It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind the 2026 Midterms: Trump Voters, Swing States & the Senate Map
3/16/202646 mincomplete
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast.
0:02Guaranteed human. Pro drivers live for races.
0:07For small business owners, every day is like a race.
0:11That's the value of Lenovo Pro.
0:14Get one -on -one advice, customized hardware, and IT solutions that keep your business moving.
0:19Plus, member -only pricing can help when money is tight.
0:23Take your business further with Lenovo Pro.
0:27Learn more at Lenovo .com slash pro.
0:36Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Gruduski.
0:39Thank you guys for being here.
0:39Happy Monday, everybody. I have some fresh polling information I want to break down, some
0:44data you want to know about.
0:45So let's get right into it.
0:46We have a special guest also who has run focus groups in every important swing
0:51state where there's a U .S.
0:52Senate race going on to talk about the future of the Senate.
0:54If Democrats can win, if Republicans can hold it, let's get into it.
0:58First, an earthquake of a poll came out in Ohio finding Democrats are up in
1:03the Buckeye State, a state I know very well from all my time campaigning there
1:08in a lot of campaigns.
1:10Ohio has—there are parts of Ohio that are lovely, that are beautiful.
1:14There are parts of Ohio that have been lost to time.
1:18I don't know—I don't understand it.
1:20I have been in Ohio sometimes where the roads are closed because literal chickens are
1:24crossing the road. I have been—I did a campaign one time in Ohio, and I
1:28had a man who was, like, for legalizing skunk ownership.
1:34It was his big passion issue.
1:36Another man was carrying lawn signs and put them in the trunk of his car.
1:40He had ferrets in his trunk.
1:41And I said, sir, there are—oh, there are hamsters.
1:43Excuse me, it was hamsters.
1:44I said, sir, there are hamsters in your trunk.
1:47He goes, oh, you should see my garage.
1:49I was like, that is not the answer we were looking for, sir.
1:51I mean, it is wild, Ohio.
1:53Anyway, a poll came out from EMC Research that found that Democrat Amy Acton is
1:59leading by 10 points against Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy in the governor's race.
2:04The poll also found that former Senator Sherrod Brown has a small but respectable lead
2:08against incumbent Senator John Eustad by four points.
2:12Now, this instantly went viral.
2:14Everyone started talking about this poll on social media because they were—I mean, they had
2:19a lot of opinions about Vivek.
2:21Some were very thoughtful, and they said, you know, this is what happens when we
2:24didn't have a real primary, when all these statewide electors who wanted to run for
2:28governor didn't end up running because Trump endorsed Vivek, and it kind of pushed everybody
2:32out of the race. And that's a very thoughtful opinion.
2:36Other people are less thoughtful.
2:37I'm not going to get into it.
2:38You know, I'm not, you know, a big fan of Vivek, but nonetheless, I will,
2:42you know, I respect the man for, you know, some things.
2:45And I—and you shouldn't be—criticism should not be nasty.
2:49And some things—a lot of times with Vivek, it does become nasty.
2:52Anyway, so the opinions were out there.
2:56But I want to point something out, and I think my words are valid, especially
3:01because, you know, I'm not the biggest fan of Vivek.
3:04EMC Research, the pollster who did this poll, is not a reliable pollster.
3:09It is not somebody—now, put that data that they created and put that in the
3:14back of your head. Like, it's—don't ignore it completely, but it's not something to invest
3:19in. And according to the New York—and the New York Times agrees with me, by
3:22the way. The New York Times said the pollster does not meet their requirements as
3:25a select pollster. This is what the Times says, quote, It's just not something I
3:51would give a lot of credence to.
3:53Wait until we see Emerson or we see Ohio State University or some other institute,
4:00Quinnipiac, do a poll in Ohio finding the same results.
4:04If that happens, then I'll say, oh, okay, makes complete sense.
4:07But every poll so far has had, you know, Acton and Vivek up or down
4:12by a point or two.
4:13So to have Acton winning with a landslide 10 points seems highly unlikely to me.
4:19I just, you know, I don't find that.
4:21Also, the fact is, is that Vivek has just put in a massive ad spend
4:26of $10 million to go up on air.
4:28It's going to be running across the entire state.
4:30A positive ad for him.
4:32I saw it. It was his wife talking about him as a father and how
4:35he loves his family and how he loves Ohio.
4:38I will let you guys in on a little secret that somebody who worked on
4:42his presidential race told me.
4:44Now, the ad focuses solely on really his wife and his wife does the entire
4:49narration. Allegedly, during his presidential race and his presidential campaign, they looked at it and
4:58they found that when Vivek was on screen, people liked him less.
5:03That he did not do a great job when he was the narrator, when he
5:07was making his own pitch.
5:09That is, if that, I don't, I heard that.
5:12I didn't see any writing about it, but someone higher up on the campaign told
5:16me that. If that is true, then.
5:21we will likely see more ads that talk about Vivek, but he is not the
5:27main character on screen. I think that's very interesting.
5:32But nonetheless, because he has $10 million, I think that, and that's just the beginning
5:38of the ad spend, it's going to be millions and millions more.
5:40And given the institutional support for Republicans in the state, I still think it's his
5:45race to lose. It leans Vivek certainly.
5:48Unfortunately, until I see more independent, nonpartisan polls showing Acton with real movement, real efforts,
5:56I'm going to believe that Vivek is the likely next governor.
