It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Illinois Primaries: $32M Spending, PAC Power & Political Winners
3/23/202657 mincomplete
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0:22Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Grudusky.
0:26Thank you guys for being here.
0:27I had an insane weekend that I want to tell you about before I get
0:31into the topic at hand.
0:34So first of all, very important.
0:36I don't really talk about this very often, but I held, I hosted company over
0:40the weekend, made my grandmother's homemade meatballs and sauce.
0:43And let me tell you, it was a home run.
0:46More importantly, I had to go to DC to just go for a work meeting.
0:52It was a quick 24 -hour turnaround trip.
0:55I get there late one night and I said, well, let me go meet with
0:59somebody, just have dinner with somebody.
1:01So I reached out to my friend who's a very well -known reporter and he
1:03said, come to Cafe Milano.
1:05This is a very she -she restaurant, very expensive, a place that people want to
1:10be seen at, right? Because it's a lot of connections and people in the DC
1:13scene. So upon entering, I immediately see three US senators with a very well -known
1:19DC military contractor. So I, you know, I spot that out of the corner of
1:23my eye. I roll my eyes and I just keep walking.
1:25Well, we get to the table where my friend's at and he has some friends,
1:30British friends who are reporters and politicians at the table as well.
1:34And most Americans, that means nothing to them.
1:36But for me, because I follow British politics so frequently, I knew exactly who was
1:40sitting with us. So it was a former member of the British Conservative Party, a
1:45very, very prominent member of the British Conservative Party.
1:49This was a man who was in charge of all the vaccinations during COVID.
1:53This was, he ran for prime minister and lost to Liz Truss.
1:58Most Americans, by the way, would not, that would not register at all.
2:01I immediately knew, I only not only knew who he was, I knew his record.
2:04And he was kind of, for an American, he's way too big governor for American.
2:09I guess in Britain, he wouldn't be considered very conservative anyway.
2:13Anyway, so we started talking and we're chatting about, you know, the state of England,
2:17the state of American politics.
2:18We're talking about Nigel Farage and Reform UK.
2:20And he has since left the British Conservative Party to run, to work, to be
2:24part of Reform UK. And someone at the table asked him, are you going to
2:28run for office again? And he said he's being considered, he's considering doing it.
2:32He's considered running for office again.
2:33And, you know, people always accuse me of being abrasive and, or putting on a
2:39show that I'm abrasive. I am the same way morning, noon and night, whether you
2:43see me, whether you don't.
2:44I mean, it's always the same personality.
2:46So I kind of, I couldn't hold my tongue back.
2:50I just said to him, respectfully, sir, your party was in the majority for a
2:54decade in the UK and you did virtually nothing.
2:58Like, you left the country off way worse than when you found it.
3:03And why, like, what did you learn differently this time than last time?
3:09Like, why are you going to, what, what, what else could you possibly, you know,
3:13wreck if you get elected again?
3:14And he said some interesting things, especially about energy policy.
3:17The UK has a horrendous energy policy.
3:19They have net zero, which is doing terrible things for their, their economy.
3:24And identifies particularly like the Tories, the Conservative Party should have made their identity about
3:29wiping away former Prime Minister Tony Blair's record.
3:32Tony Blair is the one who kicked open the floodgates of third world mass immigration
3:38to England. Tony, Tony Blair pushed forward on, on, on, on net zero, him and
3:44his successor. Tony Blair had the Equality Act, which put all these policemen at risk
3:50of losing their jobs if they were accused of racism when the grooming gangs were
3:54happening. I mean, Tony Blair was a horrendous prime minister to the UK.
3:59And the same way that Trump's, a lot of Trump, what Trump does is to
4:03erase the Obama legacy. The Tories should have been very, very complicit in erasing Blair's
4:08legacy. And they kind of went along with the continuing a lot of Blair's legacy.
4:12It was crazy. So after pushing back, I just, I try to make everything nice.
4:17I said, what is some interesting things that you remember from your time there being
4:20such a senior ranking member of the ruling party?
4:23And he said that there's thing in the UK called Cobra.
4:27Now I'd heard of it before, but my other guest did it.
4:30Cobra is like the secret government meeting of top notch people when there is a
4:34national crisis going on. It's like, it would be like going to, it's not the
4:38same thing as Camp David, but, or the situation, maybe like going to the situation
4:41room, it's called Cobra in the UK.
4:43It's not the health insurance alternative policy.
4:45It's called Cobra. Anyway, um, that's also called Cobra, this American Cobra.
4:50Oh, back to the, back to the story.
4:52So I said, what was, what are some things like that you can share that
4:55were two like crazy moments during Cobra?
4:58And he said, one was the vote to shut down the government because he said
5:02that he wasn't for it knowing what he said.
5:04I don't, I don't believe that.
5:05I think he was probably very for shutting down the government.
5:08But, um, he said the weirdest thing is the Cobra meeting was in London.
5:12So it's a huge city.
5:13It's millions and millions of people.
5:14So he would like, they agree, we're going to shut the government down.
5:18And then he walked down to the street to, as he called it, humanity.
5:22There's thousands of people walking past him.
5:24And he goes, the whole time I'm thinking, you have no idea what we've just
5:28decided. Like, we're going, everyone's on lockdown, like in 24 hours, and you're all just
5:33going, this is the last moments you have to go about your business the way
5:37that you've been doing your entire lives.
5:38That was kind of fascinating from a psychological, he wasn't taking Galeena, by the way,
5:42he wasn't sounding like a sociopath.
5:43He was, he was feeling like, this is insane.
5:46And then the second thing, this is crazy, because I had not even heard of
5:50this. And I follow the news pretty closely.
5:52He said that they got a Cobra call because this is several years ago, Putin
5:57was going to test a nuclear missile in the Black Sea, which is the, you
6:03know, water barrier between Russia and Ukraine and Turkey and all these other, and a
6:09lot of the Balkan nations.
6:12And he was going to test, yeah, he was gonna test a nuclear bomb.
6:19And I said, what did you do?
6:20Like, what do you do when you hear that Putin had a test nuclear bomb?
6:22He said, we immediately started trying to call China to ask China to turn, talk
6:27him out of it. And we were trying to figure out every other world leader
6:31with a close relationship with Putin to turn, to make him change his mind.
6:36Anyway, he did, he changed his mind in the end, but it was a fascinating
6:39story. It really had me kind of gripped to the edge of my seat.
