Hour 1 - Conflict Accelerates Tech
3/5/202637 mincomplete
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast.
0:02Guaranteed human. Welcome, everybody, to the Thursday edition of the Clay Travis and Buck Sexton
0:10Show. Great to be here with all of you across this great land of ours.
0:13We have updates on the air campaign against Iran, the war from the sky.
0:20Continuing on, President Trump weighing in with his assessment of how this is going so
0:25far. Concerns rising as the Strait of Hormuz has become a bit of a ghost
0:33town. Not a lot of shipping going through there because of concerns about Iranian reprisals.
0:39Oil prices jumping a little bit.
0:42Some are starting to hit the panicking button on that one.
0:45We will look at the analysis and where things actually are and what is likely
0:50to happen. More on that Texas Senate race.
0:52More on James Tallarico, and I have to say, some of the chatter online is,
0:57guys, we have to hold some of these clips until closer to the election because
1:02some of them are truly astonishing.
1:05And the fact that Democrats believe that this is a person who will win a
1:10Senate seat in Texas, I wouldn't want this person in charge of the Mr.
1:16Softee stand on the corner.
1:17This guy is a loon.
1:19This guy is crazy. But we'll get into it.
1:22But he quotes the Bible.
1:23So if you work for the New York Times, anybody who kind of sounds like
1:27this and quotes the Bible has to be a godly man.
1:30And so he must know something, even though he thinks that Jesus, all about transing
1:35the youth, big Jesus, huge into transing the kids, according to James Tallarico.
1:40We'll talk more about this.
1:42And also, I'm a little too excited about this, actually, but apparently it's not the
1:49first of its kind, but a rule, a rule for the skies has nothing to
1:54do with our air warner on a rule for the skies.
1:57When it comes to air travel, that is, I think, in defense of Western civilization
2:04itself, I think finally the savages are on their back heels thanks to a United
2:10Airlines rule that if you'd, you know, Clay, I don't want to get into it
2:15right now because we have more important things, but this gets me very excited.
2:18And you know what it has to do with headphone usage on planes.
2:23The savages can no longer have their way with just playing their iPads and their
2:27phones with no headphones. So we all have to hear whatever garbage they're watching or
2:33listening to. It is. There's a bunch.
2:39We're going to have some fun and also talk about serious things that are going
2:43on right now. I love the James Tallarico story because this thing is just an
2:48utter disaster. We're going to go to Israel, by the way, at the bottom of
2:51this hour with Yael Eckstein and hear what it's like in Israel right now.
2:56And then our buddy Ryan Gerdusky is going to be on with us to talk
2:59some of this Tallarico and decision making as it pertains to the Senate landscape as
3:05the primaries have started. But, Buck, I think the biggest and most important thing about
3:12Iran right now, if you look at the overall trajectory of where we're headed, is
3:17what is the exit strategy for Iran in the context of to what extent are
3:25they going to reach a leader that we are okay with?
3:30Because I would suggest, I'm curious if you would, how you would analyze this.
3:35Iran's strategy right now, I think, is going to be, hey, we'll just take as
3:39many bombs as necessary and the president is not going to stay committed to this
3:45long range. And all we've got to do is withstand four or five weeks of
3:51significant bombing, and then we'll stick our heads up, see who is still around, and
3:57we'll just elevate somebody. I think this is what the government in power right now
4:01is thinking. The next Ayatollah is not going to be a lot different than the
4:06past Ayatollah, and we will try to rebuild from the destruction that is there.
4:11I think the question is, to what extent is the new leader signed off on
4:16by America, and what is the time frame?
4:19Because I think the longer this goes on, the tougher it gets for Trump.
4:23But the reality is, when we're bombing from a distance, I don't think it really
4:27impacts a lot of Americans in a very significant way.
4:31Well, this is why I mentioned the oil prices situation.
4:36The oil prices spike is something that, certainly if this continues on, and if it
4:43happens along the lines of what we saw with the Russia -Ukraine war, where I
4:46think it got up to $120 -something a barrel at one point because of concerns
4:51over access to fossil fuels, to natural gas and oil.
