The Manosphere Report

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1:02Complete disclosures available at public .com slash disclosures.

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3:02Savings vary. Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Gerdusky.

3:08Thank you all for being here.

3:10I want to say happy St.

3:12Patrick's Day. I'm recording this the day before.

3:14So it is St. Patrick's Day as of recording of this.

3:17And I want to wish everyone who is of Irish ancestry, or yeah, who has

3:22Irish ancestry, I meant to say, who has Irish ancestry like myself, a very happy

3:27St. Patrick's Day. I hope you all celebrate being Irish, really being Irish, which apparently

3:31the president of Ireland and the prime minister of Ireland do not share my joy

3:36of the history of the Celtic people.

3:39I don't know if anyone saw it, but Michael Martin, the prime minister of Ireland,

3:44was in Washington on St.

3:46Patrick's Day, attended an event in the morning with Vice President Vance.

3:51There was a prayer, President Vance blessed himself, Michael Martin didn't, because the Irish politicians

3:56are allergic to being Catholic or having Catholic ancestry and lineage to them.

4:01Then sat with President Trump and noted how Ireland has just been thriving because of

4:06mass immigration. One in four people living in Ireland now is an immigrant.

4:10They've opened the floodgates across the country to Ireland and to the Middle East, and

4:14it's doing wonders for petty theft and for housing prices.

4:18And, you know, there's Irish citizens, rogue Irish citizens burning down asylum hotels.

4:24He mentions none of that.

4:25He says it's thriving, the economy is thriving.

4:28And Trump, to his credit, actually did push back and said a lot of problems

4:32are coming with it. And then over in Ireland, you had the new Irish president,

4:36Catherine Connolly, who wore black, refused to call St.

4:40Patrick. St. Patrick, she called him Patrick as if she was his drinking buddy, and

4:45then talked about how it's really a day about migration.

4:48For those who don't know the history of St.

4:50Patrick, he was a slave.

4:52He wasn't a migrant. It is an insult to call a...

4:56He was a slave. I mean, there was no migration.

4:59There was no passport he went there.

5:01He was forcibly brought to Ireland, but did great things with his time there.

5:06And it's absolutely inferior. The Irish politicians who govern that country are embarrassments.

5:14I know I have a few Irish listeners.

5:15I have relatives who live in County Cork.

5:17I have relatives who live in Belfast.

5:20It's an embarrassment. It's the most embarrassing politician.

5:24of any country in Europe.

5:27And England has Keir Starmer.

5:28That just goes to show how badly Ireland has fallen on its times.

5:33And Ireland is the last country in all of Europe, Western Europe especially, not to

5:39have an effective populist party pushing back on immigration.

5:42I know there's the Independence Ireland Party, but they're very small.

5:46They're very minor. They're trying to get it together.

5:48They only have, I think, three seats in their parliament.

5:51Not enough to have any kind of effective governing.

5:54And the three major parties all believe in the same thing, which is the erasure

5:58of Irish history, of Irish people and Irish culture.

6:01Absolutely horrifying, especially on a day to celebrate the resilience of the Irish people and

6:10all that Ireland gave the world.

6:13I mean, it's absolutely astonishing.

6:15And you know, it's so funny.

6:16There is an app on, I see the ads on Instagram all the time.

6:20It's a history app. I don't know the name of it, but they one day

6:23talked about the 200 ,000 Irish orphans that were shipped to America and used basically

6:28as slave labor and Irish slavery, which is never talked about in this own country

6:33and the endurance of the Irish people to survive despite famines and really horrific treatment.

6:39And now their politicians are willing to wipe that all the way in the name

6:44of diversity. They have traded hatred for the English for hatred for themselves.

6:48And to quote a short little poem by Patrick Pierce, I am come of the

6:53seed of the people, the people of that sorrow that have no treasure but hope,

6:58no riches laid a memory of an ancient glory.

7:01My mother bore me into bondage and bondage my mother was born.

7:04I come of the seed of the people, the people that sorrow.

7:07There is no reason Irish people to have any sense of guilt whatsoever or to

7:13destroy their heritage and their country by flooding it with migrants from across the world.

7:19Ireland needs, you know, a place for the Irish.

7:23It is what it is.

7:24Anyway, I'm not an Irish citizen.

7:27I don't know why I care so much.

7:28I think it's because the Irish heritage and I have relatives named Seamus.

