The Manosphere Report

0:00all right everybody welcome back to the number one podcast in the world it's the

0:03all -in podcast david sachs couldn't make it this week but we have the trio

0:08david freeberg is here your sultan of science jamaht palya apatia spacex filed confidentially to

0:15go public on april 1st targeting a 1 .75 trillion with the t valuation when

0:24spacex goes public if it's at that 1 .75 uh trillion dollar valuation so weird

0:30to say trillion dollar valuation for an ipm uh they would be the eighth largest

0:34company in the world right behind tsmc and saudi aramco they're both worth 1 .7

0:39x uh at the taping of this podcast tesla is number 10 with 1 .37

0:45trillion dollar valuation hey if you were to combine those two as many people are

0:49speculating will happen at some point and you can buy the stock ticker elon that

0:54would be a 3 .1 trillion dollar company and that would make them the fourth

0:58largest company ahead of microsoft they're aiming to raise jamaht 75 billion which would be

1:04the by far the biggest raise ever in an ipo uh expected to go out

1:08in june i think they were trying to hit the 420 date because that would

1:11have been even more hilarious but uh they're not going to be able to do

1:14that spacex uh recently acquired x .ai for 250 billion that includes x and twitter

1:22and the xai large language model ai company starlink generating between 50 and 80 percent

1:28of spacex's revenue will have all those details shortly um and it'll be close to

1:3320 billion dollars a year according to reports launch of rockets is the other 40

1:39percent of the business 5 billion in 2024 according to reports total revenue 2025 15

1:45to 16 billion with 8 billion in profit according to reuters so let's stop there

1:50uh and we're going to talk about all the other ipos that could be coming

1:53uh tramal i think people really want to know and you may have mentioned this

1:58on an earlier episode what are the chances that tesla after if this ipo goes

2:02well that tesla and spacex could wind up being the same company we saw they're

2:06collaborating 100 on a fab 100 is what you're putting it on okay okay sorry

2:11let me let me be clear 99 .999 okay what will that mean when if

2:19those two companies or when those two companies merge one of the great things that

2:25happened in my career was there was a point where you know how like you

2:28grind at a level and then you know you just get exposed to things at

2:32a different level and then you grind for years and you get exposed to things

2:35at yet another level in one of those steps i was very fortunate to be

2:41introduced by thomas lafont actually to the head of wachtel lipton there's a law firm

2:47law firm and his name is ed hurley and he said this is the most

2:54important well -known well -run powerful law firm in america then i looked at the

3:00transactions and they're just in the middle of everything and now you know my lawyer

3:04raj narian who does everything for me one of the senior partners at wachtel i

3:09can attest are incredible and they said to me in the middle of all of

3:12this stuff when i was doing a bunch of deals they said chamath just get

3:17ready to pay a tax and i said what does that mean they said the

3:22way that the american capital markets are set up is both that you can be

3:26incredibly creative and do incredible things but and we talked about this a little bit

3:31last week there's a bunch of tort that allows folks to hang around the hoop

3:36and get paid no matter you you you you You see this in all IPOs.

3:40Shareholder lawsuits abound. And they try to create a class out of it.

3:44And the reason they do that is that there's D &O insurance that then will

3:47pay out some number of millions of dollars.

3:50The attorneys take 40 or 50 percent, and then these plaintiffs get a few bucks.

3:53You saw how egregious this tort manipulation was when this guy with 10 shares sued

3:59Elon's comp package at Tesla and won.

4:01And what was that really?

4:03That was the trial lawyers trying to get paid hundreds of millions of dollars by

4:07exploiting a scene. It was a shakedown.

4:09It was a shakedown. Why am I bringing this up?

4:11If you take the Raj and Ed example of this, this SpaceX IPO is going

4:17to set up a couple of things.

4:18The first is there's going to be the natural noise in the market.

4:22And Elon will have to sort through all of the little ticky tacky things.

4:26But the most important positive thing that will happen from the IPO is a validated

4:31external mark to market valuation of SpaceX.

4:36And the market every day in real time gives you a valid mark to market

4:41assessment of the value of Tesla.

4:44And this allows you to put these two things together to minimize these losses.

4:49And I think that that's what Elon really needs.

4:52It'll make his life tremendously simpler from a governance perspective.

4:58It'll make the companies and this quibbling about his time a non -issue.

5:05Because again, nobody talks about Zuck or Satya or Sundar or Jensen allocating time across

5:15various projects inside of Meta or Google or Microsoft or NVIDIA.

5:20Nor should they really make this claim from Elon.

5:23Because as you're seeing, there's actually an enormous overlap and commonality to the various things

5:30that he is doing. He's building the robots, but they're used inside of SpaceX.

5:34He's building a terafab, they're used inside of Tesla.

5:37He's building XAI, they're used across both.

5:39So I think we need to do this.

5:42It'll minimize the shareholder noise because it'll give less room to somebody that says, hey,

5:46he set a valuation out of thin air.

5:48But dollars to donuts, these things are going to merge.

5:51And it speaks to the singularity that's going on right now.

5:55You know, you had a car company, you had a space company.

5:57Okay, that was a pretty, how do those two things overlap?

6:01And it's like AI, data centers in space, where do you get chips from?

6:05And then actually going to raw materials inside of one factory, going out the other

6:10and having discussed it with Elon many times.

6:13What he learned, you know, at Tesla or SpaceX about advanced materials informed different products

6:20at the different companies. And now you just, you'll have all of that in one

6:23place. And then you think about the brain trust that he built at those two

6:25companies, plus Boring Company, plus Neuralink.

6:28Like, if they're all in there, all this cross -disciplinary learning is going to compound

6:34and compound and compound. Elon knows more about factories than probably anybody, like some people

6:41in China who have, you know, Foxconn knows a lot about factories, you know.

6:45So there are some people who know as much or probably even a little bit

6:48more about some aspects of it.

6:49But that's a true advantage of bringing those two teams together.

6:52And you saw it, people would go from one company to the other.

6:55Freeberg, my question for you, very acutely with your NASA hat and, you know, your

7:00background today is 20 years ago, he started trying to get to space with SpaceX.

7:07And here we go, there's more rockets going off in a month now than there

7:11are days in the month for the entire country.

7:14And he's got rockets going up every two.

7:16three days, you can just basically hop on a SpaceX flight and get to space.

7:21Maybe you could just use your vision there to tell the audience, what could things

7:26look like in another 20 years if SpaceX continues at this cadence or even, you

7:31know, goes faster because of AI?

7:33Well, this week's a pretty important milestone for that point, because we just launched Artemis

7:39two yesterday, which is man's returning to the moon.

7:43So the United States shipped this rocket with four astronauts on board, they're going to

7:49do an orbit around the earth, head to the moon, come back around and come

7:54back to earth in anticipation of landing on the moon in about two years.

7:58And getting to the moon, I think is going to be very important, not just

8:02because there's this important social milestone and race happening on right now with China.

8:08But I think the moon could end up being kind of the next industrial frontier

8:12for humanity. And the reason is, if you can get to the moon, the moon

8:17has an extraordinary abundance of material that we can mine, process and manufacture into goods.

8:24And ultimately, the cost to ship those goods back to the earth is zero.

8:29It will cost less to move goods, manufactured goods, processed or precious metals from the

8:37moon to a specific point on earth, it will cost less to do that than

8:41to ship it using any other terrestrial conventional method, whether that's a boat, an airplane,

8:46or a railroad. And the reason is that on the moon, you can take advantage

8:51of the low gravity, it's about one sixth of gravity and the complete lack of

8:55an atmosphere, meaning that it's frictionless to move material off of the moon, and very

9:00low energy to move it off of the moon, you do not need to use

9:04a rocket propellant with high energy like we have to do to move things off

9:08of the earth. In fact, the design for moving material off of the moon is

9:12to use what's called a mass driver, which is like a train track, like a

9:16rail, like an electric rail, you kind of see these in, you know, high speed

9:20trains that work on kind of magnetic levitation.

9:23And you could put a package on that rail, and use electricity to accelerate that

9:28package to 100 g force, shoot it back to the earth, or theoretically shoot it

9:32to Mars, and it will go to the exact point on the earth you want

9:35it to go to, reenters the atmosphere and lands with a simple parachute where you

9:40want it to go. So we could run continuous mining, continuous manufacturing processes on the

9:44moon at a fraction of the cost of what it would take to do it

9:47here on earth. The biggest limiting factor, getting people to the moon.

9:51And that is largely solved or will be solved in the next few years by

9:54robotics. So I think that there's this pretty profound intersection with what's going on in

9:58robotics, with this moment for space industrialization and moving to the moon.

10:04So, you know, Tesla, I think 20 years from now is actually a more interesting

10:08story, whether they're the same independent company or the same company, I think we're going

10:12to look back one day and have this kind of laughing observation that Tesla started

10:17out as an electric car company, ended up becoming an autonomous car company.

10:22And the autonomous competency is what led to the robotics revolution.

