It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Virginia’s Redistricting Shock: Turnout, Trump Voters & 2026 Warning Signs
4/24/202653 mincomplete
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast.
0:02Guaranteed human. Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Gerdoski.
0:07Thank you guys for being here.
0:08We have our favorite data analyst, Zachary Danini, coming on to talk about everything Virginia.
0:12I'm going to break down Virginia, all the microcosms of what happened, what went wrong,
0:18what we can learn, everything you want to know.
0:20But before that, I have an insane news story that's getting a lot of coverage,
0:24but I don't think people understand how appreciate how important this news story is.
0:30It's about the Southern Poverty Law Center.
0:33Now, for those who don't know what that is, or they just maybe heard the
0:36name in passing, the Southern Poverty Law Center, or SPLC, was started in 1971, and
0:42their goal over the last few decades was to be the prominent monitor of hate
0:46groups throughout the United States.
0:47Because they're the nation's premier hate kind of group watcher, or whatever that would be
0:54called, or monitor of hate groups, their statistics and their data are cited by everybody.
0:59That's why they're important, not so much that what they do is important, but because
1:02the mainstream media gives them credence for whatever they say is actual facts.
1:08Many times, it's not facts at all.
1:10And what they specialize in mostly, especially the last few years, has been monitoring right
1:16-wing hate groups. Well, groups, this is hysterical, groups that were included in the SPLC's
1:24restriction groups, groups that are like the hate groups, groups that are terrible and don't
1:30have any, any, what's the word I'm looking for, groups that are considered too extreme,
1:36too far for anyone to give, any person in polite society to give credence to,
1:42included the immigration restriction group, V -Dare, the phrase white lives matter, was considered a
1:48hate slogan, not a hate group.
1:51The 30 -year -old activist Kate Bennett, who mostly would just show up on liberal
1:55college campuses just to, you know, troll them, she was considered a hate person.
1:59The Constitution Party, which is a very minor third party in America, was considered a
2:06hate group. Phyllis Schlafly's Eagle Forum was considered a hate group.
2:09Gun Owners of America, which is obviously a pro -gun organization, I guess they're probably
2:15more right -wing than maybe the NRA, but they're a prominent pro -gun organization, was
2:19a hate group. The libertarian economic website, lewrockwell .com was a hate group.
2:26The pro -parent group, Moms for Liberty, a group that I've worked with their members
2:30a lot on school board stuff, that was considered a hate group.
2:33Parents Against CRT, Parents Defending Education, another group I know very, very well.
2:37All they really do is sue school districts for more understanding what they're doing to
2:42kind of harm children and parents, but that was considered a hate group.
2:48The 10th Amendment Center, which advocates for states' rights, is a hate group.
2:51The Christian group, Alliance Defending Freedom, they mostly do lawsuits to protect the baker who
2:56doesn't want to make the cake for the gay wedding, or the pizza parlor who
2:59doesn't want to make a pizza for a gay wedding.
3:02That's the group, Alliance Defending Freedom.
3:04A Center for Immigration Studies, a group I cite constantly that gives out data on
3:08immigration and welfare, immigration and crime, other stuff.
3:12They just kind of all just study immigration news.
3:15Federation for Immigration Reform, another group I know well, it's an immigration restrictionist group.
3:20The Remembrance Project, all they do is remember people who were killed by illegal alien
3:26criminals. They don't, that's all they advocate for is the people who were murdered by
3:31illegal aliens. The Pamela Geller, she is a Jewish New Yorker who talks about Islamic
3:38extremism. David Horowitz, another Jew, prominent Jewish American who talks about Islamic extremism, the politician
3:45Tom Tancredo from Colorado, all considered hate groups.
3:48Basically, if you did not approve of CRT, transgender surgery and children, amnesty, open borders,
3:54government -funded abortion on demand, or you fought liberal courts, well, then you were considered
3:59a possible hate group by the SPLC.
4:01The group was so radical, especially when it came to like anti -white politics.
4:06If you were in any shade talking about like, you know, preservation of a majority
4:12white nation or declining birth rates among white people, then you are absolutely looking to
4:18be like, to be a hate watch or a possible hate group by the SPLC.
4:23It was so, the SPLC was so focused on anti -white stuff and not being
4:29like the people who were against white people or hate groups, but promoting anti -whiteness
4:33themselves that their senior fellow, the FB senior fellow of the SPLC, Mark Patoke, used
4:39to keep a handwritten chart noting the decline of the white percentage of America over
4:45the last eight decades. It was in this 2019 documentary.
4:49It's such an utterly bizarre thing.
4:51Look, I'm a data nerd.
4:53I research data all the time.
4:54I do it for fun, just for like, I'm like, hey, I wonder what this
4:57data looks like. I have probably 200 Excel spreadsheets open at any given time, just
5:02tracking random facts and figures for my own amusement sometimes, and I've never put one
5:08on a wall. Like, maybe if I'm doing research for like the book that I
5:11wrote or if I have a long paper, I might put some things in front
5:14of me because I have to cite it constantly, but if you're pasting this on
5:18a wall, it's not because you're using or if you're using it for facts over
5:23long periods of time. It's because it's something you take a great amount of pride
5:26in. And that's what the SPLC did for declining population of non -Latino whites in
5:32the country. It was the SPLC's version of live, laugh, love.
5:36And that matters because no matter what you do for being designated as a hate
5:43group by the SPLC matters, because even though I view them as a comical organization,
5:48because the mainstream media views them as the, you know, the word according to God,
5:56basically. If you are cited as a hate group by the SPLC, you're dismissed in
6:03mainstream media. You are dismissed among independents.
6:06You are dismissed and your opinion is tarred.
6:10You're forever got the scarlet R of being a racist kind of put next to
6:15you. And there's nothing you can do about it.
6:18You're not allowed in polite conversation.
6:21You're considered too extreme. And basically everyone to the right of Mao could be, could
6:26be labeled as a possible hate group, according to the SPLC.
