer than they are obviously
28:50but i don't think iran's economy works if they don't if they're not able to
28:55ship oil and gas out of the strait of hormuz for a month i think
28:59their entire economy collapses but that would mean so you're saying because then if they're
29:06not able to ship no one's able to ship correct i'm saying that our response
29:10to them in my opinion should be hey if you're going to not provide free
29:15passage to the strait of hormuz then we are putting a u .s aircraft carrier
29:19at the end of the strait and no ships are getting out that would be
29:24my response if i were they're going to have a lot of target practice on
29:26that aircraft carrier but yeah sure uh i mean we can restrict i mean this
29:31this idea that only iran has the ability to control ingress and egress in the
29:36strait of hormuz i just don't buy we have continued to allow iranian ships out
29:41they've continued to load oil and gas on karg island if i were there and
29:46we truly think that they're going to restrict ingress and egress and we'll see what
29:50the trans uh transit looks like over the next couple of days i would say
29:54we're not going to have a rule where iran ships can come in and out
29:57as they did so desire and meanwhile no other countries are going to be able
30:02to go in and out i i don't think that's a tenable result and so
30:06the reason they've been able to do that up to this point is because we've
30:08thought that they're crazy enough that they would actually blow up another country's oil tanker
30:12if they don't concede right or if they don't yeah but by the way the
30:15regime that they want now is that they get two million dollars a boat for
30:18every boat that goes into the strait of four moose correct that's that's what they're
30:21demanding now trump is saying we'll split the money uh i you know again that's
30:26the most trump thing ever oh my god trump has said like hey if they're
30:29going to charge two million we'll take one of that um and we'll get you
30:32know part of the money too look i just think their their hand is not
30:36as strong because we have been pretty kind in letting their boats to continue to
30:40transit i think it's crazy i think a lot of people don't even realize this
30:42they've continued to run their oil and gas facilities like normal while we've been bombing
30:48the but this is why we don't have the leverage that we've we've this is
30:52why we haven't been able to force a concession by the way we went through
30:55this with russia too oh we're gonna we're gonna bring russia i remember we were
31:00doing the show together remember oh russia's gonna be brought to its knees oh they're
31:04gonna be kicked out of the international financial system russia can't fight this war for
31:08long against ukraine blah blah blah bull oil gas money talks bs walks russia's been
31:15able to continue fighting this war and then some despite all of the maximum pressure
31:19campaign well because we let them sell their oil and gas so we're not actually
31:25but so we're not actually really trying to grab them by the balls it's a
31:29lot of public posturing but we let them we couldn't stop russia from selling oil
31:33and gas to china by the way we let them sell their oil and gas
31:36to india and then we let india mark it up a little bit it's a
31:40great business for the indian people right because they get russian oil and gas at
31:44a discount they mark it up a little bit and they basically launder it through
31:48the global marketplace i just i don't believe that iran uh if we say okay
31:55your oil and gas isn't getting out either um you gotta remember russia clay we're
31:59talking pipelines right i mean a lot of china's natural gas comes through overland pipelines
32:03so that's a difference right then we so unless we're gonna start blowing up russia's
32:07pipe by the way i think they would actually this is why ukraine blew up
32:11uh this is why ukraine blew up the nordstrom pipeline to try to restrict the
32:16ability of oil and gas and that that was um i'm not sure that worked
32:20out for us the way that we had hoped that it would so so you
32:23think well we'll come back um and we'll continue to take your talk backs uh
32:27we'll see where we are in two weeks i think in two weeks they're gonna
32:29say negotiations are going great iran we beat them we won we're gonna keep talking
32:35for another 60 days we'll come back to this i think that's where this is
32:38heading so you think that but the question is in the meantime is the Strait
32:43of Hormuz open? Because we'll find that out pretty quickly.
32:47I think Iranians are going to start operating like a toll business in the Strait
32:50of Hormuz in the meantime.
32:52That's what I think is going to happen.
32:53They'll be like, look, we're not stopping ships.
32:55We're getting basically reparations for the war America started, so pay us.
32:59I don't understand or believe necessarily that Iran hasn't been doing that in the past,
33:08taking cuts. Well, there are other countries that are on the Strait, Clay, so they'd
33:11be pissing off a lot of their...
33:12It's not actually their waterway, right?
33:14But now they're treating it like their waterway.
33:16Which is why, again, I come back to, I think if we actually say we're
33:20not going to allow Iranian oil and gas out either, that that would change in
33:24a hurry. Because I just don't...
33:25That's their only economy at this point.
33:28And they can barely... It's 20 % of their GDP.
33:30They actually have more than just oil.
33:32It's 20 % of GDP.
33:33It's a lot. I mean, I'm not saying it's...
33:36I think it's like 60 % of their exports is oil.
33:38But, yeah. They are so inefficient, even with the oil and gas that they produce,
33:43that they can't keep electricity on in the country even before we bombed them a
33:48ton. They were stopping kids from going to school because they couldn't afford to run
33:53power and surges or issues and everything else.
33:56Don't underestimate their ability to suffer.
33:58All right, so you guys are getting sort of both sides of this view.
34:01So there you go. I mean, and let me just be very clear.
34:05I hope Clay is right and that there is a secret, rational group inside of
34:09Iran that will make the concessions we want, not admit to them, get a deal
34:12going, Trump wins, and would be the biggest international relations slash military strike victory in
34:21a very long time. And it would be incredible.
34:23I don't think that's how this is going to play out, unfortunately.
34:27I'm optimistic. I just think that rationality at some level is going to play out.
34:33But we will see. We'll see.
34:34I'm about to get lit up in the talkback.
34:36Someone's going to go, Buck is insane.
34:38Amazing win. The biggest win ever.
34:40It's huge. Huge win. All right, fine.
34:42Hopefully I'm wrong. But in the meantime, I've got to tell you, if you need
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35:52Code Clay. It's like having your house at the perfect temperature all the time.
36:00Preset Clay and Buck on the iHeart app.
36:03Welcome back in here to Clay and Buck.
36:05We've got a quick turnaround so we can come back and maybe take some calls
36:08and talkbacks. What do you think, Clay?
36:10Is that a good way to handle it because we didn't get any in really?
36:13Yes, I'm sure that we are deluged right now and I can see every line
36:16ringing and I'm sure we've gotten an unbelievable amount of talkbacks.
36:20So we'll get into those for the next hour and hear what you guys think.
36:23What do you think about the Iran ceasefire which is where things stand right now?
36:28And then also, I want to talk about some immigration stuff including an effort with
36:33a number of GOP members of Congress to try to get what is an amnesty.
36:38It's a straight up amnesty.
36:40Don't listen to anybody who's trying to tell you otherwise.
36:42It's an amnesty bill passed which shows you how quickly the GOP will betray the
36:45base. And then Clay, some wild stuff about fraud in California that's out there now.
36:52One doctor billing $270 million just in California to Medi -Cal in fraud.
37:00We should talk about this though.
37:01$370 million $6s