4:59So that's something that they have to take into consideration here.
5:02The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic choke point.
5:06About 20 % of the world's global oil supply does go through that strait, and
5:11there are currently hundreds of ships, tankers, etc., idling.
5:17Not really sure where they're going and what they're going to do because they're not
5:20going to be able to enter or exit the strait under the current circumstance.
5:24So I'm going to exercise that in a minute.
5:24See if I'm going to attack this Сτεbooks come out.
5:24has to change. Trump, meanwhile, saying this has cut 14.
5:28Things are going great from the aerial war front, even better than he expected them
5:33to. Play 14. We're doing very well on the war front, to put it mildly,
5:39I would say. Somebody said on a scale of 10, where would you rate it?
5:43I said about a 15.
5:44Their leadership is just rapidly going.
5:46Everybody that seems to want to be a leader, they end up dead.
5:51And it's an amazing, amazing thing that's taking place.
5:58And he's saying on a scale of 10, I would rate it about 15.
6:03Clay, Trump seems to be very pleased with how this is going so far, that
6:08we are in a position to essentially destroy all of the offensive capability.
6:14One of the big parts of this is tracking and destroying what they call the
6:18Missile Cities. Wall Street Journal had a big piece on this.
6:21These underground bunkers, essentially, where they store a lot of missiles, and then they have
6:28these mobile missile launchers. Those are like the first things that U .S.
6:32and Israeli planes are looking to pick off.
6:34Not only are we picking them off the moment they move to try to fire,
6:37but also we're destroying those bunkers in place, caving them in.
6:42And so all of a sudden, thousands of missiles will no longer be accessible to
6:46the Iranian regime. The military outgunning that we are seeing right now is, I think,
6:53far beyond what a lot of people would have expected.
6:55I think that's completely right.
6:57And again, one of the things that is so interesting, and you know this because
7:02you're a military history person as well, is conflict accelerates technological advance.
7:10And initially, wars are fought on the technology of the past war.
7:14Everybody says, hey, this would have beaten the past war.
7:17And then you start to see an evolution rapidly.
7:21You've seen it with Ukraine and Russia.
7:23I think there is an argument, and I'm not sure how long it's going to
7:28exist. But I think there's an argument that boots on the ground is not a
7:34requirement anymore like it would have been in the past, because you can find and
7:39track people through the technological sophistication and evolution that we have seen in a way
7:46that didn't exist in the past.
7:47And let me hit you with this question, Buck, because I was thinking about it
7:50this morning as I was doing my prep.
7:52When we did the first Gulf War, I think a lot of people thought, hey,
7:57we should have continued on.
7:59This is the one in 1990 -ish, and we could have taken out Saddam Hussein.
8:04We didn't. And then we went back in in 2003 and all of the disaster
8:08that ensued from there. In today's technology, we would have just been able to wipe
8:14out Saddam Hussein without ever having to have the mass troops in the same way.
8:21And I wonder how that would have changed 1990 and 2003 if we have been
8:27able to decapitate Saddam Hussein like we did with the Ayatollah.
8:31And I do think that President Trump, who just said to Axios, Khamenei's son is
8:40a lightweight. There are reports that the Ayatollah's 40 -some -odd young son is going
8:45to be elevated. I have to be involved in the appointment.
8:51President Trump to Axios, I have to be involved in the appointment.
8:55So the current kid that they're trying to elevate, I say kid, he's in his
8:5940s, according to Trump is a lightweight.
9:02And Trump says, I need to be involved in the choice that they make as
9:06to who the next leader is.
9:07So I think what you're seeing is the White House sees this as a Venezuela
9:14-like situation. Now, the wild card here is, is it possible that there could be
9:21people out there who are rising up inside of Iran?
9:26You're skeptical on that, that it's more difficult without us being boots on the ground
9:31to actually have a regime change.
9:33Well, I got to tell you, and we have so many veterans, GWAT veterans listening
9:38right now, many of whom served tours of combat in Iraq, many of whom served
9:45multiple tours, spent years of their lives over there.
9:50And you start talking about using the Kurds as the cleanup force for Iran, which
9:55is being reported all over the place.
