It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind America’s Transgender Debate: New Polls Reveal a Growing Political Divide
2/23/202634 mincomplete
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1:32Complete disclosures available at public .com slash disclosures.
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2:23Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Gerduski.
2:26Thank you guys for being here.
2:27Happy Monday, everyone. A poll just came out splitting the online left in half, and
2:32I want to talk to you all about it because it shows the level of
2:36delusion by activists on the left in this country on certain issues and how they
2:42are unwilling to concede something very obvious to the rest of us, especially conservatives, but
2:48to the American public at large.
2:50What am I talking about?
2:51I'm sure you're wondering. There is a guy named Lakesha Jane.
2:55I'm pretty sure I'm pronouncing his first name correctly.
2:57If I'm not, Mr. Jane, please, I apologize.
3:00I'm sure you've never heard of him.
3:01He's a software engineer out in California, but he also examines and collects political data
3:05for a bunch of left -leaning publications.
3:08I don't know him, but he seems to be, you know, fairly left of center
3:11but thoughtful. And even when I disagree with him on his outcome, I say, wow,
3:16he's not a dummy. He really did the work to come to this conclusion, and
3:20he's very intelligent, whether or not I disagree with him or agree with him.
3:24Well, on February 17th, he published a piece for a publication called The Argument called
3:28The Trans Rights Backlash Is Real, and this is how the piece begins.
3:32In 2016, North Carolina's Republican governor, Pat McCroy, threw his political weight behind HB2, a
3:39measure commonly known as the bathroom bill.
3:41The law, which required transgender people to use public restrooms corresponding to their biological sex,
3:47prompted an immense public outcry that resulted in business boycotts, widespread condemnation, including from Donald
3:54Trump himself, and eventually the end of McCroy's governorship.
3:57Today, the landscape around the issue could not be more different.
4:01As shown by The Argument's latest national survey of registered voters, in fact, 52 %
4:07of voters now support legislation requiring trans people to use bathrooms corresponding to their biological
4:14sex, while only 33 % oppose.
4:17And so in the piece, he examines polling he did based on 1 ,003 registered
4:22voters. That was the sample size.
4:24I looked at the overall methodology.
4:26It looked pretty good. And it was questions related to trans issues, so I wanted
4:30to go into it. When asked about how voters feel about the transgender bathroom restriction,
4:3452 % of voters supported, as I said, 39 % being very supportive, while only
4:4033 % opposed. That includes 81 % of Trump supporters and 25 % of Harris
4:48voters. When asked about several policies around trans issues, the numbers were overwhelmingly one -sided,
4:54and it wasn't in a way that progressives like.
4:5762 % opposed. 62 % opposed allowing gender surgeries on minors.
5:0227 % supported having gender surgeries on minors.
5:0556 % opposed allowing puberty blockers for minors.
5:0932 % opposed that policy.
5:1253 % prohibited the teaching about gender identity in school.
5:1737 % supported it. 60 % supported a national law required.
5:2360 % supported a national law required.
5:23trans athletes in K -12 schools to compete with people of the sex they were
5:29born in. Only 25 % opposed.
5:32The only issue and the only policy where the pro -trans community had a large
5:37support was banning discrimination against transgender people when it came to housing and hiring.
5:4363 % supported a bill to ban that from happening, 25 % opposed.
5:48What's interesting is that while almost all Trump voters have a one -sided opinion on
5:54the issue, they're all against the trans ideology in almost every case except for the
5:58discrimination part of it, Harris supporters were very split.
6:02When asked the question about trans athletes in K -12 education, 38 % of Harris
6:08voters supported the idea that trans athletes had to compete against members of the sex
6:14they were born in. 41 % supported having the sex that they identify with.
6:19When asked about reassignment surgery on minors, 38 % of Harris voters opposed it while
6:2549 % supported it. When asked about puberty blockers, 31 % of Harris supporters banned
6:32it while 58 % said they should, minors should be allowed to have puberty blockers.
6:36And even though support for same -sex marriage remains high, an issue synonymous with the
6:41Democratic Party after, you know, two and a half decades of trying to stop it
6:44on behalf of Republicans. When asked which party best reflects the issues of the LGBT
6:50issues and gender issues, a plurality of voters said Republicans actually better identify with them
6:59on those values, 39 % to 38 % being for Democrats, while neither party had
7:0526%. Remember, this comes as support for same -sex marriage remains at a two -third,
7:12two and three Americans supported.
