It's a Numbers Game: AI Panic Explodes: Voters Turn on Big Tech, Jobs at Risk & 2028 Shake-Up
3/25/202648 mincomplete
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0:33Tees and sees apply. Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Gerdusky.
0:39Thank you for being here, ladies and gentlemen.
0:41So I was looking around and playing around some of the numbers of the listenership
0:45of this podcast listenership over the weekend, checking out, you know, where my audience is
0:49and who was responding to it.
0:52And I really, really, really want to do a live podcast taping this year.
0:57Like, that would be my goal for this podcast is that this year we can
1:00get an audience together and I could do a live event.
1:04I just think a live, ask me anything, so it would be so much fun
1:07and I could have a guest come stream in or can be there, you know,
1:10in person depending on the place and the time.
1:12So that's what my goal is.
1:14And the show has been growing pretty successfully and the audience has been very loyal
1:19and I'm so happy for it.
1:20And I was looking at cities.
1:23So Houston is the biggest city for this podcast as far as listenership goes.
1:27And then it's followed by a city that I never heard of.
1:32And I can't believe how big my audience is there, but it's Hutchinson, Kansas.
1:37I have never been to Hutchinson, Kansas.
1:39I've been to Kansas many times, but never Hutchinson.
1:42But I have a strong following in the city of Hutchinson, Kansas.
1:47After Hutchinson, it's Dallas and New York and Denver and Phoenix and Atlanta and the
1:51places you would think, you know, have big listenerships because there's a big population.
1:55But if anyone, if there's an organization or a group or anybody that wants me
2:01to come to do a live event in your city, email me ryan at numbersgamepodcast
2:06.com. We charge, you know, a low overhead just to make sure we cover costs.
2:11I don't need to make a lot of money off of it.
2:12The show is doing great.
2:13I have a million other jobs, but I really think a live event would be
2:17wonderful. So if you're interested, email me ryan at numbersgamepodcast .com.
2:22Same as Ask Me Anything time.
2:23Tell me if, you know, we could pack a house.
2:26If we could pack a house, if we can get people there, I'm down to
2:29do it. I just think it'd be so great.
2:31So thank you guys so much for continuing to support this podcast.
2:33I really appreciate you all.
2:36Okay, let's talk about some polling from around the country.
2:38Let's do a little polling pick -me -up.
2:40In Wisconsin, Republican Tom Tiffany is in the margin of error for governor against all
2:47leading Democratic candidates. He's down three points against Sarah Rodriguez, two points against Mandela Barnes,
2:53who is the lieutenant governor, one point from David Crowley, and he's ahead three points
2:58from Francesca Hung. Barnes is leading in the polls, but Francesca actually had a recent
3:04poll that had her ahead.
3:05It's more likely Barnes only has a name ID and support, but Francesca is like
3:09the super progressive candidate, a very far -left candidate.
3:12Although Barnes is like, you know, I don't know how you get further off than
3:16Barnes, but Francesca managed it.
3:17She just, she outdid him on, you know, hating, hating capitalism just a little bit
3:23more. Over in New Hampshire, a St.
3:26Anselm poll found that Republican Governor Kelly Ayotte is leading likely Democrat candidate Warmington, that's
3:32the last name, by six points.
3:34It's a healthy lead for a Republican candidate in a state that voted for Kamala
3:38Harris. On the Senate side, this is the sleeper race.
3:42In the New Hampshire race, no one's paying attention to, but it is the sleeper
3:46race of the year. Former Senator John Sununu is down by just three points against
3:52Congressman Chris Pappas, the likely Democrat.
3:56You know, Sununu was a senator a while ago.
3:59He lost re -election, I think, in one of the Democratic waves, I think 2008.
4:03But he's from a legacy family.
4:06His brother was a super popular governor.
4:08His dad was an icon in the state.
4:11I think his dad's still alive, but he was George H .W.
4:13Bush's chief of staff, and he was a governor himself.
4:17It's just, New Hampshire's this weird place where, like, four Lebanese families will run the
4:21entire state, and the Sununus are one of them.
4:24And just incredibly, incredibly popular.
4:28He's not a Trumper, but he's endorsed by Trump, so there's immunity in the Republican
4:31Party, and his name ID is not associated with Trump, which you would need in
4:36a year that's not favorable for Democrats, for Republicans, rather, especially with the Trump brand
4:40not being great. I just think, I mean, I'm not saying he's going to win.
4:44I think it is the sleeper race of the year, especially given that New Hampshire's
4:48had such tight federal races in the last couple cycles that no one really picked
4:52up on. Over in Los Angeles, this is not a federal race, this is a
4:56local race, Mayor Karen Bass is at 25 % against Los Angeles City Council Chairwoman
5:02Nitha Rahman, and I think that's the progressive candidate.
5:06She's at 17%, and reality show star Spencer Pratt is at 14%.
5:11Now, Karen Bass is famous for not being in L .A.
5:13during the fires that destroyed an entire neighborhood, that now she's trying to get Section
5:178 housing built in that neighborhood in the Palisades.
5:21I've been to the Palisades.
