The Manosphere Report

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1:04Terms and conditions apply. Hey, it's Bobby Bones.

1:06You know, Eddie and I recently stopped by Yeah in Nashville.

1:10It's an incredible nonprofit empowering kids through music education.

1:13Thanks to Hyundai, we recorded a special podcast episode while we were there.

1:17How do you think learning an instrument helps kids with confidence?

1:22Learning an instrument allows them to discover a little bit further of who they are

1:27and be comfortable with it and then share a little bit about that with others.

1:32And if it's done in an environment that is celebrating and championing them, then that

1:36confidence can only go up.

1:38The full episode is out now presented by the Hyundai Ioniq 9.

1:42To donate and learn more about Yeah's mission, just visit yeahrocks .org.

1:49Why have we asked our contractor we found on Angie .com to be our kids'

1:53legal guardian? Because he took such good care when redoing our basement that we knew

1:57we could trust him to care for our kids, all eight of them, should something

2:00happen to us. Are you my dad now?

2:04Uh, no, sorry, I do basements.

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2:44VirginVoyages .com. What does invading Iran actually look like?

2:50What would we face? How many troops would we need?

2:53What would happen economically? And definitely, what would be the political fallout?

2:58Today, on The David Rutherford Show.

3:10Welcome back to the show, everybody.

3:12I'm David Rutherford, your host.

3:14Thank you so much for all the support lately.

3:16It's been incredible. We really appreciate you.

3:20Again, what helps us is if you like, subscribe, and share.

3:24Tell all your friends. You're getting good quality content, and we're delivering on our promise

3:29to give you the flashbang of truth and to contextualize the tsunami of information coming

3:35at you. All right, let's get started.

3:37Where are we right now with the Iranian war?

3:40All right. So we launched on February 28th, right?

3:43We've had probably over 1 ,000 strikes in the first couple 12 hours.

3:48We killed the Supreme Leader and his family in a ton of the other echelon,

3:56right? Operation Epic Fury. As we're 21 days into this thing, we've had over 7

4:02,000 U .S. targets struck, 7 ,600 Israeli strikes, and we'd have a pretty aggressive

4:11air campaign on Iranian naval vessels, as well as other strategic missile sites around the

4:18country. Iran's response has been, I guess in my mind, pretty predictable, but apparently other

4:26people didn't predict this. But there's been massive waves of missile strikes all throughout the

4:32region, including at Israel, U .S.

4:36air bases in Iraq, Bahrain, and Kuwait, and Qatar's Ras Lafon LNG refinery, and Saudi

4:44and UAE energy sites have also been hit as well.

4:48In terms of casualties, rough estimates in Iran are about 4 ,800 military KIAs, 19

4:55U .S. KIAs, 13 combat and six aircraft have been taken out.

5:04Iranian civilian casualties, some are saying it's around 1 ,400.

5:08With about 18 ,500 injured.

5:12There's a new supreme leader that's been placed, and that's Moitoba Khomeini, who's the son,

5:22and the IRGC is dedicated.

5:24Oh, my God. It's. loyalty to them.

5:27The IRGC is also claiming that most of their weapons caches are still intact and

5:33that they've only been getting rid of the old missiles and that they still have

5:38predominantly all their new technology waiting to deploy, most especially all their drones, the massive

5:45stockpile of drones they've had.

5:47On a side note, regionally, the Lebanon War has been reignited.

5:54And some people are saying 850 people have been killed, Lebanese, with a million displaced.

6:01And that there's also been strikes on some other major civilian infrastructure, including the Dubai

6:08airport, which is one of the most busy airports in the world.

6:12All right. So one of the things that is being heavily contested, debated, obviously, last

6:18week, the director of the National Counterterrorism Center, Joe Kent, former Green Beret, tier one

6:29covert SMU unit, as well as a special activities division ground branch member for 25

6:36plus years, basically resigned, suggesting, alleging that Israel is basically in control of making strategic

6:49decisions within the war in Iran.

6:51And what he says is that this has been proven several times over by statements

6:56that Marco Rubio, the Johnson Speaker of the House, as well as Trump has said.

7:02And then Tulsi Gabbard was on the Hill last Thursday, suggesting that there is no

7:11imminent threat from Iran. Now, a lot of people have different opinions that Radcliffe, the

7:17head of the CIA, immediately said afterwards, no, there is an imminent threat.

7:21And then Tulsi actually came back and said, listen, it's up to the president of

7:24the United States to decide what's imminent and what's not.

7:28So one of the things that now we're getting to is a point of, is

7:36it realistic to begin a ground war?

