It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Trump’s Collapse, 2026 Midterms & Shocking Poll Data
4/6/202638 mincomplete
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0:33T's and C's apply. Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Grosky.
0:39Happy Monday, everybody. I hope you all had a wonderful Easter weekend.
0:42I was meaning to wish that to everyone on Friday's episode, but I never look
0:47more than a day into the calendar where I'm like, oh, wait, what am I
0:50doing tomorrow? So I totally, I didn't forget that Easter was Sunday, but I just
0:54forgot to wish you all happy Easter.
0:56So I hope you had a wonderful Easter.
0:57I hope you guys, my Jewish listeners, had a great Passover.
1:01You know, that it was a good holiday season, Holy Week season.
1:06In my family, everyone has to contribute a dish.
1:09That's how we always do it.
1:10And I make, as I said on this podcast before, I make a big Italian
1:13Sunday dinner. Every Sunday, people are constantly coming over.
1:16I'm cooking for eight, nine, 10, 15 people.
1:19I don't even know who half these people are sometimes.
1:21And I said, this year, I'm done.
1:23I'm not doing it. Like, I'm making something simple.
1:25You're not getting meatballs out of me.
1:26We're doing chocolate -covered pretzels and strawberries and some cookies.
1:29And like, that's it. So that's what I contributed.
1:31It's much easier for me.
1:33That's not the point of this episode.
1:34I don't know why I turn on a tangent for, but I have some good,
1:38some informative, I don't want to say good, informative polling data, some interesting studies that
1:43came out that I want to go into really quickly, and then do an extra
1:47long Ask Me Anything because I had a lot in the docket.
1:49So first of all, a new CNN poll came out.
1:51President Trump's approval rating has hit another all -time low at 35 % disapproval, 64
1:57% disapproval. Craziest part of the crosstab that is very bad for Trump is now.
2:02Trump is underwater with whites without a college degree, his base that every Republican needs.
2:08The numbers also with young voters is down to 20%.
2:11It's not going to get much better unless the economy gets roaring and prices come
2:17down. Word on the street from Washington, the scoop I am hearing from people in
2:24and around the White House is that Trump is mad at everybody right now.
2:27He's not sleeping very much.
2:29And that is kind of why you're seeing him also use social media a lot
2:33more. You can kind of tell when Trump is really posting himself versus others because
2:38if another person is doing it, they may have like the cap locks or whatever.
2:42But if he's doing it by himself personally, they're spelling errors and grammatical errors everywhere.
2:48That's usually a good telltale sign.
2:51So you could see that he's using that quite more often.
2:55Overall, on the issues on the economy, Trump's had a 31 % approval rating on
2:59inflation, 27%. Gas prices, 24%.
3:03Healthcare, 34%. Foreign affairs, 36%.
3:06Immigration, 41%. Election integrity, 43%.
3:11Ironically, the media loves to scream about immigration and voter ID laws.
3:17And those are the two most popular things that he's campaigned on that he's doing.
3:21They are seven and nine points better than he is doing personally.
3:26So I think I'm very, very funny and fascinating that the things that Republican voters
3:31are wired up about, that they actually want to happen, voter ID law nationwide, election
3:37integrity, and crackdown immigration is what Trump's having the best numbers with.
3:44When asking if does Trump pay attention to the right priorities, 33 % of voters
3:48say yes, 66 % of voters say no.
3:50But then when they ask, do congressional Democrats have the right priorities, 25 % say
3:55yes, 75 % say no.
3:57There is this group of people in this poll that they looked at where they
4:01asked specifically, you know, which party do you like?
4:05And there's something called the double haters, people who hate both Republicans and Democrats, and
4:09they swing very heavily one way or the other.
4:11That is why our elections are so volatile compared to, I would say, even like
4:1520, not maybe 20 years ago, but maybe 30 years ago, we have had change
4:19elections a lot. We had in 2006, 2008, 2010, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2024.
4:32I mean, I guess maybe 2020, I wouldn't say 2022, but 2024.
4:36We have had change elections almost every election for 20 years or eight.
4:42Yeah, this will be the 20th year.
4:43Part of the reason is because there is such a large population of double haters
4:47who don't like either party.
4:49Democrats in this election have a big advantage with the double haters.