5:22palisades it's such a beautiful area it's horrific what's happened to it and how karen
5:26bass has um been neglectful to say the least and uh spencer press running as
5:33like the de facto republican candidate which is there a better person i don't know
5:38he's definitely trying to to get his name out there but karen bass who was
5:42away while city burned is still leading in the polls which is uh not wonderful
5:46and last but not least there was a cbs poll asked do you support voter
5:50id 80 percent of people supported it 20 percent opposed when the poll also asked
5:58when do you support requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote 66 percent said
6:05yes 33 percent opposed that includes 93 percent of republicans 61 percent of independents and
6:1143 percent of democrats it also included 60 percent of the black vote considering they
6:15always say the black vote will suffer from you know requiring citizenship 60 percent of
6:19black voters support it okay now i want to talk about the generic ballot because
6:24that was you know a lot of these polls have been good news for republicans
6:27because there's tight races republicans are not being blown out in some of these races
6:30they're competitive in wisconsin competitive in new hampshire competitive you know in a number of
6:35these places but the generic ballot is moving in the other direction for republicans first
6:42being the emerson poll the emerson poll has democrats dominating the generic ballot by eight
6:48and a half points winning independence democrats are winning independence in this poll by 18
6:53points and they're winning latinos by 21 points that's actually a pretty good number of
6:57latinos because it shows in a year that looks like 2018 generic ballot wise the
7:03republic latinos still have not moved back to where they used to be in 2018
7:08numbers where it would be like 36 or 38 or 40 point landslide for democrats
7:1221 is actually very good considering it shows that the um transition of latino voters
7:18is really sticking even if they're not happy with trump right now or the republican
7:22party they're not willing to move back to the democratic party like they used to
7:25um the poll also has republicans only leading by the white vote by two points
7:31if that i mean i don't believe that that's true it's never been that small
7:35if that's true it is the gop really is screwed that follows a similar number
7:40from a from a there are from the website the argument they did their own
7:43internal poll the argument is a left -wing outlet but they're smart left -wingers they
7:49put out information that makes liberals uncomfortable at times and i think they're intellectually honest
7:54although they're a bias but everyone has a bias you can't really help it they're
7:58not like um gee what's his name gene morris or something from the he was
8:03the other economist he's just like a straight -up hack this is a liberal i
8:06think with a brain um so i i read their stuff trump's favorability is negative
8:1118 according to their poll um 17 percent of trump voters disapprove of the job
8:17he's doing and he's underwater with every key demographic and he's just tied among whites
8:24without a college degree pretty awful the primary driver is the economy voters hate this
8:32trump economy and they're blaming him you know for i'm down in ruby red louisiana
8:37and voters are just feeling disappointed there they they were hoping for the first term
8:42all over again and they're not getting it and there's anxiety and a lot of
8:47people are just barely getting by and they're really struggling and and i i think
8:51that there's this divorce mentality from how bad it is on the streets from you
8:58know 1600 pennsylvania avenue 65 percent of voters feel like the economy isn't keeping up
9:04with the cost of living um now is that true not necessarily untrue right because
9:13we've seen what inflation is and we've seen the growth in job wages wages are
9:18growing pretty fast and and inflation is down significantly from the about from the from
9:23the uh biden era although with gas prices just jacking up because the iran war
9:27maybe they were feeling it more i don't know when the poll exactly was taken
9:30i think that gas prices started going up at the same time the poll was
9:33being taken and only 25 percent of voters feel their financial situation is improving 50
9:38percent of voters think the economy is getting worse once again is it getting worse
9:44not not terribly worse i mean a lot of this is about feelings and you
9:50know venture always says facts you know facts don't care about your feelings that is
9:54true but voters don't care about facts you have to feelings are the only thing
9:59that matters sometimes to voters so you have to kind of feelings matter a lot
10:05to people and you can't tell them they're wrong you have to justify their feelings
10:08and explain how things are getting better to comfort them um so it is what
10:14it is one interesting data point that the poll found out is voters have a
10:18preference for lower prices over lower unemployment i don't find that to be true only
10:25because in this country we have gotten so used to unemployment being under five percent
10:31we don't in for most people we don't remember what 10 12 15 percent unemployment
10:37feels like um and that's i i think that's why people are arguing on more
10:42out prices than actual unemployment right now among all registered voters democrats leave 46 to
10:4840 among this poll but among One of those definitely going to vote, it is
10:5155 -45 because voter enthusiasm is over the moon for Democrats right now.
10:58Zacharin Danini, who I've had on this podcast twice, such a smart, such a smart
11:02guy. He's a data scientist.
11:05He actually puts out, though, when you pull all the polls together, Democrats' lead has
11:10actually shrunk a little bit in the last few weeks.
11:12It says Democrats have an overall national lead of 4 .6 despite these polls, although
11:16I think they are two good pollsters.
11:18A D plus 8 environment, which is what these two polls say, means that Republicans
11:23will lose the Senate. A D plus 4 .6, as Zachary Danini notes from all
11:27the pollsters, that's where they keep the Senate, lose the House, but not by more
11:32than, I don't know, 15 seats, 12 seats, 18 seats, 10 seats.
11:36It's not an overwhelming, it's not a 40 -seat landslide.
11:41Now, there are so many factors into why prices are going up.
11:44There's, you know, there's too much money in the system because our government cannot stop
11:48running deficits and adding to the debt.
11:50There's the war with Iran.
11:51There is problems with how companies are restructuring post -COVID.
11:56There is a lot of instability in the market.
11:59There's the fact that a lot of companies hired too much during COVID and now
12:02they're firing people. I will say this is anecdotal.
12:06This is not data to provide it.
12:08I think one thing going to benefit Republicans is the upcoming tax season with the
12:13rebates. I spoke to a relative of mine who is a hairstylist.
12:18She lives on tips. Because of Trump's no tax on tips, her tax rebate was
12:24750 % higher than the year prior.
12:28It was a life -changing amount of money for, I won't say life -changing, but
12:33year -changing life amount of money for a person in a blue -collar job.
12:37And considering that 17 million Americans work in the tip industry, this could be a
12:44lot. This could bolster working -class Americans' incomes substantially going into the election year.
