David Rutherford Show: America & Israel Strike Iran - What Happens Next?
3/2/202653 mincomplete
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0:34America and Israel bombed the hell out of Iran.
0:39Today, the who, what, where, when, and why, and how on The David Rutherford Show.
0:53What's up, everybody? Welcome back to The David Rutherford Show.
0:57Again, everybody take a deep breath.
1:00Ready? Follow me. Deep inhale.
1:05Slow purse lips. Exhale. Deep inhale.
1:10Slow purse. Yeah, man. I'll tell you what, Jordy.
1:13The last 36 to 48 hours has been pretty wild once again, dude.
1:21Were you monitoring the situation on X?
1:24That's what they say. Yeah.
1:26Like, I'm not addicted to X.
1:27I'm monitoring the situation. If you ask my wife and children, it's like, it's parenting
1:34comes intermittently as I scroll through the next outlandish post from one person to the
1:40next. You know, I'm glad that we waited 48 hours before we jumped into this
1:47thing and gave a response or an update and all that.
1:52And just so everybody recognizes, you know, my main objective on this show with Jordy
1:57is to bring context to the tsunami of information that is perpetually being just unloaded
2:05on us every single day and to hopefully give a few flashbangs of truth in
2:14terms of my opinion and my assessment on it again, you know, I spent eight
2:18years in the teams and two years at Blackwater, four years with the CIA and
2:24then, you know, all the other friends and mine that are actively engaged in this
2:31fight right now and in a variety of different levels from DOD to the agency
2:36and others. And so my job is to just try and give you some information
2:43that you can exhale, breathe in, breathe out, you know, take a knee, face outboard,
2:48get a glass of water and, and, and process the totality of what's going on.
2:53So, all right, Jordy, let's, let's, let's, let's dig into this.
2:58All right. So obviously the United States in Israel attacked Iran and this was a
3:08coordinated attack, right? Uh, this was, uh, we called ours Operation Epic Fury, right?
3:16Got to dig. We got some cool names for sure.
3:18I saw this hilarious tweet today of some guy who is a British operator who
3:24was saying, you know, the awesome difference, you know, between us and the States is
3:29like, they have all these cool names and we have like Operation ID 462, you
3:34know, and then we're doing, we're, we're, we're, we're, we definitely have some, some cool.
3:38I remember the guys when we would do ops that got to title all the
3:41ops. It was, there was always kind of like this underlying joke of how, how,
3:46you know, truly epic a name you could deliver to it.
3:49So it's the most important part of the operation.
3:51Yeah. For sure. And, and, uh, Israel called it Roaring Lion.
3:56Uh, now these, uh, strikes were coordinated campaign against, uh, the Iranian regime.
4:03Uh, and these strikes, uh, included nuclear facilities, missile bases, air defenses, command centers, government
4:11buildings, uh, in cities like Tehran, Qom, Isfran, Kermasha, uh, Tabriz, Bandar, Abbas, Shiraz.
4:22And Mashhad, um, high value assassinations, including, uh, Khomeini's, uh, compound, um, uh, nearly 900
4:33different strikes occurred in the first 12 hours alone, uh, basically suppressing air defenses, retaliatory
4:41systems, uh, and disrupting their command and control.
4:45Uh, the Trump administration has said that they've killed, uh, 48 Iranian leaders, uh, in
4:52crew, including their Supreme, uh, leader, uh, the Ayatollah, Ali Khomeini, um, also the IRGC
5:00commander, Mohamed Pakpour, the defense minister, Aziz Nasharida, uh, army chief, uh, Abed al -Halloran,
5:09uh, Musavai, uh, I'm butchering these, am I, my bad?
5:13Um, as well as, uh, uh, uh, others like former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
5:21Um, initially they said Khomeini was still alive.
5:24Uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh,
5:24uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh,
5:24uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh,
5:24uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh,
5:24uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh,
5:25uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh,
5:25uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh,
5:25uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh Thank you.
5:25But then they've come out and they've admitted that he's done.
5:29Now, Provisional Leadership Council has met and they believe that the new person in charge
5:37is the IRGC Brigadier General Ahmad Fahadi as the new commander in chief.
5:44Now, again, it's critical to understand that Iran is broken up really into two factions.
5:52There's the religious faction, which is the supreme leadership.
5:56And then there's the political and military leadership, too.
6:00Obviously, there will be a new Ayatollah pronounced probably after the 40 days of automatic
6:08mourning they put in place.
6:10And then they'll continue to describe how they're going to replace their command and control.
6:17This would be much like the same way any of the other countries in the
6:22region operate. There's a military leader.
6:25There's a religious leader. Just like for us, if, you know, if God forbid one
6:32of our leadership structure was assassinated or killed and strikes, we have a natural default
6:40setting of who rises to power and who takes over.
6:43So, you know, just because we took out the head of the snake, so to
6:48speak, doesn't mean that they're going to point new people.
