The Manosphere Report

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1:03Limitations, terms, and conditions apply.

1:04You ever get the feeling the city walls closing in?

1:08The concrete jungle suffocating your soul.

1:10You crave wide open spaces.

1:12The chance to connect with nature.

1:14Maybe chase some elk. Fish a private stream.

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2:08Your social media feed delivers plenty of advice, but it doesn't know you.

2:12It doesn't ask questions. It doesn't give physical exams or order tests.

2:16Doctors do. At the American Medical Association, we believe the best care starts with a

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2:32Learn more at AMAHealthVsHype .org.

2:35That's AMAHealthVsHype .org. Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Grudusky.

2:42Thank you so much for being here, guys.

2:44I want to remind you all that before the big story came out about Kristi

2:49Noem and her husband, I said on this podcast that a secretary was telling reporters

2:56off the record that her husband was gay.

2:59Just so you know, I didn't name Kristi Noem because I wanted to keep that

3:02privacy because I'm not here to out people.

3:04But the Guardian, or the Daily Mail did it for me.

3:08So, but I told you guys all way ahead of time that this was happening

3:13and that this was what she was buzzing about to reporters.

3:16I wouldn't be shocked if someone in her close circle was the one who passed

3:20along some of that information to the Daily Mail reporters.

3:23I just want to let you know that listening to this podcast, you'll learn about

3:26the news a little earlier.

3:27Okay. My main topic for today is not about Kristi Noem's husband.

3:32It is about, is the Iran war sinking Donald Trump and the Republican Party?

3:39That is the question I am posing to my audience.

3:42Now, when the bombing campaign originally started five weeks ago, I, like many Republicans, were

3:49somewhat supportive and I said much to the fact that, you know, look, Iran has

3:54funded terrorism for decades. They have killed Americans.

3:58They have threatened American troops that are stationed overseas.

4:02They've threatened our allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia.

4:05They have not made a secret.

4:07They want to make long -range ballistic missiles, which could target Europe.

4:11They were absolutely a threat to stability, not only in the region, but in the

4:16world. I know Israeli intelligence has said that they were trying to build a nuclear

4:20bomb. I'm not a big believer in Israeli intelligence when it comes to Iran.

4:24They've been off quite a bit over the last few decades, so I'm going to

4:29put that to the side of them.

4:30But they were absolutely trying to build a long -range ballistic missile program and trying

4:35to enrich uranium. And I said in this program that as long as this was

4:41just about bombing campaigns, most Republicans were not going to care.

4:46They weren't going, it wasn't going to affect their life, you know, to most effects.

4:52And if it was very successful, it would be like Venezuela with the arrest of

4:55Maduro, which was flawless. But it wasn't going to positively impact the president very much

5:01because we don't care about foreign policy as a country right now.

5:07That idea that Republicans are not going to care is changing, and it's changing fast.

5:14We've had, in this country, as far as, because of this, you know, because of

5:19the war, we've had a few terrorist attacks which have killed American civilians.

5:22of 금 the name of the war .17 'busier.

5:22And, other We have had soldiers die overseas, abroad, and we most importantly, though, as

5:29far as political ramifications go, not human life obviously lost, but political ramifications, we're seeing

5:36the price of oil skyrocket.

5:39I got a text yesterday or the day before from one of my aunts, big

5:43Republican Trump supporting aunt, who was very angry that gasoline in her town had increased

5:50by 40 cents in a single day.

5:52The average price of gasoline has increased by more than a dollar in a month

5:58nationwide. In 11 states in this country, gas is over $4 a gallon, California, Alaska,

6:07Maryland, Hawaii, Arizona, Utah, Illinois, Nevada, Idaho, Washington, and Oregon.

6:14At least one of those states has a very important U .S.

6:20Senate election, Alaska. Colorado, Florida, New York, New Jersey, Indiana, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and Vermont

6:27are very close to $84.

6:29That's according to AAA Insurance.

6:31That is not good because despite an increasing number of people using electric vehicles, gasoline

6:38is one of the fastest indicators to how people feel about the economy.

6:42You see the sign as you're passing along the highway.

6:45It is like food prices.

6:46You see it relative to your daily travels all the time, how gasoline is changing.

6:52You're reminded of it constantly.

6:55And polls are showing that it is costing support for this war, you know, in

7:00a large magnitude. Pew Research found that 61 % of Americans disapprove of the war.

7:0938 % approved. CNN had nearly identical numbers.

7:1459 % disapproving, 41 % approving.

7:17Quinnipiac, also nearly identical numbers.

7:2057 % disapproved, 37 % approved.

7:23Fox News, 58 % disapproved, 42 % disapproved.

7:27CBS News, 60 % disapproved, 40 % approved.

7:31RMG Research, 52 % disapproved, 39 % approved.

7:34It is overwhelming. It is across the board.

7:38It is Republican pollsters and Democrats and nonpartisan.

7:41They are finding about a 15 -point disapproval for this war overall when you add

7:48everything up. Now, I know a lot of people like to say, especially in the

7:52media, especially supporters of this war, like the Mark Levin types, they say, look at

7:56the MAGA. MAGA supports him.

