Buck Brief - Stalemate or Strategy? Inside the High-Stakes Iran Negotiations
4/22/202628 mincomplete
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2:56Alex Berenson, host of, or I should say author of, Unreported Truths on Substack.
3:01Well, he hosts two in a sense.
3:03Unreported Truths, this is Substack.
3:05It's excellent. Go check it out.
3:06And you have been taking some very interesting analysis on a range of issues, including
3:12Iran. And I see some of the downside, at least, similarly to you at this
3:18point. Although right now, I feel like there is a little bit of optimism from
3:24the Trump knows exactly what he's doing camp based on the price of oil.
3:28So how do you assess, by the way, I had Rand Paul on radio and
3:31I asked him about this.
3:31And all he wanted to talk about is how the war started and how we
3:34should. And I'm like, buddy, I get it.
3:35But we're here now. Let's talk about now.
3:38Where do you think, and he didn't really want to talk about now, by the
3:41way. Where do you think we should be?
3:43Or how do you think things are going right now as you and I talk?
3:46The ceasefire is kind of underway.
3:48The strait is kind of open.
3:50We're kind of negotiating. So, I mean, I think the reason it's relevant to talk
3:56about what happened six weeks ago is I think it constrained the president's freedom of
4:02action now. And that and the Iranians are smart enough to recognize that.
4:07Right. So. So, you know, I wouldn't say I'm in a unique position.
4:11I think you and I might actually be in kind of a similar position on
4:14this in that we are certainly not anti -Trump.
4:17We don't have Trump derangement syndrome.
4:18And at the same time, we're not in the like, Israel runs everything.
4:23And, you know, Donald Trump is just a puppet of Israel.
4:26So we're not in the Candace group and we're not on the left.
4:29And yet at the same time, and I certainly don't want to see a powerful
4:34Iran. I don't want to see an Iran that has a nuclear weapon.
4:37At the same time, like, I don't think the president should just go starting wars
4:42himself. I think that's a mistake.
4:44OK, I think it is.
4:45I think we have a constitution for a reason.
4:47I think Congress is Article One for a reason.
4:49And even though Congress hasn't done a good job standing up for its own power,
4:55I think that matters. And that's why I think what we're seeing now, to some
5:00extent, comes out of the fact that the president of the United States did not
5:04prepare the country or Congress or the world for this war.
5:09Right. Right. So he had this tremendous success in Venezuela.
5:13We capture Maduro. Nobody gets hurt.
5:15It's I mean, it's really I mean, it's really an amazing operation.
5:19Right. And and Netanyahu comes to him over the winter and says, you can do
5:23it in Iran. You can.
5:24You can. knock out the you know the the whole regime and we think there's
5:30a good possibility there's going to be a revolt you're going to be the conquering
5:33hero of the middle east without losing a single you know soldier or airman and
5:39you can see why that would be so appealing right the president goes with his
5:42gut that's what he that you know and he went with his gut in 2020
5:46when he killed Soleimani that was successful he went with his gut last year when
5:51he captured Maduro that was successful so he rolled the dice but it didn't work
5:57even though we killed all those people the regime did not collapse there were not
6:02people in the streets and they responded in a way that actually was predictable he
6:07just hoped it wouldn't happen which is they shut the street so because he hasn't
6:11come in with the right authorization with the right groundwork he can't really credibly escalate
6:18this to say we're going to put boots on the ground or even we're going
6:22to really put our ships at risk and so he agrees to the ceasefire and
6:27i would say right now we're in this kind of holding pattern i think the
6:30iranians are kind of licking their wounds and figuring out can we can we continue
6:34to do this the president is clearly concerned and certainly republicans are clearly concerned about
6:39the price of oil and so both sides i think have an incentive to to
6:43you know to sort of kick the can down the road in a way that
6:46you wouldn't have predicted uh when this whole thing started and you see this in
6:50negotiations i was gonna say my my my sense of where this is going and
6:54we haven't recorded this beforehand but i've been saying from the beginning of negotiations with
7:00a deadline that we're going to go through this period of the straight some ships
7:05are getting through like what's really going on we're going to get to the end
7:08of this in the last few days before trump is going to say you know
7:11we will obliterate you down to the lizards to borrow from uh from borat if
7:16you remember you know like we that's what he said about a rock like we
7:19will kill you down to the lizards like we will annihilate your entire society all
7:22this stuff and then at the 11th hour when the ceasefire is about to formally
7:27expire we're going to hear our you know our brilliant jd vance and amazing jared
7:31kushner have got really great progress here so we're going to extend and and but
7:37i would just say this in a sense i'm happy because i don't want us
7:40to just keep kind of bombing them and not but on the other side of
7:43it i think that's exactly what iran wants they just want to be in this
7:46rope a dope of okay yes maybe no and as long as some oil is
7:50getting flu getting through they build up and they know that they don't just have