12:53So I am hopeful that come May and June, as long as people file their
12:56taxes on time, which Lord knows I love an extension, I think that those tax
13:02rebates will help a lot of working -class Americans and maybe ease a lot of
13:07anxieties around the economy. Another big problem, though, and this is something that won't be
13:13felt from a tax on tips, a big problem is too many Americans feel like
13:18Trump is focused on the wrong things.
13:22I know, I'm going to piss people off, he's got to relax with the foreign
13:26policy stuff. I know it's legacy building.
13:29I know it's important. We're in an election cycle, though.
13:32Americans don't care about foreign policy.
13:34They don't. They don't care about foreign policy.
13:37Venezuela, as I've said in this podcast, was flawlessly done.
13:41Flawless. 10 out of 10.
13:43No one cared. It was a brief bump in the polls by a point, and
13:47everyone went back to their life.
13:49Iran is much more complicated, and it's having a lot more repercussions in the economy
13:54and locally, not to mention there are dead Americans now.
13:58Trump, at this point, needs to start calling all these executives who have promised to
14:03open up all these warehouses and factories across the country and hire all these Americans
14:07and start showing up to ribbon -cutting ceremonies every single week.
14:13Send J .D. Vance out.
14:14Send your key allies out.
14:16Send a commerce secretary, whomever, or a secretary of treasury, whomever.
14:22However, make sure they are at these ribbon -cutting ceremonies where you're going to break
14:27brown on new construction, where you're going to hire new workers, take photos with new
14:31hired workers. This is of the effort.
14:34This is the effort needs to be put in to make sure Americans know that
14:38you care about the economy.
14:41Go invite a bunch of people who got tax relief or they were servers at
14:47restaurants or they were hairdressers or worked in hotels, whatever the case is, and they
14:51got tips, to talk about how much of a relief the economy is from the
14:55no tax on tips. You really have to emphasize, I care about the economy.
14:59I'm a businessman. I care about the business of people's everyday lives.
15:03Don't worry about what is going on at a war table in Tehran.
15:07What is happening at the kitchen table in Dallas, in Detroit, in Cleveland, in all
15:14these exurbs and suburbs and rural America?
15:16You have to, it has to be concentrated so heavily on the economy right now.
15:21And Congress, you know, in this meantime, have to start bringing up all the easy
15:27bills. Get Mike Johnson to bring up the easiest bills and make Democrats vote against
15:32them. Hang it over their head, going into election season.
15:36Have Thune bring them up to votes.
15:38Even if they fail, it doesn't matter.
15:40Let Democrats own every bad policy issue.
15:44Chris Murphy, who's got an IQ of like well water, he was on, I forget
15:51what show, MS Now or something like that.
15:54And he said, he was like, the people we care about the most are undocumented
15:58Americans. You have to make them own all these stupid, insane positions.
16:04Democrats have so many good populist positions that they care about on health care.
16:10I'm not saying they're well thought out, but they're popular with American people on abortion,
16:15on health care, on... On...
16:17more and more. And then they'll be like, here are, you know, winning issues, left,
16:22right, and center. And by the way, along with these winning issues, you have to
16:25let an illegal alien man who identifies as a girl who was 37 priors shower
16:31next to your daughter. Like they will destroy any type of well wish any well,
16:37well, any welcome that they have with with voters at all.
16:41They just they have to they can their brains are broken on trans issues and
16:46illegal immigrants and crime to the point that it actually hurts issues.
16:50They're so popular with the American people with and that's honestly the benefit of the
16:53Republicans. But the Republicans have to get on message.
16:56Trump needs to get on message.
16:57It is of the essence.
16:59And one of those messages and you know, I've talked about this a lot is
17:02AI. Both parties, man, they're missing the message.
17:07They're missing the point on this right now.
17:08And I have a guest on the show coming up next.
17:10Andrew Egger, my buddy from the Bulwark.
17:12He is here to talk about how both parties are missing out on the AI
17:17conversation that everyday Americans are having.
17:20That's coming up next. Stay tuned.
17:23It's Mojo's Summer of Joy, helping you build the ultimate summer staycation at home.
17:29Enjoy a range of luxury five star inclusions with every M series home.
17:33Plus get $65 ,000 off your build.
17:36Think premium upgrades like 900 millimeter higher appliances, ducted air conditioning, resort style bathroom, even
17:42solar power, all included. Don't check in when you can move in.
17:46Switch to holiday mode with Mojo Homes.
17:48More summer joy. Mojohomes .com .au.
17:51T's and C's apply. With me on today's episode is my buddy, Andrew Egger, who
17:57writes the morning shop for the Bulwark, the morning newsletter.
18:00It's great. I actually do subscribe and read that.
18:02Thank you for being here, Andrew.
18:03Hey, Ryan. How you doing?
18:04You wrote a really interesting piece called Everybody Hates AI.
18:09And you point to the NBC poll showing that AI is one of the few
18:13policy pieces that there's really no consensus of which party has the most trust in.
18:19And you wrote this. That's what opportunity looks like.
18:22The party that can write the argument over AI is set up for a political
18:26windfall and then will be tasked with the shepherding of the country through the massive
18:30disruption towards a process rather than a dystopian AI integrated future.
18:35If possible, no pressure. But so far, it seems like basically everybody is blowing it.
18:41Is the question that they're blowing it because it's so new or are they blowing
18:47it because they don't know what side their side should be taking?
18:51I would say right now, most of what you are seeing when it comes to
18:56AI policy is you have this brand new thing.
18:59It's going to be uniquely disruptive economically.
19:01It's set up to be uniquely disruptive politically.
19:04I think a lot of people are just waking up to this.
19:06And that's what that poll kind of demonstrated is that, you know, voters have their
19:10views on which party tends to be more trusted on, for instance, crime or immigration.