9:56Now, the White House has said, no, no, we're not confirming that.
9:59They're not denying it. They're not confirming it.
10:01But everybody who remembers the rough days in Iraq knows that the Kurds, they have
10:08a utility. They are good allies for what they are in the areas that are
10:14Kurdish. But the moment that you start telling people who are non -Kurdish that the
10:20Kurdish overlords, so to speak, have arrived, you get big problems.
10:25There's big problems in Iraq.
10:28And it could cause, I think, big problems in Iran.
10:30And I think that's why the administration knows.
10:32I don't think they're going to do that.
10:33I think they'll want the Kurds to just do what they did in Iraq, stabilize
10:37the more Kurdish portions of Iran.
10:40And the point here is, Clay, we got to find somebody else that has some
10:44kind of federalist, unifying capability here to get them.
10:50First of all, you have to get out of you.
10:52have to oust the people who still have control of the guys with the guns,
10:55which has not happened yet.
10:57We've taken out the major military equipment, but until people aren't afraid that men with
11:02masks and AK -47s will come in the middle of the night and execute them
11:05in front of their families for speaking out, this thing is a long way from
11:09over. We have to get through that phase, which means we need somebody with ground
11:13strength of some level, and then we have to have somebody who will oversee a
11:20transition to elections and a, basically, I think what they want is a constitutional monarchy.
11:26Rather, I think that would be the best situation.
11:28You bring back the Shah, you have a constitution, you have elections.
11:31The Shah is kind of a figurehead for a period of time.
11:34Maybe that's the way, but this is the big missing piece here.
11:38I mean, I feel much better about what's going to happen in Venezuela, or I
11:41should say higher confidence level about what's going to happen in Venezuela over the next
11:45three years than Iran right now.
11:47It's just an unknown. I think all that is well said.
11:52Here's one thing that I would say.
11:54I think the way we could get out is we declare victory.
11:57We allow someone that we don't think is actually anywhere near as bad as the
12:03Ayatollah to come to power.
12:05And here's the stick. The carrot is, okay, you're the new ruler of Iran.
12:11Here's the stick, Buck. We have demonstrated that we can kill any leader of Iran
12:17basically whenever the president of the United States or Israel decides to do so.
12:23And I would think that if you get a new ruler that the president is
12:28in some way in favor of, that in the back of their mind knowing, wait
12:32a minute, that could be me too, makes it far more likely that they are
12:38going to follow the direction of the president and, I think, to a large extent,
12:43Marco Rubio. And look, that's the deal that Delce Rodriguez has right now in Venezuela.
12:49If you read what happened there, they said, hey, we took Maduro.
12:52She was like, no way.
12:53And they were like, here's a video of him.
12:55He's in our possession. You either are going to work with us or we're going
13:00to take you out and prosecute you too.
13:03And I have to believe that those are the kind of conversations that are going
13:07to take place in Iran.
13:08Now, in an ideal world, you would end up with a constitutional monarchy and you
13:13would have sane rulers and you would have a brand new regime that comes in
13:18and Iran would become a flourishing marketplace of ideas in a way that it was
13:23prior to the rise of the Islamic Republic.
13:26That might be too optimistic.
13:29So having a ruler that we know doesn't have the ability to get nuclear weapons
13:34is a supreme success. As we said yesterday, if we could go back in time
13:38and keep North Korea from having nuclear weapons, the world would be much safer.
13:42Here, we may well have done that for Iran.
13:46And what I come back to is this is the antithesis of what most politicians
13:50do. Most politicians just worry about the time when they're in office and then they
13:55leave big messes for the next politician to have to try to clean up.
13:59Trump is making here, to his credit, a generational decision that he will not personally
14:06necessarily benefit from very much in the next two years and change that he has
14:11to be president of the United States.
14:14And that is actually incredibly commendable.
14:17Trump is trying to do a lot of things right now that I think are
14:20generational in nature that will not inure directly to his benefit.
14:25In fact, if you look, as you mentioned, at the price of gas in the
14:28short term, it honestly has a political cost that is more substantial for him than
14:34the benefit that he will get out of it.