6:00So that's my own personal opinion.
6:02Acton has to start spending money, and she doesn't have nearly as much money as
6:05Vivek does. Now, there's another story that I wanted to cover that I think is
6:08just crazy. Washington State Democrats in the legislature passed the very first income tax in
6:15the state's history, and it's looking like the governor is going to sign it.
6:19So Washington State will become the next state, I believe this is a 42nd state,
6:23to adopt an income tax.
6:25The income tax is a millionaire's tax, and they expect it to add $4 billion
6:29in revenue. According to the New York Times, it would impose a 9 .9 %
6:34annual tax on people earning more than $1 million a year.
6:38Sorry, I said billionaire, it was a millionaire's tax.
6:40$1 million a year, which is projected to affect 20 ,000 households in the state.
6:46Now, here's the thing. It could cause a few billionaires to leave, and even some
6:49people who are just millionaires.
6:51Already former CEO of Starbucks, Howard Schultz, says that he's moving to Florida.
6:55He didn't say it was because of the millionaire's tax, but it just came at
6:59the same exact time it was passed in the legislature.
7:01I think we could all read between the lines.
7:04I have two main thoughts on this.
7:08One, think of Connecticut. Now, you're probably like, what does Connecticut and Washington do with
7:13each other? Connecticut was the last state before Washington to adopt an income tax.
7:18Connecticut adopted an income tax in 1991, and it was supposed to be a flat
7:24tax, 4 .5%. And I believe the conversation at the time was it was only
7:28gonna be temporary, but a 4 .5 % flat tax for all people except very
7:34low income earners to deal with the state's financial problems.
7:38About 1996, it was a permanent thing.
7:41It was a progressive tax.
7:43High -income earners had a 7 % high income tax in Connecticut, and now it's
7:48one of the most tax states in the country.
7:50It's a completely unfavorable tax state when its long history was that it was the
7:55destination for New Yorkers who couldn't deal with the taxes anymore and wanted a quick
7:59commute to the city. Washington is talking about an even higher tax for people who
8:05make a million dollars a year.
8:07And in the last 20 -some -odd years or 30 -some -odd years since we
8:11saw Connecticut adopt this income tax, a lot of businesses have left.
8:16Connecticut is not the destination of billionaires and millionaires like it once was.
8:21And Connecticut's got nice areas.
8:23It's got nice beaches. It's got beautiful properties.
8:26There's a lot of things that Connecticut has going for it.
8:30It's just its tax system is so detrimental that people have just fled the state.
8:36And their Democratic governor has tried to pass tax cuts and tried to make it
8:42a little bit better. So kudos to him.
8:44However, it's not enough. And it's certainly not enough to attract what looks to be
8:50almost an exodus from New York City, given how close it is to the city.
8:54I mean, given how close, you know, if they had no income tax, if Connecticut
8:59was like Florida, while Mandani is trying to push all these radical policies on taxation,
9:05oh, I mean, they would be fleeing there faster than you can possibly imagine.
9:09It makes no sense why Connecticut of all places, but even Pennsylvania or New Jersey
9:15aren't trying to be the Florida of the North.
9:17Like try to make a taxation system that is greatly reduced and benefits people who
9:26want easy access to New York City.
9:28I mean, New York City is 90 minutes from parts of Pennsylvania, maybe two hours
9:32if there's super traffic. New Jersey, Connecticut, 45 minutes, 45 minutes to an hour.
9:38New Jersey is 30, 40 minutes.
9:40I mean, there's so many opportunities for these states to really get, you know, higher
9:46income earners or even the middle class away from New York who are looking to
9:51flee. And they only have to, now under the current conditions, they have to look
9:54at North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Georgia.
9:57That's a much greater migration pattern than just moving, you know, 30 minutes away.
10:03You don't take the kids out of school or, you know, you can still see
10:06your in -laws or your parents or take care of an elderly person.
10:08Like, you can still keep your job a lot more benefits for Connecticut or New
10:14Jersey. And they just chose the opposite.
10:16Washington State's making the same choice right now.
10:19And what I don't understand for Democrats is do you all not think 2030 is
10:27going to come? Like, does everyone think that 2030, when we have this congressional reapportionment
10:33with the census coming out, that you're just all gonna be fine because all these
10:37blue states are losing people.
10:40California, New York, Illinois, you're gonna lose seven or eight electoral college votes.
10:45You're going to make it harder for a Democrat president to get...
10:48elected throughout the next decade because of how bad your policies are.
10:51And it's not all because your housing policy.
10:54Democrats are obsessed with, oh, we just need to build more houses.
10:57No, you need favorable taxation policies, too.
10:59Money goes where it is valued and it stays where it is protected.
11:05People are not just fixed into a certain area because the weather is nice.
11:08That benefits it, certainly. Nice weather is a big, you know, a big reasonable stay.
11:13But in a new digital age, industry doesn't have to stay in any place.
11:18Wall Street doesn't have to stay in New York.
11:20It really doesn't. It's all digital now.
11:22These people are insane. They don't know what they're doing for these states.
11:27And for Democrats who are looking down, you know, the long path to 2030, that's
11:32why their only bet to save themselves from political oblivion is, you know, make Washington,
11:38D .C. a state, make Guam a state, make Puerto Rico a state, get, you
11:41know, get as many states as possible.