4:52Guess what? They'll be double hating again.
4:54They'll be hating, you know, the Democratic Party when they are in charge.
4:56It's just this constituency. 25 % of the population is double haters, and right now
5:01there is a 31 -point lead for the Democrats among the double hater population.
5:06It's a very large lead, but that's the lead.
5:08Overall, who are you voting for in the 2026 midterms?
5:12Democrats have a six -point lead, 48 to 42%.
5:17They also lead among independents and other key constituencies.
5:21That's a good night. number for Democrats.
5:23It's not an amazing number, but it's a good number.
5:25The amazing number for Democrats is, are you extremely motivated to vote?
5:3167 % of Democrats say they are extremely motivated to vote this far out.
5:35Only 50 % of Republicans say the same Republicans, if they can get motivated, will
5:40absolutely start chipping away at that Democratic leap.
5:44So not a great number for Trump or Republicans.
5:47But I have a better number, though, for Republicans out of Virginia with the Washington
5:51Post scholars poll. Now, I mentioned to you briefly that the Democratic turnout in this
5:57Virginia referendum on congressional district has been picking up substantially.
6:01Democrats have been spending millions upon millions of dollars.
6:04Republicans, I don't even know what they're doing.
6:06They're not even trying. And the person who's really influenced a lot of people is
6:10President Obama. He's been getting involved in this, you know, referendum.
6:14Obama is such a hypocrite.
6:15He's all about, you know, the integrity of democracy.
6:18Meanwhile, Illinois, his state that he represented is one of the most gerrymandered.
6:23And he's trying to make Virginia the other most gerrymandered.
6:26It's just total hypocrisy. But it's been a very effective, his advertising to get out
6:31the black vote. So far, according to L2 data, this is a company that looks
6:35at, you know, potentially who's a Republican, who's a Democrat in states like Virginia that
6:39don't have explicit Republican versus Democrat registration.
6:42They say it's a D plus 16 turnout so far, Democrat plus 16 turnout.
6:48And they say overall, if you look at it, according to State Navigate, it's about
6:51a 60 -40 Democratic turnout this early on with just a few weeks to go.
6:56Now, if you look at the scholars poll, the Washington Post scholars poll, which is
7:00probably the most accurate or most accredited pollster for Virginia, they say the race is
7:06actually a lot tighter. They say it's 52 to 47 in favor of, yes, only
7:11five points. And in the margin of error, there's a chance that no wins.
7:16That's a very, I mean, that's a good pick me up.
7:18And if I was in Washington and sitting in one of the many packs with
7:22hundreds of millions of dollars in it, I, you know, say, hey, let's try to
7:26crack this open and start spending some money to save Virginia.
7:29Or maybe they're just hoping, my part of me says they're just going to give
7:32up on the election and just try to fight it in the courts afterwards, because
7:35the courts haven't decided yet.
7:37The courts that will decide after the people vote, which is just so dumb.
7:41It's so, so dumb. When they looked, when Washington Post scholars poll looked at the
7:47number, 46 % of people who are voting for this amendment are voting to oppose
7:52Trump. It's obviously, you know, very much in the Democratic gene pool right now is
7:57just opposing Trump, which makes me wonder how the Democrats are going to be in
8:012028 when Trump is on the ballot.
8:03Like, how are they going to actually propel ideas if it doesn't mean just opposing
8:08Trump? 10 % said that they are supporting the amendment to support Trump.
8:13I think that people need to do a lot more research on this amendment before
8:16voting on it. 8 % of respondents say they think Republicans will win more seats
8:21if they vote for it.
8:23So either there's a disinformation, it looks like there's a disinformation campaign going on or
8:28something. There's no, it's crazy that one in 10 think that voting for this is
8:33to help the Republicans. That's the margin of error.
8:36So something has to happen, which is why Republicans should be spending money to inform
8:41the general public. This is written in a way to make people confused.
8:45The most infuriating part of this referendum, as I said, with Democrats far outspending Republicans
8:52is when asked, when they asked the voters, should this maps be drawn to represent
8:59fairness in the state or to compete with other states?
9:02It was overwhelming. 57 % said it should be fair for people within the state
9:05and they shouldn't count what other states are doing.
9:0948 % overall. So this entire process is unfair.
