It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Trump’s Iran Strike: Polling, Politics, and the Real Reasons the U.S. Went to War
3/4/202637 mincomplete
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0:21Welcome back to Numbers Game with Ryan Gradesky.
0:24Thank you guys for being here.
0:25I'm so happy to be with you all.
0:27I took a bit of a longer weekend and pre -recorded my Monday episode on
0:31Thursday thinking nothing big is going to happen, and I'm so glad that ended up
0:36being the case. By the way, this happens all the time when I try to
0:40take a vacation or a break.
0:42Something happens in the world and it blows up, and this is why I have
0:45to stay being the workaholic that I am.
0:48So obviously, the U .S.
0:50went to war with Iran, or it's not a formal declaration of war.
0:54Lack of a better term, it's a war, right?
0:56Trump has called on for regime change, and the bombing campaign has obviously happened.
1:02And I'm really glad, actually, I didn't record on Monday.
1:05I'm glad that we took a little time because there was too much chaos to
1:09really get a firm grasp on the details.
1:12And I think I understand the situation much better now based on reporting and comments
1:18that have come out from politicians and from members of the Trump administration and some
1:22really good journalism. So I'm going to withhold hot takes right now, and I want
1:27to give straight reporting because there is genuine confusion as to why we are bombing
1:32Iran. I don't think that I don't think the administration is on a very good
1:37job communicating it. So I want to really give you just the straight talking points.
1:42The United States has been trying to negotiate with the Iranian regime over their ballistic
1:48missile capabilities for months, using Jared Kushner and Steve Wyckoff as our representatives to absolutely
1:56no avail. Trump was getting very annoyed by the situation that no progress was happening.
2:00And not only was it really not going anywhere, but the Iranians and Gabe Kushner
2:06and Wyckoff a seven page proposal talking about nuclear enrichment.
2:11So they were very much waving in their face that we're not even not only
2:14are you not going to get many concessions out of us, but we're looking at
2:17nuclear proliferation. According to The New York Times, the Americans still wanted the Iranians to
2:22commit to zero enrichment and propose giving him a free nuclear fuel for civil nuclear
2:27program. But the Iranians refused.
2:29A U .S. official said after the talks ended, Mr.
2:32Wyckoff and Mr. Kushner told Mr.
2:35Trump they did not think a deal could be reached.
2:38That was happening for months.
2:40About a month ago, the U .S.
2:42military began repositioning personnel across the Middle East.
2:45And 11 hours before the bombing, President Trump spoke to reporters and said that Iran
2:50should make a deal over the ballistic missile program, saying the U .S.
2:53has been playing with them for 47 years and it's too long.
2:57Now, what also happened behind the scenes was there was personal lobbying going on on
3:01the part of the Israeli government and the Saudi Arabian government pressuring Trump to strike
3:08Iran. According to The Washington Post, American intelligence saw no imminent direct threat to the
3:14American homeland. But foreign intelligence said that Iran could destabilize the region and lead to
3:20a broader war. According to The New York Times, Netanyahu met with President Trump personally
3:25at the White House, lobbying with him for over three hours.
3:29Now, according to The New York Times, few people inside the White House voiced opposition
3:33to the strikes, including Vice President J .D.
3:35Vance, a longstanding critic of endless wars.
3:38According to reports, Vance said that Trump should go big and go fast.
3:44While the White House didn't reach out to Congress, this is a very important detail,
3:48while Congress did not reach out to Congress as a whole, they did reach out
3:52to the Gang of Eight on February 24th.
3:55That includes the Speaker of the House, the Majority Leader of the Senate, the Minority
3:59Leader of both the House and Senate, the Chair of the Permanent Select Committee of
4:03Intelligence, the Ranking Member, that's the top minority member, of the House Intelligence Committee, the
4:08Chair of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, and the Ranking Member of the Senate
4:12Intelligence Committee. So Democrats and Republicans in Congress in high -ranking positions were told ahead
4:17of time about the situation.
4:19At 3 .38 p .m.
4:20on February 27th, military officials received the final to go to commit Operation Epic Fury.
4:26At 1 a .m. on Saturday, Israeli and American forces began bombing Iran, killing Supreme
4:31Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In reaction to the bombing, Iran has had retaliatory strikes across
4:37many of its neighbors, launching more than 1 ,000 drones and missiles into the Gulf
4:42countries and Israel. Iranian allies in Lebanon also launched attacks into Israel.