6:29Well, the story, the interesting story about it, not just who they are, but the
6:33interesting story that came out is the Justice Department had a shocking and groundbreaking charge
6:38against the SPLC. The New York Times, which by the way, you could tell the
6:42writer Devlin Barrett, I believe is his name, was openly weeping while he was writing
6:46the story the way that he was writing it.
6:48It was because he still views the SPLC as a force of good in the
6:51world instead of a joke of an organization.
6:53This is what he said, quote, they are accused of defrauding donors by using their
6:59money to secretly pay informants inside extremist organizations, end quote.
7:03He is putting it mildly, by the way.
7:05What he is saying is the mild version of the truth.
7:07He is watering down the allegations that were actually made.
7:10At a news conference announcing the charges, Todd Blanche, the acting attorney general said from
7:162014 to 2023, the group made payments tolling more than $3 million to people who
7:23were affiliated with extremist organizations like the Ku Klux Klan and the National Socialist Party
7:28of America. That's the Nazi Party of America.
7:30The law center, he added, was doing, quote, the exact opposite of what it's told
7:36its donors it was doing, not dismantling extremism, but funding it.
7:40One of their sources said, helped, sorry, one of the SPLC sources helped plan the
7:45Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville.
7:47That's the famous good people on both sides allegation that was completely false against Trump
7:53in 2017. Between 2015 and 2023, that informant was paid $270 ,000.
8:00That is a full -time free job just being paid by the SPLC.
8:05The $3 million went to people who were part of the KKK, the United Clans
8:11of America, Unite the Right, the National Alliance, National Socialist Movement, Aryan Nations -affiliated Sadistic
8:18Souls Motorcycle Club. That group needs a better name.
8:21National Socialist Party of America and America Front.
8:25Those are those people where it's those guys in khakis and polo shirts who wear,
8:30like, shields and masks and do those stupid marches.
8:35It's such a joke of an organization.
8:37The person linked to the KKK applied for the group to take part in the
8:42Adopt a Highway Program. During the course of a litigation, known payments, that person exceeded
8:50$3 ,500. Basically, the SPLC was paying people to create instances within these groups that
8:58would flare up in the media and bring attention to them.
9:01No one's a part of the KKK anymore.
9:04I mean, like, seriously, we're a country of 340 million people.
9:08The number of people who are active members of the KKK could fit in a
9:11booth at Arby's. There are people who have, you know, delusions that they are related
9:17to Elvis in greater number than KKK members.
9:19This is a joke. This is to prop up these organizations to make them look
9:24like they are relevant. Think of how many social media and high -profile events took
9:29place over the last 10 years that were supposed to make Americans scared about the
9:33rise of white supremacy when the leaders of those events and the organizers were being
9:39paid to orchestrate those groups' events by the same people that were investigating them.
9:45It needs to be said to how much white supremacy we've seen on the right
9:50that has been coordinated by the left, organized and coordinated by the left.
9:55And then the media runs around saying, look at this.
9:57Do you remember, and this is an SPLC, this is a different group, but do
10:01you remember back in 2021 when Glenn Youngkin was running for governor and a bunch
10:04of people showed up with like tiki torches to say that at one of his
10:08events, basically to say that he's affiliated with these, you know, right -wing racists and
10:12one of the people in like the tiki torches and the white supremacy group was
10:18like a black guy. Another one was like a kind of chubby girl.
10:22And the whole thing was paved by the Lincoln Project.
10:24That's what this is. It is the Lincoln Project's efforts to smear Glenn Youngkin, but
10:30it's on a larger scale.
10:31It's a weaponized scale for the broader right wing.
10:35If the FBI is going to spend the next two and a half years doing
10:38nothing besides trying to break apart and bankrupt, hopefully this militarized left -wing organization that
10:46props up fake right -wing extremists, then And I will take away all my criticism
10:52I've ever, you know, put on Cash Patel.
10:54This is so important. And if the SPLC especially can declare bankruptcy from this entire
11:00thing, that will be well worth every penny spent.
11:04Okay, now let's go to the main topic of Virginia.
11:09That was some good news with SPLC.
11:10Let's talk about some bad news.
11:13On a personal note, because I've done a lot of campaigns over the last 20
11:16years, I have a philosophy when you're doing a campaign.
11:20If you do a campaign and you lose by a million votes, like it's such
11:24a wide margin, you know what?
11:26I say go have a nice dinner, go get a drink, go get some Italian
11:29food or make some Italian food.
11:30There's nothing you could have done to win.
11:33And that's okay because that's what happens.
11:36Landslides happen. It happens for both Republicans and Democrats.
11:40And in a blowout year, it's bigger than you.
11:43You could have done nothing to change what is happening, right?
11:47So in 2010, the Tea Party wave or in 2018 in the Democratic wave, it's
11:51not you. It's the year.
11:52It's the cycle. It's everything about you.
11:54Everything bigger than you. But when you lose a nail -biter, you need to rethink
11:59everything you should have done.
12:00A nail -biter is what hurts.
12:02A blowout doesn't hurt. The election in Virginia, where Democrats outspent Republicans two to one,
12:08by more than two to one, while the national Republicans have a massive cash advantage
12:14against Democrats, is an instance where you say something is going wrong.
12:19When James Blair, who was in the White House, he's now affiliated with the campaign
12:24arm of the Trump administration, when he was on CNN and asked if Mega Inc.
12:31would spend in the midterms.
12:33This is a bag of ink, by the way, is the president's super PAC.
12:36It has hundreds of millions of dollars.
12:39If they wanted to spend enough money to even the competitiveness or the competitive nature
12:45between Democrats and Republicans in Virginia, it would not have even been 10 % of
12:51their overall budget. Like, that's how much money they have.
12:55When they asked, when he was asked if they will spend it in the midterms,
12:59he said, I expect he will spend it in the race.