6:51All right. You know, some of the things that are critical to understand, again, and
6:57I did a show about this last week covering some of what's been going on,
7:02in particular with the buildup to this.
7:04And it's critical to understand that, you know, the overall conflict with Iran and us
7:12has been going back to the early 1950s, when we helped overthrow a socialist government
7:20in 53, basically instilling a person that the Shah, who ended up taking over the
7:29Shah's family, the end results for the Iranian people wasn't great.
7:34He ended up ruling as a fascist dictator.
7:37You know, what we're going to do here is just play that little clip with
7:41Scott Horton talking about this, if you could.
7:44Ayatollah on the plane on the way back to Iran from Paris, France.
7:50Oh, yeah. And he's being interviewed by Peter Jennings, who's asking me, so how do
7:54you feel about your triumphant return to Iran right now and this kind of thing?
7:57Well, I remember even as a kid wondering, but aren't the French our friends?
8:02And why would they send the Ayatollah back to Iran to inherit this deadly anti
8:07-American revolution if that wasn't what America wanted?
8:10But the answer is, that is what America wanted.
8:13The CIA and the State Department had advised Jimmy Carter.
8:17All right, he goes on to talk about how the CIA and the State Department
8:22end up, they were very influential on Carter suggesting that Khomeini was a friend of
8:27ours. And they essentially thought that by allowing him to be installed to go in
8:34and support the Shah, who was losing favor tremendously, that they could basically control this
8:42guy and help us. Now, obviously, there was a tremendous amount of backlash once the
8:52Islamic Revolution took place. We had the hostage crisis in Iran, which was a crazy
8:59fiasco. Ended up, many people believe it was the downfall of the Carter.
9:02Reagan comes in, basically says, give the hostages back or we're going to bomb you
9:07into Timbuktu. They did after a failed rescue attempt during that time from our special
9:14operations. And then, you know, what was interesting in the aftermath of Reagan coming back
9:20in, we had the whole Iran -Contra scandal take place.
9:23Now, if you really want a really substantial breakdown of this, go try and find
9:29Scott Horton. He's not, he's a libertarian, just so you know, so he's very anti
9:34-war. And his whole breakdown of what's been taking place, he's got a great book,
9:41Enough Already, which talks about our presence in the Middle East and manipulating the Middle
9:46East. A lot of people out there want to believe this is strictly a result
9:50of the influence of Israel.
9:53When you also got to remember, we've had very substantial interest in the Middle East,
10:00dating as far back to when oil was discovered back in the early 1900s in
10:06these regions. And so this is not a singular thing.
10:11Obviously, Israel, there's been a lot of mashups prior to going back 40 years of
10:18Netanyahu talking about Iran on the cusp of nuclear weapons two weeks away, five weeks
10:24away. So you'd be pretty naive if you didn't believe that any organization, any country
10:34that has avowed their desire to eradicate Israel from the face of the earth and
10:42the Zionist political infrastructure and Jews in general, you know, they have an existential threat
10:48in their backyard. The one interesting piece about all of this is...
10:52Is... is obviously it's well widely known that Israel does have its own nuclear program.
10:57They have since the 1960s and really getting rid of Iran because we've heard in
11:06the past Netanyahu has said, hey, we've got to get rid of these people to
11:10which all of these people have been taken down.
11:13Now back to the United States and our interpretation of what's been happening in that
11:20country, right? We were doing the Iran -Contra deal by supplying weapons to both Iraq
11:27and Iran for regional conflict between two.
11:30So then we could get weapons that were brokered by Israel to send over to
11:35the Sandinistas down in Nicaragua.
11:37And so we have been heavily integrated into Iranian politics, destabilization, and political activity for
11:46a very long time. Now, as a result of that, obviously, Iran has, especially after
11:53the Islamic Revolution, has come back and waged a pretty consistent covert war through proxies
12:00against Israeli and American interests in the Middle East.
12:04There was Lebanon bombing, which Trump basically quoted as one of the reasons.
12:09He also quoted they were on the precipice of the nuclear strike, although this past
12:14summer in the 12 -day war when we went in bombed, there was multiple messages
12:18that came out of our Defense Department, as well as Trump, saying that we had
12:22obliterated their nuclear program. In a breakthrough operation last June, the United States military obliterated
12:30Iran's nuclear weapons program with an attack on Iranian soil known as Operation Midnight Hammer.
12:38Which is interesting, which is interesting, what I talked about last week in the show
12:42I did where I covered this, where we basically were in these talks, again, about
12:47their nuclear enrichment or their uranium enrichment process and that we had hit that stalemate,
12:52which was the precipice for what took place.
12:55So the conflict we've had with Iran has been, needless to say, complex since the
13:041950s. And moving forward, and I'll talk about here at the end of that.
13:10So, you know, these strikes are really been centered around reducing the Iranian capacity, one,
13:20to finally get to a nuclear weapon.