19:16You know, they're going to go for the Republicans or, you know, voters tend to
19:20give Democrats the edge on health care, you know, civil rights, constitutional protections, those sorts
19:27of things. AI is a complete no man's land.
19:29And I think that that not only is it a complete no man's land in
19:33terms of people knowing which party they they, you know, want to want to cling
19:36to on it. But even even the idea that the issue is becoming so much
19:41more salient is new. I think a lot of policymakers are waking up and realizing,
19:45wait a minute, there's this enormous political latent energy out here where this issue is
19:50only becoming more and more and more and more important.
19:54And then we need to figure out how we're going to take a stance on
19:57it. Some of the part of the problem is that we are really just seeing
20:00policymakers kind of fall back on frames of understanding, you know, for the last whole
20:06set of technologies in order to kind of do the opening shots of AI regulation
20:11here. So there's a lot of on the Republican side, there's a lot of just
20:15let's let's just let it rip, baby, you know, free market type stuff, get the
20:19data centers in there. Let's just go.
20:22And on the Democratic side, you see a lot of, you know, we need to
20:26we need to restrain this thing quick and fast.
20:28And there are a lot of different kind of, in my view, bad policy levers
20:34that they're reaching for to do that.
20:35One of which the one I wrote about in the piece is is this idea
20:38of sort of protecting professional classes, like like doctors or lawyers or therapists, or, you
20:45know, basically anybody that that you need an occupational license from the government to practice
20:49in a given state, if you're a human being, basically just sort of freezing AI
20:54out from from sharing any views on any of these any of these issues.
20:58That's like one one way.
20:59Another thing is these, these sorts of copyright lawsuits, the idea of, you know, basically
21:04holding these, these companies accountable for the AIs having had their training data, you know,
21:10pulled from perhaps copyrighted works, there are a lot of current lawsuits going on about
21:14that. But but you know, there's various sort of policy ideas in the pipeline about
21:19sort of using those to sort of divert big amounts of the of the profits
21:24from these companies back to, you know, the people who the data was trained on
21:27things like that. And then there's just, you know, more kind of disruptive even than
21:31that ideas out there, like just sort of banning data centers altogether.
21:34And this is actually not just a Democratic thing.
21:36You've seen people like Rhonda Sanders in Florida, you know, Huckabee Sanders, throw himself Yeah,
21:41yeah, they're sort of like a populist synergy and the Republican Party as well.
21:45that, that, that is basically just no AI.
21:48Thanks. Thanks, but it's not for us.
21:50You know, we've, we've taken a look at it and we don't really like it.
21:52There's an enormous amount of political, like energy out there behind this.
21:56I've talked to a number of people who sort of do public, public opinion research
21:59in this field. And I think that the, the, the take you hear from those
22:03sorts of people is like, however bad you think it is, it's worse.
22:06People just don't like this thing.
22:08They, they, there, there's a, there's going to be a lot of appetite to, to
22:12maybe crush it. And, and that's going to be a thing that politicians are going
22:14to try to channel. Yeah.
22:16And I, so I want to get to two things you should mention.
22:18One is the difference between state Republicans and federal Republicans are, is a world apart.
22:24Like, you know, it's funny, very funny.
22:27The line out of coming out of Washington, the Republicans were using were if you,
22:31we don't regulate this and California will, but the truth is Arkansas, Tennessee, Florida, Texas,
22:37they all regulate AI, all these deep red States.
22:39It is not just a California thing at all.
22:41Now there shouldn't be a federal standard, but the Republican States want to regulate it
22:45just as badly as democratic States do.
22:47And I think, and maybe I'm wrong.
22:49I think that's because a lot of Republicans in Congress are older.
22:54They are not, you know, it's not the top of the list for them.
22:58And two is a lot of them are taking notes and cues from Trump who
23:02is super pro AI. He's the AI president.
23:05What is your opinion on that?
23:07Yeah, I think, I think that's basically correct.
23:09The, the, the white house, this white house in part, because of sort of campaign
23:14like alliances that sort of sprung up during 2024.
23:18I mean, you've seen a much more kind of muscular tech coalition, the sort of
23:23new tech, right. That, that has the president's ear on a lot of this stuff,
23:27a lot of policy things.
23:28And, and AI is maybe the biggest one last year, the, the white house put
23:32out, put out an action plan that was basically along the lines of what I
23:35was talking about earlier, where, where, you know, kind of couching it in national security
23:38terms, not, not, not like us versus California, but like us versus China is kind
23:42of more of the, more of the frame there where, where it's, you know, they're
23:45developing their models over there.
23:47We're developing our models over here.
23:48We're lucky enough to have all these companies, you know, be American companies.
23:52And, and we, we, we basically just need to focus on unleashing them.
23:55Obviously that's been complicated in a couple of different ways recently.
23:58I mean, the, the, the department of defense is currently in a big fight with
24:02Anthropic, one of the leading AI companies over some, some use policies, we can set
24:06that aside, but that's been kind of the white house's line.
24:08And I think that, that, that sort of national security line is another part of
24:12why, uh, there's, there's sort of more of an appeal for some, like you say,
24:16older, uh, uh, lawmakers who that's one of their primary frames for, for viewing the
24:21world. The other part of it is just that, I mean, this, this industry is
24:24spending a lot of money lobbying on this, on this topic.
24:28So it is sort of shaping up as well to be one of these things
24:30where, you know, they realize how much sort of like insurgent populist backlash is building
24:35up against them. They're like, wow, we better get out ahead of this thing before
24:38we just end up sort of, you know, legislated out of existence really.
