The Manosphere Report

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2:59Welcome back in. I say back in because it feels like we're constantly talking and

3:05always here because there is a lot of hours that we spend with all of

3:09you. It is the Wednesday edition of the program.

3:13And I will say, as a ceasefire has taken root in the Middle East, as

3:21I speak to you all presently, the stock market has surged.

3:26Oil and gas prices have collapsed.

3:28It's almost like if you listen to us and do not panic, you will end

3:33up doing better in your life.

3:35The S &P 500 up 2 .4%, a huge surge in that marketplace.

3:42Dow up 2 .7 % as we are talking, 1 ,245 points at the present

3:49day. Needless to say, days when the stock market goes up over 1 ,000 points

3:54are relatively rare. Days when the stock market surges like this are not common.

3:59The price of oil and gas, as I speak to all of you, dropping $18

4:03down some 15 % or so.

4:07Stock soaring, oil sinking as a truce, a ceasefire is underway in the Middle East.

4:16Now, Buck, as you can well imagine, we've got some cuts to play for you.

4:21But I saw Pete Hegg set this morning saying Iran needs to notify some of

4:25its people via carrier pigeon that they need to stop firing off drones and missiles.

4:31There are still issues in Lebanon.

4:32It's not as if the Middle East is usually very calm in the first place.

4:36So you are, it seems, filled with some measure of trepidation about how long the

4:41ceasefire might last. But for the moment, stocks soaring, oil collapsing, and now you can

4:50come tap dance on with some negativity after my one and a half minute positive

4:55open there. Thank you. And I'm glad that we represent both sides of the pro

5:01-Trump, pro -American, peace in the Middle East point of view.

5:05But a little bit of a variation here on my sense of it.

5:10First of all, I said yesterday they're going to just extend this thing, which is

5:13really what this is. This is an extension.

5:16Nothing has been agreed to that is lasting bonding.

5:20I mean, I know you meant ceasefire and you said that, but this is not

5:24a truce. This is not a truce.

5:25not a a a long -term agreement this is a we're going to stop pounding

5:30you from the air and try to talk to you about some things and see

5:34if you will come to your senses now i view this clay very much as

5:38a we'll see situation but here's the downside or here here's my my negative uh

5:45impulses about some of this the iran 10 point deal that they've put forward via

5:51intermediaries in pakistan is awful it is unworkable yeah their positions are we get to

6:01keep nukes we get control and can take tolls on ships now in the strait

6:07of hormuz america promises to stop attacking us and israel promises to stop attacking hezbollah

6:13as well as i mean you go down this list now i understand this is

6:17a as trump says a workable place to begin negotiations but here is the fundamental

6:25problem as i see it this is now a race against the clock this is

6:30basically the timeline that trump had for the completion of this mission and i thought

6:37i said on the show i think it'll be done by april 1st okay it's

6:40april 8th we aren't bombing them anymore so pretty darn close because the politics here

6:46at home play a large part in this clay i do not see a future

6:51in which iran renounces its nuclear ambitions agrees to true and people say intrusive but

6:59i mean you know real nuclear inspections gives up its highly enriched uranium and if

7:06anything i think the irani the the iranian regime that is in place views this

7:11as a okay you hit us with your best shot and we are still standing

7:16i think the iranians believe that we for political reasons and that's not even really

7:21the right term the american people will not go along with a sustained ground invasion

7:26of iran and i would agree with that sentiment i might add so that's not

7:30on the table the american people do not want high gas prices and that means

7:35that republicans are going to start pressuring trump if we go back to bombing them

7:38we have a delay here in the campaign does anyone really i mean i'll ask

7:44you this do you think in two weeks we're going to have a real agreement

7:47with iran that they can be held to and that we have faith in and

7:51that ends this thing i have and then what do we do we start bombing

7:56them again yeah well then they shut the straight i the straight of her moves

8:01is a real choke point this is a real problem sorry go ahead no no

8:03i think the question you're asking is the one that is the next step here

8:07how uh much is this going to hold and already there's disputes over what can

8:14happen in lebanon and all these different uh aspects of israeli action because uh israel's