7:33So, I mean, you get as Irish as it gets.

7:36And just to see that there's our collective ancestry being washed away.

7:42Okay, enough about Ireland. Let's talk about America.

7:47I know what you're all thinking right now.

7:50You're all thinking, Ryan, you were right again.

7:54How'd you know? How'd you do it?

7:55And you're probably all saying, what are you talking about?

7:58So, I said a month ago on this podcast that Hakeem Jeffries is going to

8:04quickly wake up and realize that if he has a house majority in January, it

8:09will be the house that Bernie Sanders built.

8:12Bernie Sanders and progressive activists who love Bernie have been winning primaries across the country.

8:18They are changing the face of the Democratic Party.

8:21And a lot of them, not big fans of Hakeem Jeffries.

8:25And they're increasingly saying they're unsure if they're going to support him for House Speaker.

8:32Axios, that's what I said a month ago.

8:34Now, Axios is out with a new report that had a number of Democratic candidates

8:37coming forward and saying they are unsure who the next speaker will be, that they're

8:42not gung -ho for Hakeem.

8:44This is according to Axios.

8:45Why it matters, it is a stark reversal from Jeffries' virtual untouchable standing in the

8:51Democratic Party just a few years ago, and a sign that his path to speaker

8:54may be rockier than previously thought.

8:57Jeffries and his allies maintain there is not a remotely worried about a mass defection,

9:01pointing out that even the minority, he has endured 20 speaker ballots and hasn't lost

9:07a Democratic vote. But this crop of freshmen may provide the first shank in here

9:11to for impenetrable armor with a block of genuinely viable candidates, making clear that voting

9:17for Jeffries as speaker is not a given if the Democrats take the House.

9:21As of now, there are 80 candidates running for Congress this year who say they

9:27are not committed to backing Jeffries.

9:29That is not a small number, especially if Democrats find themselves in the same place

9:34that Kevin McCarthy did a couple of years ago.

9:37You have a majority. It's not a huge majority.

9:39What do you do? A couple of defections means you have to concede a lot

9:44of things to them. It means you're not guaranteed to get the speakership.

9:49And in the era of Trump 2 .0, term 2 .0, there is a lot

9:55of belief among ranked and five, not ranked and five, but activist Democrats.

9:59The Democratic Party is not doing enough to fight the orange man, right?

10:04That they, that the Democrats have gone along with funding the government, that they've gone

10:09along with other things that they should have been doing more.

10:12Whatever it is more, I don't know.

10:13I think some Democrat activists would have wanted the Democrats to shut down the government

10:17of day one. They possibly could have and kept the government shut down all four

10:20years. Um, and Jeffries hasn't got along with that because being leader means you have

10:26to govern responsibly. Um, so no surprise that he didn't do that.

10:30What Jeffries has going for him is the same thing that McCarthy had going for

10:35him is that there's no central opposition.

10:38Um, Pelosi faced opposition a few times while she was speaker, but there was a

10:43person running against her. There was a guy running against her and saying, I'm going

10:47to be the opposition. They always lost, but there was someone to rally troops against

10:51Pelosi. There is no one rallying troops against Jeffrey.

10:57There's no one rallying troops against McCarthy.

10:59They may be someone saying, I don't want him to be in power, but there's

11:03no one saying vote for me instead, which is important.

11:06Matt Gaetz didn't want McCarthy, but they didn't find a consensus candidate.

11:09It wasn't like Gaetz himself was being presented as a choice for Speaker.

11:14There was nobody. It was either McCarthy or nobody.

11:18And they're kind of having the same situation with the Democratic Party right now.

11:21They don't have a singular person offering a progressive vision who could raise money because

11:26that's a big part of the job is who can raise money.

11:31And the truth is you can't beat somebody with nobody.

11:33Unless AOC or someone like that who has the belief, the support, the troops, the

11:39money, I can't believe money is very important for the Speaker.

11:44You're not going to find somebody going to break Hakeem Jeffries' lock on the Democratic

11:50Party. So Hakeem is safe right now, but things are dicey.

11:53And if they don't get their way or they get blank or they cave one

11:57or two times and they have a small majority, it's going to be very, very

12:01dicey for Hakeem Jeffries going forward.

12:04Anyway, that's my little nod to my audience telling.

12:07I told you guys I was ahead of the curve.

12:09I knew what was happening.