6:42Oh, wait, that was, that's the whole story.
6:44That was the whole weekend, but that was the weekend trip.
6:46But it was, I thought it was great.
6:47That was really an interesting caveat that you guys would really like.
6:50Okay, so over the last week, something else completely different, aside from my trip and
6:56the dinners I cooked, were, that came out.
6:58And it's around the topic of AI, which you guys, I have not had like
7:03an autistic spasm talking about AI in quite some time.
7:05So give me some credit, but we're gonna talk about it now because it involves
7:09both politics and policy and polling.
7:12All my favorite subject matters to put into one.
7:15So let's talk about specifically the polling first.
7:20David Shore, who's a very, very intelligent Democratic pollster.
7:24I'm a big fan. I've been invited on this podcast many times.
7:27He has not since come.
7:28I don't think he's gonna come because I don't know, a lot of progressives, I've
7:32had a lot of good progressives on the show, but a lot of them are
7:35afraid that they're gonna be attacked by the liberal mob if they come on and
7:40talk with me. I don't know.
7:40I am assuming that. I was never been told.
7:42I actually was told that by one person, but I'm assuming that's the truth for
7:45everyone who doesn't agree to come, who is a progressive that I think is smart.
7:49But David Shore is a very smart progressive.
7:51And he had a data about AI that I think you all need to hear.
7:58So here's what he found in his data.
8:00No issue has increased in importance to average voters than AI.
8:05No other issue. Not, think of everything that's come in the last year, right?
8:09The only other issue that even comes close to how much people have taken interest
8:14in AI is war in the Middle East.
8:17Put that into perspective. How much coverage has war and conflict in the Middle East
8:21received in mainstream media, in alternative media, in social media, and versus AI?
8:28I believe if you studied it dollar for dollar, it's probably one -sided for war
8:33with Iran and war in the Middle East.
8:35Nonetheless, people care about more AI than they care about any other issue, including war.
8:40Secondly, AI is hitting at a time where most Americans are increasingly saying life is
8:47unaffordable. Only 9 % of Americans say that life is getting more affordable.
8:5261 % say life is more unaffordable.
8:55Only 25 % of voters say they feel confident in their financial future.
9:02That is not big, especially when you consider how much of the population is wealthy,
9:08retired, or on benefits of some sort where the government is financing a lot of
9:15their life. That's a huge part of the electorate.
9:18That's a huge, huge part.
9:20And still, only 25 % feel good in their financial future.
9:24Third, a majority of voters, 56%, are worried about their job security.
9:31And 79 % are concerned the government doesn't have a plan to protect workers from
9:36AI job loss. 77 % are concerned that industries are going to be eliminated.
9:43And 79 % are worried there will be fewer opportunities for young people.
9:47Those are those 80 -20 issues.
9:50That is like a poll question asking, should a known rapist with a penis be
10:01allowed to shower next to a nine -year -old girl in a public bathroom if
10:06he declares that he is a woman?
10:08Like, that's that lopsided, right?
10:10I want you to put this into perspective.
10:12This is not an issue where there's a lot of gray nuance.
10:17People have serious opinions that are extremely one way.
10:24It is like the transgender issue.
10:26It is one way, and it is going towards that way.
10:29It is increasingly moving towards that way.
10:31We're gonna have a transgender episode next episode, by the way, but another transgender episode.
10:36But anyway, this is where it's going.
10:37It's moving in one direction.
10:41Fourth, voters do not trust the notion that everything is going to be fine.
10:45When told that AI will create economic productivity that benefits everyone, 56 % of voters
10:51don't trust. that statement. 36 % say they trust it somewhat to a lot.
10:56Voters also do not trust the idea that AI will not cause widespread job loss.
11:02Only 26 % of voters believe that AI will not cause widespread job loss.
11:0967 % do not trust people who say that.
11:13When asked, what is the more important?
11:15Funding the creation of new jobs and basic benefits like healthcare, even if it means
11:21limiting the amount that American tech companies can profit from AI or keep innovation so
11:28the American outcompetes the rest of the world in developing AI, even if it allows
11:33tech companies to profit from eliminating jobs.
11:36By the way, David Shore, who made that question, a little bias, a little bias
11:39of a question. Anyway, obviously, they cared more about protecting jobs than innovation.
11:46Next question. And while I want you to hear this, I want you to, if
11:51you hear nothing else from this entire podcast, listen to the next two points.
11:56I have said over and over and over again, AI is how Democrats are going
12:02to put socialism in this country.
12:05Ro Khanna was on this podcast and basically said it.
12:08It's his plan for the new deal.
12:10Massive redistribution of wealth, even at mass unemployment levels.
12:16When asked if people would rather have a job or direct handouts, like Ro Khanna
12:22said, 54 % said they would rather have a job and rather have the government
12:28ensure they have a job.
12:30Only 17 % want direct handouts.
12:3315%, only 15 % are libertarians who say we don't want the government to do
12:38anything. 55 % want to make sure tech companies cannot make unlimited profits.
12:47They include a plurality of Trump voters.
12:51Listen to me and listen to me carefully with what I just said.
12:56More Trump voters believe tech companies should be held financially responsible for the jobs they
13:04destroy through AI, that AI eliminates, than believes they should be able to profit off
13:10of it. This is not a small thing.
13:14This is not a, oh, maybe there's some gray area, maybe we're gonna, maybe we're,
13:17no. Remember I had on, I had on the pollster a couple weeks ago who
13:22said that he was shocked by how, um, how politics has become a circle that
13:27very far right wing people are believing in very far left wing things and we're
13:32not a linear political belief anymore.
13:34This is a perfect example.
13:37When nearly 50 % of Trump voters are saying tech companies should not make unlimited
13:45profits, we need to regulate them.
13:48It is not a question of if those regulations are going to come.
13:53It is a question of when and to the severity.
13:57You need a very smart politician to make sure you do not destroy the entire
14:01system or they just vote for someone who will throw a, you know, a Molotov
14:07cocktail. They will vote for a Trump of the left.
14:09They will vote for an AOC type.
14:11I'm not joking when I say this.
14:13It is a very sincere point I am making right now.
14:17It's not a question of if, it's a question of when.
14:21Last two points on this poll.
14:24And while voters prefer a tax that specifically taxes companies on AI, they like that
14:31more than like the idea of a wealth tax.
14:33Remember the California wealth tax?