8:21been very active in northern israel southern lebanon um i think what's going to end

8:26up happening is there will be flashpoints uh on this for probably the next six

8:32months um between now and the end of the year and you mean flashpoints do

8:36you mean things going boom in iran or do you mean mean words in the

8:40diplomatic i think things going boom in iran i think we'll probably scramble jets and

8:45go hit some more targets at some point in time to demonstrate that there has

8:49to be some uh some tacit relationship and agreement um we i just at the

8:56after that though is there some does iran finally bend the knee and agree to

9:02trump's terms i think the answer is no there's 15 demands from our side there's

9:1010 demands from their side and the two demanding lists are uh indirect as far

9:16apart as this is like i want a million dollars for my house i'll give

9:19you five bucks that's where we are here is what i thought was the most

9:23interesting about this um first of all who was attributed to making the decision on

9:30iran's side it's the gay atola we don't even know if the gay atola can

9:35talk we don't know where you come up with this term is this a u

9:39-term i roll with it i can pronounce that one well the the son of

9:45kamehne the gay atola i'm not sure little mo little mo little mo i'm not

9:50sure if he's alive i'm not sure if he can speak but what i think

9:54he provides buck is a convenient repository for decision making that may meet makes it

10:04such that whoever is actually making the decision in iran is able to say oh

10:09no no that's not us if it's a little bit politically unpopular that is the

10:14supreme leader even if the supreme leader is unable to make decisions remember we still

10:18haven't heard his voice we still haven't seen a picture of him we still haven't

10:21seen a video of him uh there are just reports that he was significantly injured

10:25and so i want to push you on this a little bit i want to

10:28push you on this a little bit okay because i actually want your optimism and

10:31i'll be honest with you i think most of the most of our people with

10:34this right now they want your like they don't want what i'm selling but i

10:37just i can't lie um i don't think this is a disaster certainly in the

10:41market you're speaking that it's not a disaster right now and i think trump's going

10:44to walk away but if you're telling me if we're looking at what comes out

10:48of this campaign right what fundamentally we get from this right now and i think

10:52that's a good thing that's a good thing that's a good thing that's a good

10:52thing that's a good thing that's a good thing that's a good thing that's a

10:52good thing that's a good thing that's a good thing that's a good thing that's

10:52a good thing that's a good thing that's a good thing that's a good thing

10:52that's a good thing that's a good thing that's a good thing that's a good

10:52thing that's a good thing that's a good thing that's a good thing that's a

10:52good thing that's a good thing that's a good thing that's a good thing that's

10:52a good thing that's a good thing that's a good thing that's a good thing

10:53that's a good thing that's a good thing that's a good thing that's a good

10:53thing that's a good thing that's a good thing that's a good thing that's a

10:53good thing that's a good thing that's a good thing that's a good thing that's

10:53a good thing that's a good thing that I don't know.

10:53versus what the iranians get and what we wanted from the outset do you believe

10:57at the end oh like make it the end of this by the end of

11:02this year has iran given up the enriched uranium has iran agreed to give up

11:06its nuclear pursuit and is iran no longer in a position to choke us at

11:10the strait of hormuz okay so let's go through the order they basically have no

11:15air force they have no navy they have very limited ability to engage in any

11:22sort of aggressive act we destroyed their military right their military is done um if

11:28you take at their word and i think this is likely true right now we

11:32have satellite observation on all of their fuel cells all their uranium deposits everything that

11:40would be used to construct construct a nuclear bomb and if iran makes any effort

11:45to go and try to retrieve that which appears to be significantly buried under lots

11:49of topsoil based on attacks we would take action as we see fit so i

11:55think getting to the uranium enriching it all those things are going to be very