11:43It's not going to save you.
11:44It's just not going to save you.
11:45You're making disastrous decisions one after the other.
11:49I know it's going to be super popular because it's a tax on millionaires and
11:51most people aren't millionaires. Nonetheless, what's popular and what is smart may not always be
11:59the same thing. And I say that as someone who supports populists a lot, but
12:02it is not always the same thing.
12:06Taxing yourself into oblivion instead of looking at some things to cut, instead of making
12:09things more favorable for people to stay there.
12:11And also Washington state has some of the worst weather in the whole country.
12:14So you guys are not even appealing to people because you got nice beaches.
12:17It's terrible weather. It's raining constantly.
12:20That's my little rant. Okay.
12:21We have the special guest coming up to talk about what's going on in the
12:25U .S. Senate and U .S.
12:26Senate races, the important races.
12:27Stay tuned for that coming up next.
12:32With me on today's episode is Jessica Anderson.
12:34She is the president of Sentinel Action Fund.
12:37Now, Jessica, you did a multi -state focus group looking at voters in Ohio, Michigan,
12:42North Carolina, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Maine, and especially looked at the differences between low
12:48propensity Trump voters and swing voters, which is a very important context because they will
12:53decide the election. What was the most important difference that you found?
12:58Well, first, Ryan, thanks so much for having me.
13:01You know, to understand turnout for these coming midterms, you have to recognize that the
13:07midterms are different than presidential years.
13:09And what I mean by that is in a presidential year, you can actually get
13:13away without turning out all swing voters.
13:16You could really just focus on low propensity Trump voters.
13:21Well, with the midterms, you actually can't.
13:24Republicans have to have both groups of voters.
13:27So when we did these focus groups, we wanted to understand the distinct things about
13:32both groups. What's making them tick?
13:34What do they like? What do they not like?
13:36And then what ties them together?
13:38And when we find the things that tie them together, that's the magic sauce for
13:42how Republicans can win in November.
13:44So the main things that kind of drove the different groups is the low propensity
13:49Trump voter. They fully see this election as protecting the Trump agenda.
13:55This is about Congress being a partner, not a blocker to the Trump agenda.
14:01They want to see candidates that are explicitly defined as partners of Trump, that they're
14:06tackling the issues that he cares about, whether it's tariffs and trade and no tax
14:12on tips. Of course, all of his immigration reform policies.
14:16These voters are also they're more bullish on the economy.
14:20And they also are willing to give Trump more time on the economy.
14:24So they may feel this.
14:26They feel the same things we do that, you know, the price of goods isn't
14:29exactly where they want it to be or gas prices are spiking or increasing because
14:34of Iran or other things.
14:35They feel those things, but they trust Trump to take a little bit more time
14:39to get it right. So that's the kind of the economic side on the Biden
14:45side. They have zero interest in returning to any form of Democratic leadership, whether it
14:52was Biden, Hillary Clinton, Kamala Harris, Barack Obama.
14:55They have no interest in going backwards.
14:57There's not even an appetite to, OK, who is running the Democratic Party?
15:01And so you contrast that with swing voters in these very same states, you know,
15:07in some cases living on the same, you know, neighborhoods, right on the same blocks.
15:11And the swing voter sees the midterm election as more of like a check and
15:16balance with the Trump administration.
15:18There's some things that they really like that the Trump team has put forward.
15:23And then there's other things that they think could be more well -rounded or, you
15:27know, didn't see around a corner or didn't fully understand the downstream implication of it.
15:32And so they want to see candidates that are kind of standing on their own
15:37two feet, articulating their vision.
15:40In some cases, their vision for their specific state that came up a lot in
15:43Maine, came up a lot in North Carolina.
15:45Well, what are you doing for me in North Carolina, in Maine specifically?
15:49And then they give a little bit of space to say, OK, let Trump be
15:52Trump, right? If Trump's going to do this or that, we're going to let him
15:56do that. And so these swing voters, they they see the same things we do,
16:00that they they see the economy.
16:02They want it to work for all voters.
16:04They want to understand how they're going to keep more money in their pockets.
16:07So those tax cuts and the deregulatory agenda are actually two pieces of the Trump
16:12agenda that tie together the low prop voter with the swing.
16:16voter. And the last thing I'll just say on the swing voter, and it could
16:20have been a little bit of the timing of when we did these, it was
16:23coming right after Minneapolis, right before Iran.
16:27So kind of in a really unique moment in our, in our kind of current
16:31events. But they've got a little bit of that chaos fatigue.
16:34They don't want to see craziness, but it also is a double -edged sword, I
16:40think, against Democrats, because they also see if they, if Republicans lose the House in
16:47particular, that Democrats will revert to impeachment.
16:51And they view an impeachment as a, you know, a witch hunt and more chaos.
16:56So Democrats have to be careful not to lean too far.
17:00But I think Republicans have a huge opportunity with swing voters to say we're the,
17:05Republicans are the party that will govern fairly and effectively, both domestically.
17:10And then when we make decisions abroad, we're putting America first.
17:14Yeah, it's very, I mean, Republicans are between a rock and a hard place when
17:19it comes to being closely associated with Trump, who is not as most popular by
17:25any stretch of the imagination.