9:13When looking purely in partisan lines, about 90 % of Republicans are opposing this.
9:1810 % of Republicans are in favor of the redistricting plan.
9:21I have to think that those are the same people who are saying, oh, this
9:24will be good for Republicans.
9:2654 % of white voters to 44 % are opposing this plan.
9:31Men are opposing it by a seven -point plan.
9:34A seven -point margin, rather.
9:35Independents are supporting the referendum by 10 points.
9:38That's among all people not likely voters, so it's probably much smaller.
9:43Asians and Hispanics support the referendum by 24 points.
9:46Democrats by a margin of 91 to 7 and Blacks by a margin of 79
9:51to 15. It's at these moments that I need to emphasize if this plan happens
9:57by three or four points.
9:58It's in part because America accepted mass immigration and we changed the demographics of Virginia.
10:05We have all these Latinos and Asians who have moved into Northern Virginia and they
10:10are going to give Democrats the margin of victory to disenfranchise not only all Virginians,
10:15but the entire American public.
10:17So I need to kind of sprinkle in about immigration wherever I can.
10:23Okay, briefly, before we go into ask me anything, let's talk about some of the
10:27job numbers that came out and the budget that the White House proposed.
10:31So the job numbers were released on Friday and maybe someone already on vacation or
10:36getting ready for Easter, but there was 178 ,000 jobs created in the month of
10:40February. That is booming compared to what estimates were supposed to be 43.
10:45Unemployment is down to 4 .3%.
10:47Unemployment for white workers stood at 3 .6%.
10:50for Asians, 3 .7%, Latinos, 4 .8%, and Black workers, 7 .1%, all down pretty
10:57significantly. Big job creator was, of course, healthcare, 76 ,000 healthcare jobs, construction, 26 ,000
11:05construction jobs, transportation and warehouse, 21 ,000, and manufacturing, thank God, 15 ,000 new manufacturing
11:12jobs. Wages continued to rise in March.
11:15The average hourly earnings for all employees rose by 9 cents or 0 .2 %
11:20to $37 .38. Over the year, average earnings have increased by 3 .5%, beating inflation
11:27in March. Average hourly earnings of private sector production and non -supervisor employees edged 5
11:33cents or 0 .2 % to $32 .07.
11:37The average workweek also inched down to 34 .2 hours per week from 34 .3%.
11:44Labor force, this is interesting, labor force participation dropped by nearly 400 ,000.
11:51But is it because people are dropping out of the workforce because they can't get
11:55a job or because of illegal immigrants being deported or maybe or self -deporting or
12:01just leaving the workforce? The Dallas Fed put out a report just a few days
12:06before this number came out.
12:08I was saving it for this number, saying that according to the Dallas Federal Reserve,
12:12548 ,000 illegal alien workers left the United States in 2025.
12:19So could the 400 ,000 be all illegal alien workers?
12:22Highly doubted. But at that rate, and the number was picking up month by month
12:26in 2025, they probably had a substantial amount of that number decreasing.
12:33Another good point from the jobs aspect is that 335 ,000 of the jobs created
12:39during the month of February were full -time jobs.
12:42Part -time jobs decreased actually by 188 ,000.
12:47That is fantastic. People are working full -time.
12:50We're still down overall year to year with blue -collar jobs and tech jobs.
12:55But this was a great number that the White House very badly needed.
12:58America needed. We need more good economic numbers to make people feel better, get the
13:03stock market up, get people back to work, get wages going.
13:06Last point I want to make about the jobs number.
13:09This is so annoying. I don't know why this is the way this is.
13:13But they do these revisions two months out, which like, then why am I even
13:18getting excited for these numbers if we're going to see a whole new number in
13:22two months? But for January, the numbers were revised from 126 ,000 jobs created in
13:27January to 160. That is good.
13:30And then from February, they were revised down from 90 ,000 jobs being lost to
13:34133 ,000 jobs being lost.
13:37That is bad. Okay, that's the jobs number.
13:39Overall, very good for the White House.
13:41We need a lot more good economic data like that.
13:44So hopefully we're turning a corner.
13:46The White House put out a new budget.
13:49This budget is likely not going to become law.
13:51It's a blueprint, especially for Democrats and Republicans to get together and start arguing over
13:56things, especially as such a tight House of Representatives.