7:58Look at, you know, when you look at MAGA Republicans, it's 90, 95 % support

8:05him, 89 % support him, depending on the poll.

8:09That is a very, how do I say this, less than smart way of trying

8:15to figure out how Republican voters and Trump voters specifically feel about this poll.

8:20Because there is no, being a MAGA voter to a pollster is a self -indicator.

8:27So, it's not like I can look at your voting card or your voter registration

8:33information and cross -select that with who I'm calling when I'm doing a poll or

8:37who I'm texting. It's all, you know, am I a MAGA supporter?

8:41Yes or no? It's how I feel inwards.

8:43It's not, am I a white male?

8:44Am I a millennial? Am I a registered Republican?

8:47Am I married? Am I single?

8:49Am I, you know, am I a parent?

8:50Other things work to, you know, cross -check if you're telling the truth or not

8:57when you're doing these poll sample sizes and doing the methodology.

9:01There's nothing to work with the question of, are you a MAGA Republican?

9:06It's all self, you know, it's all self -checked.

9:10It's all what you believe inward.

9:11And it changes over time.

9:13You could be a MAGA Republican one day and not a MAGA Republican the next

9:16day. You can't be, you know, a man and a woman unless you're Caitlyn Jenner

9:19every day. Like, you're one fixed thing in when you're doing the samples and other

9:25parts of the methodology, which are more accurate.

9:27I would like to look at two other indicators to see how Trump voters actually

9:31feel. One being, how do Republicans and specifically people who voted for Donald Trump feel?

9:37And the second is, how do whites without a college degree Donald Trump's strongest voting

9:42bloc? Look, Republicans at the beginning of the conflict overwhelmingly supported the war.

9:47It was most polls found it over 80 percent support.

9:51Now, polls find between the mid -70s to the mid -60 level support.

9:55Fox News, 74 percent. Politico, 70 percent.

10:00YouGov found that it's 68 percent with 24 percent of Trump voters.

10:05These are Trump voters opposing the war, 8 percent undecided.

10:09Among independents who voted for Trump, it is even more lopsided, right?

10:14The independent vote, the Tulsi independents, the Latino men, the Maha RFK moms, the Rogan

10:24podcast bros, the young voters, the independents, the Latino working class men.

10:29These are people that Trump added to the coalition to win the popular vote, to

10:34swing states like New York and California by immense numbers and, you know, win every

10:41single swing state that there was.

10:43Those are the people that are isolated from this war effort.

10:47It's not people who necessarily have a cardboard cutout.

10:50Donald Trump figurine in front of their house.

10:54They're not the ones necessarily moving.

10:56Maybe it's not the people who the front row Joe's who go to every single

10:59one of his rallies because it's all self -identifying whether you are a MAGA Republican.

11:05But if they voted for him in 2024, they are, I don't know, not less

11:10MAGA or not less. They're new to the coalition.

11:14You can't afford to lose them.

11:17And I'll put out a caveat.

11:18The Quinnipiac poll did find it much higher at 86 percent.

11:21I want to at least mention that.

11:22But there's a trajectory that is very obvious that looks at the war effort and

11:26you see a downward slope over time, increasingly because independents, independents who lean Republicans and

11:34Republican voters themselves and Trump voters themselves are increasingly undecided, moving away from the war.

11:41Similarly, whites without a college degree, went from supporting the war effort by a double

11:47-digit margin to opposing the war by a double -digit margin.

11:51That is Donald Trump's base.

11:53It's not anything else as whites without a college degree.

11:57A Republican cannot win a single office in this country, a statewide office in this

12:03country, without winning the bulk support 65, 70, 75 percent of the white working class

12:11vote. That is the base of the Republican Party.

12:15That's who Republicans need to win over time and time again.

12:19That is who is, you know, obviously the most negatively impacted by increased gas prices,

12:25who really can't afford it is whites without a college degree.

12:28And independent numbers are at their lowest level ever for Donald Trump.

12:34For the first time in a long time, independents have a more favorable opinion of

12:40the Democratic Party than the Republican Party.

12:43Remember, we've been going on and on and on this podcast about how can Democrats

12:47win if independents view them negatively?

12:49And, you know, partially it's because it's a binary choice, just one or the other.

12:53So you're upset with one, you go to the other.

12:54It's like, you know, being a divorced child with two different parents.

12:58However, they were like, we don't like the Democrats, but we might go vote for

13:02them because they're not the Republicans.

13:03Now they're saying the Republicans are way worse than the Democrats.

13:08Not where you want to be, just not where you want to be.

13:10And it gets even worse.

13:12I saw this headline and I wanted to rip my hair out.

13:16This is from Axios. This is the headline and the headline is doing some work.

13:19This is obviously a very liberal headline that is doing a lot of work on

13:25behalf of Democrats. But the story has some merit.

13:28Axios, GOP weighs health care cuts to pay for Iran war.

13:33This is important. Top House Republicans are looking at health care offsets, addressing fraud in

13:40federal programs as they did during last year's debate over the budget law that made

13:45deep cuts to federal Medicaid spending and imposed first time work requirements.

13:49Not a bad thing, by the way.