7:38Now, we've seen Trump launched a mu of about 4 ,500 Marines over a couple

7:45of weeks ago. We saw another large contingency, large, I mean, for Marines, you know,

7:522 ,000 is a lot that was just recently sent over.

7:57We all also saw an aircraft carrier was removed from the area because they had

8:01a massive fire outbreak, which basically left about 200 sailors without birthing and some other

8:09things. We also did see the first F -35 to ever get shot down on

8:16the border of Iraq, Iran.

8:19We're still waiting to get some more information about that as well, too.

8:23OK, so what does it mean to invade Iran in order to really have an

8:30impact on the so -called regime change war?

8:34Now, as I led into this, I'm trying to maintain kind of a historical perspective

8:40on this. And so the historical perspectives I wanted to really root myself in was

8:46the first Gulf War and then Iraq, Afghanistan, with Iraq, Afghanistan being the most relevant

8:53way to analyze potential numbers of troops costs, the impact of forces on the ground,

9:05the whole the whole gamble that you have to analyze when you're drawing up war

9:10plans for an operation of this magnitude and size.

9:13And just so you know, most military experts and think tanks and military historians are

9:23suggesting this would be the single greatest requirement on resources, military and civilian resources that

9:33we've seen since World War Two, even more so than than Vietnam.

9:40So I just wanted to give you a little bit of analysis of what we've

9:45seen in the past to get to.

9:47And I'm going to break this down military, militarily, economically and then politically.

9:52So let's start. All right.

9:53Now, Desert Storm 1991. There were six hundred ninety seven thousand U .S.

10:01troops, seven hundred and fifty thousand total coalition from thirty four different nations, the largest

10:09U .S. deployment since Vietnam.

10:11All right. Iraq enemy forces totaled roughly about six hundred thousand Iraqi military.

10:17And at the time, they were the fourth largest army in the world in their

10:21terms of their conventional force.

10:22Now, it opened. There was a five week air campaign, a thousand sorties a day.

10:29Then there was a hundred hour ground war.

10:33Now, I remember this, man, I was I was up at boarding school going through

10:38and I remember watching straight for twenty four hours CNN at the time thinking, oh,

10:44boy, this is it. This is where I'm going to get drafted.

10:47I'm going to go to war, you know, the whole thing.

10:50And, man, it was it was an interesting time.

10:52for me, as I'm sure it's very interesting for a lot of young men that

10:57are out there trying to figure out, is this the time to enlist?

11:02Is this the time to join?

11:03Is this time? Is this a righteous war?

11:06Is this something we could do?

11:08Obviously, when you do have a guy like Joe Kent resign the way he did,

11:13saying that he does not believe that we should go any farther with this and

11:18that our tactical or military strategic initiatives are being led by Israel.

11:25Now, obviously, that has been refuted vigorously from the top down, from Pete Hegseth to

11:33Donald Trump, President Trump to Marco Rubio.

11:37Everybody out there is basically saying, you know what, this guy doesn't know what he's

11:40talking about. He hasn't been involved in a lot of the military planning that's been

11:46taking place and the buildup to it.

11:47So he's not accurate with his assessments.

11:53So now here was some kickers.

11:55And this is something I want you to start thinking about, because in my mind,

11:58this is the greatest strategic thing that we have to evaluate, which is basically terrain,

12:06right? Waging war all the way back to Sun Tzu.

12:10When you go back and you read those writings, one of the most substantial aspects

12:16of waging any kind of war is where you're fighting, if you're ground troop, where

12:21you're fighting, what does the terrain look like?

12:23What does the weather look like?

12:25What's the heat, right? What's the freezing temperatures?

12:30You know, is there supply routes that are going to be accessible in these features?

12:36Is it going to require airlifts?

12:39Are there choke points of ingress and egress?

12:43You know, what are the, what does urban warfare look like in these situations?

12:47So, you know, when you start to break down a tactical perspective of waging a

12:53ground camping, even if you're a small unit, like I used to be a part

12:57of, you still evaluate every single piece of detail from, you know, if you're doing

13:03a recon on a compound, you know, what are the doors made of?

13:07What are the hinges? Does it open in?

13:09Does it out? How many vehicles?

13:10Are any of the vehicles armored?

13:12How many personnel are there?

13:13What type of weapon systems they have?

13:14How many women are on site?

13:15How many children are on site?

13:17Do they have air cover?

13:18Do they have antennas? Do they have comms?

13:20Like it's everything that you can think of.

13:22Where are we going to assault from?

13:23Is it in a heloborn?

13:25And if you look at our past, right?