17:26And, and all the things that Donald Trump brings negatively and positively, which is a
17:32lot of, um, at least chaos when it comes to how the media represents it
17:37and how he sometimes represents himself, even when things are much calmer than, than they
17:41actually present themselves. And then the second thing is, is they have to appeal to
17:46independence as being their own person.
17:49Um, whether they vote a hundred percent Republican or not, they have to show that
17:53they have an independent streak.
17:55And at the same time, Democrats, there's a lot of conditions that remind me of
17:592006 or 2018, but the democratic brand is so poorly tarnished.
18:06The social trust among voters towards Democrats is probably the worst in the country.
18:11There's very little things that poll worse than being identified as a Democrat.
18:15So they don't have the easiest time either.
18:18Um, they may win just because of social conditions, but it's not, it's not this
18:22pathway to winning 40 seats like we saw in 2006 and 2008.
18:27Um, something that I thought that was very interesting about your, um, your poll is,
18:34is that a lot of incumbent Democrats, uh, or sorry, your poll, but your, your
18:39study, um, found a lot of incumbent Democrats who've really harped on impeachment and abolishing
18:47ICE are not faring super well.
18:51Like they could be faring better.
18:53I mean, among Democrats that I know there is this hope that John Ossoff is
18:57going to win in Georgia by 10 points and then be a presidential candidate immediately.
19:01The voters in your survey didn't seem like they were all that warm on him,
19:05even though that he's, you know, favored to win, but he, uh, he, he's not
19:09looking like a 10 point win by, by this kind of survey.
19:12Yeah, that's right. And, and that's even before Republicans in Georgia know who is running
19:18against him. So Ossoff might be at his peak actually right now before the Republican
19:23primary is, is finished. And what's happening for swing voters in Georgia is that they
19:30see Ossoff, his rhetoric, his messaging, and everything is about Trump is Trump doesn't know
19:36what he's doing. It's against Trump.
19:38It's never Trump. It's abolish ICE.
19:41It's, uh, say no to any common sense economic agenda.
19:45Like when you saw his opposition to no tax on tips, his opposition to crypto
19:49expansion, um, there's just a ton of just normal.
19:55He doesn't care now. Do voters care?
19:58Oh yeah. It's actually really interesting.
20:01Did you know that one in four Georgians actually own a crypto asset?
20:05I did not know that.
20:08Yeah. I did not know that.
20:09It's, it's really, um, you know, I think, I think crypto crypto obviously played a
20:15lot in the spending of 2024 and rightly so.
20:20Yeah. Our hope is for sure that they're back in 2026.
20:24Um, but you know, when they were spending in 2024, it was let's retire Sherrod
20:29Brown. Let's turn the gavels from, you know, Senate finance over to Republicans.
20:34Gary Gensler and the SEC had been, you know, just completely operation choke point 2
20:39.0, right? Like this was a whole opposition campaign to stifle crypto.
20:45So they had really good reason to, to, to be involved and to spend as
20:49greatly as they did. But in the course of doing that, they picked up, um,
20:53more voters and both Trump voters and swing voters that see crypto as freedom, freedom
21:01from the traditional financial market, more choice, um, more convenience for sharing money and investing.
21:08They see it as, as innovative.
21:10They want America to be the hub of it.
21:12And so we ran a difference, a different study than this one.
21:15Um, looking at the battleground States to see how, like, what is the, you know,
21:20how much, how many people actually own a digital asset wallet?
21:23Um, and are they, where are they going to vote on it?
21:25We actually ended up doing a crypto specific focus group in Michigan because I was
21:30curious with union workers there, how that would butt up against kind of the innovation
21:35of crypto. So it's a really fascinating, it's a super fascinating voter block.
21:39People have made money off crypto.
21:40Some people have made a lot of money.
21:42So they're like, maybe I can get on it.
21:43I don't know. I don't, I'm not a big crypto person.
21:46I'm totally against it, but I just don't really, I'm not, this is on my
21:49niche, but I didn't know that it was that high of a priority.
21:53Okay, I want to focus on three states in specific, because this will very much
21:57decide the state of the U .S.
22:00Senate. So the first being North Carolina.
22:02It is probably the most hotly contested U .S.
22:05Senate race in the country.
22:06It is a vacant Republican seat against the former governor, and the Republican nominee is
22:11the former head of the RNC.
22:14How is it looking? Polls are very lopsided in favor of the Democrat.
22:18He's very, very popular. And you said that North Carolinians are among the most, are
22:23like very much saying, what are you going to do for us in that state?
22:27Which would, in my opinion, kind of benefit the Democrat, because the Democrat was the
22:31governor of the state. Yes.
22:34So North Carolina, of all the states, is the most tricky, I would say.
22:39It has the widest gap between the low propensity Trump voter and the swing voter.
22:46Now, North Carolina is, of course, a state that Trump won handily the last three
22:51election cycles. So it has a lot of red meat base voters in the state.
22:56But what's happening now is so many new people have actually moved into the state
23:01that are those traditional independents and swing voters.
23:04So I think, I think the mistake for North Carolina is that you could have
23:10a situation where Watley, who's running on a Republican ticket and Cooper on the Dem
23:15ticket, that all the two of them do is talk about Trump.
23:18Cooper talks about how awful Trump is and Watley talks about how great Trump is.
