David Rutherford Show: Seth Keshel On The 2026 Midterm Disaster Republicans Aren't Ready For
4/27/202645 mincomplete
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast.
0:02Guaranteed human. After the recent Virginia election, one of the challenging things that we still
0:08face is, are mail -in ballots gonna affect the future midterms?
0:13Well, today I'm bringing on one of the top experts in the field, Captain Seth
0:18Keschel to the program today on the David Rutherford Show.
0:31Captain Keschel, welcome to the program.
0:33Thank you so much, sir, for coming in on a Sunday.
0:36Well, I'm really glad to be on with you, David.
0:38I know we've been playing tag.
0:39I'm trying to get this thing scheduled.
0:40And I think I told you before the show, you know, it's easier to get
0:44me within about 10 hours of notice than it is to book me two months
0:47out. So I'm glad that we're able to do this.
0:50Well, I tell you what, I thought I was busy traveling.
0:53You know, I pretty much travel every week for my day job, but, you know,
0:56you were just bouncing all over the country and I just, before we get going,
1:02I just want to thank you for the seminal work you've been doing since 2020.
1:05I remember you in the beginning of this whole nightmare and, you know, it's interesting.
1:11We were chatting before getting on, you know, we need more veterans, whether from the
1:17intel community, the operator community, whatever it is, to step into this battlefield of getting
1:22our elections squared away. And so I just commend you for doing that.
1:26Well, I feel the same way about all veterans, you included.
1:29That are, that are busy fighting the fight.
1:32You, you have a really important role in the, in the information space.
1:35And there's so much bad information and mental junk food out there that if we
1:39don't find people that know how to put truth rounds down range, we're going to
1:42lose the battle before it really even culminates.
1:45Oh, well that I agree wholeheartedly.
1:47So, so let's jump in.
1:48Can you just give us, I don't know, like a short overview of your thoughts
1:52on what took place in the Virginia redistricting special election?
1:57Well, we have a number of, of things at hand.
2:01The yes referendum passed on Tuesday by a margin of about three points, less than
2:06a hundred thousand votes. And of course we had no, which was the best side
2:11of this, which wrote a preserved, legitimately fair maps.
2:14Virginia had one of the most balanced congressional maps you could find anywhere.
2:18And you have a, you had a lead for no all night long, nine point
2:23lead with the in -person election day vote with almost three out of five votes
2:28coming in person on election day.
2:30You had a very even race.
2:31It was yes, plus almost two points in the in -person early vote.
2:35And then 11 % of the vote was through the mail and it went, it
2:38went yes, plus 45 points.
2:40Wow. Sufficient margin to completely gloss over no's hopes.
2:45And everything in Virginia ran right at the 2024 presidential margins, except for Northern Virginia.
2:51So you can either look at that as maybe Northern Virginia voters voted to take
2:55that power away from other states, which is a problem in and of itself, or
2:59perhaps that's where the cheating was going on.
3:01I tend to think it's a combination of both, but Fairfax and Richmond counties held
3:05back their votes until all but every, almost every county in Virginia had reported two
3:10small Southern Virginia counties hadn't yet reported with almost no votes.
3:13But we have, we have the yes referendum passing.
3:17And then immediately after the next day, the Tazewell County court struck down the referendum
3:24in terms of not allowing the state to certify that.
3:27So that's going to wind up in the Virginia Supreme Court.
3:29I believe there's hearings tomorrow on that.
3:31And we're going to have to hope that the Virginia Supreme Court sees that it's
3:34blatantly against the state constitution, which adopted an independent redistricting commission after a 2020 measure
3:41on the ballot. So I'm not confident that's going to happen because too often we
3:47see things that are a layup that should happen and the courts do what the
3:49courts do. Our courts are very corrupt.
3:51And the, you know, the Virginia Supreme Court may come here and say, well, they're
3:55going to write an opinion and they may say, well, this isn't good.
3:59I hope that this stops.
4:00Somebody needs to make sure this doesn't happen again, but the people have spoken.
4:03Or perhaps they're just going to rule on the numerous issues.
4:05And it's not just the constitution forbidding that.
4:08Ken Cuccinelli on X, he ran for governor in 2013, been around Virginia Republican politics
4:15a long time, points out several other issues with the referendum itself, especially the timeframes
4:20in which it was pushed out to the public.
4:22So right now, we're hoping for judicial relief on the injunction.
4:26Otherwise, Virginia is going to pick up four freebie Democrat House seats.
4:31Is it possible? I mean, obviously after 2020, we saw a lot of kind of
4:36cases get to the Supreme Court of their particular states, whether it was Pennsylvania or
4:42Michigan or wherever, wherever these all the way, you know, all these, these real questionable
4:47challenges that they said, all right, there's no standing.
4:50There was a whole list that we've covered them on the past show about elections.
4:55Is there, do you have any hope that this could go to the Supreme Court,
5:00the Supreme Court of Virginia hears it, they deny it, and then somehow it gets
5:07to the United States Supreme Court?
5:10Or do they have any jurisdictions as states to begin to do redistricting?
5:15No, I don't know what the pathway in case the Virginia Supreme Court sides with
5:20the yes referendum. I don't know if there is a pathway to put that in
5:24front of the Supreme Court.