13:03My question to James is, can he spend on a time machine and go back
13:07in time to protect four winnable seats?
13:11Meanwhile, the GOP is spending $10 million in Indiana to oust state senators who did
13:18not vote to redraw a single congressional district.
13:21I want everyone to break out their pens and papers and think to themselves, what
13:26is more valuable, one or four?
13:29Because apparently not everyone understands that mathematics.
13:34Turning Point Action, they said, Andrew, who worked for Charlie Kirk, he said on the
13:41Charlie Kirk show that they went, Turning Point Action went to a bunch of D
13:46.C. groups to put an effort together to poll voters and to chase ballots and
13:50to make sure people showed up, to train people.
13:53And they were told, no, they were told to basically kick dust.
13:56They weren't, no one was funding it.
13:58What are, what are all these donors spending their money on that?
14:01We are, the Republican Party has so much money right now.
14:06The Republican institutions have so much money right now.
14:10Sean Spicer, former communications person for the first term of the White House, he was
14:16on fire because not only was he blasting Glenn Youngkin, who did close to nothing,
14:21the very popular former governor of Virginia, who was governor 30 seconds ago, who should
14:27have been out there campaigning aggressively, did absolutely nothing to stop this.
14:32But he asked, why didn't any money go to grassroots organizations?
14:36Grassroots organizations who were fighting with literally just volunteers.
14:40They didn't have any institutional effort to fund them.
14:43Let's go into the actual numbers.
14:46The referendum passed by, as of right now, there's still a few thousand votes to
14:50cast, but it passed by three points, 51 .5 to 48 .5.
14:55There are about 180 ,000 people as of the recording of this podcast who voted
15:02for Glenn Youngkin in 2021 and did not vote in this referendum.
15:09And it's not they didn't vote for, no, they didn't vote.
15:11And there's more people today in Virginia than there were in 2021.
15:16And it's not because Democrats outran the 2021 election numbers.
15:21They didn't. This referendum so far has fewer votes than Terry McAuliffe got when he
15:26lost. Way fewer votes than Spanberger received.
15:29Hundreds of thousands of fewer votes than Spanberger received.
15:32In fact, the no vote only got 40 ,000 more votes than Winsome Sears when
15:38she was pulverized by Abigail Spanberger and lost by 15 points.
15:43The no campaign got fewer votes than Jason Meares did when he was running for
15:47attorney general for re -election and for attorney general.
15:51And that was 2025. Yeah, there's more votes to count.
15:55But as of right now, if we were waking up the day after the election
15:59and the no vote had as many votes as Jason Meares had, we would say
16:03the election is too close to call.
16:04We'd say we don't know how it's going to show up.
16:08It's baffling. So much was left on the table.
16:13So much was left and, and.
16:17And they just dropped the ball.
16:18There's no other way to say this.
16:20They dropped the ball. And with those four House seats, it is virtually impossible for
16:28Republicans to keep the House.
16:29I mean, really, it is virtually impossible.
16:31The VRA decision is kicking the can down the road over and over.
16:35Only one state is taking the effort to push back their redistricting in their early
16:40primary cycle, and that's Alabama.
16:41And that would be a maximum of one, maybe two seats.
16:44That's not enough. Florida might be redistricting another two seats, two, three.
16:50I mean, it would be kind of politically not thoughtful to go after more than
16:56that. There's three seats the Republicans can probably gain in Florida.
16:58But this entire redistricting effort that was supposed to gain Republicans a dozen or so
17:04seats, that the White House was reaching out to legislators, to influencers, and saying, don't
17:11worry, the Democrats can't counteract this.
17:16Somebody needs to be held accountable for what has been going on, and we will
17:20never really understand why the money, if we have $100 million to spend on John
17:26Cornyn, when it was almost absolutely certain he was going to go to a runoff
17:31no matter what, why didn't we have $20 million to spend in Virginia to save
17:36four House seats? Most of the states swung right from the 2024 election, not just
17:40the 2025 election where Republicans had a blowout loss, but for 2024 when Harris won
17:45by just six points, except for the heavily Asian and Latino parts of Northern Virginia.
17:51That swung far to left.
17:53Zachary Danini and me are going to talk about that a little later.
17:55But the no vote even lost five of the 16 counties that voted for Yunkin
18:00and Spanberger. Those are people that should have been primed to vote for the no
18:04vote. I mean, they had just voted for Glenn Yunkin not that long ago, and
18:08a lot of them had voted for Jason Meares.
18:10Now, late in the evening on Wednesday, there was two developments, one from the RNC.
18:13They said they actually spent $40 million, but not from their official committee because they
18:19didn't want it to be an R versus D election in a blue state.
18:24They said that they spent it, they sent it to different through various groups.
18:28But my question is, to whom?
18:31Because the grassroots are saying over and over again, we didn't receive the money.
18:35And I believe that. I don't think there was, I don't know if there was
18:39a ballot chase effort. I haven't heard about it, and I've asked, did they just
18:43do commercials? Because if they called consultants to do commercials, consultants love that.
18:48Commercial, making commercials is super easy, very expensive.
18:51And consultants, they get a cut from the commercials, from the ad buys.
18:55They get a percentage. Most of my campaigns I've ever done in my life, I've
18:59never gotten that percentage. I've never even asked for it.
19:02The two or three where I've gotten it as part of the deal, I didn't
19:06even fight for it, honestly.
19:07Honestly, I made more money off those ad buys than I even made off the
19:11work I did. So I know how profitable the ad buys are.
19:16That's why they all want to just do commercials and not the hard work.
19:19The other breaking news story, though, is that a Republican -appointed circuit court judge ruled
19:24that the referendum is unconstitutional.
19:26They refused to certify the election.
19:28Now, that's in federal court.
19:30The Supreme Court of the United States already kind of dismissed any challenges to the
19:34California referendum. Are they going to get involved in the Virginia one after they didn't
19:39get involved in the California one?