4:48The U .S. Embassy in Saudi Arabia was one of the biggest targets hit.
4:51Kuwait, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have all been working to intercept Iranian
4:57missiles. At least six American servicemen so far have been killed in the conflict.
5:03Now, that's the flat details.
5:08What has been added in context from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, he had a
5:13press conference a day ago.
5:15His comment is that the United States had to act because they knew Israel was
5:21going to. take action with or without the United States.
5:25And I need you to hear this clip because it has gone viral.
5:29And I need you to remember this clip because I'm going to talk about it
5:32later. It's very important. Go to clip one.
5:35The United States conducted this operation with a fair goal in mind.
5:39I haven't got a chance to see a lot of reporting.
5:42I don't understand what the confusion is.
5:44Let me explain it to you.
5:45And I'll do it once again as clearly as possible.
5:47Perhaps you'll report it that way.
5:49The United States is conducting an operation to eliminate the threat of Iran's short range
5:54ballistic missiles and the threat posed by their Navy, particularly to naval assets.
5:59That is what it is focused on doing right now.
6:01And it's doing quite successfully.
6:02I'll leave it to the Pentagon and the Department of War to discuss the tactics
6:06behind that and the progress that's being made.
6:08That is the clear objective of this mission.
6:10The second question that I've been asked is, why now?
6:13Well, there's two reasons why now.
6:14The first is it was abundantly clear that if Iran came under attack by anyone,
6:19the United States or Israel or anyone, they were going to respond and respond against
6:23the United States. The orders had been delegated down to the field commanders.
6:27It was automatic. And in fact, it bared to be true because in fact, within
6:31an hour of the initial attack on the leadership compound, the missile forces in the
6:38south and in the north, for that matter, had already been activated to launch.
6:41In fact, those had already been pre -positioned.
6:44The third is the assessment that was made that if we stood and waited for
6:48that attack to come first before we hit them, we would suffer much higher casualties.
6:53And so the president made the very wise decision.
6:56We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action.
6:58We knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces.
7:01And we knew that if we didn't preemptively go after them before they launched those
7:05attacks, we would suffer higher casualties and perhaps even higher those killed.
7:10And then we would all be here answering questions about why we knew that.
7:14Now that is a very compelling clip, but so he's laying out three parts, right?
7:19The main part is we knew Iran was building ballistic missiles and we knew that
7:25the ballistic missiles would bring on to a larger war.
7:28We knew that they would, they would use their Navy to block oil transportation, causing
7:32spikes in oil. And that with Israel choosing to launch before they could build these
7:37underground ballistic missiles that we could not get a hold of, we decided to strike
7:43them because they would have struck us after Israel tried to stop this production.
7:48He also said he knew that when Israel attacked, I want you to, this is
7:52the very important part that the entire Democratic Party, critics of Trump's foreign policy and
7:59critics of the war in general have really leeched onto.
8:03The part, and I'm going to play clip two in one second, the part where
8:07he says if the U .S.
8:09would have waited to attack, who would have waited, Israel would have attacked them and
8:14we would have lost more troops.
8:15Play clip two. There absolutely was an imminent threat and the imminent threat was that
8:19we knew that if Iran was attacked and we believe they would be attacked, that
8:24they would immediately come after us.
8:25And we were not going to sit, sit there and absorb a blow before we
8:29responded because the department of war assessed that if we did that, if we waited
8:33for them to hit us first after they were attacked and by someone else, Israel
8:36attacked them, they hit us first and we waited for them to hit us, we
8:40would suffer more casualties and more deaths.
8:42We went proactively in a defensive way to prevent them from inflicting higher damage.
8:46Had we not done so, there would have been hearings on Capitol Hill about how
8:50we knew that this was going to happen and we didn't act preemptively to prevent
8:53more casualties and more loss of life.
8:55Okay. That was one, I'm very happy that someone else has just sat there besides
9:01me. But two, that was very bad messaging.
9:04That's, I just want to give a little commentary.
9:05That was a very, that clip did a lot of damage to the first clip's
9:13case. And that clip has been taken wildly out of context.
9:17But you needed to hear it because I'm going to explain the third part.
9:21That clip gives a suggestion that Israel made the decision and we followed suit, that
9:27we're in this war for Israel.