24:42And so they are, they, they are throwing a lot of money around for, for
24:45congressmen who might want to, uh, to take a more pro AI stance too.
24:48I say that as a bad thing.
24:50I'm very pro AI myself, I should say.
24:52Um, but, uh, but, but, but it is one of these weird dynamics of, of
24:55sort of populist energy versus just a whole lot of money, uh, flying around in
24:59Washington. Yeah. I'm, I'm, I'm pro AI to a point.
25:02I do think it needs, I, it's not the internet.
25:04It needs, it's different, it's a different beast and there should be some, some regulations
25:09around it, considering that like, you know, every once in a while AI developer goes,
25:13yeah, and there's a 40 % chance it ends humanity.
25:16I'm like, Hmm, maybe we should have a conversation.
25:19That's a bigger number than one or two.
25:21Um, and you know more than I do.
25:24Um, the, but the funny thing is, is that you, as you mentioned, the populist
25:28backlash, there was a Yuga poll that came out just like an hour ago, um,
25:33from this recording. And they asked voters, what industry has too much power in Washington?
25:38And AI beat guns, Israel, um, evangelicals, uh, unions, like to do that in such
25:49a short period of time, to break people's generational mindset of like, Oh, you know,
25:54we've heard forever that the NRA, which is a functionally bankrupt organization that has essentially
25:59no power anymore. We've heard from Democrats for generations.
26:03NRA has too much power, even though that is not true anymore.
26:06Um, to break that mindset of, of all these organizations on the right and the
26:12left to be the organization has too much control in the midst of the Iran
26:16war, in the midst of everything shows really that there is an anxiety that is
26:21so real and palpable. And the answer of just let it rip is not going
26:28to suffice to average voters, especially if the unemployment rate does inch up to 10
26:34% or higher. Yeah. Yeah.
26:36And I would say this is one area where the Trump administration, like I said,
26:39it's had a pretty pro AI stance and it has actually done some good work
26:42on the margins of these anxieties.
26:44Like just, just a couple of weeks ago, they basically rolled out an agreement where,
26:47I mean, one of, one of the many, uh, sort of populist anxieties about AI
26:51is this, this, uh, stuff about energy costs and water usage, right?
26:55I mean, these data centers, they, they, they suck up electricity, uh, and they, you
27:00know, they create a lot more demand on it in a given grid, they raise
27:03prices. So the white house rolled out basically a policy, uh, that, that is sort
27:06of a handshake agreement with some of these companies to shoulder more of those costs,
27:11uh, of, of their own data center.
27:12for some of these hyperscaling companies that in theory addresses that one component.
27:17But of course, that's only one component, right?
27:19And as you're kind of mentioning, I think that there's this sort of belated, but
27:23now very real sort of societal awakening to the idea that whereas even just a
27:29couple of years ago, all of this stuff about it really, you know, mass displacement
27:34of employment and things like that really did seem like kind of a, I don't
27:40know, like kind of a hidden ball trick or something like that.
27:43It's like, oh, these companies are just sort of, you know, making these silly sounding
27:47promises to hype up their own products.
27:49Nobody really thinks this is going to happen.
27:51People are really starting to think it is actually going to happen.
27:53And it is creating an enormous amount of anxiety.
27:56I mean, I've been kind of slow waking up to all this stuff myself in
28:01just the last couple of months.
28:02I mean, we were hardly thinking about AI, at least I was hardly thinking about
28:06AI this time last year.
28:07A lot of people were thinking a lot about it.
28:08But now, you know, you turn around and this could end up being really the
28:13key policy issue of the of the 2028 election.
28:16I mean, like we may be a couple of years already into some some sort
28:21of AI transition at that point.
28:23I mean, it's and nobody the thing that I keep coming back to is that
28:27nobody really has like a full plan for that.
28:29Everybody's trying to kind of like, you know, stick their their picture down into the
28:33stream to like pull a little bit of that sentiment out and channel it toward
28:37one political end or another.
28:38But nobody seems to have like a real vision for what a society that that
28:43that interacts with this extremely powerful technology in a healthy way actually would look like.
28:47Andrew, I will say if I have any talent in this world, it's picking up
28:51political trends like I really I'm actually good at it.
28:54And I sat with a top member of the Trump administration in 2023 before the
28:59election. And I said, you have to have an answer on this.
29:02It is the most important issue coming up.
29:04And they point blank looked at me and said, it's not going to be a
29:08problem. It's not going to displace jobs.
29:09And I was like, you're wrong.
29:11Like, I don't know how else to tell you, but you're wrong.
29:14And I had on Ro Khanna on the show, who's very like hawkish on AI.
29:19He's actually getting a primary challenge from the AI companies about it.
29:22And he said on the show, he was that this was the goal for him
29:28was we need to tax AI to do redistribution of wealth where everyone gets a
29:33check because no one will have jobs.
29:35And David Shore, it's like Andrew Yang's idea.
29:38And it has been for a while.
29:39David Shore put out a study.
29:41He's the progressive pollster. He's very smart.
29:43And he said that people, voters care more about a job than a handout.
29:49Like they don't want a handout.
29:50They want some kind of government backed, government backed job.
29:55And even a plurality of Republicans and Trump voters think it is more important that
30:01AI companies be taxed for the jobs that they lose, the jobs they destroy, rather
30:06than be able to get profits.
30:08I do think we're in a different world than we were in ever, because I
30:12do think this is going to split across party lines in a profound way.
30:16Yeah, yeah. And part of it is just that it all remains so opaque, right?
30:20So vague. Nobody even really knows what the impacts are going to be, where they're
30:24going to be felt first, how quickly they will arrive, because all because we're all
30:28still just sort of like groping our way toward even what the technologies are going
30:31to be capable of a year from now or three years from now.