13:51There are some other items we're looking into right now, especially in the area of

13:55fraud, waste and abuse that we're working through with our members.

13:57House Majority Leader Steve Scalise from Louisiana told Axios House Budget Committee Chairman Jody Arrington

14:04from Texas is reviving an idea that was considered last year to fund the Affordable

14:08Care Act payments known as cost sharing reductions.

14:11The Congressional Budget Office previously found that it would move, it would lower the overall

14:15benchmark of the ACA premiums by 11 percent, but it would reduce 300 ,000 more

14:21uninsured. It would cut the subsidy amount that some enrollees receive, thereby increasing out -of

14:28-pocket premium costs while saving the government $30 billion.

14:31$30 billion is not going to cover this war effort.

14:34It's just not. This war effort is about a third of what Iraq and Afghanistan

14:40were at this point, a third to a fourth.

14:42There's no health care subsidy cuts that are going to do this, but I want

14:47to remind people, forget about the math for a second, although that matters.

14:51One of the most effective ways that Democrats targeted Republicans during the fight over the

14:57ice spending was what AOC said.

14:59I mean, I'll give her credit where it's due.

15:01When she said the GOP was cutting funds for health care to fund ice.

15:06That is not true, but as far as campaign tactics go when it was polled,

15:12the most effective way that it was addressed, the most effective campaign tool, which is

15:19why, by the way, Rahm Emanuel, because he's running for president, or he's floating the

15:23idea, is saying he's going to cut ice funding and move it to community colleges.

15:26The idea that you are spending on Iran, the idea that you're spending on ice,

15:31and it could go to programs that make people's lives easier and better, whether that

15:37be true or not true, it doesn't matter.

15:39I'm talking about the rhetoric.

15:40The rhetoric is extremely, extremely effective.

15:44Americans, by and large, do not believe President Trump is focused on the right issues.

15:51They do not believe that they should be doing all this foreign policy intervention.

15:55They do not believe the economy is working for them, nor do they believe it's

15:58getting better. And job hiring numbers are awful right now.

16:03It all comes back down to the economy and gas prices.

16:07And the polls are showing that even for Republicans, even for Trump's most loyal voters,

16:14whites without a college degree, this is impacting them now.

16:17This is. not just bombs anymore.

16:19This is changing the trajectory.

16:22And it shows up in the polls.

16:24Even RealClearPolitics, which has avoided publishing some polls critical or less favorable for Donald Trump,

16:29are saying he's at a worse place now than he was at this point in

16:332021. New York Times, he's under 40 percent.

16:37According to Nate Silver, who's not, you know, a genius, but he's not a dummy

16:41either. Trump's approval ratings fell by five points in the last week and is under

16:4640 percent after being relatively unchanged for the last few months.

16:51The shooting in Minneapolis didn't really affect him.

16:55The Venezuela arrest of Nicolas Maduro didn't really affect him.

16:58He was always kind of floating, 41, 42, 43, maybe the high mark.

17:03The Iran war is affecting him.

17:05Gas prices are affecting him.

17:06They're affecting Republicans. The Trump administration has been extremely good on some issues like immigration,

17:13his executive order on housing, his push for most favored nation status when it comes

17:19to health care bills. However, it's all coming back to kitchen table issues at this

17:26moment. It is what sank Joe Biden.

17:29It is the biggest reason it sank Joe Biden.

17:31There were many things that sank Joe Biden.

17:32I don't want to overstate him.

17:34But kitchen table issues, inflation, definitely helped sink Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.

17:41And Trump is feeling the pressure over the same exact issues, right, with the Iran

17:47war, with gas prices, with kitchen tables concerns.

17:50That is why he's, you know, reduced our strategic petroleum reserves.

17:57And that's why he's moving the needle.

17:58If you've listened to what him and the Trump administration are saying, moving the needle

18:02on Iran very quickly. On Sunday, Secretary Rubio said that the Strait of Hormuz will

18:07be reopened one way or another.

18:09And on Monday, President Trump said if Hormuz Strait is not immediately open for business,

18:13they're going to blow up Iran's electrical plants and oil wells.

18:16And then by Monday, according to the Wall Street Journal, he told top aides he's

18:21willing to end the war without opening the Strait of Hormuz.

18:24Time is ticking down very badly towards the midterms.

18:28It is ticking so quickly.

18:30And the Iran war is not Venezuela.

18:34And polls are showing it.

18:36Independents are fleeing. Young people are angry.

18:39And turnout for Democrats is going to be so intense.

18:44Over the last couple weeks, something I haven't covered that I've not been mentioning yet

18:48because I'm going to do a deep dive.

18:50In Virginia, the Democrat turnout, the black vote turnout for this referendum on congressional districts,

18:57soared. After not voting at all, black vote not voting whatsoever, the black vote right

19:01now is soaring in Virginia.

19:04The referendum is probably going to pass.

19:07Democrats are getting activated and getting motivated and showing up after spending weeks sleeping through

19:14this election. It all comes down to the economy.

19:18It all comes down to what is affecting people's pocketbooks.

19:21And Iran is finally starting to affect people's pocketbooks.

19:25And I'm telling you, he is going to walk into George W.