11:58difficult so i think we have effectively neutered iran's ability to impact in a significant

12:04way action in the middle east what i think is the most significant factor right

12:09now is who is making decisions and can we trust them to what extent do

12:14we believe remember go back in the early days of venezuela buck when delcy rodriguez

12:19came out and said oh they're still the american infidels and and then she's saying

12:25publicly one thing but privately she's basically doing whatever we want and we're not talking

12:30about venezuela in a significant way does someone have the sway in iran i don't

12:36care what they say about publicly in our country i don't care if they show

12:38up and they throw their fist in the air and they chant death to america

12:42privately are they being rational and negotiating with us in a productive way and does

12:49the person who we are negotiating with to your point buck actually have the wherewithal

12:54to control action in iran because it doesn't take much to blow up one of

12:59these fuel tankers and so if there are competing factions inside of iran to what

13:04extent is the leader able to actually lead and control what people in the country

13:09are doing we did this and there's a very detailed new york times piece take

13:13it for what it's worth whether you think they believe it or not but it

13:17a lot of it reads like what you would expect it to read like uh

13:20taking you inside some of those meetings i read this article too sometimes new york

13:24times articles read like fiction this to you and you've been in the rooms but

13:28this read like an accurate telling of what the debates surrounding this war would be

13:32yes it it sounds like somebody who was it sounds to me like somebody who

13:37was in the room told them now whenever someone does that of course they're usually

13:42the hero of the narrative and you know you could sort of piece some things

13:44together or they at least look the most astute um but i think the new

13:48york times piece largely aligns and i told you this at the time it talks

13:52about the little the op the idea of maybe getting the kurds involved which they

13:56say came from the israelis which i know from working the iraq issue for years

14:00was a complete non -starter and sure enough i was right but the fact that

14:04that came up or rather that the reporting is that that came up in the

14:08context of iran there were some pieces here that make me think that this is

14:13how it went down how their decision making process uh was laid out but clay

14:17we keep going around that this war was fought to stop iran from ever being

14:24able to go nuclear now we're being told more that it was to stop iran's

14:31ballistic missile force okay they're going to be able to rebuild that they're going to

14:38be able to count on the oil flow to fund buying from the russians buying

14:44from the chinese etc military hardware to get them back to where they were so

14:49i i know that we're supposed to believe that the destruction the ballistic missile capability

14:53is like some fantastic victory it's a victory i'm not discounting it our military did

14:58incredible things i'm not encounter that uh discounting that either but at the end of

15:03this do we have either a different regime or a regime that agrees to the

15:08terms with which we could go forward and say iran is not a nuclear threat

15:13anymore i don't think the answer to either of those questions is yes and i

15:19just have to be honest about that i don't think that we're in we're in

15:22place with either of those things if the incentive structure as we have talked about

15:27on the program is for iran to get nuclear weapons because it strengthens the ability

15:32and people in positions of power to stay there without external forces being able to

15:37remove them as exists in north korea is there anything that could occur that would

15:43lead to iran not pursuing nuclear weapons well this is but this is my my

15:48concern here is that we hit them with everything we could from the air as

15:52they told us as secretary hegseth has told us when we annihilated them with everything

15:56we could from the air we got to a point where it was well now

15:59we're just going to blow up your power plants and your you know your water

16:02treatment facilities and everything else that was what trump was talking about okay well that's

16:06that's not a good thing like that's not something you really want to do to

16:10a country of 90 million people and if that's where we are for the next

16:15round of punishment i don't know that we have a stick big enough so to

16:20speak you you to beat them into submission to give us what we want at

16:24the end of this deal.

16:25I think they're going to say to us, fine, hit us again, we'll close the

16:28straight. How long before your elections?

16:30That's my concern, Clay. I think they see what's going on here.