30:34I mean, like even among the people who are building these things, views diverge wildly
30:39about how much more quickly this can continue to scale, right?
30:43And how how where the bottlenecks are going to be, where where the actual like
30:48like an economy can sort of trundle along inefficiently without like perfect allocation of capital
30:54for a long, long, long time because of various, you know, actual human interests that
30:59are involved. And this seems like a situation where there's going to be a ton
31:01of that. And so the question is, can we can we manage that sort of
31:06situation? Can we can we allow these technologies to continue to be deployed while also
31:10finding different ways to to sort of like blunt the harms, allow the unleashing of
31:15the technology and the and the productivity and all of those sorts of things, but
31:18blunt the harms? Or is it actually a situation where where these these you're better
31:23off without it, where where you're where where it's actually fine for these different different
31:27politicians to basically subject this technology to a death of a thousand regulatory cuts and
31:33and and and nobody really knows.
31:35But they do know one thing, which is that the hatred for it out there,
31:39the anxiety about about it out there, that is 100 percent real.
31:42Like that's not just some like possible future development that's there now.
31:46And I think that's part of why we're starting to see this wave of of,
31:50like I said, different sort of pretty hostile AI policy legislation out there.
31:55And it's going to get bigger.
31:56The AI PACs, the AI alleged affiliated PACs are spending millions on several races because
32:03they want to put the fear of God in these politicians.
32:05There's New York 12. If you haven't covered the New York 12 primary, you should.
32:09It is the race to replace Jerry Nadler's old seat.
32:11There's a guy named Alex Boris.
32:13He's an assemblyman. He worked for Palantir and he wrote the AI regulation for New
32:17York State. They are spending like, I think, north of like 15 million dollars to
32:23defeat him. He's running against John Kennedy's grandson, like and George Conway.
32:29I think, you know, like it's got a great, great parade of people.
32:33But he's actually a serious legislator, even when I even though I disagree with him
32:36on like 75 percent of things, he's serious.
32:39And like I keep telling him where it's like, Thank you.
32:40He has to win only so the conversation doesn't end.
32:44Like if he wins, the fear of all this money dials down a lot.
32:50And then we could actually have a smart conversation.
32:52If he loses, a lot of people are going to shut up out of fear.
32:56But that's really what this election cycle, more than I think who wins the House,
33:01who wins the Senate. The real story is these, and I've been talking a lot
33:05about money and politics for this podcast last episode, APAC, crypto and AI, specifically AI,
33:11spending money is to whoever wins the House really control what is allowed to be
33:16talked about and regulated or not.
33:18And that's why like Boris has to win so we could actually have an adult
33:23conversation. Does that make any sense?
33:25Yeah, no, I see what you're talking about.
33:27I am also very, very interested in the way that this plays out on the
33:31Republican side. I mean, I was mentioning earlier the sort of split.
33:34We talked about the kind of populist versus institutionalist, or maybe institutionalist is not the
33:38right word, but the anti versus pro AI side on the Republicans.
33:41And like a lot of it's concentrated at the state level.
33:44But that's not guaranteed to remain.
33:47I mean, this has been one of the kind of fault lines in the MAGA
33:49coalition for quite a while is just this sort of like tech futurist guys, the
33:55Peter Thiels of the world on the one hand, and the more kind of like
33:58return to tradition sort of social cons on the other side of that particular split.
34:03And it really did feel like a sideshow for a lot of the women, certainly
34:07for the first Trump term, for a lot of what we've seen so far in
34:10the second Trump term, in terms of most of the policies that have been front
34:12and center, they tend to agree.
34:15They tend to align. There have been little flare ups like, you know, the fight
34:17over H1B visas or something like that.
34:20But but but we're really looking at a world where if this does, in fact,
34:24become kind of like one of the defining policy issues of the of the back
34:28half of Trump's second term, I don't know how that coalition hangs together on this
34:32issue, because it just seems like they're they're so diametrically on opposite sides of of
34:38the very, very basic fundamentals of of of the issue here.
34:42Well, I'll tell you a secret.
34:43So this is the secret Republican primary right now, because I'm I've been seeing this
34:47nonstop is the AI gives buckets, the club for growth.
34:52The club for growth has a super close relationship with Trump.
34:55Trump endorsed the same primary candidate club for growth does and everybody wins.
34:59So we're not we're going to have a serious conversation.
35:02We have not yet had that because club AI and Trump are all in cahoots
35:09to all like everyone's singing kumbaya together.
35:12Once that ends, whether through its Trump's presidency or through I don't know what or
35:16a backlash is too big to withhold.
35:18But once that ends, then we'll have the conversation.
35:22But so often when a party's has the presidency, even they saw this Obama when
35:26Obama was president or when Bush was president, you can't have dynamic conversations outside of
35:32what the White House is saying because everyone takes notes from the White House.
35:35So, yeah, I'm frustrated on the Republican side deeply as somebody who does politics for
35:40a living. The Democratic side, I think, has a lot of energy and they have
35:45a lot of they're open to a lot of conversations.
35:47A lot of bad ideas are coming out of the Democratic side, too.
35:49But they're having a conversation, which is what the American people are.
35:54And Shor's data show that like economic populism tied to AI means a four point
36:00swing in Democrats favor nationally.
36:02You go from a Trump 2024 election to Obama 2012 election specifically on AI, so
36:08long as you don't make the other policy positions like a grown man should be
36:11able to shower with a 12 year old daughter.
36:13Like, you know what I mean?
36:13Like it's like co -identifies the woman.