13:59But the budget that the White House put forward to is honestly pathetic.
14:03I talked to someone at OMB the other day when talking about this because a
14:08Bloomberg piece came out and it said that we were going to cut entitlements, which
14:13turned out not to be true.
14:14The whole Bloomberg piece was fake news.
14:16And in a tough election cycle, I don't think we were going to cut entitlements.
14:19However, it does expand the deficit, which does anyone know how much money we're spending?
14:28So it slashes discretionary spending by $73 billion and then increases military spending by $445
14:35billion. So let me put it this way.
14:38We're going to borrow money for places like China or print it.
14:42I know we don't really print it, but we put it on the spreadsheet, which
14:47will decrease purchasing power for American Americans dollars, which will hurt people, young people, old
14:53people, people on fixed incomes.
14:56And all, you know, to increase military spending.
15:00Part of it's to increase critical munitions, which is very, very important.
15:03Something that we needed because we're in a hole, especially after Iran.
15:06But we're expanding the deficit.
15:09And I don't understand, like, why?
15:14Why don't we, if we're going to cut by $73 billion, why don't we only
15:16increase by $73 billion? Or why don't we look to cut $400 billion to increase
15:20by $400 billion? Like, the deficit is a huge national security issue.
15:25Are we just going to pretend that numbers aren't real and that, you know, that
15:29America's purchasing power isn't real and that the credit rating isn't real?
15:33Like, this is nuts. And also, of course, in this budget throughout the entire part,
15:41a lower part of it was the idea of spending more tax dollars on AI
15:44research because we're going to spend taxpayer money on AI research that will displace their
15:49jobs one day. All because we're going to combat China.
15:53That's the big, you know, little talking point, combat China.
15:56One of my friends put it this way, if we're so concerned about combating China
16:00on AI, why are we still selling chips to China?
16:04Why aren't we forbading companies that work with us to work with China?
16:08And I was like, that's actually a really, really great point.
16:11It's all fake and gay, everything that the data companies and tech companies are putting
16:16out as far as narratives go.
16:17Okay, up next is Ask Me Anything.
16:53Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment.
16:55If you want to be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email me, Ryan
16:57at NumbersGamePodcast .com. That's Ryan at Numbers, plural NumbersGamePodcast .com.
17:01We're going to do an extra long one because I have so many emails I
17:04have not gotten to yet and I want to get to everyone.
17:07So the first question comes from Glenn from the great state of Texas.
17:09He says, my wife homeschooled all three of our kids through high school with the
17:13last one graduating in 2018.
17:15Congratulations to your kid. I would love to hear you run down the numbers on
17:19homeschool movement, whether it impacts birth rate, religious revival, political participation, or voting predisposition.
17:25Maybe how much an increase and decrease in red and blue states since the advent
17:29of COVID. Well, it has increased nationwide substantially.
17:33The homeschool population overall from 2016 to 2024 went from 2 .3 million to 3
17:40.4 million. According to the National Home Education Research Institute, 6 .2 % of kids
17:46nationwide are homeschooled. To put that into perspective, only 1 .7 million kids go to
17:52Catholic school and 3 .8 million are charter.
17:55So, you know, homeschooling is not equal to charter schools, but it's getting very, very
18:00close. The state with the most homeschooled students is North Carolina.
18:05Red states do have more homeschooling than blue states do, but it's not exclusive.
18:10So, North Carolina is 10 % of all kids are homeschooled, about 10%, depending on
18:14the numbers, because homeschool, I mean, North Carolina, by the way, has one of the
18:18worst education systems in terms of bussing goes and what school assignments are.
18:23It's a disaster. That's not a different episode.
18:27But after North Carolina, we have South Dakota, Arkansas, Maine, Mississippi, and Georgia being the
18:33leading states. So, mostly red states, a purple state in Georgia, and a blue state
18:36in Maine. Most parents actually, you mentioned religious revival.
18:40I found this interesting. Most parents do not cite religion as a main reason for
18:45homeschooling. They cite safety, which is so interesting because I always talk to teachers about
18:51what's the biggest concern for them, and safety's brought up number one and number two.
18:55And it's not necessarily safety from outside the school, like not a gunman coming inside
18:59the school. That's not usually what they're talking about.