7:14This is an issue. The trans issue is not only dividing Americans away from the
7:19Democratic Party, but it is a toxic element within the party that they themselves don't
7:25even agree with universally. Trans issues is not gay marriage.
7:30It's not gay rights. This is not gaining momentum over time.
7:34This is actually losing it.
7:36And it reminds me of a New York Times column that was written by Andrew
7:39Sullivan. He's a, I think he was a former conservative, but he was, he's a
7:43gay writer with HIV. And he wrote where, he wrote that the gay rights movement
7:47has basically won every battle they ever fought for going back since the late 80s,
7:51early 90s. They fought on gay marriage and they won discrimination and housing and hiring
7:55and, and the end of the AIDS epidemic.
7:58But those gay non -profits, those LGBT non -profits that fought on gay marriage and
8:04discrimination and, and better funding for AIDS of patients, they made hundreds of millions of
8:11dollars and they couldn't let that gravy train end.
8:15Even though they won, all right, the battles are basically over.
8:19They should close up shop all but, you know, a few outposts to do studies,
8:23but they won't because they can't stop the money from coming in.
8:27It is about the money.
8:29So they picked a new hobby horse.
8:31It's the trans issue. It's transing children.
8:34It's rewriting human nature over the idea that gender is a binary and efforts to
8:39end the gender binary. It all fell apart and it continues to fall apart because
8:44it's an issue that's incredibly toxic to voters and politicians.
8:48The most important ad of the 2024 election cycle was the Trump ad where he
8:54talked about Harris supporting government -sponsored sexual reassignment surgeries for illegal immigrants and the ad
9:00read, Donald Trump is for you, Harris is for they, them.
9:03It was devastating to the Harris campaign.
9:05It was the biggest indicator that she was out of touch with ordinary Americans and
9:10she was too liberal to be president.
9:13And the crazy thing is that progressives, if they took a moment of self -reflection,
9:17they would realize that this issue is something that they don't even have broad support
9:22in their own party. They would look at this data and say, wow, one in
9:26three absolutely oppose most of these policies and only half, maybe 60 % of Democrats
9:33support them. We should have a reflection.
9:36And this all comes, this pushback against the trans issues comes as a larger amount
9:43of Americans know a trans person and the like.
9:45There are trans celebrities, trans people on television, but unlike when Ellen DeGeneres had her
9:50puppy episode where she came out as gay or the show, Will and Grace came
9:54out, this has not made people more sympathetic to the issue.
9:59It has made them less so because they know it is wrong and not beneficial
10:04to children. Their targeting of children has made it incredibly toxic.
10:10And I need to be clear to Republicans though, who are hearing this information because
10:16the voters are overwhelmingly on the side of the Republican party when it comes to
10:21trans issue does not mean you can run a political campaign for office solely based
10:28on trans issues. Because even though the public agrees with us at large, it is
10:35not a high enough priority to make it the central issue of any campaign.
10:39We learned that several times.
10:41You cannot make the mistake the Republican nominee made in Virginia who only talked about
10:46trans issues. You need to talk about education and energy and immigration and re -industrialization
10:51and AI. guy and yada, yada, yada.
10:52You know what I'm talking about.
10:53There has to be a large plethora of issues.
10:56But I can tell you that the Republicans, that you need not only have a
11:02diverse level of opinions, but also Republicans have been smart in how they have approached
11:08certain culture issues that they knew were too toxic for the party, right?
11:13Republicans dropped the nationwide abortion ban.
11:16They dropped the opposition to gay marriage as part of their platform.
11:19And you may think maybe Democrats would have a similar position over the trans issue.
11:24Maybe Democrats would learn from Republicans and say, well, look, you know, Republicans moved on
11:30certain things because it was too toxic, it was too politically unpopular.
11:33Democrats should do the same.
11:34They won't. Think again. I will tell you how the left treated the data scientists
11:40that published this poll. That's coming up next.
11:45Santana, Oneness Tour 2026. The power, the energy.
11:50Come celebrate your favorite hits from Woodstock to Supernatural and beyond with very special guest,
11:56the Doobie Brothers. Get tickets now at LiveNation .com.
12:09Santana and Doobie Brothers won this tour 2026.
12:15Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it
12:19seriously. On Public, you can build a multi -asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto,
12:25and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index
12:29with AI. It all starts with your prompt from renewable energy companies with high free
12:33cashflow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20 % year over year.
12:37You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work.
12:40It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one -of -a -kind index, and lets you
12:44backtest it against the S &P 500.