14:34They're taxing billionaires. All these billionaires are fleeing.
14:36Only 27 % of voters want a wealth tax because overall we are a capitalist
14:42nation, but 49 % want an AI tax.
14:46And if you don't do one, Republicans, listen, if you don't do one, you will
14:52end up with the other.
14:54I'm making it perfectly crystal clear.
14:57If you don't push for some kind of AI tax or movement, you will end
15:03up with a wealth tax.
15:05Lastly, AI specific populism outperforms all other conversations around economic populism and AI when it
15:13comes to support, helping Democrats win elections.
15:15It moves the needle, the electric needle, an average of 4 % towards Democrats.
15:22Do you understand what that means?
15:24It means you go from a Trump 2024 election to an Obama 2012 style election
15:30if just the AI populism point is hit on.
15:33Now, obviously there's other issues.
15:35There's transgender issues. There's immigration.
15:37There's a lot of things Democrats believe that are nutty and batty and crazy.
15:40You put the unemployment level at 10 to 20 % because of all these AI
15:44regulations and AI innovations rather.
15:47We are in a different world then.
15:49Now, this all comes as two things are happening.
15:53There are two competing Republican rollouts when it comes to AI regulations.
15:58The first is from the White House.
16:00It is a four -page memo on the AI framework policy.
16:04It is pretty straightforward. It's only four pages if you want to go read it.
16:06It's pretty simple. I'll go through a few, few points because it is, it's a
16:10lot to read. But basically there's the main, the first point is about protecting kids.
16:15It says Congress should empower parents and guardians with robust tools to manage their child's
16:19privacy settings. Screen times, content exposure, and account controls.
16:24A, meaning it's on the parents.
16:27They're going to do the same thing they do for YouTube and all the other
16:29stuff that has gone forward for a lot of these social media websites.
16:32But it's all on the parents.
16:34It's not to the AI companies.
16:35Congress established commercially reasonable privacy, protective, and age assurance requirements for the AI platforms.
16:42That's on the AI companies.
16:43Congress should require AI platforms and services likely to be accessed by minors to implement
16:49features that reduce the risk of sexual exploitation and self -harm to minors.
16:54Congress should affirm that the existing child privacy policies apply to the AI systems, including
16:59limits on data collection, remodel training, and targeted advertising.
17:02All of the most regulatory or pro -regulatory language around AI came from the child
17:11section about protecting kids, where I think you're going to get the most amount of
17:14bipartisan support. And also the taxpayers should not feel the increased electricity costs from data
17:22centers, streamline federal permits around AI infrastructure.
17:25That's a boom for the AI industry.
17:27Grants for small businesses so they could develop AI in their businesses.
17:31Once again, boom for the AI industry.
17:33More antitrust liabilities for AI.
17:35That means that you can't just steal people's content.
17:39More protections on copyright. Allow for collective rights and licensing framework.
17:43Prevent government from forcing AI companies to comply with ideological standards.
17:47That's the whole free speech stuff.
17:48And when the next Democrat comes in, Congress should not create any new federal rulemaking
17:53body that regulates AI. Once again, big win for the AI industry.
17:57And should instead support a development and deployment of sector -specific AI applications through existing
18:02regulatory bodies with a subject matter, expertise, and thorough industry -led standards.
18:08Expand efforts to study trends with job losses.
18:12What a stupid freaking part of the bill.
18:14And develop AI youth development program.
18:18Also incredibly stupid. We're going to have an education episode about what we're discovering with
18:24AI and education. It's going to make your jaws drop.
18:27But okay. But mostly the AI companies win big time because what this outlines on
18:32the bill, what an outline does is it says to the states, it gives them,
18:37it gives a little bit around child protection, a little bit around copyright protection, a
18:41guidelines for Congress. But what it mainly says is Congress should preempt state AI laws
18:46that impose undue burdens to ensure a minimally burdensome national standards consistent with these recommendations,
18:53not 50 discordant ones. This national standard should respect key principles of federalism and not
19:00preempt traditional police powers retained by the states to enforce laws of general applicability against
19:06AI developers and users, state zoning laws, requirements of governors to state their one's own
19:12use of AI, whether it be procurement or services.
19:15Preemption must also ensure that state laws do not govern areas better suited for the
19:20federal government, states should not be permitted to regulate AI development because it is inherently
19:25an interstate phenomenon, states should not unduly burden Americans use of AI for activity that
19:30would be lawful if performed without AI, states should not be permitted to penalize AI
19:34developers for third parties on lawful conduct, including involving their models, i .e.
19:41what that means is someone using AI to harm you, AI companies, they're not, they're
19:48not, they're not responsible. It's a huge win for the AI companies, huge win.
19:52It is, it's as if somebody that, the whole outline is as if somebody just
19:57woke up one day from the White House and said, guys, we're doing the bare
20:01minimum today. That's what it is.
20:03It's the bare minimum. I mean, the voters are going to respond positively to the
20:06child protection stuff. They'll, you know, respond, you know, respond positively towards issues around copyright
20:16and licensing. What they will not respond positively to, because we know how slow Congress
20:21moves, is all other regulation only can go through Congress when they're giving so limited
20:27regulations in this, in this bill.
20:29I mean, there's not a lot there.
20:32This doesn't have a ton of teeth, and it's more protections for AI industry than
20:36it is regulations to protect citizens and protect workers is, like, not in there at
20:42all. Now, Senator Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee, Republican of Tennessee, also issued her own bill
20:47around AI regulation. Unlike the four pages from the White House, this bill was 291
20:52pages long. I'm not going to pretend I read it, I did not read it,
20:55but it covers a series of AI regulations that are overwhelmingly popular with voters and
21:00absolutely encroaches on AI companies' ability to make endless profits while displacing American workers.
21:06That is why the AI tech people, the minute the bill came out, started screaming
21:10how horrible it was. And you can already see, by the way, the White House
21:13has reached out to all their influencers to talk about how amazing their framework is.
21:19The people who don't have a high school diploma are screaming how great they know.
21:23They know every AI regulation at this point.
21:25It's amazing. The Marsha Blackburn bill is obviously an opening, you know, offer.
21:31It's not a perfect bill.
21:33It will go through many, many different cycles, but it is there.
21:36It is something. It is also baffling to my mind how the White House is
21:43doing this now in March, knowing how few dates are.
21:47available left for this Congress to even offer an AI bill, knowing that parts of
21:53the bill are so unpopular ahead of the midterms.