19:40I kind of have a very hard time believing that.
19:42I don't know. I mean, the Supreme Court is the Supreme Court.
19:44They do what they want to do.
19:46So I can't make a prediction there.
19:47Former Attorney General of Virginia, Ken Cuccinelli, has come forward and talked about all the
19:51legal battles that are gearing up in Virginia on four different constitutional challenges to the
19:57Virginia state constitution. Those cases will go to the Virginia Supreme Court where they're challenging
20:04the legality of the referendum.
20:06Here's why I have also a very tough time kind of believing that that legal
20:11case will work. As I said, with the circuit court judge, it's because the Supreme
20:15Court already didn't ignore the California case.
20:19But with the state Supreme Court of Virginia, the legislature hires and rehires the state
20:27Supreme Court. So the judges who are going to have to deal with a Democratic
20:32legislator for their reappointment to the court, they're going to have to rule against this
20:38major legislation that they just fought for and then go back and say, can I
20:43please have my job again?
20:44I mean, maybe they'll just hope that enough of those judges will either, A, retire
20:48or, B, that those legislators will lose in that time.
20:52I mean, the Speaker of the House is 80 -something years old.
20:55She's not going to live forever, and maybe they feel like, hey, we'll outlast her.
21:00I just, it's a really big, it's a really big roll of the dice that
21:03I'm not super confident in.
21:04I'm not a legal analyst.
21:06I don't, you know, I don't, I don't know, but I don't, I'm not super
21:09comfortable. I don't, I wouldn't, that's not what I would have bet my time and
21:12money on. I would have bet my time and money on outreach and giving to
21:15the grassroots and doing more outreach and for this election.
21:18But with me today to break down all the data is my favorite political analyst.
21:22He's so smart, Zachary Danini, he's coming up next.
21:25Stay tuned. With me on today's episode is my favorite data analyst, Zachary Danini.
21:29I'm going to make a bloopers reel one day for this podcast.
21:32Zachary, thank you so much for coming to this podcast.
21:34How are you? I'm pretty good.
21:37Thanks for having me on.
21:38Fun night last night. Yeah.
21:40So, Zachary, we were talking right before the election came in, and you said to
21:43me something really. you said if they end up losing by two to three points
21:48it's going to really hurt given they didn't estimate investment in and they lost by
21:54three maybe three and a half that you said ultimately it's going to be well
21:57it's about three points though as of right now they are they last as of
22:01today as of wednesday they let they lost by a smaller amount than jason miara's
22:07got for his attorney general's race yep um well so yes got less than jason
22:12miara's did there seem to be a lot on the field what okay let's just
22:16explain the the the map to begin with where did the yes vote the vote
22:21for changing the congressional lines where did it see the largest surge in its favor
22:25from previous elections yeah so i think there have kind of been two worlds in
22:31u .s politics recently there was the before the 2024 presidential election and then there
22:36was the 2024 presidential election and in that 2024 presidential election trump did way better
22:43than we're used to seeing with asian and hispanic and to a lesser extent black
22:47voters especially uh you know in urban areas in virginia and last night those asian
22:54and uh hispanic voters shifted really really hard back towards the yes campaign uh and
22:59kind of powered it over the finish line now i mean it's not directly linked
23:05to donald trump of course but it is kind of linked to donald trump so
23:08motivating factors are really hard to understand when it comes to these elections was turnout
23:14very high in those areas uh it wasn't it wasn't especially high um and going
23:19into the night i think the reason why i started to think that no had
23:23a chance here or at the very least was gonna make it interesting which which
23:27no did um was because turnout was so much higher in in red areas than
23:32blue areas um this is all usually these one -off special elections random tuesday in
23:38the middle of april uh republicans haven't been turning out very well for them the
23:42last four years you know trump isn't on the ballot uh you know etc etc
23:46um but yesterday uh republicans really did turn out well um democrats and especially in
23:53majority minority areas didn't turn out as well but the voters who came out really
23:59really backed the redistricting referendum and i think that i mean based upon the polling
24:04from state navigate and from the washington post it looks like independence broke against the
24:09referendum they voted no yeah pretty hard right that's how it gets so close in
24:13virginia yeah because the washington virginia beach voted majority no other areas other state cities
24:19and precincts flipped against against the vote um what here's what i don't understand is
24:25for republicans having this big big turnout they had fewer votes than as i said
24:30jason miara's yeah 180 000 fewer votes than glenn yeah i think it depends how
24:37you're talking about big turnout right like for instance this is huge turnout for like
24:41this random special election it's like not big turnout compared to like you know gubernatorial
24:46elections right it was i mean it was a little bit lower than 2020 25
24:50uh levels on the republican side and then it was a good amount lower on
24:54the democratic side but um i was still pretty impressed by the by the level
24:59of turnout i saw right again it's just this random one -off special election how
25:03did suburban college educated areas vote because they're they're i mean a lot of republicans
25:10have just completely cut them out so there's no point they'll never vote for anything
25:14but they are the people who voted for spanberger and then jason miara's and the
25:19governor's in the in the last general election yeah trump did pretty well with spanberger
25:24miara's voters right at these like a high education kind of white suburban and exurban
25:30areas in in nova uh had bred big enough shifts for for the referendum to
25:36go down it was like i believe seven or eight points and some of the
25:39whitest areas in northern virginia towards no from from trump and trump lost the state
25:45by six right so seven or eight that's that's enough for for it to go
25:48down um where where you know where they didn't get that shift was in majority
25:52minority areas um yes yes got biden numbers there and they didn't so yes got
25:57biden numbers in the white exurbs is what you're saying it's all right in the
26:02majority minority majority minority areas how did the black turnout because obama was literally i
26:08mean obama yeah basically did they have a large turn on the black areas uh
26:13it wasn't it wasn't great um it was it was all right it was like
26:18somewhere between it wasn't as bad as uh like nova turnout for the most part
26:24during the day um but it was worse than republican turnout in a lot of
26:28areas um but the black voters who came out really did back the referendum i
26:32think trump made some gains there those were kind of lost it got you know
26:36biden numbers with black see here's what i kind of have been grappling with with
26:41all these special elections and the governor's election the new york city well the new
26:44york mayor's election doesn't count but like the new jersey election is is it that
26:49as i mean with the trump with the 2024 election there was such high turnout
26:54from um minorities and they voted for republicans yeah a lot of the republican vote
27:00is concentrated among extremely low propensity first -time voters exactly who we wouldn't be seeing
27:06so it's hard to measure these percentages when the raw numbers are so significantly down
27:11is it Linton era level support, or is it just enthusiastic minorities are the Democrats?