7:53to outlast this bombing campaign they can just try to outlast trump he's not going
7:58to be around for that long and if there's a democrat who comes in we
8:01know how that's going to go right you know i think i think you're right
8:05i think that is their strategy is to last and i think well here's here's
8:09the bigger and even bigger problem i would say from the u .s point of
8:12view right we're the global superpower we still are and that street was open okay
8:18and we sort of implicitly guaranteed to the world it would be open and now
8:24we've kind of walked away from that promise and that i think and i posted
8:28this on x a couple days ago is why trump you know he said blockade
8:32what he really means with the blockade is he's going to reopen the street and
8:36he's trying to do that in a way that's relatively low risk but i think
8:39you're right i think i think he knows that if gas is at five bucks
8:44a gallon much less more you know in november it will just be an absolute
8:48blue wave he can't have that happen and so he's gonna he's very strongly incented
8:54to get to some kind of negotiation and and my joke which i have not
8:58made publicly yet this will be the first time i make this is so the
9:00obama administration got a 15 year you know uh deal on nuclear and right now
9:07the trump administration's at 20 the iranians are at five so maybe it will be
9:1115 years in one day will be the uh will be the ultimate so he
9:15can say he out negotiated obama can i also take you to where i am
9:19and you know give me give me your uh your full berenson uh you know
9:23assessment on this one the way i see it is the the we have set
9:28a red line essentially or we have set a non -negotiable of they cannot keep
9:32enriched uranium i do not see a world in which the iranians go you know
9:37what you're right we're gonna we're gonna get we're gonna give it all away in
9:42a way that is verifiable and acceptable to you i just think that we have
9:47this is like the unstoppable force the immovable object i i just see this as
9:51an intractable position because fundamentally why would they do that what are we gonna do
9:58if they don't so here's one out if trump wants the out right that he
10:02says we're gonna post satellites which we're doing already right over it over the sites
10:07where we think they have the uranium they verify it's there now they could be
10:11lying or not and he says well we know they can't touch that without much
10:17less move it without us knowing that's as good as them giving it away now
10:21obviously that's not as good as them giving it to the you know some third
10:25party or moving it outside their borders but if he wants out you'll know you'll
10:30know who had the leverage here if that's the kind of deal they reach so
10:34where do you think this ends up is the iranian regime largely they still control
10:42you know people are saying well who's doing the negotiations their foreign minister the head
10:46of their parliament essentially so people are like oh all the leaders are gone well
10:50no not really right i mean some of the yeah some of the big ones
10:53but not actually i mean there's no by the way if all leaders were gone
10:57you'd be hearing about how people can speak freely in the streets and they're toppling
11:00statues them you've seen none of that okay because i think they recognize another part
11:04of this that hasn't gotten nearly enough i think focus there was a liquidation of
11:0935 or 40 000 people that occurred without us knowing any if you're going to
11:14start mulling protesters down that told people this not that i'm the head of a
11:17secret police force but i have studied a lot of secret police force uh stuff
11:20in history if you're going to start mowing people down in the public square that's
11:24also the best time to go find whoever you think is a problem for you
11:28and and take them out too right i mean it's it's like a night of
11:31the long knives thing that's i mean that's a great point i should not even
11:35consider that i i was i was actually going to push back a little bit
11:38because you know initially we saw numbers like five to twelve thousand dead now the
11:42administration is saying forty thousand dead it feels a little bit like that number just
11:46keeps getting bigger up listen five thousand dead would be a lot and i'm not
11:49justifying it it's a terrible regime but i do think we should be careful you
11:53know somebody's going to say a hundred thousand right i mean trump if you're asking
11:57for specificity with numbers with trump you're going to be waiting around a long time
12:00to be fair i mean but if it's i think we can all agree it's
12:04it's thousands if it's thousands dead and they were already killing protesters yeah they're also
12:09going to kill anybody that their secret police has you know that basically the besiege
12:13uh and the irgc have on the radar as a troublemaker just eliminate them to
12:18put that body on the pile so i think that we we waited until after
12:22they had done essentially a total clampdown and now we're like well where's the great
12:27resistance figure um they they they know better than we do who that would have
12:31been and that guy's probably already unfortunately underground um all right i got i got
12:36it we could talk around stuff forever but i by the way i just appreciate
12:38because you there is this weird little spot in the discussion right now for i
12:44want what is best for america i want trump to come out winning and looking
12:49great on this i don't want us boots on the ground in iran for sure