19:29Bush territory if gas prices go over $5 a gallon.

19:33If you want to see Donald Trump with lows like you've never seen him, because

19:37even during the first time, even during the chaos and all the news stories, and

19:40does he watch a show with just gorillas fighting and leakers and people getting fired?

19:45He was always net positive on the economy.

19:48Now he's lower on the economy than Joe Biden was.

19:51And Harris, Harvard Harris poll found that more people think that Joe Biden was better

19:55for the economy than Donald Trump.

19:56I don't necessarily believe that poll, although it could be just that people forget because

20:01people forget everything. But it just shows the anger and the anguish.

20:07And the saddest thing, the most annoying thing as someone who voted for Donald Trump

20:11every time he's been on a ballot, the most annoying thing as a conservative and

20:15a Republican operative is he has had answers to address these concerns over economic populism.

20:21The type of stuff Republicans usually don't support that got him that independent vote, that

20:26got him those former Democrats, that got him the Obama voters and the Maha voters

20:30and the Hispanic men and the young bros.

20:34You know, most favored status with medical bills and prescription drugs, rather.

20:40That should be in Congress.

20:41That should be voted on tomorrow.

20:43Dare the Democrats to vote against it.

20:45Inside the trading bills. People feel like Congress is completely warped.

20:49That would pass immediately if President Trump sat there and fought for it.

20:53I know I just had sat there and tried to avoid it, but it is

20:55the truth. If he the credit card limiting credit card interest rates.

21:01I know that's economically popular.

21:03It's politically a huge win for people over and over again.

21:07And the Republican Party saying don't do populist stuff.

21:09That's what Republicans in Congress don't do populist stuff.

21:11That is the only thing that's going to save them at this point.

21:13And I will tell you guys a story.

21:16There is now there's a big, a lot of negative headlines.

21:18I've never actually said this before.

21:19And I was, it's not in my script.

21:20I'm just going through it in my head.

21:23There was a, there was, there's all the stories now about all the tax cuts

21:29that companies are going to get because of the big, big, beautiful bill.

21:33I got to go to the House of Representatives to a top leadership Republican, one

21:38of the most senior Republicans that there was in the House.

21:41And I presented him all this polling information.

21:44And I said to him on the big, beautiful bill.

21:45with the tax cuts. No tax on tip, no tax on social security, huge wins,

21:50usually popular, no tax overtime, usually popular.

21:53You're going to win over so many people.

21:55You know what the one thing you're going to lose them on?

21:59Tax cuts for people who make too much money, tax cuts for corporations.

22:03If you get rid of that part of the bill and keep everything else, you

22:07actually make this a net positive bill instead of a polling net negative bill.

22:11And he looked so angry that I had presented that information to him.

22:16And I just said, this is what it is.

22:19I'm not, you know, I'm just here to tell you how the people feel right

22:24now, that they feel ripped off and left out.

22:27And we left that meeting.

22:28I said, I really want you to consider what I'm saying to you.

22:31You need to have more economic populism towards the working class, towards the middle class,

22:35towards young people. And he said, thank you and have a nice day.

22:39And it went out with me.

22:40But the congressional Republicans are not going to do on their own.

22:45They need a leadership from Trump.

22:47And he knows this because he picked up the million dollar bill.

22:49That is why he became president.

22:51The million dollar bill on the floor on immigration, on trade, on populism, on manufacturing,

22:56on war. And man, oh man, there are times he feels like he's shredding it

23:02little by little. All right.

23:04Coming up next, I want to talk about some other interesting data that you guys

23:08will love to know and ask me anything's coming up later.

23:10So stay tuned. Listen, we've seen what's out there for patio furniture and what you've

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23:25Now you're listening to this while under a designer umbrella on a luxurious teak lounge

23:29chair, because it's easy to relax when you refuse to settle on style, on price,

23:35on outdoor pieces that will actually outlast the season.

23:38HomeSense, the home of no compromise, part of the HomeGoods family.

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24:43You ever get the feeling the city walls closing in, the concrete jungle suffocating your

24:49soul? You crave wide open spaces, the chance to connect with nature, maybe chase some

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26:18So every year, 60 universities get together producing something called the Cooperative Elections Study.

26:25It details American life and American politics and it's fascinating.

26:28I covered it in my newsletter over the weekend, my national populist newsletter, but I

26:33want to talk about some highlights that I found so important that you guys would

26:37really appreciate because this is not like a loosey -goosey 100 -person survey.

26:40This is like 17 ,000 people, 60 universities, lots of professors and students getting involved

26:45with this. It's a really well -accredited report.

26:49So first thing they said on the politics side, the only group of people, the

26:54only demographic willing to claim that they are Democrats, not that they're independents, not that

26:59they're neither party, but to say openly they're Democrat, only one demographic, and that's white

27:05men with a college degree.

27:07That I thought was fascinating.

27:08They also found that absolutely, this is not going to shock anybody who's ever listened

27:13to my podcast. or, I don't know, met another person, but Americans really don't like

27:19trans stuff in children. They really, really, really don't like the trans stuff in children.

27:24Two -thirds of Americans oppose any kind of transitioning drug for minors or any kind

27:30of transitioning surgeries for minors.