27:20Does that make sense? So it's a fantastic question, because this is what I grapple
27:24with every night. It's like, okay, so we're only getting a subset of voters out,
27:31right? And this election and the gubernatorial election were like pretty high turnout as things
27:37go, right? It's not like a random state legislative special election, which can be hard
27:41to analyze. You know, it's not like the midterms are going to have that much
27:45higher turnout than this referendum election or the gubernatorial election.
27:49Maybe in battleground Senate races, it will be all by, you know, five or 10%.
27:53But these aren't super low turnout elections.
27:57That being said, every time the turnout gets lower for minorities, it means Democrats are
28:02going to do better in the percent of the two -way vote share they get
28:06versus Republicans, right? Because you're getting the hyper -partisan Black voters, the hyper -partisan Hispanic
28:12voters who come out in these elections tend to be more liberal and more just
28:18like ingrained in the Democratic Party establishment.
28:20It's the people who are less into politics, the young non -white men who just
28:26don't care that much about who the president is that really broke towards Trump and
28:31like really backed him in 2024.
28:33Yeah, and it's also, I was talking to a Black Democrat, this is now in
28:372024, but about how, about the efforts, it was actually Van Jones, it was on
28:43CNN, about how Black efforts to do Black turnout.
28:47We have seen a depression in Black turnout across the board really since 2020, right?
28:53Black turnout, not what it was in the, and obviously when Obama was on the
28:57ballot, it is not what it was in 2020, partially because there were certain civil,
29:04civic organizations that turned Black people out, namely souls to the polls, that really got,
29:10as those Black people have aged and passed away, as everyone does, young people have
29:17not replaced those older people.
29:18Those churches have hollowed out in the same way that every church is basically hollowed
29:23out to a certain degree, especially from like 30 years ago or whatnot.
29:27I wonder if that is why, like, unless you have a Joe Rogan and a
29:34Theo Vaughn and a, you know, and you have all these non -political entities that
29:39reach people who are not typical voters, unless you have them talking and talking and
29:43talking about an election and saying the vibes are right, do this, the economy is
29:46whatever. That's probably, I wonder if that's the only, and I know you can't ask
29:50this question, but is that the only way to reach those voters?
29:53Like, how do you reach those voters that are so hard to, and that Trump
29:57only managed like they did once?
29:58So, okay. So, so first of all, I think, like, just from a math perspective,
30:03I, like, let's think of, like, this very simple idea where we have the core
30:07Black base, which is, like, 90 % Democratic, and then you have, like, the other
30:13Black voters who, like, don't vote as much who are 70 % Democratic, even though
30:17they're way less Democratic, right?
30:19And the more the, like, you know, normal people who don't really care about politics
30:23that much turn out, it drops how well Democrats do with Black voters in percent.
30:29It still means that Democrats are gaining votes from those voters coming out.
30:34What happened in 2024 was Black turnout was lower than in 2020 and Trump did
30:40better, right? So it wasn't an either or, right?
30:43It was, it was lower turnout and Trump, Trump did better.
30:46And, you know, there's a lot of talk about, you know, from both sides, and
30:50so much money is going to go into this in the next 60 years, right?
30:53Like, who's going to win the, you know, young non -white men who, like, identify
30:57as, like, moderate, right? Um, I do think a lot of it, especially for the
31:03less politically engaged individuals, is, is just going to be an ebb and flow.
31:07It's, it's going to be Biden was president.
31:09There was a lot of inflation.
31:11Now Trump's president, the labor market isn't great for young people.
31:15It's not Trump's fault, right?
31:18He, he said it off, you know, what are you, what is Trump supposed to
31:21do about, like, AI squeezing out, right, the labor market for young people, right?
31:24I mean, yeah, come on, that's ridiculous.
31:26Maybe, you know, you could say it's its fault now that maybe gas prices are
31:29higher. But, but still, there is always going to be Mac, like, big level things
31:35that are happening that politicians can't control that are going to cause these voters to
31:41often prefer the out party if things are going poorly economically.
31:44And that's also why I think, I think about this all the time.
31:47We have, it was very uncommon for the House of Representatives to change hands for
31:55almost the entire 20th century.
31:56In the beginning of the 20th century, it was Republican dominated.
32:00And then the middle, it was almost Democrat, democratically dominated.
32:04And at the end, it was Republican again.
32:05We have lived since 2006, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024, or
32:18change elections. That is how disappointed Americans are in general.
32:25Yeah. How much they're swinging with the winds.
32:28And I just, I feel like those voters are the ones who just say, you
32:32know, it's true. Who's ever in charge.