12:53so that's what i want to see here but i don't think that sitting around
12:57saying everything that trump is doing with this has been brilliant and worked out as
13:00it like it's just i don't think it's good to be inaccurate about what has
13:05happened either which is clearly there have been some bumps along the way and you
13:09know you shouldn't get folded in with the like well like iran is a great
13:12uh you know great partner for peace let's go take a trip right exactly let's
13:17just show up in tehran so many of these people it's amazing to me you
13:19know you've seen some of these imbeciles too and it's not any word naming them
13:22some of these people left they're talking about how great cuba is or how great
13:25iran is like they wouldn't even go to these places because they know they'd be
13:29killed same thing with hamas and gaza you can't even these people who will speak
13:33on behalf of these despotic regimes they can't even go to the place that they
13:38say it's not so bad and yet they still anyway it's just kind of funny
13:42you know the whole solomany family solomany family is in is in la living large
13:48and like taking instagram photos i'm sure you've seen that i saw i saw like
13:52the grandniece of solomany and i got a lot of got a lot of guys
13:54i know were like yeah maybe she deserves a good report you know like maybe
13:58uh maybe she's not so bad all right our sponsor here is birch gold group
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14:51swalwell thing so for me look he's toast it's a disaster there's no coming back
14:56from this politically he may even lose his freedom over this you know we'll see
15:00what charges may or may not but the for me the outstanding he's clearly a
15:04scumbag and has destroyed any brand any political future he has all that is true
15:09and i think now it's just a question of what criminal jeopardy he may be
15:12in and we've covered a lot of them the show the part of this that's
15:15more interesting to me and i want to get your take on it is how
15:18did this all come together and why now we're like why now what the timing
15:23is what interests me so so i i put a post up yesterday or a
15:28sunday on unreported truths on my sub stack about this because i do think it's
15:32fascinating right and and swallow is a bad guy right and let's not pretend that
15:36there aren't republicans who you know aren't guilty of similar stuff but he's a democrat
15:41right which means on some level he is protected by the legacy media meaning his
15:47behavior has to get really bad or there has to be a reason for them
15:52to kind of toss him overboard because what you've seen in the last let's say
15:5672 hours to week is a lot of people saying like we knew about this
16:00right all you know capitol hill is not that big a place he was in
16:05the bay area you know nancy pelosi gavin newsom it's a it's a pretty coherent
16:10democratic establishment up there and he was not discreet right he was if you were
16:15you know an attractive 20 year old who was uh you know interested in democratic
16:19politics he was looking at you if you were in the Bay Area or DC.
16:23So people knew about this, but nobody said anything about it.
16:28Well, why? Especially in the wake of Me Too, it's very interesting that this guy
16:36seems to have been protected.
16:38So why did his protection suddenly lapse?
16:41Well, in California right now, he is one of the, or was one of the
16:45leading candidates to be the Democratic to get essentially the Democratic nomination.
16:51But California has this weird primary system where everybody, Republican, Democrat, Independent, runs in the
16:59same, what's called jungle primary.
17:01That's right. And the Democrats now have a big problem with the jungle primary, which
17:05is that even though California is heavily Democratic, there are so many real Democrats running
17:11with a real chance of winning.
17:12They're splitting the vote so badly that there is a real chance or there was
17:17before Swalwell was forced out of the race that he, or that the Democrats might
17:22split the vote so badly that there'd be two Republican candidates getting through the jungle
17:27primary, meaning California would have a Republican governor, even though it's 70 % Democratic.
17:32Obviously, from the Democratic point of view, that is a disaster.
17:35And so what do you have to do?
17:37You have to convince some people to drop out.
17:38Well, nobody was dropping out, but suddenly they got the number one guy on their
17:42side to drop out and the jungle primary is much less likely.
17:45And if you don't think that that played a role in all of this exploding
17:49in the last week, you know, you were you were born last night.
17:52Yeah. So so just on the math on that a little bit.
17:55So it's like there's eight people, I think, the Democrat side that we're all running,
17:59the two Republicans and eight Democrats.
18:01Democrats. So by Swalwell, because because I thought this, too, I said, OK, well, this
18:05guy because the other theory that's out there, just put this out there that I'm
18:09seeing from people who are smart and who are serious people is, no, it was
18:13actually these women really just were so outraged at the notion that this guy was
18:18really going to be the governor.
18:19Like, it's one thing to be one of four hundred thirty five members of Congress,
18:21but be the governor of California was just too much for them.
18:24That has been put forward.
18:26What do you make of that?
18:27Well, I mean, look, I do.
18:29I think that there is real legitimate outrage coming from these women.