10:25And the robotics revolution, even if the socialists ban robotics on earth and tell us

10:31no robots allowed, they're taking all the jobs, you could ship all those robots to

10:34the moon and they could get to work and create an entirely new manufacturing frontier

10:39for our civilization, for humanity.

10:42That frontier can manufacture precious metals and other goods and ship them back.

10:45You could manufacture semiconductors on the moon.

10:47All that's missing is the robots.

10:49So moving the robots to the moon or setting up the materials for robots to

10:53build themselves on the moon is They currently are a stay -نا能 inner player of

10:55the eux самое. I don't have this purpose in the environment.

10:55So that would make those of the first phase of this transition, you know, asking

10:57about 20 years from now.

10:58And then the next phase is building this all out.

11:00So look, I mean, I think that this may not be, and it certainly won't

11:03be limited to just SpaceX, but SpaceX is demonstrating its capacity at being effectively the

11:08railroads. You know, what the railroads were to the West and to the frontier in

11:12the West, you know, in the last generation, SpaceX will be to the moon and

11:16ultimately to Mars. And there's going to be an extraordinary abundance of production that's going

11:20to come out of the moon.

11:21The moon has everything, by the way.

11:22And I'll say one more thing about SpaceX.

11:23SpaceX has also created, and this is going to be a big part of the

11:27valuation analysis that many are doing.

11:29They've created a backup to the internet.

11:31You know, the internet is fundamentally limited by all of the nodes on the network

11:35and the connectivity amongst all those nodes.

11:37And that connectivity is largely driven by copper and fiber optic cable.

11:41So in space, with the number of satellites going up with Starlink and to actually

11:46deploy data centers that can output data on those nodes on that network, SpaceX has

11:51largely built a backup internet.

11:53And that backup internet can coincide with the Earth's internet, but it creates this extraterrestrial

11:58communication network that gives us theoretically the ability to think about, hey, if governments collapse,

12:03if there's civilizational upheaval, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.

12:06This becomes, I think, a fundamentally kind of important technology infrastructure that's going to exist

12:11in parallel. So I'm pretty excited about like these two separate paths for SpaceX and

12:17where they intersect with Tesla.

12:18I think it's pretty profound at the moment.

12:20Yeah. And it can't be understated what lowering the cost per kilogram to get to

12:26space has done to entrepreneurs around the company.

12:29There's multiple entrepreneurs who are now doing asteroid mining or Varda doing experimentation in space.

12:36And I have a, I've been doing some late stage stuff to mop with my

12:40syndicate. And one of the interesting companies we syndicated, we did Zipline, which is a

12:46great company, but we also did this company called Vast, Vast Space.

12:49Jed is the founder. He, he created a ripple and, and, and some other crypto

12:54projects. And he put a lot of his money, hundreds of millions of dollars into

12:58this company, Vast Space, and they're designing a space station.

13:01How did they do it?

13:02Well, they just bought carriage on SpaceX rockets and they paid in advance.

13:08They have their slot. And now they're doing this massive innovation to make modular space

13:13station components. Here's what I'll, here's what I'll say.

13:15And the thesis is, Hey, what if Google or Amazon want to have a space

13:18station in space? You know, it's completely possible.

13:21They may want that. Here's what I'll say.

13:23I think sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.

13:27There are all of these ways that so many people will end up with participation

13:32into SpaceX. I think we all owe Elon an enormous thanks.

13:37I think that this is going to unleash just an unbelievably large economy of things

13:44that we have no idea about.

13:48And when I see this thing, that video that you just showed, what it reminds

13:54me is that we have a very rudimentary capability in space.

13:58What does that mean? If you take, if you catch a ride on Falcon 9

14:03or Falcon Heavy, basically it's dropping you off at 550 kilometers.

14:07I think you have a difference problem if you're trying to get to geo, but

14:11even if you get dropped off at 500 or 550, how do you get to

14:15your actual orbital plane? Right?

14:17So meaning if you think of Elon as like the big container ships that go

14:20from China to America, once it gets to Long Beach, you need FedEx.

14:25There's an entire infrastructure there that's going to get all of this logistics built last

14:30mile. There's a huge garbage collection problem that's getting built up.

14:34We still haven't technically solved how to do garbage collection in space.

14:38There's nets, there's magnetic plates, all of that is getting fixed.

14:42Then there's going to be an explosion in actual power generation.

14:46The cell composition of solar cells up in space are materially different.

14:50It's a really incredible thing.

14:51You look at these thin sheets, they are like one millimeter thick.

14:55If you carried it on your hand, the glass breaks, yet you can smash a

14:59meteor into it when it's laid and laminated and nothing happens.

15:02It's like, so my point is, in every single dimension of what the earthly economy

15:10looks like, it's now going to go and get rebuilt in space.

15:15There'll be a FedEx of space, there'll be a MERSC of space, there'll be a,

15:19I don't know what the garbage collection companies are, allied waste of space.

15:23There's going to be everything of space that exists in the United States.

15:27Freeberg just talked about the Freeport -Macaran of space, like everything.

15:33And that we owe to him.

15:35Yeah. And I hope he gets that credit because the amount of businesses I think

15:41that can get created and the amount of value that will be created on top

15:45of SpaceX's shoulders is vast.

15:48It's the beginning of the beginning of the beginning.

15:50And it's going to create enormous opportunities for people who are smart and resourceful.

15:55And Freeberg, maybe you could comment on the PGMs, the palladium that's on asteroids, and

16:01just how they're rare here on Earth.

16:04If we had an unlimited supply or a continuous supply of those minerals, you know,

16:11what could the downstream effect of that be?

16:13And then what if we find things in space that we are unaware of?

16:17There are unknown unknowns, correct, Freeberg, when you start to conceptualize this?

16:21I do think like the asteroid mining is an interesting concept, but I do think

16:25it's going to be more likely that we'll have the need for infrastructure so we

16:29can produce ores and refine and so on versus, you know, bringing chunky rock back.

16:35I think that you could do this very effectively on the Moon.

16:37The primary elements that are missing from the Moon that we have on the Earth

16:41are, you know, carbon, nitrogen, hydrogen, and oxygen, basically these things that make life on

16:48Earth. But that's because they primarily exist in a gaseous form, and the Earth has

16:54enough gravity to retain those gases and have an atmosphere.

16:57The Moon is too small to maintain an atmosphere.

17:00The gravity is too little, so those gases all kind of went away.

17:04They evaporated away in the early formation of the Earth and the Moon.

17:07But on the Moon, there's everything else.

17:10There's aluminum, there's silicon, there's palladium, there's platinum, there's gold, there's everything you possibly need.

17:16So I think as we do the calculus on all of this, we'll end up

17:19realizing that the Moon is probably the best frontier.

17:22One of the biggest issues is dissipating heat because you don't have an atmosphere.

17:26But theoretically, you could recapture that heat and use like helium gas or something to

17:30turn a turbine and actually run production of even more electricity.

17:34You just put a couple solar panels out.

17:35I did the math on this.

17:36It's like 500 square meters of solar panels will let you run a four kilometer

17:40mass driver to ship material back to the Earth every 10 to 15 minutes.

17:44One ton of material every 10 to 15 minutes.

17:47On the sled you described earlier that Elon's been talking about as well.

17:50So you could think about having autonomous mining vehicles deployed on the Moon, processing the

17:55ore, and then sending completely processed material back.

17:58And then for a heat shield for reentry to the Earth, you just use moon

18:01rock. You only need about 15 centimeters of moon rock at the front of the

18:05package. And then that'll burn up when it reenters the atmosphere and the package, you

18:09know, kind of parachutes down and lands where you want it to land.

18:12And then you're industrial shipyard or whatever so there's just like you know i think

18:15we'll continue to kind of iterate on this i'm speculating a bunch of different ways

18:19the beginning of the beginning gosh i mean can you imagine having a moon base

18:23in america like like yeah well imagine jake permanently present on the moon is just

18:29and factories on the moon it's just wild wild can you guys just imagine like

18:33the middle or the early 19th century like the late 1700s early 1800s in america

18:39and there's like all this land out on the west and like whatever people were

18:44contemplating in that moment about what they were going to go do with that land

18:47on the west and they started to travel west their minds would have been blown

18:51to see what happened 100 years later we're now 150 years later you know like

18:55it's just that's the moment that we're at right now and the railroads are being

18:58built to get us to this next great frontier they're being laid out before us

19:02and the opportunity is really limited only by our imagination and before we would have

19:08never been able to tackle these great frontiers but this magical new technology came about

19:13called robots and these robots are going to allow us to actually make use of

19:17these frontiers and explore them and develop them and that's why this is such an

19:21incredible moment where this intersection of autonomy and robotics and space traversal kind of drive

19:28forward humanity into this new era and it's again this is not a zero -sum

19:32game this is expanding humanity's potential expanding production which is so different than the way

19:37the socialists on earth are talking about it where everyone's fighting against progress zero -sum

19:42game because they think that progress is some people taking things from other people and

19:46the truth is it's about everyone building stuff that's new and everyone benefiting from this