16:33I understand that concern. I think in the back of their mind, every leader in

16:38Iran knows that we can take them out, and I'm working under the capacity that

16:44we believe we have reached for Iran rational leadership that does have some control over

16:50the country. We'll see. I don't think we do.

16:52I don't think we have a different government.

16:54I don't think we have different people in charge.

16:56I think that that ship has sailed.

16:58Here is the test. To what extent do any of these oil and tankers get

17:03blown up? Because if they get blown up, then everyone purely economically is going to

17:09say we can't risk going through the Strait of Hormuz right now.

17:13I don't think it's a rational act on Iran's leadership's behalf to blow up oil

17:18and gas tankers right now, but if they do, either they are intransigent, not working

17:23with us, or they just don't have any control over the factions that are willing

17:27to do that. If I'm like the head of whatever's left of the IRGC leadership,

17:32Clay, and Trump in two weeks blows up my power plants, blows up truly civilian

17:39infrastructure, yeah, I'd blow up an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.

17:43I make this the whole world's problem real fast.

17:46You could blow up a bunch of them, and it would cost almost nothing in

17:51terms of the physical assets required to do so.

17:55And this is, my friends, this is a suicide bomber culture we're talking about here

17:59in the Middle East. They're willing to take a lot of pain to take other

18:02people down, so keep that in mind.

18:05You know how the Iranians used to clear minefields, Clay, in the Iran -Iraq war?

18:09Or they had a special cadre of humans who would run to save tanks.

18:16Yeah, the mortar brigades. They would clear the minefields by walking on them.

18:22And that's what we're dealing with, everybody.

18:25All right. Sorry, Buck is womp womp, but I'll always tell you the truth.

18:30I have my concerns. I love Trump.

18:31I love this country. I hope everything works out fantastically.

18:34Oil prices are dropping. That's good.

18:36But we're a long way from a victory dance in the end zone.

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19:33Three sector pals. Clay and Buck on the iHeart app.

19:36You know, in today's world, it's easy to feel overwhelmed.

19:39News cycles move faster than ever.

19:40Daily stress piles up. And uncertainty about the future can weigh heavily on our hearts.

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22:13Paid for by Public Investing.

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22:58All right, welcome back into Clay and Buck.

22:59Talking a lot about the Iran ceasefire.

23:01What comes next? The Trump administration declaring victory.

23:04The Iranian regime declaring victory.

23:06No surprise there. Let's hear from J .D.

23:09Vance on this one. Cut to If the Iranians are willing, in good faith, to

23:14work with us, I think we can make an agreement.

23:16If they're going to lie, if they're going to cheat, if they're going to try

23:19to prevent even the fragile truce that we've set up from taking place, then they're

23:24not going to be happy.

23:25Because what the president has also shown is that we still have clear military, diplomatic,

23:31and maybe most importantly, we have extraordinary economic leverage.

23:34The president has told us not to use those tools.

23:36He's told us to come to the negotiating table.

23:38But if the Iranians don't do the exact same thing, they're going to find out

23:41that the president of the United States is not one to mess around.

23:45He's impatient. He's impatient to make progress.

23:47He has told us to negotiate in good faith.

23:49And I think if they negotiate in good faith, we will be able to find

23:52a deal. But that's a big if.

23:53And ultimately, it's up to the Iranians how they negotiate.

23:56I hope they make the right decision.

23:58There's not going to be a deal.

24:00Tell you that right now.

24:00Mark that down. There's not going to be a deal that Iran concedes its nuclear

24:04program and gives away its rich uranium.

24:07Hold me to this one team.

24:09It's not going to be a deal.

24:10So just get ready for that.

24:12I'm curious. Well, we'll come back.

24:14I'll give you a question about this.

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25:14Speaking truth and having fun.

25:17Clay Travis and Buck Sexton.

25:19Welcome back in. Clay Travis, Buck Sexton show.

25:23By the way, news. We had both Clay Fuller and Sean Harris on in the

25:30Georgia 14 congressional district. That is North Georgia up near the Tennessee border.