14:37We shall see. That's my biggest takeaway from all of this.
14:41People that are saying it's great.
14:42People that are saying it's terrible.
14:43Well, no one knows yet.
14:46I have a lot of faith in Trump and his team, but it is faith.
14:49It is not a done deal.
14:51So let's see what they're able to pull off here.
14:55They have, just like with tariffs, I said, Trump has earned the right to have
14:59us say, all right, sir, see this through.
15:01This is why we elected you.
15:03All right. If you took $20 ,000 from your savings account in 2006, exactly 20
15:07years ago, and invested it into gold, just gold, it would be worth about $165
15:12,000 today. That's more than 800 % increase over two decades.
15:17Smart Americans have been diversifying a portion of their savings into precious metals like gold
15:22for years. And you can, too.
15:24By the way, with global instability, concerns about oil markets, guess what?
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15:57Making America great again isn't just one man.
16:00It's many. The Team 47 Podcast.
16:04Sundays at noon Eastern in the Clay and Buck podcast feed.
16:07Find it on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts.
16:11Welcome back in. Clay Travis, Buck Sexton Show.
16:15We are talking about the latest situation on Iran.
16:17Again, the president saying that he won.
16:20...wants to be involved in picking the next leader of Iran.
16:24I don't think either of us expect for there to be boots on the ground.
16:28And again, I think the technology is such that the new leader of Iran is
16:32going to know that he could be killed at any moment.
16:34And when that is the reality operating in the back of your head, maybe you're
16:38more likely to be a partner of the United States and Israel as well.
16:42But Steve in Oklahoma, you think Israel is going to put boots on the ground?
16:48I think we can't discount the ferocity of Israel.
16:52And what is the possibility that they go boots on the ground?
16:56We bring in the Apaches, the Warthog.
16:59We've already got the B -52s there, so let's just do it.
17:05I think, Buck, my take on that would be I would severely, if they asked,
17:11Israel putting boots on the ground is a really bad idea.
17:14I mean, much worse than us.
17:15Yes, yes, yes, much. It is something that may be a surprise to some people.
17:20There is a lot of anti -Semitism in the Muslim world, just letting you know.
17:27The whole Israel thing, not great in a lot of parts.
17:31And the Israel in a country that's getting bombed and showing up, not going to
17:37go over well. I'm just going to tell you this right now.
17:39As somebody who used to read the jihadist intercepts when they were calling me a
17:46crusader or Jew, that's what they used to call us in Iraq, yeah, it would
17:50not go over well, Clay.
17:52Yeah, I don't think that's a good play.
17:54I think, actually, the U .S.
17:58being involved in the selection of the next Iranian leader is far better than Israel
18:02being involved, even though that's obviously going to happen on both fronts.
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18:23So if you're a huge college basketball fan, if you're even someone like Buck, who
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18:56prizepix .com, code Clay. Welcome back into Clay and Buck.
19:00Yael Eckstein joins us now from Israel.
19:04She is, of course, the president of the International Fellowship of Christians and Jews.
19:10Yael, you are over there.
19:13You are hearing what's going on and what's on the minds of the Israeli people
19:17and certainly have a sense of tensions in the region.
19:20Tell us what the latest is.
19:23Well, what we're seeing is the war of good versus evil come very, very clear
19:30to fruition. I think what we're seeing is spiritual warfare that everyone is tapping into,
19:34and we're starting to see how the light always shines, the good always wins, and
19:41we're seeing America and Israel come together in order to stand for those values of
19:45freedom, of security, of protection.
19:48And, of course, here in Israel, all of our hearts are going out to the
19:52brave servicemen and women who were killed in this fight for freedom.
19:58What is the general goal in your mind, Yael?
20:01It's great to hear from you.
20:03I look forward to seeing you in person again.
20:05What do you think the general consensus of the average Israeli citizen is now for
20:12what victory looks like in Iran?
20:15We were just talking about that off the top.
20:17What do Americans, what does the Trump administration continue to consider to be victory?
20:23What is considered victory in Israel?
20:26What's the goal now? Well, October 7th changed everything for Israel and also, I believe,
20:32for Americans that we're looking on.