32:34Yeah. So my theory about this too is like, okay, so, so you have like
32:39this Gen Z people. especially a lot of whom aren't super interested in politics and
32:43could get their political news from like tiktok or social media and social media is
32:48yeah social media is a very negative place i don't know if anyone's noticed that
32:53but me but you're right that's how a lot of these algorithms are optimized right
32:56it's uh you know it's it's based on instant gratification you know stuff like that
33:01i think so rachel uh jen faza who uh uh does the up and up
33:05which she does like a lot of like talking sessions with young voters you know
33:09a great quote from her is why are we surprised that the generation raised on
33:13instant gratification are like crazy swing voters who who go back and forth um and
33:18i i think you get a lot of those uh factors are amplified with with
33:22non -white young voters right now the the older non -white voters are are swinging
33:27back and forth less than the younger ones are okay so last question particularly with
33:32the map of virginia we'll ask too so the rural areas look like they turned
33:36out that area in the ninth district the ones in appalachia they have pretty strong
33:41turnout for republicans the the uh coastline looked actually decently strong for yeah it says
33:47well yeah yeah where where was the where was the area republicans fell the shorts
33:52was the richmond suburbs was it was it nova yeah i i think the area
33:56i mean it's it's it's tough to win the the you know these states right
34:02it's spanberger plus 15 biden plus 10 harris plus six that was like really bad
34:06right where could republicans have done better i think uh honestly i think the answer
34:13is they just needed even another five or ten percent or something from the from
34:16the rural areas right right like you you can't you can't win elections based on
34:22turnout uh without something extraordinary happening turnout wise we saw something mediumly powerful happening with
34:30turnout yesterday this was a more red electorate than the 2024 presidential election by a
34:35good amount it wasn't extraordinary right they needed a more red electorate than the 2021
34:40gubernatorial election uh for for the no campaign because virginia has turned in more blues
34:45in 2021 yeah it's a it's a blue state right and and this isn't a
34:49great environment for uh for republicans right and 2021 was a very good environment for
34:54republicans um people disapproved of joe biden that that sways their votes now trump's approval
35:00president trump's approval is probably minus 15 to 20 it's not as good of an
35:04environment what glenn youngkin would have won his election in that map in the turnout
35:08yesterday turn out the turnout uh yeah yeah he he would have he would have
35:12won i would say the people who came out yesterday um were were devoted voted
35:17for youngkin together so okay so my last question is the one question is how
35:21i mean i don't think you know the answer to this but i'm gonna ask
35:24it anyway how much did doge play into into this is this what is a
35:28talking point was that no there was yeah like the areas that i know to
35:34have the largest concentration of federal workers and and even federal contractors the the like
35:39white suburbs in northern virginia like i mean trump trump did pretty well i mean
35:44sorry noted pretty well there um it was right it's it's more like your you
35:50know indian voter who like uh has some like tech job that uh voted for
35:55trump in 2024 uh who then came out and voted yes yesterday really so where
36:01there was a lot of federal workers in those precincts they did the no vote
36:04yeah i mean i was looking at it this morning the no vote did well
36:08and and in white areas in nova it was just these massive swings went in
36:13the opposite direction of 2024 in the asian and hispanic areas wow workers including a
36:19lot that's why they i couldn't believe how bad the no vote did in loudon
36:23county yeah i mean and you look at the precinct map it's the it's like
36:27the it's the indian areas and the hispanic areas i couldn't believe how well trump
36:31did there in in 2024 and it's it's right back can i tell you a
36:37story okay wait really quickly please please so jd vance was texting me election night
36:412024 and he's like how's it looking and uh we had they always have a
36:46saying on the jd campaign uh the only thing that jd hates worse than bad
36:51news is good news so yeah um if you like give him too much good
36:54news he's like don't tell me that's probably not true yeah so i'm texting him
36:58and i'm like exit polls look good he's like exit polls are bs okay fine
37:01yeah a black turnout is down one percent where are you getting that from that's
37:05probably a lot like he's like it's all negative and then loud comes in and
37:09i forget what number trump didn't they like 46 percent or something like that 44
37:13percent whatever i think it was 57 40 was the first drop which was down
37:18like nine points or something from 2020 in margin uh yeah but i it ends
37:23in like 42 or something like that whatever yeah yeah yeah he was over 40
37:27was the point and i just and after he was dismissing me dismissing something to
37:32me i just said okay laden's in you got 42 percent there it's that is
37:37that is a reflection on the entire north uh eastern seaboard in pennsylvania and in
37:43uh other states you're the next vice president united states yeah hear back from him
37:48for a while like it was like complete stuff like i was like i'm not
37:53joking you are the next vice president and i just texted like everyone's calling and
37:58texting me i said no it's like this election is done with this it's over
38:01yeah so when when no didn't get i thought like no would get 44 45
38:06percent for them to finish under 40 it was like this is a rough night
38:09yeah it just goes to show really how hard the republican areas turned out given
38:13how poorly they did loud and they still made it yeah right if you would
38:17have told me those loud and unfair facts numbers i would have said it was
38:20it was completely over for now right um and i guess this gets back to
38:24the original point which was so yeah so democrats outspent republicans about like 64 to
38:2933 million dollars in this race um i think a lot of people have been
38:34criticizing uh national republicans for not spending more what i do want to remind everyone
38:40is they spent a lot in the last two weeks of that 33 million they
38:44spent it smart and hard at the end and two weeks ago i didn't see
38:49a single person saying national republicans needed to spend more in this race i i
38:53had people telling me this is double digits you know i wasn't really paying attention
38:57to it i i made my prediction on my x account on monday i said
39:01yes i was gonna win by four and not a chance and the top comment
39:04was yes is gonna win by tens isn't gonna be close so i think yeah
39:08i mean national republicans i'm sure like absolutely kicking themselves over this but you know
39:12hindsight is 2020 i i didn't see anyone saying that but that's here's the problem
39:18and this is a general problem with the republicans right now is when a district
39:22when a state is not considered competitive as virginia isn't for federal elections like u
