The Truth with Lisa Boothe: How Close Is Iran to a Nuclear Weapon? Breaking Down Trump’s Strategy & What Comes Next
2/26/202623 mincomplete
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0:33T's and C's apply. ABC Wednesdays.
0:36The Emmy -winning comedy Scrubs is all new.
0:39This is a whole new chapter for me.
0:40No more sad sack. That's what I'm talking about.
0:43I want both of our sacks to be fun.
0:45You two idiots are perfect for each other.
0:47From executive producers of Ted Lasso and Shrinking.
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0:55Nachos! Feels like there's more applause for the nachos than my speech.
0:58The new season of Scrubs.
1:00Wednesdays, 8, 7 central on ABC and stream on Hulu.
1:05Welcome to The Truth with Lisa Booth, where we get to the heart of the
1:08issues that matter to you.
1:10Today we're talking Iran's nuclear clock.
1:12Is it ticking faster than ever?
1:15I'll talk to Vice Admiral John W.
1:18Miller. He is the ex -commander of the 5th Fleet and Naval Forces Central Command
1:23for a breakdown on all of this.
1:25Iran's breakout timeline. Enrichment versus weaponization.
1:29Intel gaps. What do we actually know?
1:32Is President Trump working on deterrence or delay?
1:35And what happens if and when talks don't work out?
1:39What's next after that? What will President Trump do?
1:42What a real deal actually means?
1:46So hard truths from a guy who ran the show in the Gulf.
1:50Stay tuned for Vice Admiral John W.
1:52Miller. Well, Vice Admiral, it's great to have you on the show.
2:01We've known each other for a while.
2:03As I've noted before when I've had you on, you are one of my best
2:06friend's dad. So thanks for making the time, sir.
2:09Thanks for having me, Lisa.
2:10It's great to be with you.
2:11You also happen to be an expert on Iran.
2:14So that's helpful. So I wanted to ask you, sir, how close, we've heard sort
2:18of different accounts for how close Iran is to a nuclear weapon.
2:23What is the real breakout timeline from your perspective?
2:26Well, a little bit of it depends on how we define breakout.
2:31And so here's some things that we know.
2:34We know they had about 600 kilograms of 60 % enriched material.
2:44And once you enrich uranium past about 5%, there is no other use for it
2:52other than to use it in a weapons program and as a nuclear weapon.
2:57And the way you enrich uranium, if you get to 60 % purity, it's just
3:02a few short steps to get to the 90 or so percent that you need
3:06for a weapon. So we know that they have material that's close.
3:10Now, we're not entirely sure what happened to that material in the June midnight hammer
3:15attacks. It is probably safely tucked away underneath a large pile of rubble somewhere where
3:22they can't get at it, but that's not for sure.
3:25Now, what I have pretty good confidence in is that they don't have an ability
3:29to do that last bit of enrichment that takes it from 60 % to 90
3:34% weapons grade to put into a bomb.
3:37And so it's, I think, important for us to be concerned about their ability to,
3:44under rather austere circumstances, produce some kind of a nuclear weapon in a relatively short
3:50period of time and then find a way to deliver that.
3:53And this would not be a nuclear weapon in terms of how we think of
3:58them when you see these explosions from the tests that we did in the past.
4:01It would be an imperfect weapon, but it would be a large, it could have
4:05a large yield and of course it would have the radiation that's associated with it.
4:09So it's really difficult to say how close they are, but they still have, you
4:14know, some sort of rogue ability perhaps to finish the enrichment and put something together,
4:19which is why it's important to keep after their program and to get some clarity
4:25and surety on what they have, where it's at, how do we get it out
4:29of the country? You know, how effective, you know, obviously when we dropped the bunker
4:33busting bombs not too long ago, how effective was that?
4:37Was it effective if we're worried that they're this close?
4:40I think it was a very effective strike and it accomplished the things that we
4:45set out to accomplish in that, you know, the chairman laid out was within the
4:51realm of possibility in terms of our capabilities.
4:54So I think it was very successful in that regard.
4:55So they're not in these secret underground facilities any longer enriching uranium and getting themselves
5:04closer and closer to a point where they have highly enriched uranium that's ready for
5:09a nuclear bomb. But there is some material that they did have on hand and
5:14I think that's where really our efforts, our focus is on finding that.
5:19And it may be that it's, you know, underground.
5:22in Fordow or some other place and won't ever see the light of day again
5:28if we don't do anything at all.
5:30But we don't know that for certain.
5:31And so it would be nice to have better visibility into that.
5:35But in terms of what they had as an enrichment program before the strike and
5:40what they have today, it was a completely effective strike.