9:30There was a third clip, and this is the last one I'm going to play
9:33for this for the show, where he said the administration did not do this because
9:37of Israel. They did this because Iran's missiles were about to become immune from American
9:44interference, that we basically, we didn't strike them now.
9:48We would have no chance to in the future, and they would have long -ranging
9:52ballistic missiles that could reach far into other allies.
9:55Play clip three. Let's say number one is, no matter what, ultimately this operation needed
9:59to happen. That's the question of why now.
10:01But this operation needed to happen because Iran in about a year or a year
10:05and a half would cross the line of immunity, meaning they would have so many
10:08short -range missiles, so many drones, that no one could do anything about it because
10:12they could hold the whole world hostage.
10:13Look at the damage they're doing now.
10:15And this is a week in Iran.
10:17Imagine a year from now.
10:18So that had to happen.
10:19Obviously, we were aware of Israeli intentions and understood what that would mean for us,
10:23and we had to be prepared to act as a result of it.
10:25But this had to happen no matter what.
10:27Okay, so that was a very good explanation, and I wish it was in the
10:33second one because the second clip, and we will bring this up again, the second
10:38clip gives, it's taken out of context, but it gives the notion that this war
10:44started because Israel decided and we could not dissuade Israel.
10:48When in fact, the case was...
10:50is Iran was building these weapons, and if we waited any longer, that they were
10:55completely undeterred, if they waited any longer, we would end up in a situation that
10:58we could not crawl back from, that basically the time was moving along, and we
11:03were going to do this anyway.
11:04Israeli President Bibi Netanyahu was on the Sean Hannity show on Fox, and he said
11:08the same thing. He said, if we didn't strike, we would cross the path of
11:12no return. I'm going to play devil's advocate one thing.
11:15There have been a lot of people who have been critical of the intervention, saying,
11:22and they've been confusing the short -term range missiles with the nuclear facilities.
11:26They're not the same thing.
11:27We took out the nuclear facilities in the summer.
11:30We did not take out all their ballistic missiles and short -range missiles.
11:36I also have one other thing about Bibi Netanyahu, who I don't have a deep
11:41opinion of as a leader, but Israeli intelligence has been warning for decades that Iran
11:48was going to have a nuclear weapon at any moment, and that has never come
11:51to pass. So we need to make it completely clear that Israeli intelligence has not
11:56always, especially when it comes to Iran, been accurate.
12:00I think that's very important.
12:02Now, there have been a lot of mixed messages coming from the administration.
12:06We just saw it in the Marco Rubio clip.
12:08He said things, his first answer was his best, and then as he was pressed,
12:13the conversation got a little confusing, and when Moria have been speaking, it has become
12:18a little more chaotic. Vice President Vance, who, you know, I worked for him.
12:23I know him. He served in Iraq.
12:24He went on Fox News and said that Iran is not Iraq and not Afghanistan
12:282 .0. House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Brian Maslow, Katie Pavlich of News Nation, that
12:35the mission was set for this operation is literally to seek and destroy any piece
12:40of military hardware that can reach out and touch Americans or our interests in the
12:44region. That is a perfect mission to set to respond to the imminent threat that
12:48Iran has been, and that this is not a forever war, and that regime changes
12:52up to the Iranian people.
12:54That is different than what President Trump's initial address has been.
13:00When President Trump gave his initial address, he told the Iranian people, your time has
13:04come. This is your chance for regime change.
13:07He also suggested that the people who he had hoped to fill, to replace the
13:13current leadership of Iran had been killed in the attacks.
13:16Reading between the lines, I have no inside information.
13:20This is just my reading between the lines.
13:22It makes me suggest that Israel, when they were doing their bombing campaign, maybe had
13:29larger targets or more targets than the Americans assessed for.
13:33Because why would America then kill who they want to take over?
13:37And not just one person, because I could see an accidental casualty, but basically Trump
13:42said every person that he had hoped to take over the country was killed in
13:45the attacks. Trump is also, Trump being classic Trump, has said that he is, you
13:51know, ground troops are on the table if necessary.
13:54This is what everyone lost their mind.
13:56Everyone put their hair on fire.
13:58This is what Trump always does.
14:01Now, I'm not saying he won't do this.
14:02I'm saying Trump always says, we will have maximum choices.
14:07We will do anything that's on the table.
14:09I'm not limiting myself to let opposition know you're not going to know that I
14:15have a hard ceiling on something or a hard out on something.