20:34Up until October 7th, there were many enemies who said death to Israel, death to
20:39America, Hamas right on Israel's border was gearing up for war.
20:43And our position was always they could say whatever they want, but as long as
20:46they're not acting, we're not going to preemptively do anything to stop them.
20:51And after October 7th, what the Americans and the Israelis saw very clearly was when
20:57there is a dangerous enemy country who's saying death to America, death to Israel, when
21:03they're standing up on the parliament floor and they're burning the American flag and the
21:08Israeli flag, when they're saying first we're going to go and kill all the Saturday
21:12people, the Jews, and then we're going to go for the Sunday people and kill
21:15all of them, what we learned is that we have to take that seriously.
21:19And so what that means is that we cannot let these people who are not
21:23only oppressing their own nation, but holding the whole Western world hostage, we can't just
21:31kick the ball down the road anymore.
21:32We need to be brave for what we believe in.
21:35And I believe that God blesses when we have the right intentions, when it's to
21:41free the Western world, to stand for the sanctity of life.
21:45We see enormous... Blessings and miracles that are taking place every single day.
21:51Speaking to Yael Eckstein of the International Fellowship of Christians and Jews, now she is
21:55in Israel. Yael, could you speak to how things have changed with the Trump administration,
22:02obviously playing a large role in this, but between the relationship between the state of
22:08Israel and non -Iranian Muslim countries in the region, the Gulf states and others, because
22:17there seems to be, well, more sanity for sure coming from that part of the
22:24world with respect to Israel.
22:26I was wondering if you could speak to how that is manifesting.
22:30We have seen miracles, Clay and Vag, and you are here on the ground that
22:35you were able to witness some of that.
22:37No one thought that the Abraham Accords would happen, and then once they happened and
22:43took place an agreement between Israel and America and this Arab world, so many countries
22:48that have historically always been enemies of Israel, suddenly to have an agreement.
22:52No one thought that would happen.
22:54And then they said, okay, they signed an agreement, but it's not going to hold.
22:57And now here we are, years later, where there is a strategic alliance and partnership
23:03between these Gulf states, between Muslims, between Jews, between Christians, everyone standing together in this
23:11pursuit of freedom and the sanctity of life.
23:13And it's something that President Trump saw, that he believed in, that he worked towards.
23:19And he realized, just as we see in the scriptures, Hashem oz le 'amo yitin,
23:23Hashem yivareche tamo ba -shalom.
23:25Strengths we have to show in order to bring peace, that God blesses the nation
23:30with strength, and then God blesses the nation with peace.
23:33And so what we're seeing today with our neighbors is something historic.
23:37Iran thought that by bombing the UAE and Dubai and even some European countries, that
23:43they would turn the whole world against Israel.
23:45But really, they're just taking off the mask to see how dangerous Iran is and
23:49how much we need to come together, those of us who sanctify life in these
23:53Judeo -Christian values, to make sure the future is brighter for our children and grandchildren.
23:57One of the super positive potential outcomes here is Saudi Arabia normalizing relations with Israel.
24:07Other countries have already started it.
24:09The Abraham Accords have been a tremendous success.
24:12I think, Yael, and you may disagree, but I think that was actually the motivation
24:15for why the attack of October 7th happened, because they were trying to derail the
24:21positive progress that was being made there.
24:24How optimistic are you? Let's leave aside the next few months.
24:28Let's talk about the next few years.
24:29You've lived in Israel for a while.
24:31How optimistic are you about the future for peace?
24:35Has there been a time when you have been more optimistic in the past?
24:38How would you assess the larger picture here right now?
24:43What I know for a fact is that darkness hates light.
24:48And so when you're talking about Saudi Arabia potentially joining this Abraham Accord that would
24:53be historic, that would change the entire Middle East and would change the entire world,
24:59really, through this alliance between Israel and Saudi Arabia, between the Western world and Saudi
25:05Arabia. Yes, I think darkness tried to do everything in order to destroy that.
25:09But we know at the end of the day from the stories in the scriptures
25:12of Bilam and Balak, those who tried to curse end up blessing.