27:32The most opposed by religious groups are white evangelicals, Orthodox Christians, Mormons, white Catholics, all

27:38over 70 percent oppose that.

27:41Support for, this is also fascinating, support for more border guards and border wall funding

27:45is down considerably, including among Republicans, because Trump fixed the border.

27:51So people are not concerned anymore.

27:53People have to have an emergency to feel like that they have to do something.

27:57But that is why it is so critical that Trump builds the border this term

28:03because, or build the border wall this term, because if three years go by and

28:08there's no border crossings, it's not going to be an issue in the 2028 election.

28:11People will be like, what do you mean?

28:12I forgot all about Biden.

28:14What happened then? Trump's fixed the border.

28:16We don't have to worry.

28:16We could elect a Democrat.

28:17You've got to build the border wall now and you've got to really ramp up

28:21every kind of protection of the border so that way a Democrat can't, you know,

28:25Democrats are not going to bulldoze the border wall, I think.

28:28Support for abolishing zoning laws and building multifamily homes in communities is down.

28:34This is so interesting because when Mandani was elected, there's all these conversations about affordability

28:40and housing and we, and there's all these cretins on the internet who are like,

28:44you know what would be great?

28:46Let's just abolish all zoning laws.

28:48We could have a strip club next to a K through 12 school, next to

28:51a gun shop, next to someone's house, next to an apartment building, and we'll just

28:55ruin a neighborhood and make it completely unlivable where only transient people who rent will

29:00ever want to be there.

29:01That it turns out is very, very unpopular.

29:04Specifically, but this is interesting, the group it's most unpopular with are women who live

29:10in the suburbs and are not religious.

29:13That's usually Democrats. And I wonder if it's possible in the same way that Republicans

29:20lured suburban women for years over the issue of crime if protecting zoning laws was

29:27a way to re -engage with those voters.

29:29I don't know the answer to that, but I find it very interesting.

29:32And last part of this poll that I thought you guys should know is that

29:36support for an assault weapons ban, I'm going to use air -budding quotes, assault weapons

29:41ban, support for an assault weapons ban has increased among Republicans.

29:47Now, I thought at first I saw this and I was like, this is a

29:49head scratcher. And of all the data, I was really confused by this, but it

29:54increases, it starts spiking in 2024, this increasing ban for assault weapons.

30:00And I said, what's happened since 2024 that Republicans would be acknowledging?

30:05So I don't know this to be true.

30:07I'm guessing that there are three events.

30:10One, the attempted assassination of Donald Trump.

30:12Two, the successful attempted, sorry, successful assassination of Charlie Kirk and all the trans mass

30:19shooters in schools. I think that Republicans feel especially targeted.

30:23Like if Donald Trump doesn't have, doesn't have the correct protection from these left -wing

30:31lunatics, who does? I don't know that that's true, but the data is pointing to

30:36that assault weapons bans is increasingly important, supported among Republicans.

30:41It's not the most important issue, which is different, but it is an 80 -20

30:45issue. Assault weapons ban is an 80 -20 issue that Democrats are on the popular

30:50side of, like Republicans are on the popular side of the trans issue.

30:53Another 80 -20 issue that the American public overwhelmingly is in favor of.

30:59Now on the trans issue, they've managed to pass a lot of local laws.

31:04On the firearms issue, there are some laws, but the Supreme Court's really been very

31:08strict about the Second Amendment and the rights of the Second Amendment.

31:11Well, and I'm diverting from, I'm transitioning from the cooperative election study, by the way,

31:17I'm going into this, about other 80 -20 issue.

31:19The other 80 -20 issue that's emerging, according to all this data, and if you

31:23listen to this podcast, you know what I'm going to say.

31:25It's AI. And I know I feel, you feel like, Ryan, you're beating a dead

31:29horse. You talk about this all the damn time.

31:31I know, I know, I know.

31:32When I say that this is probably going to be top three most important issues

31:37of the 2020 election, if not top two, I am, I feel very strong about

31:43that. A poll from Quinnipiac asked voters about a lot of questions about AI.

31:48And this, it's interesting because they broke this poll down based upon age ranges, because

31:52I wanted to know, maybe young people feel differently than old people, and maybe young

31:56people are more welcoming of AI, and it's, you know, it's just an old person

32:00thing because they don't understand it.

32:01Well, they asked Americans, are you excited or nervous about AI?

32:0535 % were excited, 62 % were nervous.

32:09The only group that was excited, where a majority was excited, were people who earn

32:13more than $200 ,000 a year.

32:16Among Gen Z, 35 % excited, 62 % not excited.

32:21Millennials, 41 % excited, 58 % not excited.

32:25Even those who know a great deal about AI, 44 % excited, 56 % not

32:30excited. Listen, 80%. It's an 80 % issue.

32:35I'm going to get there.

32:36When asked, are you concerned with AI?

32:3877 % of Gen Z, 81 % millennials, 76 % of people making more than

32:43$200 ,000 a year, 78 % of Republicans, 89 % of Democrats.

32:49It's across the board. It's an 80 -20 issue.