5:25that there is a property That's totally outside of my purview.
5:27I've been hearing that it's going to be decided by the Virginia Supreme Court.
5:30However, the California and Texas redistricting issues ran to the Supreme Court, too.
5:36And I think they sided with both and said, if you're going to do it,
5:39you can do it, too.
5:40But I do not think on paper that the redistricting for power is a good
5:45thing. But I think now it's in terms of pragmatism, it's a necessary thing.
5:49I don't think it's something that should be continued on.
5:53Now, it looks like the governor of Florida is going to counter Virginia.
5:57And what would be really funny is if the court in Virginia strikes down the
6:00redistrict referendum and DeSantis still grabs three or four seats.
6:07It's interesting. I mean, the one that really got me and, you know, you put
6:11out so many great maps and graphs of all these types of things.
6:15And what on your on your X page and and on your website, on your
6:19sub stack, which I highly recommend everybody check out.
6:22You know, you look up at New England and you go from what, Connecticut or
6:27New York all the way up.
6:29You got 40 percent of the population represented for Republican voters.
6:33And yet they don't have a single seat in the House.
6:37That seems to be kind of how this, I don't know, political battlefield is being
6:45played. Now you've got, obviously, the election integrity stuff of mail in balloting, the potential
6:51flaw in the machines. You've I mean, you know, dark money funding.
6:57And then on the other side, you have this just consummate just gerrymandering of all
7:08these different areas. I mean, you look at California's and they just keep whittling down
7:13the largest state in the country.
7:15And pretty soon you're going to have like, you know, this checkerboarded over Sacramento and
7:22all the places, the rural areas where you've got Republican voters.
7:24You know, can you just describe the main flaws that you see in the system
7:31that you believe could be corrected through legal channels from the federal government?
7:40I do think that by the end of this decade, somebody is going to put
7:43a suit in in the Supreme Court.
7:46Seeing the chaos out there may issue some sort of a new guidance, a new
7:52law or not a law.
7:53They give laws, but they might issue a new ruling that will strike down any
7:56sort of gerrymandering type plans.
7:58I do think that in theory that the independent redistricting commissions are good ideas.
8:05The problem with the theory is that, you know, nobody's truly independent.
8:09You can get all the independent minded people you want, but everybody is usually on
8:13one side of this debate or another.
8:14And they're able to be swayed.
8:16I mean, we've got an independent redistricting commission in a number of states that still
8:19come up with maps like California's, which was 43 to 9 Democrat, despite California being
8:2535 to 40 percent Republican, even with their fraudulent elections there.
8:29So there's other measures going back to the book way back when the country was
8:33founded that would potentially give you a House allocation of 11 ,000 U .S.
8:37House members. So that would allow you to even go into places like Orlando, Florida
8:41and make it, you know, 75 percent Republican representation based on where the people are
8:46distributed. That's a bit of a pipe dream as far as I'm concerned, given how
8:50much infrastructure it would take to house 11 ,000 House members.
8:54But something's going to have to be done because now we've reached the point where
8:58where where people are doing anything that violates the social contract between Americans to to
9:06get a leg up. And the same thing is true with the Electoral College.
9:10Look, you've got a lot of people that still want to abolish the Electoral College.
9:12Well, I'm telling you, based on the maps that I'm looking at and the trends
9:16that I study, starting now, it's already happened.
9:19The Republican Party is probably the favorite to carry the national popular vote for the
9:25next couple of decades based on what the Latino vote is doing, which the Latino
9:30vote is a big it's a big vote.
9:32You know, you got Cubans and Puerto Ricans and Venezuelans in Florida.
9:35You got Mexicans in Texas.
9:37You have one in Texas.
9:38They make more money than the ones in California do.
9:41Well, you know, but the Latino vote is going to move right.
9:45It's already staying there. And even if you do polls, which I'm not so trusting
9:47in polls, it looks like that coalition shift is actually sticking around.
9:51I think that the Latino vote is going to trend hard Republican.
9:55And then you have the people moving from blue states to red states that are
9:59going to swing the Electoral College.
10:00And even with Republicans likely to win the popular vote more often than not, I
10:05still don't like the popular vote compact.
10:07I don't like moving the nation's elections to a popular vote.
10:10That is because the Electoral College forces candidates to consolidate a coalition.
10:17You'd rather have 48 percent of the popular vote with the Electoral College for well
10:22-balanced. Look at it like a physical fitness plan.
10:25Somebody that can move and hike and has some cardio plus they're strong is better
10:28than somebody who's disproportionate for one or the other.
10:32I think that's a brilliant way.
10:34One of the things you posted the other day was the voter registration by party
10:40shift tracker, which I think this is one of my favorites, the graphs that I've
10:48seen in a long time.
10:50Can you describe what you do here in real time?
10:52time? And why is it pertinent for people to be aware of these shifts?
10:57Yes, it's more of a military intelligence mindset than anything else.
11:01Now, I was not a combat arms officer, but I had to deal with combat
11:05arms officers and soldiers. And most of you guys that are ground pounders would come
11:10back with, here's a general piece of intelligence from the GWAT, Global War on Terror,
11:14is if you patrol the same town, the same village every day for 300 days,
11:23and it's got a level of activity that's normal.