13:22That's why, you know, I believe it really is an existential threat for Israel, at
13:29least in the region, for sure.
13:30I think there have been many of the local Gulf states that have said Iran
13:38proposes a real threat as well.
13:42Now, if you're not familiar why that's relevant is because, you know, there is a
13:47major Shia -Sunni divide in the region.
13:51And during the GWAT in Iraq, there were a lot of American soldiers that were
13:57killed both by Sunni radicals, Islamists, as well as Shiite militias that had partnered with
14:08Muqtada al -Sadr in Sadr City.
14:11They were using the IRGC to help them construct different types of VBIDs and IEDs
14:19that became very more, a lot more powerful, which killed a lot of American troops.
14:25So to think that American fighters are not in a threat is not exactly true.
14:32And they have been in a threat.
14:34There is some reporting that I saw one news source that said, you know, 47
14:40American service members had been killed by Iranian proxies, Hezbollah, Hamas, the different militias that
14:49we faced in Iraq. So that's all very true, right?
14:55You know, so again, as I go back, this is a very complex issue that
15:01has a very substantial historical provocations from both, from all sides, right?
15:10From all sides, from America, from Israel, from the Gulf states, from Iraq to Iran,
15:18Hezbollah, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood, all of this is in.
15:24That's why as you begin to try and decipher how you're going to emotionally feel
15:31about all of this, it's critical that you really understand the infrastructure of the conflict.
15:38And it's very, very complex and has been going on, as I said, in particular
15:43with Iran since 1953 and probably before that, in terms of our influence in the
15:50region, because, you know, prior to, you know, the World War I, these regions were
15:56not as defined as you would imagine either.
16:00And Persian influence in culture, the region dates back thousands of years too.
16:05So, you know, I just, I just want to predicate as you begin to make
16:13your emotional decisions, which way or the other, to give yourself some time to understand
16:18the true depths of, of.
16:20these complexities. All right. Obviously the latest Geneva talks on February 28th fell through and
16:28that's when Donald Trump said, all right, we're here to defend the American people by
16:33eliminating imminent threats. Again, we keep going back to this reality of imminent threats.
16:39Now, maybe not you sitting in your car listening to this or, you know, on
16:44your phone at home listening to this, but certainly we have hundreds of bases scattered
16:50all around the Middle East.
16:52We have young men and women that are serving over there and there is a
16:57definite potential for danger in all of this.
17:01All right. The strikes, they began February 28th.
17:05Shortly after Geneva collapsed, they continued on to March 1st with new waves on Tehran.
17:12Khomeini's death was confirmed by Iranian state media on February 28th, triggering 40 days of
17:18warning, right? Different, a whole different slew.
17:21Now, we talked a little bit before about the military buildup in the region.
17:27As I said, this is the biggest buildup in the region I had seen since
17:31the Iraq war buildup. There's been multiple discussions, I think, about carrier groups and air
17:43buildup in different bases in Saudi Arabia all over the place.
17:47And that's all true. Now, hundreds of targets are hit with explosions reported across Iran.
17:55Civilian sites were allegedly struck.
17:58The one most dramatic one that Iranian TV is suggesting was there was a school
18:04that was hit. And that school, originally it was 80 kids, then it moved to
18:12114 kids. And then now the latest I saw was 148 kids that were killed
18:19in this strike. Again, everything you see online, you have to really make sure.
18:29This one right here is saying at least 153 dead.
18:33And who's that report from?
18:35Is that AP? This is, was it BBC?
18:40BBC. Yeah, BBC. I wanted, Al Jazeera was where I first saw it.
18:44And then I looked for a BBC site and they're, uh, uh, uh, confirming it
18:49as well too. Again, for all of you who say, well, nothing's true on Al
18:54Jazeera. That's not real. That's not reality.
18:57Do they manipulate their news?
18:59Yeah. Just like Fox, just like MSNBC, just like everybody else.
19:03But when you have the videos of it, uh, and there's timestamps and you have
19:08multiple videos, that's where I tend to bleed my eyes.
19:11We do know something was there has been multiple, uh, videos of kids and body
19:16bags all banged up. There was a gentleman with a leg that he was, uh,
19:20showed. So, um, obviously now there's more, uh, attacks.
19:25Iran has then launched its retaliatory strikes.
19:29Um, uh, so right now, uh, the, the, what I'm getting as I'm trying to
19:34consolidate all this, uh, us central command had put out a post today, basically saying
19:41a lot of what the Iranian regime was saying was false.
19:45The biggest one was that one of the aircraft carriers was struck.
19:49Um, and that turns out that was not true.
19:53Um, but here's some of the list of what I was able to see.
19:57All right. 27 U S bases in the Middle East, uh, in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait,
20:04UAE, Jordan, Saudi Arabia were struck in Israel.
20:08Cities like Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, um, were struck.