36:15Like as long as you don't do that, like actually there's a lot going for
36:17Democrats. OK, where where can people go to read your stuff, to hear more about
36:22you? Because I think you put out some really, really interesting stuff in your morning
36:25newsletter. Yeah, thanks. So I'm the White House correspondent for The Bulwark.
36:29I write our morning newsletter with Bill Kristol every day, Monday through Friday.
36:33It's a free newsletter. It goes out at thebulwark .com.
36:36And I'm also I'm also all over our YouTube, all over our Substack video stuff.
36:40You know, follow The Bulwark on YouTube if you feel like it or head over
36:43to Substack for our video stuff there as well.
36:45And I'm on Twitter, Edgar DC.
36:46Great guy. Do not let The Bulwark scare you.
36:48He's somebody worth listening to.
36:50Absolutely. All right, Andrew, thanks for on this podcast.
36:52I appreciate it. Thanks, Ryan.
36:57Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment.
36:59If you want a part of the Ask Me Anything segment, let me Ryan at
37:02NumbersGamePodcast .com. That's Ryan at Numbers PluralNumbersGamePodcast .com.
37:06I've got a lot of them.
37:07I love getting these. I think they make the show so wonderful and it makes
37:11me know that someone's listening.
37:13Okay, this question comes from Eric.
37:15He writes, Ryan, the House of Representatives has been 435 representatives since the early part
37:20of the 1900s, 1929. Since then, our population has increased to over 330 million.
37:26I'm a strong advocate of expanding the number of representatives.
37:29Earlier this year, many states did redistricting to increase R's or D's.
37:32My opinion is why not simply increase the number of representatives?
37:36I think the problem is the current reps do not want to water down their
37:40power. In your opinion, what is the correct number of representatives the U .S.
37:44House should have and how do we get the House to expand?
37:47You know, I talked to Matt Gaetz about this when he was in Congress and
37:50he just was always like, his opinion always was, will the House operate better with
37:55more representatives? And that was his big opposition to it.
38:00We have one of the smaller, like, parliaments or House representatives in the lower, lower
38:09representatives, lower body, rather, of parliament, of our parliament, of our Congress in the world.
38:14We are number 24 as far as the size of our lower house of representatives.
38:21Other countries, like, you know, other mid -sized and low -sized countries have much larger
38:26parliaments than we do. France, Mexico, Japan, England, Ethiopia, Turkey, Germany, they all have larger
38:34bodies than us, legislative bodies.
38:37So it's not like we would be out of step with the world if we
38:43increased it. But why we don't increase it, I think, partially is I don't think
38:48congressmen feel a need to do it, and I don't think that they think Congress
38:55will work any better if you increase it.
38:57What do I think is the appropriate size population?
39:00So I started looking at what other countries have as far as population.
39:05We have about 760 ,000 people in every congressional district on average.
39:10Germany has 116 ,000. England has 100 ,000.
39:16Japan has 272 ,000. Most peer nations are between two to 300 ,000.
39:23So I started looking at historical precedences, the cube rule, what ideal representation would look
39:32like. And most very smart analysis said between 480 ,000 to 600 ,000 people per
39:42district. Now, this is purely an intellectual game.
39:46I don't know how you would get to an actual number that would matter.
39:50But I started looking also at the European Union, what their body is.
39:53They have 100 a good number that would restore more balance in Congress to representatives
40:08per people would probably be about 721, right?
40:13It's about the European Union size with one extra seat because we can't have ties.
40:18And that would decrease the number of people per district to the 1970s level, about
40:23460 ,000 people per district.
40:26It would just be much, be much easier, I think, for people to interact with
40:32their representatives. It would cut the population in half.
40:34And I think it would give representation, better representation to states that have, you know,
40:42that are, that are diverse.
40:45But what happens when the population cap is so high is that one city represents
40:49the entire state. So like a state like Delaware, they have one Congress person who
40:54gets all their votes out of the northern part of the state, it's all Democrat.
40:58If there was a fair or if there was, if they had, if they reduced
41:02the number to 460 ,000, there was a fair map, they'd actually have a Republican
41:06seat and a Democratic seat because Southern Delaware is very Republican, but they don't get
41:10any representation. Likewise, New Hampshire would have Republican seats, Massachusetts would have Republican seats, Texas
41:16would have more Democratic seats if everything was done, you know, fairly, which I'm saying
41:20that's a big gift. And I was looking at some states like Delaware would go
41:24from one to two seats, Connecticut would go from five to eight, Idaho would go
41:28from two to four, Louisiana go from six to 10, Texas would go from 38
41:32to 63. It would be a bigger size, it's a hard thing to wrap your
41:36mind around, but I would say about 721 would be a good number.
41:42Anyway, it's an interesting question.
41:43Okay, last question for the show.
41:45This question comes from Ryan.
41:48He writes, I am a man.
41:50I am a man. Oh, okay.
41:51Because I asked you, he wrote to me last time I said, I don't know
41:53if Ryan is a man or a woman, because there are female Ryan's, not many,
41:56but there are. He wrote, I am a man.
41:58I know you read it on your pod and you aren't sure.
42:01My name is Ryan. Anyway, you brought up your grandmother's meatball recipes on the last
42:07pod. I love making meatballs.
42:09What can you share from your grandma's recipe?
42:12Okay, this is probably the most important question that was ever asked.
42:17I'm Italian. I'm 50 % Sicilian.
42:20Making sauce, making meatballs is like, it's our, I mean, the smell of garlic and
42:26olive oil is like my ancestral legacy.
42:29So, and I, oh, you always have to make sauce with your meatballs.
42:34I don't believe in just making meatballs.
42:36I really honestly don't know how to do it.
42:37It's this weird thing Italians have where like, I can cook very easily for 85
42:43people. I do not know how to make a meal for three people though.