11:26On this day, they might have a bazaar going on.
11:28But then you go there one day where you're expecting to be busy and it's
11:31silent and nobody's on the streets.
11:33It's a pretty good tell that somebody in that town told everybody to stay away
11:36because there's going to be some enemy actions.
11:39So that is better than stupid back channel stuff you might hear and people that
11:44are throwing around theories. So in politics, the theories come in the terms of polls.
11:48And polls are designed to, I mean, some of them can be accurate, but even
11:52people that are ethical have a margin of error.
11:55A 3 % margin of error in Pennsylvania is over 200 ,000 votes.
11:58I don't consider that very accurate.
12:00And if you were calling in artillery on a position, you wouldn't want to be
12:033 % off. So the most accurate way to be precise in presidential elections is
12:10to understand the impact of voter registration by party.
12:1330 states register their voters by party.
12:16What I mean by that is registered Republican, registered Democrat, and maybe some other recognized
12:20parties. 20 states don't recognize parties.
12:24So you're just a registered voter.
12:25That would be Texas. So the 30 states that register by party, they are overwhelmingly
12:31shifting towards the Republican party since Trump's election in November of 2024.
12:36From the 2020 election to 2024, 29 of these 30 states shifted towards the Republicans
12:42by registration. And the rule of thumb is the party that makes the gains in
12:46registration will benefit in the next presidential election.
12:49So they may win the state by more, lose it by less, or flip the
12:52state. So Colorado, the only state that went left from 2020, and it was by
12:571 20th of a percentage point.
12:59But it ran right in the results by two points, because they laid off the
13:03gas a little bit on the ballot harvesting.
13:05So you have a very strong correlation to the direction of voter registration to the
13:10next presidential margin. So in the long run, what that means is Florida is becoming
13:15what Texas used to be.
13:16Florida is going to be 15 points or more Republican.
13:19You have other states that are moving towards the Republican party like Pennsylvania, which depending
13:24on what the counties look like, then I suggest that the Trump blue collar coalition
13:28is actually holding together, despite what you see in the crazies on the ex -commons.
13:34So 28 out of 30 states are more Republican or less Democrat than they were
13:41at the time of the 2024 election.
13:44Wow. So what that means is that the Democrats are definitely sucking wind.
13:49They're losing membership, but it may not be enough to hold the fort in the
13:53midterms, because midterms have their own unique dynamics going back to 1934.
13:57And there were always strong headwinds against the president's party.
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15:49We'll get some good footage and maybe a couple interviews.
15:52All right. Oh, yeah. Yeah, for sure.
15:55Let's let's let's talk a little bit about that.
15:57But before I do, I just want you to I saw you give you posted
16:01a short video of a speech you did recently and you talked about the dysfunction
16:07of elections. Could you could you just share that commentary?
16:11Because when you said that, I was like, this is the most perfect description of
16:15elections I've heard. So share that with my audience.
16:19They'll get a kick out of it.
16:20It's poor. art art part science you know the the fact is you you have
16:24to be able to persuade people in the information war and and i i get
16:28a i get particularly frustrated with people who think that everybody's a performing artist or
16:33everything's a show or every everything's an op right everything's an or every or every
16:38book you write is a grift it's like look i make three dollars and 84
16:41cents when somebody buys a copy of the book um i uh so so the
16:46point is i mean it took six six months of my life to get that
16:49thing to market so the uh the point is we've we've yielded so much of
16:54the information space and all the institutions to people that hate this country we've yielded
16:59academia we've yielded the press we've yielded literature we've yielded music so taking some of
17:05that back requires a little bit of pizzazz and you need to be able to
17:08get people's attention the same thing's true in a military operation soldiers want to listen
17:12to a commander who's got his crap together and looks imposing in that uniform so
17:15um i came up with that over three years ago the the comment of electile
17:21dysfunction and it's been said in little snippets here and there nobody's really command commanded
17:27that term like i have but it's a it's electile dysfunction of course everybody reads
17:32it for the first time online it's like they're reading it again to see if
17:34they actually read that right but um i wound up deciding that the the electile
17:39dysfunction consists of four major defining symptoms number one is when you have difficulty maintaining
17:46an election when you have an election that lasts for longer than four days you
17:51have a sudden severe and noticeable loss of interest in voting and in the worst
17:55cases premature inauguration so that's that's the the summation of that now recently somebody tipped
18:01me off that there should be another point added in the middle of that and
18:04that would be when the government does soft on corruption so um you know maybe
18:08maybe a a handful of people out of a hundred might be taken aback by
18:13the comment but those are the same people that were upset when trump came on
18:16the stage 10 years ago because this isn't who we are and my principles and
18:20stuff like that well my principles as a military mind are to feed the enemy
18:24at all costs uh you know i i think it's hilarious i think you gotta
18:29point you know you gotta have some fun with just how absolutely astonishingly corrupt this
18:37stuff has gotten um you know and and and the more you dig in i
18:41remember i spent i don't even know how much time was sean smith out of
18:45colorado about you know people on the municipal uh each municipal phase or counties who
18:53knew stuff was being done illegally and just and his whole thing was like how