12:46Then you can invest in a few clicks.
12:48Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis,
12:53not someone else's. Go to public .com slash podcast and earn an uncapped 1 %
12:58bonus when you transfer your portfolio.
13:00That's public .com slash podcast.
13:02Paid for by Public Investing.
13:03Brokered services by Open to the Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA, and SIPC.
13:06Advisory services by Public Advisors, LLC, SEC Registered Advisor.
13:08Generated assets is an interactive analysis tool.
13:10Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice.
13:13Complete disclosures available at public .com slash disclosures.
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14:12Lenovo. So as I said, Lakeshia Jane put up these numbers showing that there was
14:21a broad consensus against the trans issue, including hormone blockers for minors, trans people using
14:26bathrooms, other biological sex, restrictions in sports.
14:29Well, I thought the numbers were fascinating, so I invited him on this podcast.
14:33And he's a client. And he said it wasn't because, you know, I was some
14:36evil right winger and they, you know, he can't talk to me.
14:39It was because he's been threatened so many times by the left for even putting
14:44the numbers out there. And I know, you know, I know what it's like to
14:48have an online mob come against you and even send some death threats out.
14:52See, progressives have been conditioned to believe that it is impossible for them to lose
14:57any support when it comes to social issues, when it comes to the culture war.
15:02They're like, hey, you know, yeah, we cut off teenage girls' healthy breasts.
15:06We tried to secretly trans kids in schools, call them by different names, block kids'
15:10natural puberty, causing lifelong damage, and have a small army of detransitioners who are, you
15:16know, screaming how this scarred them for life.
15:18But we're really shocked that people are against the transgender issues.
15:23We're stunned that not everyone's on our side.
15:26Progressives can't seem to understand that it's not the public is in step with conservatives.
15:30It's that conservatives are in step with the public on this issue.
15:35So what was the response the liberal left on the online when it came to
15:38what the poll showed? I'm not going to repeat any of the actual threads that
15:43Lake Shen received because I don't want to give them airtime.
15:45But what some of the legitimate people with careers in politics and journalism were saying
15:50was pretty shocking. The D .C.
15:52Bureau Chief Eric Michael Garcia said the backlash cannot be separated from the years of
15:56concerted right -wing messaging about biological males.
15:59I guess he's talking about J .K.
16:01Rowling, you know, that insane right -winger who has supported socialists candidates her entire life
16:05and was received a plethora of death threats over the fact that she says biological
16:11sex is real and women should be protected.
16:14That hardened right -winger, probably the most famous person in the world, speaks.
16:19about transgender issues? What about G.
16:21Elliott Morris? He is one of the most incompetent pollsters in the country.
16:25He was one of the many pollsters, but probably one of the most famous when
16:28he was working for, I believe it was The Economist, who said that Hillary Clinton
16:31had a 99 % chance of winning in 2016 and gave Kamala Harris the edge
16:36in the, gave her the edge in the 2024 election.
16:39He said the whole thing was based on just bad faith arguments.
16:42It's just bad faith arguments.
16:43It's not, ignore the data.
16:45By the way, this data from the, that was published in the argument is one
16:49of many data points saying the same thing, but it's all just bad faith arguments.
16:53Don't look, add to it.
16:55Retreat to blue sky or wherever the echo chamber you most, you know, support, get
17:00supporters from. That's the goal from G.
17:03Elliott Morris. One Democratic, Democratic Hill staffer named Zachary Ibera, he said, we need to
17:07change the word puberty blockers to puberty delayers.
17:11No, Zachary, you're not just delaying puberty and then poof, everything goes back to normal.
17:16Puberty blockers create lifelong damage around fertility, bone health, brain and cognitive function, height, and
17:23there are risks around cardiovascular and metabolic diseases and other health risks.
17:28Talking about puberty blockers, like it's something you could turn on and then turn off
17:32is like saying, you know, we could shut down the economy for COVID -19 and
17:35then poof, turn it back on and everything's back to normal.
17:37It's not that conservatives are being dishonest about this stuff.
17:41It's that progressives are either knowingly or willingly lying about the dangers of trying to
17:47stop a child's healthy and normal puberty.
17:51Jill Filipovic, I'm slaughtering her last name, Filipovic, I believe she's a progressive writer, has
17:58a very large social media following.
18:00She said she believed the trans right issue is just another civil rights issue and
18:03progressives have alienated people by insisting that they follow the science.