23:21If they only talk about Trump, that is, that is a huge mistake for, for
23:26I think Republicans, because there's this universe of swing voters that want to hear something
23:31else. They want to know what the plan is for economic growth in North Carolina,
23:36in particular, the housing sector, the banking sector.
23:39They want to know what recovery efforts out West after the hurricane from a year
23:44and a half ago. Now, they want to know what is being done for safety
23:47and security after the horrific slaying that we saw on the Charlotte light rail last
23:53year. So there's really, I think, juicy things for Watley, the Republican candidate, to talk
24:00about. And I think he actually has started to internalize this just this last week.
24:04He was in North Carolina doing a housing roundtable and talking about education.
24:09And Linda McMahon also came down into town.
24:12So I think Chris Turner, too, you know, the president's HUD director.
24:16So I think you're going to see more issue specific campaigning coming from the on
24:23the ground efforts in the state.
24:25And that will, I think, not only raise Watley's profile, but it'll give him something
24:29to talk about and to stand on.
24:31And then he'll also be able to point to Cooper's record.
24:35I mean, this was a governor that when he was governor, North Carolina, you may
24:40remember this, North Carolina, too, it was a state legislative bill.
24:44But that was the first bathroom bill that that ran in the country long before
24:48women securing women's sports and spaces was a national thing.
24:52The front lines of that was North Carolina when Cooper was governor.
24:56So he's going to have to answer for things that maybe he thought he was,
25:01you know, be taking a moderate approach all those years ago.
25:04Now it's extreme. Yeah, it's such a fascinating thing because that first bathroom bill was
25:09very unlike even by kind of Trump didn't like it in 2016.
25:12And the Republican governor lost reelection on it.
25:15And now it is an overwhelmingly favorable thing.
25:18But it's also the trans issue is one of those 80 -20 issues that people,
25:23everyone agrees with, but no one makes it a priority.
25:25And we saw with Winsome Sears, it doesn't do enough to galvanize voters.
25:29So who knows? I mean, it's definitely an interesting race.
25:32And no one has seen Watley as a candidate yet as far as any electoral
25:36history as far as winning races go.
25:38So I'll give him the benefit of the doubt until we see something that changes.
25:42Cooper also is raising a ton of money.
25:44And I want to tell you one other thing, you mentioned this, so about all
25:47the new people going to North Carolina, my aunt, my dad's sister moved to North
25:51Carolina like probably 15 years ago.
25:53And it's from New York, New York, very traditional New Yorker moving down South.
25:58And she was really the first person in my family to move South.
26:01And like within six years, she says, we have to stop all these New Yorkers
26:06from coming here. I'm like, where do you think that you came from?
26:09But like the need to like all of a sudden have that mentality of I
26:12live in the South now.
26:14It's so funny. Okay. The second being like Donut, don't New York, don't New York,
26:19my North Carolina. I know.
26:20But even even funny when you see when you go to Texas, like former Californians
26:26are like the most Texan people you'll meet.
26:28They'll be like, no, no, no.
26:29Get these Californians out of here.
26:31I'm like, you're from Orange County.
26:32What are you talking about?
26:35The second thing is I can say was Ohio.
26:38Ohio not only has a very hotly contested Senate race, but obviously how it can
26:42just governor's race that I covered in my monologue.
26:45What are you picking up about Sherrod Brown?
26:48Because this is a case where incumbency or past incumbency really doesn't look like it
26:52benefits the Democrat, despite anyone saying otherwise.
26:56Sherrod Brown has been there for a long time.
26:59And I think the reputation of being there for a long time doesn't exactly help
27:02him. Yeah, that's exactly what our focus groups zoomed in on.
27:07As soon as they learned that he was a two -time Democrat Senate candidate or
27:11they had forgotten because they had kind of already put all of the Biden years
27:14behind them, once we reminded them that there was just this general sense that he
27:19had been in office long enough, it's time to move on, he's too old to
27:23the previous generation. He was only there for two times?
27:25Yeah, two times that candidate.
27:27I think he was there for 25 years, not 12.
27:2912 years, yeah, 12 years.
27:30Oh, wow, okay. Yeah, but I think that's like, in some ways, it's indicative of
27:38just how much I think Ohio was actually involved.
27:42Like Ohio compared to the other states and definitely in contrast to North Carolina, the
27:46voters in Ohio are so much more conservative than those in North Carolina or even
27:52Georgia. I mean, even fiscal conservative issues about cutting spending and DREG and the financial
27:59impact of these federal programs that Trump has rolled out, like they're not even down
28:03with that. So it's, you know, the Ohio of Bush years, right?
28:08We've been thinking about that a little bit, like Ohio under Bush, it was like,
28:11okay, let's go capture the, you know, the first ever working class state.
28:16That Ohio has become so much more red.
28:20And as a result, Michigan, its neighbor, has really become the heartbeat of kind of
28:26the mix of the working class of union workers, pro -federal programs, a little bit
28:33of fiscal conservatives. Like that's much more the melting pot, whereas Ohio has really become
28:37very, very red meat. And so I think it's interesting that Sherrod Brown is coming
28:45back. It feels a little bit like whack -a -mole, like he was just defeated
28:49and now he thinks he can come back and run against a former lieutenant governor
28:54who is now a senator.
28:55And of course, John Husted knows that he's got to do a lot of things
28:59to get his own name ID up.