20:11All right. Ships and ports, uh, the, uh, Jabal Ali and Dubai oil tankers.
20:17Um, uh, apparently this has mobilized some Iranian proxies in Yemen, Iraq.
20:23Um, they said they were closed the Straits of Hormuz, uh, which I'll talk about
20:28the economic impact there. Um, halting oil shipments and trapping 170 vessels.
20:36Um, um, now six casualties, uh, the U S has reported now that they have
20:42had multiple casualties. Three U S troops have been killed.
20:47Uh, the first in the conflict, five seriously wounded, uh, there say that nine people
20:53have been killed in Israel, uh, 201 dead and 400 and 747 injured in Iran,
21:00uh, uh, deaths in the Gulfs, uh, there and some of the other places in
21:04Bahrain and some of the others.
21:05Uh, now, Jordan, if you could show some of the impacts, uh, in those videos,
21:10I sent you, uh, uh, multiple hotels, uh, were struck, um, overseas.
21:19Um, that gentleman right there from CNN is, is talking about strikes in Iran.
21:24Uh, and you can see some of the damage in the background.
21:28There's another, the Burj and, and, uh, Dubai was, uh, struck.
21:35Um, you'll be able to see that, uh, there was another massive explosion, I think.
21:40And, uh, there you go.
21:41There's the Burj. You can see the bottom portion of it, uh, on fire.
21:45Um, there was, uh, I, Now, There was another strike that took place near the
21:51tallest building, what is that, the Burj Khalif.
21:58Then there was a bunch of other strikes on civilian areas as well, too.
22:04That one right there, where does it say that one was from, Jordan?
22:08This is in Bahrain. Yep.
22:10All right, so you can see the strike in Bahrain on an apartment complex.
22:14So it would appear that Iran is sending, you know, they're doing limited strikes back,
22:24and they're attacking military installations, civilian sites, city centers in Tel Aviv, Jerusalem.
22:34So, you know. G'day, it's Adam Liao.
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22:52The challenge now is really to try and understand, right, what is this going to
23:01do? What is this going to do to the region?
23:03What is the outcome? Now, I sent you, there's a video of Bibi Netanyahu basically
23:12talking to the Israeli people, talking to the world, really.
23:17And in his thoughts, he is expressing, hey, listen, people of Iran, we've freed you
23:26from the disastrous, treacherous, terrorist Ayatollah Khomeini.
23:32And now he's trying to influence, I think, through whatever work they're doing on the
23:40ground in Iran to have the people rise up.
23:45Now, that rise up is not taking place.
23:49Jordi, if you could show the video of the large group, I'm not sure which
23:58country it is or which city in Iran, but there's a large group of people
24:03out there that are responding accordingly and are protesting the strikes.
24:11Now, that's not a small group of people who are basically saying, hey, we stand
24:18with the regime, we stand with our Islamic leadership, we stand with the IRGC, and
24:27that's significant. Now, there are other reports of people cheering in the streets in different
24:34countries in Europe and different places around the world.
24:37They even showed some video of, in Iran itself, people reacting, and probably those who
24:43were protesting a few months ago, to say.
24:47But again, Iran is a country of 94 million people, right?
24:52This is not the same as Iraq.
24:55It's certainly not the same as Afghanistan.
24:58This is a culture and a region that it's like the longest continuous civilization on
25:07the planet in terms of the Persians and their devotion to Islam.
25:13So to imagine that somehow, some way, just miraculously, there's going to be this phenomenal
25:22uprising, the overthrowing of the government.
25:25And that's going to be great, and everything's going to work out hunky -dory, and
25:30within the next six months, we're going to have democracy in Iran.
25:34I just don't see how that's possible, but I'll talk again at the end.
25:37All right, I've got a video here of a CIA case, a long -term CIA
25:43guy, case officer, Kerkow. He goes around, he's been on a lot of the podcasts
25:49out there, and in this interview, he's talking about a gentleman who is actually the
25:56son of the former Shah.
25:58And what they want to do, and I think this is being led by people
26:04in our government, certain groups in our government, within Trump's circle, and definitely by the
26:09Israelis, that this is the guy who should then go in and take over.
26:14So if you would, just listen to Kerkow and his explanation here.
26:18Now, Reza Pahlavi is the son of the Shah of Iran who was thrown out
26:27of Iran in early 1979, February of 1979, came into exile briefly in the United
26:34States. That led to the Iran hostage crisis.
26:37Then we forced him out to the Bahamas, and then to Panama, and then to
26:41Egypt, and he died in Egypt.
26:43Reza Pahlavi is the son.
26:45He was a young guy when this happened.
26:47He was, you know, a teenager.
26:50Well, now he's in his 60s, and he's never been to Iran since the 1970s.
26:57He's also something of a playboy in the Washington area.
27:01He's not a player in Iranian exile circles, but he seems to have a whole
27:06lot of money. Well, over the last couple of weeks, several things have happened.