12:10And I think this is going to be a long -term issue for Hakeem Jeffries

12:13and whoever governs the Democrats in the House.

12:15The Democrats are going to act a lot more like the Republicans in the House

12:18when it comes to being less orderly.

12:21Now, I want to talk about something else that people think is very far into

12:26the future, but it's actually only a few months away.

12:28And that is the 2028 presidential election.

12:31I know some of you are like, Ryan, that's four years away.

12:34No, it's not. The first candidates who will announce their run for the White House

12:39will happen within the next nine months.

12:42Basically, you could have a baby if you get pregnant today and you will have

12:47a Democrat running for president or a Republican running for president by the time that

12:52baby is born. It's not a long time left before we're entering into the 2028

12:57presidential cycle. And there's two things, there's two essential questions, which is one, is J

13:03.D. Vance inevitable on the Republican side?

13:06And who is the most likely candidate on the Democratic side?

13:09Let's go into the Republican side first.

13:12I get messages about J .D.

13:14literally every single week from somebody saying, you know, is the nomination process really over?

13:21What has he done to deserve the nomination?

13:23Is he ready to be president?

13:25Can we nominate someone else or is somebody else going to run?

13:29Let me answer the last question first.

13:32Is someone else going to run?

13:34Yes, other people are going to run.

13:36Ted Cruz is almost definitely running for president.

13:39You know, he believes that he's got some kind of compact with God where he

13:42ends up being president one day.

13:44He's almost destined. He's got this, you know, destined from Christ himself to be president

13:49of the United States. Side note, do you guys remember when he picked Carly Fiorini

13:54as his vice presidential candidate?

13:56And they kind of grasped hands and missed each other's hands at the rally.

13:59I don't know why that kind of flashed in my memory as I was recalling

14:04Ted Cruz running for president, but it did.

14:06I've also heard rumors that Brian Kemp, Governor of Georgia, is strongly considering a run.

14:11Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida, is considering a run.

14:14I've heard Josh Hawley, the senator from Missouri, is asking questions.

14:18Ram Paul says that he's exploring his options.

14:20He's a senator from Kentucky.

14:21Steve Bannon, I've heard for a while, wanted to run, but the Epstein stuff, the

14:27idea that he made this videotape with Epstein, not those kinds of tapes, but a

14:31different kind of tape with Epstein, and was interviewing him and never released the footage

14:35and could have been very complimentary for Epstein, possibly in the footage, whatever the case

14:40may be. I heard it's really hurt his potential of running.

14:45There's other people who want to run but don't really have a lane.

14:48Tulsi Gabbard, I heard, is interested but doesn't know if she has got a lane.

14:52RFK Jr. very much wants to make a run for something and doesn't know if

14:56he has a lane. And then there's the 900 -pound elephant in the room, which

15:00is Marco Rubio. Now, Rubio has been doing an exceptionally good job as Secretary of

15:07State, and everyone has taken notice, including the president.

15:10And it's clear that Rubio is having an effect on the president's thinking when it

15:15comes to foreign policy. According to several reports, President Trump has asked multiple people if

15:21he should endorse Vance or Rubio for president.

15:23And at least one report said that a lot of donors really do love Rubio.

15:27They love Rubio more. Also, I want to point out that Susie is very close

15:31to Rubio as well. Susie, the chief of staff.

15:33Now, polling on the 2028 presidential race is very, very difficult because there are multiple

15:40names that are being floated in these polls who are not running.

15:45Donald Trump Jr. is not running for president.

15:47There is no reason why a pollster is throwing his name on a poll because

15:51it changes the poll's outcome because he polls very, very high.

15:54He's the president's son. And it absolutely affects the way that these polls are coming

16:00out and the certainty of these polls.

16:03So other polls that just have the most likely contenders, Vance has a formidable 20

16:08to 30 point lead against Rubio, who is a distant second, and then DeSantis is

16:13in third, and he's just in the high single digits.

16:16In early swing states and polls, like in New Hampshire, Vance is more than 50

16:19percent. even Rubio is not even in double digits.

16:23Now, obviously, if Trump were to endorse Rubio over Vance, that would change things considerably.

16:29But I have a hard time seeing that happen.

16:32And here's the reason. Vance is doing fundraising for the 2026 midterms.

16:37Vance is creating these independent relationships with donors.