25:36Clay Fuller winning by around 12 or 13 points.

25:40Votes are still being cast, but he has won to take over Marjorie Taylor Greene's

25:47seat. We had both those guys on Clay Fuller and Sean Harris.

25:50Um, and Clay Fuller has won.

25:53That race will be back again in, um, November as it's just a short period

25:59of time to be, uh, to be fulfilling.

26:02All right. Um, we got a couple of talkbacks.

26:05I'll get to those. Let me ask you a question, Buck.

26:08What if there is a wink, wink, nod, nod that Iran is not going to

26:13touch the uranium and we are able to say publicly, Hey, nuclear ambitions in Iran

26:20are over and Iran is able to say publicly, we didn't give up our nuclear

26:26ambitions, but there is an understanding that due to American air superiority, Iran doesn't have

26:32the ability to access what they had previously created.

26:36And that if they do attempt to do so, there will be significant consequences, but

26:41it will allow both sides to publicly claim victory.

26:47And, uh, the end result is one that we feel more comfortable with than the

26:52other. I think that's probably the most likely outcome here is that Iran says, Oh,

26:56we wanted the negotiating table.

26:58And America says, Oh, we wanted the negotiating table.

27:00And the question is, to what extent is that, uh, public statement consistent with private

27:08actions. So you think that we'll de facto get the nuclear concessions from Iran while

27:14they promised they're not going to give us.

27:16publicly the nuclear concessions i think that allows iran to save face with the leadership

27:22uh i don't think they're worried about saving face my man i think they think

27:25that they've got us on this straight of hormuz thing i i don't i think

27:29they took our best shot and they're looking at us and they're like all right

27:33what's next you're gonna nuke us what's next now by the way i know we're

27:36not going to do that but i'm just saying from their mentality what are we

27:39gonna do are we gonna start bombing them again in two weeks if there's no

27:43agreement you really think we're going to do we're really going to do that so

27:46here yes i think we will here is the problem that i see with the

27:49straight of hormuz um it's basically cutting their own throat if they don't allow the

27:55oil and gas to transfer through transit through the straight of hormuz the entire iranian

28:02economy is predicated on being able to sell oil and gas one of the craziest

28:06things about this entire military operation is they've continued to load oil and gas onto

28:13iranian ships and transit them through the straight of hormuz if i think if they

28:19are uh going to say hey we're not going to allow ships to come through

28:24this area we don't have to allow iranian ships out or we can go in

28:29and we can actually seize the iranian oil and gas infrastructure so i don't see

28:34their threat and by the way we've got to talk back on this i don't

28:37see their threat as viable because they can't exist as an economy unless they're able

28:45to sell oil and gas and their pain point i guess the question is to

28:49what extent is their pain point necessary i think at some point in time everyone

28:55will just say to iran you were starting to see this happen with the uae

28:58and other saudi arabian uh area countries other gulf countries countries they oil and gas

29:05has to flow and even there are reports that china was instrumental in getting this

29:11uh 14 day ceasefire negotiated because china needs the oil and gas coming out of

29:17iran so i don't see a world where iran can say we're going to shut

29:22down the strait of hormuz and actually be able to do it because i don't

29:27think there is a global support leave aside the united states china has to have

29:31this oil and gas uh a lot of other countries that are technically rivals of

29:36the united states much of europe has to have it i just don't see a

29:40world where they can actually shut it down now we've got a question on this

29:44so i understand that you don't see a world where they can shut down the

29:47strait no we've been in that world no i mean there's still ships coming through

29:52i don't think that they can and iranian ships have continued to come through i'm

29:57saying we can stop iran ships from coming through we can shut off iran's ability

30:02to make any money at all and this is but it's it's a little bit

30:06of clay like uh you know can can secaucus new jersey shut down shipping uh

30:13you know along its waterways better than some country that's thousands of miles away i