39:27.s senate races and nor virginia isn't for congressional races republicans just drop them like
39:32they just don't do any outreach whatsoever i've done so many elections in new york
39:36city where they were like you're the first republican i've ever met in my life
39:39and you need for those recent immigrants you need coalition building and yeah money and
39:47energy spent in sometimes multilingual mailers you know the advertisements and in multilingual newspapers i
39:56don't know if i don't know if that and yeah certainly that energy needed to
40:00spend if he spent throughout glenn youngkin's entire governorship he really was mia i don't
40:06care what he says he didn't do anything to help this you know fight going
40:09on television as a guest is not you know not enough so so what else
40:13on that is is on the flip side right you have okay so like right
40:18now the dnc is i think in like five million dollars of debt right and
40:21then their latest filing they were yeah democrats were sending money for like idaho state
40:26ledge races in 2024 right i mean jamie harrison and amy mcgrath burned you know
40:31160 million dollars set it on fire right to lose by by double digits um
40:36they're they're it's it's a it's a tough happy medium to hit right it's it's
40:42you you want to spend money smart but you also you know don't want to
40:46say oh you know you've no chance here you know virginia's gone new york city's
40:50gone stuff like that because uh it's tough when there's a winnable election there but
40:55here's okay i do have another question now for you so in the poll i
40:59had on i had chas natty come on this podcast we talked about this and
41:02he said that it was a d plus 15 electorate that didn't turn out to
41:07be true yeah i mean not at all in this sense i so i uh
41:11yeah i mean i woke up tuesday morning i you know got had breakfast and
41:16i opened my laptop and i was like you know checking numbers calling counties and
41:21i was just flooded with bad dem turnout and good republican turnout the whole morning
41:24uh and it equalized a little bit throughout the day the democratic turnout did pick
41:29up during the day if not it would be a one and a half to
41:32two point race right now um but uh the electorate ended up being uh you
41:38know maybe three points better for no than i think chas and i thought it
41:41would be i assume he came on about a week ago or something like yeah
41:44he's not last week i'm not and this is this is not this my point
41:47is not to attack chas because he's a very no no i mean chas is
41:51fantastic my bigger question is this if they are overestimating this election and the democratic
41:59turnout in this election is there any chance this is what republicans are saying now
42:03spinning this is there any chance that they are democrat pollsters are overstating the national
42:09environment by two to three points as well yeah i i think that's a great
42:13question and i'll pair it with another question i was asked two weeks ago which
42:17is after the democrats won wisconsin by 22 and i said oh are we massively
42:21understating the environment right right so i i think you know it's like as i
42:26said it's like social media is so dominant now the vibes are just so hard
42:30week to week and and i think yeah that's totally possible there's a chance that
42:33there's just like a fire set yeah under the gop it's been so long if
42:39it feels like years ago right yeah it's like yeah it's hard to estimate turnout
42:44it's just really hard because when you ask people whether they're going to vote they're
42:48like oh yeah like i'm coming out right no no one tells you like no
42:51actually like i'm going to feel a little tired after i i pick timmy up
42:54from soccer and i'm going to sit on my couch instead of instead of voting
42:58for you know john hustet or something like that i always tell i always tell
43:01political people like you will never understand how many people will tell you they'll tell
43:05you to your face in the most earnest way i voted i voted and you
43:08look at their voter file and they haven't voted in years but they believe it
43:11because they watch the news or they comment on facebook and they think that's the
43:15same thing as actually showing what voting yeah yeah yeah that's what it gets back
43:19to right i think the last big presidential election um that first week of early
43:24vote in arizona and nevada registered republicans who had voted in like one of the
43:29last four you know federal elections were coming off their you know coming off their
43:33couch and voting at way higher rates in the demo ones, right?
43:37And to be honest, we won't know what the turnout dynamics are going to be
43:41during 2026 until it's, you know, the second week of October and we start getting
43:46those numbers coming in. All right, Zachary, you are brilliant.
43:49Wish we'll go to follow you and you should follow Zachary.
43:52Just Zachary Danini, first name, last name.
43:54I wish I had a shorter last name.
43:56It would be easier to tell people are to follow me.
43:58No, it's a great Italian name.
44:00You should take pride in it.
44:01Zachary, thank you for this podcast.
44:03I'll talk to you hopefully soon.
44:04Yeah, thank you for having me on.
44:05Enjoy it as always. All right, now it's time for Ask Me Anything.
44:09If you want a part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email me ryan at
44:11numbersgamepodcast .com. That's ryan at numbers, plural numbersgamepodcast .com.
44:16I got a couple of questions that you guys asked today.
44:19First, my buddy, Peter Fumo.
44:21I think I pronounced your name correctly this time, Peter.
44:24You did email me to tell me I mispronounced it every other time that you've
44:28emailed me. Okay, you're right.
44:30I'm a big fan of RDS, Ron DeSantis.
44:33He's smart, competent, and effective.
44:34He strikes me as well as someone who would increase deportations by choking up opportunities
44:38for illegal immigrants, which is to me the most effective long -term strategy.
44:43It's hard, though, to get past his poor performance in 2024.
44:47What do you think are his biggest problems going into the future?
44:51Should he run for president again, and are they solvable?
44:55Oh, gosh. Okay. Part of it, listen, history is littered with great men who never
45:05become president, right? Littered with it.
45:08There are a million people who could have been great presidents and were never elected.
45:13So there is that. I think the problem that Ron DeSantis has is just the
45:20calendar. I mean, it's just the truth.
45:25You really have one window to run for president, and I think Ron's was in
45:312024. I don't think he has the same window because in 2028, we're going to
45:36have a bunch of new governors and new senators around.
45:38There'll be shiny pennies. Obviously, we have Marco Rubio and J .D.
45:41Vance. They're interesting. People are looking at them.
45:44Let's say we lose in 2028.
45:46Let's say Democrats win. We have 2032, and we have a favorable map and all
45:49the rest of it. By 2032, DeSantis will have been out of office for years
45:53to stay relevant for that long a time, even if you are smart, even if
45:59you are charismatic, even if you have followers and supporters and donors.
46:03It's hard. Ask Nikki Haley.
46:07It is difficult to stay relevant for that long without being in public office.