18:59what are they going to arrest themselves for doing this stuff they're not and and
19:03like you said that rot has infected pretty much every level from you know boca
19:09raton all the way up to federal elections and how and how they're run i
19:13mean damn with the democratic party not even having someone go through a primary the
19:17last two cycles is pretty remarkable so um all right let's pivot a little bit
19:22let you you brought up the um the midterms how important is the save act
19:28getting that passed and do you think it will get passed before the midterms i
19:34don't think the save act is going to get passed by this congress the now
19:37the house did their job which is impressive given their small majority and a number
19:41of people in the house that have been nothing but um anchors around the administration
19:45so um but the senate of course is is playing procedural games on on stuff
19:51that they've decided is what we're going to be like 60 votes to pass this
19:54but 50 to pass that lisa murkowski people like that john curtis mitch mcconnell that
19:59want to play games tom tillis that's another thing that is important to note is
20:03that senators that are on their terminal run are very dangerous so like john the
20:08biggest strike against john cornyn in texas isn't just his voting record it is the
20:12fact that he's definitely going to be running for his last term i would assume
20:15um be in his mid 80s by the time that term went in should he
20:18win and he's already shown who he is he'd probably be on a middle finger
20:23tour against the republican party on the way out representing one of the most vital
20:27if not the most vital republican states texas so um the save act of course
20:32is is a good is a good solution it addresses a lot of current and
20:36future problems it will prevent people from being able to uh register non -citizens it'll
20:42gut automatic voter registration because you'll now have to show proof of citizenship in person
20:46it will also gut online voter registration and any voter registration drives which will hurt
20:51us a little bit because we we also use voter registration drives to register people
20:56uh but it will address issues moving forward in time we we need to address
21:01issues that are existing and have taken place over decades like the bad voter registrations
21:05that have been on the rolls for forever i mean you've got people that that
21:09were born in the 1800s still on rolls and you have you have people that
21:12are under multiple names especially women maiden name married name they've been divorced they've got
21:17another name on there and in universal mail -in voting states or counties that have
21:21automatic mail lists all these ballots go out like a shotgun blast you don't have
21:25to request them and that's what desantis did in florida to control that was he
21:29required people to request their ballot if they want to vote by mail and verify
21:32their address so very simple fix but the save act is important i don't expect
21:36it to get passed i think that john thune has already made that very clear
21:39that it's not going to happen and and that's a very unfortunate thing because it
21:44has three to one support nationally and The one that the three, the one, the
21:5025 percent that oppose the save actor are ideological diehards that know what it'll do
21:56to the Democrat registration scams.
21:58But I don't think it'll pass.
21:59So I don't think it's a question of whether it'll impact the midterms or not.
22:03Wow. That's disheartening. Yeah, I once I saw the Thune's commentary and then just the
22:11the active working against it by, you know, those those old school rhino Republican centers
22:17is just ridiculous. Texas is also an interesting one.
22:20I think we're going to see shenanigans in Texas against the Republican Party primary.
22:25I just I just I don't I just think that they they want to keep
22:29people in the system and they can flip it either side if they want.
22:33So, you know, anyway, it may be it may be hard to pull off.
22:37You know, Paxton ran over George P.
22:40Bush in the last run for attorney general back in 2022.
22:44So Paxton's got strong grassroots support.
22:47My concern with the Paxton campaign is that Cornyn spent 60 million going after Paxton
22:54and damaged him enough that he underran his polls by six and a half to
22:5910 points and even lost some rural counties to Cornyn.
23:01Now, Wesley Hunt helped split the ticket there.
23:05I don't think that Cornyn can beat Paxton in the primary.
23:08And I hope you're right in these local races.
23:11It's happened in Texas because they have open primaries.
23:13They're one of the states that don't register by party.
23:15And Dade Phelan survived in 2024, the former House Speaker in Texas, because in Beaumont,
23:21he got every last Democrat they could find to get in there and vote in
23:24the primary. And he won by an eyelash.
23:26I don't think they'll be able to do that statewide.
23:29I don't know if Trump is going to endorse the race or not.
23:32But I also don't think that Paxton will lose the general election.
23:35People keep on saying this.
23:36It's a Democrat. It's a fantasy is what it is.
23:40I suppose one of these days they'll fluke up and win something.
23:44But the point is, you know, Texas is 189 and 0 for the Republican Party
23:51in statewide elections since 1996.
23:52So any intelligence officer that saw 189 consecutive days of activity being the same, I'm
23:58going to forecast the same on 190 and be willing to be wrong.
24:02Good point. Thank you for establishing that consistency of voting.
24:07I just I think there's such a I mean, I watched all the entire impeachment
24:11trial against Paxton. And that that that was one of the most outlandish things I've
24:17ever seen. So I really find it fascinating.
24:20It'll be interesting to see if who's Trump is going to support on that one.
24:23All right. So how much of the mid what do you I mean, I know
24:29everybody hates having to do predictions, but how does it feel right now for you
24:34with the midterms? How how is the Republican Party in your mind in those strategic
24:39areas? Because I think what a lot of people don't understand is that there are
24:44only just a few areas that are really in play.