5:45Are they closer or further away today than before the United States pulled out of
5:50the JCPOA? Well, I think they're further away because they've lost the infrastructure that they
5:58would use to be able to finish the enrichment and to finally turn that into
6:02a weapon. At the same time, since we don't know exactly where this material is
6:07at, we don't know if they've got an ability someplace that we're not aware of
6:12where they can finish the enrichment.
6:15We just don't know. And we don't know if they have access to the material
6:20or if it's part of the rubble that's left over from the strike.
6:24And so it's the uncertainty more than anything else.
6:28The odds are good that we've set the program back by much more than just
6:33a year. But we don't know for certain.
6:36And I think with something like this, as much certainty as we can have, it
6:40would be useful to have it.
6:42And how do we get that certainty?
6:44Well, that comes with the right deal in terms of the nuclear weapons program in
6:50Iran, which means they've got to agree to give up this material and that they
6:54have, and they've got to be able to account for it.
6:57They've got to be able to allow whatever is negotiated in the treaty in terms
7:02of verification to take place.
7:04And verification, if you remember back from JCPOA, was a real issue, not only did
7:10we not have good verification standards built into the agreement, the Iranians were very reluctant
7:16to actually allow the access and verification that they had agreed to.
7:22And so we're going to have to have a strong verification protocol, and the Iranians
7:27are going to have to follow that.
7:28So those are the kind of things that we ought to be looking for in
7:31an agreement where they agree to turn over the material.
7:34They're not going to stockpile material.
7:36They agree to suspend enrichment.
7:38They're not going to enrich further material.
7:40And they agree to a verification protocol that we find acceptable.
7:45You know, but Iran is publicly stating that it will not give up uranium enrichment.
7:50President Trump said that's a non -negotiable.
7:53I mean, those are two pretty hard lines.
7:55So is Iran just toying with us?
7:57Are they just buying time in these negotiations?
8:00Is it worth negotiating right now?
8:02How do you see it when you've got these two very hard lines that are
8:05polar opposites? I see it a little bit maybe more simply and clearly than I
8:10did in the past. If you go back to before Midnight Hammer, we were at
8:15a similar crossroad in terms of the negotiations where the Iranians said, this is as
8:20far as we're going to go.
8:21We're going to go no further.
8:23That wasn't acceptable to the United States.
8:25And the response was Operation Midnight Hammer.
8:28So I think the Iranians who would negotiate the nuclear deal for the next 20
8:33years, given the opportunity, I think they have to have a better understanding that they
8:38are once again on the timeline.
8:39And when the timeline has expired in the mind of the president, the response is
8:45not going to be a different kind of negotiating tactic.
8:49The response is not going to be a plea to the European Union to jump
8:55in and to help. It's not going to be an outreach to the Chinese and
8:58the Russians to see what they can do.
9:00The outreach is, the result of it is going to be another attack by the
9:04United States on their nuclear weapons program or the remnants of their nuclear weapons program,
9:09so that we can be more sure that they can't reconstitute something out of the
9:16rubble that currently exists. Iran is also facing a lot of internal pressure.
9:21We've seen protests across the nation and calls to topple the regime.
9:27Does that put pressure on the regime to negotiate or does it make the regime
9:33more reckless and more apt to, you know, lash out and behave more incoherently?
9:40That's a great question and it gets to a great point.
9:44And really what we've seen historically over the last almost half century now that the
9:49regime has been in power is when they feel threatened, the more threatened they feel,
9:55the more reckless they become.
9:58And someone once described it that the Iranian response to maximum pressure is maximum resistance.
10:05And that really does sort of define the Iranian approach to doing business.
10:12So they're under a lot of pressure really on every front.
10:16When you look at the global picture, Iran is a country that is entirely without
10:22an ally. They have a very transitory relationship, a transactional relationship with the Russians and
10:30with the Chinese. And other than that, they, and perhaps the North Koreans, other than
10:35that, they have no one they can even turn to that they might be able
10:39to call a friend. They're surrounded virtually by enemies of their own making.
10:47They have a terrible economy.
10:49And otherwise, to me, it's...
10:50part, in large part, the result of decades of very debilitating sanctions.
10:57They've got a water crisis.
10:58You don't hear that talked about much these days, but they've been able to mismanage
11:02the water supply in Iran for the last half century and are at a point
11:07where they may eventually need to evacuate the city of Tehran because they don't have
11:11enough water for the people.
11:13So they have a number of problems.
11:15The response typically to this kind of pressure on the regime has not been to
11:21become more benevolent, not been to go out to the world and say, we could
11:26use some assistance. We'd like to have better trade.
11:30We're willing to negotiate in good faith.
11:32That's just not what they've done.
11:34And they're not doing that today.
11:35And I don't see the regime ever getting to a point where they begin to
11:39behave like a responsible nation in the community of nations.
11:44I remember General Mattis once said, Iran has to decide whether they're going to be
11:48a revolution or a country.