25:16We know from the story of Purim that just took place, that wicked Haman tried
25:20to kill all the Jews, but in the end he ended up being hung on
25:24the same gallows that he prepared for the innocent people.
25:27This war of October 7th began because many people like you believe that they wanted
25:34to stop the Abraham Accords from growing.
25:36They wanted to stop normalization.
25:38But what we're seeing is the same historic biblical story that we've seen time and
25:43time again. They went out to curse and they ended up blessing.
25:48Yeah, go ahead. Your daughter is in the IDF right now.
25:52I think a lot of Americans who have military members in their families think about
25:58this battle in a different way as a result because they're directly connected to it.
26:04Virtually everyone in Israel with children has children in the IDF, grandchildren in the IDF.
26:12I think a lot of Americans still have not really understood that.
26:16So can you talk about not only obviously you represent the IFCJ and you have
26:20a lot of responsibility on that front, but you're also a mom with a kid
26:25in the IDF and so are a lot of moms and dads and grandmas and
26:29grandpas. How does that impact the way this battle and this war hits in Israel
26:36and maybe a way that's different than other places?
26:39It's a great question because for each one of us, it's so personal.
26:44My 19 -year -old daughter right now is on the border of Gaza protecting this
26:48land, making sure that no terrorists can come in.
26:51When I dropped her off at the army base after she had a few days
26:54off and she went so proud and I said, are you scared?
26:58And she said, mommy, of course I'm scared, but I believe what I'm doing is
27:02meaningful. I believe what I'm doing is not only protecting the people of Israel, but
27:06protecting the values that I hold dear that are very strong in America and Europe
27:10and everywhere else. If I'm not standing here, the darkness will spread.
27:15And so for each one of us is personal in the sense of, I think
27:18my prayers are full of maybe more tears.
27:21I think my hope for peace is not just a saying, but it's in my
27:27heart. It's that my children are on the front lines.
27:30I know my son in a year is going to be joining the army.
27:34And so it's very personal.
27:37But that personal association with this war, that personal prayer that comes between every single
27:44news headline, every single siren, and every single piece of information that's coming out of
27:49this war, it's holding two, maybe you could say conflicting emotions, but really they're the
27:56same. On one hand, I want this war to be over.
28:00I want this to end.
28:01And on the other hand, I know that this is a war that is needed
28:05to protect my children and my grandchildren, that it can't end until we have fulfilled
28:11our objectives. And while we're in the middle of fighting this war, what we can
28:15do, every one of us, my daughter's on the front lines, but you know what?
28:19I'm going bomb shelter to bomb shelter, delivering food to Holocaust survivors.
28:22My daughter's on the front line, but I'm going to schools and placing bomb shelters
28:27on behalf of the fellowship.
28:29What I see is that everyone can do their part to bring more light.
28:33We can't just sit back and complain.
28:34We can't just curse the darkness.
28:36We can't just be consumed by self -righteous anger.
28:39We have to go out and help.
28:42Yael, I appreciate you coming on, telling us what's going on in Israel right now.
28:47Stay safe. Keep your family safe as well.
28:50And know that a lot of people all over the United States are praying for
28:54you guys and for everybody who is involved in fighting evil right now.
28:58We feel it. Thank you so much.
29:00God bless you. That's Yael Eckstein of the IFCJ.
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30:46feed on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts.
30:50Welcome back in here to Clay and Buck.
30:53And we're going to be talking more about all of the Iran news today.
30:57We'll also get into the James Tallarico situation in Texas.
31:01And we'll talk to our friend Ryan Gerdusky about the primary, where some of that
31:05is. President Trump reportedly going to endorse in the Texas primary, which is an interesting
31:11change of pace. So we shall get into some of that.
31:18Podcast listener David in Texas wants to weigh in on the Iran situation.
31:23Play H. This is David in Texas.
31:26I have a thought. The allies, USA, Israel, and anyone else that wants to play
31:31along knows where the rallies are happening against the regime in Iran.
31:37Airdrop weapons to the people.
31:38We keep talking about how the biggest problem for the people is that they're unarmed.