24:47And could you just describe that to everybody and and give your opinion on?
24:51Yes. So we have 435 House seats and I'm first going to look at history
24:56like I always do. History is a great guide.
24:59I can take this to baseball analysis if you want, you know, if I'm a
25:02hitter and I'm watching a pitcher and he and he throws 12 straight fastballs in
25:08the middle of the game, then I'm assuming something either that curveball is is causing
25:13some sort of a blister where he isn't comfortable throwing it or he can't throw
25:17that curveball where he wants it.
25:18So that limits him and he's now he's throwing fastballs and I'm going to go
25:21up to the plate and I'm seeing all these fastballs.
25:24I am going to sell out that he's going to come at me with fastballs.
25:26And if he comes at me with change ups and curveballs and gets me out,
25:30I'm going to tip my hat.
25:31All right. But you'd be a fool to just guess.
25:33And the same thing is true with with history.
25:37We have 92 years of history going back to FDR's first midterm in 1934 after
25:41the politics realigned to the New Deal.
25:4420 out of 23 midterms, the president's party has lost seats in the House.
25:48That's 87 percent of the time.
25:50So if you are gearing your math toward it's a red wave, that's a stupid
25:57judgment. I mean, maybe maybe it will some for some reason be a red wave
26:01in the next seven months, something will happen that makes it a red wave.
26:04But I wouldn't put money on that.
26:06And I would not advise the commander that that's what's going to happen.
26:09So what I would advise the commander is that 20 of 23 times since 1934,
26:14your party loses seats. So if you're going to affect the best possible outcome, which
26:19is the Republicans maintain the House, you don't have a lot of slack for that.
26:24The average loss of seats is 27 since 1934 for the president's party.
26:29The Republican Party can only lose two seats as elected 2024 and hold the House
26:33by the one seat majority.
26:35So we don't have any ground to give away in the Republican Party.
26:39What that means is if you're going to win, it's like the Top Gun thing.
26:43If you're going to get this objective done, miracle number one and miracle number two,
26:47it has to be done exactly like this or you're going to fail the mission.
26:50So if we go spend money and campaign for 435 House seats that I can
26:54tell you based on the left lean of the 2026 midterms aren't going to be
26:58won, then we're going to lose.
27:00And then you have the Virginia issue.
27:02The Virginia issue, unless counteracted by Florida, makes this an almost certainty the Democrats should
27:07win the House. It's probably with a small majority.
27:09If Virginia, for some reason, gets repelled by the court and Florida redistricts, then the
27:14odds increase for the GOP to hold.
27:15The Virginia issue is a big deal.
27:16Either way, I don't think the winner of the House is going to have a
27:19large majority. I would predict 220 to 229 for the winner of the House.
27:24I would say it's probably the Democrats right now, pending the Virginia maps.
27:27If the Virginia maps are struck down, I'd favor the Democrats 75 -25 because of
27:32the rigging of elections, the slant of midterms.
27:35But the good news is the Senate map is very hard for the Democrats.
27:39They're going to have to really pull an inside straight and win everything on the
27:42map to flip the Senate with the narrowest of majorities.
27:44And I don't think that's going to happen.
27:45Well, that's good to hear.
27:47One of the things you just talked about is the red wave.
27:50I heard recently some people that within the TPUSA, obviously, everybody's going to be really
27:57focused on their get out the vote effort on these college campus.
28:01You talked about Pennsylvania earlier.
28:03I think, you know, they're at Charlie Kirk's efforts at Penn State University was a
28:07massive reason why Trump did so well in 24 in Pennsylvania.
28:12You know, they they're calling it the red wall.
28:15Uh, uh, what do you think?
28:18I saw you've had some back and forth about TPUSA and everybody's kind of attacking
28:23you bizarrely because I don't think you said anything inflammatory.
28:26What do you think they should be doing right now to, uh, help re -engage
28:31their voters who might be a little bit distracted by some of the other, uh,
28:36um, kind of sensational, uh, uh, storylines that are being thrown at, at, at that
28:42organization. So, um, I, I have a political mind.
28:46I, uh, I, I recognize people's frustration with politics and, and seeming like so many
28:51people are like, well, political, this political, that with nothing ever changing.
28:55But, you know, like we told, talked about before the show, there's only two ways
28:59to fix our country. One of them is the big ugly that nobody should promote.
29:02All right. And the other one is, uh, is fixing the political system.
29:06Um, so with that said, I consider TPUSA a vital organization for the conservative cause.
29:12Um, it's just an organization.
29:13It's like a bus, you know, you, you, uh, it can be good or bad
29:17depending on who's steering it, what the direction of it is.
29:19It's neither inherently one or the other.
29:22So you have a, I did have a head -butting contest with one of their
29:25influencers, R .C. Maxwell this week.
29:28And in the, the, I called it the irresistible force versus the immovable object.
29:32So I have played the game.
29:35Um, I, I played the game in 2024 and we're going to play the mail
29:38-in ballot game. And if we're going to play it, I'm going to figure out
29:40the ballot counts, not the vote counts, how many ballots are needed to win a
29:44mail -in election. And I call the election a hundred percent in all 56 races,
29:47but that doesn't mean that I think it's a good thing.