16:41Vance is also, while this campaign isn't up and running yet, it will escalate quickly

16:47after the midterms. And it will have a lot of the infrastructure from the Trump

16:512024 campaign on his side.

16:55And Rubio, I think that's why Rubio has firmly said, I'm not running.

16:59Vance is running. Now, if there's going to be some kind of upset where Rubio

17:04shocks everybody and announces, it has to be in the next six months.

17:08Because it's got to be, you have to get the jumpstart to create a parallel

17:12organization and kind of take over part of the Trump organization that I don't think

17:17that Vance would just give up on his own.

17:20So no, I don't think that Vance is inevitable.

17:22But if you were a betting man, and you're placing your house on the betting

17:26markets, you should bet on Vance.

17:29That's what my opinion. Now, on the Democratic side, there's so many people running, it

17:33is becoming a clown car.

17:34You have Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, Senator from New Jersey, Cory Booker.

17:38You have Pete Buttigieg. You have Rahm Emanuel, former White House chief of staff for

17:42President Obama and Mayor of Chicago.

17:44You have Josh Green, the governor of Hawaii.

17:46I had to look him up too.

17:47I didn't know who Josh Green was when I first read that he was considering

17:50running. Kamala Harris, the former Democratic nominee from 2024.

17:54Senator Mark Kelly from Arizona.

17:55Senator Ruben Gallego from Arizona.

17:58Congressman Roe Conner from California.

18:00Governor Gavin Newsom from California.

18:02Congressman Alexander Ocasio -Cortez from New York.

18:04Senator John Ossoff from Georgia.

18:06Governor J .P. Pritzker from Illinois.

18:08And Governor Josh Shapiro from Pennsylvania.

18:11Okay, that is the people who are running on the Democratic side so far.

18:17Those are the names being floated so far.

18:19Early polls at this far out without someone sitting in office really is about name

18:27ID. And obviously Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom have the highest name ID.

18:30They have the upper hand in these polls.

18:32But what is more important than the name recognition for the Democratic nomination is the

18:38calendar. No one is talking about this.

18:40See, the Democratic primaries has changed significantly.

18:44Where states like Iowa and New Hampshire, which used to go first, have been pushed

18:48aside from South Carolina. The Democratic Party says they're too white.

18:51And, you know, white people, if they get a voice in the Democratic Party, it's,

18:54you know, that's bad news.

18:55It can't have, can't let a white man from the Midwest have a voice in

18:58the Democratic Party. Absolutely not allowed.

19:00So they've moved to South Carolina, which is a majority black voting population for the

19:05Democratic primary. And that is the way that most of the Deep South still is.

19:10There's a, there's something like Florida.

19:11I don't think that like, it's like that anymore.

19:14Texas is not like that anymore.

19:15But most of the states in the South are still black majority Democratic voting base.

19:20And they favor candidates who are more establishment, who are more centrist, and they give

19:26the Democratic nomination. It is almost virtually impossible to win the Democratic nomination without the

19:32support of older black women in the Deep South.

19:35They nominated Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton.

19:39I mean, only I think John Kerry and only because John Kerry won all the

19:42states before the South. And so by that point, he was just kind of cleaning

19:46up. I think he lost, you know, I think he lost North and South Carolina,

19:49but he was the only one.

19:51And he was able to sweep basically everywhere else.

19:53He might have lost one other state to, to, I think maybe lost Oklahoma as

19:58well. But he, he basically swept the entire race very, very quickly.

20:02But he was once again, the only one.

20:06So you need the Deep South, you need old ladies, the black, black old ladies,

20:10Deep South, and who they support is who the likely Democratic nominee eventually will be.

20:16They're not going to support a Pete Buttigieg.

20:18They're not going to vote for a gay candidate.

20:19They're not going to support a radical left winger.

20:22They're not going to support a Bernie Sanders.

20:24They probably will not support an AOC.

20:27So that's who you have to keep an eye out for.

20:29If you're going to stare across polls, across tabs and polls, that's who you want

20:34to look at. How are black voters in the South considering who are they voting

20:38for? Right now, they really do like Kamala Harris still, because she was the nominee.

20:43She's a black woman. We'll see if they find favor or love with anybody else.

20:48But right now, according to the most recent poll, there's been no polls in South

20:51Carolina, but according to the most recent nationwide polls, 36 % of black voters say

20:56Kamala Harris. And if she holds true that she could absolutely be the nominee again.

