Ray Dalio: Our System Is in Jeopardy - Debt, AI & the Cycle That Destroyed Rome
3/3/202649 mintranscribing
0:00Ray Dalio, welcome back to the All In Podcast.
0:00Ray Dalio, welcome back to the All In Podcast.
0:00Ray Dalio, welcome back to the All In Podcast.
0:00Ray Dalio, welcome back to the All In Podcast.
0:00Ray Dalio, welcome back to the All In Podcast.
0:00Ray Dalio, welcome back to the All In Podcast.
0:02Third time's the charm. Thanks for being here.
0:02Third time's the charm. Thanks for being here.
0:02Third time's the charm. Thanks for being here.
0:02Third time's the charm. Thanks for being here.
0:02Third time's the charm. Thanks for being here.
0:02Third time's the charm. Thanks for being here.
0:05It's always a blast to be here.
0:05It's always a blast to be here.
0:05It's always a blast to be here.
0:05It's always a blast to be here.
0:05It's always a blast to be here.
0:05It's always a blast to be here.
0:06Thank you for having me.
0:06Thank you for having me.
0:06Thank you for having me.
0:06Thank you for having me.
0:06Thank you for having me.
0:06Thank you for having me.
0:07The last conversation we had was so popular and it was so timely because it
0:07The last conversation we had was so popular and it was so timely because it
0:07The last conversation we had was so popular and it was so timely because it
0:07The last conversation we had was so popular and it was so timely because it
0:07The last conversation we had was so popular and it was so timely because it
0:07The last conversation we had was so popular and it was so timely because it
0:12was just a few days actually after the inauguration of President Trump.
0:12was just a few days actually after the inauguration of President Trump.
0:12was just a few days actually after the inauguration of President Trump.
0:12was just a few days actually after the inauguration of President Trump.
0:12was just a few days actually after the inauguration of President Trump.
0:12was just a few days actually after the inauguration of President Trump.
0:17And you had provided some very kind of prescient outlooks for the administration that I
0:17And you had provided some very kind of prescient outlooks for the administration that I
0:17And you had provided some very kind of prescient outlooks for the administration that I
0:17And you had provided some very kind of prescient outlooks for the administration that I
0:17And you had provided some very kind of prescient outlooks for the administration that I
0:17And you had provided some very kind of prescient outlooks for the administration that I
0:23think we all thought would be very helpful to get on the record.
0:23think we all thought would be very helpful to get on the record.
0:23think we all thought would be very helpful to get on the record.
0:23think we all thought would be very helpful to get on the record.
0:23think we all thought would be very helpful to get on the record.
0:23think we all thought would be very helpful to get on the record.
0:26At the time, you had highlighted, and as you have been for some time, this
0:26At the time, you had highlighted, and as you have been for some time, this
0:26At the time, you had highlighted, and as you have been for some time, this
0:26At the time, you had highlighted, and as you have been for some time, this
0:26At the time, you had highlighted, and as you have been for some time, this
0:26At the time, you had highlighted, and as you have been for some time, this
0:32great debt cycle we're in, the fiscal and monetary policy issues that are driving that
0:32great debt cycle we're in, the fiscal and monetary policy issues that are driving that
0:32great debt cycle we're in, the fiscal and monetary policy issues that are driving that
0:32great debt cycle we're in, the fiscal and monetary policy issues that are driving that
0:32great debt cycle we're in, the fiscal and monetary policy issues that are driving that
0:32great debt cycle we're in, the fiscal and monetary policy issues that are driving that
0:38debt cycle, and provided some input that if we were able to cut our deficit
0:38debt cycle, and provided some input that if we were able to cut our deficit
0:38debt cycle, and provided some input that if we were able to cut our deficit
0:38debt cycle, and provided some input that if we were able to cut our deficit
0:38debt cycle, and provided some input that if we were able to cut our deficit
0:38debt cycle, and provided some input that if we were able to cut our deficit
0:46to GDP to roughly 3%, we may have a shot at a smoother transition here.
0:46to GDP to roughly 3%, we may have a shot at a smoother transition here.
0:46to GDP to roughly 3%, we may have a shot at a smoother transition here.
0:46to GDP to roughly 3%, we may have a shot at a smoother transition here.
0:46to GDP to roughly 3%, we may have a shot at a smoother transition here.
0:46to GDP to roughly 3%, we may have a shot at a smoother transition here.
0:53Today, the CBO estimates that the 2026 deficit to GDP is about 6%.
0:53Today, the CBO estimates that the 2026 deficit to GDP is about 6%.
0:53Today, the CBO estimates that the 2026 deficit to GDP is about 6%.
0:53Today, the CBO estimates that the 2026 deficit to GDP is about 6%.
0:53Today, the CBO estimates that the 2026 deficit to GDP is about 6%.
0:53Today, the CBO estimates that the 2026 deficit to GDP is about 6%.
1:06If you were building a global financial system from first principles today, you wouldn't build
1:06If you were building a global financial system from first principles today, you wouldn't build
1:06If you were building a global financial system from first principles today, you wouldn't build
1:06If you were building a global financial system from first principles today, you wouldn't build
1:06If you were building a global financial system from first principles today, you wouldn't build
1:06If you were building a global financial system from first principles today, you wouldn't build
1:11it on 50 -year -old legacy rails.
1:11it on 50 -year -old legacy rails.
1:11it on 50 -year -old legacy rails.
1:11it on 50 -year -old legacy rails.
1:11it on 50 -year -old legacy rails.
1:11it on 50 -year -old legacy rails.
1:12You'd build Airwallex. It's the single platform for global accounts, cards, and payments that treats
1:12You'd build Airwallex. It's the single platform for global accounts, cards, and payments that treats
1:12You'd build Airwallex. It's the single platform for global accounts, cards, and payments that treats
1:12You'd build Airwallex. It's the single platform for global accounts, cards, and payments that treats
1:12You'd build Airwallex. It's the single platform for global accounts, cards, and payments that treats
1:12You'd build Airwallex. It's the single platform for global accounts, cards, and payments that treats
1:18the entire world like a local market.
1:18the entire world like a local market.
1:18the entire world like a local market.
1:18the entire world like a local market.
1:18the entire world like a local market.
1:18the entire world like a local market.
1:20Stop paying the legacy tax and start building the future at airwallex .com slash all
1:20Stop paying the legacy tax and start building the future at airwallex .com slash all
1:20Stop paying the legacy tax and start building the future at airwallex .com slash all
1:20Stop paying the legacy tax and start building the future at airwallex .com slash all
1:20Stop paying the legacy tax and start building the future at airwallex .com slash all
1:20Stop paying the legacy tax and start building the future at airwallex .com slash all
1:26in. Airwallex. Build the future.
1:26in. Airwallex. Build the future.
1:26in. Airwallex. Build the future.
1:26in. Airwallex. Build the future.
1:26in. Airwallex. Build the future.
1:26in. Airwallex. Build the future.
1:28So the first question I have for you, looking back on the past year of
1:28So the first question I have for you, looking back on the past year of
1:28So the first question I have for you, looking back on the past year of
1:28So the first question I have for you, looking back on the past year of
1:28So the first question I have for you, looking back on the past year of
1:28So the first question I have for you, looking back on the past year of
1:32the administration and the actions of Congress and the economy, are we on a good
1:32the administration and the actions of Congress and the economy, are we on a good
1:32the administration and the actions of Congress and the economy, are we on a good
1:32the administration and the actions of Congress and the economy, are we on a good
1:32the administration and the actions of Congress and the economy, are we on a good
1:32the administration and the actions of Congress and the economy, are we on a good
1:39path? Are we on no different a path than we were, say, a year ago?
1:39path? Are we on no different a path than we were, say, a year ago?
1:39path? Are we on no different a path than we were, say, a year ago?
1:39path? Are we on no different a path than we were, say, a year ago?
1:39path? Are we on no different a path than we were, say, a year ago?
1:39path? Are we on no different a path than we were, say, a year ago?
1:43Are we moving too slowly?
1:43Are we moving too slowly?
1:43Are we moving too slowly?
1:43Are we moving too slowly?
1:43Are we moving too slowly?
1:43Are we moving too slowly?
1:45I've studied these big cycles in history going back 500 years, and there are five
1:45I've studied these big cycles in history going back 500 years, and there are five
1:45I've studied these big cycles in history going back 500 years, and there are five
1:45I've studied these big cycles in history going back 500 years, and there are five
1:45I've studied these big cycles in history going back 500 years, and there are five
1:45I've studied these big cycles in history going back 500 years, and there are five
1:51big forces that are intertwined to determine the answer to your question, which is there's
1:51big forces that are intertwined to determine the answer to your question, which is there's
1:51big forces that are intertwined to determine the answer to your question, which is there's
1:51big forces that are intertwined to determine the answer to your question, which is there's
1:51big forces that are intertwined to determine the answer to your question, which is there's
1:51big forces that are intertwined to determine the answer to your question, which is there's
1:57the debt -money one, and I'll take you into that in a minute.
1:57the debt -money one, and I'll take you into that in a minute.
1:57the debt -money one, and I'll take you into that in a minute.
1:57the debt -money one, and I'll take you into that in a minute.
1:57the debt -money one, and I'll take you into that in a minute.
1:57the debt -money one, and I'll take you into that in a minute.
2:01There is the domestic gaps, the wealth and values gaps that are causing irreconcilable differences
2:01There is the domestic gaps, the wealth and values gaps that are causing irreconcilable differences
2:01There is the domestic gaps, the wealth and values gaps that are causing irreconcilable differences
2:01There is the domestic gaps, the wealth and values gaps that are causing irreconcilable differences
2:01There is the domestic gaps, the wealth and values gaps that are causing irreconcilable differences
2:01There is the domestic gaps, the wealth and values gaps that are causing irreconcilable differences
2:12between the left and the right that is affecting how taxes, democracy, and everything works.
2:12between the left and the right that is affecting how taxes, democracy, and everything works.
2:12between the left and the right that is affecting how taxes, democracy, and everything works.
2:12between the left and the right that is affecting how taxes, democracy, and everything works.
2:12between the left and the right that is affecting how taxes, democracy, and everything works.
2:12between the left and the right that is affecting how taxes, democracy, and everything works.
2:20There's the international great power conflict, the classic rising of a great power, challenging existing
2:20There's the international great power conflict, the classic rising of a great power, challenging existing
2:20There's the international great power conflict, the classic rising of a great power, challenging existing
2:20There's the international great power conflict, the classic rising of a great power, challenging existing
2:20There's the international great power conflict, the classic rising of a great power, challenging existing
2:20There's the international great power conflict, the classic rising of a great power, challenging existing
2:28great power, and changing the international world order.
2:28great power, and changing the international world order.
2:28great power, and changing the international world order.
2:28great power, and changing the international world order.
2:28great power, and changing the international world order.
2:28great power, and changing the international world order.
2:33Then there's technology all through these cycles.
2:33Then there's technology all through these cycles.
2:33Then there's technology all through these cycles.
2:33Then there's technology all through these cycles.
2:33Then there's technology all through these cycles.
2:33Then there's technology all through these cycles.
2:37There have been technology. And then there's acts of nature, droughts, floods, and pandemics.
2:37There have been technology. And then there's acts of nature, droughts, floods, and pandemics.
2:37There have been technology. And then there's acts of nature, droughts, floods, and pandemics.
2:37There have been technology. And then there's acts of nature, droughts, floods, and pandemics.
2:37There have been technology. And then there's acts of nature, droughts, floods, and pandemics.
2:37There have been technology. And then there's acts of nature, droughts, floods, and pandemics.
2:42And when we think of orders, we're talking about there's always a monetary order, and
2:42And when we think of orders, we're talking about there's always a monetary order, and
2:42And when we think of orders, we're talking about there's always a monetary order, and
2:42And when we think of orders, we're talking about there's always a monetary order, and
2:42And when we think of orders, we're talking about there's always a monetary order, and
2:42And when we think of orders, we're talking about there's always a monetary order, and
2:48all monetary orders have broken down for the same reasons.
2:48all monetary orders have broken down for the same reasons.
2:48all monetary orders have broken down for the same reasons.
2:48all monetary orders have broken down for the same reasons.
2:48all monetary orders have broken down for the same reasons.
2:48all monetary orders have broken down for the same reasons.
2:52All political orders, domestic political orders, they all always change.
2:52All political orders, domestic political orders, they all always change.
2:52All political orders, domestic political orders, they all always change.
2:52All political orders, domestic political orders, they all always change.
2:52All political orders, domestic political orders, they all always change.
2:52All political orders, domestic political orders, they all always change.
2:59In the United States, less so.
2:59In the United States, less so.
2:59In the United States, less so.
2:59In the United States, less so.
2:59In the United States, less so.
2:59In the United States, less so.
3:01We have 250 years here, but they always change.
3:01We have 250 years here, but they always change.
3:01We have 250 years here, but they always change.
3:01We have 250 years here, but they always change.
3:01We have 250 years here, but they always change.
3:01We have 250 years here, but they always change.
3:05There was one civil war in there.
3:05There was one civil war in there.
3:05There was one civil war in there.
3:05There was one civil war in there.
3:05There was one civil war in there.
3:05There was one civil war in there.
3:08But internationally, they always change.
3:08But internationally, they always change.
3:08But internationally, they always change.
3:08But internationally, they always change.
3:08But internationally, they always change.
3:08But internationally, they always change.
3:11All orders change. And the international geopolitical order going from a multilateral to a unilateral
3:11All orders change. And the international geopolitical order going from a multilateral to a unilateral
3:11All orders change. And the international geopolitical order going from a multilateral to a unilateral
3:11All orders change. And the international geopolitical order going from a multilateral to a unilateral
3:11All orders change. And the international geopolitical order going from a multilateral to a unilateral
3:11All orders change. And the international geopolitical order going from a multilateral to a unilateral
3:19world order is changing, and certainly technology's changing.
3:19world order is changing, and certainly technology's changing.
3:19world order is changing, and certainly technology's changing.
3:19world order is changing, and certainly technology's changing.
3:19world order is changing, and certainly technology's changing.
3:19world order is changing, and certainly technology's changing.
3:23Okay. So getting that fact that they're all on there, now I'll go down to
3:23Okay. So getting that fact that they're all on there, now I'll go down to
3:23Okay. So getting that fact that they're all on there, now I'll go down to
3:23Okay. So getting that fact that they're all on there, now I'll go down to
3:23Okay. So getting that fact that they're all on there, now I'll go down to
3:23Okay. So getting that fact that they're all on there, now I'll go down to
3:27explain the government's finances and answer your question.
3:27explain the government's finances and answer your question.
3:27explain the government's finances and answer your question.
3:27explain the government's finances and answer your question.
3:27explain the government's finances and answer your question.
3:27explain the government's finances and answer your question.
3:30The economics of a country are basically the same economics of the economics of a
3:30The economics of a country are basically the same economics of the economics of a
3:30The economics of a country are basically the same economics of the economics of a
3:30The economics of a country are basically the same economics of the economics of a
3:30The economics of a country are basically the same economics of the economics of a
3:30The economics of a country are basically the same economics of the economics of a
3:37company or an economy. individual, except the government has a ability to print money.
3:37company or an economy. individual, except the government has a ability to print money.
3:37company or an economy. individual, except the government has a ability to print money.
3:37company or an economy. individual, except the government has a ability to print money.
3:37company or an economy. individual, except the government has a ability to print money.
3:37company or an economy. individual, except the government has a ability to print money.
3:42Look at it like a company or like your own.
3:42Look at it like a company or like your own.
3:42Look at it like a company or like your own.
3:42Look at it like a company or like your own.
3:42Look at it like a company or like your own.
3:42Look at it like a company or like your own.
3:45Basically, it's projected to spend about $7 trillion, take in about $5 trillion.
3:45Basically, it's projected to spend about $7 trillion, take in about $5 trillion.
3:45Basically, it's projected to spend about $7 trillion, take in about $5 trillion.
3:45Basically, it's projected to spend about $7 trillion, take in about $5 trillion.
3:45Basically, it's projected to spend about $7 trillion, take in about $5 trillion.
3:45Basically, it's projected to spend about $7 trillion, take in about $5 trillion.
3:52So it's running a 40 % deficit, 40 % of its spending.
3:52So it's running a 40 % deficit, 40 % of its spending.
3:52So it's running a 40 % deficit, 40 % of its spending.
3:52So it's running a 40 % deficit, 40 % of its spending.
3:52So it's running a 40 % deficit, 40 % of its spending.
3:52So it's running a 40 % deficit, 40 % of its spending.
3:57It's been running deficits for a long time.
3:57It's been running deficits for a long time.
3:57It's been running deficits for a long time.
3:57It's been running deficits for a long time.
3:57It's been running deficits for a long time.
3:57It's been running deficits for a long time.
4:00So it has a debt that is 600%, six times the amount of money that
4:00So it has a debt that is 600%, six times the amount of money that
4:00So it has a debt that is 600%, six times the amount of money that
4:00So it has a debt that is 600%, six times the amount of money that
4:00So it has a debt that is 600%, six times the amount of money that
4:00So it has a debt that is 600%, six times the amount of money that
4:07it takes in. And we can project that number.
4:07it takes in. And we can project that number.
4:07it takes in. And we can project that number.
4:07it takes in. And we can project that number.
4:07it takes in. And we can project that number.
4:07it takes in. And we can project that number.
4:11The problem with debt cycles, and you can see them transpire, they're almost like the
4:11The problem with debt cycles, and you can see them transpire, they're almost like the
4:11The problem with debt cycles, and you can see them transpire, they're almost like the
4:11The problem with debt cycles, and you can see them transpire, they're almost like the
4:11The problem with debt cycles, and you can see them transpire, they're almost like the
4:11The problem with debt cycles, and you can see them transpire, they're almost like the
4:20circulatory system of the body.
4:20circulatory system of the body.
4:20circulatory system of the body.
4:20circulatory system of the body.
4:20circulatory system of the body.
4:20circulatory system of the body.
4:24The capital markets bring credit to different parts of the economy.
4:24The capital markets bring credit to different parts of the economy.
4:24The capital markets bring credit to different parts of the economy.
4:24The capital markets bring credit to different parts of the economy.
4:24The capital markets bring credit to different parts of the economy.
4:24The capital markets bring credit to different parts of the economy.
4:29And if that credit is used to be productive and produces an income that pays
4:29And if that credit is used to be productive and produces an income that pays
4:29And if that credit is used to be productive and produces an income that pays
4:29And if that credit is used to be productive and produces an income that pays
4:29And if that credit is used to be productive and produces an income that pays
4:29And if that credit is used to be productive and produces an income that pays
4:36for the debt service, it's a healthy process.
4:36for the debt service, it's a healthy process.
4:36for the debt service, it's a healthy process.
4:36for the debt service, it's a healthy process.
4:36for the debt service, it's a healthy process.
4:36for the debt service, it's a healthy process.
4:38But what happens is that if the debt service grows relative to the income, because
4:38But what happens is that if the debt service grows relative to the income, because
4:38But what happens is that if the debt service grows relative to the income, because
4:38But what happens is that if the debt service grows relative to the income, because
4:38But what happens is that if the debt service grows relative to the income, because
4:38But what happens is that if the debt service grows relative to the income, because
4:49it's not paying for it, it's like a plaque in the system growing up and
4:49it's not paying for it, it's like a plaque in the system growing up and
4:49it's not paying for it, it's like a plaque in the system growing up and
4:49it's not paying for it, it's like a plaque in the system growing up and
4:49it's not paying for it, it's like a plaque in the system growing up and
4:49it's not paying for it, it's like a plaque in the system growing up and
4:55it squeezes out spending. And so we now have that $2 trillion deficit.
4:55it squeezes out spending. And so we now have that $2 trillion deficit.
4:55it squeezes out spending. And so we now have that $2 trillion deficit.
4:55it squeezes out spending. And so we now have that $2 trillion deficit.
4:55it squeezes out spending. And so we now have that $2 trillion deficit.
4:55it squeezes out spending. And so we now have that $2 trillion deficit.
5:00Half of that is interest payments.
5:00Half of that is interest payments.
5:00Half of that is interest payments.
5:00Half of that is interest payments.
5:00Half of that is interest payments.
5:00Half of that is interest payments.
5:04Plus, we have to roll over $9 trillion of debt that has been accumulated and
5:04Plus, we have to roll over $9 trillion of debt that has been accumulated and
5:04Plus, we have to roll over $9 trillion of debt that has been accumulated and
5:04Plus, we have to roll over $9 trillion of debt that has been accumulated and
5:04Plus, we have to roll over $9 trillion of debt that has been accumulated and
5:04Plus, we have to roll over $9 trillion of debt that has been accumulated and
5:11is maturing. Okay. So now if you were to look at a company like that
5:11is maturing. Okay. So now if you were to look at a company like that
5:11is maturing. Okay. So now if you were to look at a company like that
5:11is maturing. Okay. So now if you were to look at a company like that
5:11is maturing. Okay. So now if you were to look at a company like that
5:11is maturing. Okay. So now if you were to look at a company like that
5:15or an individual like that, you have that problem.
5:15or an individual like that, you have that problem.
5:15or an individual like that, you have that problem.
5:15or an individual like that, you have that problem.
5:15or an individual like that, you have that problem.
5:15or an individual like that, you have that problem.
5:19So as a handy number, 3 % of GDP would sort of stabilize the situation.
5:19So as a handy number, 3 % of GDP would sort of stabilize the situation.
5:19So as a handy number, 3 % of GDP would sort of stabilize the situation.
5:19So as a handy number, 3 % of GDP would sort of stabilize the situation.
5:19So as a handy number, 3 % of GDP would sort of stabilize the situation.
5:19So as a handy number, 3 % of GDP would sort of stabilize the situation.
5:27Very unhealthy condition. It's not just unhealthy because it's squeezing out those spendings, but also
5:27Very unhealthy condition. It's not just unhealthy because it's squeezing out those spendings, but also
5:27Very unhealthy condition. It's not just unhealthy because it's squeezing out those spendings, but also
5:27Very unhealthy condition. It's not just unhealthy because it's squeezing out those spendings, but also
5:27Very unhealthy condition. It's not just unhealthy because it's squeezing out those spendings, but also
5:27Very unhealthy condition. It's not just unhealthy because it's squeezing out those spendings, but also
5:34because there's a supply and a demand.
5:34because there's a supply and a demand.
5:34because there's a supply and a demand.
5:34because there's a supply and a demand.
5:34because there's a supply and a demand.
5:34because there's a supply and a demand.
5:37In other words, you have to roll over the $9 trillion of debt that's coming
5:37In other words, you have to roll over the $9 trillion of debt that's coming
5:37In other words, you have to roll over the $9 trillion of debt that's coming
5:37In other words, you have to roll over the $9 trillion of debt that's coming
5:37In other words, you have to roll over the $9 trillion of debt that's coming
5:37In other words, you have to roll over the $9 trillion of debt that's coming
5:42due, and you have to sell $2 trillion more, something like that.
5:42due, and you have to sell $2 trillion more, something like that.
5:42due, and you have to sell $2 trillion more, something like that.
5:42due, and you have to sell $2 trillion more, something like that.
5:42due, and you have to sell $2 trillion more, something like that.
5:42due, and you have to sell $2 trillion more, something like that.
5:48Okay. So now you go to the buyers.
5:48Okay. So now you go to the buyers.
5:48Okay. So now you go to the buyers.
5:48Okay. So now you go to the buyers.
5:48Okay. So now you go to the buyers.
5:48Okay. So now you go to the buyers.
5:51And the buyers, who are the buyers?
5:51And the buyers, who are the buyers?
5:51And the buyers, who are the buyers?
5:51And the buyers, who are the buyers?
5:51And the buyers, who are the buyers?
5:51And the buyers, who are the buyers?
5:54There are some domestic buyers and their foreign buyers, about a third of foreign buyers.
5:54There are some domestic buyers and their foreign buyers, about a third of foreign buyers.
5:54There are some domestic buyers and their foreign buyers, about a third of foreign buyers.
5:54There are some domestic buyers and their foreign buyers, about a third of foreign buyers.
5:54There are some domestic buyers and their foreign buyers, about a third of foreign buyers.
5:54There are some domestic buyers and their foreign buyers, about a third of foreign buyers.
5:59And now it's a riskier situation from their point of view.
5:59And now it's a riskier situation from their point of view.
5:59And now it's a riskier situation from their point of view.
5:59And now it's a riskier situation from their point of view.
5:59And now it's a riskier situation from their point of view.
5:59And now it's a riskier situation from their point of view.
6:03It's riskier. First of all, it's a lot to acquire.
6:03It's riskier. First of all, it's a lot to acquire.
6:03It's riskier. First of all, it's a lot to acquire.