42:46It is, I am dumbfounded at the concept of what Porsches actually look like.
42:50I, it's, everything is in bulk.
42:52Like literally Costco is just Italian people's everyday life.
42:57So, um, this is how you make my grandmother's meatball and sauce recipe.
43:02It's not like, we don't, you know, we're not trademarking it.
43:05It is what it is.
43:05Every time it's basically the same thing with a little thing different here or there.
43:08It's a very basic thing, but I will explain it to you since you asked,
43:13and this is Ask Me Anything.
43:14So the first thing you want to do, get a big pot and you want
43:17to coat the bottom of the pot with a good olive oil.
43:21Shouldn't be dripping. Shouldn't be like an inch of olive oil.
43:23You should just coat the bottom of the pan a good amount.
43:27I don't measure a lot of things.
43:29So that's that. And then you need to put chopped garlic on the bottom of
43:32this. Listen to me very carefully.
43:35Do not burn the garlic.
43:38You brown the garlic. If you burn the garlic, throw the whole thing away and
43:41start over again. You cannot burn the garlic.
43:46Once the garlic is brown, you add tomato paste.
43:49It's a small little can you get from the grocery store.
43:51It's very thick. Put that in, fill the can up with water, throw that in,
43:56mix it, get it nice and smooth, and make sure that everything's even.
44:01Then after tomato paste, you get tomato crushed tomatoes and tomato puree.
44:06Those are much bigger cans.
44:08Take the tomato puree, put water in that, put that also in there, and you
44:13want to put it on a low temperature.
44:15I'm talking like if you have an electric stove, low or warm, if you have
44:19a gas stove, like the lowest flame possible.
44:22You add some basil, pinch of sugar for the acidity, salt and pepper and heat
44:29that thing and let it go.
44:30Stir occasionally. Then you go to your meatballs.
44:34I just think a little differently than what my grandmother did.
44:37Everyone has their own kind of specialty.
44:39What I have found in making meatballs is this.
44:42Use a chop meat that is very lean.
44:45So I do like a 93 .7 or 80 .20 chop meat.
44:48A chop meat that is very, very lean, very little fat.
44:51You can go to a butcher.
44:52You can go to Whole Foods, find that.
44:54Then I take that and I mix it with pork, usually from a sausage.
44:59I'll cut the sausage open.
45:00I'll take the skin of it off and I'll put the sausage in or a
45:03ground pork with a healthy amount of fat.
45:06People say 50 -50. I do it 75 beef, 25 pork, whatever the case may
45:10be. That's what usually I do.
45:1175 beef, 25 % pork for like a pound, pound and a half.
45:15The leanness of the ground beef and the fat on the pork are beautiful together.
45:22They are gorgeous. Take a big bowl.
45:24You put an egg, half a cup of ricotta.
45:28It is not pronounced ricotti.
45:30It is ricotta. Put ricotta in the bowl and then you put an insane amount
45:36of Pecorino Romano cheese. You put an insane amount.
45:41They say put like a half a cup.
45:43No, put a full cup.
45:44Put as much as you want.
45:46Heavy on the cheese. Then you do two tablespoons of salt, two tablespoons of pepper,
45:52a chopped garlic again, half a cup of Italian breadcrumbs.
45:55Some Italians make their own bread crumbs.
45:57I don't got time for that.
45:58It's fine. Put regular breadcrumbs, Italian breadcrumbs in the meat and then parsley, like a
46:05lot of parsley, half a cup of parsley.
46:07Then you throw your meat in.
46:08You mix it with your hands.
46:10Wash your hands, obviously, beforehand.
46:12Mix it with your hands.
46:13Your hands will be freezing from this whole process.
46:16You will have to go out and like warm your hands up from this entire
46:19thing because it is cold.
46:21You mix that, you roll it.
46:23Here is where like the magic is made.
46:25And this is a controversial opinion depending on the person.
46:29You put the meat raw directly in the sauce to cook it.
46:34The flavor of the meat is absorbed in the sauce.
46:38You cook the sauce for three hours.
46:40So the meat will cook.
46:41It's not going to be raw after the entire thing is over.
46:44But that is how you really marinate the meat and the sauce together over that
46:50time. And it should literally take about two and a half to three hours, no
46:53minimum of that. Because then it will be just, it'll be too tomato -y.
46:55It won't be good. Like you got to be thick, like the, like the sauce
46:58has to be thick to a bite where it sticks onto the pasta, it sticks
47:02onto the meat. And you occasionally put in some salt and pepper if you need
47:06to, but you don't have to after that.
47:08Stir occasionally, keep it going.
47:11And that's how you make my grandmother's meatball and sauce recipe.
47:14If you want to bake it beforehand, by the way, put in for 10 minutes,
47:18the meatballs, and then put them in the sauce just to make a harder outside
47:21so they don't completely fall apart.
47:23But if you, if you pack it right, it's not going to fall apart.
47:25It's going to be delicious.
47:26As I said, two and a half to three hours is how you cook it
47:29on a low heat. If it's bubbling everywhere and exploding, the heat's too hot, lower
47:33the heat. And you will have Sunday dinner.
47:35I make Italian Sunday dinner every single Sunday.
47:40Catholicism and pasta on Sunday is the two things I still have in the old
47:43country. So after all these generations, I barely register as an Italian anymore.
47:49It's just sauce and church.
47:50So, and it comes on the same day.
47:52Anyway, thank you for listening to this podcast.
47:54I hope you like this.
47:55I hope you like the recipe.
47:56If you like this podcast, please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,
47:59like on YouTube. Give me a five -star review if you're feeling generous, and I
48:03will talk to you guys on Friday.
48:04Thanks.