21:00With me to discuss all things 2028 is the great journalist, Mark Halperin.

21:04That's coming up next. Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for

21:10those who take it seriously.

21:12On Public, you can build a multi -asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto, and

21:16now generated assets, which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with

21:21AI. It all starts with your prompt from renewable energy companies with high free cashflow

21:25to semiconductor suppliers, growing revenue over 20 % year over year.

21:29You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work.

21:32It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one -of -a -kind index, and lets you

21:35backtest it against the S &P 500.

21:37Then you can invest in a few clicks.

21:39Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis,

21:45not someone else's. Go to public .com.

21:47and earn an uncapped 1 % bonus when you transfer your portfolio.

21:51That's public .com slash podcast.

21:53Paid for by Public Investing.

21:54Brokered services by Open to the Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA, and SIPC.

21:57Advisory services by Public Advisors, LLC, SEC Registered Advisor.

22:00Generated assets is an interactive analysis tool.

22:01Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice.

22:04Complete disclosures available at public .com slash disclosures.

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24:00The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.

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24:04AARP and its affiliates are not insurers.

24:06Savings vary. With me to discuss the 2020 election is legendary journalist Mark Halperin of

24:13Next Up with Mark Halperin and Two -Way Fame.

24:17Thank you so much for coming on, Mark.

24:19Honored to be here, sir.

24:20Thank you for including me.

24:20So, Mark, the question I get all the time and I ask literally once a

24:24week is, is J .D.

24:26Vance inevitable? What is your opinion on that?

24:29I thought he was and now I don't.

24:32I think that three things have happened that make him short of inevitable.

24:36He's still the base case.

24:38I think still the most likely outcome, probably still by far, is that he decides

24:43to run the president, endorses him, and he's the nominee by consensus and probably runs

24:47with Marco Rubio. But three things have happened.

24:50First of all, the rise of Rubio, just the groundswell of interest in him and

24:54support of him and the belief amongst many stakeholders that Rubio would be a better

24:59nominee is pretty big. So, that's number one.

25:04Number two, Vance has rubbed some people the wrong way in his public appearances and

25:08his private meetings with donors.

25:10He's just went from a run of nine months or so of extreme popularity and

25:15being extremely well -received to now some people having questions about his personality and about

25:21his failure to repudiate people like Tucker Carlson.

25:25So, some doubts about him.

25:26And then lastly, as it's become kind of a possibility that it won't be Vance,

25:32whether Ted Cruz runs or other people run, there's just a sentiment of he needs

25:37to earn this, that it wouldn't be in the party's interest and it wouldn't be

25:40right to simply hand him the nomination and that there should be whatever needs to

25:45happen to make it a competitive process needs to happen.

25:48So, those three things have combined to make me pull back from my view that

25:52it was a mortal lock for Vance.

25:54Well, I mean, Ted Cruz is going to run no matter what.

25:56Ted Cruz thinks that he's got a contract with Jesus Christ to be president one

25:59day. That is this, you know, this vision from above.

26:03I don't care who's running besides that.

26:05And there's other people who want to run.

26:06I know Ron DeSantis has made phone calls.

26:08I know that Brian Kemp has made phone calls.

26:10There are people who have that dream of the presidency hasn't lost upon them.

26:13But there is a belief among people in Vance camp that there shouldn't, that the

26:18vice president shouldn't even be on a debate stage with anybody else, that he should

26:21be running by himself. Is that, you think, the wrong opinion to make among Republican

26:26voters? Well, it's a long time before voters have a say in this.

26:31And I think, I still think that there's a chance Vance will decide with his

26:34young children not to run.

26:36I just wouldn't rule that out.

26:38But if he decides to run, I find it hard to believe that he wouldn't

26:41get the president's endorsement. And then the question is, is the RNC finance chair, which

26:46is a unique slot to be given to an incumbent vice president with presidential ambitions,

26:51as someone who still retains an extraordinary amount of goodwill within the party as the

26:56frontrunner in the polls, I think he'd win every element of the invisible primary well

27:00before any votes were cast.

27:03So, so, so that's what would lead him to get Trump's endorsement.

27:08And I think to largely clear the field, again, well before anybody voted to voters,

27:13to voters, eventually. if he refused to debate, if he didn't clear the field, would

27:18they care? Maybe. But I think the question will largely be answered before a vote

27:22is cast. Why is Trump asking about Rubio all of a sudden?