32:5151 % of people say AI is moving faster than they expected.

32:57When the question is, how much do you trust the information AI is giving to

33:00you? 21 % said all or most of the time, 76 % said hardly ever.

33:06Even those who have a great deal of knowledge about AI, 25 % said all

33:10or most of the time, 71%, some or hardly ever of the time.

33:1550 % of the public said they used AI in their day -to -day life.

33:20The idea that this is just a small niche group of people, no, this is

33:23half the country now using AI.

33:25And the more they use it, the more questions that they have about it.

33:29Do you think when it comes to your day -to -day life, will AI do

33:33more harm than good? 55 % said more harm.

33:3834 % said more good.

33:40More harm was the majority of every age group, every political party, both sexes, people

33:47with and without a college degree, blue and white -collar workers.

33:52The only group, once again, to say that they, that's saying the opposite, that it

33:55was doing more good than harm, were people who make over $200 ,000 a year.

33:59It is a very small class of people based upon income that are feeling really

34:06good. When it comes to education, will AI do more harm than good?

34:1127 % said good. Only 27%.

34:1564 % said more harm, including 70 % of Gen Z, who are the most

34:21and the only generation who's been exposed to AI in the classroom.

34:24Millennials weren't. We didn't have AI growing up.

34:26I had the Oregon Trail.

34:27Once again, every age group, sex, political party, all earners say more harm when it

34:33comes to education. The only silver lining for the pro AI groups is on healthcare.

34:3943 % said AI will be improved their healthcare.

34:4145 % said will do more harm.

34:43People believe AI will improve medical diagnosis and help cure diseases, but only 3 %

34:50of people, so they are willing to trust medical scans being done by AI alone

34:54without a doctor. Super majority of people over 80%, so they want a doctor there

35:00working with AI. But here's the most important question for politics.

35:05Do you think the government is doing enough to regulate AI?

35:1013 % said yes. 74 % said no.

35:17It's an 80 -20 issue, everybody.

35:19It's an 80 -20 issue.

35:21It's like the trans issue, like the gun issue, but a lot more important to

35:26people. And I want to tell you this ahead of time.

35:29While everyone else is talking about which personalities are fighting with each other, Trump is

35:34on the wrong side of this issue.

35:35Trump is absolutely on the wrong side of this issue when it comes to voters.

35:38He is. It's literally like saying, I want to have grown men shower next to

35:43teenage girls when they declare themselves women.

35:46The polling is emphatic, and it's one of many moving.

35:5259 % of Republicans say the government isn't regulating AI enough.

35:5859 % of Republicans, when Trump has been the AI president, 23 % said they

36:03are. 88 % of Democrats, 80 % of independents say they are not regulating enough.

36:10Even people making more than $200 ,000 a year who are favorable to AI, the

36:15most favorable group saying AI is going to be good in their life.

36:2075 % say government not regulating AI enough.

36:24The most fascinating part of this was Gen Z, millennials, Gen X, and baby boomers

36:29are the same. They're all the same when it comes to the percentages, regulation versus

36:34no regulation. You'd think that this is just a scary thing for old people.

36:39No, it is equal. My jaw dropped when I was looking at the differences in

36:44generations, and there was no difference.

36:46It is astonishing because that's not true of almost any other political issue you ask

36:52people. When it was asked, will AI create more job opportunity or less?

36:5670 % said less, and this is the little part where it actually does change

37:03by generation. 66 % of baby boomers said less, 67 % of Gen Xers, 71

37:09% of millennials. It goes up to 81 % by Gen Z.

37:13It gets worse as they get younger.

37:17It should be the opposite, where the youth generation who's been exposed to technology is

37:22not afraid of it, is studying it, is learning it, but it's not.

37:25It's the opposite. The more they're exposed to it, the more they are running from

37:29it. 61 % of Republicans, 78 % of Democrats, 73 % of American Independents, 73

37:35% of college degree holders, 60 % of people without a college degree, all income

37:40brackets, both sexes, everybody says this is going to destroy jobs.

37:46How concerned are you that it will make your job obsolete?

37:4930 % of Americans said they are concerned, very concerned, or somewhat concerned.

37:54Do you use AI at work?

37:56One in three people said yes.

37:58Only group says the majority is $200 ,000 a year.

38:01Last note or two that I think is important, 51 % of Americans oppose using

38:06the military, dislike AI for targets.

38:08It's the only group that I've heard.

38:08poses it are Republicans and baby boomers and myself kind of um I think they

38:13should work with people and I know a lot I know I talk a lot

38:16about AI I am sure more than other conservative podcasters that someone hardly ever talk

38:22about it they're all talking about you know Israel and you know who hates who

38:26and I do not care whatsoever about personal infighting like this when this is on

38:30the table um call me when we have no problems and we'll talk about who

38:34hates who um but we are witnessing the one of the one of not only

38:41a technological change that will affect everybody's life but also that will change our politics

38:48in the next three years it's not this is not a far away fantasy question

38:53and you know who knows this the Trump administration and the companies because they started

38:58a new pack that will spend a hundred million dollars this year led by former

39:03Trump official Taylor Budowich um to promote the president's vision AI which is advocacy for