11:50And I still think that that's true today.
11:54He also said, have a plan to kill everyone you meet.
11:56So that's always right. Didn't he say something like that?
12:00He did say something like that, but I've met him and he's a wonderful man
12:03and a great leader. Yeah, but he probably had a plan to kill you.
12:07So it's a little scary going to meetings with him, I guess.
12:13But how do you think the regime sees President Trump?
12:17I think they have a pretty good understanding of what President Trump is like.
12:23And they've had a chance, you know, they got a chance to see him in
12:27his first administration and understand where he was coming from with the Iran problem set
12:35and where he wanted to go.
12:36There was some outreach on the part of the Trump administration, the first one, to
12:40actually get a good deal that we would have been satisfied with and likely the
12:45Iranians would have been satisfied with and they didn't make the deal.
12:48They've seen him in his second administration where if they're not going to make a
12:52deal, then he's going to take action.
12:54So I think they understand that.
12:56But that doesn't necessarily mean like it would for most people.
13:01If you and I were in the position of the regime, I think we'd be
13:04looking at how we can make a deal that keeps the United States from attacking
13:09the nuclear program in Iran again, and maybe some other things in Iran as well.
13:15And how can they reduce some of the pressure on the regime by negotiating with
13:19the administration? We just don't see them doing that.
13:22So I think intellectually, they can understand it.
13:24They just don't seem to be able to get to a point where they're willing
13:27to say, okay, well, we'll negotiate here and we're going to get something, probably not
13:32everything we want, but something going to reduce some of the pressure that's on the
13:35regime and some of the pressure that's on the economy, which would give them a
13:40little bit better footing at home.
13:42Quick break, more on Iran.
13:43If you like what you're hearing, please share on social media or send it to
13:46your family and friends. With no markups or hidden fees, sending pounds across the pond,
14:02spending ray eyes in Rio, or getting paid in dollars for your side gig, you'll
14:06get the mid -market exchange rate on every transaction.
14:09Plus, most transfers arrive in less than 20 seconds.
14:11Join 15 million customers internationally.
14:14Be smart. Get wise. Download the wise app or visit wise .com.
14:18T's and C's apply. ABC Wednesdays.
14:21The Emmy -winning comedy Scrubs is all new.
14:24This is a whole new chapter for me.
14:25No more sad sack. That's what I'm talking about.
14:28I want both of our sacks to be fun.
14:30You two idiots are perfect for each other.
14:32From executive producers of Ted Lasso and Shrinking.
14:34We were all a part of this victory.
14:36Now get those nachos out of the preemie warmer.
14:40Nachos! Feels like there's more applause for the nachos than my speech.
14:43The new season of Scrubs.
14:45Wednesdays, 8, 7 central on ABC and stream on Hulu.
14:50You know, if Iran is unwilling to reach a compromise that the Trump administration deems
14:57worthy and acceptable, what happens next?
15:00Well, there's a number of things that can happen.
15:02And it can be something as simple as a strike that's designed just to put
15:07more pressure on the regime.
15:09So that's a strike that might be relatively limited in scope.
15:12It would focus likely on the nuclear problem set, if you will.
15:16So parts of that that we want to have a little bit more clarity over
15:20the condition of it by ensuring that, you know, it's still difficult to get at
15:26or nearly impossible to get at.
15:28It likely would include their ballistic missile, their missile facilities, their missile production facilities, their
15:33storage facilities. Missiles are really the way that the Iranian regime now can defend itself
15:39from external aggression of any kind, from anyone, because their air defenses have been largely
15:45destroyed and haven't been rebuilt.
15:47They've tried to rebuild their missile production facilities, their launch facilities.
15:52And so there will likely be some targeting into them.
15:56It's likely that some of the regime leadership would be part of a limited strike.
16:02And that doesn't have to be a decapitation strike, although that's a possibility.
16:07It doesn't have to be that.
16:08It's the ability of the IRGC and the Basij forces to command and control their
16:14own forces, which then produces a little bit.
16:18bit of wiggle room for the protesters in Iran if you make it more difficult
16:23for the Iranian government, particularly the IRGC, to operate against its own people and to
16:30kill them, which, as you know, they've been doing in quantity of late.
16:33So those are the kind of things I think you would see as a pressure
16:37strike. And then it could expand to their impact, the Iranians' ability to wage war
16:42of any kind. And it could be strikes that are large enough and persistent enough
16:48that they would lend to the effort to eventually force regime change.
16:54Do any countries come to Iran's defense in that scenario?
16:59I don't think so. If you look at who might come to their defense, you
17:04know, they've got a kindred soul in the North Korean government, but I don't think
17:09that the North Koreans are in any position to come to the defense of Iran.