14:17I will put everything on the table.
14:19I'm not particularly worried about ground troops, but I understand why Trump says it because
14:24it's what he does all the time and then he negotiates down from the extreme.
14:28The U .S. launched missiles at more than 2 ,000 Iranian targets, but the regime
14:34change from air is very difficult, right?
14:38To try and get a regime change by just launching missiles is very, very hard,
14:43and I don't think that's a mistake.
14:45I think that Trump cares about getting what Wyckoff and Kushner tried to negotiate for.
14:54If he gets that from a theocrat who's able to work with the United States
14:59and Israel, great. If he's able to get that through a democracy, great.
15:03If he's able to get that through any which way he can get that, he
15:05will take that deal. It matters a lot less to him what kind of government
15:11Iran sets up than as long as one that works with the United States.
15:15And he's made it clear what his conditions are.
15:17No enrichment, no ballistic missiles, and containment of short -range missiles.
15:20And he's willing to work with anyone who gives him that deal.
15:23Those are the facts, as we understand.
15:25That entire thing I just broke down.
15:27That's why we went to war.
15:29That's what the administration has been putting out there as far as content for what
15:33they went to war. That's the buildup for the war.
15:35Now let's get back and now let's get to what people are saying and what
15:39polling is saying about how Americans feel about that content.
15:42That is coming up next.
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16:16T's and C's apply. So I started getting calls almost immediately from reporters saying, how
16:21does MAGA feel about this?
16:22What's the replicate questions for 2028?
16:24How do voters feel? And I have to say, I've always been of the opinion
16:28when it comes to foreign policy intervention that if we take out a bad guy
16:31with no ground troops, minimal to no casualties, Americans in general are not going to
16:37care, especially the MAGA base and giving Trump the leeway to do whatever he wants.
16:43That's just how I think the voters feel about these kinds of interventions.
16:48But the president has taken criticism from people like Megyn Kelly, Matt Walsh, obviously Tucker
16:53Carlson, who was very critical of any intervention.
16:56President Trump says he is not phased by the criticisms or by any polling.
17:01And the polling is not great.
17:03Rachel Bade from the huddle spoke to President Trump and he said that Megyn Kelly,
17:06by the way, she said this isn't our war.
17:09He said she needs to study her history books a little bit.
17:12He said Tucker Carlson, who obviously big, big critic, said that that this criticism had
17:18no impact on him. He said Trump said this, quote, I think MAGA is Trump.
17:23MAGA is not the other two.
17:25Referring to Kelly and Carlson.
17:26MAGA wants to see our country thrive and safe and be safe.
17:30MAGA loves what I'm doing in every aspect of it.
17:33But what do the polls say?
17:36Reuters, Ipsos poll. This is an internet poll.
17:39They said 27 percent of Americans approve of the strike.
17:4243 percent disapproved. That's a lot of undecideds right there.
17:45This includes 55 percent of Republicans who support it.
17:4813 percent who do not support it.
17:51CNN poll found 59 percent disapproved of the strike.
17:5441 percent approved. This includes a quarter of Republicans disapproving of the strike.
17:59Washington Post SSRS poll. They found that 39 percent supported the strike.
18:0452 percent opposed. A UGA poll was an outlier.
18:09They said 40 percent supported the strike.
18:1131 percent disapproved of it.
18:1367 percent supported and nine disapproved.
18:16Democrats are almost uniformly opposed to this.
18:20I mean, it's got everything they hate.
18:22Trump, Israel, you name it.
18:24But Republicans are in large part supportive because they trust the president.
18:31And the opposition to it probably makes up conservatively between 10 to 20 percent right
18:36now of Republican voters. That's high.
18:39That's not that's not where Trump was on a lot of other issues.
18:43That certainly wasn't where Bush was on Iraq or Afghanistan or Trump's previous strikes or
18:48the Venezuela stuff. There are a lot of people who are worried on the right
18:53and the left has its marching orders.
18:57Democrats who are uniformly opposing everything that Trump does.
19:01They took that that second clip I played of Marco Rubio and that one that
19:06I said earlier in the show.
19:07Very important. Remember it. Listen to it.
19:09And some people on the right are doing this as well.
19:11And they are creating the narrative.
19:13This is the narrative you are going to hear from people who oppose this.
19:16We went to war for Israel.