39:08AI which is no which is a law to ban states from regulating AI hundred

39:13million dollars it's not cheap it's a little bit of money it's not a little

39:17bit of money that's enough to change the senate race but they're spending it on

39:20AI they would not be spending this kind of money if they didn't think there

39:25were that they were losing the issue that the issue was escaping them that they

39:28had to stop it from being an 80 20 issue but I think the clock

39:33is running out and I think that enough of these tech bros and these AI

39:37bros they are not around normal people enough to set and know how crazy they

39:43sound it's like they read the book the Frankenstein monster book and they rooted for

39:48the doctor to just keep making more of that you know it's it's it's bizarre

39:53it's they are very bizarre behavior that's very off -putting to a lot of people

39:57and it's showing in polling and if job and unemployment numbers go up and the

40:02number of job number of people hiring goes down I have to tell you folks

40:07it's an 80 20 issue that a lot of Republicans are on the wrong side

40:11of and they should change their ways now something now ask me anything is coming

40:17up next listen we've seen what's out there for patio furniture and what you've been

40:23paying is outrageous but that was last season you before you ditched the specialty stores

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40:49you heard about Klarna Klarna is an app designed to make everyday spending simpler and

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41:13purchases and stay organized you can also discover deals and even earn cash back when

41:19you shop through the Klarna app with participating brands it's all about flexibility and staying

41:25in control of how and when you pay download the Klarna app today or visit

41:31Klarna .com to learn more terms apply California resident loans made or arranged pursuant to

41:38a California finance law license NMLS number 1353190 Klarna balance account required to be eligible

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41:57the chance to connect with nature maybe chase some elk fish a private stream well

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43:20on purchases 75 or more with code iheart now it's the ask me anything segment

43:27if you want a part of the ask me anything segment email me ryan at

43:29numbersgamepodcast .com that's ryan at numbersgamepodcast .com first question coming up is from keith see

43:36here see here It's first time writing in, but I'm a longtime Clay and Buck

43:38listeners and Numbers Game listener.

43:40Thank you, Keith. Love the podcast with all the data and insightful analysis on the

43:44data, along with the quality of the data you bring to the table.

43:47As a retired engineer, a saying, in God we trust, all else must be bring

43:51data. That is so true.

43:52My question is this. We have many Democrats that campaign as centrist, but they enact

43:57policies that are nowhere near centrist and go crazy far left, Biden, Spanberger, yada, yada,

44:02yada. Love or hate Trump is doing what he said.

44:05Has there been any polling specifically addressing buyer's remorse with the difference between what is

44:10promised and what they did beyond just voter satisfaction as a result of this election

44:15cycle? That is a great question.

44:18That's actually a phenomenal question.

44:20There are multiple times that this question is polled per year, but it's always on

44:24a national level. I've never seen it done on a state level for a governor

44:28or a senator before, but it's done on a national level all the time.

44:32And I agree with you.

44:34Spanberger ran as a moderate, and she's a crazy far leftist, probably one of the

44:39most left -wing governors in the country.

44:41What did Pat Buchanan say in his 92 culture or speech?

44:45The DNC is the world's largest drag bowl where radicals dress up as centrist.

44:51That is very much how a lot of Democrats are doing it, and Spanberger won

44:55by a huge margin doing that.

44:57But the numbers on Trump, I did look up for you.

45:00So TIPP, which is an A -plus pollster, they found in Wisconsin 9 % of

45:04Trump voters regret voting for him.

45:06A poll from The Argument magazine found it was about 15 % of Trump voters

45:10nationwide that say they regret voting on him.

45:12It used to be a lot less.

45:14I think a couple things, the economy, the Iran war, gas prices maybe are fueling

45:19a little bit of a spike.

45:20But this 15%, 9%, it's not unusual for when Biden was president.

45:27There was a poll, I think, by Zogby that had a 22 % of people

45:32who said they regret their vote.

45:36It depends on how popular the president is at any time, but usually it's a

45:40good 10 % to 20 % that say they regret their vote.

45:45And whichever partisan person in a magazine or whatnot will pick it up and be

45:51like, look, all these Biden voters regret their vote or all these Trump voters regret

45:55their vote. It's a small percentage right now.

45:57It's a smaller percentage for Trump than it is for Biden, but it has been

46:00climbing. I don't, if there's any that I see on the state level, I will

46:04report it. I have not yet seen anything though that indicates that.

46:08Okay, last question for the show comes from Sean from Utah.

46:12He writes two questions. I have become a regular listener over the last few months.

46:15Sean, I thank you from the bottom of my heart.

46:18I'm not joking. I really am not joking.

46:19I am grateful for all of my listeners, anyone who listens to this podcast.

46:23And I try to make it like you can, you know, talk to me about

46:25whatever. There's no question that's that stupid of a question.

46:29There are some that are questionable.

46:30But anyway, this is not a stupid question because I read it beforehand.

46:34With the primary season coming into full swing, I keep wondering what is the best

46:37state's primary system to get the best representative elected?

46:41In Maine and Alaska, they have the whole rank choice thing.

46:44California, Louisiana do a jungle primary.

46:46Georgia has a funky one where there's a runoff after the general.