19:02They're oftentimes talking about violent students and not being able to discipline or reprimand them.
19:07And that is a constant conversation I've had with teachers because what they do a
19:12lot of times with these students is they just, they don't move them out of
19:16the school. They'll kind of just keep rotating them until they act violent towards a
19:21teacher. Most, I mean, they do it mostly to other students, but to teachers as
19:24well. As far as birth rate go, there's no official number on fertility rate.
19:29It's not like a point I could look at, too.
19:31According to one study that I read, 48 % of homeschool kids have three or
19:36more children in their family, which means it's larger than the national average.
19:39But I couldn't find, like, an exact number, and I did look quite a bit.
19:43But they kind of only break it down to you have one child, two children,
19:46or three or more. So about half have three or more, which is higher than
19:50the national average. As far as partisanship goes, I couldn't find anything on the 2024
19:55election. There hasn't been a deep dive on that, but on 2020, 58 % of
20:00homeschool parents voted for Donald Trump, 62 % voted for him in 2016, and 60
20:05% voted for Mitt Romney in 2012.
20:09There is a greater diversity, both ethnic and religious, in the homeschool community than people
20:15think. It's not just evangelical Christians anymore.
20:18There's a lot of minorities who homeschool now.
20:21There's a lot of non -religious people who homeschool now.
20:24So, I mean, it's not, I think, sometimes what people think it's going to be.
20:28Next question comes from Holly.
20:29She says, by the way, thank you for that question on the homeschooling.
20:33Holly writes to me, Ryan, I really enjoy your talk on foreign politics.
20:36I hate to say it, but it gives me a small degree of comfort to
20:39hear dysfunction in other countries.
20:40A lot of them are way more dysfunctional than America.
20:43You wouldn't get that from the news, but they are.
20:45Like, the U .S. is not alone.
20:46Speaking of dysfunction, what's up with France and their investigations?
20:49Are they a bunch of hapless Inspector Clouseaus bumping into each other with magnifying glasses?
20:55I looked for updates on last year's Louvre heist, but the most recent articles I
20:59found didn't make the investigation look too brilliant.
21:02They also made me wonder, whatever happened in the Notre Dame fire investigation?
21:05Does the lack of suspect mean that we're a protected class for the left and
21:10maybe it really wasn't an accident?
21:12Thank you. Yeah, Holly, I wasn't so interested.
21:15I love crime stories. I wasn't so interested in the Louvre story after, like, the
21:19first day. I mean, it was jaw -droppingly embarrassing for the French, the fact that
21:25they were able to steal, you know, $100 million of priceless jewels.
21:29I guess it's not priced.
21:30It was $100 million, but $100 million of historic jewels in broad daylight with a
21:36camera on them, and they never got the jewels back.
21:39They did arrest four people, but they never got the jewels back.
21:43I don't think they'll ever get the jewels back.
21:45Maybe they should really turn it to like some private investigators or some private sleuth
21:52treasure hunters. I find treasure hunters fascinating as a group of people like that's what
21:58I would like. I told someone the other day that I was insane.
22:00But if I was retired and I wasn't working anymore, that's what I would do
22:04for a hobby, be a professional treasure hunter, because I find those people so interesting.
22:09I wouldn't play like a canaster or something.
22:11I would try to be a treasure hunter.
22:13I'm sure that is nuts.
22:14I promise you I'm a bit more sane than I sound sometimes.
22:18As far as the Notre Dame fires go, I don't think it was a conspiracy.
22:23Look, I've traveled a bit around the world.
22:26I've been all over this country.
22:28Something that is not unique about any given place is there are a lot of
22:31lazy, stupid and careless people.
22:33And you should never look when the answer is so obvious that idiots are in
22:39charge. Don't look for conspiracy because it's not there.
22:42Sometimes it's just because people are idiots and they're careless.
22:46And I think that's what happened, unfortunately, with Notre Dame.
22:48And thankfully, they were able to get a lot of the important artifacts out of
22:52the cathedral while it was burning.
22:54So, OK. Next up comes from my question from my friend Peter Fomo.
22:59Peter, I hope I pronounced your last name correctly.
23:01He writes, one thing that makes me nervous about J .D.