19:50i'm gonna open a hotel casino in space i would go that'd be so serious

19:55absolutely you think it's funny but i i would love that yeah and then uh

20:00no rake no rake no gravity no rake no gravity no tax no tax or

20:08winnings i love it whoever implements the red light district in space is going to

20:14become a trillion oh wow that's yeah with the robotics and the uh pleasure droids

20:20replicants oh man it could get crazy all right well let's just hope you're we're

20:24not the donner party on the way there um 2026 don't worry you'll be you'll

20:29be safely on the ground schlepping syndicates you'll be fine i'll tell you something uh

20:35thank you shout out the syndicate .com join me in greek companies do you listen

20:41i'm still working you guys might be retired but i'm in the game i'm in

20:44the arena trying things i'm selling i'm selling enterprise software every day that's what i

20:49did literally chermont said hey jake can we wrap this up real quick because i

20:52got to get on a sales call i got a discovery call listen i like

20:56the fact that we're all working we're working into our 50s i love it hey

21:002026 could be an all -time record for ipos looks like it will be anthropic

21:06open ai data bricks i mean these are all nine and possibly 10 figure ipos

21:14in terms of the valuations long tail of other companies uh stripe cerebrus canva discord

21:22lots of people waiting here's your poly market spacex 94 obviously that looks like it's

21:28uh we just talked about that for 20 minutes anthropic 41 and people were saying

21:3270 in february open ai 38 data breaks 32 people are wondering what could um

21:40derail this obviously we we have a very pro -business group of people in washington

21:46dc but you have potentially this uh iran war three person out there're gonna be

21:50a certain number of people in tempered in the human life and they've beaten you

21:50so yeah if you god you and that's um talk about that later in the

21:51program, could potentially push us back if God forbid it was to spiral or there

21:56was a recession, maybe the Democrats, you know, taking control of Congress, Senate, etc.

22:02What are your thoughts here on the flurry of potential IPOs?

22:06We're talking about trillions of dollars of companies, Chamop.

22:09And if that does happen, let's start talking second and third order impact of that

22:13kind of distribution chain that could happen for LPs.

22:17And then just also all these employees, you know, and then a currency for these

22:22companies go from a mag seven to a mag 17, it looks like.

22:26I think that we have a bit of a risk problem.

22:30And I think this is why it makes so much sense for Elon to get

22:33out first. If you think about appetite as equivalent to like a person at a

22:40Thanksgiving dinner, when you first come in and you see all of this stuff, it's

22:43so plentiful, your eyes are bigger than your stomach.

22:46And I think in a moment like that, you want to be the one that

22:51is consumed first. And I think the risk increases when you are at the tail

22:56end, because the risk is that the diners will run out of space.

23:00And if you use that, and if you use that analogy, I think the reason

23:05why people's plates will get full are probably twofold and maybe threefold.

23:11The first and most important thing is there's enough tactical event risk that people generally

23:20want to be risk off and have more margin of safety.

23:24I think the Iran thing is kind of in there.

23:28But I think the big tactical event risk is that we have a lot of

23:33these really important financial moments tied to this concept of AGI, ASI, I don't know

23:39if you saw the OpenAI announcement on their final terms, but you know, a huge

23:45slug of Amazon's capital is tied to a 2028 IPO or a moment that calls

23:50for this. Then there was a bunch of leaked text messages or whatever that said

23:55that there's a version of some AGI running inside of Anthropic.

24:00Then there was the fact that, you know, the leak of Claude code basically demonstrated

24:04that they had feature flagged away a bunch of improvements.

24:07So if you stack up all these improvements, they're actually much further ahead than the

24:12models realize. If you take all of that as a basket, it goes back to

24:15what I said last week, which is we have a real pricing problem.

24:20If AGI is real, the durability of most companies is slim to none.

24:25If AGI is not real, then the fundraising capacity of these companies that are now

24:30raising hundreds of billions of dollars needs to get questioned and inspected thoroughly.

24:35History will sort out which one is right, but both cannot be right.

24:38So in that vein, I actually think, J.

24:40Cal, I don't think we're going to have like these quote unquote blockbuster stream of

24:44IPOs. I think what happens is SpaceX is going to get out, they're going to

24:47do great. And then maybe the next one does good to great, then the next

24:53one will do good. And then the appetite runs out because you just can't absorb

24:58incrementally trillions of dollars of new demand.

25:04And if you think about it, where is it going to come from?

25:06Is it going to come from the sidelines?

25:08I don't know. I think it's more of a reallocation exercise.

25:10But if you look at the S &P, well, most people are now defensively moving

25:14away from these kinds of things towards the things that are more protected, what the

25:18industry calls halo, right? High asset, low obsolescence kind of businesses.

25:24Those things trade for zero today, Jason.

25:26You could buy hundreds of millions of - a year of cash flow for two

25:31to five times right now in the stock market.

25:33And so why are you going to go way out on the risk curve and

25:36buy something at 200 times revs, let alone earnings?

25:42So I don't know. I'm more in the camp of, I think it's good to

25:47be first. It's pretty decent to be second.

25:50But if I were you, I would get the heck out and get public and

25:53get your money and fortify your balance cheap, ASAP, because I think the risk builds

25:58the further down the IPO chain you're in.

26:02Yeah, there's going to be a competition for investor dollars, whether it's retail, or it's

26:08institutional, or sovereign wealth funds, they're going to have a lot of choices here.

26:12Do you want to be in Nvidia?

26:13Do you want to be in SpaceX?

26:15Maybe you have to rotate out of Amazon or Google or Disney in order to

26:19take on those opportunities. And that's going to be a great competition.

26:22Probably, we could see a lot of these IPOs, Friedberg, trade below their IPO price

26:28in the year or two after they come out and get repriced, yeah?

26:33Like we've seen before. I think the market's going to need to find a price.

26:36Remember, the share owners in a lot of these companies have held on to these

26:41shares for a long period of time.

26:43And the valuations are extraordinary.

26:45I mean, hundreds of billions of dollars in market value, coming to market liquid for

26:49the first time, some of these investors, regardless of whatever their entry price was, are

26:55going to be looking for liquidity.

26:56So there's only so much capital to absorb those shares on the buy side.

27:01Meaning if the buyers and the bid is not there to fulfill all of the

27:06selling, then you're going to see the share price decline, and the market's going to

27:09find a price. And so I think this idea that an IPO is just a

27:15step in driving the price or value of a company up is a pretty false

27:20sense. And I think we'll realize it's pretty false as some of these IPOs take

27:23place, because there is so much pent -up selling demand.

27:26There is so much value that's been graded.

27:28There's going to be so much selling pressure.

27:30And then there's going to be very little buying activity on some of these, because

27:34anyone that could have bought at scale on the buy side post -public, we're already

27:40in a lot of these companies pre -public as private companies.

27:43And so I don't know who the big buyers are that everyone's expecting her to

27:46show up. They're probably thinking, hey, it's going to be retail.

27:49Retail? Yeah, I mean, it's like...

27:50Yeah, but how much money does retail have left?

27:52I mean, if you look at retail investors, they have a certain amount of powder,

27:55and it's probably deployed. It's not like they have unlimited places to look for that.

28:01And there's some evidence of this.

28:02Bloomberg ran an article on Wednesday.

28:05We tape on Thursday, folks, and you get to listen to the pod on Fridays.

28:08OpenAI is falling out of favor with secondary buyers.

28:13According to a report, OpenAI investors can't find buyers at the new $850 billion valuation

28:19that Chamath referenced earlier. Investors Bloomberg spoke to are looking to sell $600 million worth

28:26of shares. People are looking for liquidity and said they were institutional investors.

28:31Anthropic, currently valued at $300 billion, is seeing major secondary bids at a $600 billion

28:35valuation. So I think Chamath, what this shows us is, you're correct, OpenAI and Anthropic

28:42are the two next cards.

28:43That's your turn and river, folks, if SpaceX is the flop.

28:46And maybe they're massively overvalued right now.

28:50Maybe they're $300, $400, $500 billion companies, not trillion -dollar companies.

28:55And if you look at the amount of revenue, $24 billion for OpenAI at $852

29:01billion, that's 35 times price -to -sales ratio.

29:04And that is an absurd price -to -sales ratio.