13:28And the SEAL teams, we, we suffered the two single biggest loss in one day

13:33in both Iraq and Afghanistan with operation red wings and the helicopters getting shot at

13:39sky, including the recon team that the three out of four guys died.

13:45And then also, if you look at extortion 17, where we lost, you know, 22

13:50SEAL team, six members, as well as air crew and some Afghans on that as

13:56well, too. So, you know, and, and that was in what mountainous terrain where a

14:00lot of that took place.

14:01And, and we actually had one more helicopter that we lost a life in the

14:06beginning of the Afghan war, Neil Roberts.

14:08They were going into a very defended position where there was an anti -aircraft gun

14:14at, during Tor Bora. And they said, you know, some people were like, don't go

14:17in there. And they're like, no, we got to take out this, this, this defensive

14:20position and shot a RPG.

14:23He fell out and ended up getting killed.

14:25But also we lost, uh, what perhaps was one of the most impressive medal of

14:30honor recipient actions ever, which was Chapman, uh, SEAL.

14:35Another SEAL also, uh, received the medal of honor during that as well, too.

14:39Um, so when you think about Iran, what I want you to do is, uh,

14:43I want you to think about a map of Iran and maybe Jordan, you could

14:47pull up a topographical map while I start thinking about this, right?

14:52All right. So when you think about, uh, Iraq, right, mostly flat terrain, especially from

14:58Kuwait all the way into Baghdad, uh, ideal for armor vehicles.

15:03I mean, hell, that's when we first used the desert patrol vehicles.

15:06Our, our guys did, uh, you know, really positive terrain for massive troop movement.

15:13All right. You got that?

15:14Want to flash it up for me real quick.

15:16I just want to give them a reference point, uh, for how the mountain terrain

15:21looks in F in Iran.

15:23And, and we'll, we'll reference that again here.

15:26So, okay, you can take it down now.

15:28All right. So, um, what I want you to start to think about too is,

15:33is, is populations. Cause in Iraq at that time, um, you know, it was, it

15:38was 437 ,000 square kilometers.

15:42There was an 18 million, uh, population, right now during that war, we had KIA,

15:50American KIAs of 299. And the cost of that was $61 billion.

15:57Okay. Very short war in out.

16:00All right. And it was one of the things that actually George Bush senior said,

16:04uh, we, we broke, uh, the mental, um, uh, hurdle of what the Vietnam war

16:12had done to the consciousness of, of America.

16:14It regained our prowess as a superpower militarily, militarily that we can be quick.

16:20decided and show an overwhelming power of might and military and technology, right?

16:30And that's what it was.

16:32Now, let's move to Iraq in 2003, right?

16:36We had an initial invasion force of 170 ,000 people.

16:40I have several buddies that were part of that, some really interesting ops during that

16:45time. Now, this coalition initially was U .S.

16:49and the U .K., and it was a much smaller coalition.

16:54Why? Because many people had already bought into the coalition of Afghanistan, which had taken

16:59place beginning in October of 2001.

17:04And a lot of people were saying, you know what?

17:06We don't buy the intelligence you're spout.

17:09Remember Colin Powell? This is a slam dunk, weapons of mass destruction.

17:14You know, very similar intelligence collection during that war, the Iraq war, as what we're

17:20seeing now. And so it really was, you know, during the Iraq, we didn't have

17:29enough for occupation, but we still went for it.

17:31Now, the enemy forces during that time, 375 ,000 Iraqi military, which had been dramatically

17:40weakened by 12 years of sanctions, and the Republican Guard of about 80 ,000 people.

17:45Now, everybody remembers their TV, the shock and awe, right?

17:51And everybody's like, oh, my God.

17:54And, you know, last summer, we saw pretty substantial shock and awe at the ending

18:00of the 12 -day war.

18:02We saw this 32 aircraft, you know, bunker busting, JDAM dropping, like, assault on the

18:09nuclear. And everybody's like, damn.

18:12And then you combine that with what happened in Venezuela.

18:14And I think people had a little bit of that shock and awe vibe going

18:18in them again, right, where nobody's going to beat us down.

18:22Like, we're running the tables now.

18:24Meanwhile, let's just ignore everything that we saw in Ukraine and Russia over the last

18:29few years. I'm not going to pay attention to that.

18:32That stalemate of probably 1 .5, you know, 1 .7 million men grinding it out

18:39in drone trench warfare. Not going to look at any of that.

18:42Nope, nope, nope. I want to look at our shock and awe.

18:46Okay. So, again, the terrain of Iraq was really in our behalf.