18:07No, Jill, you know who hasn't checked out the science lately?
18:11I know a lot of liberals are very conditioned to believe that the science always
18:15justifies whatever their opinions are because they're the party of science because they're always right
18:20with science is what they've been saying since the great global warming pandemic of the
18:24early 2000s. But the science is very clear about transgender hormone therapy and surgeries among
18:30youth. The 2024 CAST review in the UK, a comprehensive independent evaluation of youth gender
18:36services concluded that the evidence based for puberty blockers is, quote, remarkably weak and inconsistent,
18:43showing little reliable improvement in gender dysphoria, mental health, or quality of life.
18:48It recommended restricting blockers to clinical trials and prioritizing psychological support, leading to a ban
18:56of routine prescriptions in England in March of 2024, except in exceptional cases.
19:02A 2024 systematic review commissioned by the Society for Evidence -Based Gender Medicine evaluate mastectomies
19:10for gender dysphoria in those under 26 years old, finding very low certainty evidence of
19:16benefits and highlighting risk. Additional reviews on blockers and hormones are ongoing.
19:21A long -term U .S.
19:23study initiated in 2015 on puberty blockers, this was very famously published in 2024, after
19:29the results of the study were so not favorable to what they were hoping for
19:35that they held it up for years.
19:36They found that no significant mental health improvements after two years in 95 transgender youth,
19:43contradicting earlier Dutch research that inspired widespread use.
19:47The lead research delayed the full publication amid political concerns, is what I was saying
19:52before. The evidence is all on one side, and that is why countries like the
19:57U .K., Sweden, Italy, Finland, Norway, Denmark, France, and New Zealand have all been placing
20:02restrictions and bans on hormone therapy in children.
20:05This is not just Texas and Utah and Florida doing this.
20:10This is those socialist countries in Europe that Democrats say is the ideal, that we
20:15should emulate. They are sitting there and pushing the same exact hormone blocker bans that
20:22the Republicans are. Noah Smith, who's another liberal writer who has the basic political instincts
20:27of a line after it's been taxidermied and stuck on a wall, said he really
20:30believed that Americans are prepared to grant bathroom access as a civil right.
20:34No, no, they are not.
20:36And the evidence is overwhelmingly on one side about that, especially after there have been
20:41a number of men who, for nefarious reasons, have identified as women to sexually assault
20:47women and girls in bathrooms, including teenage boys who do this to teenage girls.
20:51There's plenty of stories out of Northern Virginia, which had an insane school policy regarding
20:56this. Actually, it kicked off the Republican interest in education, was the insanity coming out
21:01of Northern Virginia. And there were countless other posts from anonymous accounts or people not
21:06worthy of mentioning whose name, who, you know, named Lake Shin as a data hustler,
21:11who said the Republicans were at fault for lying on the issues.
21:14Others said it was a flat out lie and pointed to the campaign where Democrats
21:18successfully campaigned defending trans issues like the governor's races in Kentucky and Virginia.
21:23They were not only talking, they did not run for governor, by the way, on
21:26trans issues. They just made it one of many issues.
21:29And as I said, in most cases, the trans issue is not the highest priority
21:33for voters. They just happen to agree with conservatives when it is discussed.
21:36They also said Democrats that's ceded ground.
21:39But that's just not true.
21:40Biden had the most amount of trans visibility of any president in history.
21:46I mean, he had he had transgender people in his administration.
21:50He had transgender celebrities campaigning for him.
21:53So did Kamala Harris. This is just an utter lie from people who can't stand.
21:57The facts are not on their side.
21:59And I told Lake Shen, I said, I hope you're safe.
22:02I hope that your mental health is well.
22:03I hope you stay safe.
22:04And I know what it's like when liberals don't hear something they don't like, even
22:08if it's a joke on CNN.
22:09But liberals have fashioned this as the new civil rights issue.
22:14Not only do I know what the intensity is like when liberals have to hear
22:17something they don't like. I know for a fact that there are some liberal parents
22:21that are openly rooting for their children to become transgender.
22:26I know a lot of people like no one roots for their children to be
22:29ostracized. Yes, they do. I know two separate parents who I'm not close with, but
22:35I know them through other friends.
22:37They're not in my inner circle.
22:39Who are openly, and they say it, they hope their children are transgender.
22:43They are so deeply embedded into this cult of identity politics, of critical theory, just
22:52absolutely brainwashed to the point that you could not help them.
22:57You could not sit there and, I know I just said sit there and I
23:01always say I'm not going to sit there.