27:27Does Trump all of a sudden have a feeling like he's not as strong or

27:30that Rubio is so great?

27:33I'm an expert in politics and campaigns and government, not in psychology, but I'll do

27:39my best. I think he, you know, he loves central casting, you know, the concept

27:44of central casting. He loves people who do well on TV and he's fascinated by

27:48kind of anthropology, right? So I think he thinks it's interesting how often he hears

27:53from people at Mar -a -Lago and members of Congress and people, reporters who he

27:57talks to, ah, Rubio's kind of awesome.

27:59Isn't Rubio awesome? He thinks, well, that's interesting.

28:02Why are people talking so much about how awesome Rubio is?

28:04Then I think, you know, as much as he may want to anoint Vance eventually,

28:10you know, he likes competition.

28:12He likes to put scorpions in a bottle and, or, you know, go to the

28:15Bronx to a cockfight and see people hammer each other.

28:19Uh, and then, you know, again, he's a pretty sophisticated TV producer.

28:23He sees what I see, which is Vance has had some less than short -footed

28:28moments in public and Rubio has not of late.

28:32So probably all those things just make him want to make mischief.

28:35And he knows that even if he's, his thought is, uh, you know, if I'm

28:39right, that eventually he's going to endorse Vance, there's no cost to doing this now.

28:44And probably he sees an upside that Vance should have some competition because if he

28:47endorsed Vance right away, or if he only said nice things about Vance, I think

28:51he probably believes Vance would, uh, get to the general election without any sort of

28:54test. And as you know, often, um, uh, candidates who have rough nomination fights, uh,

29:01go into the general election, a lot more battle tested and, and, and ready for

29:05the fight than if they, if they cruise to the nomination.

29:08Also, he does create the situation where he really is a lame duck once there's

29:12a nominee to follow. Like it is a certain site, I, you know, uh, Steve

29:16Bannon once said if Trump could be the last president ever, that would be his

29:19dream. Like, because he really would never want that to, uh, to happen.

29:24And then, uh, and last part of this before we go on is, uh, you

29:27know, the Tucker Carlson correlation with Vance is what I hear about so often, particularly

29:32from Jewish friends of mine, Jewish political activists, Jewish donors.

29:36Uh, I think it is really actually haunting him with a certain segment of the

29:41population that can't be understated.

29:43I mean, it's, it's real, like it's not fake anymore.

29:46I believe things are fake until I've heard it a million times.

29:48I'm like, okay, maybe it's real, but I do believe it's real.

29:51Um, yeah, it's, it's, for them, it's a question of character and values.

29:56And I think for some of them, it's a question of competence.

29:59They just, they think it's a no brainer to distance from Tucker and, and it's

30:03not just Tucker, you know, those, those, uh, college Republicans who had the text chain

30:09where they, you know, made jokes about Hitler, um, some other people in MAGA, like

30:14the vice president's attitude is seems to be in kind of a, I would say

30:18almost childish way is to be like, ah, I'm not going to repudiate people just

30:23because people tell me to repudiate people without regard to, well, like, would you repudiate,

30:28you know, Osama bin Laden?

30:30Right. So, so, um, so I, I totally agree with you that I hear it

30:36all the time. And like I said, it's not just that the, it kind of

30:40rubs them the wrong way from a, from a, you know, like a, a, a

30:45political point of view. It really, they, they think it speaks to his values.

30:48And of course it plays into the doubts that a lot of people have had

30:51about him over the course of his time in public life that he went from

30:55saying Trump was the Republican party's Hitler to saying Trump was the greatest president of

30:59all time. And they just, some people seeing him a phony and a person without

31:03values and without a North star and the Tucker stuff plays into that for a

31:08lot of people, not just Jews, but a lot of Jews.

31:10Yeah, it is a lot.

31:11Yeah. Um, okay. So on the democratic side, Mark has this great ranking.

31:15I watch it every time you post a new one of the democratic primary, who

31:18was the most likely to get it?

31:19Who's not his, the least likely to get it.

31:21But, uh, you have been, uh, famously bearish on Gavin Newsom for a very long

31:26time until recently. You are extremely bullish though on Rahm Emanuel, in my opinion, much

31:31more so than I would.

31:32I really, you speak very favorably about his possibilities of him being a nominee.

