The Truth with Lisa Boothe: Midterm Election Warning Signs: Voter Trust, Iran War Impact & GOP Turnout Strategy
4/14/202622 mincomplete
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast.
0:02Guaranteed human. Welcome to The Truth with Lisa Booth, where we get to the heart
0:07of the issues that matter to you.
0:09Today we're talking midterms. The party in charge typically always runs into some sort of
0:14buzzsaw in the midterm elections.
0:16How big is that buzzsaw going to be?
0:19You can go back to 2018 during President Trump's first midterm cycle and Democrats picked
0:25up 41 seats in the House.
0:26Is that the kind of landscape that we're in right now?
0:30We're going to lean on Jessica Anderson, the president of the Sentinel Action Fund.
0:34Her group was pivotal in 2024 with driving out early voters, low propensity voters, and
0:40a lot of the key Senate races there.
0:42So we're going to lean on her.
0:43What is she saying for the upcoming midterm elections?
0:46Her group has done focus groups as well.
0:48What are voters saying? A lot of key issues with the war in Iran, with
0:54the economy, with gas prices, the list goes on.
0:58So what does it all mean?
1:00Are there troubling early warning signs?
1:02Or is it being overblown?
1:04We're going to ask Jessica about all of this and more.
1:08Stay tuned for Jessica Anderson, president of the Sentinel Action Fund.
1:16Well, Jessica, it's great to have you back on the show.
1:19I'm a little bit worried about our conversation because I'm starting to get a little
1:23nervous about the midterms coming up.
1:26Jessica, as you know, the party in charge always kind of runs into a buzzsaw
1:31in the midterm elections. The question is, how big is the buzzsaw going to be?
1:37How big do you think it will be?
1:40Well, thanks for having me.
1:41And I think it's just really important to remind everyone it's April of election year.
1:46So there's plenty of time.
1:48The election is not next week.
1:50And some of the kind of atmospheric and environmental things that we're seeing show up
1:55in polling. We're seeing it both in private and public polling that might show loss
1:59of trust on the issues with Republicans.
2:02There's plenty of time to talk about the issues we know voters care about, remind
2:07them of the contrast with Democrats, and then show the urgency of turning out in
2:12November. So, you know, I think the conventional Washington, D .C.
2:17knowledge is always that the midterms go bad for the sitting party in power.
2:21But I've said this for a year, and I still think this today, if anyone
2:25can defy the odds, it's going to be President Trump.
2:27And he has every tool at his disposal, I think, to do that, to flip
2:33conventional wisdom on its side.
2:37But I think for him to do that, we've got to get Republicans.
2:40And I put we in the collective here, my organization, Sentinel Action Fund.
2:44We have to do the hard work right now about talking about the good things
2:49that are happening and what we've seen from President Trump of him being a fighter.
2:54And being a fighter is exactly what shows up in every poll, every focus group.
3:00After the 2024, you know, after action reports, everything is, is Washington going to fight?
3:07Are they going to fight at the border with crime, with our foreign adversaries, with
3:10the economy? And so if we can message properly like that, couple it with reminding
3:18people the fear of the Democratic agenda and what the flip side of this is,
3:23chaos with impeachment, open borders, social experiments on kids, huge spikes and increases in taxes,
3:31we can remind all of that with voters, then Republicans will be fine.
3:35And it won't be it won't be a bloodbath.
3:38I think on the Senate, there's there's very much an option to hold the majority
3:43at 53. Maybe a seat changes here or there.
3:46But there's even a path that we could add a seat like Mike Rogers in
3:50Michigan or Johnson -New -New in New Hampshire to pick up opportunities.
3:55You know, Georgia's got a primary.
3:56If that primary can get settled, then we'll know who's going after John Ossoff and
4:01how much time do we have to go after him.
4:03So there's a lot of factors, I think, that are at play right now with
4:08it being this early. But certainly it is.