29:51And neither does president Trump.
29:52President Trump played the game in 2024 and now he's back on mail -in ballots
29:56are illegal. Mail -in ballots are ruled out and banned almost everywhere.
30:00You can find them throughout the fricking world.
30:0134 out of 47 countries in Europe, Mexico, Israel, Russia, Japan, all these countries ban
30:07mail -in voting because it is a massive vector.
30:10The biggest vector of, of election, electile dysfunction that you're going to find anywhere.
30:15So, you know, I think that we had to figure out a way to eventually
30:19move away from Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown.
30:23Every time we have a race like Virginia to decrying it for the injustice that
30:27it actually is. It is disenfranchising American voices.
30:30It has been proven to be fraudulent everywhere.
30:32It can be found, including in this country and including by Joe Biden's FBI in
30:37Democrat primaries. They just don't want to talk about, but I wrote about in the
30:40book. Yeah. All right. Talk to us about that book, because I really want people,
30:45I think just from the little bit of what the reviews I was reading, people
30:51are really getting excited about it.
30:52Tell us about the book.
30:53What was your mission? Tell us about your 10 -point blueprint, emphasizing, same day, in
30:58-election person, voting without paper ballots, stricter voter idea.
31:02Just go through it, first, why you wanted to write it, and then two, what
31:06you hope people take away from it.
31:08Well, funny thing is, I didn't want to write it.
31:11I was shoulder tapped to write it.
31:13I've always thought about writing a book because I like to write.
31:16I have my dad's gift for writing, and my sub stack is a hit.
31:19It's one of the best -selling sub stacks in U .S.
31:22politics, but of course, I use it to talk about current events and try to
31:26give actionable information, and people have always asked me if I wanted to write a
31:29book, and I did the humble brag thing.
31:32The chapter isn't closed yet for me to write a book anyway, and then one
31:36day, Larry Schweikert, the historian, he's the author of The Patriot's History of the United
31:40States, which is a must -own if you're running a homeschool, and Larry and I
31:45did 2024 election coverage, and we both agree with the voter registration models for forecasting,
31:50and he was telling the publisher, Post Hill Press, about our forecasting and how good
31:54the Republican Party registration numbers were after Trump was elected, and the publisher said, does
31:59he have a book in him?
32:00Talk about me, and Larry relayed that to me.
32:02I got in touch with them, and they said, okay, well, we're going to offer
32:05you a book arrangement. There's no advance.
32:07You got 90 days to turn over a manuscript, 50 ,000 to 70 ,000 words.
32:11I wound up at 70 ,000, and that's when I started.
32:14This was about two weeks before Charlie Kirk was shot, so that was August of
32:192025, and I put together a story, which was a challenge.
32:22Is there anybody that wants to write a book?
32:25If I go on Telegram, I go on any of these true socials, people know
32:29who Captain Seth Kessiel is, but you go swim out into the big ocean out
32:33there, and you wind up on a Fox News or a mainstream show, and people
32:38are like, well, who's that guy?
32:39Who's that? It kind of reminds me of pro wrestling.
32:43were these indie promotions back in the day.
32:45It'd be like, everybody knew who this dude was, but then he goes on Monday
32:47Night Raw. It's like, whoa, who's this guy?
32:49And so I wound up on a number of mainstream shows in 2024 predicting elections
32:56with my new models. So I had the challenge of introducing myself and my story
33:01and alternating that with the actual nuts and bolts of the election equation.
33:08So it was a bit like a movie, flash forward, flashback, putting in all kinds
33:12of informative stuff, full of sources.
33:15The media won't even write about this book because I have so many sources in
33:18this book. But that was a challenge.
33:20I didn't want it to be all me, me, me, me, me.
33:22And I didn't want it to all be just dry election stats that a niche
33:25audience would consume. And that is why I had Newt Gingrich write the foreword.
33:31Newt was one of those voices that's been around a long time in conservative politics
33:35who has really supported my work.
33:37Like he listens to me.
33:39He asks me questions about stuff and feeds it all the way up to the
33:42chain to the president. This is why the president posts about me for stuff that
33:45Newt has told him. And some people in the grassroots don't like the fact that
33:49you consult the old guard Republican Party.
33:51But if I can't get in the door, then what impact am I going to
33:55make? And this is the nuance of this is like, I don't share every opinion
33:58that Speaker Gingrich has. I support Ken Paxton.
34:02He just endorsed John Cornyn.
34:03But that's not why I asked him to write the foreword.
34:06And he did great justice to the election integrity cause.
34:10There was no mincing of words.
34:11There was no old school, let's move on from the election issues.
34:15He's been an aggressive voice against election corruption for a long time.
34:18So the book has done well.
34:20I haven't seen sales numbers in a couple of weeks, but the last I knew,
34:22it was over 8 ,000 units sold in print, ebook, and audio, which I did
34:26the audio. Congratulations. So does Speaker Gingrich.
34:29So we're probably pushing 9 ,000 or 10 ,000 copies, I would assume, which it's
34:33slowed down since the initial launch, which is normal for books, but I'm still hoping
34:37that the president puts it out there.