29:02But talking and providing that contrast to Brown is the best thing going for Husted
29:07and that will help him with voters.
29:08And John Husted is as much of a generic Republican as anybody could possibly be,
29:13like literally just generic R by his name.
29:16I mean, there's nothing. I mean, he had a pretty horrific interview like this week,
29:20but aside from that, there's very little controversy surrounding him.
29:25Did you also look at the governor's race while you were looking at that race?
29:29What was the difference? Yeah, so what's interesting is that Vivek Ramaswamy, of course, is
29:36who's running the governor's race for those that may not be following along.
29:40And he's been on the road for like, I mean, six months at this point,
29:45right? That feels maybe even longer, maybe even 10 months.
29:48And so he's had a huge runway to build name ID and to start pulling
29:52up his coalition. He's going to pull from cities more than Husted will.
29:57And so I think this will be interesting to see if Vivek will help Husted
30:02with the urban vote and then, yeah, with the urban vote.
30:06And then Husted will actually help Vivek with the rural vote.
30:10And that will make, I think, a dynamic duo on the ticket itself because they
30:15both need each other to have a full ticket win as opposed to in Michigan
30:21where you've got potential split ticket between the governors and the Senate races.
30:26The Michigan governor's race also has a very prominent independent running.
30:29So it's very, it's a much different, I mean, and the independent could win.
30:34I mean, he's not leading, but he's not far behind.
30:37And he is a very well -known and popular name in the state.
30:41He could win in Michigan.
30:44The independent governor could win in Michigan with Mike Rogers winning the Senate.
30:47And then you have a split ticket going all the way down the ballot with
30:51Secretary of State, AG, State House, State Senate races, three House races.
30:56I mean, Michigan has a lot on the ballot.
30:58There's going to be a lot of money spent there.
31:00It's a fun state this year.
31:01I mean, Michigan is not always a fun state, but it's a fun state for
31:04politicos to look at. Yeah, no, I'm curious only because for the governor's race, there
31:09was, Vivek has not been polling well.
31:12And the thing that people forget when they look at Ohio that I'm always interested
31:16in is Ohio, for as red as it is and for as electing as many
31:20moderate Republicans as it has done, the first time a Republican governor runs, they barely
31:25win. I mean, people forget, but Kasich won by two points, DeWine by three.
31:30It has been very narrow wins the first time.
31:32So it'd be interesting to see somebody who's running very far to the right, or
31:35farther to the right than Kasich and DeWine did.
31:38I'll put that caveat there.
31:39I wouldn't say very far to the right, but further to the right than typical
31:41governor candidates does. if it galvanizes people to support them more or less.
31:46It's just, it's interesting. He's got a ton of money and we'll see.
31:49I mean, Amy Acton's doing decent fundraising, but it's a ton of money.
31:51Okay, last but not least, and this is probably the most interesting one to me,
31:57is Maine. Maine has Susan Collins running for her sixth term.
32:02She is been, she's now the only incumbent person in office who's been in a
32:08state that voted against the presidential party every time for the last three times.
32:13And she is a, she's beloved and hated at the same time, depending on who
32:20you ask. And at the Democratic side, you have the election battle between Governor Janet
32:24Mills, who's 80. She's not a young person, and she's got, you know, back and
32:29forth. And then the Graham, whatever his last name is now, I'm forgetting.
32:33I just, a whole episode on him.
32:34Graham Plattner. Thank you. Graham Plattner, who is, um, he's nuts.
32:40Like he's just nuts. There's no other way to say it.
32:42He spent his entire 30s, not teens, but 30s on Reddit ranting and raving about
32:47different insane things. So how is the voters feel going into the Senate race in
32:53Maine? So Maine voters are the most fiercely independent of any of the voters that
33:02we talked about. So they really view life in a split screen.
33:08What's good for Maine versus what's good for the United States.
33:11And if those two things are in contrast, they're choosing Maine, right?
33:14So their top issue is housing.
33:17They're worried about the economy, the cost of living.
33:19They're thinking about oil prices, healthcare.
33:22So all of the issues that the country is thinking of, but they want to
33:25know how it's going to impact them directly.
33:28And Susan Collins, because she has that fierce independence herself, sometimes voting with the president,
33:35sometimes opposing him. They actually love that.
33:38They love that about her because they see that as her decision to focus on
33:43what's best for Mainers. And so I think the challenge in Maine is for those
33:48hundred thousand or so Trump leaning, conservative leaning Mainers that have moved into the state
33:55after her election six years ago, they're going to be first time voters for Collins,
34:00but they voted for Trump in 2024.
34:03They need to feel... Where are they moving from?
34:06Can I ask you? Do you know?
34:08They're moving from New Hampshire.
34:09New Hampshire is moving. Yeah.
34:11They're moving from Massachusetts. They're moving from Boston.
34:15They felt like Boston was too liberal.
34:18New Hampshire is too liberal.
34:19So they're getting out into, you know, the wide out wars.
34:23New Hampshire's government is very Republican.
34:26Yeah. Yeah. There's a whole foot, there's a whole kind of foot traffic going on
34:33in the Northeast. And Maine is attractive because there's not a lot of people.
34:38So it's that libertarian streak, that independent streak.
34:41People aren't going to bother you.