30:20mean they're they're right there that's why they have they know no but what i'm

30:23saying is we could if we needed to we could put a barricade up and

30:28we could say we're not going to allow any iranian oil to leave we are

30:32not going to allow them to access global markets at all i think iran needs

30:38oil and gas money more than uh than we do and again this is a

30:44lot of people have talked about this you know who's been celebrating the most in

30:46the united states over the war in iran texas oil people the amount of money

30:52that they are making when it's a hundred dollars a barrel as opposed to sixty

30:57dollars a barrel is through the roof and because america has energy independence we actually

31:03as a country benefit to some extent when oil and gas prices go up now

31:08because we are selling oil and gas on the global market and our businesses their

31:13profits skyrocket now individuals when it comes to what we have to pay on oil

31:17and gas uh have to pay more but a lot of that money stays in

31:21the country unlike in 1991 when we had to go to war in uh in

31:26in the middle east if we if we were confident we could stop iranian uh

31:31iranian ships from going through why wouldn't we just why wouldn't we do that right

31:35now i think we've been allowing those ships out because it puts more oil and

31:40gas on the marketplace if i were trump right now i would say they don't

31:44have the i don't know why i hadn't said it publicly what's more important shutting

31:48down iran entirely or putting more oil and gas in the global marketplace and well

31:52i think it i think it leads to the question of how long do you

31:55want to do it there is a pain point right and the pain point is

31:59significant in a midterm election cycle but iran the only way they get any money

32:05at all is by having oil and gas transit their ships have been transiting their

32:10threat is we'll hit other country ships which is why a lot of other countries

32:15have decided we aren't willing to run through the straight of four moves right now

32:19and take the risk which goes to so if we have the stronger hand which

32:22you seem to think that we do yeah i do why can't we get them

32:24to concede i think we have to figure out who we're actually negotiating with i

32:30think the people who lead iran are afraid that if they be if they are

32:34seen in iran as bending the knee to the united states then they lose power

32:39so that's why i think if you read this story they said the supreme leader

32:44who may be dead and may be in a coma, the new one, the Gayatola,

32:48actually made this decision. If you go read and you hear like, okay, who made

32:53the call to do this ceasefire?

32:55They are saying the Gayatola did it.

32:57I think he is right now a fiction that people in positions that are trying

33:02to angle for power in Iran are using as the guy who's making these deals.

33:07Because I think they're afraid that if you are seen as being in a good

33:12relationship with the United States and Israel, it's hard to have power.

33:16So we have to figure out who actually is capable of ruling Iran.

33:21And here's the day. Maybe there's not a person.

33:24I hope what you were saying is true.

33:27I don't see it that way.

33:29I think the Iranians feel like, oh, wow, we really can just shut down the

33:33strait. And Trump just blinked.

33:35And now we get to make crazy demands.

33:36And now we go into months and months of negotiation.

33:40Why? Let me ask you this.

33:41Why didn't they shut down the strait of Hormuz before?

33:45Because we weren't bombing everything in sight.

33:48What do you mean? Okay, but no, no, my question is, if you believe that

33:53you have this political asset and this political power, why did they not do it

33:58in June? Why have they not threatened to do it before?

34:01I mean, it clearly creates pain for them, but it creates pain for us.

34:05So they, this is like, who can bleed out faster is really the game we're

34:10talking about, or who bleeds out faster.

34:12And I think that's why I think it's Iran that bleeds out faster, because I

34:15don't think their world, if they aren't able to ship oil and gas, their entire

34:21world collapses within a month.

34:24I don't think our, look, does it stink to have to pay $4 a gallon

34:30of gas, as opposed to $2 and 80 cents a gallon of gas?

34:33I get that. But I don't think our overall economy is impacted anywhere near as

34:38much as Europe, as China, as many of the Middle Eastern states are.