29:07ratio depending on if the growth keeps happening and as you reference chamath what if

29:11we are at artificial general intelligence agi and the moats on these things is de

29:17minimis or or there is no moat anthropic just got hacked all their secrets are

29:23out somebody transmuted the code into another language posted it on github can't be stopped

29:31i don't know if you saw that story freeberg but this is kind of mind

29:33-blowing somebody took the anthropic code i don't know what it was written in and

29:36then basically just put it into another language reposted it if anthropic comes and says

29:42hey you can't do that well that negates their argument chamath that they're allowed to

29:49train on other people's data and then spit out a different output so this is

29:53a very weird moment in time right it is i think you're you're bringing up

29:57a bunch of different points so let me just sort them out in the order

30:00that i think is important is there a market for open ai at 800 billion

30:04yes and there should be when i read that press release my mind was blown

30:09this is a i've never seen a business like this and i'd say the same

30:14thing of anthropic what an incredible thing that both of these two companies have been

30:18able to create nobody in the history of the world has ever seen two businesses

30:25like this at this scale okay it's unbelievable these are trillion dollar companies they both

30:32are and they both deserve to be how profitable they are i don't know what

30:38their terminal valuation is i don't know what will people pay for an ipo i

30:43don't know but nick i just shared something with you these two companies need to

30:48get out as quickly as possible and the reason is every single company that comes

30:54after it all those companies that you just named jason are not nearly as important

30:58and do not need the money nearly as badly as these guys do and where

31:01will it come from the specific answer to your question when you look at this

31:04chart is the tech sector pe is going to shrink faster in my opinion than

31:09the non -tech pe and the reason is because as these companies come out the

31:15combination of spacex open ai and anthropic all three are baking an ai technology that

31:23first and foremost will go after the tech sector it will eliminate and it will

31:29cannibalize and it will erode most of the moats that support this differential trading so

31:36if i were a betting man my first bet is as those three companies come

31:40out these software businesses are going to approach the rest of the non -tech pe

31:45okay that's the first step that has to happen so the rate of change of

31:50of the multiple erosion will basically say to the world hey these tech companies are

31:56i don't know i'll buy the first five or six years of this story but

32:00i'm not buying year 15 of this anymore because these three guys are going to

32:04build something so that's where the money comes from that's why i think after spacex

32:09these two guys need to get their act together file quickly get out and just

32:12get the money fortify their balance sheets and be in a position for everything everything

32:17that happens after that is a total coin toss because once these three companies are

32:21public i think the blue line will converge to the orange line and it's going

32:25to be nasty yeah freeberg just looking at this do you believe that secondary market

32:31is a canary in the coal mine here with open ai because if we we've

32:35and we've gone through this year after year here these are exceptional businesses they've grown

32:39incredible customers love their products but the burn is brutal the circular financing problem you

32:45still out there like what's reality here and that's going to all come out when

32:50these s1s get filed and they're publicly traded companies and have quarterly earnings reports market

32:55share for these could be flipping anthropic and gemini other players coming into the market

33:02what are your thoughts here on uh anthropic and open ai post the spacex ipo

33:09like i said there's only so much capital in the world so i do think

33:13one of the things that's probably being underestimated at the moment is the liquidity crunch

33:18that's ahead for capital intensive technology businesses given the conflict in the middle east i

33:26don't think that qatar and certain saudi offices and certain offices in uae and oman

33:33are as eager as they were or you know have been to provide large slugs

33:40of capital to support these initiatives and remember that capital moves its way through the

33:44markets whether it's through jp morgan and a loan to soft bank which then gets

33:48paid to open ai at the end of the day there has to be unencumbered

33:51debt -free capital that's being provided to these systems from somewhere in the world and

33:57if you trace all of it back like a large chunk of it has historically

34:00in the last couple of years come from middle east sovereigns and family offices and

34:05i think that those are likely going to tighten up in the near term that

34:08being the case is probably less demand i do think that there's a lot of

34:11secondary demand coming from family offices in europe and singapore places like that that that

34:16generally have not had great access or early stage access to private companies but at

34:21some point there's only so much demand there so i don't know like how far

34:25this is going to go or when this capital crunch that's going to emerge i

34:28think from the middle east i don't think we've really felt the shockwave yet on

34:31what's happening because remember a lot of these middle east capital commitments were made in

34:35the last cycle as lp commitments or whatever and you know if they stop if

34:40they downscale lp commitments or they stop doing primary and secondary transactions you know it

34:46takes a little bit of time before the market feels that and then it's like

34:48oh the reliable go -to are gone and a lot of the big funds the

34:52the mega funds that are out there totally that have middle east lps are gone

34:56and suddenly everyone's going to be like whoa and the shockwave will hit so let's

35:01see it is a risk for the united states because china i don't think is

35:05going to be as challenged we're so dependent on middle east capital but maybe that

35:10china has an a capital advantage actually maybe going into this yeah i mean and

35:14we talked about force maybe or i don't know come into play here if this

35:18surrounding spirals god forbid out of control or gets worse people could say you know

35:24what we're going to downscale our commitments and hey there's a war so we don't

35:28have to fund the markets i think the markets have shaked that off jason i

35:31don't think that they they view this iran thing as a big thing i think

35:34the big event risk in the market is is ai real or not real and

35:38if it's real what are all of these companies worth that is the big sort

35:41of damocles over the stock market yeah all right well that's a good segue i

35:45think into talking a bit about iran we took the week off from it last

35:51week and we're going to catch up by the way not because we just to

35:55be clear not because we intended to which all the comments railed us on but

35:58we literally jason did a terrible job moderating it was on the friggin docket we

36:03were supposed to talk about it we didn't get to it and we went right

36:07out it's clearly my fault um he dmv'd it he you know it's like i'm

36:13just protecting trump i'm out here getting cover for trump's mistakes yeah yeah everybody knows

36:19i'm in the pocket of president like take a ticket take a ticket oh you

36:23have an issue okay well you Through issue number 17, Trump DM'd me and said,

36:27can you please take this off the docket?

36:28I was like, you got it, boss.

36:30And then you're like, oh, sorry, office is closed.

36:32Come back tomorrow. Today is day 34 of the Iran war slash military operation.

36:39Trump addressed the nation Wednesday night for a brisk 18 minutes.

36:42Here's a 40 second clip.

36:43We're now totally independent of the Middle East, and yet we are there to help.

36:50We don't have to be there.

36:51We don't need their oil.

36:53We don't need anything they have, but we're there to help our allies.

36:57For years, everyone has said that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons.

37:01But in the end, those are just words if you're not willing to take action

37:05when the time comes. Our objectives are very simple and clear.

37:10We are systematically dismantling the regime's ability to threaten America or project power outside of

37:17their borders. And tonight, I'm pleased to say that these core strategic objectives are nearing

37:23completion. All right, the costs here are mounting.

37:26War is a very serious business.

37:2913 American service members have tragically died.

37:32Over 200 have been injured on the other side of the ledger.

37:353 ,500 Iranians have died, including 1 ,600 civilians and over 200 children.

37:401 ,200 people in Lebanon have died from Israeli strikes, and we now have 50

37:47,000 troops deployed to the Middle East.

37:49Chances of a ground invasion are increasing.

37:55War has cost $70 billion so far.

37:58That's assuming $2 billion a day, which there seems to be consensus on via the

38:02Department of War. Pentagon has asked Congress for another $200 billion.

38:09To put that in context, the war in Ukraine was $113 billion in the first

38:16year. This could quickly exceed it when we hit 50 days.

38:21This isn't cheap. There are lots of costs.

38:24Here's your poly market on a ceasefire.

38:2625 % chance of a ceasefire by the end of April.

38:3047 % chance by the end of May.

38:32The Sharps are thinking this could wrap up.

38:34But ground invasion, which would be just really impactful, I think.

38:4363 % chance by the end of April.

38:4571 % chance by the end of December.

38:47We're going to get into the second -order effects, but what do you think, Chamath?

38:52This obviously is a super unpopular war.

38:55I think two things. And the president kind of alluded to one that I think

38:59is very important, which is if you are not energy independent, you are at risk.

39:03And I don't know how many more examples now that world leaders need to be

39:08shown to get their acts together.

39:10So if the Ukraine -Russian conflict didn't show Europe, then this should show not just

39:16Europe, but the rest of the world.

39:17You need to be in control of your own energy infrastructure and energy independence because

39:23stuff happens in the world.

39:25And you're not always in control or can shape how that stuff can indirectly or

39:30directly affect you. The United States has energy independence.

39:34It's an incredible situation. What was interesting to me is if you look at Europe,

39:38they gutted a couple of their energy markets.

39:43And they essentially ceded control to a combination of very expensive imports and China.

39:51They did that in markets like nuclear, where they just went out of it.

39:56They did that in things like NatGas, where, again, we can debate, but where did

39:59Nord Stream 2 go? We don't know.

40:01And they did that in things like solar.

40:02And they did that in things like solar.

40:02where they just gutted all of the credits.

40:04But what's interesting is they're starting to turn that around.

40:08I think Italy just reintroduced effectively what's called investment tax credits.

40:14Spain just did as well.

40:16Germany is restarting nuclear. So if you just look at the last few months, just

40:23that change is incredibly important because our largest ally, Europe, should be fundamentally energy independent

40:31so that they preserve complete and total optionality like we do in how we respond

40:37to these situations. That I think is a critical thing that is a positive outcome

40:43of what's happening. And then the second, Jason, which I think is a huge question

40:46mark, and it builds on what Friedberg said before, the Middle Eastern states, specifically the

40:52UAE and Saudi, Qatar, Kuwait, they are our most important financing and banking partner in

41:01the future. And I think we need to see a conclusive end to this war,

41:06because they need to be in a position to monetize these critical assets.

41:11Because at the same time, if you see these big pools of demand start to

41:16become energy independent by either accelerating nuclear, but again, that's just problematic and slow.

41:21But frankly, they're just going to ramp up solar.

41:24That's the only way that you can dispatch energy quickly.