23:02You could not sit them down and try to rationalize and reason with them.
23:07They are not capable of it.
23:10They are fully entrenched in this ideology.
23:13And the reason why democratic politicians cannot come to grips with this, with the fact
23:18that their party has hurtled themselves into an unpopular position that most Americans not only
23:24disagree with, but are increasingly against, because they are afraid of the same online community.
23:29They are afraid of people in the commentary class who refuse to acknowledge reality.
23:36And they are too afraid to speak honestly.
23:41Coming up next is Ask Me Anything.
23:45Santana, Oneness Tour 2026. Santana, Oneness Tour 2026.
23:48The power, the energy. Come celebrate your favorite hits from Woodstock to Supernatural and beyond
23:53with very special guest, the Doobie Brothers.
24:00Get tickets now at LiveNation .com.
24:08Santana and Doobie Brothers, Oneness Tour 2026.
24:11If you are, you'll forget about it.
24:14Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it
24:18seriously. On Public, you can build a multi -asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto,
24:24and now generated assets, which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index
24:28with AI. It all starts with your prompt.
24:30From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over
24:3520 % year over year.
24:36You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work.
24:39It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one -of -a -kind index, and lets you
24:43backtest it against the S &P 500.
24:45Then you can invest in a few clicks.
24:47Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis,
24:53not someone else's. Go to public .com slash podcast and earn an uncapped 1 %
24:57bonus when you transfer your portfolio.
24:59That's public .com slash podcast.
25:01Paid for by Public Investing.
25:02Brokered services by Open to the Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA, and SIPC.
25:05Advisory services by Public Advisors, LLC, SEC Registered Advisor.
25:08Generated assets is an interactive analysis tool.
25:09Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice.
25:12Complete disclosures available at public .com slash disclosures.
25:15Virgin Voyages presents With Love from the Caribbean.
25:19I planned to do absolutely nothing on this cruise, but then we discovered there's so
25:23much to do. Next time, you're coming with us.
25:26Just say yes to award -winning kid -free cruising.
25:28Book now at virginvoyages .com.
25:31Pro drivers live for race day, but for small business owners, every day is race
25:36day. That's why going pro with Lenovo Pro matters.
25:41One -on -one advice, IT solutions, and customized hardware powered by Intel Core Ultra Processors
25:46keep your business on the right track.
25:49Business goes pro with Lenovo Pro.
25:53Sign up for free at lenovo .com slash pro.
25:57Lenovo, Lenovo. Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment.
26:04And if you want to be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email me
26:07ryan at numbersgamepodcast .com. That's ryan at numbersgamepodcast .com.
26:12Plural numbers. This question comes from Peter Fumo.
26:15I think my biggest supporter emails me quite a bit.
26:19Peter says, can you expand on the warning of the construction industry?
26:23Warning Trump, GOP will lose South Texas.
26:25Immigration laws are enforced too strongly.
26:28Peter, this is something that the corporate class does all the time.
26:33And in fact, when I'll take you back to 2012, when the Republican autopsy was
26:39being created about why Mitt Romney lost, business interest invested in the autopsy saying we
26:47need an amnesty. They lied about it.
26:49It was in some book on the 2020 or 2024 election that I read.
26:54I forget which one. It was the first time I had realized it, that they
26:57actually openly lied in their publication of the autopsy, that the autopsy never stated that
27:03and they inserted it because it was good for business interest.
27:06They will always say, business interest will always say something that will light, you know,
27:11to light your hair on fire if you call for it.
27:14They told me not to act on fire in the 80s.
27:14They were going to be relationship with the moment that I wanted to respect the
27:14truck for it. any type of regulation when something is harmful.
27:17They will call for, that is the end of the world when you call for
27:19any kind of tax issue or any kind of labor issue.
27:23So I don't believe them, right?
27:25I mean, maybe I'll be wrong.
27:26Maybe I will be end up being wrong.
27:28I do not think that South Texas, no matter how they vote in this election,
27:31because remember South Texas, even though they supported Trump, did not support Cruz and they
27:36didn't, even areas that did support him, support him at a much lower rate than
27:40they supported Trump. They're not Republicans yet, but go back to any issue on AI.
27:45Something I talk about a lot in this podcast, when you talk about AI regulations
27:49to protect people, they say, what do they say?
27:51We're going to lose to China.
27:53You want China to win.
27:54Well, no, that's, it's not an if end, like it's not an if or, like
27:58there is gray in this conversation.