27:11Number one, the Israeli government spilled the beans, and they admitted...
27:15that they have been financing him.
27:17So is he a Mossad asset?
27:19You bet he's a Mossad asset.
27:21OK, Mossad is saying it.
27:23All right. You know, I think when you think when you listen to him talk,
27:27obviously, this is a guy that supposedly was in the in the know.
27:30He had served in the agency for a long time.
27:34But again, right. We always want to take it with a grain of salt.
27:37I have not seen the the the sources that he was talking about is that
27:41the that Israel has come out and say they were helping fund this guy's lifestyle
27:46or anything like that. But it would make sense.
27:48Right. It would make sense that if you do have a guy that you have
27:53been financially supporting and controlling, if you could put him in the government of Iran,
27:58that would be very beneficial to you.
28:02So who's going to take over and why?
28:05Again, I talked about it a little bit in the beginning.
28:07And I and I think, you know, again, there are just the hierarchy of the
28:13food chain of who wants to rise in the power of Iran is no short.
28:16There's no shortage of people.
28:18Just like in the United States, man, everybody's jockeying for position at all times in
28:24every way to see how one catastrophe of peace or chaos can leverage them to
28:29move up the food chain.
28:30Well, guess what? Chaos is the greatest opportunity to gain power because when things are
28:35nuts. So that's what's taking place.
28:38All right. You know, as I sat back and I and I what I wanted
28:43to be able to do.
28:45And this goes back to, you know, growing up with my dad, who's the you
28:49know, the you know, five decades of lawyer in him and influence on me.
28:55One thing he always has said, David, when you're unsure, write out a pros and
28:58cons list. And so that's what I've tried to do.
29:02Right. And what are the pros and cons of the U .S.
29:07Israel strikes on Iran? OK, the great pro right now for us in particular is
29:15it establishes it's a continuation that establishes us as one of the true world superpowers.
29:23Right. It's the F .A .F .O.
29:27style of diplomacy that that seems to be at the core of the Trump administration
29:32and how we want to wield that power.
29:35Right. Very overt, limited strikes that change the course of power, the power hierarchy in
29:42different places. And and then basically take a step back, see what happens.
29:48Strike, take a step back, see what happens.
29:50Strike, take a step. Now, this pretty much for any other country in the world
29:56other than Russia and China has got to be a pretty destabilizing reality.
30:01Right. In particular for Iran right now, they're they're they're taking the biggest heavies.
30:06But we're also seeing, you know, a restructure of power in Central South America all
30:11over the place. So I think in terms of the pros, it continues to establish
30:16it continues to put people on their back heels, our political allies, our political enemies.
30:23No shit. People are afraid of Donald J.
30:26Trump. Right. This guy will is not hesitant to use the world's leading military powers
30:33at any drop or intelligence powers at the at the drop of a hat.
30:37Right. And it's not a drop of a hat.
30:38That's an overestimation. These are the result of a long term developing strategy.
30:44I think that just morphs from one political party to the next and how it
30:50takes place. I mean, pretty much everybody's trying to figure out how to deal with
30:53Iran for very long periods of time, in particular since 79.
30:59All right. So the other big thing I think it benefits for the pros are
31:06it really degrades Iran's Iran's influence in the region in terms of their proxies with
31:12Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis. It really, I think, especially now that they're attacking other Gulf
31:20states, it can kind of drive these Gulf states into a greater symbiotic relationship that
31:29says basically, hey, we don't like Iran.
31:33We don't like their what they're doing.
31:34This is great for us.
31:35And that can consolidate our ability to utilize their bases in order to launch continued
31:42strikes. The other is that I saw just recently the prime minister of Germany come
31:47out and basically say, hey, Tehran, stop doing what you're doing.
31:52So as we've noted over the last several months, the European Union has pretty been
31:57anti -Trump at a high level.
31:59And so the ability to see the reality of seeing the German chancellor come out
32:05and say, hey, Tehran, stop what you're doing.
32:08It lets me know, hey, man, this is a different game.
32:11This is a different guy.
32:12We got to kind of do our loose support of it.
32:15Now, Keir Starmer's response was was interesting.
32:18He basically was saying, hey, we need to stop a loss of life.
32:20This needs to end quickly.
32:22And if I had, you know, 40 million Muslims in my country, I think I'd
32:28say something along those lines, too.
32:30I don't think it's 40 million there, but it's certainly 40 million in Europe for
32:33sure. Look up how many Muslims are in England right there.
32:37I saw this stat the other day.
32:38All right. The other, you know, is it definitely.
32:43affects in a positive way Israel.
32:46With Israel, Israel's desire to want to have total control over the global, of the
32:54regional hegemony, I think it definitely puts Israel in the driver's seat.
32:59You got that number, what is it?