31:43Well, get them armed, and they can overthrow their own government.
31:46I wish it was that easy.
31:48Yeah, so here's the challenge.
31:50It's one thing to say, hey, they're going to overthrow the government.
31:55You could speak. I mean, I bet you did a bunch of deep dives on
31:59how the government. A bunch of government overthrows in my day can neither confirm nor
32:03deny. So my point on it would be, look, we are kicking Iran's ass because
32:09we have much better men and materiel, and we are exposing the gap between what
32:15Iran claimed to be able to do and what they're actually able to do.
32:19All of that's very positive.
32:20The average poorly armed Iranian military group dwarfs any kind of opposition armament that could
32:32rise up against them, right?
32:33And so this idea that what you need to have happen, and you tell me
32:39if I'm wrong or right on this based on your actual expertise in this.
32:42Thank you. you have to have the military get behind someone new in order to
32:49have any kind of successful attempt to overthrow the existing government, right?
32:54And unless the military is willing to line up behind someone new, this idea that
33:00you're going to have X number of people storm a facility, as long as the
33:06military is committed to the government in power, there is almost no opportunity at all
33:10to ever have a successful coup.
33:12Would that be a pretty succinct analysis of where we are?
33:16Yeah, this is why you generally see either a general or maybe the head of
33:22the security service in a coup situation, which is what we're really dealing with here.
33:27We can use that word.
33:28I mean, we are essentially trying to midwife a coup into existence.
33:35We are trying to bring about a coup in Iran.
33:37That is what this air campaign ultimately is, and I think we should be honest
33:41about that. But you've got about a half a million Iranian men, 600 ,000 Iranian
33:50men under arms, plus you've got tens of thousands of besieged.
33:55Those are the Iranian or the Islamic Revolution's brown shirts.
34:00They go around, and they're the street thugs, so you've got tens of thousands of
34:04them. So this is very complicated, because the answer, Clay, is yes.
34:10You do need, by the way, this is why in Afghanistan, yeah, we use the
34:14Northern Alliance to kick out the Taliban, but then do you know who we had
34:17to work with? Pashtun warlords, province by province.
34:22Guys who had guys on the payroll with guns, and some of them were very
34:27bad hombres. But that was what we had, and it didn't end up working out
34:32for us in the long term, but there really wasn't another option, and that eventually
34:38included a major U .S.
34:41occupation force, and it still didn't work.
34:43So you want to work within the existing power structure to the greatest degree possible
34:50while lopping off the head of the power structure.
34:53It's not an easy thing to pull off here.
34:59I wonder. Like I said, Venezuela, I think it's a pretty straightforward pathway, and I
35:03think Venezuela is on a trajectory of things just getting better and better.
35:08I really do. Iran, 50 -50.
35:11This thing could go either way.
35:12I'm just being honest. This thing could go either way.
35:15So we will continue to monitor this, and in terms of the political ramifications, what
35:23I told you yesterday is I think where this is going to go.
35:26Democrats are not able to oppose the taking out of Khamenei because they recognize that
35:31he was a terrorist, and America is safer without him gone.
35:35But what they're going to do is they're going to say, hey, gas prices are
35:41going up. The number one issue in the 2026 midterm is going to be the
35:47economy and in particular affordability.
35:50And if they are able to argue that Trump has gotten dragged into a cesspool,
35:56a morass, a quagmire in the Iranian marketplace in that battle, then it's going to
36:06cost all of us more money to fill up our gas tanks, and that is
36:09going to be a Democrat talking point in 2026.
36:12So I think Trump wants this thing resolved.
36:15If I were betting, I think Trump wants this thing resolved by May.
36:19So that gives him about two months to really kind of go to town here.
36:23And Iran knows that. And so you've got a different calendar of sorts in the
36:29way that Iran is thinking and the way that the United States is thinking.
36:32And then you toss in the wild card of Israel, and we will see.
36:36But I do think you're right.
36:38Venezuela is on track to be an incredible success story in our backyard, effectively.
36:42We'll break down that and more what's going on in the Senate in Texas.
36:46That's next. This is an iHeart Podcast.
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