19:18That is what you're going to hear.
19:20And it's not just coming from bloggers, right?
19:22These aren't people who don't mean anything.
19:25Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego, a likely candidate for the Democratic nomination for president, tweeted, What
19:30the F happened to America first?
19:32About the clip. Congressman Sarah McBride tweeted, This is simply unacceptable.
19:36The United States and the United States alone gets to decide if whether we are
19:40going to war. And you better believe Congress must be part of it.
19:43Representative Pramala Jappal, who's, you know, completely mentally deranged.
19:48She said, So instead of demanding that Israel not bomb Iran, we let Israel forces
19:52endure forever war with grave consequences to American lives and taxpayers.
19:56Representative Joaquin Castro said Secretary Rubio's remarks indicate that Israel put the U .S.
20:01forces in harm's way by insisting on attacking Iran.
20:04And the administration was complicit joining the war instead of talking them down.
20:07Representative Sarah Jacobs, Rubio said the quiet part out loud, This is an unnecessary war
20:13of choice. Israel forced our hand.
20:16Representative Jim McGovern, Rubio's remarks are astonishing.
20:19They are no way an imminent threat and said Netanyahu was about to attack Iran,
20:23forcing our hand by putting the U .S.
20:25troops at risk of retaliation.
20:27Representative Lloyd Doggett, Rubio confirms that like last year's attack on Iran, Trump was too
20:32weak to tell Netanyahu no, as George Bush had done.
20:37So a psychot Chakrabarty, who was AOC's mentor, and he's currently a candidate for Congress.
20:41He's very left wing, but he represents a lot of what progressives believe.
20:45He said Trump has decided that Americans must die because Israel wants war with Iran.
20:49Senator Elizabeth Warren grilled Secretary Colby, and she said, And we didn't do this to
20:55protect Israel. And he said that was one of our goals.
20:57It's not those are just elected official Democrats, but it's uniform.
21:00And out of the commentary class, that clip of Rubio is giving them their marching
21:08orders, is creating their narrative.
21:09The Pots of America guys said this was all for Netanyahu.
21:12Sahil Kapoor, he's a senior reporter at NBC News.
21:16He's, you know, not a hyper -partisan, but he tweeted, Rubio's saying here the U
21:21.S. was in essence pulled into this war by Israel's determination to attack Iran.
21:25Hence, we went proactively in a defensive way.
21:28Dan Turntine, who has been on this podcast, very smart Democrat consultant, super smart.
21:34He tweeted something I think is worth sharing.
21:36He said, So Israel was going to attack.
21:39Forgive me for losing count, but is this explanation 13 or 14 now?
21:42Ambiguity worked in Venezuela because the mission lasted for 14 years.
21:45hours. If this is not successfully concluded soon, there's going to be a shifting rationales
21:49are going to be a big problem.
21:51This is what rank and file Democrats believe as a response.
21:56We went to war. We went to war for Israel.
21:58And I know that clip is being taken out of context.
22:01I played you the third one so you understood it.
22:04But this has had untold damage.
22:07And Speaker Johnson and Senator Akkad all went on television basically saying the same thing,
22:12that Israel was going to attack and we needed to respond.
22:15That is the wrong thing to say.
22:17I mean, that is just that is not the approach you want to take if
22:21you're part of this administration, if you're a Republican in Congress.
22:24Iran was going to build weapons that we could not reach.
22:27It was going to be an imminent threat over the next year to 18 months.
22:31And after months and months of negotiation, they said we still want nuclear enrichment.
22:36So we took out their leader after 47 years of trying to negotiate with them
22:40and then posing an existential threat, not just to Israel, but to Saudi Arabia, Qatar,
22:46QAE, Kuwait. These are all nations working to intervene to stop Iranian missile missiles and
22:52drones from attacking our embassies, our hotels, where our military officials are saying this is
22:58the response. Iran was the proactive one.
23:01And they had a year to 18 months.
23:03And we knew the location of the Supreme leader.
23:05We knew the location of the top generals.
23:07So we went after them.
23:09Injecting Israel as the main actor in the conversation, even though obviously Israel and Bibi
23:15Netanyahu lobbied very heavily for it, even though there was an advantage for them for
23:19this happening. They are the regional opposition Iran to Israel.
23:22That should have been the response.
23:24Make it about Iran and the missiles and the bunkers.
23:27Do not make it about Israel.