34:44Yeah, but they're not playing, they're not, they're not trying to outlast our economy, Clay,

34:47they're trying to outlast our political will.

34:49They're trying to outlast the willingness of the president to subject the American people to

34:55high gas prices or instability in the Middle East or whatever this is, without getting

35:00absolutely annihilated in the midterm election, right?

35:04I mean, that's what they're playing.

35:05They're not playing, like, we're richer than they are, obviously.

35:08But I don't think Iran's economy works.

35:11If they don't, if they're not able to ship oil and gas out of the

35:15Strait of Hormuz for a month, I think their entire economy collapses.

35:20But that would mean, so you're saying, because then if they're not able to ship,

35:24no one's able to ship.

35:25Correct. I'm saying that our response to them, in my opinion, should be, hey, if

35:31you're going to not provide free passage to the Strait of Hormuz, then we are

35:35putting a U .S. aircraft carrier at the end of the Strait and no ships

35:39are getting out. That would be my response if I were.

35:43They're going to have a lot of target practice on that aircraft carrier.

35:45But yeah, sure. I mean, we can restrict.

35:48I mean, this this idea that only Iran has the ability to control ingress and

35:53egress in the Strait of Hormuz, I just don't buy.

35:55We have continued to allow Iranian ships out.

35:58They've continued to load oil and gas on Karg Island.

36:01If I were there and we truly think that they're going to restrict ingress and

36:06egress and we'll see what the trans transit looks like over the next couple of

36:10days, I would say we're not going to have a rule where Iran ships can

36:14come in and out as they did so desire.

36:17And meanwhile, no other countries are going to be able to go in and out.

36:21I don't think that's a tenable result.

36:24And so the reason they've been able to do that up to this point is

36:26because we've thought that they're crazy enough that they would actually blow up another country's

36:29oil tanker if they don't concede.

36:31Right. Or if they don't.

36:32Yeah. But by the way, the regime that they want now is that they get

36:34two million dollars a boat for every boat that goes into the Strait of Hormuz.

36:38Correct. That's that's what they're demanding.

36:39And now Trump is saying we'll split the money.

36:41I, you know, again, that's the most Trump thing ever.

36:45Oh, my God. Trump has said like, hey, if they're going to charge two million,

36:48we'll take one of that and we'll get, you know, part of the money, too.

36:52Look, I just think their their hand is not as strong because we have been

36:55pretty kind and letting their boats to continue to transit.

36:58I think it's crazy. I think a lot of people don't even realize this.

37:01They've continued to run their oil and gas facilities like normal while we've been bombing

37:06the bejesus. This is why we don't have the leverage that we've we've this is

37:10why we haven't been able to force a concession.

37:11By the way, we went through this with Russia, too.

37:14Oh, we're going to we're going to bring Russia.

37:16I remember we were doing the show together.

37:18Remember? Oh, Russia is going to be brought to its knees.

37:21Oh, they're going to be kicked out of the international financial system.

37:25Russia can't fight this war for long against Ukraine, blah, blah, blah.

37:28Bull oil, gas, money talks, BS walks.

37:32Russia's been able to continue fighting this war and then some despite all of the

37:36maximum pressure campaign. Well, because we let them sell their oil and gas.

37:41So we're not actually saying, but so we're not actually really trying to grab them

37:45by the balls. It's a lot of public posturing, but we let them we couldn't

37:49stop Russia from selling oil and gas to China.

37:52We let them sell their oil and gas to India and then we let India

37:57mark it up a little bit.

37:58It's a great business for the Indian people, right?

38:00Because they get Russian oil and gas at a discount.

38:02They mark it up a little bit and then they basically launder it through the

38:06global marketplace. I just I don't believe that Iran uh if we say, okay, your

38:13oil and gas isn't getting out either.

38:15You've got to remember, Russia, Clay, we're talking pipelines, right?

38:18I mean, a lot of China's natural gas comes through overland pipelines, so that's a

38:21difference, right? So unless we're going to start blowing up Russia's pipeline.