4:10The mood is definitely felt with voters and they're looking for more.
4:13I guess, you know, I hear you on President Trump defying the odds, but he's
4:19not on the ballot driving turnout this midterm.
4:22And I think that is what worries me because you look at, I saw somewhere
4:26that the Democrats have flipped around 30 GOP -held state legislative seats since last January.
4:34And we've not seen that movement the other way around.
4:37You know, you look at the election cycle, November 2025 and, you know, Democrats have
4:44been motivated to get out and vote.
4:46And I just, I worry that Republicans don't share the same enthusiasm.
4:50He's definitely, the president's definitely going to have to campaign as if he, as if
4:56it was a presidential election.
4:57He's going to have to get out there in the battleground states, in the 12
5:01to 20 house congressional battleground districts.
5:05He's going to have to get out there because he's not on the ballot, but
5:08every single one of his policies are.
5:11And the fear of the Democratic agenda is.
5:14And so he is uniquely positioned to unlock this.
5:19And I think Susie Wiles, the chief of staff, had this comment, maybe it's probably
5:23been two months from now.
5:24She was doing an interview and she made a joke about, you know, the president
5:28doesn't know it yet, but he's going to treat this year as if it was
5:30a presidential year. And I think we should expect to see that, that he's going
5:33to hit the road. And I think tomorrow, April 15th, is a really pivotal day
5:38that, you know, all Republicans have been waiting on, which is tax day.
5:42And we're going to see these record high refunds with no help from the Democrats.
5:48Every single one of them voted against the one big, beautiful bill that delivered these
5:52tax cuts. And that is going to be meaningful.
5:55And Trump is going to have to connect those dots, standing shoulder to shoulder with
5:59the Senate candidates. And then outside groups, the party, we will come in and say,
6:05look, voters, we have an amazing opportunity to do our civic duty for President Trump
6:10and for America's flourishing the next two years.
6:13And we got to get to the polls because no one wants two more years
6:17of two years of impeachment and chaos.
6:20It's already challenging on Capitol Hill.
6:23And, you know, we do these focus groups with independents, Lisa, and even independents in
6:28states like Maine and North Carolina and Michigan.
6:31They're all like, we don't want to see the Democratic chaos of two years of
6:35impeachment. That is like their number one thing that they're voting against.
6:39So I think that's going to also come into play as we get closer here
6:44to November. Got to take a quick commercial break.
6:46More with Jessica on the other side.
6:50You know, you look at, I think it was in the 2018 Democrats picked up
6:5541 seats. The generic ballot was around like eight to 12 points at the time.
7:00You know, today it's closer to six, D plus six in the real clear politics
7:04average. So not quite there yet where Democrats were at this point when they picked
7:10up 41 seats, but not too far away.
7:14How much time does, you know, you look at pulling on the economy and Americans
7:18have some real concerns and they're not feeling the enthusiasm there.
7:23How much time does President Trump have?
7:26You know, and he even said recently that gas prices, we might not see much
7:29improvement before the midterms. So, I mean, what do you do about those perceptions on
7:35the economy? Right now, the messaging and we're seeing some of it already change from
7:41the White House. But right now it's got to change because voters need to know
7:46that what they're hearing is honest.
7:48And so I actually think it was smart for the president to say, look, gas
7:51prices might be rough for the next three, four weeks.
7:57But we're doing it because we want safety and security, not only here at home,
8:02but abroad. And we're doing it because taking making sure that Iran does not have
8:08a nuclear weapon or capability is something that I said on the campaign trail 78
8:13times. Like this is not a new commitment.
8:15So I actually think when the president is honest with voters and is not kind
8:21of painting a picture that is divorced from their reality, that that builds back the
8:26trust. But that second part is so important.