6:03It's riskier. First of all, it's a lot to acquire.
6:03It's riskier. First of all, it's a lot to acquire.
6:03It's riskier. First of all, it's a lot to acquire.
6:08Dollar -denominated debt is already a large percentage of their portfolio, larger than it would
6:08Dollar -denominated debt is already a large percentage of their portfolio, larger than it would
6:08Dollar -denominated debt is already a large percentage of their portfolio, larger than it would
6:08Dollar -denominated debt is already a large percentage of their portfolio, larger than it would
6:08Dollar -denominated debt is already a large percentage of their portfolio, larger than it would
6:08Dollar -denominated debt is already a large percentage of their portfolio, larger than it would
6:15be if just decided on a prudent basis.
6:15be if just decided on a prudent basis.
6:15be if just decided on a prudent basis.
6:15be if just decided on a prudent basis.
6:15be if just decided on a prudent basis.
6:15be if just decided on a prudent basis.
6:18But also, we have geopolitical risks that also extend to possibly the risks that the
6:18But also, we have geopolitical risks that also extend to possibly the risks that the
6:18But also, we have geopolitical risks that also extend to possibly the risks that the
6:18But also, we have geopolitical risks that also extend to possibly the risks that the
6:18But also, we have geopolitical risks that also extend to possibly the risks that the
6:18But also, we have geopolitical risks that also extend to possibly the risks that the
6:29debtor and the creditor will have a conflict.
6:29debtor and the creditor will have a conflict.
6:29debtor and the creditor will have a conflict.
6:29debtor and the creditor will have a conflict.
6:29debtor and the creditor will have a conflict.
6:29debtor and the creditor will have a conflict.
6:32You can imagine that with China.
6:32You can imagine that with China.
6:32You can imagine that with China.
6:32You can imagine that with China.
6:32You can imagine that with China.
6:32You can imagine that with China.
6:35You can imagine that with Europe, even.
6:35You can imagine that with Europe, even.
6:35You can imagine that with Europe, even.
6:35You can imagine that with Europe, even.
6:35You can imagine that with Europe, even.
6:35You can imagine that with Europe, even.
6:38And, you know, Europeans could wonder whether they will get sanctioned.
6:38And, you know, Europeans could wonder whether they will get sanctioned.
6:38And, you know, Europeans could wonder whether they will get sanctioned.
6:38And, you know, Europeans could wonder whether they will get sanctioned.
6:38And, you know, Europeans could wonder whether they will get sanctioned.
6:38And, you know, Europeans could wonder whether they will get sanctioned.
6:43In other words, the debt service payments might not be made as a sanction.
6:43In other words, the debt service payments might not be made as a sanction.
6:43In other words, the debt service payments might not be made as a sanction.
6:43In other words, the debt service payments might not be made as a sanction.
6:43In other words, the debt service payments might not be made as a sanction.
6:43In other words, the debt service payments might not be made as a sanction.
6:47And the United States has to worry about whether it's going to bring in that
6:47And the United States has to worry about whether it's going to bring in that
6:47And the United States has to worry about whether it's going to bring in that
6:47And the United States has to worry about whether it's going to bring in that
6:47And the United States has to worry about whether it's going to bring in that
6:47And the United States has to worry about whether it's going to bring in that
6:51money. Now, the things that I'm describing have happened repeatedly through history.
6:51money. Now, the things that I'm describing have happened repeatedly through history.
6:51money. Now, the things that I'm describing have happened repeatedly through history.
6:51money. Now, the things that I'm describing have happened repeatedly through history.
6:51money. Now, the things that I'm describing have happened repeatedly through history.
6:51money. Now, the things that I'm describing have happened repeatedly through history.
6:57So in other words, I'm not just making this stuff up.
6:57So in other words, I'm not just making this stuff up.
6:57So in other words, I'm not just making this stuff up.
6:57So in other words, I'm not just making this stuff up.
6:57So in other words, I'm not just making this stuff up.
6:57So in other words, I'm not just making this stuff up.
7:01If you were to see, particularly, you know, in the 1929 to 45 period, you
7:01If you were to see, particularly, you know, in the 1929 to 45 period, you
7:01If you were to see, particularly, you know, in the 1929 to 45 period, you
7:01If you were to see, particularly, you know, in the 1929 to 45 period, you
7:01If you were to see, particularly, you know, in the 1929 to 45 period, you
7:01If you were to see, particularly, you know, in the 1929 to 45 period, you
7:08saw this dynamic. You saw it before.
7:08saw this dynamic. You saw it before.
7:08saw this dynamic. You saw it before.
7:08saw this dynamic. You saw it before.
7:08saw this dynamic. You saw it before.
7:08saw this dynamic. You saw it before.
7:11So there was this financial piece, which in and of itself is not healthy for
7:11So there was this financial piece, which in and of itself is not healthy for
7:11So there was this financial piece, which in and of itself is not healthy for
7:11So there was this financial piece, which in and of itself is not healthy for
7:11So there was this financial piece, which in and of itself is not healthy for
7:11So there was this financial piece, which in and of itself is not healthy for
7:16the U. West government. And it's but it's also problematic because of the other factors
7:16the U. West government. And it's but it's also problematic because of the other factors
7:16the U. West government. And it's but it's also problematic because of the other factors
7:16the U. West government. And it's but it's also problematic because of the other factors
7:16the U. West government. And it's but it's also problematic because of the other factors
7:16the U. West government. And it's but it's also problematic because of the other factors
7:24compounding the problem. You highlighted this problem.
7:24compounding the problem. You highlighted this problem.
7:24compounding the problem. You highlighted this problem.
7:24compounding the problem. You highlighted this problem.
7:24compounding the problem. You highlighted this problem.
7:24compounding the problem. You highlighted this problem.
7:29You provided a diagnosis that if we could get to 3%, we could soften the
7:29You provided a diagnosis that if we could get to 3%, we could soften the
7:29You provided a diagnosis that if we could get to 3%, we could soften the
7:29You provided a diagnosis that if we could get to 3%, we could soften the
7:29You provided a diagnosis that if we could get to 3%, we could soften the
7:29You provided a diagnosis that if we could get to 3%, we could soften the
7:34effects. But it hasn't happened.
7:34effects. But it hasn't happened.
7:34effects. But it hasn't happened.
7:34effects. But it hasn't happened.
7:34effects. But it hasn't happened.
7:34effects. But it hasn't happened.
7:36We were all very hopeful last year around this time when Elon Musk decided to
7:36We were all very hopeful last year around this time when Elon Musk decided to
7:36We were all very hopeful last year around this time when Elon Musk decided to
7:36We were all very hopeful last year around this time when Elon Musk decided to
7:36We were all very hopeful last year around this time when Elon Musk decided to
7:36We were all very hopeful last year around this time when Elon Musk decided to
7:42lead Doge, the Department of Government Efficiency, he was going to go in and there
7:42lead Doge, the Department of Government Efficiency, he was going to go in and there
7:42lead Doge, the Department of Government Efficiency, he was going to go in and there
7:42lead Doge, the Department of Government Efficiency, he was going to go in and there
7:42lead Doge, the Department of Government Efficiency, he was going to go in and there
7:42lead Doge, the Department of Government Efficiency, he was going to go in and there
7:46were going to be these kind of big sweeping changes to reduce government spending, find
7:46were going to be these kind of big sweeping changes to reduce government spending, find
7:46were going to be these kind of big sweeping changes to reduce government spending, find
7:46were going to be these kind of big sweeping changes to reduce government spending, find
7:46were going to be these kind of big sweeping changes to reduce government spending, find
7:46were going to be these kind of big sweeping changes to reduce government spending, find
7:51fraud, waste and abuse and so on.
7:51fraud, waste and abuse and so on.
7:51fraud, waste and abuse and so on.
7:51fraud, waste and abuse and so on.
7:51fraud, waste and abuse and so on.
7:51fraud, waste and abuse and so on.
7:53Did Doge fail? Because the actions that were taken were wrong?
7:53Did Doge fail? Because the actions that were taken were wrong?
7:53Did Doge fail? Because the actions that were taken were wrong?
7:53Did Doge fail? Because the actions that were taken were wrong?
7:53Did Doge fail? Because the actions that were taken were wrong?
7:53Did Doge fail? Because the actions that were taken were wrong?
8:00Or did Doge fail because the system itself cannot be changed at this point in
8:00Or did Doge fail because the system itself cannot be changed at this point in
8:00Or did Doge fail because the system itself cannot be changed at this point in
8:00Or did Doge fail because the system itself cannot be changed at this point in
8:00Or did Doge fail because the system itself cannot be changed at this point in
8:00Or did Doge fail because the system itself cannot be changed at this point in
8:03the cycle, that there's too much capital flowing, the economy is too dependent on it,
8:03the cycle, that there's too much capital flowing, the economy is too dependent on it,
8:03the cycle, that there's too much capital flowing, the economy is too dependent on it,
8:03the cycle, that there's too much capital flowing, the economy is too dependent on it,
8:03the cycle, that there's too much capital flowing, the economy is too dependent on it,
8:03the cycle, that there's too much capital flowing, the economy is too dependent on it,
8:08there are too many individuals and businesses that are dependent on it.
8:08there are too many individuals and businesses that are dependent on it.
8:08there are too many individuals and businesses that are dependent on it.
8:08there are too many individuals and businesses that are dependent on it.
8:08there are too many individuals and businesses that are dependent on it.
8:08there are too many individuals and businesses that are dependent on it.
8:11And it's structurally impossible to pull our way out of it.
8:11And it's structurally impossible to pull our way out of it.
8:11And it's structurally impossible to pull our way out of it.
8:11And it's structurally impossible to pull our way out of it.
8:11And it's structurally impossible to pull our way out of it.
8:11And it's structurally impossible to pull our way out of it.
8:14I mean, does Doge tell us something about what's possible at this stage?
8:14I mean, does Doge tell us something about what's possible at this stage?
8:14I mean, does Doge tell us something about what's possible at this stage?
8:14I mean, does Doge tell us something about what's possible at this stage?
8:14I mean, does Doge tell us something about what's possible at this stage?
8:14I mean, does Doge tell us something about what's possible at this stage?
8:18Yeah, you're talking about taking an inefficient government and making it efficient.
8:18Yeah, you're talking about taking an inefficient government and making it efficient.
8:18Yeah, you're talking about taking an inefficient government and making it efficient.
8:18Yeah, you're talking about taking an inefficient government and making it efficient.
8:18Yeah, you're talking about taking an inefficient government and making it efficient.
8:18Yeah, you're talking about taking an inefficient government and making it efficient.
8:26Okay. And having to do it quick, because there are elections and if people don't
8:26Okay. And having to do it quick, because there are elections and if people don't
8:26Okay. And having to do it quick, because there are elections and if people don't
8:26Okay. And having to do it quick, because there are elections and if people don't
8:26Okay. And having to do it quick, because there are elections and if people don't
8:26Okay. And having to do it quick, because there are elections and if people don't
8:31like it, then, you know, you lose your mandate.
8:31like it, then, you know, you lose your mandate.
8:31like it, then, you know, you lose your mandate.
8:31like it, then, you know, you lose your mandate.
8:31like it, then, you know, you lose your mandate.
8:31like it, then, you know, you lose your mandate.
8:35And in a society in which no matter what you do, you're criticized and torn
8:35And in a society in which no matter what you do, you're criticized and torn
8:35And in a society in which no matter what you do, you're criticized and torn
8:35And in a society in which no matter what you do, you're criticized and torn
8:35And in a society in which no matter what you do, you're criticized and torn
8:35And in a society in which no matter what you do, you're criticized and torn
8:42down. So, you know, we have the fact of the question of does democracy and
8:42down. So, you know, we have the fact of the question of does democracy and
8:42down. So, you know, we have the fact of the question of does democracy and
8:42down. So, you know, we have the fact of the question of does democracy and
8:42down. So, you know, we have the fact of the question of does democracy and
8:42down. So, you know, we have the fact of the question of does democracy and
8:48our system lend itself toward the sort of executive leadership that both makes it efficient
8:48our system lend itself toward the sort of executive leadership that both makes it efficient
8:48our system lend itself toward the sort of executive leadership that both makes it efficient
8:48our system lend itself toward the sort of executive leadership that both makes it efficient
8:48our system lend itself toward the sort of executive leadership that both makes it efficient
8:48our system lend itself toward the sort of executive leadership that both makes it efficient
8:57and makes it acceptable for all people?
8:57and makes it acceptable for all people?
8:57and makes it acceptable for all people?
8:57and makes it acceptable for all people?
8:57and makes it acceptable for all people?
8:57and makes it acceptable for all people?
9:01You know, there was a lot of cutbacks, you know, things like school lunch programs
9:01You know, there was a lot of cutbacks, you know, things like school lunch programs
9:01You know, there was a lot of cutbacks, you know, things like school lunch programs
9:01You know, there was a lot of cutbacks, you know, things like school lunch programs
9:01You know, there was a lot of cutbacks, you know, things like school lunch programs
9:01You know, there was a lot of cutbacks, you know, things like school lunch programs
9:08and things, you know, and then trying to do it surgically.
9:08and things, you know, and then trying to do it surgically.
9:08and things, you know, and then trying to do it surgically.
9:08and things, you know, and then trying to do it surgically.
9:08and things, you know, and then trying to do it surgically.
9:08and things, you know, and then trying to do it surgically.
9:12So, it's how do you do that effectively, quickly, in a manner that doesn't cause
9:12So, it's how do you do that effectively, quickly, in a manner that doesn't cause
9:12So, it's how do you do that effectively, quickly, in a manner that doesn't cause
9:12So, it's how do you do that effectively, quickly, in a manner that doesn't cause
9:12So, it's how do you do that effectively, quickly, in a manner that doesn't cause
9:12So, it's how do you do that effectively, quickly, in a manner that doesn't cause
9:23so much controversy that the government falls?
9:23so much controversy that the government falls?
9:23so much controversy that the government falls?
9:23so much controversy that the government falls?
9:23so much controversy that the government falls?
9:23so much controversy that the government falls?
9:27So, if you look at history, that's why I deal with the political.
9:27So, if you look at history, that's why I deal with the political.
9:27So, if you look at history, that's why I deal with the political.
9:27So, if you look at history, that's why I deal with the political.
9:27So, if you look at history, that's why I deal with the political.
9:27So, if you look at history, that's why I deal with the political.
9:32If you deal with history, and you deal just even common sense, think, you know,
9:32If you deal with history, and you deal just even common sense, think, you know,
9:32If you deal with history, and you deal just even common sense, think, you know,
9:32If you deal with history, and you deal just even common sense, think, you know,
9:32If you deal with history, and you deal just even common sense, think, you know,
9:32If you deal with history, and you deal just even common sense, think, you know,
9:37like, are you going to have the executive leadership that's going to be able to
9:37like, are you going to have the executive leadership that's going to be able to
9:37like, are you going to have the executive leadership that's going to be able to
9:37like, are you going to have the executive leadership that's going to be able to
9:37like, are you going to have the executive leadership that's going to be able to
9:37like, are you going to have the executive leadership that's going to be able to
9:42make this satisfactory with most people, you know, and do that quickly?
9:42make this satisfactory with most people, you know, and do that quickly?
9:42make this satisfactory with most people, you know, and do that quickly?
9:42make this satisfactory with most people, you know, and do that quickly?
9:42make this satisfactory with most people, you know, and do that quickly?
9:42make this satisfactory with most people, you know, and do that quickly?
9:47I think that's a hell of a trick to pull off.
9:47I think that's a hell of a trick to pull off.
9:47I think that's a hell of a trick to pull off.
9:47I think that's a hell of a trick to pull off.
9:47I think that's a hell of a trick to pull off.
9:47I think that's a hell of a trick to pull off.
9:54Right. So, it might just be structurally, it's a little difficult at this stage.
9:54Right. So, it might just be structurally, it's a little difficult at this stage.
9:54Right. So, it might just be structurally, it's a little difficult at this stage.
9:54Right. So, it might just be structurally, it's a little difficult at this stage.
9:54Right. So, it might just be structurally, it's a little difficult at this stage.
9:54Right. So, it might just be structurally, it's a little difficult at this stage.
9:57What an understatement. Structurally, a little difficult at this stage.
9:57What an understatement. Structurally, a little difficult at this stage.
9:57What an understatement. Structurally, a little difficult at this stage.
9:57What an understatement. Structurally, a little difficult at this stage.
9:57What an understatement. Structurally, a little difficult at this stage.
9:57What an understatement. Structurally, a little difficult at this stage.
10:02Yeah. Well, there was another big news story recently that there may be quite a
10:02Yeah. Well, there was another big news story recently that there may be quite a
10:02Yeah. Well, there was another big news story recently that there may be quite a
10:02Yeah. Well, there was another big news story recently that there may be quite a
10:02Yeah. Well, there was another big news story recently that there may be quite a
10:02Yeah. Well, there was another big news story recently that there may be quite a
10:07lot of fraud going on with public dollars in Minnesota, that there are these daycares
10:07lot of fraud going on with public dollars in Minnesota, that there are these daycares
10:07lot of fraud going on with public dollars in Minnesota, that there are these daycares
10:07lot of fraud going on with public dollars in Minnesota, that there are these daycares
10:07lot of fraud going on with public dollars in Minnesota, that there are these daycares
10:07lot of fraud going on with public dollars in Minnesota, that there are these daycares
10:12that don't exist and billions of dollars are flowing to individuals to run these daycares.
10:12that don't exist and billions of dollars are flowing to individuals to run these daycares.
10:12that don't exist and billions of dollars are flowing to individuals to run these daycares.
10:12that don't exist and billions of dollars are flowing to individuals to run these daycares.
10:12that don't exist and billions of dollars are flowing to individuals to run these daycares.
10:12that don't exist and billions of dollars are flowing to individuals to run these daycares.
10:16And now there's a lot of this sort of citizen journalism going on across the
10:16And now there's a lot of this sort of citizen journalism going on across the
10:16And now there's a lot of this sort of citizen journalism going on across the
10:16And now there's a lot of this sort of citizen journalism going on across the
10:16And now there's a lot of this sort of citizen journalism going on across the
10:16And now there's a lot of this sort of citizen journalism going on across the
10:20country, that federal spending is actually being fraudulently abused.
10:20country, that federal spending is actually being fraudulently abused.
10:20country, that federal spending is actually being fraudulently abused.
10:20country, that federal spending is actually being fraudulently abused.
10:20country, that federal spending is actually being fraudulently abused.
10:20country, that federal spending is actually being fraudulently abused.
10:28Do you think that this is a symptom of this stage of the cycle?
10:28Do you think that this is a symptom of this stage of the cycle?
10:28Do you think that this is a symptom of this stage of the cycle?
10:28Do you think that this is a symptom of this stage of the cycle?
10:28Do you think that this is a symptom of this stage of the cycle?
10:28Do you think that this is a symptom of this stage of the cycle?
10:31What's your view on how this relates to this problem that we're generally kind of
10:31What's your view on how this relates to this problem that we're generally kind of
10:31What's your view on how this relates to this problem that we're generally kind of
10:31What's your view on how this relates to this problem that we're generally kind of
10:31What's your view on how this relates to this problem that we're generally kind of
10:31What's your view on how this relates to this problem that we're generally kind of
10:36talking about? Yeah, it's both the stage of the cycle.
10:36talking about? Yeah, it's both the stage of the cycle.
10:36talking about? Yeah, it's both the stage of the cycle.
10:36talking about? Yeah, it's both the stage of the cycle.
10:36talking about? Yeah, it's both the stage of the cycle.
10:36talking about? Yeah, it's both the stage of the cycle.
10:39And if you're going to have something well managed, are you going to have the
10:39And if you're going to have something well managed, are you going to have the
10:39And if you're going to have something well managed, are you going to have the
10:39And if you're going to have something well managed, are you going to have the
10:39And if you're going to have something well managed, are you going to have the
10:39And if you're going to have something well managed, are you going to have the
10:43government well manage it? I mean, how well managed, you know, go to the Department
10:43government well manage it? I mean, how well managed, you know, go to the Department
10:43government well manage it? I mean, how well managed, you know, go to the Department
10:43government well manage it? I mean, how well managed, you know, go to the Department
10:43government well manage it? I mean, how well managed, you know, go to the Department
10:43government well manage it? I mean, how well managed, you know, go to the Department
10:48of Motor Vehicles for your...
10:48of Motor Vehicles for your...
10:48of Motor Vehicles for your...
10:48of Motor Vehicles for your...
10:48of Motor Vehicles for your...
10:48of Motor Vehicles for your...
10:50It's so big and complex and such...
10:50It's so big and complex and such...
10:50It's so big and complex and such...
10:50It's so big and complex and such...
10:50It's so big and complex and such...
10:50It's so big and complex and such...
10:56you know, such a mess.
10:56you know, such a mess.
10:56you know, such a mess.
10:56you know, such a mess.
10:56you know, such a mess.
10:56you know, such a mess.
10:58Like, you know, when you think, is this a surprise to you that there's all
10:58Like, you know, when you think, is this a surprise to you that there's all
10:58Like, you know, when you think, is this a surprise to you that there's all
10:58Like, you know, when you think, is this a surprise to you that there's all
10:58Like, you know, when you think, is this a surprise to you that there's all
10:58Like, you know, when you think, is this a surprise to you that there's all
11:06of this stuff going on all over the place in terms of inefficiency?
11:06of this stuff going on all over the place in terms of inefficiency?
11:06of this stuff going on all over the place in terms of inefficiency?
11:06of this stuff going on all over the place in terms of inefficiency?
11:06of this stuff going on all over the place in terms of inefficiency?
11:06of this stuff going on all over the place in terms of inefficiency?
11:10Is that a surprise to you?
11:10Is that a surprise to you?
11:10Is that a surprise to you?
11:10Is that a surprise to you?
11:10Is that a surprise to you?
11:10Is that a surprise to you?
11:12No. But, you know, I guess the question is, are people waking up to this?
11:12No. But, you know, I guess the question is, are people waking up to this?
11:12No. But, you know, I guess the question is, are people waking up to this?
11:12No. But, you know, I guess the question is, are people waking up to this?
11:12No. But, you know, I guess the question is, are people waking up to this?
11:12No. But, you know, I guess the question is, are people waking up to this?
11:17Because last time we spoke, you highlighted that a piece of your portfolio was in
11:17Because last time we spoke, you highlighted that a piece of your portfolio was in
11:17Because last time we spoke, you highlighted that a piece of your portfolio was in
11:17Because last time we spoke, you highlighted that a piece of your portfolio was in
11:17Because last time we spoke, you highlighted that a piece of your portfolio was in
11:17Because last time we spoke, you highlighted that a piece of your portfolio was in
11:23gold. You had invested quite a bit in gold.
11:23gold. You had invested quite a bit in gold.
11:23gold. You had invested quite a bit in gold.
11:23gold. You had invested quite a bit in gold.
11:23gold. You had invested quite a bit in gold.
11:23gold. You had invested quite a bit in gold.
11:26Since we spoke, I think gold has climbed from 2 ,900 an ounce to 5
11:26Since we spoke, I think gold has climbed from 2 ,900 an ounce to 5
11:26Since we spoke, I think gold has climbed from 2 ,900 an ounce to 5
11:26Since we spoke, I think gold has climbed from 2 ,900 an ounce to 5
11:26Since we spoke, I think gold has climbed from 2 ,900 an ounce to 5
11:26Since we spoke, I think gold has climbed from 2 ,900 an ounce to 5
11:30,200 an ounce. What has happened with gold over the last year?
11:30,200 an ounce. What has happened with gold over the last year?
11:30,200 an ounce. What has happened with gold over the last year?
11:30,200 an ounce. What has happened with gold over the last year?
11:30,200 an ounce. What has happened with gold over the last year?
11:30,200 an ounce. What has happened with gold over the last year?
11:34Is it that markets are waking up to the point in the cycle that we're
11:34Is it that markets are waking up to the point in the cycle that we're
11:34Is it that markets are waking up to the point in the cycle that we're
11:34Is it that markets are waking up to the point in the cycle that we're
11:34Is it that markets are waking up to the point in the cycle that we're
11:34Is it that markets are waking up to the point in the cycle that we're
11:38in that you've been highlighting for a number of years at this point?
11:38in that you've been highlighting for a number of years at this point?
11:38in that you've been highlighting for a number of years at this point?
11:38in that you've been highlighting for a number of years at this point?
11:38in that you've been highlighting for a number of years at this point?
11:38in that you've been highlighting for a number of years at this point?