18:33Yes, I do, especially. And I do think there's a snowball effect where if, you
18:37know, he hit on you and you didn't realize he was doing this to 20
18:41other women, when it comes out, you get even madder because now it's like all
18:45the nice things he said to you, you know, he just said to, you know,
18:47whoever else was around at that time, too.
18:50So more women do come out.
18:52And I agree that there is there is something organic that can happen.
18:55But what I'm talking about is for it to get to the level where he's
18:58forced to resign. Right. It has to at some point make the jump from X
19:03from blue sky to the mainstream media, especially on the left.
19:08Right. Because if the mainstream media is just discounting this stuff as a bunch of,
19:13you know, it's just Elon trying to speak against the prominent Democrats.
19:17Also, there was no there was no just to add this to what you're saying.
19:21Sometimes they hit the slowdown button for a second.
19:23You know what I mean?
19:24They'll go, oh, you know, well, we're covering this, but we still need to be
19:27fair to blah, blah, blah.
19:28It was he looked in, you know, at the end of 300, when Leonidas has
19:31like 400 arrows in him from the movie, he was like, I mean, it was
19:36they just annihilated this guy in the media.
19:38There was no pushback. It literally took 72 hours.
19:41Right. And so you have to believe, even if you agree that, you know, that
19:46this was real outrage and that it actually did start from some progressives because they
19:52were really, oh, this is just another example proof that me, too, didn't really do
19:55anything. The fact that it went to sort of the CNN, Washington Post, San Francisco
20:00Chronicle, and then the Democratic establishment so quickly that you have to look at the
20:05jungle primary and the idea that having this guy support, let's say, go to Katie
20:11Porter or Steyer or somebody that means that at least one Democrat gets through.
20:15They've got to view that as a positive for them.
20:18Right. I mean, so to me, it's if all these women came forward to the
20:22judgments in the different newsrooms would certainly be affected by what you're saying.
20:28Right. I mean, meaning the way that they cover it and everything.
20:30So even if it was somewhat organic in the early days, because I'll tell you,
20:33we had Steve Hilton on who's the top Republican.
20:35We had him on radio and I asked him the same question, because usually you
20:39can also see the fingerprints on this.
20:40You can see from like a mile away.
20:42Right. You're like, oh, we know who did this or who was involved.
20:44And, you know, even in the dirty politics stuff, you can point.
20:46And this one was a seemed a little murkier.
20:49He said he thought it was that there was that this was Tom Steyer coordinating
20:52the background. And I was just kind of like, interesting.
20:55I mean, Steyer does. I don't know.
20:57I don't know that he has it in him, but maybe he's certainly got the
20:59money to do it. It's it's why it's one of those things.
21:03And you and you surely remember this during COVID.
21:05Everyone will remember this. There was this very weird phenomenon where the entire media suddenly
21:10would seize on a phrase like get the vaccine when it's your turn.
21:15Wait your turn. And and and we saw this on a second.
21:19Hold on a second, Alex.
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22:17all these different theories out there swalwell is clearly finished and over i do have
22:21to ask you though did you see that brian stelter was claiming that this was
22:25a victory for independent investigative journalism like is he serious though like are these people
22:32that think that the media gets a pat on the back now this guy ran
22:34for president and no one cared i i don't know i don't know if grimace
22:39is ever serious okay i mean i i'm not a good i'm not a good
22:43guy to discuss brian stelter because i can't stand him and he tried to have
22:48me canceled in 2021 i mean he openly did he openly tried again to get
22:53substack to ban me um after after twitter had banned me i mean so so
22:58i i'm not a neutral observer of him but he's ridiculous yes he is he's
23:03definitely ridiculous and and by the way i just literally saw that there is now
23:09another rape accusation against swalwell so you're right like his problems are now much deeper
23:14than what his uh political future is um you know he may he may be
23:19sort of not just a bad guy but a criminally bad guy i guess we'll
23:23see um and so but what is so interesting is this idea that you know
23:28the media just seized on this so quickly and it does remind me of that
23:32moment you know in covet when you would hear wait two weeks and then everyone
23:38in the media would say it or wait your turn for the vaccine um or
23:43you know the vaccine reduces transmission even if it doesn't uh you know give you
23:48100 protection they would all seize on everything and and i don't know if that's
23:53just the meeting of the minds or if there's something weird or happening but we
23:56see it with the legacy media where they literally just amplify each other and and
24:01it's it's puzzling to watch and it can clearly happen the other way as with
24:05this snowball crazy stuff go check out alex's sub stack unreported truths i'm a i'm
24:10a proud subscriber myself so this is uh i give him uh full full credit
24:16full marks for doing great work there and mr alex berenson great to see you
24:20as always we'll talk soon always a pleasure thanks buck paying 70 80 90 a
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28:00This is an iHeart Podcast.
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