41:27I think what that does is it decreases hydrocarbon demand over the long run.

41:31That then decreases the monetization capacity for these countries.

41:35So if you put these two things together, all of these folks in the region

41:40want safety, security, and they need a quick end to this thing now.

41:43And I think that they're more incentivized to put boots on the ground, Jason, than

41:47America is. That's the point I was trying to make.

41:48Freeberg, let's talk a little bit about fertilizer.

41:53You had brought up when we had the start of the Ukraine war, hey, this

41:59is the breadbasket. We could have a massive famine.

42:02Thankfully, that was avoided. There were carve outs for getting wheat and other crops out

42:09of Ukraine. But here we are again, with a significant amount of fertilizer comes out

42:15of that region. And it's not flowing right now.

42:19Do you have concerns this time around that we could see something similar?

42:23Fertilizer is made up of three elements.

42:25There's different fertilizers. The one element is N for nitrogen, P for phosphorus, and K

42:31for potassium. Ukraine is the largest producer of the K, the potassium, the potash.

42:38But the N in fertilizer is nitrogen.

42:42And that is about 60 % of what goes into the ground.

42:46That's 60 % to 65 % of global fertilizer is the nitrogen.

42:49That's what really drives agricultural productivity.

42:52And we need nitrogen fertilizer to grow crops everywhere on earth that we're growing crops

42:58to feed people at scale.

43:00That nitrogen is primarily made where natural gas is produced and processed.

43:05And the reason is that they use the natural gas as an input to the

43:09production process. They get the carbon, the hydrogen, the oxygen, and then they compress.

43:15Remember, 70 % of our atmosphere is made up of nitrogen gas.

43:18So they compress the nitrogen in the air to 200 times atmospheric pressure, run it

43:23over an electrical current with a metal catalyst, and you break apart the N2s.

43:28You have just single nitrogen atoms.

43:30And then you combine it back, and you end up getting ammonia out of the

43:34other end. That's why nitrogen fertilizers are produced where natural gas is processed.

43:40So you The Middle East, obviously, is a massive producer, particularly in Qatar, of natural

43:45gas. And that's why so much of the world's nitrogen fertilizer is made in the

43:50Middle East. In fact, about 35 % of the world's nitrogen fertilizer goes through the

43:54Strait of Hormuz. And it is then shipped to countries around the world that farm

43:59and that need it to grow their crops.

44:01The swing producer in the world is China.

44:04China historically makes about 15 % of the world's nitrogen fertilizer.

44:08And when the war started, a few days after it began, China shut down exports

44:12of their nitrogen fertilizer. And so they basically choked out the rest of the world.

44:17And so when the Strait of Hormuz shut, the nitrogen stopped flowing.

44:20Here you can see the price spike that happened.

44:22So as the war began, this is urea.

44:25Urea is the solid form of nitrogen fertilizer.

44:28So urea was trading at about $350 a ton before the conflict kind of took

44:34off. And it continues to spike up.

44:36It reached over $700 a ton in the last two days.

44:40And this is really, really, really impactful.

44:43It's not just like, oh, the price is double.

44:45Number one, there's a supply deficiency.

44:47So farmers in places like Africa and South Asia are not getting the urea that

44:52they need to farm. That is going to have a massive follow -on problem.

44:56And in markets where they have access, because the price has spiked, like in the

45:00United States, our biggest crop is corn.

45:03You need about 200 pounds of that urea per acre for corn.

45:07And that cost basically makes you unprofitable.

45:10There is no way you can make a profitable crop of corn.

45:13The other thing that China did at the same time is they stopped buying corn.

45:16So corn prices would normally spike up, and corn prices have remained low while the

45:21input prices have spiked for American farmers.

45:24So American farmers are in a real pickle.

45:26Fortunately for this spring planting, which is happening right now, about two -thirds of American

45:30farmers had already secured their fertilizer before this began.

45:35But a third did not, and they're switching crops, typically to soybeans.

45:39But we have a fall planting coming up in a couple of months here, and

45:43the choke points on production is going to keep prices very high.

45:47In the United States, we make a lot of our own ammonia at our natural

45:50gas facilities in places like Oklahoma and Texas and Wyoming and other places, and then

45:55it ships directly to the farms.

45:56But the cost is so high because of the global market that it's going to

45:59become very hard for farmers to make a profit.

46:01And around the world, there are many farmers, millions and millions of farmers that can't

46:06access this fertilizer now. So the choke point in the Strait of Hormuz is turning

46:09out to be a real critical global food supply crisis, yet again, similar to Ukraine.

46:14And remember, there was about 400 million people following the Ukraine war globally that we

46:20saw enter into a state of malnourishment.

46:21This means more than one year of 1 ,200 calories or less per day for

46:26a year. 400 million people after Ukraine.

46:29So coming out of this crisis, it could be even more severe given the criticality

46:33of nitrogen -based fertilizers and the shutdown of the Strait.

46:36Let me make two more points on this.

46:38You would think, okay, we'll make more nitrogen fertilizer.

46:40The facilities take at least three to five years to fix when they break, which

46:45is what just happened in Qatar.

46:46That facility got damaged, the main facility that's being used to make fertilizer.

46:49So that is the largest producer of urea in the world that's now going to

46:53be incapacitated for three to five years.

46:56And if you want to build a new facility, it takes about seven years.

46:59All the facilities around the world that make urea and ammonia, these nitrogen fertilizers, typically

47:04run 24 -7, 365 at full capacity.

47:08There is no downtime where you can just turn on excess production in the world.

47:11So, you know, the world is very delicate in its balance of inputs and food

47:15production outputs. So it's the whole world has like less than 30 days of food

47:19of calories. calories stored up.

47:20So as these kind of supply chain problems start to percolate, there's shock waves that

47:25start to get felt around the world.

47:26So it's a pretty serious crisis ahead.

47:28And it'll take a few months before it'll be fully realized.

47:31In the meantime, U .S.

47:32farmers are getting their asses handed to them.

47:34They can't make money. And China is using this as a moment for extraordinary leverage

47:38over America and taking advantage of the situation by shutting down exports of their fertilizer

47:43and at the same time not buying American production of corn.

47:47We probably need Friedberg to have some sort of resiliency here and address this like

47:51we did with pharmaceuticals, PPE, all these other things.

47:55Yeah, we should have some sort of stockpile of fertilizer.

47:59Chamath's point is absolutely correct.

48:01Natural gas reservoirs exist around the world.

48:04And we've been loathe to exploit them or develop them because of the climate change,

48:11carbon risks and issues. But I think what we're realizing is that those are luxury

48:15beliefs to an extent. You can only say, let's not exploit carbon resources until you

48:21hit a shockwave like this.

48:22And then people are like, wait a second, we really do need to have these

48:25systems up and running. And we need to have excess capacity and local capacity in

48:29the system. Because single points of failure for the whole world's food supply is not

48:33going to cut it anymore, particularly as the world is becoming more fragmented and multipolar.

48:38And there's less U .S.

48:39policing of the world that's going to happen and so on.

48:42It's going to be very critical that everyone starts to think about doubling down, not

48:45just on energy production, but some of these other critical inputs like fertilizer.

48:49And another output, just as a quick side story on nat gas production, is when

48:53you pull nat gas out of the ground, that's the primary place we find helium.

48:57And helium, we're all waking up to the fact, you know, we never really think

49:00about helium. We think about kids' balloons at birthday parties.

49:02But helium goes into MRI machines.

49:05Helium goes into semiconductor manufacturing.

49:07Helium goes into mass spec machines that are used in chemical analysis with a lot

49:11of applications around the world.

49:13Helium is a critical input to medical equipment, to manufacturing equipment.

49:19And all of a sudden, a third of the world's helium coming out of Qatar

49:22is not making it out.

49:24And so we're now going to have a helium supply shock that's going to affect

49:27the world. So we're starting to wake up to the fact that perhaps these nat

49:30gas fields that we've allowed to kind of turn a blind eye and say, let

49:34one country exploit them and let them make all the nat gas.

49:37The U .S. is actively developing.

49:39You know, I went down and visited that Chenier facility in Louisiana with Doug Burgum

49:42a couple months ago, which was an amazing sight to see, where we do all

49:46the LNG exporting. But the U .S.

49:49has extraordinary nat gas reserves.

49:51So do many other places in the world that have failed to take advantage of

49:55developing them. And I think we're realizing the criticality of doing so at this moment.

49:58Looking at this, I think we'll have Trump pivot extremely soon.

50:04I've brought this chart up now.

50:05This will be the fourth time I've brought it up.

50:06Is that your prediction, J.

50:07Cal? You think he's going to wrap this up?

50:09I mean... He's 100 % going to wrap this up.

50:11And I can show why.

50:12I mean, just basically look at the history of this.

50:15You guys remember, I brought up this chart with Trump's net approval rating.

50:22And you look at how this has changed over the three times I brought it

50:26up. First time in June last year, then October.

50:29And again, I'm going to bring it up here.

50:31The stuff with ICE and, you know, the Epstein files and just going right down

50:39the line of unpopular decisions, Trump's net approval rating now has just plummeted to negative

50:4617. This is the least popular he's ever been.