11:41Or is it because China is structurally abandoning the US dollar and treasuries and moving
11:41Or is it because China is structurally abandoning the US dollar and treasuries and moving
11:41Or is it because China is structurally abandoning the US dollar and treasuries and moving
11:41Or is it because China is structurally abandoning the US dollar and treasuries and moving
11:41Or is it because China is structurally abandoning the US dollar and treasuries and moving
11:41Or is it because China is structurally abandoning the US dollar and treasuries and moving
11:46more into gold and other central banks are moving into gold?
11:46more into gold and other central banks are moving into gold?
11:46more into gold and other central banks are moving into gold?
11:46more into gold and other central banks are moving into gold?
11:46more into gold and other central banks are moving into gold?
11:46more into gold and other central banks are moving into gold?
11:49Is it because individual speculators and market participants are getting bubbly with gold?
11:49Is it because individual speculators and market participants are getting bubbly with gold?
11:49Is it because individual speculators and market participants are getting bubbly with gold?
11:49Is it because individual speculators and market participants are getting bubbly with gold?
11:49Is it because individual speculators and market participants are getting bubbly with gold?
11:49Is it because individual speculators and market participants are getting bubbly with gold?
11:56What's your view on what's gone on with gold and how it relates to the
11:56What's your view on what's gone on with gold and how it relates to the
11:56What's your view on what's gone on with gold and how it relates to the
11:56What's your view on what's gone on with gold and how it relates to the
11:56What's your view on what's gone on with gold and how it relates to the
11:56What's your view on what's gone on with gold and how it relates to the
11:59market's acknowledgement of the stage that we're in?
11:59market's acknowledgement of the stage that we're in?
11:59market's acknowledgement of the stage that we're in?
11:59market's acknowledgement of the stage that we're in?
11:59market's acknowledgement of the stage that we're in?
11:59market's acknowledgement of the stage that we're in?
12:01It's the big cycle. And what you have to understand is that gold is not
12:01It's the big cycle. And what you have to understand is that gold is not
12:01It's the big cycle. And what you have to understand is that gold is not
12:01It's the big cycle. And what you have to understand is that gold is not
12:01It's the big cycle. And what you have to understand is that gold is not
12:01It's the big cycle. And what you have to understand is that gold is not
12:08a precious metal that's speculated on, like most people have come to think of it
12:08a precious metal that's speculated on, like most people have come to think of it
12:08a precious metal that's speculated on, like most people have come to think of it
12:08a precious metal that's speculated on, like most people have come to think of it
12:08a precious metal that's speculated on, like most people have come to think of it
12:08a precious metal that's speculated on, like most people have come to think of it
12:16as. It is the most established money that it's the second largest reserve currency that
12:16as. It is the most established money that it's the second largest reserve currency that
12:16as. It is the most established money that it's the second largest reserve currency that
12:16as. It is the most established money that it's the second largest reserve currency that
12:16as. It is the most established money that it's the second largest reserve currency that
12:16as. It is the most established money that it's the second largest reserve currency that
12:25central banks hold. And so what we've seen is for various reasons that I pretty
12:25central banks hold. And so what we've seen is for various reasons that I pretty
12:25central banks hold. And so what we've seen is for various reasons that I pretty
12:25central banks hold. And so what we've seen is for various reasons that I pretty
12:25central banks hold. And so what we've seen is for various reasons that I pretty
12:25central banks hold. And so what we've seen is for various reasons that I pretty
12:32much covered, the economic, the supply demand, the political, the geopolitical, for those reasons, central
12:32much covered, the economic, the supply demand, the political, the geopolitical, for those reasons, central
12:32much covered, the economic, the supply demand, the political, the geopolitical, for those reasons, central
12:32much covered, the economic, the supply demand, the political, the geopolitical, for those reasons, central
12:32much covered, the economic, the supply demand, the political, the geopolitical, for those reasons, central
12:32much covered, the economic, the supply demand, the political, the geopolitical, for those reasons, central
12:40banks themselves have acquired gold to build that up.
12:40banks themselves have acquired gold to build that up.
12:40banks themselves have acquired gold to build that up.
12:40banks themselves have acquired gold to build that up.
12:40banks themselves have acquired gold to build that up.
12:40banks themselves have acquired gold to build that up.
12:46And individuals and others are looking for an alternative money.
12:46And individuals and others are looking for an alternative money.
12:46And individuals and others are looking for an alternative money.
12:46And individuals and others are looking for an alternative money.
12:46And individuals and others are looking for an alternative money.
12:46And individuals and others are looking for an alternative money.
12:51The question is, what is money?
12:51The question is, what is money?
12:51The question is, what is money?
12:51The question is, what is money?
12:51The question is, what is money?
12:51The question is, what is money?
12:54So when we're thinking about this, money, mechanistically, money is debt.
12:54So when we're thinking about this, money, mechanistically, money is debt.
12:54So when we're thinking about this, money, mechanistically, money is debt.
12:54So when we're thinking about this, money, mechanistically, money is debt.
12:54So when we're thinking about this, money, mechanistically, money is debt.
12:54So when we're thinking about this, money, mechanistically, money is debt.
13:00What I mean by that is that if you're holding money, you're holding it in
13:00What I mean by that is that if you're holding money, you're holding it in
13:00What I mean by that is that if you're holding money, you're holding it in
13:00What I mean by that is that if you're holding money, you're holding it in
13:00What I mean by that is that if you're holding money, you're holding it in
13:00What I mean by that is that if you're holding money, you're holding it in
13:06the form of a debt instrument.
13:06the form of a debt instrument.
13:06the form of a debt instrument.
13:06the form of a debt instrument.
13:06the form of a debt instrument.
13:06the form of a debt instrument.
13:08And if you are holding a debt instrument, what you're getting is a promise from
13:08And if you are holding a debt instrument, what you're getting is a promise from
13:08And if you are holding a debt instrument, what you're getting is a promise from
13:08And if you are holding a debt instrument, what you're getting is a promise from
13:08And if you are holding a debt instrument, what you're getting is a promise from
13:08And if you are holding a debt instrument, what you're getting is a promise from
13:16somebody to deliver you money.
13:16somebody to deliver you money.
13:16somebody to deliver you money.
13:16somebody to deliver you money.
13:16somebody to deliver you money.
13:16somebody to deliver you money.
13:19Okay. And as I mentioned in the beginning, the power of the central banks, when
13:19Okay. And as I mentioned in the beginning, the power of the central banks, when
13:19Okay. And as I mentioned in the beginning, the power of the central banks, when
13:19Okay. And as I mentioned in the beginning, the power of the central banks, when
13:19Okay. And as I mentioned in the beginning, the power of the central banks, when
13:19Okay. And as I mentioned in the beginning, the power of the central banks, when
13:26they have too much debt, is to print money.
13:26they have too much debt, is to print money.
13:26they have too much debt, is to print money.
13:26they have too much debt, is to print money.
13:26they have too much debt, is to print money.
13:26they have too much debt, is to print money.
13:31Okay. So if you've got that down, okay, then you can understand what's happening.
13:31Okay. So if you've got that down, okay, then you can understand what's happening.
13:31Okay. So if you've got that down, okay, then you can understand what's happening.
13:31Okay. So if you've got that down, okay, then you can understand what's happening.
13:31Okay. So if you've got that down, okay, then you can understand what's happening.
13:31Okay. So if you've got that down, okay, then you can understand what's happening.
13:37Okay. Because the question is, Dave, what money do you think is safe?
13:37Okay. Because the question is, Dave, what money do you think is safe?
13:37Okay. Because the question is, Dave, what money do you think is safe?
13:37Okay. Because the question is, Dave, what money do you think is safe?
13:37Okay. Because the question is, Dave, what money do you think is safe?
13:37Okay. Because the question is, Dave, what money do you think is safe?
13:45Right. Given what I've just said.
13:45Right. Given what I've just said.
13:45Right. Given what I've just said.
13:45Right. Given what I've just said.
13:45Right. Given what I've just said.
13:45Right. Given what I've just said.
13:49Okay. Yeah. Yeah. Asset back.
13:49Okay. Yeah. Yeah. Asset back.
13:49Okay. Yeah. Yeah. Asset back.
13:49Okay. Yeah. Yeah. Asset back.
13:49Okay. Yeah. Yeah. Asset back.
13:49Okay. Yeah. Yeah. Asset back.
13:51Right. I want an asset.
13:51Right. I want an asset.
13:51Right. I want an asset.
13:51Right. I want an asset.
13:51Right. I want an asset.
13:51Right. I want an asset.
13:53I want to have something that's got some physical known limitation to it.
13:53I want to have something that's got some physical known limitation to it.
13:53I want to have something that's got some physical known limitation to it.
13:53I want to have something that's got some physical known limitation to it.
13:53I want to have something that's got some physical known limitation to it.
13:53I want to have something that's got some physical known limitation to it.
13:57And particularly what you want is that can be transferred from one place to another
13:57And particularly what you want is that can be transferred from one place to another
13:57And particularly what you want is that can be transferred from one place to another
13:57And particularly what you want is that can be transferred from one place to another
13:57And particularly what you want is that can be transferred from one place to another
13:57And particularly what you want is that can be transferred from one place to another
14:03because money is both a medium of exchange and a storehold of wealth.
14:03because money is both a medium of exchange and a storehold of wealth.
14:03because money is both a medium of exchange and a storehold of wealth.
14:03because money is both a medium of exchange and a storehold of wealth.
14:03because money is both a medium of exchange and a storehold of wealth.
14:03because money is both a medium of exchange and a storehold of wealth.
14:08So in other words, if one country's central bank or government wants to pay another
14:08So in other words, if one country's central bank or government wants to pay another
14:08So in other words, if one country's central bank or government wants to pay another
14:08So in other words, if one country's central bank or government wants to pay another
14:08So in other words, if one country's central bank or government wants to pay another
14:08So in other words, if one country's central bank or government wants to pay another
14:15government, it can't just be in fixed assets like buildings.
14:15government, it can't just be in fixed assets like buildings.
14:15government, it can't just be in fixed assets like buildings.
14:15government, it can't just be in fixed assets like buildings.
14:15government, it can't just be in fixed assets like buildings.
14:15government, it can't just be in fixed assets like buildings.
14:20Okay. If you want to transact, you have to transact in something that you can
14:20Okay. If you want to transact, you have to transact in something that you can
14:20Okay. If you want to transact, you have to transact in something that you can
14:20Okay. If you want to transact, you have to transact in something that you can
14:20Okay. If you want to transact, you have to transact in something that you can
14:20Okay. If you want to transact, you have to transact in something that you can
14:25transfer to them and so on.
14:25transfer to them and so on.
14:25transfer to them and so on.
14:25transfer to them and so on.
14:25transfer to them and so on.
14:25transfer to them and so on.
14:28And gold is the only asset.
14:28And gold is the only asset.
14:28And gold is the only asset.
14:28And gold is the only asset.
14:28And gold is the only asset.
14:28And gold is the only asset.
14:32It's a long -term. historic asset for reasons.
14:32It's a long -term. historic asset for reasons.
14:32It's a long -term. historic asset for reasons.
14:32It's a long -term. historic asset for reasons.
14:32It's a long -term. historic asset for reasons.
14:32It's a long -term. historic asset for reasons.
14:36That means that it can be transferred.
14:36That means that it can be transferred.
14:36That means that it can be transferred.
14:36That means that it can be transferred.
14:36That means that it can be transferred.
14:36That means that it can be transferred.
14:39They can't print a lot of it.
14:39They can't print a lot of it.
14:39They can't print a lot of it.
14:39They can't print a lot of it.
14:39They can't print a lot of it.
14:39They can't print a lot of it.
14:43And it is not dependent on somebody giving you something.
14:43And it is not dependent on somebody giving you something.
14:43And it is not dependent on somebody giving you something.
14:43And it is not dependent on somebody giving you something.
14:43And it is not dependent on somebody giving you something.
14:43And it is not dependent on somebody giving you something.
14:49In other words, most money, most if you hold debt or you hold stocks or
14:49In other words, most money, most if you hold debt or you hold stocks or
14:49In other words, most money, most if you hold debt or you hold stocks or
14:49In other words, most money, most if you hold debt or you hold stocks or
14:49In other words, most money, most if you hold debt or you hold stocks or
14:49In other words, most money, most if you hold debt or you hold stocks or
14:53you hold something, you're holding a promise for somebody to give you buying power.
14:53you hold something, you're holding a promise for somebody to give you buying power.
14:53you hold something, you're holding a promise for somebody to give you buying power.
14:53you hold something, you're holding a promise for somebody to give you buying power.
14:53you hold something, you're holding a promise for somebody to give you buying power.
14:53you hold something, you're holding a promise for somebody to give you buying power.
14:59Okay. So you can like wealth is important to think to distinguish wealth from money.
14:59Okay. So you can like wealth is important to think to distinguish wealth from money.
14:59Okay. So you can like wealth is important to think to distinguish wealth from money.
14:59Okay. So you can like wealth is important to think to distinguish wealth from money.
14:59Okay. So you can like wealth is important to think to distinguish wealth from money.
14:59Okay. So you can like wealth is important to think to distinguish wealth from money.
15:05Okay. Wealth is in stuff.
15:05Okay. Wealth is in stuff.
15:05Okay. Wealth is in stuff.
15:05Okay. Wealth is in stuff.
15:05Okay. Wealth is in stuff.
15:05Okay. Wealth is in stuff.
15:08It's in buildings, it's in companies and so on, but you can't spend wealth.
15:08It's in buildings, it's in companies and so on, but you can't spend wealth.
15:08It's in buildings, it's in companies and so on, but you can't spend wealth.
15:08It's in buildings, it's in companies and so on, but you can't spend wealth.
15:08It's in buildings, it's in companies and so on, but you can't spend wealth.
15:08It's in buildings, it's in companies and so on, but you can't spend wealth.
15:13You have to, when you want to spend it, and that's the purpose of money,
15:13You have to, when you want to spend it, and that's the purpose of money,
15:13You have to, when you want to spend it, and that's the purpose of money,
15:13You have to, when you want to spend it, and that's the purpose of money,
15:13You have to, when you want to spend it, and that's the purpose of money,
15:13You have to, when you want to spend it, and that's the purpose of money,
15:17you have to sell it and then you get money to spend.
15:17you have to sell it and then you get money to spend.
15:17you have to sell it and then you get money to spend.
15:17you have to sell it and then you get money to spend.
15:17you have to sell it and then you get money to spend.
15:17you have to sell it and then you get money to spend.
15:23And right now we have an awful lot of wealth relative to money.
15:23And right now we have an awful lot of wealth relative to money.
15:23And right now we have an awful lot of wealth relative to money.
15:23And right now we have an awful lot of wealth relative to money.
15:23And right now we have an awful lot of wealth relative to money.
15:23And right now we have an awful lot of wealth relative to money.
15:30And the question is, what is that money?
15:30And the question is, what is that money?
15:30And the question is, what is that money?
15:30And the question is, what is that money?
15:30And the question is, what is that money?
15:30And the question is, what is that money?
15:31And there's the risk that you go to get, convert your wealth into money that
15:31And there's the risk that you go to get, convert your wealth into money that
15:31And there's the risk that you go to get, convert your wealth into money that
15:31And there's the risk that you go to get, convert your wealth into money that
15:31And there's the risk that you go to get, convert your wealth into money that
15:31And there's the risk that you go to get, convert your wealth into money that
15:36they're going to print money.
15:36they're going to print money.
15:36they're going to print money.
15:36they're going to print money.
15:36they're going to print money.
15:36they're going to print money.
15:37Cause that's what they've always done since we've had fiat currencies.
15:37Cause that's what they've always done since we've had fiat currencies.
15:37Cause that's what they've always done since we've had fiat currencies.
15:37Cause that's what they've always done since we've had fiat currencies.
15:37Cause that's what they've always done since we've had fiat currencies.
15:37Cause that's what they've always done since we've had fiat currencies.
15:40So as you look out and have conversations with all the market participants that you
15:40So as you look out and have conversations with all the market participants that you
15:40So as you look out and have conversations with all the market participants that you
15:40So as you look out and have conversations with all the market participants that you
15:40So as you look out and have conversations with all the market participants that you
15:40So as you look out and have conversations with all the market participants that you
15:46know, and you know, everyone that's of size and scale, where are we in terms
15:46know, and you know, everyone that's of size and scale, where are we in terms
15:46know, and you know, everyone that's of size and scale, where are we in terms
15:46know, and you know, everyone that's of size and scale, where are we in terms
15:46know, and you know, everyone that's of size and scale, where are we in terms
15:46know, and you know, everyone that's of size and scale, where are we in terms
15:51of folks converting their wealth into gold or their money into gold?
15:51of folks converting their wealth into gold or their money into gold?
15:51of folks converting their wealth into gold or their money into gold?
15:51of folks converting their wealth into gold or their money into gold?
15:51of folks converting their wealth into gold or their money into gold?
15:51of folks converting their wealth into gold or their money into gold?
15:57Like how much more do we have to run in terms of the dollar denominated
15:57Like how much more do we have to run in terms of the dollar denominated
15:57Like how much more do we have to run in terms of the dollar denominated
15:57Like how much more do we have to run in terms of the dollar denominated
15:57Like how much more do we have to run in terms of the dollar denominated
15:57Like how much more do we have to run in terms of the dollar denominated
16:01value of gold in the market cycle as this great rush for the doors, rush
16:01value of gold in the market cycle as this great rush for the doors, rush
16:01value of gold in the market cycle as this great rush for the doors, rush
16:01value of gold in the market cycle as this great rush for the doors, rush
16:01value of gold in the market cycle as this great rush for the doors, rush
16:01value of gold in the market cycle as this great rush for the doors, rush
16:06for the exit happens? Two things that come to mind.
16:06for the exit happens? Two things that come to mind.
16:06for the exit happens? Two things that come to mind.
16:06for the exit happens? Two things that come to mind.
16:06for the exit happens? Two things that come to mind.
16:06for the exit happens? Two things that come to mind.
16:09What I, what I look at is literally who has what assets, including like central
16:09What I, what I look at is literally who has what assets, including like central
16:09What I, what I look at is literally who has what assets, including like central
16:09What I, what I look at is literally who has what assets, including like central
16:09What I, what I look at is literally who has what assets, including like central
16:09What I, what I look at is literally who has what assets, including like central
16:17banks, what is the money in and so on.
16:17banks, what is the money in and so on.
16:17banks, what is the money in and so on.
16:17banks, what is the money in and so on.
16:17banks, what is the money in and so on.
16:17banks, what is the money in and so on.
16:21And what is that mix?
16:21And what is that mix?
16:21And what is that mix?
16:21And what is that mix?
16:21And what is that mix?
16:21And what is that mix?
16:23And I look at the amount of wealth relative to money, or I look at
16:23And I look at the amount of wealth relative to money, or I look at
16:23And I look at the amount of wealth relative to money, or I look at
16:23And I look at the amount of wealth relative to money, or I look at
16:23And I look at the amount of wealth relative to money, or I look at
16:23And I look at the amount of wealth relative to money, or I look at
16:30the amount of wealth relative to gold.
16:30the amount of wealth relative to gold.
16:30the amount of wealth relative to gold.
16:30the amount of wealth relative to gold.
16:30the amount of wealth relative to gold.
16:30the amount of wealth relative to gold.
16:33And what we've seen is that there's an enormous amount of wealth and there was
16:33And what we've seen is that there's an enormous amount of wealth and there was
16:33And what we've seen is that there's an enormous amount of wealth and there was
16:33And what we've seen is that there's an enormous amount of wealth and there was
16:33And what we've seen is that there's an enormous amount of wealth and there was
16:33And what we've seen is that there's an enormous amount of wealth and there was
16:41an enormous amount in central banks of the other money relative to hard money gold.
16:41an enormous amount in central banks of the other money relative to hard money gold.
16:41an enormous amount in central banks of the other money relative to hard money gold.
16:41an enormous amount in central banks of the other money relative to hard money gold.
16:41an enormous amount in central banks of the other money relative to hard money gold.
16:41an enormous amount in central banks of the other money relative to hard money gold.
16:48And so we've seen about what I would call it go from an extremely small
16:48And so we've seen about what I would call it go from an extremely small
16:48And so we've seen about what I would call it go from an extremely small
16:48And so we've seen about what I would call it go from an extremely small
16:48And so we've seen about what I would call it go from an extremely small
16:48And so we've seen about what I would call it go from an extremely small
16:57number to something that is a less small number, that price increase and that change
16:57number to something that is a less small number, that price increase and that change
16:57number to something that is a less small number, that price increase and that change
16:57number to something that is a less small number, that price increase and that change
16:57number to something that is a less small number, that price increase and that change
16:57number to something that is a less small number, that price increase and that change
17:05in composition has brought it almost, not quite, but almost toward, uh, the average of
17:05in composition has brought it almost, not quite, but almost toward, uh, the average of
17:05in composition has brought it almost, not quite, but almost toward, uh, the average of
17:05in composition has brought it almost, not quite, but almost toward, uh, the average of
17:05in composition has brought it almost, not quite, but almost toward, uh, the average of
17:05in composition has brought it almost, not quite, but almost toward, uh, the average of
17:15what it's been, uh, over a period of time.
17:15what it's been, uh, over a period of time.
17:15what it's been, uh, over a period of time.
17:15what it's been, uh, over a period of time.
17:15what it's been, uh, over a period of time.
17:15what it's been, uh, over a period of time.
17:18So, uh, being out of balance.
17:18So, uh, being out of balance.
17:18So, uh, being out of balance.
17:18So, uh, being out of balance.
17:18So, uh, being out of balance.
17:18So, uh, being out of balance.
17:20However, because the wealth is total wealth is still so large relative to money, that's
17:20However, because the wealth is total wealth is still so large relative to money, that's
17:20However, because the wealth is total wealth is still so large relative to money, that's
17:20However, because the wealth is total wealth is still so large relative to money, that's
17:20However, because the wealth is total wealth is still so large relative to money, that's
17:20However, because the wealth is total wealth is still so large relative to money, that's
17:27a real, uh, issue. So let me give you a practical example of, of, of
17:27a real, uh, issue. So let me give you a practical example of, of, of
17:27a real, uh, issue. So let me give you a practical example of, of, of
17:27a real, uh, issue. So let me give you a practical example of, of, of
17:27a real, uh, issue. So let me give you a practical example of, of, of
17:27a real, uh, issue. So let me give you a practical example of, of, of
17:32this wealth taxes and wealth being a risk.
17:32this wealth taxes and wealth being a risk.
17:32this wealth taxes and wealth being a risk.
17:32this wealth taxes and wealth being a risk.
17:32this wealth taxes and wealth being a risk.
17:32this wealth taxes and wealth being a risk.
17:37One question that might be asked are, are we in a bubble?
17:37One question that might be asked are, are we in a bubble?
17:37One question that might be asked are, are we in a bubble?
17:37One question that might be asked are, are we in a bubble?
17:37One question that might be asked are, are we in a bubble?
17:37One question that might be asked are, are we in a bubble?
17:40Or in other words, are AI stocks and other such stocks in a bubble?
17:40Or in other words, are AI stocks and other such stocks in a bubble?
17:40Or in other words, are AI stocks and other such stocks in a bubble?
17:40Or in other words, are AI stocks and other such stocks in a bubble?
17:40Or in other words, are AI stocks and other such stocks in a bubble?
17:40Or in other words, are AI stocks and other such stocks in a bubble?
17:46That's a, does, if you want to get into that, we'll get into that.
17:46That's a, does, if you want to get into that, we'll get into that.
17:46That's a, does, if you want to get into that, we'll get into that.
17:46That's a, does, if you want to get into that, we'll get into that.
17:46That's a, does, if you want to get into that, we'll get into that.
17:46That's a, does, if you want to get into that, we'll get into that.
17:49But one of the things that we know from that is that one of the
17:49But one of the things that we know from that is that one of the
17:49But one of the things that we know from that is that one of the
17:49But one of the things that we know from that is that one of the
17:49But one of the things that we know from that is that one of the
17:49But one of the things that we know from that is that one of the
17:54characteristics of bubbles is that there becomes a need for money that requires people to
17:54characteristics of bubbles is that there becomes a need for money that requires people to
17:54characteristics of bubbles is that there becomes a need for money that requires people to
17:54characteristics of bubbles is that there becomes a need for money that requires people to
17:54characteristics of bubbles is that there becomes a need for money that requires people to
17:54characteristics of bubbles is that there becomes a need for money that requires people to
18:04sell their assets to get money money to meet that need.
18:04sell their assets to get money money to meet that need.
18:04sell their assets to get money money to meet that need.
18:04sell their assets to get money money to meet that need.
18:04sell their assets to get money money to meet that need.
18:04sell their assets to get money money to meet that need.
18:10Now, quite often that need.
18:10Now, quite often that need.
18:10Now, quite often that need.
18:10Now, quite often that need.
18:10Now, quite often that need.