21:56This makes no sense whatsoever.
21:58I mean, I cannot even get into the whole political standings of this entire thing.
22:03Tone deafness must be clinical to a lot of this White House.
22:08Tone deafness must be completely clinical.
22:12It must be, I don't know, contagious.
22:16I have no idea. Something is going on where they are not reading the room
22:21and they're only hearing influencers who want to be invited to the right parties and
22:26people in the business sector who want some profits because that's all it seems to
22:31be and everyone else is getting scraps.
22:35I can't describe it any other way.
22:37I think this is insane.
22:38I just think this is completely insane.
22:41While all this is going on, there is a primary in Chicago where AI and
22:46crypto and the American -Israeli Political Action Committee all were working to have their own
22:52candidates win. $32 million was spent on four house races in Illinois.
22:59Staggering amounts of money is larger than all the campaigns themselves is the outside money
23:05that these companies, especially AI, are now putting to get their chosen person elected to
23:11Congress that will play ball with them on the issues.
23:14And they're not even running on the AI issue.
23:17It's very complicated, but it's very interesting.
23:20Stay tuned for my interview with Dave Weigel, national reporter who covered this.
23:24That's coming up next. Hi, I'm Lita and my business, The Donut Mum, is backed
23:32by ComBank. When we opened, it was just me and my husband Holly.
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23:39You see the big stores and think they've got people for everything.
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23:52Business security baked in, no doubt.
23:55Eligibility criteria and T's and T's apply.
23:58With me on today's episode is David Weigel, the national political reporter for Semaphore.
24:03David, thanks for coming on this podcast.
24:04It's great to be here.
24:06Thanks for having me. So, David, you covered the Illinois elections.
24:09As I said in my monologue, this was an incredibly expensive series of house primaries,
24:15over $32 million spent by just a few groups, and that's not including the progressive
24:20interests. Who were the biggest winners of this election cycle?
24:26The absolute biggest winner in Illinois was Governor Pritzker.
24:30So, Governor J .B. Pritzker, I think famously is a billionaire, is able to fund
24:35whatever campaign he wants. He did this when he first ran for governor.
24:38He's done it in his subsequent campaigns.
24:39He's shoveled money to state parties where he might run, he might want to favor
24:44later if he runs for president.
24:46He basically helped elect Julianna Stratton, or nominate Julianna Stratton, his lieutenant governor.
24:53The sense I got there from covering that campaign is that it was Rajat Krishnamurthy,
24:59the congressman, who'd spent $40 million, much more than ever been spent, to win that
25:02seat in Illinois. The U .S.
25:04Senate seat. The U .S.
25:06Senate seat. U .S. Senate seat to replace Dick Durbin.
25:08He had the advantage, and Pritzker deciding to put millions of dollars into Super PAC
25:13for Stratton. That changed that race.
25:15See, down the ballot, he helped to let people that he wanted.
25:18I think he had a 100 % record.
25:20Now, he wasn't as involved in the House races, and so that was a nice,
25:25messy story. There was not one particular narrative from the election.
25:29What you saw instead was groups that had played in it come out quickly to
25:33declare victory. AIPAC was the most vocal, saying, we had a great election night.
25:38It was not that great of election night.
25:39It was better than, they started the year in New Jersey with a debacle, where
25:44AIPAC spent millions of dollars to beat Tom Malinowski, ended up with a more left
25:47-wing candidate. Okay, sure. Sorry if we're going too fast.
25:52No, no, no, no, no.
25:53I want to set the stage, because that is true.
25:55So the biggest winner is the governor, Pritzker, who's likely running for president, or at
25:59least flirting with us. AIPAC, the American -Israeli Political Action Committee, they are the pro
26:04-Israel PAC, as you said, in New Jersey earlier this year, really campaigned against Tom
26:09Malinowski, the former congressman, to defeat him, ended up with a further left -wing anti
26:14-Israel candidate. Now, they invested in how many seats in this election in Illinois, and
26:18how did they come out?
26:19In four. They won two, they lost two.
26:22The one that they had the biggest victory in, in Southside Chicago, in the suburbs,
26:28that's where Jesse Jackson Jr.
26:30lost. They were helped by Jesse Jackson Jr.
26:32being pretty toxic to all but his base of voters.
26:34The other one they won, Northwest suburbs of Chicago, like Schaumburg, places like that, they
26:41were pulling in the same direction as Fairshake and the AIPACs that are new to
26:46this cycle. That also had a pretty mixed night.
26:48So, AIPAC won two races.
26:50It declared victory overall, and I'm being critical, not critical since the election, but just
26:56pointing out factually, as it was clear that they were not going to run the
27:00table, AIPAC's public spin started to be, well, we want to keep these potential squad
27:05members out of Congress. And so, we're going to keep Kat Ubegazela, Bushra Amawala, who
27:12is running in the ninth district, which is Evanston LA.