33:01According to the most recent official census data from 2020, oh, this is from 2021,
33:05this is probably more, about 3 .8 million people in England identify as Muslim, which
33:10is roughly 6 .7 % of England's population.
33:14So I'm guessing you got to hit, what, 10 by now?
33:17Yeah, somewhere around then. When was those dates?
33:2021, 2021. Yeah, 2021. Yeah, and so they had a massive flood in the last
33:25four years for sure. So you go 10 in England, 10 in France, you know,
33:30you add those, it's like 40 million Muslims in the European Union, which could cause,
33:35have profound impacts. So, you know, it's interesting to see.
33:39All right. And so Israel will definitely have a greater leverage, if you will, in
33:48the region as a result of impeding Iran's military capabilities and in particular nuclear capabilities.
33:58We definitely, in a nuclear weapon, Iran is not a good thing.
34:04And again, let me repeat that again.
34:05I am not a fan of Iran having a nuclear weapons.
34:09I'm not a fan of really anybody other than the major powers having them.
34:14But again, you know, it's nuclear power is inevitable.
34:20It's going to continue to come, it's going to continue to grow, and it's going
34:22to continue to be a problem.
34:23All right. What were the cons?
34:26All right. For me, the greatest cons to this is the destabilization of Iran.
34:32Again, as I said, it's 90 million plus people.
34:35These are people that are deeply Persian.
34:38They're deeply loyal to each other, their regions.
34:41And so a breakdown of that region in a civil war or even to intensify
34:50their desire to go support whatever emerges out of what's taking place.
34:58I think for you to believe that there's more people in Iran that support this
35:04toppling the regime than do, I don't think you're being honest with yourself.
35:10I've never seen that. I know Patrick, David is saying that going on TV, like,
35:17you know, really hammering this home that 80 % of the Iranian people don't want
35:23a Supreme Ayatollah. They want to get rid of it.
35:27I don't know where he comes up with that number.
35:30I don't know why. But again, he is Iranian.
35:33They left Iran back in the day.
35:35So, you know, maybe he's got inside track, maybe done.
35:39But 80 % is a high number.
35:41That's seems kind of fishy like what they told us about Iraq as well, too.
35:46As soon as we get rid of Saddam, the whole country will, you know, rise
35:50up in support of democracy, whatever the fuck turned out there.
35:54Right. And this, again, is a bigger context for me in particular as the con.
36:00We've done this regime change that I was a part of for the last, you
36:06know, 20 plus years. And what were the results of all these things?
36:12Now, I think we're going to, Jordy and I were talking about doing a show
36:16on the aftermath of regime change taking place, you know, maybe the last 60 or
36:2170 years, and what the outcomes, how they affected everybody.
36:25Because we 100 % know that Iraq and Afghanistan were not a positive net gain
36:32for the United States of America.
36:35Certainly it was for, you know, obviously the military industrial complex with $8 trillion spent.
36:45Certainly I think broke regional groups and certain political groups in the region benefited from
36:52the destabilization of those countries for sure.
36:55But it did not benefit me, my friends, their families, and our budget crisis.
37:02All right. And you got to imagine too, that these people who are surviving, that
37:08are in these, the IRGC, that are part of this Islamic fanaticism, they're not just
37:16going to be all of a sudden like, oh, it's over.
37:19We need to convert or conform.
37:21We need to get in line.
37:23I think what you have is you potentially have a much worse reaction than Bin
37:30Laden and the Sunni reaction.
37:34I think Persians are much more diversified in their intelligence networks around the world.
37:39I think there's many more sleeper cells all over the world in Europe and the
37:45United States for sure. In fact, just yesterday, tragically in Austin, Texas, if you could
37:54pull up that video for me there, Jordy, in Austin, a beer, a famous bar
38:01and beer garden was shot up by a person.
38:14Okay. And then there's another video I sent you of, of some woman doing CPR
38:21in the bar. Okay. So there you see, you know, the effects, there were three
38:40people killed and 14 that were injured.
38:43And the early reports is this guy was an Islamist of some kind.
38:48We don't know much about his background quite yet.
38:52By the time you see this, there'll be a ton of information.
38:55There's a report he had a Quran.
38:56He was wearing a sweatshirt for Allah, you know, that this guy.
39:01So again, you know, that's, is it a Hezbollah cell?
39:07Is it a Hamas cell?
39:08We don't know. But what we do know is someone was so angered by the
39:13strikes that he went up to a bar and he started shooting up the place.
39:17Now, if you're familiar with Sarah Adams, maybe we'll have her on back here in
39:22the next week or two to discuss all this.
39:24You know, she's been predicting these types of attacks.
39:27Now, is this the size of an October 7th attack?
39:30She's talking, no, this seems like a gut reaction to this.
39:32But again, this is what we're going to start to face.
39:36And this is going to take place in a lot of different places.
39:38So I think that's the epitome of, of the, the cons, right?