34:39That's awesome, Seth. I'm really happy for you, man.
34:43You know, obviously just talking to you, I mean, your understanding of probably, I guess
34:52people are becoming more and more, that's an interesting question.
34:55I was going to say, with such a complex issue, you know, your ability to
35:04deconstruct information and deliver it is really effective, right?
35:09But are you finding that more and more when you go and speak at audiences
35:13or you're doing other shows, are you finding more and more people are becoming more
35:19educated as to the challenges on a more specific scale, like, you know, voter rolls,
35:29mail -in balloting, the legality of the code and the statutes that are in these
35:36different counties or cities? It depends on the audience.
35:39I go back constantly to my past in the book, and I have an extensive
35:46past in baseball. Now, I look like a pitcher.
35:49I'm not one, but I love the game.
35:52And, you know, that was my first foray into analytics was my dad and I
35:56enjoying baseball and enjoying all the stats, and I could flip over a baseball card
35:59and read a hitter's trend line.
36:01I could tell the story of his career based on how his numbers moved.
36:04And I went to Ole Miss when we were an ascending baseball power, and they're
36:09really good now. Perennial top 10 program when I was there, and I helped ramp
36:14up the analytics program at Ole Miss 10 years before it was a big deal
36:18in college analytics. College baseball used to be in the Stone Age even 20 years
36:21ago. But we had a shortstop at Ole Miss a couple of years.
36:25I was there named Zach Cozart, and Cozart had a almost decade -long major league
36:30career, and he was an all -star at one point, shortstop for the Reds.
36:34And Cozart was a player that had very strong instincts.
36:38He was a graceful fielder, pretty big body for a shortstop.
36:42You know, he was a pretty good hitter.
36:44He wasn't really a batting average guy, but he put some pop out there and
36:47played good defense. And I wrote a paper for Zach one time, pro bono, and
36:52I passed it to him through a friend.
36:54And, you know, went through all of his strengths, weaknesses, what kind of pitches.
36:57And it was actions -based, like, here's how I think you can improve your metrics.
37:01And the response came back, full head, empty bat.
37:06Right? And Zach's my friend.
37:07I just saw him a couple weeks ago at Ole Miss at our 20 -year
37:10SEC Championship reunion. But, you know, a lot of people do the same thing in
37:15the political world where we have more access to information than any people who have
37:21ever lived with these superpower computers in our pockets that far surpassed anything we had
37:26when we, you know, when we were waging wars in the 20th century.
37:31But we have less discernment than any group of people to ever exist.
37:35So we have all this information.
37:37It's so much information. Nobody can even figure out how to do anything with it.
37:40So one interesting story from my past before I was dragged into the election issue
37:44was I was laid off.
37:46I got laid off twice in the span of two years out of my control.
37:49One time from an oil bus and another time from a merger failure.
37:52And while I was out of work the second time, I was looking around for
37:57a job commensurate with my education, which was an MBA at the time in a
38:01project management professional and what I wanted for salary.
38:04And I wound up interviewing at a think tank, not one of the big ones,
38:07but a small Houston -based business problem is all we think tank.
38:11And they put me through a test, just a skills test, mathematics, writing, and I
38:16did good here, good there, average there, above average here.
38:20And then there was one specific test where I blew the doors down and had
38:23one of the highest scores they'd ever seen.
38:24And it was a categorization test and it was proprietary to that company.
38:28And it gave me about 50 vocabulary words, random words, tomato, pencil, door, and told
38:35me that I could create four buckets and name whatever I want.
38:39And you've got to put all these words in one of those buckets.
38:41So the ability to break down information is exactly what I'm known for because we
38:46have 50 states and inside those states, 3 ,143 counties and independent cities.
38:51And God knows how many precincts.
38:54I don't even know that number.
38:55And of course they constantly change, but to present something actionable for a battle space
39:02that large requires a focus on strategic things.
39:06I have to have people at the precinct level that understand their local stuff.
39:13I learn stuff every time I speak somewhere.
39:15Well, that's not how we do it here.
39:16Well, that's good to know.
39:17I don't know that and I can't know that.
39:19And I think a good leader empowers, quote, supportants.
39:23I'm not saying they're my supportants, but just looking down to the county level empowers
39:28people to get this stuff done at the local level.
39:31With the understanding that everywhere I look, voter registration is the foundation of the corruption,
39:36the more mail -in balloting you have, the worse you're in and more unpredictable and
39:40shocking your election returns are.
39:43And if you start there, you can start to bring it together.
39:45But I think we actually drown in a sea of so much access to information.
39:49I think we have now reached a point where the smartphone in your pocket with
39:54everything right available to you at your fingertips is counterproductive.
39:59All right. Last question, Seth.
40:03Obviously, there's some type of a split going on in the Republican Party, however you
40:10want to describe it. Penitions versus America.
40:15I don't know, whatever you want.
40:16It's all just crazy to me.
40:18But what advice would you give to not only the president moving into the midterms
40:23in terms of getting out there on the campaign trail as well as the Republican
40:28National Committee? Well, number one is to focus.