17:13What kind of excess capability the North Koreans might feel that they have is being
17:18used up today in Ukraine in support of the Russians?
17:21I don't see the Russians being supportive.
17:23They were not at all supportive during the 12 -day war, and I wouldn't expect
17:27them to be supportive of any further effort.
17:29And I certainly wouldn't expect the Chinese to become directly involved.
17:33Well, that's good to hear.
17:34Well, it's interesting, too. I assume, you know, because it was interesting because a lot
17:39of these other Middle Eastern countries were encouraging President Trump to negotiate.
17:43How do you think Israel sees it?
17:45I assume they probably would rather us be dropping more bombs, or do you think
17:50they support negotiation as well?
17:52Well, Israel, like any country, is at the end of the day, the responsibility of
17:58the government is to do what's in the best interest of the country and of
18:01the people. And that's where I think the Israelis have been, and that's where they
18:05are today. They know that the Iranians pose an existential threat to their existence.
18:10The Iranians have been very clear about the fact that they would like to pose
18:14an existential threat to the ability of Israel to continue to exist.
18:20And so I think that they favor the various strike options that are available to
18:25us as much as we think we can possibly do.
18:27I think the Israelis would be in favor of it, supportive of it.
18:30I think it's interesting and important to understand where the Gulf countries are coming from.
18:34And it's not that they wouldn't like to see a different regime in Iran, because
18:40I think they're against the regime.
18:42They understand the regime as a destabilizing factor throughout the region.
18:47And so the activities of their proxies, Hezbollah, Hamas, other Houthis, other proxies in places
18:54like the eastern province of Saudi Arabia, in Bahrain, up in Kuwait, that antagonized the
19:02Shia populations and caused the Shia populations to riot or to plant bombs to create
19:08instability in their own region.
19:09And the countries, so regionally, they're concerned about what Iran does, but they're also concerned
19:16about what in Iran, where the regime is collapsing, actually looks like.
19:21And how much instability that you would find during regime collapse inside of Iran spills
19:28out into the rest of the Gulf.
19:31And so that's to the commerce that's in the Gulf, which is the petroleum products
19:35that come out, as well as the goods and services that come in.
19:39But also, it's the Shia populations that are prevalent in a number of the GCC
19:46countries that stand to be antagonized by a failing regime.
19:52And so I think from a regional stability standpoint, that's the concern the Gulf countries
19:59have. And they have to live with that in a way that the Israelis don't,
20:03which might explain the different approach that each of those entities are looking to make
20:10to the problem. And then before we go, how do you think President Trump has
20:14done so far in navigating Iran?
20:18I'll tell you, I think he's done a very good job, a brilliant job.
20:21I'm very supportive of how he's handled the Iran issue during this term in office.
20:28Where I'm hopeful is that we continue to keep this problem in front of us
20:34and something that we're not going to let just fester and sit over time.
20:41There's opportunity here to come out of the current crisis situation that we're in within
20:48Iran that's a better neighbor regionally and is a better neighbor globally.
20:53The Iranian population has a lot to offer.
20:56They're well -educated. They've got a beautiful culture.
20:58They have enormous resources within the country.
21:02And so the ability for Iran to become a good partner in the region with
21:09the Arab Gulf states and for the rest of the world in terms of the
21:13global economy certainly is there.
21:15And it would be very helpful if we could get to that in the next
21:20year so that we're not, you know, looking at 2028 or 2029 or 2030 and
21:26wondering what we're going to do about Iran as we have for, you know, since
21:311979. Vice Admiral John Miller, thanks for making the time, Fozzie.
21:35I appreciate you. Pleasure. Have a great day, Lisa.
21:38That was Vice Admiral John W.
21:40Miller. Appreciate him for taking the time to come on the show.
21:42Appreciate you guys at home for listening every Tuesday and Thursday.
21:45We'll see you guys at the end of the show.
21:46can listen throughout the week.
21:47I also want to thank John Cassio, my producer, for putting the show together.
21:50Until next time. 15 million customers internationally.
22:18Be smart. Get wise. Download the wise app or visit wise .com.
22:22T's and C's apply. ABC Wednesdays.
22:25The Emmy -winning comedy Scrubs is all new.
22:27This is a whole new chapter for me.
22:29No more sad sack. That's what I'm talking about.
22:31I want both of our sacks to be fun.
22:34You two idiots are perfect for each other.
22:35From executive producers of Ted Lasso and Shrinking.
22:38We were all a part of this victory.
22:40Now get those nachos out of the preemie warmer.
22:44Nachos! Feels like there's more applause for the nachos than my speech.
22:47The new season of Scrubs.
22:49Wednesdays, 8, 7 central on ABC and stream on Hulu.
22:53This is an iHeart podcast.
22:55Guaranteed human.