39:42The power vacuum, the vengeance, the destabilization of the region.
39:46And then, you know, what, who takes over and how radical will they be in
39:51the future? All right. Shout out to all the Aussie businesses doing the nine to
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40:23Global economic stability versus interim stability.
40:29You know, I think there's an initial surge of exporters with oil, but obviously there's
40:35also reports that there's going to be a 20 % increase in oil.
40:40We're not really sure what's going to take place.
40:42We did see that they're trying to shut down the Straits of Hormuz.
40:46So it's yet to be seen how that will, that will, if oil goes up
40:5020%, this is Trump's crowning thing in his economic ability besides the, you know, 55,
40:5750 ,000 stock market or, you know, the markets are - The Dow is 50
41:02,000. The Dow is 50 ,000.
41:03So, you know, that could really affect the economic impact on Americans as well as
41:10making them more in danger.
41:12Stock markets have seemed to be affected by this.
41:16We'll see as international trade opens up early this morning, and what, what it looks
41:22like next week. All right.
41:24The other aspect of this is, in my opinion, is really that it, it's going
41:28to essentially really have a negative impact on the UN Security Council.
41:33And once again, now, if you believe Trump, Trump has essentially pulled out of all
41:39the climate accords, the WHO, he's talked about pulling out of NATO.
41:45You know, this, the UN Security Council is already coming out and saying, this is
41:50not great. We need to do this.
41:55You know, this, they, they talk about the exposure of hypocrisies, right?
41:59Debates reveal inconsistencies, condemning UN's, the US's actions, but not Iran's.
42:06You know, and then there's also the interesting reality that if this is really about
42:11nuclear power, does the UN Security Council come back and say, all right, well, now
42:16we need Israel to have their, to fully disclose their nuclear program, if this is
42:22about nuclear instability in the region, right?
42:25And how's that going to affect them?
42:27Obviously, it's going to be interesting to see how China reacts, Russia reacts, some of
42:31these other groups in the UN Security Council, and what takes place.
42:35Because if, in my opinion, I think this is going to give Trump the perfect
42:38opportunity to be like, hey, UN right here, we're out, we're not going to listen
42:43to you or not. And when you look at the UN and some of the
42:46things that have come down, it's really, seems kind of ineffectual as it is anyways.
42:51All right. The cons, another big con about this geopolitically, this is obviously going to,
42:57you know, piss Russia and China off, in particular China.
43:00There's reports that they get about 80 % of their petroleum from Iran.
43:04So that's going to have an impact on them.
43:08You know, so it'll be interesting to see what takes place.
43:12Now, the big ones, these are the big ones.
43:14What are the domestic ramifications for our political system with Donald J.
43:21Trump and his troops? Now, obviously, if you're on X, like I am, there's been
43:28this massive reaching out, right?
43:31Good, get rid of this terrible regime.
43:33You know, they were, they wanted to kill Americans.
43:36They chanted death to America.
43:37They were actively in country.
43:38They wanted to, if you listen to Mark Levine, he basically the other day was
43:43saying they have nuclear tipped intercontinental blisters that are going to strike America.
43:47I don't know how accurate that is, but that's what he's saying.
43:50And he has some pretty good inside baseball because he's, you know, we saw him
43:54recently next to Trump on a multitude of levels.
43:58All right. The other problem with this is I think the biggest political reaction on
44:05the other side is Trump promised no new wars.
44:08And although this doesn't seem like a war, but a more of a strategic conflict,
44:12the outcry of no new wars was profound.
44:18You know, there's a lot of people saying that Israel is running our foreign policy.
44:23I don't believe that. I think Trump knows what he's trying to do in terms
44:28of his overall power on this and what his outcomes.
44:32But obviously, there's definitely influence in some capacity with Israel.
44:37Otherwise, you know, he wouldn't potentially justify the split of his base, which really got
44:44on board. Now, a lot of people are saying, screw all those people who are
44:47crying wolf because they were libertarians.
44:50They were, you know, blue dog Democrats that were sick of the censorship and the
44:55transgender ideology. So they weren't really with us anyways.
44:58And then all these other people right here of this group, like they're actually Nazis
45:04and crazies and they're not a part of us.
45:06They're, you know, they're, you know, whether it's Tucker or MTG or Thomas Massey, Rand
45:11Paul, whatever it is, they are not true MAGA people.
45:15And we should, you know, we should exile them as it is.
45:18Well, those people have a lot of influence in the MAGA base.
45:21They really do. They were there with Trump from the beginning.
45:24Tucker Carlson campaigned with him.
45:26So if you think that his audience is going to just bend over and get
45:32on board with a new engagement in Iran, then you're solely mistaken.
45:38You know, the other thing that we saw today is we've seen a lot of
45:42people, Representative Mullins, or I think he's at the UN now, and a lot of
45:47senators and congressmen who are coming out and saying, you know, hey, we grieve for
45:53the families of those killed overseas.