18:10Now, quite often that need.
18:12comes from borrowing money to buy those assets, okay?
18:12comes from borrowing money to buy those assets, okay?
18:12comes from borrowing money to buy those assets, okay?
18:12comes from borrowing money to buy those assets, okay?
18:12comes from borrowing money to buy those assets, okay?
18:12comes from borrowing money to buy those assets, okay?
18:17And then the assets go up in price and so on.
18:17And then the assets go up in price and so on.
18:17And then the assets go up in price and so on.
18:17And then the assets go up in price and so on.
18:17And then the assets go up in price and so on.
18:17And then the assets go up in price and so on.
18:20But what happens is it can't be sustained because you have to make the debt
18:20But what happens is it can't be sustained because you have to make the debt
18:20But what happens is it can't be sustained because you have to make the debt
18:20But what happens is it can't be sustained because you have to make the debt
18:20But what happens is it can't be sustained because you have to make the debt
18:20But what happens is it can't be sustained because you have to make the debt
18:25service payments and they're not throwing off the cash to make that.
18:25service payments and they're not throwing off the cash to make that.
18:25service payments and they're not throwing off the cash to make that.
18:25service payments and they're not throwing off the cash to make that.
18:25service payments and they're not throwing off the cash to make that.
18:25service payments and they're not throwing off the cash to make that.
18:29And so they have to start to sell that.
18:29And so they have to start to sell that.
18:29And so they have to start to sell that.
18:29And so they have to start to sell that.
18:29And so they have to start to sell that.
18:29And so they have to start to sell that.
18:33And when you have to sell it because you need money, you need cash to
18:33And when you have to sell it because you need money, you need cash to
18:33And when you have to sell it because you need money, you need cash to
18:33And when you have to sell it because you need money, you need cash to
18:33And when you have to sell it because you need money, you need cash to
18:33And when you have to sell it because you need money, you need cash to
18:37pay your debt service or to pay nowadays wealth taxes.
18:37pay your debt service or to pay nowadays wealth taxes.
18:37pay your debt service or to pay nowadays wealth taxes.
18:37pay your debt service or to pay nowadays wealth taxes.
18:37pay your debt service or to pay nowadays wealth taxes.
18:37pay your debt service or to pay nowadays wealth taxes.
18:43Okay. So now we have a dynamic.
18:43Okay. So now we have a dynamic.
18:43Okay. So now we have a dynamic.
18:43Okay. So now we have a dynamic.
18:43Okay. So now we have a dynamic.
18:43Okay. So now we have a dynamic.
18:46The bubble will burst as that dynamic takes place.
18:46The bubble will burst as that dynamic takes place.
18:46The bubble will burst as that dynamic takes place.
18:46The bubble will burst as that dynamic takes place.
18:46The bubble will burst as that dynamic takes place.
18:46The bubble will burst as that dynamic takes place.
18:50There are a number of things we could talk about about the bubble if you're
18:50There are a number of things we could talk about about the bubble if you're
18:50There are a number of things we could talk about about the bubble if you're
18:50There are a number of things we could talk about about the bubble if you're
18:50There are a number of things we could talk about about the bubble if you're
18:50There are a number of things we could talk about about the bubble if you're
18:52interested. But just imagine if you put in wealth taxes, everybody can talk about whether
18:52interested. But just imagine if you put in wealth taxes, everybody can talk about whether
18:52interested. But just imagine if you put in wealth taxes, everybody can talk about whether
18:52interested. But just imagine if you put in wealth taxes, everybody can talk about whether
18:52interested. But just imagine if you put in wealth taxes, everybody can talk about whether
18:52interested. But just imagine if you put in wealth taxes, everybody can talk about whether
18:58they like or don't like wealth taxes or something.
18:58they like or don't like wealth taxes or something.
18:58they like or don't like wealth taxes or something.
18:58they like or don't like wealth taxes or something.
18:58they like or don't like wealth taxes or something.
18:58they like or don't like wealth taxes or something.
19:00But anything that if you put in wealth taxes and there's a lot of fear
19:00But anything that if you put in wealth taxes and there's a lot of fear
19:00But anything that if you put in wealth taxes and there's a lot of fear
19:00But anything that if you put in wealth taxes and there's a lot of fear
19:00But anything that if you put in wealth taxes and there's a lot of fear
19:00But anything that if you put in wealth taxes and there's a lot of fear
19:06of wealth taxes in and of itself that can drive money, the wealth to cash.
19:06of wealth taxes in and of itself that can drive money, the wealth to cash.
19:06of wealth taxes in and of itself that can drive money, the wealth to cash.
19:06of wealth taxes in and of itself that can drive money, the wealth to cash.
19:06of wealth taxes in and of itself that can drive money, the wealth to cash.
19:06of wealth taxes in and of itself that can drive money, the wealth to cash.
19:13And there's only one way you're going to get the cash with the wealth and
19:13And there's only one way you're going to get the cash with the wealth and
19:13And there's only one way you're going to get the cash with the wealth and
19:13And there's only one way you're going to get the cash with the wealth and
19:13And there's only one way you're going to get the cash with the wealth and
19:13And there's only one way you're going to get the cash with the wealth and
19:17that's either sell it or to borrow against it, which causes its own cash flow
19:17that's either sell it or to borrow against it, which causes its own cash flow
19:17that's either sell it or to borrow against it, which causes its own cash flow
19:17that's either sell it or to borrow against it, which causes its own cash flow
19:17that's either sell it or to borrow against it, which causes its own cash flow
19:17that's either sell it or to borrow against it, which causes its own cash flow
19:22issues. And we have a dynamic having to do with the social part of this,
19:22issues. And we have a dynamic having to do with the social part of this,
19:22issues. And we have a dynamic having to do with the social part of this,
19:22issues. And we have a dynamic having to do with the social part of this,
19:22issues. And we have a dynamic having to do with the social part of this,
19:22issues. And we have a dynamic having to do with the social part of this,
19:27the wealth gap that makes that politically an issue.
19:27the wealth gap that makes that politically an issue.
19:27the wealth gap that makes that politically an issue.
19:27the wealth gap that makes that politically an issue.
19:27the wealth gap that makes that politically an issue.
19:27the wealth gap that makes that politically an issue.
19:32So anyway, all I'm saying is people should worry and companies should worry or countries
19:32So anyway, all I'm saying is people should worry and companies should worry or countries
19:32So anyway, all I'm saying is people should worry and companies should worry or countries
19:32So anyway, all I'm saying is people should worry and companies should worry or countries
19:32So anyway, all I'm saying is people should worry and companies should worry or countries
19:32So anyway, all I'm saying is people should worry and companies should worry or countries
19:40should worry, do they have enough gold?
19:40should worry, do they have enough gold?
19:40should worry, do they have enough gold?
19:40should worry, do they have enough gold?
19:40should worry, do they have enough gold?
19:40should worry, do they have enough gold?
19:42I mean, if you didn't know what the, if you didn't know what gold was
19:42I mean, if you didn't know what the, if you didn't know what gold was
19:42I mean, if you didn't know what the, if you didn't know what gold was
19:42I mean, if you didn't know what the, if you didn't know what gold was
19:42I mean, if you didn't know what the, if you didn't know what gold was
19:42I mean, if you didn't know what the, if you didn't know what gold was
19:49likely to do and you had no view on gold, one should have between five
19:49likely to do and you had no view on gold, one should have between five
19:49likely to do and you had no view on gold, one should have between five
19:49likely to do and you had no view on gold, one should have between five
19:49likely to do and you had no view on gold, one should have between five
19:49likely to do and you had no view on gold, one should have between five
19:54and 15 % of their portfolio in gold because of the fact of how it
19:54and 15 % of their portfolio in gold because of the fact of how it
19:54and 15 % of their portfolio in gold because of the fact of how it
19:54and 15 % of their portfolio in gold because of the fact of how it
19:54and 15 % of their portfolio in gold because of the fact of how it
19:54and 15 % of their portfolio in gold because of the fact of how it
19:59works with the other components.
19:59works with the other components.
19:59works with the other components.
19:59works with the other components.
19:59works with the other components.
19:59works with the other components.
20:02In other words, it's a diversifier when, when the shit hits the fan, one, okay,
20:02In other words, it's a diversifier when, when the shit hits the fan, one, okay,
20:02In other words, it's a diversifier when, when the shit hits the fan, one, okay,
20:02In other words, it's a diversifier when, when the shit hits the fan, one, okay,
20:02In other words, it's a diversifier when, when the shit hits the fan, one, okay,
20:02In other words, it's a diversifier when, when the shit hits the fan, one, okay,
20:09gold does well and the other things don't, generally speaking.
20:09gold does well and the other things don't, generally speaking.
20:09gold does well and the other things don't, generally speaking.
20:09gold does well and the other things don't, generally speaking.
20:09gold does well and the other things don't, generally speaking.
20:09gold does well and the other things don't, generally speaking.
20:13And because of that correlation, depending on what else is in the portfolio, if you
20:13And because of that correlation, depending on what else is in the portfolio, if you
20:13And because of that correlation, depending on what else is in the portfolio, if you
20:13And because of that correlation, depending on what else is in the portfolio, if you
20:13And because of that correlation, depending on what else is in the portfolio, if you
20:13And because of that correlation, depending on what else is in the portfolio, if you
20:20put it through an optimizer, you'd have something like that.
20:20put it through an optimizer, you'd have something like that.
20:20put it through an optimizer, you'd have something like that.
20:20put it through an optimizer, you'd have something like that.
20:20put it through an optimizer, you'd have something like that.
20:20put it through an optimizer, you'd have something like that.
20:24So I'm not trying to tout people on buying gold, but I would say, what
20:24So I'm not trying to tout people on buying gold, but I would say, what
20:24So I'm not trying to tout people on buying gold, but I would say, what
20:24So I'm not trying to tout people on buying gold, but I would say, what
20:24So I'm not trying to tout people on buying gold, but I would say, what
20:24So I'm not trying to tout people on buying gold, but I would say, what
20:28is safe? What is safe?
20:28is safe? What is safe?
20:28is safe? What is safe?
20:28is safe? What is safe?
20:28is safe? What is safe?
20:28is safe? What is safe?
20:31And it's safe is somewhere, if you had no view, between five and 15%.
20:31And it's safe is somewhere, if you had no view, between five and 15%.
20:31And it's safe is somewhere, if you had no view, between five and 15%.
20:31And it's safe is somewhere, if you had no view, between five and 15%.
20:31And it's safe is somewhere, if you had no view, between five and 15%.
20:31And it's safe is somewhere, if you had no view, between five and 15%.
20:36Why hasn't Bitcoin performed in the same way?
20:36Why hasn't Bitcoin performed in the same way?
20:36Why hasn't Bitcoin performed in the same way?
20:36Why hasn't Bitcoin performed in the same way?
20:36Why hasn't Bitcoin performed in the same way?
20:36Why hasn't Bitcoin performed in the same way?
20:40In the same period that gold's climbed 80 % since we last talked, Bitcoin's down
20:40In the same period that gold's climbed 80 % since we last talked, Bitcoin's down
20:40In the same period that gold's climbed 80 % since we last talked, Bitcoin's down
20:40In the same period that gold's climbed 80 % since we last talked, Bitcoin's down
20:40In the same period that gold's climbed 80 % since we last talked, Bitcoin's down
20:40In the same period that gold's climbed 80 % since we last talked, Bitcoin's down
20:4425%. What's your view on what's happened with Bitcoin and why that hasn't played the
20:4425%. What's your view on what's happened with Bitcoin and why that hasn't played the
20:4425%. What's your view on what's happened with Bitcoin and why that hasn't played the
20:4425%. What's your view on what's happened with Bitcoin and why that hasn't played the
20:4425%. What's your view on what's happened with Bitcoin and why that hasn't played the
20:4425%. What's your view on what's happened with Bitcoin and why that hasn't played the
20:50role that many thought it was going to play, which is the safe haven asset?
20:50role that many thought it was going to play, which is the safe haven asset?
20:50role that many thought it was going to play, which is the safe haven asset?
20:50role that many thought it was going to play, which is the safe haven asset?
20:50role that many thought it was going to play, which is the safe haven asset?
20:50role that many thought it was going to play, which is the safe haven asset?
20:53There's an important differentiating characteristics of Bitcoin.
20:53There's an important differentiating characteristics of Bitcoin.
20:53There's an important differentiating characteristics of Bitcoin.
20:53There's an important differentiating characteristics of Bitcoin.
20:53There's an important differentiating characteristics of Bitcoin.
20:53There's an important differentiating characteristics of Bitcoin.
20:57And then there's also, you know, like who owns it and why they buy it,
20:57And then there's also, you know, like who owns it and why they buy it,
20:57And then there's also, you know, like who owns it and why they buy it,
20:57And then there's also, you know, like who owns it and why they buy it,
20:57And then there's also, you know, like who owns it and why they buy it,
20:57And then there's also, you know, like who owns it and why they buy it,
21:01why they bought and sell.
21:01why they bought and sell.
21:01why they bought and sell.
21:01why they bought and sell.
21:01why they bought and sell.
21:01why they bought and sell.
21:03Okay. So Bitcoin does not have privacy.
21:03Okay. So Bitcoin does not have privacy.
21:03Okay. So Bitcoin does not have privacy.
21:03Okay. So Bitcoin does not have privacy.
21:03Okay. So Bitcoin does not have privacy.
21:03Okay. So Bitcoin does not have privacy.
21:06Any transactions can be monitored and then indirectly perhaps controlled.
21:06Any transactions can be monitored and then indirectly perhaps controlled.
21:06Any transactions can be monitored and then indirectly perhaps controlled.
21:06Any transactions can be monitored and then indirectly perhaps controlled.
21:06Any transactions can be monitored and then indirectly perhaps controlled.
21:06Any transactions can be monitored and then indirectly perhaps controlled.
21:14Central banks are not going to want to buy Bitcoin and being able to hold
21:14Central banks are not going to want to buy Bitcoin and being able to hold
21:14Central banks are not going to want to buy Bitcoin and being able to hold
21:14Central banks are not going to want to buy Bitcoin and being able to hold
21:14Central banks are not going to want to buy Bitcoin and being able to hold
21:14Central banks are not going to want to buy Bitcoin and being able to hold
21:18it. So it's not just individuals, it's institutions and so on, but most, you know,
21:18it. So it's not just individuals, it's institutions and so on, but most, you know,
21:18it. So it's not just individuals, it's institutions and so on, but most, you know,
21:18it. So it's not just individuals, it's institutions and so on, but most, you know,
21:18it. So it's not just individuals, it's institutions and so on, but most, you know,
21:18it. So it's not just individuals, it's institutions and so on, but most, you know,
21:24and central banks so that there are attributes of that.
21:24and central banks so that there are attributes of that.
21:24and central banks so that there are attributes of that.
21:24and central banks so that there are attributes of that.
21:24and central banks so that there are attributes of that.
21:24and central banks so that there are attributes of that.
21:28There has been some question or thoughts of the development of, you know, new technologies
21:28There has been some question or thoughts of the development of, you know, new technologies
21:28There has been some question or thoughts of the development of, you know, new technologies
21:28There has been some question or thoughts of the development of, you know, new technologies
21:28There has been some question or thoughts of the development of, you know, new technologies
21:28There has been some question or thoughts of the development of, you know, new technologies
21:35like quantum computing and so on.
21:35like quantum computing and so on.
21:35like quantum computing and so on.
21:35like quantum computing and so on.
21:35like quantum computing and so on.
21:35like quantum computing and so on.
21:37Can there be issues regarding that?
21:37Can there be issues regarding that?
21:37Can there be issues regarding that?
21:37Can there be issues regarding that?
21:37Can there be issues regarding that?
21:37Can there be issues regarding that?
21:40And then there's, you know, who owns it and what are the other exposures that
21:40And then there's, you know, who owns it and what are the other exposures that
21:40And then there's, you know, who owns it and what are the other exposures that
21:40And then there's, you know, who owns it and what are the other exposures that
21:40And then there's, you know, who owns it and what are the other exposures that
21:40And then there's, you know, who owns it and what are the other exposures that
21:45they have in their portfolio?
21:45they have in their portfolio?
21:45they have in their portfolio?
21:45they have in their portfolio?
21:45they have in their portfolio?
21:45they have in their portfolio?
21:47It tends to have a pretty high correlation.
21:47It tends to have a pretty high correlation.
21:47It tends to have a pretty high correlation.
21:47It tends to have a pretty high correlation.
21:47It tends to have a pretty high correlation.
21:47It tends to have a pretty high correlation.
21:50with the tech stocks from an ownership.
21:50with the tech stocks from an ownership.
21:50with the tech stocks from an ownership.
21:50with the tech stocks from an ownership.
21:50with the tech stocks from an ownership.
21:50with the tech stocks from an ownership.
21:56Just the supply demand is affected by if somebody gets squeezed in one thing, they
21:56Just the supply demand is affected by if somebody gets squeezed in one thing, they
21:56Just the supply demand is affected by if somebody gets squeezed in one thing, they
21:56Just the supply demand is affected by if somebody gets squeezed in one thing, they
21:56Just the supply demand is affected by if somebody gets squeezed in one thing, they
21:56Just the supply demand is affected by if somebody gets squeezed in one thing, they
22:01sell something, whatever else they have.
22:01sell something, whatever else they have.
22:01sell something, whatever else they have.
22:01sell something, whatever else they have.
22:01sell something, whatever else they have.
22:01sell something, whatever else they have.
22:05So there are those dynamics.
22:05So there are those dynamics.
22:05So there are those dynamics.
22:05So there are those dynamics.
22:05So there are those dynamics.
22:05So there are those dynamics.
22:07It's a long way, and it's a relatively small market that's a relatively controllable market.
22:07It's a long way, and it's a relatively small market that's a relatively controllable market.
22:07It's a long way, and it's a relatively small market that's a relatively controllable market.
22:07It's a long way, and it's a relatively small market that's a relatively controllable market.
22:07It's a long way, and it's a relatively small market that's a relatively controllable market.
22:07It's a long way, and it's a relatively small market that's a relatively controllable market.
22:13I think a lot of attention has been given to Bitcoin, but as a money,
22:13I think a lot of attention has been given to Bitcoin, but as a money,
22:13I think a lot of attention has been given to Bitcoin, but as a money,
22:13I think a lot of attention has been given to Bitcoin, but as a money,
22:13I think a lot of attention has been given to Bitcoin, but as a money,
22:13I think a lot of attention has been given to Bitcoin, but as a money,
22:18it's small. In relationship to gold, and so those are the dynamics.
22:18it's small. In relationship to gold, and so those are the dynamics.
22:18it's small. In relationship to gold, and so those are the dynamics.
22:18it's small. In relationship to gold, and so those are the dynamics.
22:18it's small. In relationship to gold, and so those are the dynamics.
22:18it's small. In relationship to gold, and so those are the dynamics.
22:26There is only one goal.
22:26There is only one goal.
22:26There is only one goal.
22:26There is only one goal.
22:26There is only one goal.
22:26There is only one goal.
22:28What about silver? I mean, silver has had a big run -up in the past
22:28What about silver? I mean, silver has had a big run -up in the past
22:28What about silver? I mean, silver has had a big run -up in the past
22:28What about silver? I mean, silver has had a big run -up in the past
22:28What about silver? I mean, silver has had a big run -up in the past
22:28What about silver? I mean, silver has had a big run -up in the past
22:31year as well. Is that a derivative to gold, and it's effectively people playing off
22:31year as well. Is that a derivative to gold, and it's effectively people playing off
22:31year as well. Is that a derivative to gold, and it's effectively people playing off
22:31year as well. Is that a derivative to gold, and it's effectively people playing off
22:31year as well. Is that a derivative to gold, and it's effectively people playing off
22:31year as well. Is that a derivative to gold, and it's effectively people playing off
22:36of the wake of gold's price movement?
22:36of the wake of gold's price movement?
22:36of the wake of gold's price movement?
22:36of the wake of gold's price movement?
22:36of the wake of gold's price movement?
22:36of the wake of gold's price movement?
22:40Silver in its production is a residual commodity.
22:40Silver in its production is a residual commodity.
22:40Silver in its production is a residual commodity.
22:40Silver in its production is a residual commodity.
22:40Silver in its production is a residual commodity.
22:40Silver in its production is a residual commodity.
22:45The supply of it is difficult to increase, and through history, you know, like the
22:45The supply of it is difficult to increase, and through history, you know, like the
22:45The supply of it is difficult to increase, and through history, you know, like the
22:45The supply of it is difficult to increase, and through history, you know, like the
22:45The supply of it is difficult to increase, and through history, you know, like the
22:45The supply of it is difficult to increase, and through history, you know, like the
22:51pound sterling, silver was perceived as a monetary item.
22:51pound sterling, silver was perceived as a monetary item.
22:51pound sterling, silver was perceived as a monetary item.
22:51pound sterling, silver was perceived as a monetary item.
22:51pound sterling, silver was perceived as a monetary item.
22:51pound sterling, silver was perceived as a monetary item.
22:59But it has also taken on a speculative life of its own.
22:59But it has also taken on a speculative life of its own.
22:59But it has also taken on a speculative life of its own.
22:59But it has also taken on a speculative life of its own.
22:59But it has also taken on a speculative life of its own.
22:59But it has also taken on a speculative life of its own.
23:03So, you know, people are, you know, hot in it because it's been hot.
23:03So, you know, people are, you know, hot in it because it's been hot.
23:03So, you know, people are, you know, hot in it because it's been hot.
23:03So, you know, people are, you know, hot in it because it's been hot.
23:03So, you know, people are, you know, hot in it because it's been hot.
23:03So, you know, people are, you know, hot in it because it's been hot.
23:08I just want to shift gear a little bit back to something you touched on.
23:08I just want to shift gear a little bit back to something you touched on.
23:08I just want to shift gear a little bit back to something you touched on.
23:08I just want to shift gear a little bit back to something you touched on.
23:08I just want to shift gear a little bit back to something you touched on.
23:08I just want to shift gear a little bit back to something you touched on.
23:12But the last time we met, you also talked about the importance of making sure
23:12But the last time we met, you also talked about the importance of making sure
23:12But the last time we met, you also talked about the importance of making sure
23:12But the last time we met, you also talked about the importance of making sure
23:12But the last time we met, you also talked about the importance of making sure
23:12But the last time we met, you also talked about the importance of making sure
23:16that interest rates remained low for us to kind of manage the effect and the
23:16that interest rates remained low for us to kind of manage the effect and the
23:16that interest rates remained low for us to kind of manage the effect and the
23:16that interest rates remained low for us to kind of manage the effect and the
23:16that interest rates remained low for us to kind of manage the effect and the
23:16that interest rates remained low for us to kind of manage the effect and the
23:19impact of the stage and the cycle that we're in.
23:19impact of the stage and the cycle that we're in.
23:19impact of the stage and the cycle that we're in.
23:19impact of the stage and the cycle that we're in.
23:19impact of the stage and the cycle that we're in.
23:19impact of the stage and the cycle that we're in.
23:21What's your view, I guess, today on where rates are and how the Fed has
23:21What's your view, I guess, today on where rates are and how the Fed has
23:21What's your view, I guess, today on where rates are and how the Fed has
23:21What's your view, I guess, today on where rates are and how the Fed has
23:21What's your view, I guess, today on where rates are and how the Fed has
23:21What's your view, I guess, today on where rates are and how the Fed has
23:26acted over the past year relative to what needs to be done to soften the
23:26acted over the past year relative to what needs to be done to soften the
23:26acted over the past year relative to what needs to be done to soften the
23:26acted over the past year relative to what needs to be done to soften the
23:26acted over the past year relative to what needs to be done to soften the
23:26acted over the past year relative to what needs to be done to soften the
23:32effects of the stage and the cycle that we're in?
23:32effects of the stage and the cycle that we're in?
23:32effects of the stage and the cycle that we're in?
23:32effects of the stage and the cycle that we're in?
23:32effects of the stage and the cycle that we're in?
23:32effects of the stage and the cycle that we're in?
23:35Because we have so much debt, federal debt, interest rates are one of the three
23:35Because we have so much debt, federal debt, interest rates are one of the three
23:35Because we have so much debt, federal debt, interest rates are one of the three
23:35Because we have so much debt, federal debt, interest rates are one of the three
23:35Because we have so much debt, federal debt, interest rates are one of the three
23:35Because we have so much debt, federal debt, interest rates are one of the three
23:42main considerations. There's the taxes, there's spending, and then there's interest rates on the debt.
23:42main considerations. There's the taxes, there's spending, and then there's interest rates on the debt.
23:42main considerations. There's the taxes, there's spending, and then there's interest rates on the debt.
23:42main considerations. There's the taxes, there's spending, and then there's interest rates on the debt.