8:29Like if we're going to have higher prices at the pump, we need to know
8:33why. And the more that the White House comes out and explains and is transparent
8:38and puts those cameras, like I saw the cameras inside the talks with Marco Rubio
8:43today, like the more cameras are in there and there's transparency about what we're fighting
8:47for in Iran and why it matters, the more likely voters are willing to take
8:53the extra costs. And I heard this a lot a couple of years ago when
8:57Republicans were, you know, really talking about securing the border, much of Washington and kind
9:03of the chattering class was like, well, that's going to increase costs and the price
9:08of goods that are coming in from Mexico.
9:09And the grassroots, I'm telling you, Lisa, if I heard it once, I heard it
9:1310 times of the sentiment of, well, I'll pay more for, you know, the cost
9:17of an avocado if it means my border is safe.
9:19Well, avocados are a luxury, gas is a necessity, so it's a little different, but
9:24the same sort of mindset I think prevails here, which is the more the White
9:28House explains our goals in Iran and what the progress has been and why it
9:34connects back to Venezuela and then why it looks forward to China and Russia and
9:39why we want global peace and stability for a regime that has yelled death to
9:44America for decades. And four presidents behind us have sought to fix this, and he's
9:48the first one to do it.
9:50The more we can explain that, the more likely voters are to trust that the
9:53president is fighting for them and has their best interests.
9:56But when we just say, when we ignore the gas prices and we tell people
10:00that they're crazy or that it's better than they think, that's, I think, where we
10:04actually lose that trust with voters, which is what we're going to need this summer
10:08to really mount a campaign to win in the fall.
10:13Look, I'm for the war, but I'm not sure if Americans view that as a
10:17fair trade -off on Iran.
10:20You know, the border is our border, right?
10:21So that directly affects us as a country and the people coming into here and
10:26our safety and our sovereignty, whereas the war against Iran is, you know, a long,
10:34far away, right, in the Middle East.
10:36Yeah, I don't know if he can convince, yeah, I don't know, I'm not sure
10:41if he can convince Americans that that's a fair trade -off.
10:45I don't know. I think that's playing out, and I think it's playing out within
10:48the Republican Party. Some are, some.
10:52share that sentiment. Others don't.
10:54I'm supportive of the war, but I'm just viewing, thinking about it at large of
10:59people who, you know, might not, might not accept that as an excuse, I guess.
11:06And that's the challenge I think that the White House has right now.
11:10And they are, I think they've increased their messaging of the why.
11:14They've been very specific about how Iran has, you know, killed Americans and been the
11:19world's leading sponsor of terrorism and why holding them accountable is a win for American
11:25interests. And I go back to the, you know, the president's long, long standing view
11:31of Iran not to have nuclear capabilities or a nuclear weapon.
11:35I mean, that is not new.
11:37That predates even him going down the golden escalator.
11:40And so, you know, I think the why really matters and what the White House
11:45is hedging on is that people will trust kind of the fighter instincts in Trump
11:50to make that trade -off, right?
11:52To make the trade -off on the economy.
11:53But if you don't talk about it, then you're just left with rice, you know,
11:57with gas prices that are increasing every day.
12:00And then, and then they're left unanswered.
12:03So he's got to, he's got to try.
12:04And I think that's what I've been pleased to see with the White House kind
12:08of shift some of their messaging the last two or three weeks, as we've gotten
12:11further into this, further into this conflict.
12:15Now, I hear what you're saying.
12:16I agree with you on that.
12:17I just don't know if people buy it, you know, you know, you were a
12:22central action fund. You guys were one of the groups that very helpful in getting
12:26Republicans across the finish line and the presidential that will not in the, but with
12:31the, you know, Senate races and, and other races that were happening in the presidential
12:35cycle. What are we, what are we doing in terms, are we committed to the
12:40same turnout operation that we saw in the presidential election and getting people to get
12:44out and vote early, particularly with mail -in balloting as well?
12:48You know, what does that turnout operation look like for the midterms?
12:52Well, we've, we've got to do both.