45:56We support you. And, you know, you even have the let's all rally behind our
46:00dead service members. But again, that's a slippery slope.
46:05I'm telling you, is it necessary that, you know, I think what it all kind
46:11of falls back to is what is what is the plan and is the plan
46:16going to benefit stability in the region?
46:19Is the plan going to benefit stability for us politically?
46:24Is the is the the the the targeting?
46:27Is it going to increase our security profile for Americans around the world and at
46:34home? Is it going to increase the security for our bases around the world?
46:37Is it going to increase the security for those young men and women that are
46:42on those ships and in those planes and and all those engagements?
46:46And the reality is, no, it doesn't.
46:50You can talk to you till you're blue in the face that this is a
46:54long term positive reaction to get rid of the Ayatollah Khomeini and take out the
47:00regime. And you can keep telling yourself.
47:02But the same two things can be true, which is, yeah, it might be good
47:07to knock down their ability to get nuclear weapons.
47:10But it's also going to enrage and create more people that hate the United States
47:17and more people that want to attack our way of life.
47:20That's the way it is.
47:22Just like you look at Iraq.
47:23Did did Iraq get more in terms of in line for us in America?
47:28Did Afghanistan is Afghanistan with us?
47:32Hell no, they're in a war with Pakistan right now.
47:35And speaking of that, the other residual effects we've already seen, there were attacks in
47:41Pakistan and the consulates and a couple of the consulates.
47:44There were attacks in Iraq against the consulates, too.
47:48So if you think like it's just going to go away and there aren't people,
47:52State Department personnel, intelligence personnel, families that live out in town and in housing.
47:58If you don't think that all of them are under heightened threat to be killed,
48:03captured, beheaded on television as a result of this, then you're naive and you're not
48:08being honest with yourself. And so what I want to hear is a distinct strategic
48:13reality that they believe is going to take place after this.
48:17But again, from what I've witnessed in my own obsession with geopolitics for the last
48:2530 years and my own active participation in those geopolitics and the teams, Blackwater and
48:33the agency, and then the impact that it's had on my dead friends, their families,
48:40their wives, their children, the track record is not great.
48:44So I'm praying we got a great plan.
48:47I'm praying the president understands how to handle this in the next coming weeks and
48:52days. I'm praying it doesn't escalate into a full scale major war.
48:57But that's yet to be seen.
48:59All right. So if you enjoyed this, please like, share, leave a comment, share it
49:05with your friends, share it all.
49:06online. Check out us on X and TikTok and Instagram.
49:11We're there at the David Rutherford Show on X.
49:14It's at the Rutherford Show.
49:15Follow me. I've been posting a lot on X at Team Frog Logic, on the
49:20gram at Team Frog Logic.
49:23And go follow us and share it with other people.
49:27Again, our main objective for you, our mission is to contextualize the massive amount of
49:32information and complexity of this situation so that you can have a better understanding to
49:37conjure up an opinion that's built on the totality of the situation and not just
49:44on your favorite shit poster on X.
49:47All right. Now, before we check out, I just want to, some great memes are
49:51coming out of this. The first one I want to show is phenomenal.
49:55It's the president and his new band.
49:58Pull that up Forrest Geordi.
50:00I saw this and I literally fell out of my chair.
50:02Okay. Play this sucker for us.
50:04You got to have a little bit of humor in times like this.
50:08Absolutely. Go ahead. All right.
50:31All right. All right. So if you can, if you can't laugh at that, man,
50:35you, you got no sense of humor.
50:37Obviously in dark times, we need dark humor to lift us up.
50:40All right. All right. The other one is, this is awesome.
50:43And God bless the J .D.
50:44Vance memes are some of my favorite.
50:46So pull up this little AI clip right here that someone produced of, of, of
50:51J .D. This is phenomenal too.
50:57Dude. Holy cow, dude. He's ready.
51:14The music too is so perfect.
51:17Again, you know, a little dark humor with the magnitude of craziness that's going on
51:22in the world. And, uh, you know, just, uh, at the end, you know, just
51:27pray, I guess is the best thing you can do.
51:30Hope we can get out of this.
51:31Hope it doesn't escalate. These are really weird, bizarre times.
51:34There's a lot of kinetic shit going on, but again, just try and, you know,
51:38take that deep breath in.
51:41Nice, slow, pursed out and realize that history itself is always more complicated than it
51:47seems. Uh, typically, uh, we hope, uh, uh, steady minds will make better decisions and
51:54we can end this conflict and get back to some relative, I guess I always
51:58have to say relative, relative peace and stability in the world.
52:02But, uh, I'm not going to hold my breath too long on that exhale.
52:07All right, everybody. Thank you so much.
52:09God bless you. God bless your families and thank Christ.
52:12Uh, and thank you all for paying attention to the show.
52:14Hoo -yah. G'day, it's Brittany Saunders.
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