23:30In a media environment where everything is clippable and everything is made for a TikTok
23:34audience, you can't have flubs like this.
23:38You just can't. My own personal take is this, and I'm going to be very
23:41honest with my audience as I always am.
23:43I am extremely torn. I have so many people in my life who are either
23:48Persian or Jewish, and they were ecstatic over the weekend.
23:53My cousin's wife, who is Persian, whose family had to flee from Iran, actually broke
23:58down in tears. She was so happy.
24:00It's a normal reaction. I am very happy for them.
24:03I cannot imagine what those families have been through with this dictator who destroyed their
24:09ancestral homeland, destroyed their lives, caused so much suffering, killed tens of thousands of his
24:15own people, something that those on the left supporting Iran just don't talk about.
24:19Tens of thousands of people brutally murdered by this regime.
24:22This is a brutal dictator that was taken out.
24:26There should be no sympathy, and there's been limited.
24:29Some college leftists aren't saying that they've done it, but there should be no sympathy.
24:34This was a murderer who, if there is any justice in the cosmos, is burning
24:39in hell right now, and I don't say that lightly.
24:42I don't trust Israeli intelligence.
24:45They have been gung -ho for military interventions for a very, very long time, and
24:50they have not always been accurate, especially when it comes to Iran.
24:56Iran is a destabilizing actor in the region.
25:01They are an ally of China, and it shows by, over the last decade, how
25:07many more Middle Eastern countries have been willing to negotiate with Israel, especially under Trump's
25:11leadership in the United States, than Iran over the last few years.
25:14Iran has become more isolated.
25:16Israel has become, and I wouldn't say embraced, but they have working partnerships.
25:20The Gaza war did a lot of damage to that, but before then, with the
25:23peace accords and other things, there's been a lot of progress made.
25:28And yet, despite all those things that I believe about the Iranian regime being terrible,
25:34the dictator being a murderous thug, I believe the missiles were being created in bunkers.
25:39I don't think that was wrong.
25:40I don't want a ground war.
25:42I don't want an invasion.
25:43I don't want an America in charge of Iran.
25:46I don't, and I don't believe that this is going to benefit Republicans for owning
25:51this war. I'm already getting a lot of questions.
25:54If this war goes, I talked to a reporter today, if this war goes well,
25:56would it help Republicans in the fall?
25:58The answer is no. Look at what happened in Venezuela.
26:02It was flawless. It was in our hemisphere.
26:05It was perfectly executed. It was brilliant.
26:08And it did absolutely nothing for the president and the GOP for the midterms.
26:13This is not going to change when it comes to the conflict that has already
26:17cost American lives. America is a war -weary country, and a lot of people elected
26:24Trump because he was the only Republican willing to say that the Iraq war was
26:28a mistake. I also think this war is going to be terrible as far as
26:34public opinion in the United States.
26:36And I think it's going to be horrible for Israel, by the way.
26:39Those clips of Rubio are already gone viral.
26:43Millions of people have seen them.
26:44I don't think there is any way Israel walks its public opinion back for the
26:51time being. It's just, it's sinking like a rock.
26:53And I'm a big supporter of Israel, but I have a question in my mind,
26:59and maybe I shouldn't ask this out loud, but I will.
27:01I have a question in my mind.
27:02If the leadership of Israel believes that this is the last administration that is going
27:07to have a favorable relationship with them, so they need to go big, I question
27:11if that's really why they're pressing.
27:13Trumpists, they think whoever follows Republican or Democrat will not be as favorable to them
27:17as Trump is right now.
27:18And I do worry about a long, prolonged war.
27:22I worry about terror cells who may live in the United States.
27:25We've already had an act of terrorism in this country where three Americans' lives were
27:28stolen by this savage who came to our country legally.
27:32Ted Cruz said he loves legal immigration.
27:34Well, he was legally, he came here legally from Bengal.
27:37And then he murdered three Americans in Ted Cruz's state.
27:40And we've lost six Americans in the military so far.
27:42I don't want any more Americans killed.
27:44And I'm crushed at the number of innocent children in Iran being killed right now.
27:50This war is horrific, period.
27:51And it's always the last thing that we should do.
27:54And I'm afraid that we are going to be entrenched in a war we can't
28:00pull back from in just a week or two weeks or three weeks or four.
28:05And that this becomes the entire identity of Trump's second term.