31:37Truly, truly my sources do.

31:40And I, I, I report what they say.

31:42I don't, I think there's a very small chance of his being the nomination, probably

31:46none, except if, except if lots of people don't run and the establishment just gathers

31:52around him. I, I think that I think his record with, uh, one of your

31:56favorite groups, the teacher's unions in Chicago, I think his, his lack of bedside manner,

32:02I think his being Jewish, being short, I think being, I think that he said

32:07opposition researchers dream. No, I'm, I'm, I'm sorry.

32:10I gave you the wrong impression.

32:12He's on my list of eight because, because such a weak field.

32:15And because he does have so much support from the establishment and under certain circumstances,

32:20I believe he could be endorsed by both Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, which for

32:24a lot of voters, uh, could make a difference.

32:26Endorsements really do, but I think those might.

32:28So I'm not bullish on him at all.

32:31Um, um, um, um, um, um, um, um, um, uh, um, uh, uh, aware though

32:34that a lot of my sources are.

32:36What in your opinion, I, cause I said this in my monologue, the, the calendar

32:41is very important. And if so, South Carolina goes first.

32:44Black women in the South play an extraordinarily, you know, their vote really, really, really

32:50matters. And they are the vote that save Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

32:54Who is playing to the progressive base who lives in New Hampshire and Vermont and

32:59who is playing to black women in the deep South and playing them strong?

33:02Because it's a completely set of different values.

33:06Well, yes and no. I mean, in this field, in this Republican, in this Democratic

33:11Party, I don't know that that's some sort of like existential choice between the two.

33:16I think right now, at this phase, at least, what what voters, whether they're Bernie

33:22Sanders, you know, living on the New Hampshire border, Vermont border in New Hampshire, or

33:27whether they're, you know, 70 year old black women who vote regularly in South Carolina.

33:31They want someone to stand up to Trump.

33:32They want someone who's got energy.

33:34They want someone who seems to be able to bridge the divides within the party

33:38and within the country. So I think I unlike some past cycles.

33:43And again, partly it's because the calendar is unsettled and partly because the field is

33:46so weak. I don't I don't see lots of specialization in terms of either demographics

33:52or geography at this point.

33:54I think everybody is trying to play everywhere.

33:56And because no one is particularly strong, you can be Pete Buttigieg historically, you know,

34:03comically weak with black voters and say, I'm going to make a play for that

34:06because with the exception of Kamala Harris, there's really no one in the in the

34:09potential field who has some sort of historic or deep hold on black women voters.

34:14I have told pollsters to put a poll in South Carolina or in Alabama or

34:18wherever where you put Pete Buttigieg up against a fictional Democrat and see who pulls

34:23higher with black voters. I would actually like to see it as I bet it's

34:26not Pete Buttigieg. But I think that there is I think there's a cautionary tale

34:32with Kamala Harris in 2024, where she famously said that she would give transgender illegal

34:37aliens free medical care. And it really did actually hurt her base with with progressive

34:43with with with regular voters and for the love of progressives that she's not getting

34:47anyway. Is there caution exists today at all?

34:52Like, hey, we can't go too far to the left.

34:54I know Andy Beshear does it, but does anybody else?

34:57Well, your favorite candidate, Rahm Emanuel, does.

35:00Gavin Newsom does it. Gavin Newsom does it episodically.

35:03I think there's part of why this is so unsettled, besides, again, the weakness of

35:08the field and the lack of a DNC sanctions nominating calendar is there's there's two

35:14variables that if you look at the elections of 2016 and 2020, you would say

35:21would be a super source of strength for the Democratic nominee.

35:24Because I believe Sanders, Senator Sanders would have been the nominee in 16 and in

35:2820 if the DNC hadn't agreed the rules to keep him from winning.

35:32One is super progressive. And with the exception of AOC and and Ro Khanna, there's

35:40no one else in my top list that are super progressive, like single payer, Green

35:45New Deal, you know, all that.

35:47But so so so that's one.

35:48And then the other is is sort of is sort of populist outsider that no

35:53member of Congress except AOC need apply.

35:56Even governors might not be outsider enough.

35:59Right. So it's hard to know because 24 is not part of the sample space

36:05because we had an incumbent president and then he handed it off to an incumbent

36:08vice president. But most of the of the fingertip feel my sources have and I

36:13have for the Democratic Party says a populist super left wing outsider is a good

36:20lane may not it may not win, but it's a good lane.