46:13And it's so funny. I just had a conversation with a reporter about Jasmine Crockett,
46:19and the reporter was like, well, she plans on staying relevant.
46:22I was like, good luck.
46:24Politicians are famous and interesting because they were elected in office.
46:30They are not talented in the sense that they are entertainers.
46:33They're not real celebrities. Brad Pitt could never make another movie again and be famous
46:37for the rest of his life.
46:38Same thing with Julia Roberts.
46:40Same thing with Jennifer Aniston or George Clooney.
46:42They could be famous for the rest of their lives and never do another thing.
46:49Politicians are famous like real housewives are famous.
46:51You're famous for doing the one thing, and when you stop doing the one thing,
46:54you certainly become less famous.
46:57Yeah, you can still make a living.
46:59You could be Bethany Frankel and sell things on Instagram, but you're not going to
47:04be at that same level of fame.
47:07And maybe that's not what you want.
47:08But if you want to be relevant, good luck.
47:10You're not a singer. You're not an actor.
47:11You're not a performer. You're a politician.
47:14So I just think Ron DeSantis is going to have difficulty staying relevant for as
47:20long as he needs to for the window of opportunity to really hold up and
47:24open up. OK, next question comes from Dan Cumberland.
47:27I don't really say people's last names.
47:29So, Dan, I apologize if I get you in trouble with anybody.
47:31Ryan is Ryan is our district to liberal here.
47:36He is in Kansas in the third congressional district, which is a which has gone
47:42for the Democrats a number of times recently.
47:45Is it too liberal here to defeat our representative who has a voting record that
47:48is right in line with other radicals?
47:51She continues to get reelected very easily.
47:53We as Kansas have an infamous track record of electing Democrats to be our governor.
47:57Give me the bad news.
47:59Dan, I'm great at giving bad news.
48:03Um, I know the area actually very well because I've done school board elections in,
48:09um, in parts of, of Eastern Kansas, especially in the suburbs of Kansas city.
48:13Uh, they are very, very much.
48:17I mean, they could be from Colorado.
48:18Some of those voters, they're so far to left.
48:21And unless you break that district up and it's kind of messy because you have
48:25another big city, Kansas city, you have Wichita and you have Topeka all kind of
48:31in a line. So to break up the map makes it look like an insane
48:34person did it. Not impossible to do.
48:37You can, you can break that map up, but in the current district, you really
48:41can't, but there are a number of States that elect people in opposite parties for
48:46governor. Governor is not the same as Senator or house member or president.
48:51New Hampshire and Vermont have Republican governors, super popular Republican governors.
48:55Uh, Kansas just has a democratic governor.
48:59So does Kentucky. It's very different when it comes to the governor's races.
49:03versus the federal races so it's possible to elect a republican governor but they would
49:08reneed they would need to redraw that district in order to be competitive in that
49:13seat the same is just gonna be true for the omaha district over in nebraska
49:16your neighboring state too many liberals in such a like a tight area something is
49:21true for salt lake city in utah um the only cities that really have broken
49:26with that and it's not like that yet it is over in idaho uh idaho
49:29boise is not so liberal they can only elect a democrat but the other ones
49:33are and uh that's just going to be a feature of it we have there's
49:37a lot of college educated whites who are very very liberal and they live in
49:41these clustered communities um by like overland park and stuff over in over in eastern
49:45kansas and they're just going to keep the district democrats so no right now you
49:49can't win unless you split the district is it impossible no but it's it's it's
49:53kind of difficult uh we'll see if there's a republican governor i think i think
49:57my pack is actually going to endorse for a republican governor in that state and
50:02get involved because we should because kansas is winnable okay last question for the episode
50:07it is from michael he says i've listened to every single podcast since the day
50:10you started michael with all my heart i really mean thank you i haven't looked
50:15at all but spencer pratt has does he have any chance of being at the
50:20mayor's race in los angeles i live in las vegas and even though this obviously
50:25is in our state of nevada i always feel like poor california policies bleed over
50:28into our city whether they it's gas prices or different democratic politicians just blindly following
50:33cali uh ones are doing i don't think he's the change we need but it's
50:38interesting story to see him go from yelling about the issues to trying to run
50:42and implement change um yeah i give one i give spencer pratt tremendous kudos because
50:48i think anybody with a platform who does run for office you know good for
50:53them they're going to see how difficult it actually is spencer pratt is one of
50:58these people who are like they're famous to a clique of people they're famous to
51:01millennials who watched his show 20 years ago nationwide i don't know if that bleeds
51:07out to the greater los angeles area um and he has to be perceived as
51:12not a joke and sometimes your outside name and brand are too much to overcome
51:21like this is a i'm not i don't mean to be crapping on spencer pratt
51:26but i'm going to give you an analogy if tom arnold ran for office i
51:31don't think democrats would take him seriously clay aiken ran for office many times people
51:37did not take him seriously because they didn't consider him a serious person um when
51:42it came to policy some celebrities are able to make the jump on schwarzenegger obviously
51:47in california al franken in minnesota most are very unsuccessful it is not is not
51:54always one does not always mean the other i've seen the poll numbers he's coming
51:58in third or fourth right now he needs to make top two to make the
52:00runoff wish him all the best of luck he's bringing up the right issues but
52:05he has to be taken seriously and uh i don't think right now he is
52:08so we'll see best of luck to nevada too because they need to work on
52:13their nevada is gerrymandered within an inch of their life if um if somehow republicans
52:21were to have a great election in 2030 uh which would probably have to lose
52:25the white house but if they would have a great election in 2030 by somehow
52:28and they were able to gerrymandered reorganize the seats in or pass a non -partisan
52:35map of some sort in nevada it would change that state probably permanently um but
52:40we'll see anyway thank you guys for listening to this episode if you like this
52:43podcast please like and subscribe on the iheart radio app apple podcast where we get
52:46your podcast and on youtube i appreciate you all for listening i will see you
52:50guys on monday on monday