18:54I mean, when you think about jets and helicopters flying over massive ground troops, rolling

19:00in tanks and rolling in Humvees and, you know, all these vehicles and helicopters and

19:05all this stuff, like, it's about perfect.

19:07One of the worst things that, you know, would face during those times was sandstorms,

19:12right, really beat up on helicopters and other aircraft, impedes visualization.

19:17Obviously, the technology we had then wasn't great, drone technology.

19:20Now, obviously, we're in a whole new battle space in terms of unmanned aerial drones,

19:28you know, vehicle drones, every kind of drone you can think of, and as well

19:32as the aircraft that we have from technology, our satellite systems, you know, being able

19:39to, you know, watch a guy picking his nose from, you know, a mile up

19:43in the air, right? You know, that's the kind of technology we do have now.

19:47But, again, going back to this.

19:49So, obviously, you know, there was, once we got through, we kind of toppled Saddam's

19:57group pretty rapidly. I remember Saddam's, like, second in command.

20:04No, we're winning the war.

20:05Meanwhile, there's, like, a tank behind him rolling through the city, completely lying on television.

20:11Meanwhile, you know, Saddam Hussein, nowhere to be found.

20:16He found his little hole, right?

20:18All right. Now, here's some other things, right?

20:20In the country, again, as I said, 437 ,000 square kilometers, 25 million population.

20:29Now, KIAs, American KIAs through 2011 was 4 ,431.

20:39And remember, primarily after 04, moving into 04 and 05, we were fighting an insurgency

20:47and not necessarily the Iraqi military, although there are many of those people just took

20:53off the uniform and became a part of the insurgency.

20:55But that insurgency was led by al -Qaeda Iraq, right, in the Sunni triangle.

21:00And then there was Eastern with Muqtada al -Sadr that was being supported by Iranian

21:07proxies to fight against us.

21:09And that's something I want you to think about, right?

21:12When we went in, before that, it was Sunnis fighting Baathists, fighting Shias, fighting whatever,

21:20right? Iraq. Iran war back in the day, them fighting each other, which was a

21:24stalemate war that we funded both sides, by the way, for eight years, right?

21:29Okay? Ground to a halt, just beating the snot out of each other, okay?

21:34I want you to really think about these details, all right?

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22:37.com slash legal slash disclosures terms and conditions apply hey it's bobby bones from the

22:42bobby bones you know eddie and i recently stopped by yeah in nashville it's an

22:47incredible non -profit empowering kids through music education thanks to hyundai we recorded a special

22:52podcast episode while we were there check it out what's the dream for yeah in

22:57the next few years we would love to have more consistent programming during the weekend

23:02our rock block program is dependent on funding venues that are available to host band

23:08-based programming we would love to extend the camp to a second consecutive week so

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23:18week camp and we'd love to expand our programming to offer more industry related skills

23:25like audio lighting production recording so that kids can be on a track to see

23:32where what they may create with an instrument can lead but also to welcome those

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23:43have an entry point into music the full episode is out now presented by the

23:47hyundai ioniq 9 to donate and learn more about yas mission just visit yeah rocks

23:52.org hi i'm angie hicks co -founder of angie from roof repair to emergency plumbing

23:59and more when you use angie for your home projects you know all your jobs

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24:40so uh total cost of the iraq war what do you think jordy you want

24:45to take a shot at what that that number was that i got here uh

24:49total cost i want to say two trillion 1 .9 trillion good job bud there

24:57we go jordy nicely done all right afghanistan right 2001 one that we invaded right

25:07in october september 11th went in i think it was like october 20 something october

25:1230 something i remember buddies of mine at red team like free falls hey ho

25:16jumping in right they were driving cars i in ground branch and then what the

25:22triple nickel oda those guys up in the north riding horses in man like that's

25:27what that's what we did in afghanistan why because the terrain was insane up north

25:33and the northern hindu kush coming in from uzbekistan right you had to climb over

25:38the hindu kush to get down into the other side of bagram right you have

25:41the mountains on pakistani border and then you come down all the way down and

25:46then you kind of the plateaus across western afghanistan into iran right landlocked iran right

25:52and then down in the southeast corner where mullah omar was in quetta you had

25:57the desert of death down there so again insane terrain insane difficult and again i

26:05just i know i'm saying again a lot i've known some kayla but i just

26:09want you to stop and think about afghanistan right there's a reason why people say

26:17afghanistan is a place where empires go to die right russia invaded it twice lost

26:25both britain or england invaded it twice lost both we went in lost that one

26:31now i got it i know what you're gonna say if you're out there you're

26:34diehard patriot like i am you're gonna say rot man rot buddy listen listen we