12:54So base voters are definitely going to have to turn out.
12:57And I think the campaigns and the RNC and the president's apparatuses are the best
13:03in the best position to talk directly to the base and encourage them to turn
13:08out. What outside groups like Sentinel Action Fund, what we did last cycle, and what
13:12we're planning to do this cycle is to look at those, what's called low propensity
13:17voters. So they're registered Republicans, but they don't vote consistently.
13:21And those types of voters, they take time.
13:24And so they take time and they need multiple kind of ways to vote.
13:29And so we like to talk to them about how to vote, where to vote,
13:32why to vote. And then we slowly start bringing in the candidates once we've established
13:37that, okay, it's worth voting, right?
13:39So the trust aspect is so important in this sort of turnout operation, because we
13:44have to have trust with these voters that they know that their vote counted.
13:48Like, what did they get for their, what did they get for their vote last
13:51time? If that was the first time they ever voted in 2024, and we're asking
13:55them to come out again in 2026.
13:56Well, one of the big things that they got is that the tax refunds that
14:00are coming out tomorrow are 11 % higher this year.
14:03And this is, you know, a record breaking number.
14:06The average tax return is about 3 ,700 this year.
14:09I mean, that's awesome. And you couple that with the border being secure with the
14:14D -reg agenda, and you go to the winds, right?
14:17I think of it as like, we're on second base, we're around in the corner,
14:21we're on our way to third.
14:23It's not a home run yet, but the economy is turning around and parts of
14:27the economy are doing very well.
14:29You look at the jobs numbers.
14:30I know we've talked a lot about that with over a hundred and what, 78
14:35,000 new jobs in March, well above expectations.
14:39So you talk about the things that are working, you do it now.
14:43And so we're in a position where we are trying to talk to these about
14:47four and a half million low propensity voters spread out over the six major Senate
14:54battleground races. So that's Maine, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, New Hampshire, those six races,
15:02we are talking to them now.
15:04So we've launched Michigan, we've launched Maine, we're getting ready to launch Ohio, and we
15:10need to talk to them at least 30 times.
15:12So the touches and the conversations at the door and over text message and through
15:18the mail, you know, that can't be condensed after Labor Day, you would, you would
15:23annoy, you would annoy voters if you had, you know, 30 incoming mailers and in
15:29two days, that would be terrible, right?
15:30So you need time to talk to the voters to turn them out.
15:35And we think that the best way these low propensity voters can vote is to
15:38give them the options. If you can't stand in line on election day, skip the
15:42line and vote early. The military uses absentee balloting all the time.
15:47If you have a reasonable excuse to use it, use it.
15:50And, and I think that gives us, it kind of widens the aperture for how
15:54voters are voting. And then of course, election day is the insurance policy.
15:59All of these low prop voters, of course, they can still vote on election day.
16:02So if they haven't voted earlier, if they haven't voted absentee, then they've got that
16:07shot on election day and we can drive them to the polls.
16:09And the data has gotten so sophisticated.
16:11I mean, we can literally track these voters all the way up.