23:03is that he was against Trump in the past.
23:05My earliest recollection was him being with Mona Sharon and Jay Nordlinger on a podcast
23:12in 2013. He did not strike me as populist.
23:15Despite his background, I never thought he was a convincing account of his epiphany.
23:19Since you know him, what made him change his mind on Trump and immigration?
23:21So, on Trump, I mean, he was changing his mind on Trump in 2019.
23:27It was just private and he wasn't saying it publicly.
23:30But he's shown me emails that he sent to friends and family members saying he
23:34was for Trump. I think it was because Trump was president.
23:37And I think part of it is, well, he said this story publicly that the
23:43more that he was around business people, especially one dinner in specific, I forget who
23:48it was, but he was around a bunch of businessmen and they were very much
23:52putting down American workers and talking about the need for foreigners as a way to
23:59kind of fix their bottom line.
24:01And I guess J .D.
24:02kind of just had enough.
24:03And I think that and he said this, you know, in the past that he
24:06that once the veil was down, once he was in the club, he realized the
24:11people in the club with him were not, you know, not one of his people.
24:17And you have to think for a second about what J .D.
24:22gave up to be a Trump supporter and to be a Republican like he is
24:26now. I mean, yes, he's the vice president.
24:29He's certainly and was a senator for a year and a half.
24:32And he's had a very quick rise.
24:34That was not guaranteed in 2021, 2022, when he came out for Trump.
24:39He was a literary celebrity, a real literary celebrity, which is very rare nowadays because
24:45no one reads. Not like they used to anyway.
24:48He was a self -made multimillionaire.
24:50He was on Stephen Colbert and all these talk shows and invited to these fancy
24:55conferences with like, you know, everyone you want to rub elbows with.
25:00And he gave it all up.
25:01And from somebody who started at nothing to give up some things you made for
25:05yourself is a big deal.
25:08You know, I made my company by myself.
25:11I made everything I have by myself.
25:13I mean, I've gotten some some lucky breaks, but I was not an apple baby
25:18and I wasn't given anything by anybody and handed anything on a golden platter.
25:22In fact, very much the opposite of that.
25:24And I had to fight for it and to give it up on principle.
25:28That would be very difficult.
25:29And a lot of people, a lot of people in politics do not give it
25:33up. They only make, you know, moves that they think that they can get more
25:38access and more favorability. But when J .D.
25:41made those decisions, there was no Senate seat up in 2022.
25:44We were talking about him running in 2024 against Sherrod Brown.
25:48So there was no lane.
25:50He did this before there was a lane.
25:51And, you know, not being right.
25:54Okay. Coming up next is more Ask Me Anything.
25:56I'll be right back. This podcast is brought to you by Wise, the app for
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26:28T's and C's apply. Okay.
26:30This question comes from Mark.
26:32He says, I'm a big fan of your work, including your great newsletter.
26:34Thank you, Mark. Mark, I hope you were okay with me not having a newsletter
26:38for Easter. I'm just burnt out and I needed a holiday break.
26:41But thank you for reading the National Poppies newsletter.
26:44I try to write more to it.
26:45I still need to find, I need to get a personal assistant, a professional assistant,
26:48someone who could work on a lot of things with me because that is a
26:52part of the, what I would like to build out is a newsletter or some
26:56more. You write, if I run for office in the future, I would like you
26:59to advise me. Okay, Mark.
27:03He says, it goes, I'm a Utah resident.
27:05I've been involved with the State Republican Party here.
27:07Utah is a unique state politically.
27:08Is there a legitimate path for a national populist type of candidate to win in
27:11Utah? And what? might that look like?
27:14So yeah, Utah is a very Republican state, but it's obviously the LDS community.
27:17The Latter -day Saints community is very prominent in Utah.
27:21They are not a populist population.
27:24I would say this, Mark, you should definitely be dotting your I's and crossing your
27:29T's. You cannot be crass or rude.
27:33Politeness means a lot to, and manners mean a lot to Utah and Mormons, and
27:39that has to be something you take into account.
27:42How you present yourself is very, very important.
27:44You cannot be like Donald Trump, and you have to think about that early, and
27:48how you present yourself means a lot to them.
27:51Showing up for the job that you want means a lot to them.