50:49And he's had to pivot here.

50:51Pam Bondi, at the time we are recording this, as I predicted on a previous

50:56episode, then. christy noem and pam bondi would be fired or in i guess in

51:03trump's terms he likes to get them a new job and give them a window

51:07seat this is absolutely going to result in a quick pivot who knows what the

51:13downstream effects are but the inflation three handle is coming back according to polymarket gas

51:19is over four dollars a gallon and then you know it's easy to mock like

51:23we did earlier these like no kings protests but eight million people came out for

51:27that that's a large number and if you look at the polymarket for what's going

51:32to happen in the midterms 51 % chance now that the dems take the senate

51:3686 % that they take the house and you know what you're going to take

51:40from that is wait sorry polymarket is now showing the democrats winning both houses yeah

51:46pull it up significant chance of that and you know when this happens how much

51:50money is being bet on that let's just see 51 % they take the senate

51:5386 % they take the house and four and a half million there's four and

51:58a half million dollars on this oh gosh yeah i tend to i tend to

52:02filter how seriously i take polymarket just based on the total quantum but this is

52:06a big number yeah and i you know listen i this is not me trying

52:10to dunk on trump and my personal beliefs i think when you lose tucker when

52:15you lose megan calley when you lose joe rogan you know and people are looking

52:20at who trump surrounded him with there's really just two groups you have these super

52:25highly qualified people besan lutnik obviously david sachs you got you got really highly qualified

52:31people jd you know who i think the world i think these people are great

52:35but then he put some people in positions that i think weren't up to the

52:39task pam bondy christie i'll put stephen miller and cash in that as well it's

52:44my personal belief in that case and those people have not served him well and

52:49they need to get this presidency back on track because what's going to happen is

52:53we're going to have two more years of impeachments and investigations and the whole thing's

52:58going to be derided and we really need to start thinking about what who's making

53:02these decisions who made this decision to go into iran and why who made these

53:07decisions to have ice go into minnesota and why and i think a lot of

53:11it goes back to stephen miller i got mocked a bit here on the pod

53:15for like blaming him but you can correlate stephen miller christy noem cash patel and

53:20pam bondy with all of the downside of this presidency and the plummeting ratings trump's

53:27gonna need to clear house he's cleared out two of four i predict he'll clear

53:30out the other two and get great leadership in there and turn this presidency around

53:34because listen this is going to be socialism now and aoc is going to win

53:39this is going to cause massive chaos if he doesn't get out of iran and

53:43do it soon just my handicapping of the situation uh hegseth i'm not so sure

53:49i'm not sure if i uh you know what i think of him yet but

53:52you know we don't have information on why trump did this that's going to be

53:56the next shoe to drop on why why he did it freeberg i think you

53:59know this is the point i made the second this war happened or a military

54:05operation let's call it what it is this is a war when you kill the

54:08top 100 people it's a war i said i don't have the information of why

54:12he did this like he might have information freeberg that we don't have that made

54:16this an absolute must for us to do but we haven't revealed that information he

54:20hasn't explained it well to the american people i think that's why the ratings are

54:24you know and i don't want to make the ratings like a tv ratings his

54:28popularity is getting crushed here the way this was explained to americans and again i'm

54:33not inserting my position here i'm just talking about the disconnect right now is that

54:37operation midnight hammer was supposed to uh have just decimated this so why did we

54:43do this again and we don't have the information this is why i try to

54:47stay humble in this and say like what information does trump have of that we

54:53don't have some people seem to think chamath this was overconfidence there's obviously this debate

54:59did we get baited into this by israel and get pushed into it and is

55:03he a manchurian candidate etc that's above my pay grade too i i don't have

55:08any information on that i'm not in the cia it's hard to be a an

55:12armchair critic on this stuff in both senses like i think it's hard to say

55:16hey this guy got talked into doing this israel manipulated him into it you know

55:20sorry it's easy to say that it's also easy to say hey we should go

55:23get rid of the country that's made all the nuclear weapons both of those are

55:26easy to say without all of the texture of the relationships and the details and

55:30what really went on none of us is the truth that's literally the point i

55:35you know i've been trying to make here it's like yeah how do it is

55:38the same thing with venezuela like how do we know we don't have any intelligence

55:42to mop we're not in the cia we don't have any of these insights that

55:46musad or the israeli intelligence services have how do we know how this was going

55:50to go down and you know that's all going to come out i think when

55:53this all gets investigated yeah i think trump is and has been the most consistent

56:00anti -war president of modern history yes and i think that it's fair to say

56:05that he has and has had and has demonstrated enormous restraint and has the highest

56:12bar thus far of folks for actually getting into conflict so i do think that

56:18what freebrick says is very important there's just so much we don't know and i

56:23think that he doesn't want to stain his legacy with a typical american you know

56:32conflict yeah he doesn't want that i don't think he doesn't need to be anywhere

56:36near that so there is obviously stuff that we don't know i still think that

56:40there's a short -term problem which is not just the threat that iran poses to

56:47israel but there's a threat that iran poses to the rest of the middle eastern

56:51community that neighborhood is a complicated place there was an interview that mbs did on

56:58saudi television nick maybe maybe you can find it it's in arabic but there's a

57:03good version of it that i saw with subtitles and if you hear the mbs

57:09is telling of what the iranian threat is it's not dissimilar to how the israelis

57:17would characterize the threat and so i think it's important to understand that unpredictable actors

57:25should not be given an opportunity to have a cataclysmic weapon that can just completely

57:32destroy the earth as we know it that just doesn't make sense and i think

57:36if you can intervene to prevent that we're now aware of the damages of what

57:40this can do to enough of a degree where there should be enough of nuclear

57:45disarmament from here on out the six seven eight nine countries that have it okay

57:50there's all kinds of reasons why maybe we could have remade those decisions over the

57:54intervening 70 years maybe there's some that we never should have let have it the

57:59pakistan india thing is a good example of one but we are where we are

58:02and i think we can all agree no more countries should incrementally get access to

58:07this thing absolutely not and this regime specifically believes that anybody who is not part

58:13of this specific religion needs to die and the whole well that islam needs to

58:19be reunited in order to take on anybody who's not part of well i and

58:23i would encourage you of radical islam like it's a it's a it's this is

58:26a religious lunacy in that country i think i think everybody else should be murdered

58:31if they don't convert i think it's important to say that the overwhelming majority of

58:36sunnis and the overwhelming majority of shias are peaceful observant people yes there are fringes

58:42in every religion and in specifically this i think the most important thing is to

58:46not take your word or anybody else's word i do think it's important to listen

58:50to somebody like mbs because i think it's the lived experience of you know having

58:55to run a country in that neighborhood and what it means and i think what

58:58you see is as you as you're articulating many layers of complexity that again i

59:04think that most of us in the west have zero appreciation for all of this

59:09goes to in the short term i think that they force themselves into a corner

59:15i think we can go back and relitigate why did obama let him out that

59:21was a really really stupid idea we probably should have kept our thumb on the

59:24scale and had them close to teetering on economic insolvency that's the only thing that

59:31has kept them in check they veered wildly away the minute we let them out

59:35of the disarmament agreements that we had but we are where we are we got

59:41to put the genie back in the bottle and we cannot look to other countries

59:46and tolerate this idea that they also want to build the kinds of weapons that

59:51can literally destroy the face of the planet as we know it's a non -starter

59:55and then the second order effect is how do we make sure that folks that

1:00:01are participating in all of this broader seeds of sowing chaos how do we hem

1:00:07them in and how do we create a more reasonable world order and i think

1:00:12that the second order effects and i've said this before kind of bring this back

1:00:16to china and i think a world where it's bipolar where it's the united states

1:00:20and china roughly as the two leading statesmen of the world is probably the nash

1:00:29equilibrium here and so i think getting china in a position where they need to

1:00:34do a deal and remember i said this the worst thing that could happen for

1:00:39china was the president delaying the summit and here we are we're now it's delayed

1:00:43for six weeks it's going to go into mid -bay if you think the straighter

1:00:47form moves numbers as it relates to energy prices in europe or anywhere else or

1:00:52crazy look at what's happening inside of china right now it is a no bueno

1:00:58situation and so in may if we can re -establish a set of operating criteria

1:01:05that keeps normalcy in check no more of this rapid random expansion everywhere where the

1:01:12chinese are trying to build bases near us and you know now we have to

1:01:16have a point of view near them we don't need any of that so i

1:01:20think if we can use this as an opportunity to de -escalate i think we

1:01:23should yeah we seem to have moved from i mean i think this is the

1:01:28question there's a a doctrine i don't know if you guys heard this one before

1:01:31mowing the lawn which is the israeli's view of hezbollah hamas and even iran which

1:01:38is just hey we have to take away their progress the last 30 or 40

1:01:42percent of their progress towards nuclear bombs and we just do that consistently and we

1:01:46contain them this has tipped over into regime change and so i think that's the

1:01:50wild card that none of us can predict What happens from this point forward?