34:43It's a good place to raise families if you can, you know, get over the
34:47snow for however many months of the year.
34:52Yeah. It's really... And it's beautiful, right?
34:54I mean, you've been. It's beautiful.
34:56I'm sure. I love Maine.
34:57I love New England. I love Vermont.
34:58I mean, I love New England.
34:59Yeah. I don't mind snow.
35:01I really don't. So yeah.
35:03I mean, look, I've got a friend that was in DC with us.
35:07They lived here with us.
35:08During COVID, they moved to Palm Beach because they wanted the sunshine and the open
35:13state of Florida. And then they got too hot and they've moved their family of
35:17four, they have four kids.
35:18So a family of six, they've moved to Maine.
35:21It's just, it's happening. So she's a great example.
35:25Her and her husband voted for Trump in 2024.
35:27First time they're going to be asked whether or not they're going to vote for
35:30Susan Collins in 2026. So those voters, those Trump, but independent voters are going to
35:37need to know that it's okay to vote for Collins.
35:41They're going to need a little bit of a permission structure.
35:43And so I think the fact that you have people like, um, state representative, Laurel
35:48Libby, who, you know, rose to national acclaim backing Susan Collins, that shows that conservatives
35:54are, can get behind Collins and can be excited for her while she then does
35:58the things she needs to do to lock down those independents.
36:02And Dems that Dems, I think that will also cross over because whether it's Mills
36:07or Plantner, both of them have major problems with what they stand for, with their
36:11campaigns. I mean, the thing about, about Plantner that, um, I think a lot of
36:16people forget is he's a fraud.
36:19I mean, he grew up with money.
36:21I did a whole episode on this.
36:23He's a fraud. He said white people are stupid.
36:26Rural whites are stupid. He doesn't, he has a, he's a small business owner who
36:30doesn't make any money on his business.
36:32He has, uh, he said at 35 years old, he was a devout communist.
36:36Um, I mean, yeah, the guy is, he, he also trained a paramilitary organization for
36:44socialists, like the Rifle Association.
36:47It's, he's whack -a -doodle -doo crazy, but he very likely will be the Democratic
36:52nominee. I mean, at this point, unless Jenna Mills, unless they are under polling institutional
36:58Democrats who support Mills, either which way, Susan Collins is usually has the fight of
37:03her life against her and she will have a big fight this time.
37:06Um, but she's probably the most, it's, I always say it is good when blue
37:10states have Republican representatives and when red states have Democrat representatives, because when there is
37:16a national issue, it is important that, you know, we have representation.
37:21Like when California had their wildfires, California's going to have very few Republicans anymore.
37:24What's the point of the coalition of the delegate?
37:26How influential will the delegation be when there's only four members and vice versa?
37:31If Texas has a disaster, there's only seven Democrats, how important is their, important is
37:36the delegation to the overall national conversation?
37:39So that's, you know, very, very interesting, but I think Susan Collins is super important.
37:44Okay. Jessica, where do people go to read more about what you do, your op
37:47-eds, everything? Oh yes. Please follow along, um, on X it's just Anderson too, or
37:52follow us at sentinelactionfund .com.
37:54Uh, we've got a great sub stack under the same name, sentinelactionfund .com.
37:58Um, we, we, we send all of this to our sub stack followers regularly and,
38:02uh, we'll be posting from the trail.
38:04We launch our efforts in Michigan next week.
38:06And so. So expect to hear a report of how it's going for Mike Rogers.
38:10Yeah. All right. Great. Thank you so much for coming on this podcast.
38:13Thanks for having me. Appreciate it.
38:17Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment.
38:19If you want to be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email me Ryan
38:22at numbersgamepodcast .com. That's Ryan at numbers, plural numbersgamepodcast .com.
38:27I get to all your questions eventually.
38:28I know I have a lot backed up now, but I will get to them.
38:31I'm looking forward to new ones.
38:32I have a couple of people who send me emails constantly.
38:35I love you for it.
38:36But I always like to get a new one from somebody who hasn't been read
38:39yet. So send me an email when you when you can.
38:42I really, really appreciate it.
38:43It does a lot for the show, too.
38:45OK, this one comes from my buddy Cameron.
38:47He writes, one of my friends has fallen into the, quote, woke right, end quote.
38:51I'm trying to figure out how I can pull him back.
38:53I asked Cameron for details and he said he believes things like the Rothschild conspiracy,
38:57that the Rothschilds were the reason behind all the wars.
38:59Israel killed Charlie Kirk, JFK, Epstein, and Epstein was a Mossad agent, rather.
39:05The Clintons and Bushes were part of a secret society that worship demons.
39:08He has fallen on hard times.
39:10I don't know what to say.
39:11And he makes up new claims faster than I can research the old ones.
39:16This is tough because this is not an isolated incident.
39:20And I think that, honestly, like things like ChatGPT sometimes have made things worse because
39:25they confirm bad conspiracies. I have somebody who I know not super well, but I
39:29know him throughout my life who is he's actually in a mental hospital now because
39:33he fell into a AI induced psychosis where he was like, I think his wife's,
39:38he's spending like 10 to 12 hours a day talking to ChatGPT.
39:42And it's like dangerous. I mean, these are, this is, it's certainly dangerous for people
39:47who are on the fringe to begin with.
39:50What I would say is this, is there are times that conspiracies are legitimate, but
39:56oftentimes they are not legitimate.