28:00And same thing about immigration and labor.
28:02And that's just, that's just the truth.
28:04I mean, they say this, all the fruits are rotting in the street.
28:06How many times have you heard fields?
28:08How many times have you heard that fruit is rotting in the field because they
28:11just can't get enough workers?
28:13If that were true, I mean, it's not true, but we have an H -2A
28:17visa for farmhand workers that is limitless.
28:20You can have as many as you want come in to pick fruit.
28:23It's all a lie. I cannot emphasize to you, it is all a lie.
28:27They will say or do anything to continue the endless gravy train of cheap labor
28:33to the United States. They do not care what happens to the country as a
28:36whole. They don't care what happens to the Republican Party as a whole.
28:38It's about money. It's very sad, but it is.
28:41So Trump shouldn't blink and should dare them.
28:43Same. All right. We'll see.
28:44Next question. And last one for the episode comes from Derek.
28:47He writes, Hey, Ryan, love your show.
28:48What are your thoughts on Rupert Lowe and Restore Britain?
28:51It seems like they're trying to have a true nationalist populist party and it's outflanking
28:55Farage from the right. How would you predict this plays out in the run up
28:58to 2029? That's the next election cycle for the UK unless they call one earlier.
29:03Unlike America, most countries in Europe, you can call an election whenever you want.
29:10That's why some elections are three years out, four years out, two years out.
29:13But nonetheless, they have a limitation until you have to call it.
29:16So 2029 is the year they have to call it.
29:18Listen, I like a lot of what Rupert says.
29:21I don't like all of it, but I don't live in that country.
29:23He's very wealthy. He'd have to put some money to recruitment.
29:27It's very difficult to have a substantial third party in the UK.
29:32And I was just talking to my British friends about this.
29:35They don't think it's going to be a serious challenge.
29:38One, Nigel is a very unique figure in British politics, probably the most important politician
29:46in the UK since Margaret Thatcher.
29:48I would argue that piece very substantially, that he is the most important British politician
29:52since Margaret Thatcher. And Rupert would have to, one, find competitive candidates.
29:58He says he only wants candidates who are not professional politicians, so he has to
30:02train them about how to campaign, has to get funding for their campaigns, which there's
30:06very strict limitations on funding in the UK.
30:08It's not like America where you could spend a billion dollars.
30:10But they also have to try and then get responsible candidates who can run real
30:15races and try to outflank him.
30:17It's a very difficult thing.
30:20There are local elections happening this year.
30:22I would like to see where Restore Britain does as far as fielding candidates and
30:27getting them over the finish line in the local elections.
30:30I feel like if he can get some in local elections, maybe could he get
30:33up a play in a few House of Commons seats?
30:37But I don't put a lot of stake.
30:39Listen, starting a third party in Britain is not as hard as America, but it's
30:42very, very difficult. The only thing that has caused, I was getting this argument with
30:47these British friends and they said, look how long it took Nigel.
30:50I'm like, yes, but Nigel has quit politics at least three or four times and
30:54went into private business to earn money and then came back.
30:58If he had stayed in there for a very long time, I think maybe he'd
31:01be earlier. But Nigel's brilliance is that he's always run the populist wave.
31:07When the wave was going out, he was on top of the wave.
31:10And when the wave was coming in, he was back in private industry.
31:13And it was viewed that he was the only person, right or wrong, maybe he
31:17was, maybe he wasn't, but that he was the only person who could bring a
31:20populist revolution to Britain. So that's what I think is going on there.
31:25They really hate Nigel among the establishment parties.
31:28Even a lot of voters don't like Nigel, but they like the Reform Party.
31:31They just think that the politics is broken as is.
31:34So I wish him the best of luck to Rupert Lowe.
31:37He was a member of Reform UK.
31:38He was elected, he was one of the few elected in the House of Commons
31:41on Reform UK. But it's going to be very, very difficult.
31:45I don't think they will act as a spoiler for either Nigel or the Tories
31:50yet. Let's see if they can win a few local races.
31:53I will treat him seriously if we come out at the end of this year
31:56and he's got a few local seats, either in the councils or maybe a mayorship
32:02or something like that. But until then, I'm going to hold my breath and say
32:05it's really right now, Nigel's race to lose.
32:08So anyway, that's the episode.
32:09Happy Monday, everybody. I will see you guys on Wednesday.
32:11If you like this podcast, please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,
32:15wherever you get your podcasts.
32:17And I will talk to you guys later.
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