27:15part of chicago uh frankly i went to northwestern i lived in evanston it's it's
27:20really the district where people like there um they go to school they usually live
27:24in wrigleyville when they graduate uh and maybe they get a kid and move to
27:28the suburbs so that very very district i know a lot about um the they
27:33wanted dan biff to lose the mayor of evanston who is a uh what he
27:37called when i talked to him a progressive zionist israel should exist but we should
27:42stop funding them militarily they wanted to meet him they got behind laura fine who's
27:47a state senator who's much more pro -israel down the line uh this and this
27:51he was telling everyone before the election he's talked about more but after this is
27:55polling said apac's brand is terrible in a highly educated progressive district he ran against
28:00apac and he said my opponent is supported by apac i i am a progressive
28:05who's going to oppose them and never take their money and never be influenced by
28:08them so they did they did spend to beat uh kat abogazela who was more
28:13left -wing on israel more calling it a genocide she didn't even support iron dome
28:17during one of the debates she said you know supporting weapons there's no such thing
28:20as defensive weapons yeah she's on cnn a lot you famously she me if anyone
28:26may know her she was the woman who went to the ice protests and they
28:29literally threw her on her ass like they they picked her up and threw her
28:33on her ass um yeah she she but she wasn't even from the district when
28:37she ran she wasn't she had no ties to the district uh her partner which
28:43she disclosed is ben collins who uh took over the onion last year i believe
28:48in the 2024 i believe is when he took it over and they moved there
28:51because uh she lost her job at media matters when they downsized after a bunch
28:55of state and elon musk lawsuits uh she ran as i have fought billionaires i'm
29:01responsible for getting tucker carlson off the air um yes i'm not from here but
29:05but i'm the sort of democrat you want to get to have in dc fighting
29:09for you actually did a good job with no ties the district uh 26 of
29:13the vote and turnout was very high there i mean i the what's the biggest
29:18left -wing victory that set off a lot of their strategy was aoc winning in
29:22uh 2018 more people voted for kat and abogazela in this district than voted complete
29:27period in the aoc race right 30 i think 31 000 or 32 000 votes
29:32so she did tap into something there but this had a record as a progressive
29:37critic of israel and i think if this is not in that race in a
29:41divided field she she probably could have won uh she she had more support than
29:45lara fine yeah so apac took credit after the election but they they really learned
29:50in that district that the brand the apac brand after a couple cycles of doing
29:54this and i've been covering this since the beginning apac starting up a pack with
29:58a different name running in a seat if people say apac supports you it is
30:01now a huge demerit in a democratic primary and the other race they lost was
30:06uh kind of a loop of chicago the a very safe seat in downtown chicago
30:11uh they they backed uh city treasurer melissa conyers urban she flopped uh and another
30:19democrat was elected apac sort of took credit because a more pro a more anti
30:23-israel democrat was not elected but no that was so far for the cycle apac
30:28is um they're i'd say two for two for five on who they actually want
30:32to be in congress winning to they're they're they're winning by losing uh in their
30:36words and the one person that they backed it's what's what's what is it purist
30:41uh what is it purist said or somebody said to purist you know another victory
30:45like that and we're done for like that's kind of the apac style in these
30:48primaries yeah the um the other person that they really backed was melissa bean she
30:53was a former congressman running again um she was backed by apac crypto and ai
31:00she basically had the the everyone supporting her with all this outside money um and
31:07she was the one victor for basically everybody before i go to ai let's go
31:10to crypto they spent a lot of money the crypto people they're putting a lot
31:14in this entire election cycle how did their elections shake out no not great so
31:20this is the worst night for the crypto pack since they've gotten involved in politics
31:24that started in 2024 uh they didn't pretend it wasn't they quickly reacted to the
31:29results and said look we spent for these candidates we got three people elected they
31:32they took credit there was a nikki basinski who's a democrat in a safe seat
31:35uh and the illinois gerrymander is famous all these a lot of seats because they'll
31:39draw a line across the state to get all the democratic precincts uh she had
31:43a progressive challenger she smoked him they took credit for that but that wasn't really
31:47competitive um fair shake bean was the biggest victory they had so being being this
31:52former former congresswoman she lost in the 2010 wave uh she was one of the
31:57most conservative democrats in the house when she was there and the campaigns all of
32:01them including hers but fair shakes ads really leaned on this they kind of reintroduced
32:05her as a progressive pro -obamacare anti -ice democrat the the victory had a lot
32:11to do with progressives did not unite behind anybody uh you just so bernie sanders
32:16and aoc got behind the same person warren got behind him but united about ahmed
32:20who was a pretty well -known progressive in the district but the congressional black caucus
32:25backed somebody else there was a there were other electeds in the in the in
32:28the brace who had no support but they kept running so being wins was about
32:3232 percent there's no runoffs in illinois that was a good victory for fair shake
32:36fair shake uh is also on the right side in uh in in the in
32:40the this the district that jesse jack jr lost the second in the south side
32:45but it spent uh 10 million dollars to help roger christian morthy i i was
32:50double checking that's the most they've spent on the candidate who lost and fair shake
32:54has made these very a little bit ironic if you're a crypto investor you have
32:58some capacity for risk fair shake's pretty careful uh fair shake generally moves into winnable
33:02races or races where somebody's winning already like uh who was a democrat that supported
33:06in 2024 ruben gallego who was always favored to beat carrie lake it really wanted
33:11to beat sherrod brown spent a lot it's been good in races where the battlefields
33:17might go their way anyway they took this risk on what did not look like
33:21a risk on raja and he lost so this is not a pretty decent amount
33:26too he was bigger than people thought yeah it wasn't particularly close and the ironic
33:31thing with his race is he won rural ex -urban white parts of the state
33:37and got demolished in the progressive areas and in the ethnic areas and in the
33:41black areas yeah that and you could tell on election night uh talking to campaigns
33:47they knew raja was in trouble early on because some of the first counties that
33:51are reporting are more rural outside the city places where uh stratton did not have
33:56the money to put a go on the air even with the super PAC and
33:58he wasn't doing that great you know like rural illinois outside of east st louis
34:02he was he was tied there losing losing to stratton parts of that any place
34:07where there was a college any sort of any place with a lot of state
34:10workers he was getting crushed so he uh threatened and i talked to her ad
34:14makers for something else i'm writing stratton in this very smart campaign where she her
34:18first ad was a bunch of uh people saying f trump vote juliana but they
34:23said the word the letters after f the three letters after f they said that
34:26um and the goal was let's identify her as the not just pritzker's friend but
34:31the democratic fighter whereas raja is this much more mealy -mouthed guy who raises a
34:36lot of money they they made her the the fighter candidate which is very successful
34:40um robin kelly this this congresswoman who left her seat uh in the south side
34:44that's why it was open she ran as a more progressive democrat she was the
34:48only one to say that israel's carrying out a genocide in a debate it kind
34:51of a she didn't roll that in a weird way neither here nor there but
34:54just just this she at the last minute said oh it's a genocide so she