39:57And people will look to conspiracies when they feel their own life is out of
40:03control, when it could be poor decision making, bad luck, bad timing, the run, you
40:10know, a roll of the dice, whatever the case is, and their life is not
40:13in the best circumstances, they fall into, or they, or the, or even they think
40:19the country's on the best circumstances.
40:20They fall into belief that there must be a secret cabal of a few people
40:25who have made the decisions to get us to this place, that they are the
40:31victim of all these circumstances and something bigger than them is really what's trouble, what's,
40:37what's, what's making these decisions.
40:39Um, that doesn't, I'm not saying that there aren't lobbyists.
40:43I'm not saying there's not special interest groups.
40:45I'm not saying there aren't politicians doing backroom deals at times.
40:50However, that is not the case for why the country is not, is the way
40:56that it is. It's not the case for why society is the way that it
40:58is. It's not the case for why joblessness is always the way that it is.
41:02Um, uh, and I'm trying to say this very delicately because I don't want to
41:06hurt anyone's feelings if you're on this fringe, but this is how I equate it,
41:11right? Go through your phone.
41:13How many contacts do you have?
41:14I have like 1400 saved contacts in my phone, which I thought was normal, but
41:18my friends were like, you're insane probably not many contacts.
41:21And I'm, and I'm notoriously bad by the way for saving phone numbers.
41:23So it's probably closer to 2000.
41:25Think of how many people of your phone contacts are truly gifted, truly on the
41:32upper, upper echelons of intelligence or talent or something.
41:36Like think about how many are genuinely like blows you away, probably less than 5%,
41:42right? That are really gifted.
41:44That is true of the world at large.
41:48Very, very few people are, are, have genuine explosive talent who could play in the
41:56NBA, who could be a performer on Broadway, who could be, you know, a nuclear
42:00engineer scientist that discovers, you know, a groundbreaking new thing.
42:05Talent is so randomly dispersed and it is so fundamentally rare, right?
42:10Not everyone can write a great novel.
42:12Not everyone can do everything.
42:13I certainly can't do a lot of things.
42:16And for the rest of society, and by the way, and that on the flip
42:19side, only like five to 10 % are truly can't do anything.
42:24Like you're like, wow, this, you're, you know, you're a disaster area.
42:27They can't, you know, they're a little very, very low end for the 90 %
42:31or the 80 % or whatever is there.
42:33You're just normal and you're in the middle.
42:35I know that normal is like an offensive term because everyone wants to feel special.
42:38I don't mean that you're not special.
42:39I'm not saying you don't have, you know, a soul and you're not made in,
42:42you're special because you're made in God's image.
42:44Like that's why you're special.
42:45But I'm not saying you're not special.
42:48I'm saying that you're in just the normal, like you're like the 80 % normal.
42:53I fit in that 80 to 90 % normal.
42:55Maybe I'm on the middle to higher tier, but I'm not in any class, which
42:59would be like enormously amazing.
43:03And it's that 80 to 90 % who are not hyper motivated, not hyper energized
43:10in politics, right? That whole, that whole, that whole group that is true of talent
43:17is also true of political activity.
43:2080 to 90%, they go to vote.
43:22Maybe it's a lot, maybe sometimes, but they're not hyper energized.
43:25And it's the 5 % that never show up and don't care and don't want
43:30to talk about it. And the 5 % who will talk about it at any
43:32given whim that really decide.
43:34a lot of things because they are highly motivated and they have pushed policies that
43:40are not great and they have pushed for things that are not great but they're
43:43not part of a secret society and it's not like they always get their way
43:47and it's not like um they are all communicating with one another do you understand
43:53what i'm saying i think to rather than trying to dismiss or fact check him
44:00every single time you're falling into a rabbit hole that wastes your time i think
44:04it's part of a bigger psycho analysis of what's wrong with you where you feel
44:09like you're out of control of your own life and you feel like americans don't
44:14have a say in their country what makes you feel this way as a whole
44:18because a lot of things that you think are being decided for you one you're
44:23part of the decision making and a lot of things are being decided for america
44:26americans have decided to to go this way to live this way to you know
44:32have falling marriage rates or support politicians that support war or whatever the case is
44:38no one's making south carolina vote for lindsey graham they are choosing to vote for
44:42lindsey graham and likewise no one is taking your country from you a lot of
44:47times your countrymen are giving it away and i think that that is something that's
44:52a very hard pill to swallow especially when you disagree with that i disagree with
44:57how new yorkers voted for mandani but i don't believe it was like an islamic
45:02underground overtaking we have a lot of dumb people who voted in a very bad
45:08way for a man who you know couldn't run an ice cream store and is
45:12running the biggest city in the country that's not the same thing as believing that
45:16there's a secret cabal anyway that's i think how you should approach it approach it
45:21from what's going on with them that they feel this way rather than um trying
45:27to fact check them you're going to end up in a space where you'll just
45:30have a headache and want to cut it off because there's no end to the
45:34psychosis you either have to figure out where they are or or move along anyway
45:38that's this episode i hope you guys enjoyed it i will be back on wednesday
45:41please like and subscribe on the iheart radio app apple podcast or get this podcast
45:45and on youtube please subscribe to my youtube page it makes a lot of difference
45:49thank you guys i'll talk to you later