23:42main considerations. There's the taxes, there's spending, and then there's interest rates on the debt.
23:42main considerations. There's the taxes, there's spending, and then there's interest rates on the debt.
23:49But you can't make interest rates severely artificially low because one man's debts are another
23:49But you can't make interest rates severely artificially low because one man's debts are another
23:49But you can't make interest rates severely artificially low because one man's debts are another
23:49But you can't make interest rates severely artificially low because one man's debts are another
23:49But you can't make interest rates severely artificially low because one man's debts are another
23:49But you can't make interest rates severely artificially low because one man's debts are another
23:56man's assets. And if you make those interest rates too low for the creditor, you
23:56man's assets. And if you make those interest rates too low for the creditor, you
23:56man's assets. And if you make those interest rates too low for the creditor, you
23:56man's assets. And if you make those interest rates too low for the creditor, you
23:56man's assets. And if you make those interest rates too low for the creditor, you
23:56man's assets. And if you make those interest rates too low for the creditor, you
24:06will produce the dynamic that we understand.
24:06will produce the dynamic that we understand.
24:06will produce the dynamic that we understand.
24:06will produce the dynamic that we understand.
24:06will produce the dynamic that we understand.
24:06will produce the dynamic that we understand.
24:08In other words, you'll produce a lot more borrowing, you'll put it into things, and
24:08In other words, you'll produce a lot more borrowing, you'll put it into things, and
24:08In other words, you'll produce a lot more borrowing, you'll put it into things, and
24:08In other words, you'll produce a lot more borrowing, you'll put it into things, and
24:08In other words, you'll produce a lot more borrowing, you'll put it into things, and
24:08In other words, you'll produce a lot more borrowing, you'll put it into things, and
24:13you can fuel a bubble.
24:13you can fuel a bubble.
24:13you can fuel a bubble.
24:13you can fuel a bubble.
24:13you can fuel a bubble.
24:13you can fuel a bubble.
24:15And so at the same time, you can't have them so high that the debtor
24:15And so at the same time, you can't have them so high that the debtor
24:15And so at the same time, you can't have them so high that the debtor
24:15And so at the same time, you can't have them so high that the debtor
24:15And so at the same time, you can't have them so high that the debtor
24:15And so at the same time, you can't have them so high that the debtor
24:23gets squeezed unaffectively. So there's a balancing act, you know, keep them high enough that
24:23gets squeezed unaffectively. So there's a balancing act, you know, keep them high enough that
24:23gets squeezed unaffectively. So there's a balancing act, you know, keep them high enough that
24:23gets squeezed unaffectively. So there's a balancing act, you know, keep them high enough that
24:23gets squeezed unaffectively. So there's a balancing act, you know, keep them high enough that
24:23gets squeezed unaffectively. So there's a balancing act, you know, keep them high enough that
24:30they're adequate for the creditor, but not so high that the debtor.
24:30they're adequate for the creditor, but not so high that the debtor.
24:30they're adequate for the creditor, but not so high that the debtor.
24:30they're adequate for the creditor, but not so high that the debtor.
24:30they're adequate for the creditor, but not so high that the debtor.
24:30they're adequate for the creditor, but not so high that the debtor.
24:34And so when you have a lot of debt assets and liabilities, because for every
24:34And so when you have a lot of debt assets and liabilities, because for every
24:34And so when you have a lot of debt assets and liabilities, because for every
24:34And so when you have a lot of debt assets and liabilities, because for every
24:34And so when you have a lot of debt assets and liabilities, because for every
24:34And so when you have a lot of debt assets and liabilities, because for every
24:39debt asset, there's a debt liability.
24:39debt asset, there's a debt liability.
24:39debt asset, there's a debt liability.
24:39debt asset, there's a debt liability.
24:39debt asset, there's a debt liability.
24:39debt asset, there's a debt liability.
24:41And when you have a lot of those, that balancing act is very difficult.
24:41And when you have a lot of those, that balancing act is very difficult.
24:41And when you have a lot of those, that balancing act is very difficult.
24:41And when you have a lot of those, that balancing act is very difficult.
24:41And when you have a lot of those, that balancing act is very difficult.
24:41And when you have a lot of those, that balancing act is very difficult.
24:46This made more difficult, you know, because of what's called the K economy, you know,
24:46This made more difficult, you know, because of what's called the K economy, you know,
24:46This made more difficult, you know, because of what's called the K economy, you know,
24:46This made more difficult, you know, because of what's called the K economy, you know,
24:46This made more difficult, you know, because of what's called the K economy, you know,
24:46This made more difficult, you know, because of what's called the K economy, you know,
24:51in other words, there are bubble elements that are going on in the part of
24:51in other words, there are bubble elements that are going on in the part of
24:51in other words, there are bubble elements that are going on in the part of
24:51in other words, there are bubble elements that are going on in the part of
24:51in other words, there are bubble elements that are going on in the part of
24:51in other words, there are bubble elements that are going on in the part of
24:57the economy, you know, where, you know, the question is, who will be the first
24:57the economy, you know, where, you know, the question is, who will be the first
24:57the economy, you know, where, you know, the question is, who will be the first
24:57the economy, you know, where, you know, the question is, who will be the first
24:57the economy, you know, where, you know, the question is, who will be the first
24:57the economy, you know, where, you know, the question is, who will be the first
25:04to be a trillionaire? And, and that, you know, that top 1 % of the
25:04to be a trillionaire? And, and that, you know, that top 1 % of the
25:04to be a trillionaire? And, and that, you know, that top 1 % of the
25:04to be a trillionaire? And, and that, you know, that top 1 % of the
25:04to be a trillionaire? And, and that, you know, that top 1 % of the
25:04to be a trillionaire? And, and that, you know, that top 1 % of the
25:10population and all of that, at the same time, as you have the other part
25:10population and all of that, at the same time, as you have the other part
25:10population and all of that, at the same time, as you have the other part
25:10population and all of that, at the same time, as you have the other part
25:10population and all of that, at the same time, as you have the other part
25:10population and all of that, at the same time, as you have the other part
25:15of the economy, where, for example, 60 % of all Americans have below a sixth
25:15of the economy, where, for example, 60 % of all Americans have below a sixth
25:15of the economy, where, for example, 60 % of all Americans have below a sixth
25:15of the economy, where, for example, 60 % of all Americans have below a sixth
25:15of the economy, where, for example, 60 % of all Americans have below a sixth
25:15of the economy, where, for example, 60 % of all Americans have below a sixth
25:22grade reading level. And, and to make them productive, particularly as as well.
25:22grade reading level. And, and to make them productive, particularly as as well.
25:22grade reading level. And, and to make them productive, particularly as as well.
25:22grade reading level. And, and to make them productive, particularly as as well.
25:22grade reading level. And, and to make them productive, particularly as as well.
25:22grade reading level. And, and to make them productive, particularly as as well.
25:29We are also having AI have replacements for them is a particularly difficult thing to
25:29We are also having AI have replacements for them is a particularly difficult thing to
25:29We are also having AI have replacements for them is a particularly difficult thing to
25:29We are also having AI have replacements for them is a particularly difficult thing to
25:29We are also having AI have replacements for them is a particularly difficult thing to
25:29We are also having AI have replacements for them is a particularly difficult thing to
25:38achieve. In other words, when you have so much debt assets and liabilities, and then
25:38achieve. In other words, when you have so much debt assets and liabilities, and then
25:38achieve. In other words, when you have so much debt assets and liabilities, and then
25:38achieve. In other words, when you have so much debt assets and liabilities, and then
25:38achieve. In other words, when you have so much debt assets and liabilities, and then
25:38achieve. In other words, when you have so much debt assets and liabilities, and then
25:43you have such a disparity in conditions between those that are at the top and
25:43you have such a disparity in conditions between those that are at the top and
25:43you have such a disparity in conditions between those that are at the top and
25:43you have such a disparity in conditions between those that are at the top and
25:43you have such a disparity in conditions between those that are at the top and
25:43you have such a disparity in conditions between those that are at the top and
25:49let's call it the bottom 60 % of the population, what that's like, that's another
25:49let's call it the bottom 60 % of the population, what that's like, that's another
25:49let's call it the bottom 60 % of the population, what that's like, that's another
25:49let's call it the bottom 60 % of the population, what that's like, that's another
25:49let's call it the bottom 60 % of the population, what that's like, that's another
25:49let's call it the bottom 60 % of the population, what that's like, that's another
25:56hat trick. That's another difficult thing to pull off.
25:56hat trick. That's another difficult thing to pull off.
25:56hat trick. That's another difficult thing to pull off.
25:56hat trick. That's another difficult thing to pull off.
25:56hat trick. That's another difficult thing to pull off.
25:56hat trick. That's another difficult thing to pull off.
26:02So this is a challenging situation.
26:02So this is a challenging situation.
26:02So this is a challenging situation.
26:02So this is a challenging situation.
26:02So this is a challenging situation.
26:02So this is a challenging situation.
26:06As far as monetary policy exists, the idea of setting an interest rate and having
26:06As far as monetary policy exists, the idea of setting an interest rate and having
26:06As far as monetary policy exists, the idea of setting an interest rate and having
26:06As far as monetary policy exists, the idea of setting an interest rate and having
26:06As far as monetary policy exists, the idea of setting an interest rate and having
26:06As far as monetary policy exists, the idea of setting an interest rate and having
26:16a fiscal policy and a monetary policy that's for the economy as a whole and
26:16a fiscal policy and a monetary policy that's for the economy as a whole and
26:16a fiscal policy and a monetary policy that's for the economy as a whole and
26:16a fiscal policy and a monetary policy that's for the economy as a whole and
26:16a fiscal policy and a monetary policy that's for the economy as a whole and
26:16a fiscal policy and a monetary policy that's for the economy as a whole and
26:25doesn't deal with the differences in the circumstances may be more, is more challenging.
26:25doesn't deal with the differences in the circumstances may be more, is more challenging.
26:25doesn't deal with the differences in the circumstances may be more, is more challenging.
26:25doesn't deal with the differences in the circumstances may be more, is more challenging.
26:25doesn't deal with the differences in the circumstances may be more, is more challenging.
26:25doesn't deal with the differences in the circumstances may be more, is more challenging.
26:34Well, so taking a look at Fed action and market activity, there's been a lot
26:34Well, so taking a look at Fed action and market activity, there's been a lot
26:34Well, so taking a look at Fed action and market activity, there's been a lot
26:34Well, so taking a look at Fed action and market activity, there's been a lot
26:34Well, so taking a look at Fed action and market activity, there's been a lot
26:34Well, so taking a look at Fed action and market activity, there's been a lot
26:42of reporting over the past year that a number of global central banks have stopped
26:42of reporting over the past year that a number of global central banks have stopped
26:42of reporting over the past year that a number of global central banks have stopped
26:42of reporting over the past year that a number of global central banks have stopped
26:42of reporting over the past year that a number of global central banks have stopped
26:42of reporting over the past year that a number of global central banks have stopped
26:47buying U .S. treasuries and are shifting to gold.
26:47buying U .S. treasuries and are shifting to gold.
26:47buying U .S. treasuries and are shifting to gold.
26:47buying U .S. treasuries and are shifting to gold.
26:47buying U .S. treasuries and are shifting to gold.
26:47buying U .S. treasuries and are shifting to gold.
26:51Does this mean that the Fed in the U .S.
26:51Does this mean that the Fed in the U .S.
26:51Does this mean that the Fed in the U .S.
26:51Does this mean that the Fed in the U .S.
26:51Does this mean that the Fed in the U .S.
26:51Does this mean that the Fed in the U .S.
26:54is going to have to start buying treasuries and expand their balance sheet again?
26:54is going to have to start buying treasuries and expand their balance sheet again?
26:54is going to have to start buying treasuries and expand their balance sheet again?
26:54is going to have to start buying treasuries and expand their balance sheet again?
26:54is going to have to start buying treasuries and expand their balance sheet again?
26:54is going to have to start buying treasuries and expand their balance sheet again?
26:58Is it inevitable that we see a re -expansion of the Fed's balance sheet in
26:58Is it inevitable that we see a re -expansion of the Fed's balance sheet in
26:58Is it inevitable that we see a re -expansion of the Fed's balance sheet in
26:58Is it inevitable that we see a re -expansion of the Fed's balance sheet in
26:58Is it inevitable that we see a re -expansion of the Fed's balance sheet in
26:58Is it inevitable that we see a re -expansion of the Fed's balance sheet in
27:02this phase in the cycle, given what's going on with global market action?
27:02this phase in the cycle, given what's going on with global market action?
27:02this phase in the cycle, given what's going on with global market action?
27:02this phase in the cycle, given what's going on with global market action?
27:02this phase in the cycle, given what's going on with global market action?
27:02this phase in the cycle, given what's going on with global market action?
27:07I think that it's likely down the road.
27:07I think that it's likely down the road.
27:07I think that it's likely down the road.
27:07I think that it's likely down the road.
27:07I think that it's likely down the road.
27:07I think that it's likely down the road.
27:10Right now, there's the shortening of maturities as a means of trying to deal with
27:10Right now, there's the shortening of maturities as a means of trying to deal with
27:10Right now, there's the shortening of maturities as a means of trying to deal with
27:10Right now, there's the shortening of maturities as a means of trying to deal with
27:10Right now, there's the shortening of maturities as a means of trying to deal with
27:10Right now, there's the shortening of maturities as a means of trying to deal with
27:20that. Of course, that increases the debt rollover risk.
27:20that. Of course, that increases the debt rollover risk.
27:20that. Of course, that increases the debt rollover risk.
27:20that. Of course, that increases the debt rollover risk.
27:20that. Of course, that increases the debt rollover risk.
27:20that. Of course, that increases the debt rollover risk.
27:24But, you know, sell less long debt, try to hold the short rate down so
27:24But, you know, sell less long debt, try to hold the short rate down so
27:24But, you know, sell less long debt, try to hold the short rate down so
27:24But, you know, sell less long debt, try to hold the short rate down so
27:24But, you know, sell less long debt, try to hold the short rate down so
27:24But, you know, sell less long debt, try to hold the short rate down so
27:32that the longer rates attachment to it doesn't get, you know, helps to hold the
27:32that the longer rates attachment to it doesn't get, you know, helps to hold the
27:32that the longer rates attachment to it doesn't get, you know, helps to hold the
27:32that the longer rates attachment to it doesn't get, you know, helps to hold the
27:32that the longer rates attachment to it doesn't get, you know, helps to hold the
27:32that the longer rates attachment to it doesn't get, you know, helps to hold the
27:37long rate down. And then try to use the government's power of persuasion on other
27:37long rate down. And then try to use the government's power of persuasion on other
27:37long rate down. And then try to use the government's power of persuasion on other
27:37long rate down. And then try to use the government's power of persuasion on other
27:37long rate down. And then try to use the government's power of persuasion on other
27:37long rate down. And then try to use the government's power of persuasion on other
27:49countries to either buy the debt or to hold the debt or to have other
27:49countries to either buy the debt or to hold the debt or to have other
27:49countries to either buy the debt or to hold the debt or to have other
27:49countries to either buy the debt or to hold the debt or to have other
27:49countries to either buy the debt or to hold the debt or to have other
27:49countries to either buy the debt or to hold the debt or to have other
27:55forms of capital enter the United States.
27:55forms of capital enter the United States.
27:55forms of capital enter the United States.
27:55forms of capital enter the United States.
27:55forms of capital enter the United States.
27:55forms of capital enter the United States.
27:58How do you like Kevin Walsh's pick for Fed chair?
27:58How do you like Kevin Walsh's pick for Fed chair?
27:58How do you like Kevin Walsh's pick for Fed chair?
27:58How do you like Kevin Walsh's pick for Fed chair?
27:58How do you like Kevin Walsh's pick for Fed chair?
27:58How do you like Kevin Walsh's pick for Fed chair?
28:01What's your view on how he's going to guide interest rate policy for the central
28:01What's your view on how he's going to guide interest rate policy for the central
28:01What's your view on how he's going to guide interest rate policy for the central
28:01What's your view on how he's going to guide interest rate policy for the central
28:01What's your view on how he's going to guide interest rate policy for the central
28:01What's your view on how he's going to guide interest rate policy for the central
28:05bank when he assumes his term?
28:05bank when he assumes his term?
28:05bank when he assumes his term?
28:05bank when he assumes his term?
28:05bank when he assumes his term?
28:05bank when he assumes his term?
28:07It's a very, very big challenge.
28:07It's a very, very big challenge.
28:07It's a very, very big challenge.
28:07It's a very, very big challenge.
28:07It's a very, very big challenge.
28:07It's a very, very big challenge.
28:09I think he's a practical man.
28:09I think he's a practical man.
28:09I think he's a practical man.
28:09I think he's a practical man.
28:09I think he's a practical man.
28:09I think he's a practical man.
28:10He understands both sides of the pros and cons.
28:10He understands both sides of the pros and cons.
28:10He understands both sides of the pros and cons.
28:10He understands both sides of the pros and cons.
28:10He understands both sides of the pros and cons.
28:10He understands both sides of the pros and cons.
28:14I think it's a tough job.
28:14I think it's a tough job.
28:14I think it's a tough job.
28:14I think it's a tough job.
28:14I think it's a tough job.
28:14I think it's a tough job.
28:16One of the other things that I would say was pretty surprising over the past
28:16One of the other things that I would say was pretty surprising over the past
28:16One of the other things that I would say was pretty surprising over the past
28:16One of the other things that I would say was pretty surprising over the past
28:16One of the other things that I would say was pretty surprising over the past
28:16One of the other things that I would say was pretty surprising over the past
28:20year is, is how adamantly against tariffs for fear of inflation and reduced consumption, which
28:20year is, is how adamantly against tariffs for fear of inflation and reduced consumption, which
28:20year is, is how adamantly against tariffs for fear of inflation and reduced consumption, which
28:20year is, is how adamantly against tariffs for fear of inflation and reduced consumption, which
28:20year is, is how adamantly against tariffs for fear of inflation and reduced consumption, which
28:20year is, is how adamantly against tariffs for fear of inflation and reduced consumption, which
28:31would mean a negative effect on GDP growth, perhaps tariffs might be the president and
28:31would mean a negative effect on GDP growth, perhaps tariffs might be the president and
28:31would mean a negative effect on GDP growth, perhaps tariffs might be the president and
28:31would mean a negative effect on GDP growth, perhaps tariffs might be the president and
28:31would mean a negative effect on GDP growth, perhaps tariffs might be the president and
28:31would mean a negative effect on GDP growth, perhaps tariffs might be the president and
28:37the administration put in place a number of tariffs under the emergency economic powers act,
28:37the administration put in place a number of tariffs under the emergency economic powers act,
28:37the administration put in place a number of tariffs under the emergency economic powers act,
28:37the administration put in place a number of tariffs under the emergency economic powers act,
28:37the administration put in place a number of tariffs under the emergency economic powers act,
28:37the administration put in place a number of tariffs under the emergency economic powers act,
28:44which the Supreme Court in the last week or so overturned.
28:44which the Supreme Court in the last week or so overturned.
28:44which the Supreme Court in the last week or so overturned.
28:44which the Supreme Court in the last week or so overturned.
28:44which the Supreme Court in the last week or so overturned.
28:44which the Supreme Court in the last week or so overturned.
28:49But looking back on the economic effect of tariffs, what do you think economists got
28:49But looking back on the economic effect of tariffs, what do you think economists got
28:49But looking back on the economic effect of tariffs, what do you think economists got
28:49But looking back on the economic effect of tariffs, what do you think economists got
28:49But looking back on the economic effect of tariffs, what do you think economists got
28:49But looking back on the economic effect of tariffs, what do you think economists got
28:56right and wrong about their predictions about the effect tariffs would have on the economy,
28:56right and wrong about their predictions about the effect tariffs would have on the economy,
28:56right and wrong about their predictions about the effect tariffs would have on the economy,
28:56right and wrong about their predictions about the effect tariffs would have on the economy,
28:56right and wrong about their predictions about the effect tariffs would have on the economy,
28:56right and wrong about their predictions about the effect tariffs would have on the economy,
29:02on consumption, on inflation? And are there things that economists fundamentally...
29:02on consumption, on inflation? And are there things that economists fundamentally...
29:02on consumption, on inflation? And are there things that economists fundamentally...
29:02on consumption, on inflation? And are there things that economists fundamentally...
29:02on consumption, on inflation? And are there things that economists fundamentally...
29:02on consumption, on inflation? And are there things that economists fundamentally...
29:07missed or didn't understand and why?
29:07missed or didn't understand and why?
29:07missed or didn't understand and why?
29:07missed or didn't understand and why?
29:07missed or didn't understand and why?
29:07missed or didn't understand and why?
29:10Yeah, I think so. First of all, there's the tax revenue part of them.
29:10Yeah, I think so. First of all, there's the tax revenue part of them.
29:10Yeah, I think so. First of all, there's the tax revenue part of them.
29:10Yeah, I think so. First of all, there's the tax revenue part of them.
29:10Yeah, I think so. First of all, there's the tax revenue part of them.
29:10Yeah, I think so. First of all, there's the tax revenue part of them.
29:17I mean, thinking of it just as revenue.
29:17I mean, thinking of it just as revenue.
29:17I mean, thinking of it just as revenue.
29:17I mean, thinking of it just as revenue.
29:17I mean, thinking of it just as revenue.
29:17I mean, thinking of it just as revenue.
29:21And I think that people don't, all economists, make the mistake of not including taxes
29:21And I think that people don't, all economists, make the mistake of not including taxes
29:21And I think that people don't, all economists, make the mistake of not including taxes
29:21And I think that people don't, all economists, make the mistake of not including taxes
29:21And I think that people don't, all economists, make the mistake of not including taxes
29:21And I think that people don't, all economists, make the mistake of not including taxes
29:29in inflation. And what I mean by that is if your taxes go up, that's
29:29in inflation. And what I mean by that is if your taxes go up, that's
29:29in inflation. And what I mean by that is if your taxes go up, that's
29:29in inflation. And what I mean by that is if your taxes go up, that's
29:29in inflation. And what I mean by that is if your taxes go up, that's
29:29in inflation. And what I mean by that is if your taxes go up, that's
29:41inflation. I mean, why should it be any different than if your cost of housing
29:41inflation. I mean, why should it be any different than if your cost of housing
29:41inflation. I mean, why should it be any different than if your cost of housing
29:41inflation. I mean, why should it be any different than if your cost of housing
29:41inflation. I mean, why should it be any different than if your cost of housing
29:41inflation. I mean, why should it be any different than if your cost of housing
29:47goes up? Why shouldn't it be part of the inflation calculation number?
29:47goes up? Why shouldn't it be part of the inflation calculation number?
29:47goes up? Why shouldn't it be part of the inflation calculation number?
29:47goes up? Why shouldn't it be part of the inflation calculation number?
29:47goes up? Why shouldn't it be part of the inflation calculation number?
29:47goes up? Why shouldn't it be part of the inflation calculation number?
29:52It's taking money out of your pocket.
29:52It's taking money out of your pocket.
29:52It's taking money out of your pocket.
29:52It's taking money out of your pocket.
29:52It's taking money out of your pocket.
29:52It's taking money out of your pocket.
29:55I mean, it's probably, for a lot of people, the biggest expense.
29:55I mean, it's probably, for a lot of people, the biggest expense.
29:55I mean, it's probably, for a lot of people, the biggest expense.
29:55I mean, it's probably, for a lot of people, the biggest expense.
29:55I mean, it's probably, for a lot of people, the biggest expense.
29:55I mean, it's probably, for a lot of people, the biggest expense.
30:00And so when they say inflation is something separate, I think it's changing the form
30:00And so when they say inflation is something separate, I think it's changing the form
30:00And so when they say inflation is something separate, I think it's changing the form
30:00And so when they say inflation is something separate, I think it's changing the form
30:00And so when they say inflation is something separate, I think it's changing the form
30:00And so when they say inflation is something separate, I think it's changing the form
30:08of inflation in a sense.
30:08of inflation in a sense.
30:08of inflation in a sense.
30:08of inflation in a sense.
30:08of inflation in a sense.
30:08of inflation in a sense.
30:12So what I mean is, through history, tariffs used to be the biggest source of
30:12So what I mean is, through history, tariffs used to be the biggest source of
30:12So what I mean is, through history, tariffs used to be the biggest source of
30:12So what I mean is, through history, tariffs used to be the biggest source of
30:12So what I mean is, through history, tariffs used to be the biggest source of
30:12So what I mean is, through history, tariffs used to be the biggest source of
30:19revenue for government throughout most history and in most countries.
30:19revenue for government throughout most history and in most countries.
30:19revenue for government throughout most history and in most countries.