28:10And that will affect, obviously, Republicans going forward.
28:12That will affect the country as a whole going forward.
28:15And sometimes you may say this is not Afghanistan or Iraq.
28:19But you might not have a choice.
28:21You can't put the toothpaste back in the tube.
28:24You just can't. So I worry about that.
28:28I worry about how long Iran is going to hold out for an Obama campaign.
28:32And if they're going to call terror cells throughout the region, throughout the country, throughout
28:36the countries of the world, and say, now's our time.
28:40Go after every Christian, every Jew, every American that you possibly can and try to
28:46create mass casualties and try to target soft targets in the United States.
28:50That's my thought. And I really pray for a quick resolution.
28:53And hopefully this comes at an end fast and in the best way possible for
28:58the United States and our allies abroad.
29:00That was the whole story of Iran.
29:02I really went into this week preparing to talk about the election in Texas, the
29:07primary. I want to cover that in depth coming up.
29:11The election was obviously yesterday, but as of the taping, I don't know the results
29:15yet because it's late at night.
29:16So I will cover that for the Friday episode.
29:18And I have a lot of big topics to get to.
29:20I have also a takedown of a horrible politician I cannot wait to present to
29:24you guys. I think that that's becoming my niche in the podcast universe is these
29:28deep dives of terribly corrupt politicians.
29:31This one's a Democrat. I've done three on Republicans.
29:34This one's a Democrat. I'm going to really put this one to the old, you
29:39know, political analysis meat grinder and really go in on what they're doing that is
29:45pretty horrific. Okay. Next up is Ask Me Anything.
29:48Stay tuned. Hi, I'm Lita and my business, The Donut Mum, is backed by ComBank.
29:56When we opened, it was just me and my husband, Holly.
29:59No big team, no fancy systems.
30:02You see the big stores and think they've got people for everything.
30:05We've just got each other.
30:07But with ComBank, I know our business payments are protected.
30:11That matters because this place is everything to us.
30:14Business security baked in. No doubt.
30:18Eligibility criteria and T's and T's apply.
30:21Now it's time for Ask Me Anything.
30:23If you want to be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email me ryan
30:26at numbersgamepodcast .com. That's ryan at numbers, plural, numbersgamepodcast .com.
30:30I love these questions. I have a couple in the docket, not many, so I
30:34will get to your questions fairly quickly if you send them to me.
30:37This first one comes from Weston.
30:39He says, Hi, I hope you're doing well.
30:41Thanks, Weston. I wanted to reach out and ask you if you have a sense
30:44of the chances that the Virginia redistricting effort will succeed.
30:47I have been trying to follow it, but I'm not sure how likely it will
30:49move forward given the pushback from the judicial system.
30:52I'm also wondering if you know any organizations that are actively working to stop it
30:56and that might be worth supporting either financially or through volunteering if there are groups
31:00you think are especially effective and reputable.
31:02I really appreciate hearing your thoughts on the podcast.
31:06Thanks, Weston. So this is a great question.
31:07There have been a lot of back and forth with the judges and the courts,
31:10but ultimately a Virginia circuit court judge essentially rule that they can go ahead and
31:15start the voting and the election begins, early voting begins on Friday.
31:20I mean, it's not like early voting begins in six months.
31:23There's a bunch of other court hearings.
31:25And I don't know if even if the Supreme Court gets involved and rules that
31:32it's unconstitutional the way that they did it, there's probably no way to stop the
31:36election from happening. They might do that after the election, but the election is going
31:40to happen. So the most important things to do for conservatives is to win the
31:44election. The election begins early voting begins Friday.
31:47The entire election happens on April 21st for Virginia listeners who want to vote.
31:53You have until April 21st to make your voices heard on that.
31:56So far from what I'm seeing, Democrats are investing a lot of money.
31:59They spend $10 million in the House majority forward, $9 million from the Fairness Project,
32:04and $1 million from American Opportunity Action, a newly created liberal dark money group.
32:09I don't know of any Republican efforts as of yet in a united front.
32:14I'm not saying they won't, but I don't know it as of now.
32:18And my best bet as far as organizations go is I know several Republican congressmen
32:23are putting up a fight.
32:24My best bet to you would be to reach out to your Republican congressman, the
32:28one nearest to you, and ask them how you can get involved.
32:32I'd also call your county Republican organization and ask how you would get involved.