1:01:55And I don't know how you leave Iran in this state if they're going to

1:01:59take over the strait and charge everybody a dollar a barrel.

1:02:03Is that going to be tenable?

1:02:04Are they going to keep blowing stuff up?

1:02:06This is uncharted territory. And yeah, and very high stakes.

1:02:11President Trump also reiterated the U .S.

1:02:14doesn't need Middle East oil and that Europeans should go straight to the strait and

1:02:19just take it. He said that the strait will open naturally because, quote, they're going

1:02:23to want to be able.

1:02:24Why are you always focusing on the straits of Hormuz, Jason?

1:02:27Why am I? I mean, you're always overlooking the gaze of Hormuz as an example.

1:02:34That's true. And the non -binaries of Hormuz, they all count.

1:02:38Well, why is it all about the straits of Hormuz all the time?

1:02:40Well, listen, I don't want to get canceled here because I'm talking, I don't know

1:02:44the pronouns to use for these straits of Hormuz, but yes, the straits in Hormuz.

1:02:49I don't think you're allowed to be gay in Hormuz.

1:02:51I think you have to keep that pretty quiet there, don't you?

1:02:54That was the greatest clip ever.

1:02:55If you don't know what we're referring to, it's a viral clip of purple -haired

1:03:00people. No, not purple -haired.

1:03:02This was a young Indian lady, and we all thought the same thing.

1:03:08Indians are so smart. What happened to her?

1:03:10Oh, what happened? Cheesy. They found an Indian who didn't understand the question.

1:03:17They found the one dumb Indian.

1:03:18Yes, exactly. Oh, God. They found her.

1:03:23They found her. She's been absolutely...

1:03:27Isn't it a little bit homophobic that we're so focused on the straits of Hormuz

1:03:32and not the gays of Hormuz?

1:03:33Yes, I agree. Yes, for sure.

1:03:35Why do you think you're willing to leave the gays of Hormuz behind?

1:03:39I think it's just history.

1:03:41Which Ivy League do you think she went to?

1:03:43Brown. Yeah. A hundred percent.

1:03:44Brown or Columbia? Oh, yeah.

1:03:46That's a good call. I would say Columbia.

1:03:49She might have gone to Vassar, actually.

1:03:51I think that might have been her safety school.

1:03:53So, that's the best, not Borat, Bruno impersonation I've heard in a long time.

1:04:00So, Freibug, why are you so gay?

1:04:03Do you think the straits of Hormuz?

1:04:05Are you making your potatoes non -binary?

1:04:09It's like literally, this is Bruno.

1:04:14You got 10 minutes, Jamath.

1:04:15Do you want to do your Bitcoin thing or do you want to just break?

1:04:18The Bitcoin thing was interesting because I think in the last couple of years, months,

1:04:24what we've started to see is an increasing amount of research that says that the

1:04:32scheduled eventuality of a quantum chip, a functional chip, is probably not 25 or 30

1:04:43years away. It's probably now in the next five to seven years, if I had

1:04:48to guess. And I think that because that event horizon has moved in, in these

1:04:55next five to seven years, for those that follow Bitcoin and care about it, my

1:05:01only advice on this topic is that the leaders of the Bitcoin ecosystem need to

1:05:06organize themselves and need to make sure that they have an answer to the question

1:05:11of, is this stuff quantum resistant?

1:05:13Because if the answer is no, they are a very visible and obvious honeypot.

1:05:19Now, there is the answer that then a lot of the Bitcoin community gives, which

1:05:23is, well, everything is screwed.

1:05:26And my only advice is, possibly.

1:05:28But if a non -state actor gets a hold of - quantum technology that can

1:05:33defeat crypto as we know it today.

1:05:37SHA -256, ECDS, like the elliptical curve stuff, the run -of -the -mill stuff that

1:05:42we all rely on. A non -state actor's incentive will first be to drain the

1:05:48obvious honeypots and then tell everybody that it's broken so that then everything goes to

1:05:53shit, all the prices go to zero, and then they have all the money and

1:05:56then they can buy stuff.

1:05:57That would be the sequence of events if you were a non -state actor.

1:06:00So yes, you're right, the banks get hacked.

1:06:02Yes, you're right, all this other stuff goes kaput.

1:06:06But I think you first go and you exploit the obvious places, and I think

1:06:10crypto is the most obvious honeypot in a world where you can defeat encryption.

1:06:14Now, in fairness, the crypto community, this was much, much earlier, had to deal with

1:06:20this. They had to migrate from different encryption schemes in the early parts of Bitcoin,

1:06:24and they were able to self -organize.

1:06:27The difficulty here is you're talking about a big technological lift.

1:06:31You're talking about all the wallets being re -architected.

1:06:33You're talking about all the transactional flows, all the processing nodes.

1:06:36These are complicated things that need to happen.

1:06:40And I would just tell the crypto community, you have five to seven years to

1:06:43get your shit in order.

1:06:44That's it. Freeberg, quantum computing, just generally speaking, you feel it's going to have a

1:06:51major impact in the short term.

1:06:53Do you think it's actually going to become viable in the midterm?

1:06:58Where do you think about it?

1:06:59Because it's always been 10 years out, but it feels like we're making some progress.

1:07:04Yeah, there's a lot that's changed.

1:07:05I mean, so the primary mechanism of modern encryption standards relates to factoring primes of

1:07:13an integer. Discovering the prime factors of an integer would give you the ability to

1:07:19theoretically crack encryption. There was an algorithm that was theorized by a guy named Peter

1:07:25Shore. I think I talked about this on a prior episode back in 1994 called

1:07:29Shore's algorithm today. It's kind of the commonly well -known model for how you could

1:07:33do this. And you can watch a YouTube video on it.

1:07:36There's some YouTube videos that explain it pretty clearly.

1:07:38It takes a bit of time to understand it.

1:07:41And then a couple of years ago, I think in 2023, there was another computer

1:07:45scientist named Oded Regev from NYU who published another paper that showed a faster, different

1:07:54approach to Shore's algorithm. It was an improvement on Shore's algorithm that basically reduced the

1:07:59number of quantum operations required to factor a large integer significantly.

1:08:05So there's kind of... Yeah, sorry.

1:08:07We went from 28 million of those operations down to 500 ,000.

1:08:10Yeah. And so there's this...

1:08:12A lot of work going on right now, even before we have industrial scale quantum

1:08:18computers, a lot of work going on in quantum computing theory and building models and

1:08:23algorithms. And a lot of this is rooted in pure mathematics and statistics and whatnot.

1:08:28That work is making progress and building better algorithms even before the compute comes online.

1:08:32And then there's this separate set of things that you can track.

1:08:36But, you know, the market, if you want to trust the market, is betting that

1:08:40we are within spitting distance of quantum computers reaching an industrial scale at this moment.

1:08:46So those two things intersect at some moment in the near term, where you have

1:08:50algorithms that are low demand, low latency, that can crack modern encryption standards.

1:08:56And then the computing comes online, and someone is going to execute.

1:09:01The real thing is, what do you do about it?

1:09:04There's a whole bunch of research that's been going on for 20 plus years on

1:09:08quantum algorithms, quantum encryption standards.

1:09:10And so to Chamath's point, these things exist.

1:09:14It's just a heavy lift.

1:09:16And so there's going to be this heavy lift, probably, you know, pretty good business

1:09:20to be made in the next couple of years.

1:09:22And all of the changes are going to need to happen across all encryption standards,

1:09:26across the whole internet, across how we do communications and so on.

1:09:29In a crazy way, Freebird Crypto is in the same place as all these software

1:09:33socks, meaning if AGI and ASI are real, these software companies are not what we

1:09:38thought they were. If Quantum is real, a bunch of these crypto projects are not

1:09:43what we thought they were.

1:09:44And so you can't have both, guys.

1:09:46You got to choose. Pick one.

1:09:50Yeah. All right, everybody. This has been...

1:09:53Oh, hey, we listened. You know, I have an incredible EA.

1:09:57Executive assistant. It's really been like, you know, everybody talks about like agents, agents, agents,

1:10:03agents. And this was the pre -agent agent.

1:10:08You know, my EAs averaged around 188 to 200K a year.

1:10:14And then... People right now, their heads are exploding in middle America.

1:10:18Let's tell the truth. I was paying 188 to $200 ,000 a year.

1:10:21They were wonderful, okay? Right.

1:10:24And then I... Jason was like, try this thing called Athena.

1:10:27Athena. Athena. I'm like, what is it?

1:10:29So I call the guys and they're like, yeah, we have these really well -trained

1:10:32folks. They're like geniuses that work in the Philippines.

1:10:36It's $3 ,000 a month and we're building all this tooling.

1:10:39And so as all these agents get better and all these AIs get better, they'll

1:10:43get the advantage of that.

1:10:44I said, okay, I'll give it a try.

1:10:46This is the first time I've had a male assistant.

1:10:48His name is Leigh. Leigh's fabulous.

1:10:50He's a math grad. Math and computer science in the Philippines, okay?

1:10:55And he's excellent. I love Leigh too.

1:10:59Somebody just put it in the chat.