30:19revenue for government throughout most history and in most countries.
30:19revenue for government throughout most history and in most countries.
30:19revenue for government throughout most history and in most countries.
30:25Okay. So it is a, I think it's viewed, it's a totally valid way of
30:25Okay. So it is a, I think it's viewed, it's a totally valid way of
30:25Okay. So it is a, I think it's viewed, it's a totally valid way of
30:25Okay. So it is a, I think it's viewed, it's a totally valid way of
30:25Okay. So it is a, I think it's viewed, it's a totally valid way of
30:25Okay. So it is a, I think it's viewed, it's a totally valid way of
30:33raising money and it should be kept in consideration for that.
30:33raising money and it should be kept in consideration for that.
30:33raising money and it should be kept in consideration for that.
30:33raising money and it should be kept in consideration for that.
30:33raising money and it should be kept in consideration for that.
30:33raising money and it should be kept in consideration for that.
30:38And you get the foreigners paying a portion of it.
30:38And you get the foreigners paying a portion of it.
30:38And you get the foreigners paying a portion of it.
30:38And you get the foreigners paying a portion of it.
30:38And you get the foreigners paying a portion of it.
30:38And you get the foreigners paying a portion of it.
30:41But there's also, as part of the big cycle question, is the problem that we
30:41But there's also, as part of the big cycle question, is the problem that we
30:41But there's also, as part of the big cycle question, is the problem that we
30:41But there's also, as part of the big cycle question, is the problem that we
30:41But there's also, as part of the big cycle question, is the problem that we
30:41But there's also, as part of the big cycle question, is the problem that we
30:47have that we are not independent.
30:47have that we are not independent.
30:47have that we are not independent.
30:47have that we are not independent.
30:47have that we are not independent.
30:47have that we are not independent.
30:50Okay. We've had a hollowing out.
30:50Okay. We've had a hollowing out.
30:50Okay. We've had a hollowing out.
30:50Okay. We've had a hollowing out.
30:50Okay. We've had a hollowing out.
30:50Okay. We've had a hollowing out.
30:53This is the big question, you know, that we've had a hollowing out of manufacturing
30:53This is the big question, you know, that we've had a hollowing out of manufacturing
30:53This is the big question, you know, that we've had a hollowing out of manufacturing
30:53This is the big question, you know, that we've had a hollowing out of manufacturing
30:53This is the big question, you know, that we've had a hollowing out of manufacturing
30:53This is the big question, you know, that we've had a hollowing out of manufacturing
30:59the middle class and so on.
30:59the middle class and so on.
30:59the middle class and so on.
30:59the middle class and so on.
30:59the middle class and so on.
30:59the middle class and so on.
31:02Now, are we going to try to build that?
31:02Now, are we going to try to build that?
31:02Now, are we going to try to build that?
31:02Now, are we going to try to build that?
31:02Now, are we going to try to build that?
31:02Now, are we going to try to build that?
31:05And what is the plan to build that?
31:05And what is the plan to build that?
31:05And what is the plan to build that?
31:05And what is the plan to build that?
31:05And what is the plan to build that?
31:05And what is the plan to build that?
31:08Or are we going to continue on with large trade deficits?
31:08Or are we going to continue on with large trade deficits?
31:08Or are we going to continue on with large trade deficits?
31:08Or are we going to continue on with large trade deficits?
31:08Or are we going to continue on with large trade deficits?
31:08Or are we going to continue on with large trade deficits?
31:13And so you have unsustainable trade deficits that the United States has, which are capital
31:13And so you have unsustainable trade deficits that the United States has, which are capital
31:13And so you have unsustainable trade deficits that the United States has, which are capital
31:13And so you have unsustainable trade deficits that the United States has, which are capital
31:13And so you have unsustainable trade deficits that the United States has, which are capital
31:13And so you have unsustainable trade deficits that the United States has, which are capital
31:23surpluses. In other words, the dependence on foreign capital is the other side of those
31:23surpluses. In other words, the dependence on foreign capital is the other side of those
31:23surpluses. In other words, the dependence on foreign capital is the other side of those
31:23surpluses. In other words, the dependence on foreign capital is the other side of those
31:23surpluses. In other words, the dependence on foreign capital is the other side of those
31:23surpluses. In other words, the dependence on foreign capital is the other side of those
31:29trade balances, and that's unsustainable.
31:29trade balances, and that's unsustainable.
31:29trade balances, and that's unsustainable.
31:29trade balances, and that's unsustainable.
31:29trade balances, and that's unsustainable.
31:29trade balances, and that's unsustainable.
31:32So because that's unsustainable, you need some way of rectifying that.
31:32So because that's unsustainable, you need some way of rectifying that.
31:32So because that's unsustainable, you need some way of rectifying that.
31:32So because that's unsustainable, you need some way of rectifying that.
31:32So because that's unsustainable, you need some way of rectifying that.
31:32So because that's unsustainable, you need some way of rectifying that.
31:42Okay. So what is the plan plan to rectify that?
31:42Okay. So what is the plan plan to rectify that?
31:42Okay. So what is the plan plan to rectify that?
31:42Okay. So what is the plan plan to rectify that?
31:42Okay. So what is the plan plan to rectify that?
31:42Okay. So what is the plan plan to rectify that?
31:45Partially that plan can have trade tariffs.
31:45Partially that plan can have trade tariffs.
31:45Partially that plan can have trade tariffs.
31:45Partially that plan can have trade tariffs.
31:45Partially that plan can have trade tariffs.
31:45Partially that plan can have trade tariffs.
31:49I think they're totally valid, but it all has to be part of another greater
31:49I think they're totally valid, but it all has to be part of another greater
31:49I think they're totally valid, but it all has to be part of another greater
31:49I think they're totally valid, but it all has to be part of another greater
31:49I think they're totally valid, but it all has to be part of another greater
31:49I think they're totally valid, but it all has to be part of another greater
31:56plan, which is to develop the industries that we need to have developed, which we're
31:56plan, which is to develop the industries that we need to have developed, which we're
31:56plan, which is to develop the industries that we need to have developed, which we're
31:56plan, which is to develop the industries that we need to have developed, which we're
31:56plan, which is to develop the industries that we need to have developed, which we're
31:56plan, which is to develop the industries that we need to have developed, which we're
32:02seeing happen in a much more proactive way.
32:02seeing happen in a much more proactive way.
32:02seeing happen in a much more proactive way.
32:02seeing happen in a much more proactive way.
32:02seeing happen in a much more proactive way.
32:02seeing happen in a much more proactive way.
32:05In other words, you're seeing more government activity to create infrastructure, to bring in industries
32:05In other words, you're seeing more government activity to create infrastructure, to bring in industries
32:05In other words, you're seeing more government activity to create infrastructure, to bring in industries
32:05In other words, you're seeing more government activity to create infrastructure, to bring in industries
32:05In other words, you're seeing more government activity to create infrastructure, to bring in industries
32:05In other words, you're seeing more government activity to create infrastructure, to bring in industries
32:14and so on. You need that not only economically, but you need it geopolitically because
32:14and so on. You need that not only economically, but you need it geopolitically because
32:14and so on. You need that not only economically, but you need it geopolitically because
32:14and so on. You need that not only economically, but you need it geopolitically because
32:14and so on. You need that not only economically, but you need it geopolitically because
32:14and so on. You need that not only economically, but you need it geopolitically because
32:19you can't have dependencies. In other words, we're entering a world of greater conflict.
32:19you can't have dependencies. In other words, we're entering a world of greater conflict.
32:19you can't have dependencies. In other words, we're entering a world of greater conflict.
32:19you can't have dependencies. In other words, we're entering a world of greater conflict.
32:19you can't have dependencies. In other words, we're entering a world of greater conflict.
32:19you can't have dependencies. In other words, we're entering a world of greater conflict.
32:25We've moved from a multilateral world order to a power -based confrontational world economy.
32:25We've moved from a multilateral world order to a power -based confrontational world economy.
32:25We've moved from a multilateral world order to a power -based confrontational world economy.
32:25We've moved from a multilateral world order to a power -based confrontational world economy.
32:25We've moved from a multilateral world order to a power -based confrontational world economy.
32:25We've moved from a multilateral world order to a power -based confrontational world economy.
32:33And in that environment, everybody's threatening to cut off everything from, you know, the goods
32:33And in that environment, everybody's threatening to cut off everything from, you know, the goods
32:33And in that environment, everybody's threatening to cut off everything from, you know, the goods
32:33And in that environment, everybody's threatening to cut off everything from, you know, the goods
32:33And in that environment, everybody's threatening to cut off everything from, you know, the goods
32:33And in that environment, everybody's threatening to cut off everything from, you know, the goods
32:40and capital wars that we can have are threatening.
32:40and capital wars that we can have are threatening.
32:40and capital wars that we can have are threatening.
32:40and capital wars that we can have are threatening.
32:40and capital wars that we can have are threatening.
32:40and capital wars that we can have are threatening.
32:44And so you have have to build independence.
32:44And so you have have to build independence.
32:44And so you have have to build independence.
32:44And so you have have to build independence.
32:44And so you have have to build independence.
32:44And so you have have to build independence.
32:48And so that's part of a plan to try to build that independence.
32:48And so that's part of a plan to try to build that independence.
32:48And so that's part of a plan to try to build that independence.
32:48And so that's part of a plan to try to build that independence.
32:48And so that's part of a plan to try to build that independence.
32:48And so that's part of a plan to try to build that independence.
32:54So I think when I look at that, I don't think that's the problem.
32:54So I think when I look at that, I don't think that's the problem.
32:54So I think when I look at that, I don't think that's the problem.
32:54So I think when I look at that, I don't think that's the problem.
32:54So I think when I look at that, I don't think that's the problem.
32:54So I think when I look at that, I don't think that's the problem.
33:00I'd say, and it's misunderstood.
33:00I'd say, and it's misunderstood.
33:00I'd say, and it's misunderstood.
33:00I'd say, and it's misunderstood.
33:00I'd say, and it's misunderstood.
33:00I'd say, and it's misunderstood.
33:02So yes, I think people are misunderstanding that.
33:02So yes, I think people are misunderstanding that.
33:02So yes, I think people are misunderstanding that.
33:02So yes, I think people are misunderstanding that.
33:02So yes, I think people are misunderstanding that.
33:02So yes, I think people are misunderstanding that.
33:06And the important thing is we get the other things right.
33:06And the important thing is we get the other things right.
33:06And the important thing is we get the other things right.
33:06And the important thing is we get the other things right.
33:06And the important thing is we get the other things right.
33:06And the important thing is we get the other things right.
33:11Let's get down to 3%.
33:11Let's get down to 3%.
33:11Let's get down to 3%.
33:11Let's get down to 3%.
33:11Let's get down to 3%.
33:11Let's get down to 3%.
33:13And by the way, there's a bipartisan bill on this.
33:13And by the way, there's a bipartisan bill on this.
33:13And by the way, there's a bipartisan bill on this.
33:13And by the way, there's a bipartisan bill on this.
33:13And by the way, there's a bipartisan bill on this.
33:13And by the way, there's a bipartisan bill on this.
33:18And Scott Bessent has come out in favor of it.
33:18And Scott Bessent has come out in favor of it.
33:18And Scott Bessent has come out in favor of it.
33:18And Scott Bessent has come out in favor of it.
33:18And Scott Bessent has come out in favor of it.
33:18And Scott Bessent has come out in favor of it.
33:24I'm in favor of it.
33:24I'm in favor of it.
33:24I'm in favor of it.
33:24I'm in favor of it.
33:24I'm in favor of it.
33:24I'm in favor of it.
33:26I mean, lots of people are in favor of what I'll call the 3 %
33:26I mean, lots of people are in favor of what I'll call the 3 %
33:26I mean, lots of people are in favor of what I'll call the 3 %
33:26I mean, lots of people are in favor of what I'll call the 3 %
33:26I mean, lots of people are in favor of what I'll call the 3 %
33:26I mean, lots of people are in favor of what I'll call the 3 %
33:32three -part solution, 3 % of GDP, three parts, a bit from one thing, a
33:32three -part solution, 3 % of GDP, three parts, a bit from one thing, a
33:32three -part solution, 3 % of GDP, three parts, a bit from one thing, a
33:32three -part solution, 3 % of GDP, three parts, a bit from one thing, a
33:32three -part solution, 3 % of GDP, three parts, a bit from one thing, a
33:32three -part solution, 3 % of GDP, three parts, a bit from one thing, a
33:40bit from another, taxes, spending, and hopefully interest rates.
33:40bit from another, taxes, spending, and hopefully interest rates.
33:40bit from another, taxes, spending, and hopefully interest rates.
33:40bit from another, taxes, spending, and hopefully interest rates.
33:40bit from another, taxes, spending, and hopefully interest rates.
33:40bit from another, taxes, spending, and hopefully interest rates.
33:45And just to take the inflation question to its conclusion, at the State of the
33:45And just to take the inflation question to its conclusion, at the State of the
33:45And just to take the inflation question to its conclusion, at the State of the
33:45And just to take the inflation question to its conclusion, at the State of the
33:45And just to take the inflation question to its conclusion, at the State of the
33:45And just to take the inflation question to its conclusion, at the State of the
33:49Union this week, President Trump shared his vision, which is that tariffs can completely replace
33:49Union this week, President Trump shared his vision, which is that tariffs can completely replace
33:49Union this week, President Trump shared his vision, which is that tariffs can completely replace
33:49Union this week, President Trump shared his vision, which is that tariffs can completely replace
33:49Union this week, President Trump shared his vision, which is that tariffs can completely replace
33:49Union this week, President Trump shared his vision, which is that tariffs can completely replace
33:56an income tax in the United States.
33:56an income tax in the United States.
33:56an income tax in the United States.
33:56an income tax in the United States.
33:56an income tax in the United States.
33:56an income tax in the United States.
33:57Do you think that that's a feasible path?
33:57Do you think that that's a feasible path?
33:57Do you think that that's a feasible path?
33:57Do you think that that's a feasible path?
33:57Do you think that that's a feasible path?
33:57Do you think that that's a feasible path?
33:59Does it make sense at some point for tariffs, which are effectively a consumption tax?
33:59Does it make sense at some point for tariffs, which are effectively a consumption tax?
33:59Does it make sense at some point for tariffs, which are effectively a consumption tax?
33:59Does it make sense at some point for tariffs, which are effectively a consumption tax?
33:59Does it make sense at some point for tariffs, which are effectively a consumption tax?
33:59Does it make sense at some point for tariffs, which are effectively a consumption tax?
34:03I don't think it's going to, no, I don't think it's anywhere near that, both
34:03I don't think it's going to, no, I don't think it's anywhere near that, both
34:03I don't think it's going to, no, I don't think it's anywhere near that, both
34:03I don't think it's going to, no, I don't think it's anywhere near that, both
34:03I don't think it's going to, no, I don't think it's anywhere near that, both
34:03I don't think it's going to, no, I don't think it's anywhere near that, both
34:09because of the combination of the size and then the impact of that size.
34:09because of the combination of the size and then the impact of that size.
34:09because of the combination of the size and then the impact of that size.
34:09because of the combination of the size and then the impact of that size.
34:09because of the combination of the size and then the impact of that size.
34:09because of the combination of the size and then the impact of that size.
34:14Tariffs are regressive. And I think that there needs to be some, we have to
34:14Tariffs are regressive. And I think that there needs to be some, we have to
34:14Tariffs are regressive. And I think that there needs to be some, we have to
34:14Tariffs are regressive. And I think that there needs to be some, we have to
34:14Tariffs are regressive. And I think that there needs to be some, we have to
34:14Tariffs are regressive. And I think that there needs to be some, we have to
34:23deal with the wealth gap.
34:23deal with the wealth gap.
34:23deal with the wealth gap.
34:23deal with the wealth gap.
34:23deal with the wealth gap.
34:23deal with the wealth gap.
34:25To me, the wealth gap, the biggest problem of the wealth gap, which is a
34:25To me, the wealth gap, the biggest problem of the wealth gap, which is a
34:25To me, the wealth gap, the biggest problem of the wealth gap, which is a
34:25To me, the wealth gap, the biggest problem of the wealth gap, which is a
34:25To me, the wealth gap, the biggest problem of the wealth gap, which is a
34:25To me, the wealth gap, the biggest problem of the wealth gap, which is a
34:30big social problem, is also the productivity gap.
34:30big social problem, is also the productivity gap.
34:30big social problem, is also the productivity gap.
34:30big social problem, is also the productivity gap.
34:30big social problem, is also the productivity gap.
34:30big social problem, is also the productivity gap.
34:34And you have to make most people productive.
34:34And you have to make most people productive.
34:34And you have to make most people productive.
34:34And you have to make most people productive.
34:34And you have to make most people productive.
34:34And you have to make most people productive.
34:38And you have to do that through infrastructure and so on.
34:38And you have to do that through infrastructure and so on.
34:38And you have to do that through infrastructure and so on.
34:38And you have to do that through infrastructure and so on.
34:38And you have to do that through infrastructure and so on.
34:38And you have to do that through infrastructure and so on.
34:41And I don't think, I think that needs to be addressed.
34:41And I don't think, I think that needs to be addressed.
34:41And I don't think, I think that needs to be addressed.
34:41And I don't think, I think that needs to be addressed.
34:41And I don't think, I think that needs to be addressed.
34:41And I don't think, I think that needs to be addressed.
34:45It's a really important point you just made.
34:45It's a really important point you just made.
34:45It's a really important point you just made.
34:45It's a really important point you just made.
34:45It's a really important point you just made.
34:45It's a really important point you just made.
34:48I think my analysis indicates that nearly half of Americans either work for a government
34:48I think my analysis indicates that nearly half of Americans either work for a government
34:48I think my analysis indicates that nearly half of Americans either work for a government
34:48I think my analysis indicates that nearly half of Americans either work for a government
34:48I think my analysis indicates that nearly half of Americans either work for a government
34:48I think my analysis indicates that nearly half of Americans either work for a government
34:57agency, or a government service provider or contractor.
34:57agency, or a government service provider or contractor.
34:57agency, or a government service provider or contractor.
34:57agency, or a government service provider or contractor.
34:57agency, or a government service provider or contractor.
34:57agency, or a government service provider or contractor.
35:01The data over the past year is the federal workforce declined by 317 ,000 employees,
35:01The data over the past year is the federal workforce declined by 317 ,000 employees,
35:01The data over the past year is the federal workforce declined by 317 ,000 employees,
35:01The data over the past year is the federal workforce declined by 317 ,000 employees,
35:01The data over the past year is the federal workforce declined by 317 ,000 employees,
35:01The data over the past year is the federal workforce declined by 317 ,000 employees,
35:09roughly 14 % of the total federal workforce.
35:09roughly 14 % of the total federal workforce.
35:09roughly 14 % of the total federal workforce.
35:09roughly 14 % of the total federal workforce.
35:09roughly 14 % of the total federal workforce.
35:09roughly 14 % of the total federal workforce.
35:13As this administration has reduced the size of some of these agencies, reduced the size
35:13As this administration has reduced the size of some of these agencies, reduced the size
35:13As this administration has reduced the size of some of these agencies, reduced the size
35:13As this administration has reduced the size of some of these agencies, reduced the size
35:13As this administration has reduced the size of some of these agencies, reduced the size
35:13As this administration has reduced the size of some of these agencies, reduced the size
35:18of that workforce. What happens to those individuals?
35:18of that workforce. What happens to those individuals?
35:18of that workforce. What happens to those individuals?
35:18of that workforce. What happens to those individuals?
35:18of that workforce. What happens to those individuals?
35:18of that workforce. What happens to those individuals?
35:22Do they go work in the private workforce and become productive?
35:22Do they go work in the private workforce and become productive?
35:22Do they go work in the private workforce and become productive?
35:22Do they go work in the private workforce and become productive?
35:22Do they go work in the private workforce and become productive?
35:22Do they go work in the private workforce and become productive?
35:25Or do you think they're getting subsumed by other government agencies, either state or local
35:25Or do you think they're getting subsumed by other government agencies, either state or local
35:25Or do you think they're getting subsumed by other government agencies, either state or local
35:25Or do you think they're getting subsumed by other government agencies, either state or local
35:25Or do you think they're getting subsumed by other government agencies, either state or local
35:25Or do you think they're getting subsumed by other government agencies, either state or local
35:30or government service providers to do work that fundamentally is not productive to growing the
35:30or government service providers to do work that fundamentally is not productive to growing the
35:30or government service providers to do work that fundamentally is not productive to growing the
35:30or government service providers to do work that fundamentally is not productive to growing the
35:30or government service providers to do work that fundamentally is not productive to growing the
35:30or government service providers to do work that fundamentally is not productive to growing the
35:35economy? I haven't studied the numbers.
35:35economy? I haven't studied the numbers.
35:35economy? I haven't studied the numbers.
35:35economy? I haven't studied the numbers.
35:35economy? I haven't studied the numbers.
35:35economy? I haven't studied the numbers.
35:38I don't think I can adequately answer that.
35:38I don't think I can adequately answer that.
35:38I don't think I can adequately answer that.
35:38I don't think I can adequately answer that.
35:38I don't think I can adequately answer that.
35:38I don't think I can adequately answer that.
35:42I would say government is extremely inefficient.
35:42I would say government is extremely inefficient.
35:42I would say government is extremely inefficient.
35:42I would say government is extremely inefficient.
35:42I would say government is extremely inefficient.
35:42I would say government is extremely inefficient.
35:48It has a role. It has an important role.
35:48It has a role. It has an important role.
35:48It has a role. It has an important role.
35:48It has a role. It has an important role.
35:48It has a role. It has an important role.
35:48It has a role. It has an important role.
35:51But even that role it's handling very inefficiently.
35:51But even that role it's handling very inefficiently.
35:51But even that role it's handling very inefficiently.
35:51But even that role it's handling very inefficiently.
35:51But even that role it's handling very inefficiently.
35:51But even that role it's handling very inefficiently.
35:55Other governments handle that role of maybe education, some of these things in a better
35:55Other governments handle that role of maybe education, some of these things in a better
35:55Other governments handle that role of maybe education, some of these things in a better
35:55Other governments handle that role of maybe education, some of these things in a better
35:55Other governments handle that role of maybe education, some of these things in a better
35:55Other governments handle that role of maybe education, some of these things in a better
36:03way. We need fundamental, we need, you know, best thing you could invest in is
36:03way. We need fundamental, we need, you know, best thing you could invest in is
36:03way. We need fundamental, we need, you know, best thing you could invest in is
36:03way. We need fundamental, we need, you know, best thing you could invest in is
36:03way. We need fundamental, we need, you know, best thing you could invest in is
36:03way. We need fundamental, we need, you know, best thing you could invest in is
36:08education. But anyway, where they go and what they do from the government and, and,
36:08education. But anyway, where they go and what they do from the government and, and,
36:08education. But anyway, where they go and what they do from the government and, and,
36:08education. But anyway, where they go and what they do from the government and, and,
36:08education. But anyway, where they go and what they do from the government and, and,
36:08education. But anyway, where they go and what they do from the government and, and,
36:15you know, the other inefficiencies is a problem.
36:15you know, the other inefficiencies is a problem.
36:15you know, the other inefficiencies is a problem.
36:15you know, the other inefficiencies is a problem.
36:15you know, the other inefficiencies is a problem.
36:15you know, the other inefficiencies is a problem.
36:19The one thing that's good about the system is that - ...
36:19The one thing that's good about the system is that - ...
36:19The one thing that's good about the system is that - ...
36:19The one thing that's good about the system is that - ...
36:19The one thing that's good about the system is that - ...
36:19The one thing that's good about the system is that - ...
36:24The capitalist system, in a sense, is it doesn't live if it can't, if somebody
36:24The capitalist system, in a sense, is it doesn't live if it can't, if somebody
36:24The capitalist system, in a sense, is it doesn't live if it can't, if somebody
36:24The capitalist system, in a sense, is it doesn't live if it can't, if somebody
36:24The capitalist system, in a sense, is it doesn't live if it can't, if somebody
36:24The capitalist system, in a sense, is it doesn't live if it can't, if somebody
36:29either won't bet on it or it doesn't make a profit.
36:29either won't bet on it or it doesn't make a profit.
36:29either won't bet on it or it doesn't make a profit.
36:29either won't bet on it or it doesn't make a profit.
36:29either won't bet on it or it doesn't make a profit.
36:29either won't bet on it or it doesn't make a profit.
36:32So, yeah, so I think wherever it goes, wherever those people go, there are just
36:32So, yeah, so I think wherever it goes, wherever those people go, there are just
36:32So, yeah, so I think wherever it goes, wherever those people go, there are just
36:32So, yeah, so I think wherever it goes, wherever those people go, there are just
36:32So, yeah, so I think wherever it goes, wherever those people go, there are just
36:32So, yeah, so I think wherever it goes, wherever those people go, there are just
36:41so many inefficient people and inefficient systems.