34:59people who wanted raja to win were pushing her saying if you're a progressive please
35:03waste your vote on her didn't really work um and so talking the campaigns what
35:08raja did raja always had a heavy carry i mean he was a congressman from
35:12the suburbs but he was not a he's never been a dynamic celebrity candidate he's
35:17a he's a more progressive down the line but will break from the party sometimes
35:22democrat uh very good fundraiser but not really somebody who generated passion and uh the
35:30fact that he ran those these ads running for him across the state backfired in
35:35an important way so the fair shake ads and some of his ads attacked stratton
35:41because one of her group packs got donations from ice contractor uh private prison company
35:46that the contracts with ice so they ran these ads those two packs in the
35:50campaign saying stratton was taking money from ice contractors and what i was learning during
35:56and after the campaign is that that backfired just because voters did not look at
35:59david pritzker's lieutenant governor and think oh she's bought off by ice stratton had already
36:04attacked raja by saying he'd gotten money from palantir uh very just and there was
36:09a bit of a race to who could be the most pure most um unwilling
36:13to take money from anybody who did something bad as according to democrats of 2026
36:17uh but she won that argument and people didn't think they didn't believe that she
36:21was she was truly soft on ice and ice was huge issue in this the
36:25fact that pritzker whatever however whatever credit one people want to give him for uh
36:30working against ice uh in the state trying to get them out stop the operation
36:34democrats love that you mentioned katuba gazella getting thrown at the um at the protest
36:39of broadview the ice detention center uh that really made her her that and her
36:43getting indicted for doing that uh she went from and the polling was all over
36:48the map but she went from somebody who was an interesting story but not really
36:51in fighting for first place to occur after that she was very credible and democrats
36:55really have we learned in this primary really put a premium on if you are
37:01willing to fight trump on specific things he's doing and maybe risk your own safety
37:06to do it you know oh i'm going to vote for medicare for all that
37:09matters less than if you are going to prove that you're really fighting trump yeah
37:13we're really in a french revolution era of the democratic party where it's like the
37:17age of enlightenment everyone has to an age of enlightenment but uh but uh the
37:21uh the where is bros pierre putting everyone on trial um uh major terror the
37:25reign of terror part yeah major terror part of the democratic primary cycle that's just
37:30boiling down in new york where they have that really important primary in new york
37:3312 where alex boris is the and is the ai regulation guy and he happened
37:38to used to work for palantir so he the ai companies are saying you worked
37:43for palantir meanwhile they are they all are associated with palantir and it doesn't really
37:47matter anybody um okay ai speaking of ai let's go into ai how did ai
37:52spend in this election how do they fare oh one thing i will note at
37:57the top and i when i was writing about the races i was fairly sympathetic
38:00to something the left was saying which was these companies are spending money on they're
38:05not saying vote for this candy who's good on our issues they were saying vote
38:10for this candy that we've pulled and this is the best issue for him he's
38:13a fighter for affordability or he's fighting ice or something uh so the ai attacks
38:18split their money they were in for bean as you were saying she was the
38:22biggest win for all these groups of of the day they went in for jesse
38:25jackson in uh his comeback jesse jackson jr i should say not that not that
38:30it's jesse jackson obviously but his son his son is a person with um how
38:35do i say this partly seeming to have a long history of mental health issues
38:39yes his son very well known his son went to went to jail for misusing
38:45campaign funds about uh three quarters of a million dollars in campaign funds he spent
38:49on himself and the story there is he he was in a safe seat he
38:53wanted to run for senate one day or be appointed to the senate he asked
38:56rob blagojevich who has been pardoned by trump about that senate appointment um after he
39:00didn't get that appointment he he had but he has struggled with depression and was
39:04spending a lot of money on gifts for himself and his wife is now is
39:08now separated uh or divorced um partner and he went to jail he came out
39:13he tried to re -establish himself in his his 60s now as a different man
39:19as a man who'd learned he wrote a book uh his mom wrote a book
39:22of their prison letters um it just wasn't very credible in the south side of
39:26chicago so i got the sense the ai packs thought well this makes sense this
39:31is the kind of uh that can win in this district and he was also
39:34very pliable uh jesse jackson jr was putting out these in uh videos about his
39:39his economic plans that basically said yes i'm i'm for building data i'm building data
39:44centers i'm for what ai wants to do it's if you've seen eddington they're basically
39:48the ads that um pedro pascal's mayor is running in that movie and didn't work
39:54so uh they they did they did for melissa bean didn't work there uh and
39:59these are tough remember it's we were saying it's gerrymandered so some two of these
40:03seats were in chicago in the city very working class districts mostly black districts two
40:09of them were more suburban uh the suburban ones are more amenable to it and
40:13because there was so much money in it didn't become like that alex boris race
40:16boris is really trying to turn his campaign to a referendum on i can't be
40:20bought by ai the ai money just didn't become as big of a story it
40:24was just this this cloud of of pack spending and they blurred into it well
40:29i think that i think the two things you said were really important one the
40:32amount of money from third party entities is now larger than any campaign or really
40:37larger than almost all the campaigns put together at this point yeah it is its
40:41own i mean this is this is the the outside money for these four house
40:46races is large enough to be a u .s senate race in itself in the
40:49primary can you speak about that like the immense amount of money being put into
40:53these races oh yeah these are again safe democratic seats were usually the winner now
40:58there's always gonna be packs and uh groups get involved but the winner typically only
41:03has to spend maybe two or three million dollars to win those things and and
41:07has no republican opponent in the fall so they don't even become big fundraisers uh
41:10so everyone was outspent by these by these super packs the senate race was only
41:15not lopsided because raja krishnamorthy had raised so much for his own campaign but um
41:19the money that fair shake spent the 10 million dollars in that race that's as
41:22much as dick durbin spent for every one of his senate each year he would
41:26spend about 10 million 12 million dollars in the entire race uh and so that
41:30became a major issue in chicago and all across illinois but most of us in
41:34chicago of people turning because it's one big media market at the tv the mail
41:39was dominated by this these new packs and people had not heard of them and
41:43there are a lot of bitterness now the progressive the most progressive cat is lost
41:46but they were very bitter not inclined to be pro ai in the first place
41:50this is you're seeing this division where um progressives are a little bit more luddite
41:54a little more anti anti uh progress on ai because they see the working class
42:00job loss part of it um but they they were really turning on these facts
42:07because suddenly people were getting mail in their in their mailboxes that talked about how
42:12they this candidate was corrupt and this candidate took money from corporate interest so the
42:15ad was coming from crypto or from ai well i think that i think the
42:19most important what you said is that they're not even talking about the subject of
42:22ai they're not talking about crypto they're not talking about anything that they're talking about
42:26other things like ice and immigration and uh and making that the referendum and not
42:31telling you who is spending or what they're spending on behalf it's a very it's
42:35it's it's different than back in the day when there would be corporations giving candidates