16:14And then once they vote, you know, we stopped, we stopped bothering them, so to
16:18speak, right? We can thank them for voting i encourage them to get their neighbors
16:21their family members whatever to vote as well so um we're launching this we've launched
16:26this effort we're committed to it we're excited to work with so many great partners
16:29like the rnc and slf and nrsc and the campaigns i think you're going to
16:34see a lot more from kind of the infrastructure side rollout now that we're getting
16:39into the summer months where this sort of engagement really matters quick break stay with
16:43us do you like what you're hearing please share on social media or send it
16:46to your family and friends political port recently moved some of the senate races um
16:54a little further to the left uh north carolina senate race went from toss -up
16:58to lean d uh georgia senate race went from toss -up to lean d um
17:03ohio senate race lean r to toss -up uh um yes so what what do
17:10you what do you agree with that assessment or i think that those sorts of
17:16moves are indicative of looking at macro polling which shows that the environment is a
17:22challenge for republicans i don't know that these sorts of moves are really reflective of
17:28how much time republicans have to win back that trust and to champion the things
17:35that have gone well so there's it's a snapshot in the moment you know i
17:40expect that cook political report will probably change these again in 30 days and that's
17:44just the nature of of the cycle i mean i think in each of these
17:48states there's really unique things that are going on you look at north carolina moving
17:51from a toss -up to a lean d well the influx of independence in that
17:57state that is the fight the fight is for what what's going to happen to
18:01those independent voters will they vote for whatley who is trump's endorsed pick or will
18:06they vote for cooper you know an extremist democrat who's going to run as a
18:10moderate and that's where i go back to what if independents in north carolina been
18:15telling us they don't want two years of chaos with impeachment and so they are
18:19up for grabs for for ohio i mean that's a state that is going to
18:23be won and lost based on the low propensity voter turnout if registered republicans that
18:29don't vote consistently turn out then senator houston returns to the senate it's that simple
18:35and i think you've got to look at the math for the numbers of the
18:38voter population in the state and you kind of have to grin and bear it
18:42through the atmosphere but stick to what's been working stick to the wins from president
18:47trump be honest about where we're at and then remember that we have time to
18:51get in front of these voters through the summer and then before we go we
18:55also have a lot of money um republicans have done really well with fundraising um
19:00i think it was the nrcc broke uh beat the um d triple c and
19:05like broke records recently maga inc um has i think over 300 million dollars um
19:13i want to say you know and so uh the rnc out raising the dnc
19:18i mean money's obviously not everything but it helps uh you know what kind of
19:25advantage do you think that money will have the cycle well it's it's never really
19:31a place that republicans are used to being and usually republicans are outraised and outspent
19:36by the left and so i actually think it's a testament to how broad the
19:42trump coalition is that you have small dollar investments to wall street investments that are
19:47saying no we don't want two years of democratic chaos with impeachment we want trump
19:52to have a partner in the senate and the house and we're going to fight
19:54like hell to make that happen and so you know that that sort of sign
20:00and indicator that people are giving is an early indicator that the base is going
20:05to come home and vote in november so i think it's it's not just the
20:09money of course the dollars will go further and they'll be spent wisely but it's
20:13it's it's what does the money represent well it represents a partnership and and belief
20:19and trust that republicans can pull this off like really against the odds and frankly
20:23in a tough environment right now so i was i saw the the congressional committee's
20:29numbers this morning too and i was thrilled to see them i think it's really
20:33great because the house races are a whole different ball game and obviously mike johnson's
20:36in the fight of his life to keep the majority in place and i think
20:40every day there's a new scandal on the democratic side that shakes the numbers up
20:44again and so we may be fighting numbers that are changing all the way up
20:50till all the way up till october i mean who knows how this is going
20:52to shake out um and then of course with redistricting so i think there's a
20:56lot of a lot of investments being on the house for good reason um and
21:00on the senate side you know the good thing is is these at least in
21:03these six battleground states there's 12 house races that overlap and so the fight is
21:10going to be in these same places and and the the need and the urgency
21:14to go deeper to talk to those voters and more money allows more touches it
21:19allows more sophisticated communication better metrics better targeting better data all of that is good
21:26and i think it's an early indicator that the base is going to be there
21:29for the president yeah and if you're driving turnout for the senate races hopefully those
21:34votes carry down to the congressional races as well jessica anderson president of the sentinel
21:38action fund thanks for breaking this all down for us we really appreciate it absolutely
21:42thanks for having me that was jessica anderson president of the sentinel action fund appreciate
21:47her for coming on the show appreciate you guys at home for listening every tuesday
21:50and thursday but you can listen throughout the week also want to thank john casio
21:54my producer for putting the show together until next time this is an iheart podcast
22:02guaranteed human