1:11:00I love Leigh. From Nick.

1:11:01Yeah, Nick. Nick, you love Leigh.

1:11:02I love Leigh. Coming to NBC this fall.

1:11:03These guys are incredible. They do everything for me.

1:11:07It's like the most incredible hack and arbitrage I've ever seen.

1:11:11Then I can direct a bonus to Leigh at the end of the year, which

1:11:14is great because then it allows me to feel like I'm giving him really good

1:11:19support. He works my hours from the Philippines.

1:11:23Have not looked back. Go Athena.

1:11:26Athena. Yeah, that's great. I use it as well.

1:11:28I was the first investor.

1:11:30You were the first. How many Athenas?

1:11:32You have one or two?

1:11:33I have one. I had two for a long time.

1:11:34I think I may get a second one.

1:11:36And then that person moved on.

1:11:39You split it between like work and personal or no?

1:11:41Yeah, it's work and personal.

1:11:43As an example, like there's an incredible bakery where I live, like out in Dripping

1:11:49Springs called Abbey Jane Bakery.

1:11:51They don't take orders. But every Thursday, my Athena assistant calls at 8 a .m.,

1:11:57asks them what's on the menu because they change the menu every week.

1:11:59Stop. And then they send me the menu.

1:12:03I order the bakeries. And then he calls an Uber courier to pick it up

1:12:07and drop it off because they're not on DoorDash or Uber Eats.

1:12:10It's just a stupid example of something that made our lives incredible to have the

1:12:13best bakery in all of Austin in the house every weekend for the girls and

1:12:17everything. Everyday problems. Yeah. Everyday problems.

1:12:21Anyway, it's a silly example, but I was having to go make that run and

1:12:25I did it every like fourth or fifth week as a treat.

1:12:28Now it's every week. So you just look at what you're doing.

1:12:31The other thing we're doing is they've been able to.

1:12:35We had Americans who are researchers sorting through the inbound applications from founders.

1:12:41We were able to put an Athena assistant on that and then define it.

1:12:44And then we they're learning how to use OpenClaw.

1:12:46So the Athena OpenClaw. merger is kind of happening in real time yeah no i

1:12:51have i have lay doing a bunch of advanced tasks that i typically wouldn't give

1:12:55to my ea and then he also deals with sort of just the more practical

1:12:59day -to -day tasks scheduling all that stuff anyways it's been it's been an incredible

1:13:02eye -opening thing because it sets a very good example where you know you can

1:13:07be cost effective and still get your work done um and it was really bothering

1:13:12me actually because like the the amount of cost inflation for that role because i

1:13:17don't think i've ever needed an ea i'll just be honest i'm going to put

1:13:19it out there i think i've always needed an aa and i would title them

1:13:24differently and sometimes i would you know i mean i've said this before but like

1:13:28you know even like roles like chief of staff they just don't make sense like

1:13:30the chief of staff should be the second most powerful person in the world because

1:13:34they work for the president of the united states everybody else should not have a

1:13:37chief of staff in my opinion okay it's um it's a major unlock and the

1:13:42problem is we have the lowest unemployment of our lifetimes and it's just people don't

1:13:46want to take the ea or the administrative assistant position in america they just don't

1:13:50there's they want to do something higher up the stack but the people in the

1:13:54philippines you know they do want that job lay's crushing i love lay rj is

1:13:59my guy and uh yeah first you got a guy too i got a guy

1:14:02too and he is also very technical uh so anyway shout out to athena shout

1:14:07out to athena thank you guys thank you awesome yeah friedberg yeah i know you're

1:14:11making great progress you showed me some pictures of potatoes from ohalo um yeah how's

1:14:17that going shipping seed this week to farmers all over north america so we're getting

1:14:21going are you sending seed to our friend roger the dirt farmer he is his

1:14:26son yeah oh that's so great roger yeah i love it roger the dirt farmer

1:14:32is a phenomenal poker player he and keating often play in the game together how'd

1:14:36they do a couple weeks ago they came up crush he visited me the next

1:14:39day both of those two goofballs ran over the game it's so frustrating it's frustrating

1:14:42playing with keating roger is much more of a tag you know a tight aggressive

1:14:48player so it's no picnic there's no free lunch when both of those two guys

1:14:51are in the game and then on top of that you know helmuth coon roble

1:14:55it's like it's not it's murder's row it's murder's row i got i made a

1:14:59late trip to the valley i'm like hey chamath oh james in town i get

1:15:02to play chamath's like uh i got some bad news you're no longer on the

1:15:07list and i filled the game up plus two so i squeak into the game

1:15:12i run up a quick 20 25 dime skis and then helmuth passive aggressive helmuth

1:15:19because who cannot handle the fact that i'm more famous than him now it's just

1:15:23totally tweaked him that chamath and i and you reberg are so much more famous

1:15:27than him it's broken his brain he's like uh okay a car dealer car dealer

1:15:33you're supposed to have a seat and jcal doesn't and i literally just doubled up

1:15:37at that point chamath's like okay i guess you could book the win jcal because

1:15:41you know it's like poor taste to double up and then leave how much you

1:15:44doing 40 50k i was only like 25 times it was you know it's like

1:15:48i used my why yeah hey chamath we're here at the end of the show

1:15:53i just wanted to make sure people know that the liquidity event that we're hosting

1:15:56you can go to allin .com slash events has sold out and we've started a

1:16:01wait list so this is the quickest we've ever sold out i asked kimber and

1:16:05lisa to try to find another hundred seats i think there's like 7 .7 trillion

1:16:11dollars of money that want to attend we can't get everybody in so we're trying

1:16:17to get everybody together we announced bill ackman and andre carpathy last week incredible we're

1:16:22gonna do an iris zone like pitch competition there's like four ways bang hot fun

1:16:29managers what that is for folks who don't know yeah i know a bunch of

1:16:32these guys but four of them in particular are running super hot right now like

1:16:36taking 50 million run it up to a billion to three billion they're just ripping

1:16:41and uh they're gonna go on stage and they're gonna give us their best ideas

1:16:46pitch and the three of us plus i think as many of the guests that

1:16:50can do it we'll vote and then maybe we can even publish these ideas so

1:16:54that folks can can try to follow them they can vet them right it's like

1:16:58a really brave thing to do to get on stage and say hey i'm making

1:17:02this bet like that's great i did it four times yeah i mean i just

1:17:05spanked it but hopefully these guys can do the same thing but listen we have

1:17:09a natural resources pitch we have something in health care we have something in tech

1:17:12we have something in genius it's great it's like all the big category we have

1:17:16something in crypto so it's you're gonna get every shade of every whippy big alpha

1:17:24market by the way you created a bit of a storm on the interwebs with

1:17:28your tau mentioned in the uh uh jensen interview i just asked jensen a question

1:17:33i'm not long tau he redirected it to something which is folding at home which

1:17:37is i think if you don't know it you should look it up but it's

1:17:39how you can allocate compute to helping solve health problems the point is these open

1:17:43source projects or these distributed compute projects are the future the real question is what

1:17:49is the architecture and the incentives none of us knows that yeah but man i

1:17:52think it's so important and then all these goons went crazy went crazy well i

1:17:58mean the reason is because i did place a bet on tau like a couple

1:18:02of weeks ago i went public with hey yeah i've got a small bet here

1:18:05because i think these subnets are fascinating your child computing your child i mean i'm

1:18:10not i mean it's like i might be five or six hundred thousand dollars a

1:18:13tiny bet your syndicate maxing no i did it myself i did it myself i

1:18:17made a small bet on tau because i watched exactly what this retard is syndicate

1:18:22maxing i'm it's not i'm not retard maxing here but i am certainly not doing

1:18:26any introspection i am just doing deals on great founders and companies andreason has been

1:18:32rage tweeting about this guy that he watches a genius who posts these videos about

1:18:37retard maxing yes i watched the videos it's incredible this guy is what is the

1:18:43guy's name i don't know what i don't know but he goes on his back

1:18:45deck he's got a weber grill smoking a cigar he pops out a cigar and

1:18:49he says listen it doesn't matter that just be the most incredible contribution your life

1:18:54that's the most incredible contribution andreason may be making to culture and society in america

1:18:58not the browser that he found this guy i encourage you nick find the video

1:19:02post the links this guy is incredible because you're overthinking it folks just oh my

1:19:09god your life and work hard and don't think it through because look what happened

1:19:15to freeberg he starts ruminating love you boys don't ruminate just go sell software and

1:19:20go make better potatoes for you no more ruminating and therapy for you freeberg come

1:19:25on the program anytime mark andreason retard max with us here on the all -in

1:19:29pod love you boys we'll let your winners ride rain man david sacks and it

1:19:40said we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it

1:19:43love you we should all just get a room and just have one big huge

1:20:05Because they're all just useless, it's like this, like, sexual tension, but they just need

1:20:09to release them out. Wet your feet.

1:20:13Wet your feet. We need to get merch.

1:20:18I'm going all in. I'm going all in.

SpaceX IPO, Iran War Fallout, Quantum Bitcoin Hack, The Space Opportunity