42:40a lot of money for their to make their own case but this immense amount
42:44of super PAC spending is beyond what you you usually see it is and and
42:49that's important the last thing you said because the old there's disclosure regulation for money
42:56you campaigns take there's less for the super PACs that that this has been the
43:00penumbra that i think has made people very cynical is this this area where PACs
43:05can rate some PACs and 501c3s can raise money and either never report exactly where
43:10it came from progressives do this all the time there's a there are donor funds
43:14and they gave to some group and you never find out where the money really
43:17came from uh or those PACs that could start up on the on the calendar
43:21where they're not going to release their donors until after the election's over that's what
43:25happened in illinois where all of a sudden in january um elect chicago women chicago
43:30progressive partnership these groups were popping up with the everyone's awareness they're not going to
43:35report who took who their money is from APAC did not get credit it uh
43:39to not take credit i should say for putting these facts into the field and
43:42so that has made people very cynical because the old way is um this candidate
43:46is taking here's here are his donors you can go to the fec and pull
43:49down uh okay he took this much from the dialysis industry isn't it coincidental that
43:54he has a dialysis bill in the congress this really has broken that connection where
43:59uh and it's a it's led to a lot of paranoia about where money's coming
44:05from and so you were seeing that the final stage of these races were just
44:08people accusing each other of well you took money from this guy and you took
44:11money from this and you 10 years ago took money from this and then it
44:15was it became very much about donors of the campaigns in a way that was
44:18much messier and less enlightening than it that it used to be where somebody oh
44:22this guy's taking money from the oil industry and he represents the houston that makes
44:26sense it was much much more scattershot in in terms of connecting the money to
44:31what they were doing okay my last question you mentioned that all the progressive the
44:34progressive candidates lost a lot i was going to talk about that but it's not
44:37that interesting what is interesting is going into the next couple of election cycles in
44:41the next couple primaries where are these three major groups crypto ai and and israel
44:46apac spending and where is the next big fight going to take place in which
44:51primaries or which states one coming up is is colorado the answer is uh these
44:56packs are going to spend in places where there are for mostly democrats because i
45:03think most people expect democrats at least to win the house uh democrats who are
45:07facing progressive challenges are open seats where somebody has a pro ai position somebody's anti
45:12so colorado has a couple of competitive races it has um in in the denver
45:18district and to get uh she's experiencing what happened to some candidates in illinois which
45:24is the sunrise movement uh which is a climate group and i have a story
45:27that's now doing a lot of campaigning around uh apac and data centers less less
45:32climate um it has people what they call bird dogging and going up to her
45:37and asking her about her funding for israel recording it uh targeting her now that's
45:43the sort of race that i think these packs are going to look at and
45:46say is it worth spending some money to defend somebody who's good on our issues
45:50against a progressive who's going to tear us up uh that's what happened north carolina
45:54not to expand that even more but north carolina had its primary two two weeks
45:59ago and it was really ai's interest that wanted that that saved a democrat who
46:05had a progressive challenger uh because she was on the ai democrats special committee she
46:11was not going to regular well i'm not going to give her all in politics
46:14but her opponent was running against ai and data centers they said well this is
46:17clear but we'd rather have a democrat who deals with us than one who's running
46:20against us um that will matter in california you're going to see some of the
46:26spending the one who was more pro ai won yes and the one is more
46:31pro ai won by one point uh you're going to see this in california too
46:35because of the new map drawn by democrats there in virginia if this new gerrymanders
46:40succeeds which has to be voted on april 1st same thing there there are going
46:44to be new open districts and you saw wherever there is an open seat candidates
46:49face this question should i put something on my website or have a meeting with
46:52one of these groups or sign a pledge that says i'm pro technology pro ai
46:56pro crypto if i am i might get money spent for me because you can't
47:00actually coordinate you can just say you can't go to a super PAC you're not
47:03allowed to still legally although it's not really the FEC doesn't really do anything about
47:07it can't go to a super PAC and say i'm with it with you please
47:10spend this much money here what you do is sign some forms or take some
47:16pledges that signal what your politics are or if you have a record you say
47:19look at your voting record and then put on your website it'd be really nice
47:23if somebody ran ads for us on these topic and this topic and this topic
47:26um the downside is and you saw a little bit if you're that candidate in
47:30a democratic primary you're going to get a progressive hitting you and saying this person's
47:34bought and paid for um so that is that is the risk that is the
47:37risk assessment candidates are doing is it worth getting free money if i might get
47:41accused of taking too much free money right well jave wagle where can we go
47:44to follow your reporting right a lot of really interesting stuff on the congressional side
47:48and all these elections that are coming out yeah so it's a semaphore .com i
47:52have a newsletter that comes out weekly called americana that's uh reported around the country
47:56we have other newsletters every day we have independent stories i put a lot on
47:59twitter too i mean on x i i i link to the stories but also
48:03i build out a lot of stuff on x because it's really helpful uh whatever
48:07people think of the site it's really helpful to in real time say what do
48:11people think of this get reactions and sometimes somebody comes out of the woodwork and
48:14says check out this race but the the reporting that i am gonna i could
48:19the quote i did i did the quotes i travel i put it into stories
48:22that's uh semaphore .com well thank you so much for calling this podcast i really
48:26appreciate it thank you hey i'm johnny and my physio practice is backed by combank
48:33my business account lets me run my clinic my way the business account that grows
48:37with you no doubt eligibility criteria and t's and c's apply product target market determinations
48:43can be found on the combank website now it's time for the ask me anything
48:47segment if you want to be part of the ask me anything segment email me
48:50ryan at numbers game podcast .com that's ryan at numbers floral numbers game podcast .com
48:56love getting to all your questions this one comes from chris it is a little
48:59long so chris i'm gonna abbreviate it he says you've been knocking out of the
49:02park with park with your scorched earth deep dives and interesting guests Thank you, Chris.
49:06I really, really been working hard on this podcast to try to make it something
49:09good. And I think people are starting to take notice.
49:12You were mentioning how Ohio has changed significantly over time.
49:16You write that the private sector labor unions that provided such a blue wall and
49:19support Northeast Ohio have disappeared with offshoring and automation.
49:23Hamilton County, which had a healthy balance of Republican leadership, has basically gone out of
49:29the city and into the suburbs.
49:30But it's all Democrats at this point.
49:33Anyway, your main question is, Amy Acton is a Democrat, is a formidable candidate in
49:38the sense that Gannett Papers, Cincinnati, Inquirer, Columbus Dispatch elevated her to a Fauci -esque
49:44status during COVID and continue to fawn over her.
49:47I hope that Jessica Anderson is correct in her assessment that Houston and Ramaswamy will
49:51be competent each will complement each other because I'm very concerned of the low propensity
49:56Trump voters saying this out.