32:37I don't know of any, I've reached out to some people.
32:40Virginia that I know asking what they should do, who they should call.
32:44I haven't heard back yet.
32:45But when I do, I will let you guys know.
32:47And I will say one thing.
32:48I know California was very one -sided for Democrats.
32:52The polling in Virginia is not as extreme.
32:56There was a Roanoke College poll that found only 44 % of Virginia supported the
32:59redistricting effort, 52 % opposed it.
33:02There was another Christopher Newport University poll that found 51 % supported it, 43%.
33:08That's a very tight hole.
33:09Anything could happen. So it's really not worth giving up on.
33:14Okay. Next question comes from Andrew.
33:16Andrew, this is a long email about voter ID.
33:20So I'm going to get to the question part where he says, what are your
33:22thoughts about messaging going on around voter ID and the misinformation of how you see
33:29it? So look, voter ID is wildly popular.
33:34It's insanely popular. There's really no controversy around it.
33:39It is all made up.
33:40It is all artificial. It's all Democrats not wanting to have voter ID.
33:45And it's just the Democratic Party is one -sided on this.
33:48They don't want voter ID.
33:51Why? They say it's racist, but I mean, anyone, I don't know.
33:57It's not impossible for black Americans to get an ID.
34:00This is the same that part that's trying to get illegals to vote, that's trying
34:03to add people to voter rolls.
34:06It's going to get college kids to register to vote where their dorms are.
34:09I mean, you could read between the lines.
34:11That is why they don't want voter ID.
34:13But on messaging Americans, it's not even a close issue.
34:16It's like 80 -10 on the side of voter ID.
34:20So I don't think it's a problem with messaging.
34:21It's a question of, you know, do they want to do this six months before
34:24a midterm? If the Save Act was that important, Mike Johnson and Mitch McConnell, although
34:32he was there, he wouldn't support it, but maybe John Thune, should have put this
34:35forward on day one when the public had two years to consume it so it
34:40wouldn't have been as politically toxic.
34:42They put this forward very late because Republican voters care about it a lot, but
34:47it's going to be very hard to pass.
34:49Okay, last question comes from my old buddy, Peter Fumma.
34:51Peter says, I know you have a ton of free time.
34:54That's a joke. I don't have a ton of free time.
34:56I wish I did. But I wonder if you read the book, A Better Life
34:58by Lionel Shriver. It's excellent, and you may know and interview her.
35:01I love Lionel Shriver. She's an amazing, amazing author.
35:05We Need to Talk About Kevin was great.
35:07The Mandibles, which is a book about the economic collapse of America, was a book
35:12that kept me up for three days until I finished reading it.
35:15It was incredible. Her best book was The Mandibles, even though We Need to Talk
35:20About Kevin is a much more critically acclaimed book and more well -read.
35:24I have not read it yet.
35:25I didn't like her last book.
35:27It was pretty bad. It was on free thought.
35:29It was pretty bad. But I will try to pick this one up because overall,
35:33Lionel Shriver writes really, really good books.
35:35I will tell you, I'm reading my friend, my friend Brooke Neville's book.
35:38She, about her time over working for the news industry and being sexually harassed and
35:44assaulted and raped. It's a really compelling book.
35:47It's called Unspeakable Things, Silence, Shame, and the Stories We Choose to Believe.
35:51I am also listening on Audible because that's when I walk my dog with my
35:55time. I get into, I'm listening to the book, The Gods of New York.
35:59This was recommended by some of my listeners.
36:02It is a phenomenal book.
36:03It's about New York, 1986 to 1990.
36:06Genuinely a phenomenal book. And then my Kindle, there's a supermodel who wrote an autobiography.
36:13And I don't know why I picked it up, but it's an easy read.
36:17It's something, it's not light because she had a pretty tough life, but it's not
36:21like, it's not in depth where I'm, I'm, I'm overwhelmed by it.
36:25So it's just a little bit, but those are the three books I'm reading right
36:27now. Once I get through these, I will have time to pick up more books,
36:30but I am reading three right now, but I will check out Lionel's book.
36:33All right. This is the show.
36:34Thank you guys so much for listening.
36:36If you like this podcast, please like, and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,
36:39wherever you get this podcast.
36:40And I will talk to you guys on Friday.
36:42We're going to cover the primaries in Texas and upcoming elections.
36:45I will talk to you guys then.
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