36:41so many inefficient people and inefficient systems.
36:41so many inefficient people and inefficient systems.
36:41so many inefficient people and inefficient systems.
36:41so many inefficient people and inefficient systems.
36:41so many inefficient people and inefficient systems.
36:46Is there not enough productivity -driven economic growth in this nation at this time to
36:46Is there not enough productivity -driven economic growth in this nation at this time to
36:46Is there not enough productivity -driven economic growth in this nation at this time to
36:46Is there not enough productivity -driven economic growth in this nation at this time to
36:46Is there not enough productivity -driven economic growth in this nation at this time to
36:46Is there not enough productivity -driven economic growth in this nation at this time to
36:53give more people the opportunity to improve their income, improve their wealth, improve their livelihoods?
36:53give more people the opportunity to improve their income, improve their wealth, improve their livelihoods?
36:53give more people the opportunity to improve their income, improve their wealth, improve their livelihoods?
36:53give more people the opportunity to improve their income, improve their wealth, improve their livelihoods?
36:53give more people the opportunity to improve their income, improve their wealth, improve their livelihoods?
36:53give more people the opportunity to improve their income, improve their wealth, improve their livelihoods?
37:00Is that the fundamental issue we're dealing with at the moment?
37:00Is that the fundamental issue we're dealing with at the moment?
37:00Is that the fundamental issue we're dealing with at the moment?
37:00Is that the fundamental issue we're dealing with at the moment?
37:00Is that the fundamental issue we're dealing with at the moment?
37:00Is that the fundamental issue we're dealing with at the moment?
37:04Or is it that, you know, people aren't prepared or educated to be productive and
37:04Or is it that, you know, people aren't prepared or educated to be productive and
37:04Or is it that, you know, people aren't prepared or educated to be productive and
37:04Or is it that, you know, people aren't prepared or educated to be productive and
37:04Or is it that, you know, people aren't prepared or educated to be productive and
37:04Or is it that, you know, people aren't prepared or educated to be productive and
37:10therefore the system itself has failed them?
37:10therefore the system itself has failed them?
37:10therefore the system itself has failed them?
37:10therefore the system itself has failed them?
37:10therefore the system itself has failed them?
37:10therefore the system itself has failed them?
37:13There are three things, basically, that you need to do to be successful.
37:13There are three things, basically, that you need to do to be successful.
37:13There are three things, basically, that you need to do to be successful.
37:13There are three things, basically, that you need to do to be successful.
37:13There are three things, basically, that you need to do to be successful.
37:13There are three things, basically, that you need to do to be successful.
37:16You have to first educate your children well so that they are capable of being
37:16You have to first educate your children well so that they are capable of being
37:16You have to first educate your children well so that they are capable of being
37:16You have to first educate your children well so that they are capable of being
37:16You have to first educate your children well so that they are capable of being
37:16You have to first educate your children well so that they are capable of being
37:23productive and also educate them in civility so that they are civil with each other.
37:23productive and also educate them in civility so that they are civil with each other.
37:23productive and also educate them in civility so that they are civil with each other.
37:23productive and also educate them in civility so that they are civil with each other.
37:23productive and also educate them in civility so that they are civil with each other.
37:23productive and also educate them in civility so that they are civil with each other.
37:30The second is then they have to come out to an environment that is an
37:30The second is then they have to come out to an environment that is an
37:30The second is then they have to come out to an environment that is an
37:30The second is then they have to come out to an environment that is an
37:30The second is then they have to come out to an environment that is an
37:30The second is then they have to come out to an environment that is an
37:36orderly, civil environment that people can compete and work with each other to be productive,
37:36orderly, civil environment that people can compete and work with each other to be productive,
37:36orderly, civil environment that people can compete and work with each other to be productive,
37:36orderly, civil environment that people can compete and work with each other to be productive,
37:36orderly, civil environment that people can compete and work with each other to be productive,
37:36orderly, civil environment that people can compete and work with each other to be productive,
37:46that works for the most people.
37:46that works for the most people.
37:46that works for the most people.
37:46that works for the most people.
37:46that works for the most people.
37:46that works for the most people.
37:48And the third thing is you have to stay out of wars.
37:48And the third thing is you have to stay out of wars.
37:48And the third thing is you have to stay out of wars.
37:48And the third thing is you have to stay out of wars.
37:48And the third thing is you have to stay out of wars.
37:48And the third thing is you have to stay out of wars.
37:52You have to stay, you don't have to have no civil war and no international
37:52You have to stay, you don't have to have no civil war and no international
37:52You have to stay, you don't have to have no civil war and no international
37:52You have to stay, you don't have to have no civil war and no international
37:52You have to stay, you don't have to have no civil war and no international
37:52You have to stay, you don't have to have no civil war and no international
37:57war. If you do those three things right, you will have a successful country.
37:57war. If you do those three things right, you will have a successful country.
37:57war. If you do those three things right, you will have a successful country.
37:57war. If you do those three things right, you will have a successful country.
37:57war. If you do those three things right, you will have a successful country.
37:57war. If you do those three things right, you will have a successful country.
38:01That's all throughout history. Okay, we're having problems with those.
38:01That's all throughout history. Okay, we're having problems with those.
38:01That's all throughout history. Okay, we're having problems with those.
38:01That's all throughout history. Okay, we're having problems with those.
38:01That's all throughout history. Okay, we're having problems with those.
38:01That's all throughout history. Okay, we're having problems with those.
38:06And are those three things the antidote to some of the rising movements that we're
38:06And are those three things the antidote to some of the rising movements that we're
38:06And are those three things the antidote to some of the rising movements that we're
38:06And are those three things the antidote to some of the rising movements that we're
38:06And are those three things the antidote to some of the rising movements that we're
38:06And are those three things the antidote to some of the rising movements that we're
38:12seeing in increased unionization and effects that unions are having on the political process, which
38:12seeing in increased unionization and effects that unions are having on the political process, which
38:12seeing in increased unionization and effects that unions are having on the political process, which
38:12seeing in increased unionization and effects that unions are having on the political process, which
38:12seeing in increased unionization and effects that unions are having on the political process, which
38:12seeing in increased unionization and effects that unions are having on the political process, which
38:19is also leading to these rises in socialism and support for socialist movements in the
38:19is also leading to these rises in socialism and support for socialist movements in the
38:19is also leading to these rises in socialism and support for socialist movements in the
38:19is also leading to these rises in socialism and support for socialist movements in the
38:19is also leading to these rises in socialism and support for socialist movements in the
38:19is also leading to these rises in socialism and support for socialist movements in the
38:25United States, as well as the wealth taxes, which from the view that's shared by
38:25United States, as well as the wealth taxes, which from the view that's shared by
38:25United States, as well as the wealth taxes, which from the view that's shared by
38:25United States, as well as the wealth taxes, which from the view that's shared by
38:25United States, as well as the wealth taxes, which from the view that's shared by
38:25United States, as well as the wealth taxes, which from the view that's shared by
38:31those participating in those movements, they are meant to solve income inequality, wealth gap issues
38:31those participating in those movements, they are meant to solve income inequality, wealth gap issues
38:31those participating in those movements, they are meant to solve income inequality, wealth gap issues
38:31those participating in those movements, they are meant to solve income inequality, wealth gap issues
38:31those participating in those movements, they are meant to solve income inequality, wealth gap issues
38:31those participating in those movements, they are meant to solve income inequality, wealth gap issues
38:36that we're seeing in the United States.
38:36that we're seeing in the United States.
38:36that we're seeing in the United States.
38:36that we're seeing in the United States.
38:36that we're seeing in the United States.
38:36that we're seeing in the United States.
38:37So that's their solution. Is the solution to those movements, education and civility, creating a
38:37So that's their solution. Is the solution to those movements, education and civility, creating a
38:37So that's their solution. Is the solution to those movements, education and civility, creating a
38:37So that's their solution. Is the solution to those movements, education and civility, creating a
38:37So that's their solution. Is the solution to those movements, education and civility, creating a
38:37So that's their solution. Is the solution to those movements, education and civility, creating a
38:45civil environment and staying out of wars?
38:45civil environment and staying out of wars?
38:45civil environment and staying out of wars?
38:45civil environment and staying out of wars?
38:45civil environment and staying out of wars?
38:45civil environment and staying out of wars?
38:46Is that all we need to do to make this successful?
38:46Is that all we need to do to make this successful?
38:46Is that all we need to do to make this successful?
38:46Is that all we need to do to make this successful?
38:46Is that all we need to do to make this successful?
38:46Is that all we need to do to make this successful?
38:49Or is there more to the equation?
38:49Or is there more to the equation?
38:49Or is there more to the equation?
38:49Or is there more to the equation?
38:49Or is there more to the equation?
38:49Or is there more to the equation?
38:50That's what we need is to stop fighting.
38:50That's what we need is to stop fighting.
38:50That's what we need is to stop fighting.
38:50That's what we need is to stop fighting.
38:50That's what we need is to stop fighting.
38:50That's what we need is to stop fighting.
38:56Okay, we're now at a stage where we have irreconcilable differences.
38:56Okay, we're now at a stage where we have irreconcilable differences.
38:56Okay, we're now at a stage where we have irreconcilable differences.
38:56Okay, we're now at a stage where we have irreconcilable differences.
38:56Okay, we're now at a stage where we have irreconcilable differences.
38:56Okay, we're now at a stage where we have irreconcilable differences.
39:02In other words, when the causes people are behind are more important to them than
39:02In other words, when the causes people are behind are more important to them than
39:02In other words, when the causes people are behind are more important to them than
39:02In other words, when the causes people are behind are more important to them than
39:02In other words, when the causes people are behind are more important to them than
39:02In other words, when the causes people are behind are more important to them than
39:11the system, the system is in jeopardy.
39:11the system, the system is in jeopardy.
39:11the system, the system is in jeopardy.
39:11the system, the system is in jeopardy.
39:11the system, the system is in jeopardy.
39:11the system, the system is in jeopardy.
39:15Our system is in jeopardy because people will not accept the system or the alternatives.
39:15Our system is in jeopardy because people will not accept the system or the alternatives.
39:15Our system is in jeopardy because people will not accept the system or the alternatives.
39:15Our system is in jeopardy because people will not accept the system or the alternatives.
39:15Our system is in jeopardy because people will not accept the system or the alternatives.
39:15Our system is in jeopardy because people will not accept the system or the alternatives.
39:28And so they're going to fight.
39:28And so they're going to fight.
39:28And so they're going to fight.
39:28And so they're going to fight.
39:28And so they're going to fight.
39:28And so they're going to fight.
39:30You know, I think when we have, we're going to have the midterm elections.
39:30You know, I think when we have, we're going to have the midterm elections.
39:30You know, I think when we have, we're going to have the midterm elections.
39:30You know, I think when we have, we're going to have the midterm elections.
39:30You know, I think when we have, we're going to have the midterm elections.
39:30You know, I think when we have, we're going to have the midterm elections.
39:36You're going to go past the midterm elections with probably that Democrats will take the
39:36You're going to go past the midterm elections with probably that Democrats will take the
39:36You're going to go past the midterm elections with probably that Democrats will take the
39:36You're going to go past the midterm elections with probably that Democrats will take the
39:36You're going to go past the midterm elections with probably that Democrats will take the
39:36You're going to go past the midterm elections with probably that Democrats will take the
39:42house and be, and maybe, I don't know, it's going to be difficult.
39:42house and be, and maybe, I don't know, it's going to be difficult.
39:42house and be, and maybe, I don't know, it's going to be difficult.
39:42house and be, and maybe, I don't know, it's going to be difficult.
39:42house and be, and maybe, I don't know, it's going to be difficult.
39:42house and be, and maybe, I don't know, it's going to be difficult.
39:45And you know what? Nobody can succeed because everybody's going to be fighting.
39:45And you know what? Nobody can succeed because everybody's going to be fighting.
39:45And you know what? Nobody can succeed because everybody's going to be fighting.
39:45And you know what? Nobody can succeed because everybody's going to be fighting.
39:45And you know what? Nobody can succeed because everybody's going to be fighting.
39:45And you know what? Nobody can succeed because everybody's going to be fighting.
39:51They're going to all be fighting.
39:51They're going to all be fighting.
39:51They're going to all be fighting.
39:51They're going to all be fighting.
39:51They're going to all be fighting.
39:51They're going to all be fighting.
39:53Okay. So how does that affect productivity?
39:53Okay. So how does that affect productivity?
39:53Okay. So how does that affect productivity?
39:53Okay. So how does that affect productivity?
39:53Okay. So how does that affect productivity?
39:53Okay. So how does that affect productivity?
39:56Okay. And then when you deal with things like, how do you get a good
39:56Okay. And then when you deal with things like, how do you get a good
39:56Okay. And then when you deal with things like, how do you get a good
39:56Okay. And then when you deal with things like, how do you get a good
39:56Okay. And then when you deal with things like, how do you get a good
39:56Okay. And then when you deal with things like, how do you get a good
40:00education system? So you have - now almost the mob disorder, mob disorder and inefficiency.
40:00education system? So you have - now almost the mob disorder, mob disorder and inefficiency.
40:00education system? So you have - now almost the mob disorder, mob disorder and inefficiency.
40:00education system? So you have - now almost the mob disorder, mob disorder and inefficiency.
40:00education system? So you have - now almost the mob disorder, mob disorder and inefficiency.
40:00education system? So you have - now almost the mob disorder, mob disorder and inefficiency.
40:10Nobody's allowed to take charge of this.
40:10Nobody's allowed to take charge of this.
40:10Nobody's allowed to take charge of this.
40:10Nobody's allowed to take charge of this.
40:10Nobody's allowed to take charge of this.
40:10Nobody's allowed to take charge of this.
40:13If you go back in history, Plato, I think it was like 350 BC, wrote
40:13If you go back in history, Plato, I think it was like 350 BC, wrote
40:13If you go back in history, Plato, I think it was like 350 BC, wrote
40:13If you go back in history, Plato, I think it was like 350 BC, wrote
40:13If you go back in history, Plato, I think it was like 350 BC, wrote
40:13If you go back in history, Plato, I think it was like 350 BC, wrote
40:20about the cycle of democracies and the threat to democracies.
40:20about the cycle of democracies and the threat to democracies.
40:20about the cycle of democracies and the threat to democracies.
40:20about the cycle of democracies and the threat to democracies.
40:20about the cycle of democracies and the threat to democracies.
40:20about the cycle of democracies and the threat to democracies.
40:25What's happening now is similar to Julius Caesar and Rome and being stabbed in the
40:25What's happening now is similar to Julius Caesar and Rome and being stabbed in the
40:25What's happening now is similar to Julius Caesar and Rome and being stabbed in the
40:25What's happening now is similar to Julius Caesar and Rome and being stabbed in the
40:25What's happening now is similar to Julius Caesar and Rome and being stabbed in the
40:25What's happening now is similar to Julius Caesar and Rome and being stabbed in the
40:36Senate. What you need is you need a bipartisan.
40:36Senate. What you need is you need a bipartisan.
40:36Senate. What you need is you need a bipartisan.
40:36Senate. What you need is you need a bipartisan.
40:36Senate. What you need is you need a bipartisan.
40:36Senate. What you need is you need a bipartisan.
40:42You need the country to have a strong, almost a strong leader.
40:42You need the country to have a strong, almost a strong leader.
40:42You need the country to have a strong, almost a strong leader.
40:42You need the country to have a strong, almost a strong leader.
40:42You need the country to have a strong, almost a strong leader.
40:42You need the country to have a strong, almost a strong leader.
40:49We do need a strong leader to get the reforms done to make the country
40:49We do need a strong leader to get the reforms done to make the country
40:49We do need a strong leader to get the reforms done to make the country
40:49We do need a strong leader to get the reforms done to make the country
40:49We do need a strong leader to get the reforms done to make the country
40:49We do need a strong leader to get the reforms done to make the country
40:55work well. But I mean, so how do you force this mob of people who
40:55work well. But I mean, so how do you force this mob of people who
40:55work well. But I mean, so how do you force this mob of people who
40:55work well. But I mean, so how do you force this mob of people who
40:55work well. But I mean, so how do you force this mob of people who
40:55work well. But I mean, so how do you force this mob of people who
41:03are behaving this way, including in the elections and so fragment to create order?
41:03are behaving this way, including in the elections and so fragment to create order?
41:03are behaving this way, including in the elections and so fragment to create order?
41:03are behaving this way, including in the elections and so fragment to create order?
41:03are behaving this way, including in the elections and so fragment to create order?
41:03are behaving this way, including in the elections and so fragment to create order?
41:10So you need a tough leader.
41:10So you need a tough leader.
41:10So you need a tough leader.
41:10So you need a tough leader.
41:10So you need a tough leader.
41:10So you need a tough leader.
41:12We'll force them to do different, force things to difficult things and not fight with
41:12We'll force them to do different, force things to difficult things and not fight with
41:12We'll force them to do different, force things to difficult things and not fight with
41:12We'll force them to do different, force things to difficult things and not fight with
41:12We'll force them to do different, force things to difficult things and not fight with
41:12We'll force them to do different, force things to difficult things and not fight with
41:18each other and focus on being productive.
41:18each other and focus on being productive.
41:18each other and focus on being productive.
41:18each other and focus on being productive.
41:18each other and focus on being productive.
41:18each other and focus on being productive.
41:22That's what you need. I think it sounds a little like there may be this
41:22That's what you need. I think it sounds a little like there may be this
41:22That's what you need. I think it sounds a little like there may be this
41:22That's what you need. I think it sounds a little like there may be this
41:22That's what you need. I think it sounds a little like there may be this
41:22That's what you need. I think it sounds a little like there may be this
41:26inevitable path of the choice that no one wants to make between some form of
41:26inevitable path of the choice that no one wants to make between some form of
41:26inevitable path of the choice that no one wants to make between some form of
41:26inevitable path of the choice that no one wants to make between some form of
41:26inevitable path of the choice that no one wants to make between some form of
41:26inevitable path of the choice that no one wants to make between some form of
41:32socialism and some form of fascism.
41:32socialism and some form of fascism.
41:32socialism and some form of fascism.
41:32socialism and some form of fascism.
41:32socialism and some form of fascism.
41:32socialism and some form of fascism.
41:34Is that where this goes?
41:34Is that where this goes?
41:34Is that where this goes?
41:34Is that where this goes?
41:34Is that where this goes?
41:34Is that where this goes?
41:35I think you were, we're moving toward that war.
41:35I think you were, we're moving toward that war.
41:35I think you were, we're moving toward that war.
41:35I think you were, we're moving toward that war.
41:35I think you were, we're moving toward that war.
41:35I think you were, we're moving toward that war.
41:39We're in that war. We're in what's state, what I call stage five of a
41:39We're in that war. We're in what's state, what I call stage five of a
41:39We're in that war. We're in what's state, what I call stage five of a
41:39We're in that war. We're in what's state, what I call stage five of a
41:39We're in that war. We're in what's state, what I call stage five of a
41:39We're in that war. We're in what's state, what I call stage five of a
41:43cycle. Okay. In the book, I describe the pattern that's happened over and over again.
41:43cycle. Okay. In the book, I describe the pattern that's happened over and over again.
41:43cycle. Okay. In the book, I describe the pattern that's happened over and over again.
41:43cycle. Okay. In the book, I describe the pattern that's happened over and over again.
41:43cycle. Okay. In the book, I describe the pattern that's happened over and over again.
41:43cycle. Okay. In the book, I describe the pattern that's happened over and over again.
41:48And when you get to this position, when there are a bad finances combined with
41:48And when you get to this position, when there are a bad finances combined with
41:48And when you get to this position, when there are a bad finances combined with
41:48And when you get to this position, when there are a bad finances combined with
41:48And when you get to this position, when there are a bad finances combined with
41:48And when you get to this position, when there are a bad finances combined with
41:57large wealth and values gaps and irreconcilable differences, and you have external threats as well
41:57large wealth and values gaps and irreconcilable differences, and you have external threats as well
41:57large wealth and values gaps and irreconcilable differences, and you have external threats as well
41:57large wealth and values gaps and irreconcilable differences, and you have external threats as well
41:57large wealth and values gaps and irreconcilable differences, and you have external threats as well
41:57large wealth and values gaps and irreconcilable differences, and you have external threats as well
42:08as domestic threats, you have this dynamic.
42:08as domestic threats, you have this dynamic.
42:08as domestic threats, you have this dynamic.
42:08as domestic threats, you have this dynamic.
42:08as domestic threats, you have this dynamic.
42:08as domestic threats, you have this dynamic.
42:12I think that's where we are.
42:12I think that's where we are.
42:12I think that's where we are.
42:12I think that's where we are.
42:12I think that's where we are.
42:12I think that's where we are.
42:14I'm like a mechanic. My goal, I'm not ideological.
42:14I'm like a mechanic. My goal, I'm not ideological.
42:14I'm like a mechanic. My goal, I'm not ideological.
42:14I'm like a mechanic. My goal, I'm not ideological.
42:14I'm like a mechanic. My goal, I'm not ideological.
42:14I'm like a mechanic. My goal, I'm not ideological.
42:17I'm just a practical guy trying to make money in the markets and trying to
42:17I'm just a practical guy trying to make money in the markets and trying to
42:17I'm just a practical guy trying to make money in the markets and trying to
42:17I'm just a practical guy trying to make money in the markets and trying to
42:17I'm just a practical guy trying to make money in the markets and trying to
42:17I'm just a practical guy trying to make money in the markets and trying to
42:21describe things. And that's what it looks like.
42:21describe things. And that's what it looks like.
42:21describe things. And that's what it looks like.
42:21describe things. And that's what it looks like.
42:21describe things. And that's what it looks like.
42:21describe things. And that's what it looks like.
42:23I think when we look at the bubble question on AI, what a lot of
42:23I think when we look at the bubble question on AI, what a lot of
42:23I think when we look at the bubble question on AI, what a lot of
42:23I think when we look at the bubble question on AI, what a lot of
42:23I think when we look at the bubble question on AI, what a lot of
42:23I think when we look at the bubble question on AI, what a lot of
42:27people don't realize in bubbles is that through all technologies, they think that they are
42:27people don't realize in bubbles is that through all technologies, they think that they are
42:27people don't realize in bubbles is that through all technologies, they think that they are
42:27people don't realize in bubbles is that through all technologies, they think that they are
42:27people don't realize in bubbles is that through all technologies, they think that they are
42:27people don't realize in bubbles is that through all technologies, they think that they are
42:37betting on the technology when they buy the stocks in the companies.
42:37betting on the technology when they buy the stocks in the companies.
42:37betting on the technology when they buy the stocks in the companies.
42:37betting on the technology when they buy the stocks in the companies.
42:37betting on the technology when they buy the stocks in the companies.
42:37betting on the technology when they buy the stocks in the companies.
42:42That's not true. Okay. There's a giant difference between the behavior of the companies and
42:42That's not true. Okay. There's a giant difference between the behavior of the companies and
42:42That's not true. Okay. There's a giant difference between the behavior of the companies and
42:42That's not true. Okay. There's a giant difference between the behavior of the companies and
42:42That's not true. Okay. There's a giant difference between the behavior of the companies and
42:42That's not true. Okay. There's a giant difference between the behavior of the companies and
42:50the behavior of the technologies.
42:50the behavior of the technologies.
42:50the behavior of the technologies.
42:50the behavior of the technologies.
42:50the behavior of the technologies.
42:50the behavior of the technologies.
42:53And that the norm is in these, is that a lot of companies won't survive
42:53And that the norm is in these, is that a lot of companies won't survive
42:53And that the norm is in these, is that a lot of companies won't survive
42:53And that the norm is in these, is that a lot of companies won't survive
42:53And that the norm is in these, is that a lot of companies won't survive
42:53And that the norm is in these, is that a lot of companies won't survive
42:58in the start. Very small percentage and they'll all fight and so on.
42:58in the start. Very small percentage and they'll all fight and so on.
42:58in the start. Very small percentage and they'll all fight and so on.
42:58in the start. Very small percentage and they'll all fight and so on.
42:58in the start. Very small percentage and they'll all fight and so on.
42:58in the start. Very small percentage and they'll all fight and so on.
43:03But the technologies will go on and it'll be great.
43:03But the technologies will go on and it'll be great.
43:03But the technologies will go on and it'll be great.
43:03But the technologies will go on and it'll be great.
43:03But the technologies will go on and it'll be great.
43:03But the technologies will go on and it'll be great.
43:06The technologies will. So I want to emphasize to people that dynamic.
43:06The technologies will. So I want to emphasize to people that dynamic.