40:33We have 39 seats pending Virginia.
40:36That's going to change my math a bit.
40:38But we right now have what I believe to be 39 seats that I can
40:42see being won by either party.
40:44And in that 39, I think that you've got 20 of them that I can
40:47lean one way or the other, where I think that I can tell you who's
40:51going to win the seat, but it's not for sure.
40:53And then there's 19 toss them up.
40:55And whoever spends the most money, hits the most voters is going to tilt that
40:58race. So 39 races out of 435.
41:04Now, even if I'm off by two or three, you have more than 90 %
41:08of the races appear to be decided already.
41:11So that should allow you to target effectively and put your money where it matters.
41:17And the same thing can be said with the Senate.
41:19There's five key races I see.
41:21And then there's a few that if you wind up with the Dems are really
41:24picking up momentum in September, October, then maybe we need to look at these seats
41:28or the other way around.
41:29If the Republicans are stronger in September, October, we can stop worrying about this seat
41:33and maybe we can win this one.
41:35So it's going to be decided narrowly.
41:37But what I would tell the president would be exactly what I'm passing up the
41:41chain is not only the laser focus, I think he should buy the midterms, to
41:46be honest with you. And by buy it, I don't mean illegally.
41:50I mean, psychologically and within the confines, the narrowest confines possible.
41:55Let's get these tariff rebate checks going for the 250th anniversary.
42:00Every American citizen gets a check for X amount.
42:03You don't think we could do it.
42:04Well, we did it during COVID for babies, for children, got a $600 stimulus check.
42:09So if we just limit it to adult citizens, okay, well, fine, here's your tariff
42:14rebate check since you've been paying all these taxes.
42:16And then suggest very strongly that if things are still going well for us, wink,
42:21wink, the right people are in power without saying it, we're going to have more
42:24of that come nine months from now.
42:27So that could move some of that muddy middle in the electorate.
42:30Um, then I think he's got some stuff up his sleeve.
42:33I think that Trump also realizes there's years where he needs to put the pedal
42:36to the metal. And then there's months within years that, um, you need to suck
42:41up your lumps and do the unpopular things and let your poll numbers go down
42:44a bit. And then at the right time, it's the same thing in baseball.
42:48You get teams that are excellent all year long, and then they sort of get
42:51in a slump and they wind up out of their seasons over.
42:53And then you have teams like my Ole Miss champions in 2022 national champs that
42:59had no business being in the conversation 80 % of the way through the season
43:02and got red hot. Nobody could stop them when they want it all.
43:05So it's about how you peak at the end.
43:07And if they finish strong, then perhaps they can surprise.
43:11The Democrat party registration numbers are in the, in the toilet.
43:15All right. And that, that has pushed a number of States into safe Republican territory
43:19in a Democrat midterm year.
43:20The last Democrat midterm year there was in 2018, Florida was still a state that
43:25was in play and Ron DeSantis barely won.
43:27Um, but it had begun to move and now it's out of play for the
43:30Dems. So enough time for the voter registration to cook, we'll cook the Democrats.
43:36I just don't think it's cooked them in 2026.
43:38I just don't think it's cooked them in 2026.
43:38I just don't think it's cooked them in 2026.
43:39Awesome. All right, Seth, how can people follow you?
43:43Where can they buy the book?
43:44And what do you got coming up next?
43:46Well, I mean, if you see me at the grocery store, I'm easy to spot.
43:49Just get behind me and walk where I walk.
43:50You can follow me like that.
43:52But if you don't want to be a stalker, the best way to do that
43:55is online at captaink .us.
43:58That is my sub stack.
43:59That's my primary means of supporting my operation.
44:01I'm on X again at Real S Keshul.
44:04That's a matter of necessity, not necessarily what I like or want.
44:07Same handle at True Social.
44:10And anyway, the book, The American War on Election Corruption is the best deal to
44:14find on Amazon in print, ebook, or audio.
44:18And what do you got coming up next?
44:20What's your next travel week look like?
44:22Where are you going to be out there?
44:23I'm hitting an East Coast tour starting on the 1st of May, which is next
44:30Friday. And that will be in the Villages, Florida.
44:35Then Saturday, the 2nd in Gulf Breeze near Pensacola, Florida.
44:40The Sunday, the 3rd in Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
44:42Monday, the 4th in Forsyth County, Georgia.
44:45Monday, the 5th in Carteret County, North Carolina.
44:49The, did I say Monday, the 5th?
44:51That would be wrong. Or so May the 6th in Somerset County, New Jersey.
44:57May 7th and 8th in the Pittsburgh area.
44:59So I'll have these on CaptainK .us for everybody to see.
45:02Awesome. Everybody go check that out.
45:04Subscribe to a subsec and go purchase that book.
45:07Captain, I can't thank you enough.
45:09Your insight is exceptional. And I think you educated my audience to a pretty substantial
45:15degree today. Thank you, sir.
45:17You bet. Thank you so much.
45:18We'll see you next time.
45:21We'll see you next time.
45:22Bye -bye. Bye -bye. Bye -bye.
45:24Bye -bye. Bye -bye. Bye -bye.
45:26Bye -bye. Bye -bye.