27:53As far as populism goes, definitely on economic populism, there's a path forward, because they
27:58are very skeptical of tech stuff.
28:00They are very for family stuff.
28:04There's a lot of things you could do on the worker side, and on the
28:07tech side, and on the pro -family side that is very populist.
28:12On the immigration stuff, it's a little more dicey.
28:15They have pretty favorable towards immigration.
28:17They have this, I guess, more religious belief that they can kind of convert anybody,
28:22and Mormons are really big about kind of conversion and spending time abroad.
28:27I would say this, really focus on, when it comes to immigration, the enforcement aspects.
28:32Don't go hard. Don't imagine that Utah is Alabama, or, you know, another state, or
28:39Arizona. It's Utah. So just go with that thing, and work a lot on economic
28:45populism. I think you have a path forward, and also present yourself that is a
28:50way that people would want an elected official to look like and sound like, and
28:54start early before you run.
28:55Make it well known. And also, Utah is great when it comes to civic engagement.
28:59I would start engaging with civic organizations.
29:02It sounds like you are, but other civic organizations as early as possible, and get
29:07your name well known in a way that people can trust you.
29:11Okay, next question comes from Bobby from Tennessee.
29:14Bobby writes, I've listened to all your shows.
29:16Bobby, I appreciate you. I was actually, I was not born in Tennessee.
29:18I was born in New York, but we moved to Tennessee when I was like
29:21a week old. My dad was in Marines, and we were stationed in Memphis, and
29:25I spent the first six months of my life in Memphis, Tennessee.
29:28Except for that week in New York, but the rest of my life has been
29:31in Tennessee. You write, by the way, telling people from like Knoxville area that you
29:37lived in Memphis is like no bigger insult.
29:41In my experience of talking to people from like Knoxville and Eastern Tennessee, but I
29:45love Eastern Tennessee anyway. You write, my favorite, my favorite has been why Democrats are
29:50so driven to support illegal immigration.
29:51In addition to illegals voting, the revelation to me is that legals are counted in
29:55congressional districting. While it was enlightened and maddening, they claim compassion for people as their
30:01reason, but the selfish Democrat plan is to retain power through mass illegal immigration.
30:06It should be exposed. Why don't Republicans talk about it more?
30:10I wish I knew why Republicans don't talk about things more than they do.
30:15I would be a lot smarter and wealthier a person if I could figure out
30:20human psychology in a more concise manner.
30:24I don't know. They do talk about it a little bit.
30:27Maybe it's because they believe it's just too complicated of an issue for people to
30:30care about. I don't know.
30:32And the truth is, yes, it's illegal immigration, which is unforgivable because there should be
30:36no illegal immigrants in this country, but also it is legal immigration.
30:40Just remember that it's both.
30:41It's both illegal and illegal.
30:43And Trump's efforts for mass deportation is going to change the fabric of our country
30:49in the next decade. It's not for right now.
30:52I mean, it's a little bit for right now, but it's immensely changing.
30:56California could easily lose six to eight congressional districts.
30:59New York could lose three.
31:00Illinois could lose two or three.
31:02Those states alone is 13.
31:04As long as you retain Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona, you win the
31:09presidency for the entire next decade and congressional districts and the House.
31:14It's so important. Mass deportations is so important, despite all the negative news coverage that
31:21you may be reading about mass deportations.
31:22Keep the face. It is so important.
31:25Okay. Next question. I'm sorry.
31:26I don't have a more concise answer for you.
31:28I don't know. I don't know why they don't talk about it more.
31:31I wish they did, but I don't.
31:33Next question comes from Luann.
31:34You write, I'm a Midwest baby boomer.
31:36I love parts of the Midwest, by the way.
31:38Some of, I mean, the Midwest is unique as all can be.
31:42And try to keep up with politics, even though lately it's hard because there's so
31:45much going on and it's absolutely the truth.
31:47Anyway, we keep hearing about how we are trillions in debt.
31:50I guess my question is, if we don't control the debt, what eventually happens?
31:54I remember Brian Gumbel used to have a running clock on his show about the
31:58debt. It was supposed to be a big deal back then, and now it's much
32:00worse. I'd be interested in your thoughts.
32:03Yeah. So the amount of money we spend paying back the debt is 14 %
32:09of the budget, and it's 20 % of all tax dollars.