49:58There's a Jesuit joke in there somewhere about why Vivek is so unlikable.
50:02He mentions it in his book, but plays fast and loose with his high school
50:05education at St. Xavier. And yeah, I don't, here's the thing about, I think the
50:13question is about, is Amy Acton as formidable or do the Republicans have a chance?
50:17It's a Democrat year. It just, it's way it's playing out.
50:21And Sherrod Brown's a very well -known name.
50:24Uh, but this is Sherrod Brown's fourth time or fifth time at bat.
50:30Um, voters do know him and they just kicked him out.
50:34And I think what John Hustead, um, he's as bland as you could possibly get.
50:41There's nothing that, I mean, I think he had a quib the other day that
50:45kind of went out, um, that didn't land.
50:48But besides that, he's been, he's very, very, very bland and he's very smart because
50:52he's making voting, uh, voter ID a big issue.
50:57He's even throwing it to the Democrats now.
51:00Um, I don't think he's very controversial and I think Sherrod Brown's just going to
51:05attack him as being a Trump supporter, but in overwhelmingly Trump state.
51:08So I, I've heard that there's polling that Sherrod's up, but not by much.
51:13At this point in Ohio, a lot of times the Democrats up, but not by
51:16much. And it seems that Sherrod is actually polling worse than Acton.
51:22Here's the thing about Acton.
51:24Yes. Acton was all about shutting down the government.
51:26Acton was all about, you know, um, all about, uh, uh, all about, you know,
51:31COVID, how she gained prominence.
51:34The thing is, is there's two major issues.
51:37Remember when I said on this podcast, all the Ohio listeners, Ramaswamy is not going
51:42to show himself much in the ads because they did.
51:47And I know this from the presidential campaign, they tested it that when he was
51:51on camera, people liked him less than when people talked about him.
51:56And in his second ad that came out, his first ad was his wife and
51:59his wife is very lovely and sounded very smart and, you know, was very compassionate
52:02and did a great job.
52:03And the second ad, his, it was somebody else also talking about him.
52:08It was not him talking about himself.
52:11And then he got on television or wherever he was.
52:14And he said, our problem is we have too many public colleges.
52:17We should condense them. Now you could say that's a really smart idea or yes,
52:22that's possibly true. Or let's like, let's look at this analytically.
52:26That's something you do once you are in office, not something you say when you
52:31are running for office, because what that means for Joe Schmo in Miami, Ohio, or,
52:38you know, in, in parts of the state that are really in not great financial
52:44shape is it means one of the biggest job providers for their local community, it
52:49may possibly go out of business because of VEC.
52:53It's not that's, you don't say something like that.
52:56Like you don't say, hey, hey, let's put kids in school all year long while
52:59you're campaigning, which is something that VEC did.
53:03Don't try to think you're smarter than the voters.
53:08Running for office is not, and excuse my language, but this is truth.
53:12Running for office is not an exercise in mental masturbation.
53:16It's not to show everyone, look how bright I am.
53:19I can think of 7 million different ideas that you have to live under.
53:23That's not the point. The point of a good candidate to run for office is
53:28to repeat what their people already feel, promote ideals that they understand.
53:35You're not trying to educate them.
53:37You don't bring up 50, we're going to launch people into space and then they're
53:41going to bring out their own energy from the sun.
53:43No, no, no. Listen, talk to them about things that they already know, things that
53:47are tangible, tangible solutions. I always tell it to candidates, tangible solutions.
53:53If you can't run on just, you know, words and phrases like hope and change
53:59or the free market or American exceptionalism, if you can't reuse that and you need
54:03actual policy solutions, run on things that people understand.
54:07Don't try to sound smart on them and make the solutions tangible.
54:10If you close your eyes and you thought of what build the wall looks like,
54:14you could think of what that tangibly looks like.
54:17Close your eyes. You can think of what Medicare for all actually looks like.
54:20It's a tangible, easy to understand, comprehensible solution.
54:25Vivek is not doing any of that right now.
54:28And that is why Amy Acton is winning.
54:31Some, I think it was Cook Political or one.
54:33these pollsters that analyzed the sailor race, moved the Ohio race from likely Republican to
54:39lean Republican, and then blamed it on the fact that Vivek is Indian.
54:43It has nothing to do with that at all.
54:46It is literally because he is making himself as unlikable as humanly possible.
54:52And to answer your question, Chris, I think that there is a world out there
54:56where Houston wins, but so does Amy Acton.
55:00I don't think they have to win as a pair.
55:02I do think there will be crossover because I think Vivek is doing everything he
55:06possibly can to turn people in these college towns and say, hey, your whole livelihood
55:11could be down the drain.
55:12We don't know. We'll see.
55:14I think this is a good idea, possibly.
55:16Telling moms, hey, guess what those summer vacations you were planning?
55:19Let's talk about having school all year long and changing the way you've done things,
55:23and you've done things for generations.
55:25He's creating instability in people's minds about the future of their state, and that's a
55:30scary thing, and he's not doing a great job at it.
55:32He still is the likeliest candidate to win.
55:34I want to emphasize it to you because Ohio is so Republican, but he's doing
55:38everything he can to lose.
55:41It is his race to lose, and he is making sure he can try to
55:45lose it. That's all. And you guys know I'm not a fan of Vivek.
55:48I'm trying to really call it balls and strikes as it is and not temper
55:52my personal feelings with my political assessment.
55:56He does also, one of the things, Vivek has a lot of union support, which
55:59Republicans usually don't have, so maybe that also will bail him out.
56:03Unions don't always vote for who their bosses support, just FYI.
56:07All right, that's this episode.
56:08I'll see you guys on Wednesday.
56:09If you like this podcast, please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,
56:13wherever you get your podcasts, and on YouTube.
56:15And if you're feeling generous, give me a five -star review.
56:17It really helps share this podcast, everybody.
56:19I will see you guys on Wednesday.
56:23Hi, I'm Lita, and my business, The Donut Mum, is backed by ComBank.
56:28When we opened, it was just me and my husband, Holly.
56:32No big team, no fancy systems.
56:34You see the big stores and think they've got people for everything.
56:38We've just got each other.
56:40But with ComBank, I know our business payments are protected.
56:43That matters because this place is everything to us.
56:47Business security baked in. No doubt.
56:50Eligibility criteria and T's and C's apply.