38:25By the way, I think they would actually get crazy on us.

38:29This is why Ukraine blew up the Nord Stream pipeline to try to restrict the

38:33ability of oil and gas.

38:36I'm not sure that worked out for us the way that we had hoped that

38:39it would. So you think, well, we'll come back, and we'll continue to take your

38:44talkbacks. We'll see where we are in two weeks.

38:46I think in two weeks they're going to say, negotiations are going great.

38:50Iran, we beat them, we won.

38:52We're going to keep talking for another 60 days.

38:54We'll come back to this.

38:55I think that's where this is heading.

38:57So you think that, but the question is, in the meantime, is the Strait of

39:01Hormuz open? Because we'll find that out pretty quickly.

39:04I think Iranians are going to start operating like a toll business in the Strait

39:08of Hormuz in the meantime.

39:09That's what I think is going to happen.

39:10They'll be like, look, we're not stopping ships.

39:12We're getting basically reparations for the war America started, so pay us.

39:16I don't understand or believe necessarily that Iran hasn't been doing that in the past,

39:25taking cuts. Well, there are other countries that are on the Strait, Clay, so they'd

39:28be pissing off a lot of their, like, it's not actually their waterway, right?

39:32But now they're treating it like their waterway.

39:33Which is why, again, I come back to, I think if we actually say we're

39:37not going to allow Iranian oil and gas out either, that that would change in

39:41a hurry. Because I just don't, that's their only economy at this point.

39:46And they can barely even keep the lights on.

39:48They actually have more than just oil.

39:50It's 20 % of GDP.

39:51It's a lot. I mean, I'm not saying it's, I think it's like 60 %

39:55of their exports is oil.

39:56But, yeah. They are so inefficient, even with the oil and gas that they produce,

40:01that they can't keep electricity on in the country, even before we bombed them a

40:05ton. They were stopping kids from going to school because they couldn't afford to run

40:10power and surges or issues and everything else.

40:14I know, but don't underestimate their ability to suffer.

40:16All right, so you guys are getting sort of both sides of this view.

40:19So there you go. I mean, and let me just be very clear.

40:22I hope Clay is right and that there is a secret, rational group inside of

40:26Iran that will make the concessions we want, not admit to them, get a deal

40:30going. Trump wins. It would be the biggest international relations slash military strike victory in

40:38a very long time. And it would be incredible.

40:41I don't think that's how this is going to play out, unfortunately.

40:45I'm optimistic. I just think that rationality at some level is going to play out.

40:51But we will see. We'll see what I'm about to get lit up in the

40:53talk back. Someone's going to be like, Buck is insane.

40:55Amazing win. The biggest win ever.

40:57It's huge, huge win. All right, fine.

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45:46Welcome back in here to Clay and Buck.

45:48We got a quick turnaround, so we can come back, maybe take some calls and

45:51talkbacks. What do you think, Clay?

45:53Is that a good way to handle it?

45:54Are you in, really? Yes, I'm sure that we are deluged right now, and I

45:58can see every line ringing, and I'm sure we've gotten an unbelievable amount of talkbacks.

46:02So we'll get into those for the next hour and hear what you guys think.

46:06What do you think about the Iran ceasefire, which is where things stand right now?

46:10And then also, I want to talk about some immigration stuff, including an effort with

46:16a number of GOP members of Congress to try to get what is an amnesty.

46:21It's a straight -up amnesty.

46:22Don't listen to anybody who's trying to tell you otherwise.

46:24It's an amnesty bill passed, which shows you how quickly the GOP will betray the

46:28base. And then, Clay, some wild stuff about fraud in California that's out there now.

46:35One doctor billing $270 million just in California to Medi -Cal in fraud.

46:43We should talk about this stuff.

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Weekly Review With Clay and Buck H1 - Don't Panic and Listen to Us