32:12One in five tax dollars goes to the debt.
32:14The CBO estimates it'll go to 20 % of spending by 2036, maybe higher before
32:20then. It's a problem. And like, eventually, it's going to eat up.
32:25We spend more service in the debt now than we spent on Medicare, Medicaid, or
32:30the military. Only Social Security is a bigger line item spent right now than servicing
32:36the debt. And, you know, what my big fear is, is is that we get
32:41decline our credit rating goes down which new york city is going to experience that
32:45very very soon which makes it harder for us to borrow it makes interest rates
32:49much higher we could fall into a recession it means markets could crumble international markets
32:54could crumble we have higher borrowing costs mass inflation really painful austerity measures instead of
33:02really thoughtful and practical ones and lower overall growth rates uh i think that there's
33:08a serious thing and you know what big part of it republicans are to blame
33:12george bush really screwed the pooch george w bush really really screwed the pooch i'm
33:21not saying i don't love his tax cuts i'm not saying that taxes aren't you
33:25know can't be a great thing um but they should have been doing it in
33:30a way that and the iraq war and the afghanistan occupation and all everything there
33:34was a there was an article i was reading from back in 2001 and it
33:39said that our estimation was that we were going to pay off the entire debt
33:43in 2000 rather 2019 we're going to pay off the entire debt by 2014 like
33:48what could have been had george bush not been insane his social security reforms were
33:55smart but most of it was just an utter disaster he did give us alito
33:59too so it wasn't all bad but man george w bush really really hurt generations
34:04of americans with how he did spending which is why i'm so mad at this
34:08president right now for the budget plan which should be more thoughtful when it comes
34:13to spending um because it is serious and if it's only going to get worse
34:16we should try to figure out a way to do it in an intelligent manner
34:20before it has to be done in a painful manner which is what i'm afraid
34:23of um okay last question for the show comes from elliot elliot writes why would
34:28mullen's mullen is the senator turned secretary of homeland security why would mullen leave a
34:34secure senate job for at most something i will last 2 .5 years it doesn't
34:39make sense at all is there some 3d chest here that i'm missing or is
34:42this short -sightedness you know mullen's not my favorite senator although we got a lot
34:48of attention actually it was really funny whenever you could talk to a senator privately
34:53they will if you're friendly with them as i am a few of them they'll
34:56just start complaining about how much media attention other senators get and quite a few
35:01complained about mullen and that he got on the media so much of the time
35:06but mullen wasn't really a breakout star and there was not i don't think that
35:11he was long for the senate to begin with i just don't think that he
35:15had the um constitution of being a senator that you know had a massive bill
35:23that fundamentally changed the government or the way it worked um i don't know if
35:27he didn't like it i don't want to say that but i know as a
35:43head of dhs he'll be able to be a leading member of the trump administration
35:47if he stays up for the full two and a half time two and a
35:49half years he becomes a extremely prominent american and i think he either goes to
35:56the private sector makes a bucket of money giving advice out and doing consulting it's
36:00not the hardest work in the world or he runs for either governor or president
36:06i'm not saying he's going to but there's the opportunity there's a lane you're a
36:11nationwide known figure you're much more prominent being a secretary than you're being a senator
36:16um and those the conversations we're having with rubio right now about could he run
36:21for president obviously he was a senator too um but once rubio started excelling as
36:26his job at secretary of states when we're having the conversation maybe maybe mullen builds
36:32up the integrity of ice does a great job supports illegal immigrants and he's a
36:36a conversation starter you know i don't know maybe certainly it's not out of the
36:41realm of possibility and i think that that's the elevation you look for um and
36:46yeah i mean but listen taking a job as a secretary for trump is a
36:50risky gamble ask pam bondy ask um christy gnome you may not be lasting all
36:58that long i mean he does have a tendency to fire some people so we'll
37:01see i don't know i think that's why mullen did i think it's for higher
37:04aspirations than he has now i know i never met him i've never spoken to
37:07him so i can't say one or the one way or the other but that's
37:10what i would venture to guess if i had to guess okay thank you guys
37:14for listening to this episode if you like this podcast please like and subscribe on
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37:23to grow those numbers so thank you guys i'll see you all wednesday this podcast
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