46:49And I know many other states use different systems.

46:51What is the best system to collect the best person?

46:55That's really hard to say because, and I thought a lot about this after I

47:01read the question, it really depends on the character of people running, right?

47:05Because like Alaska's voting system was created for Elisa Murkowski to protect her, right?

47:10That's how they do the rank choice and the runoff and all the rest of

47:13the stuff. And rank choice in Maine was put forward because the Republicans elected a

47:19governor. They got a Republican elected governor who won.

47:23Paul LePage won the first time with 38 percent of the vote because there were

47:26so many independents running. And they want to avoid, these blue states want to avoid

47:31a Republican winning with a minority percentage of the vote.

47:34So I don't think there's a very fair reason of having rank choice.

47:39Also, rank choice is created a lot of times by centrist Democrats to avoid progressive

47:44Democrats from winning the nomination.

47:45Because the belief is, is that centrist split the vote and eventually enough of them

47:50will kind of come together towards the same candidate and defeat progressives.

47:53That's actually happened in New York City more than once except for the last time.

47:57And then there are other states that do like publicly funding campaigns, like New York

48:01does that for local and state candidates.

48:03But now we're seeing where the Republican governor, Republican governor candidate for New York is

48:10not eligible for those funds.

48:11They're playing partisan politics. However, when it's on the city council level, I know a

48:15lot of ordinary people who don't have access to a lot of money partake in

48:19the publicly funded program. But those states also have tons of corruption scandals.

48:24Louisiana has tons of corruption scandals.

48:25New York has tons of corruption scandals.

48:27I guess when it comes to the integrity of the people who are running, the

48:32state that probably does it best, and I really thought hard about this, is probably

48:36New Hampshire. And they have a regular election system like anybody else, but they have

48:41two things I think go for them.

48:42One is they have so many elected representatives.

48:46It's $400 for such a small state, which means that just a few hundred people

48:51elect your representative. There's a lot more personal dialogue with your representative.

48:55And also, state representatives and state senators are paid just $100 a year.

48:59So, you can't make a full -time career out of being an elected politician.

49:03You have to. You have to.

49:04have a normal job. Now that may deter people who will like to do a

49:08full time but can't because they have to be a nurse somewhere.

49:11But it does create a system where there's more real representation when it comes to

49:16people living a normal life because you can't be a politician and be isolated and

49:23just hang out with donors.

49:24And you can win an election on relatively very little money because if you just

49:28talk to 500 people, which over six months is not that hard, you can win

49:32your state representatives. If you are from a very large family in New Hampshire, has

49:36a lot of kids and cousins, you can probably win there too.

49:38Second question was, how does the SAVE Act help with reducing voter fraud?

49:42For example, in Senator Mike Lee's state and my state of Utah, the issue of

49:46driver's licenses to non -citizens.

49:48I don't understand why does Utah do this?

49:50Why do they have such liberal laws on some things?

49:52There are no Democrats left in that state.

49:54It's mind -boggling. Someone could show up and vote with their voter ID but not

49:59be a citizen. What am I missing here?

50:00You're not missing anything. This is actually the one.

50:03I mean, listen, I think the SAVE Act is a good idea.

50:06I think that it's a little overblown on how much of an impact it will

50:10have, especially in red states, which there's already heavy regulations.

50:14The one area I think it will actually really impact something positively is when it

50:19comes to automatic voter registration, which does happen in red states like in Georgia and

50:25in Pennsylvania and other places, and states that give driver's licenses to illegal aliens.

50:31In that case, I think it will be a benefit, which will mostly be in

50:34blue states. That's where I think you're going to see some kind of change.

50:39I actually have a hard time figuring how they're going to do automatic voter registration

50:42in those states. So that's where I think you're going to see some difference is

50:47in those blue states. In a lot of red states which don't have automatic voter

50:49registration, don't give illegal driver's licenses.

50:52I think the change is going to be relatively very, very soon.

50:55But I think that the change will be really big in those blue areas.

50:59So excellent question. Excellent show, guys.

51:01Thank you so much for listening to this podcast.

51:03If you like this podcast, please like and subscribe to the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,

51:07where you get your podcast and on YouTube.

51:08And I will see you guys on Friday.

51:12Listen, we've seen what's out there for patio furniture, and what you've been paying is

51:16outrageous. But that was last season you, before you ditched the specialty stores and started

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51:55away, paying later, or spreading payments over time, depending on what works best for you.

52:02Everything is managed in the Klarna app, so you can keep track of purchases and

52:07stay organized. You can also discover deals and even earn cash back when you shop

52:12through the Klarna app with participating brands.

52:15It's all about flexibility and staying in control of how and when you pay.

52:21Download the Klarna app today or visit Klarna .com to learn more.

52:26Terms apply. California resident loans made or arranged pursuant to a California finance law license.

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52:42You ever get the feeling the city walls closing in, the concrete jungle suffocating your

52:48soul? You crave wide open spaces, the chance to connect with nature, maybe chase some

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53:32Exactly. Organic Valley small family farms protect the land and the plants and animals that

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It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind the Iran War Backlash and Trump’s Slipping Support