36:23And again, I don't think AOC will run in the end.

36:25And so someone has to fill that lane.

36:29And and I don't see it right now.

36:31I don't see who that person is.

36:33Yeah, it's funny. Also, the thing I'm hearing from Democratic consultants and activists is no

36:38women. I've heard from multiple Democrats saying we are not voting for a woman this

36:42time. Right. So like you hear no women, you hear no Jew, you hear no

36:48gay, you hear no non -white.

36:51So that doesn't leave a lot of people.

36:53That leaves Gavin Newsom and Andy Beshear for the most part.

36:57I do not believe that that Josh Shapiro conversation happened where they accused him of

37:00being an agent or asked me was an agent for Israel.

37:02I don't believe that happened whatsoever.

37:05I mean, I don't know.

37:07I'm agnostic on that, but I don't just don't think that that that that specific

37:10or the general question of whether he makes stuff up are very big problems compared

37:14to most of the other candidates.

37:16Well, yeah, that's true. OK, so if you had your ranking now, who is the

37:20top person who is leading the field?

37:22The weak field, mind you, but the leading field.

37:24I think Newsom and Shapiro are head and shoulders above everyone else.

37:28But I don't think Newsom is going to make it to the starting line in

37:31the end. And I think Shapiro has massive flaws.

37:34But I also don't believe in this white knight theory that somebody surprising is going

37:37to come through. So my current my current bet is is it's going to be

37:42Buttigieg as implausible as that is.

37:46But but until until they prove either they're not running or they're weak, I think

37:51it'd be either Newsom or Shapiro.

37:52I literally guessed that is that is that is a hot take.

37:57If you could compare this field as a student of history, compare this field to

38:01any other previous primary, which one would it be?

38:03Is this like 2004, 2000?

38:05And I don't even know.

38:06Nineteen to 2004 was a pretty weak field.

38:09But I think this is currently the.

38:10biggest field. Well, Mark Halperin, thank you so much.

38:13Where people go to read all your stuff, listen to you.

38:15Your shows are always a must -watch in my household.

38:18I appreciate that. Next up on YouTube or two -way .tv, you can find some

38:25of my content there. That's plenty.

38:27Yeah. Thank you so much.

38:28Okay. Thank you. Great to see you.

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41:31Savings vary. Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment.

41:35If you want to be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, you'll be Ryan

41:38at numbersgamepodcast .com. That's Ryan at numberspluralnumbersgamepodcast .com.

41:42This question comes from my buddy, Peter Fomo.

41:44He says, if the Save Act passes, what is your opinion on whether or not

41:47it will help Republicans? I assume it will help.

41:50But my concern is that Republicans, the low -propensity voters may not get the effort

41:53to register. Um, maybe, I mean, it affects new registrations on existing ones.

41:59I think it will have a minimal effect.

42:03Where I think it could have a large effect, the place that's going to have

42:07the biggest effect, is in states with automatic voter registration.

42:11So, amongst swing states, places like Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Georgia.

42:16Um, in Georgia, I think it will actually help Republicans a lot.

42:19A lot of low -propensity, mostly black voters who do turn out for Joe Biden,

42:24who turn out for Stacey Abrams, who turn out for, you know, any Democrat, they

42:29will likely not be able to automatically get voter registration, which means they have to

42:33do the work and not just show up on election day, which would probably decrease

42:36voter turnout among that population.

42:38But it's going to be very small, I, my bet.

42:41Um, and I don't think it's going to necessarily change the dichotomy too much.

42:45I would guess my, if I had to put a money where it helps Republicans,

42:48it will affect automatic voter registration and that will impede probably automatic registration in, in,

42:57in states that, um, in states with, with large populations of low -propensity Democratic voters

43:02like Nevada and Georgia. That's my guess.

43:05Uh, we'll see. We'll see if it even passes.

43:07I mean, they're, they're coming up to a problem now with Lisa Murkowski not supporting

43:10it. So who knows? I mean, it's going to be by the skin of their

43:14teeth if they get this thing through.

43:16Um, we'll have to wait and see.

43:17Anyway, that's this episode. If you like this podcast, please like and subscribe on the

43:21iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, where we get your podcast, and I will talk to you

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It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind 2028: Is JD Vance Inevitable? Democrats in Disarray & Jeffries’ House Problem