43:06The technologies will. So I want to emphasize to people that dynamic.
43:06The technologies will. So I want to emphasize to people that dynamic.
43:06The technologies will. So I want to emphasize to people that dynamic.
43:06The technologies will. So I want to emphasize to people that dynamic.
43:12And I can go on and describe, you know, what it's like.
43:12And I can go on and describe, you know, what it's like.
43:12And I can go on and describe, you know, what it's like.
43:12And I can go on and describe, you know, what it's like.
43:12And I can go on and describe, you know, what it's like.
43:12And I can go on and describe, you know, what it's like.
43:17Of course, we've seen it to some extent with the 2000 bubble in the technologies
43:17Of course, we've seen it to some extent with the 2000 bubble in the technologies
43:17Of course, we've seen it to some extent with the 2000 bubble in the technologies
43:17Of course, we've seen it to some extent with the 2000 bubble in the technologies
43:17Of course, we've seen it to some extent with the 2000 bubble in the technologies
43:17Of course, we've seen it to some extent with the 2000 bubble in the technologies
43:23and what went on. But even if I describe what it was like in the
43:23and what went on. But even if I describe what it was like in the
43:23and what went on. But even if I describe what it was like in the
43:23and what went on. But even if I describe what it was like in the
43:23and what went on. But even if I describe what it was like in the
43:23and what went on. But even if I describe what it was like in the
43:27late 20s, you know, it's just, it was unbelievable, but the technologies will go on,
43:27late 20s, you know, it's just, it was unbelievable, but the technologies will go on,
43:27late 20s, you know, it's just, it was unbelievable, but the technologies will go on,
43:27late 20s, you know, it's just, it was unbelievable, but the technologies will go on,
43:27late 20s, you know, it's just, it was unbelievable, but the technologies will go on,
43:27late 20s, you know, it's just, it was unbelievable, but the technologies will go on,
43:32but the companies won't necessarily go on.
43:32but the companies won't necessarily go on.
43:32but the companies won't necessarily go on.
43:32but the companies won't necessarily go on.
43:32but the companies won't necessarily go on.
43:32but the companies won't necessarily go on.
43:35And so when I'm looking at that, that has big implications.
43:35And so when I'm looking at that, that has big implications.
43:35And so when I'm looking at that, that has big implications.
43:35And so when I'm looking at that, that has big implications.
43:35And so when I'm looking at that, that has big implications.
43:35And so when I'm looking at that, that has big implications.
43:41Right now, it looks to me like AI basically is eating everything, and it might
43:41Right now, it looks to me like AI basically is eating everything, and it might
43:41Right now, it looks to me like AI basically is eating everything, and it might
43:41Right now, it looks to me like AI basically is eating everything, and it might
43:41Right now, it looks to me like AI basically is eating everything, and it might
43:41Right now, it looks to me like AI basically is eating everything, and it might
43:49eat itself. And what I mean by that is not produce adequate profits.
43:49eat itself. And what I mean by that is not produce adequate profits.
43:49eat itself. And what I mean by that is not produce adequate profits.
43:49eat itself. And what I mean by that is not produce adequate profits.
43:49eat itself. And what I mean by that is not produce adequate profits.
43:49eat itself. And what I mean by that is not produce adequate profits.
43:58We can't take just a domestic view of that.
43:58We can't take just a domestic view of that.
43:58We can't take just a domestic view of that.
43:58We can't take just a domestic view of that.
43:58We can't take just a domestic view of that.
43:58We can't take just a domestic view of that.
44:01We have to look also at what's happening in China and make interesting distinctions there.
44:01We have to look also at what's happening in China and make interesting distinctions there.
44:01We have to look also at what's happening in China and make interesting distinctions there.
44:01We have to look also at what's happening in China and make interesting distinctions there.
44:01We have to look also at what's happening in China and make interesting distinctions there.
44:01We have to look also at what's happening in China and make interesting distinctions there.
44:07You know, there's a difference in philosophy that's carried through in the economy of how
44:07You know, there's a difference in philosophy that's carried through in the economy of how
44:07You know, there's a difference in philosophy that's carried through in the economy of how
44:07You know, there's a difference in philosophy that's carried through in the economy of how
44:07You know, there's a difference in philosophy that's carried through in the economy of how
44:07You know, there's a difference in philosophy that's carried through in the economy of how
44:14the economies of the United States and China work in that we have basically primarily
44:14the economies of the United States and China work in that we have basically primarily
44:14the economies of the United States and China work in that we have basically primarily
44:14the economies of the United States and China work in that we have basically primarily
44:14the economies of the United States and China work in that we have basically primarily
44:14the economies of the United States and China work in that we have basically primarily
44:19a profit -based system. They have a system in which they might believe that profits
44:19a profit -based system. They have a system in which they might believe that profits
44:19a profit -based system. They have a system in which they might believe that profits
44:19a profit -based system. They have a system in which they might believe that profits
44:19a profit -based system. They have a system in which they might believe that profits
44:19a profit -based system. They have a system in which they might believe that profits
44:27are a second consideration. They're not necessarily needed in order to achieve the best results.
44:27are a second consideration. They're not necessarily needed in order to achieve the best results.
44:27are a second consideration. They're not necessarily needed in order to achieve the best results.
44:27are a second consideration. They're not necessarily needed in order to achieve the best results.
44:27are a second consideration. They're not necessarily needed in order to achieve the best results.
44:27are a second consideration. They're not necessarily needed in order to achieve the best results.
44:33For example, in China, they would say usage of AI is fantastic.
44:33For example, in China, they would say usage of AI is fantastic.
44:33For example, in China, they would say usage of AI is fantastic.
44:33For example, in China, they would say usage of AI is fantastic.
44:33For example, in China, they would say usage of AI is fantastic.
44:33For example, in China, they would say usage of AI is fantastic.
44:42So it should be like electricity or something, and let's make it free for everyone.
44:42So it should be like electricity or something, and let's make it free for everyone.
44:42So it should be like electricity or something, and let's make it free for everyone.
44:42So it should be like electricity or something, and let's make it free for everyone.
44:42So it should be like electricity or something, and let's make it free for everyone.
44:42So it should be like electricity or something, and let's make it free for everyone.
44:48And let's make it open source for everyone.
44:48And let's make it open source for everyone.
44:48And let's make it open source for everyone.
44:48And let's make it open source for everyone.
44:48And let's make it open source for everyone.
44:48And let's make it open source for everyone.
44:52Okay, and they might get much higher usage, and they'll get their productivity gains through
44:52Okay, and they might get much higher usage, and they'll get their productivity gains through
44:52Okay, and they might get much higher usage, and they'll get their productivity gains through
44:52Okay, and they might get much higher usage, and they'll get their productivity gains through
44:52Okay, and they might get much higher usage, and they'll get their productivity gains through
44:52Okay, and they might get much higher usage, and they'll get their productivity gains through
44:57the usage. And we have a profit system to pay back.
44:57the usage. And we have a profit system to pay back.
44:57the usage. And we have a profit system to pay back.
44:57the usage. And we have a profit system to pay back.
44:57the usage. And we have a profit system to pay back.
44:57the usage. And we have a profit system to pay back.
45:04Okay, well, now we're in one world.
45:04Okay, well, now we're in one world.
45:04Okay, well, now we're in one world.
45:04Okay, well, now we're in one world.
45:04Okay, well, now we're in one world.
45:04Okay, well, now we're in one world.
45:06How do you compete in that world?
45:06How do you compete in that world?
45:06How do you compete in that world?
45:06How do you compete in that world?
45:06How do you compete in that world?
45:06How do you compete in that world?
45:08What do you do with that?
45:08What do you do with that?
45:08What do you do with that?
45:08What do you do with that?
45:08What do you do with that?
45:08What do you do with that?
45:09In other words, just imagine that their technologies are almost as good as ours, because
45:09In other words, just imagine that their technologies are almost as good as ours, because
45:09In other words, just imagine that their technologies are almost as good as ours, because
45:09In other words, just imagine that their technologies are almost as good as ours, because
45:09In other words, just imagine that their technologies are almost as good as ours, because
45:09In other words, just imagine that their technologies are almost as good as ours, because
45:13they are. They're not far behind.
45:13they are. They're not far behind.
45:13they are. They're not far behind.
45:13they are. They're not far behind.
45:13they are. They're not far behind.
45:13they are. They're not far behind.
45:17And then, but that you could get them for free, open source.
45:17And then, but that you could get them for free, open source.
45:17And then, but that you could get them for free, open source.
45:17And then, but that you could get them for free, open source.
45:17And then, but that you could get them for free, open source.
45:17And then, but that you could get them for free, open source.
45:23Okay, now you've got to pay it back.
45:23Okay, now you've got to pay it back.
45:23Okay, now you've got to pay it back.
45:23Okay, now you've got to pay it back.
45:23Okay, now you've got to pay it back.
45:23Okay, now you've got to pay it back.
45:25Okay, so I just want to emphasize that these are also systematic risks that enter
45:25Okay, so I just want to emphasize that these are also systematic risks that enter
45:25Okay, so I just want to emphasize that these are also systematic risks that enter
45:25Okay, so I just want to emphasize that these are also systematic risks that enter
45:25Okay, so I just want to emphasize that these are also systematic risks that enter
45:25Okay, so I just want to emphasize that these are also systematic risks that enter
45:35into the picture of AI.
45:35into the picture of AI.
45:35into the picture of AI.
45:35into the picture of AI.
45:35into the picture of AI.
45:35into the picture of AI.
45:37But you certainly, yeah, there are a lot of unknowns here.
45:37But you certainly, yeah, there are a lot of unknowns here.
45:37But you certainly, yeah, there are a lot of unknowns here.
45:37But you certainly, yeah, there are a lot of unknowns here.
45:37But you certainly, yeah, there are a lot of unknowns here.
45:37But you certainly, yeah, there are a lot of unknowns here.
45:41As we wrap, looking back on the history of this nation, I ask myself the
45:41As we wrap, looking back on the history of this nation, I ask myself the
45:41As we wrap, looking back on the history of this nation, I ask myself the
45:41As we wrap, looking back on the history of this nation, I ask myself the
45:41As we wrap, looking back on the history of this nation, I ask myself the
45:41As we wrap, looking back on the history of this nation, I ask myself the
45:47question a lot, how did we get to the point that we've gotten to in
45:47question a lot, how did we get to the point that we've gotten to in
45:47question a lot, how did we get to the point that we've gotten to in
45:47question a lot, how did we get to the point that we've gotten to in
45:47question a lot, how did we get to the point that we've gotten to in
45:47question a lot, how did we get to the point that we've gotten to in
45:51terms of the amount of debt, the amount of government spending, the role that the
45:51terms of the amount of debt, the amount of government spending, the role that the
45:51terms of the amount of debt, the amount of government spending, the role that the
45:51terms of the amount of debt, the amount of government spending, the role that the
45:51terms of the amount of debt, the amount of government spending, the role that the
45:51terms of the amount of debt, the amount of government spending, the role that the
45:54central bank has played, and the risks that we find ourselves in today that all
45:54central bank has played, and the risks that we find ourselves in today that all
45:54central bank has played, and the risks that we find ourselves in today that all
45:54central bank has played, and the risks that we find ourselves in today that all
45:54central bank has played, and the risks that we find ourselves in today that all
45:54central bank has played, and the risks that we find ourselves in today that all
45:58seem largely avoidable if we hadn't taken or made the decisions we made along the
45:58seem largely avoidable if we hadn't taken or made the decisions we made along the
45:58seem largely avoidable if we hadn't taken or made the decisions we made along the
45:58seem largely avoidable if we hadn't taken or made the decisions we made along the
45:58seem largely avoidable if we hadn't taken or made the decisions we made along the
45:58seem largely avoidable if we hadn't taken or made the decisions we made along the
46:03way. You've highlighted that they repeat over and over again.
46:03way. You've highlighted that they repeat over and over again.
46:03way. You've highlighted that they repeat over and over again.
46:03way. You've highlighted that they repeat over and over again.
46:03way. You've highlighted that they repeat over and over again.
46:03way. You've highlighted that they repeat over and over again.
46:06But if you could go back and restructure the United States and be a founding
46:06But if you could go back and restructure the United States and be a founding
46:06But if you could go back and restructure the United States and be a founding
46:06But if you could go back and restructure the United States and be a founding
46:06But if you could go back and restructure the United States and be a founding
46:06But if you could go back and restructure the United States and be a founding
46:10father and write the Constitution yourself, what are one to three things that you would
46:10father and write the Constitution yourself, what are one to three things that you would
46:10father and write the Constitution yourself, what are one to three things that you would
46:10father and write the Constitution yourself, what are one to three things that you would
46:10father and write the Constitution yourself, what are one to three things that you would
46:10father and write the Constitution yourself, what are one to three things that you would
46:15have done differently? What would you have written into the Constitution that may have prevented
46:15have done differently? What would you have written into the Constitution that may have prevented
46:15have done differently? What would you have written into the Constitution that may have prevented
46:15have done differently? What would you have written into the Constitution that may have prevented
46:15have done differently? What would you have written into the Constitution that may have prevented
46:15have done differently? What would you have written into the Constitution that may have prevented
46:20us from getting into the situation that we're in today?
46:20us from getting into the situation that we're in today?
46:20us from getting into the situation that we're in today?
46:20us from getting into the situation that we're in today?
46:20us from getting into the situation that we're in today?
46:20us from getting into the situation that we're in today?
46:22Well, I mean, it's like the marshmallow test.
46:22Well, I mean, it's like the marshmallow test.
46:22Well, I mean, it's like the marshmallow test.
46:22Well, I mean, it's like the marshmallow test.
46:22Well, I mean, it's like the marshmallow test.
46:22Well, I mean, it's like the marshmallow test.
46:26You know the marshmallow test?
46:26You know the marshmallow test?
46:26You know the marshmallow test?
46:26You know the marshmallow test?
46:26You know the marshmallow test?
46:26You know the marshmallow test?
46:27You know, you want to see it as a kid at an early age, you
46:27You know, you want to see it as a kid at an early age, you
46:27You know, you want to see it as a kid at an early age, you
46:27You know, you want to see it as a kid at an early age, you
46:27You know, you want to see it as a kid at an early age, you
46:27You know, you want to see it as a kid at an early age, you
46:32give them the choice between one marshmallow now and two marshmallows in 20 minutes.
46:32give them the choice between one marshmallow now and two marshmallows in 20 minutes.
46:32give them the choice between one marshmallow now and two marshmallows in 20 minutes.
46:32give them the choice between one marshmallow now and two marshmallows in 20 minutes.
46:32give them the choice between one marshmallow now and two marshmallows in 20 minutes.
46:32give them the choice between one marshmallow now and two marshmallows in 20 minutes.
46:39And the kid that chooses the two marshmallows in 20 minutes is going to have
46:39And the kid that chooses the two marshmallows in 20 minutes is going to have
46:39And the kid that chooses the two marshmallows in 20 minutes is going to have
46:39And the kid that chooses the two marshmallows in 20 minutes is going to have
46:39And the kid that chooses the two marshmallows in 20 minutes is going to have
46:39And the kid that chooses the two marshmallows in 20 minutes is going to have
46:43a better life and make better decisions kind of thing.
46:43a better life and make better decisions kind of thing.
46:43a better life and make better decisions kind of thing.
46:43a better life and make better decisions kind of thing.
46:43a better life and make better decisions kind of thing.
46:43a better life and make better decisions kind of thing.
46:46I mean, therein lies our problem, the immediate gratification and also the not knowing if
46:46I mean, therein lies our problem, the immediate gratification and also the not knowing if
46:46I mean, therein lies our problem, the immediate gratification and also the not knowing if
46:46I mean, therein lies our problem, the immediate gratification and also the not knowing if
46:46I mean, therein lies our problem, the immediate gratification and also the not knowing if
46:46I mean, therein lies our problem, the immediate gratification and also the not knowing if
46:52things are going to be productive.
46:52things are going to be productive.
46:52things are going to be productive.
46:52things are going to be productive.
46:52things are going to be productive.
46:52things are going to be productive.
46:53But the system has been remarkably adaptable, too.
46:53But the system has been remarkably adaptable, too.
46:53But the system has been remarkably adaptable, too.
46:53But the system has been remarkably adaptable, too.
46:53But the system has been remarkably adaptable, too.
46:53But the system has been remarkably adaptable, too.
46:58In other words, we've gone through crises, we've wiped out debts, and we've gotten past
46:58In other words, we've gone through crises, we've wiped out debts, and we've gotten past
46:58In other words, we've gone through crises, we've wiped out debts, and we've gotten past
46:58In other words, we've gone through crises, we've wiped out debts, and we've gotten past
46:58In other words, we've gone through crises, we've wiped out debts, and we've gotten past
46:58In other words, we've gone through crises, we've wiped out debts, and we've gotten past
47:04it. And there are certain ways of getting past it.
47:04it. And there are certain ways of getting past it.
47:04it. And there are certain ways of getting past it.
47:04it. And there are certain ways of getting past it.
47:04it. And there are certain ways of getting past it.
47:04it. And there are certain ways of getting past it.
47:07But, you know, it's a tough question to balance financial prudence with innovative inventions.
47:07But, you know, it's a tough question to balance financial prudence with innovative inventions.
47:07But, you know, it's a tough question to balance financial prudence with innovative inventions.
47:07But, you know, it's a tough question to balance financial prudence with innovative inventions.
47:07But, you know, it's a tough question to balance financial prudence with innovative inventions.
47:07But, you know, it's a tough question to balance financial prudence with innovative inventions.
47:18You know, because... Like particularly, take AI now.
47:18You know, because... Like particularly, take AI now.
47:18You know, because... Like particularly, take AI now.
47:18You know, because... Like particularly, take AI now.
47:18You know, because... Like particularly, take AI now.
47:18You know, because... Like particularly, take AI now.
47:23Nobody knows what's going to come of it and what way, right?
47:23Nobody knows what's going to come of it and what way, right?
47:23Nobody knows what's going to come of it and what way, right?
47:23Nobody knows what's going to come of it and what way, right?
47:23Nobody knows what's going to come of it and what way, right?
47:23Nobody knows what's going to come of it and what way, right?
47:27Is it going to pay?
47:27Is it going to pay?
47:27Is it going to pay?
47:27Is it going to pay?
47:27Is it going to pay?
47:27Is it going to pay?
47:28Is it not going to pay?
47:28Is it not going to pay?
47:28Is it not going to pay?
47:28Is it not going to pay?
47:28Is it not going to pay?
47:28Is it not going to pay?
47:29And all of that. And so what do you write into the law that is
47:29And all of that. And so what do you write into the law that is
47:29And all of that. And so what do you write into the law that is
47:29And all of that. And so what do you write into the law that is
47:29And all of that. And so what do you write into the law that is
47:29And all of that. And so what do you write into the law that is
47:36going to get you financial prudence and controlled?
47:36going to get you financial prudence and controlled?
47:36going to get you financial prudence and controlled?
47:36going to get you financial prudence and controlled?
47:36going to get you financial prudence and controlled?
47:36going to get you financial prudence and controlled?
47:41And when you write it into the law, does that lessen the experimentation and, you
47:41And when you write it into the law, does that lessen the experimentation and, you
47:41And when you write it into the law, does that lessen the experimentation and, you
47:41And when you write it into the law, does that lessen the experimentation and, you
47:41And when you write it into the law, does that lessen the experimentation and, you
47:41And when you write it into the law, does that lessen the experimentation and, you
47:48know, the entrepreneurship and all of the things that, you know, so it's tough to
47:48know, the entrepreneurship and all of the things that, you know, so it's tough to
47:48know, the entrepreneurship and all of the things that, you know, so it's tough to
47:48know, the entrepreneurship and all of the things that, you know, so it's tough to
47:48know, the entrepreneurship and all of the things that, you know, so it's tough to
47:48know, the entrepreneurship and all of the things that, you know, so it's tough to
47:52do this with rules. I think maybe the main thing is I would say read
47:52do this with rules. I think maybe the main thing is I would say read
47:52do this with rules. I think maybe the main thing is I would say read
47:52do this with rules. I think maybe the main thing is I would say read
47:52do this with rules. I think maybe the main thing is I would say read
47:52do this with rules. I think maybe the main thing is I would say read
47:58history. Read history and know these things and try to get that balance right.
47:58history. Read history and know these things and try to get that balance right.
47:58history. Read history and know these things and try to get that balance right.
47:58history. Read history and know these things and try to get that balance right.
47:58history. Read history and know these things and try to get that balance right.
47:58history. Read history and know these things and try to get that balance right.
48:04You know, everything's a matter of the balance.
48:04You know, everything's a matter of the balance.
48:04You know, everything's a matter of the balance.
48:04You know, everything's a matter of the balance.
48:04You know, everything's a matter of the balance.
48:04You know, everything's a matter of the balance.
48:07So the balance of the pain of failing or the pain of putting money into
48:07So the balance of the pain of failing or the pain of putting money into
48:07So the balance of the pain of failing or the pain of putting money into
48:07So the balance of the pain of failing or the pain of putting money into
48:07So the balance of the pain of failing or the pain of putting money into
48:07So the balance of the pain of failing or the pain of putting money into
48:13something that fails. Well, Ray, I want to thank you once again for taking the
48:13something that fails. Well, Ray, I want to thank you once again for taking the
48:13something that fails. Well, Ray, I want to thank you once again for taking the
48:13something that fails. Well, Ray, I want to thank you once again for taking the
48:13something that fails. Well, Ray, I want to thank you once again for taking the
48:13something that fails. Well, Ray, I want to thank you once again for taking the
48:18time to be here with me.
48:18time to be here with me.
48:18time to be here with me.
48:18time to be here with me.
48:18time to be here with me.
48:18time to be here with me.
48:20It's always great to catch up, hear your perspective.
48:20It's always great to catch up, hear your perspective.
48:20It's always great to catch up, hear your perspective.
48:20It's always great to catch up, hear your perspective.
48:20It's always great to catch up, hear your perspective.
48:20It's always great to catch up, hear your perspective.
48:23Obviously, so much has changed in the last year and yet so much hasn't.
48:23Obviously, so much has changed in the last year and yet so much hasn't.
48:23Obviously, so much has changed in the last year and yet so much hasn't.
48:23Obviously, so much has changed in the last year and yet so much hasn't.
48:23Obviously, so much has changed in the last year and yet so much hasn't.
48:23Obviously, so much has changed in the last year and yet so much hasn't.
48:26It's been great to get your view on it.
48:26It's been great to get your view on it.
48:26It's been great to get your view on it.
48:26It's been great to get your view on it.
48:26It's been great to get your view on it.
48:26It's been great to get your view on it.
48:28And I think it's really helpful to do this.
48:28And I think it's really helpful to do this.
48:28And I think it's really helpful to do this.
48:28And I think it's really helpful to do this.
48:28And I think it's really helpful to do this.
48:28And I think it's really helpful to do this.
48:30So thanks so much. And thank you for what you guys do.
48:30So thanks so much. And thank you for what you guys do.
48:30So thanks so much. And thank you for what you guys do.
48:30So thanks so much. And thank you for what you guys do.
48:30So thanks so much. And thank you for what you guys do.
48:30So thanks so much. And thank you for what you guys do.
48:34I'm riveted to your program.
48:34I'm riveted to your program.
48:34I'm riveted to your program.
48:34I'm riveted to your program.
48:34I'm riveted to your program.
48:34I'm riveted to your program.
48:36And I think you make a great contribution.
48:36And I think you make a great contribution.
48:36And I think you make a great contribution.
48:36And I think you make a great contribution.
48:36And I think you make a great contribution.
48:36And I think you make a great contribution.
48:40So conversations like this are really practical helps for a lot of people.
48:40So conversations like this are really practical helps for a lot of people.
48:40So conversations like this are really practical helps for a lot of people.
48:40So conversations like this are really practical helps for a lot of people.
48:40So conversations like this are really practical helps for a lot of people.
48:40So conversations like this are really practical helps for a lot of people.
48:46So anyway, thank you for letting me participate.
48:46So anyway, thank you for letting me participate.
48:46So anyway, thank you for letting me participate.
48:46So anyway, thank you for letting me participate.
48:46So anyway, thank you for letting me participate.
48:46So anyway, thank you for letting me participate.
48:48And thank you for what you do for a lot of people.
48:48And thank you for what you do for a lot of people.
48:48And thank you for what you do for a lot of people.
48:48And thank you for what you do for a lot of people.
48:48And thank you for what you do for a lot of people.
48:48And thank you for what you do for a lot of people.
48:51Thank you. That's right.
48:51Thank you. That's right.
48:51Thank you. That's right.
48:51Thank you. That's right.
48:51Thank you. That's right.
48:51Thank you. That's right.