26:41won all the the battles we just couldn't we just weren't allowed to win the

26:45war and i agree with you man i was there a hundred percent i agree

26:49with you but what the fuck does that get us that's all i'm saying man

26:55like what is the strategic win you're talking about then yes we became the most

27:00elite fighters on the planet in urban for iraq and and and land and mountain

27:06terrain in afghanistan but technology is all but erased a lot of what we thought

27:14we were the best at anymore because now you can buy a $500 drone, put

27:20a hand grenade on it or a Claymore, fly it over 25 dudes and drop

27:25it in their thing in the middle of the night because you've got infrared or

27:30FLEARS or any different type of ability for low -grade technology that everybody has access,

27:39most especially Iran. Why? Because they are partners with Russia and China, who, by the

27:47way, Russia has just become what?

27:49Battle -hardened over the last four or five years in Ukraine.

27:53So now they have the technology up to speed, weapons production, the whole thing dialed

27:58in. And then you also have Chinese ability with satellite support, intelligence support, all that.

28:04So again, Iraq didn't have any of that.

28:06Afghanistan didn't have any of that stuff.

28:09All right. All right. Now, Afghanistan, 652 ,000 square kilometers, 25 million people.

28:20In our conflict, we had U .S.

28:23KIAs, 2 ,461, a bunch of my friends, and a cost.

28:30Jordy, what do you think the cost in Afghanistan was, buddy?

28:34I'm going to go lower than Iraq.

28:36I'm going to say only $1 trillion.

28:39Nope. That'd be $2 .3 trillion.

28:42I couldn't be more wrong.

28:44More wrong. And guess what?

28:46After 20 years in a fight there, we ended up giving it back to the

28:49Taliban, left them $86 billion.

28:53And now there are roughly 20 to 23 ,000 terrorists, you know, different organizations and

29:01whole list. Go check out Sarah Adams to get the whole list of who's trained

29:04in there, right? And by the way, they do say that some of the people

29:08that perpetrated October 7th in Israel had trained or received training from people or trained

29:13in Afghanistan, which by the way, is bordered right next to where?

29:18Iran. And also, if you go to the other side of Iran, what's that border

29:23to, right? Iraq and Iraq is bordered to Syria.

29:28And who's in charge of Syria now?

29:30The former head of Al Qaeda in Iraq.

29:34And guess who's in charge of Iran now?

29:37All of the Iranian proxies from eastern Iran that came in through Maqtada al -Assad,

29:44those home networks. Now, they're basically, they've taken over Iraq, right?

29:50I'm just trying to map out the strategic layout of that region and what we

29:56would face. Okay. All right.

30:00Let's talk about, we already went through, let's talk, all right, here we go.

30:05Let's talk about just some strategic concepts to get your mind thinking again.

30:10All right. Pull up that map of Iran again for me, would you?

30:14I want to just keep doing this for people to get this visualization.

30:18All right. Now, if you can't identify where Iran is on the map, then you

30:25need work, right? So a pretty unbelievable place.

30:31Yep. Bring up that one that has kind of the color structure and relief right

30:35there. That's a good one to start with.

30:37So if you look at that, obviously, if you look at the topographical relief, what

30:44you're looking for is variations in terms of terrain, because this steeper the terrain, the

30:50harder it is to fight, right?

30:53And then you have to, because what are you doing?

30:55You're going to have to invade.

30:57So there'll be invasion points, right?

31:00So there'll be a waterborne invasion from our aircraft carriers offshore, right?

31:06Maybe landing in, we'll have helicopter landing, waterborne invasions, maybe like D -Day and stuff

31:13back in the day. Maybe through the Caspian Sea up top, we do have relationship

31:19with Azerbaijan and some of those other countries, maybe a waterborne from up north.

31:26But essentially what you need is you need to be able to position your forces

31:31in a place that can amass, scale it up like we did in Kuwait, right?

31:38Or we did in Uzbekistan.

31:40We certainly didn't amass them in Pakistan for Afghanistan.

31:43We didn't amass them in Iran for anything, right?

31:47What did we do? We captured Bagram Airfield and then we started, you know, landing

31:52C -17s, C -5s, C -130s, and just tons of air supply planes with materials.

32:04Because guess what? Your soldiers need to eat.

32:07They need to drink water.

32:08They need more bullets. They need more kit.

32:11They need to take rest.

32:12They need equipment that they can drive around through terrain, right?

32:18It's a logistic thing. So you have to think.

32:21Now, while you're looking at that map right there, I want you to think, right?

32:26Iran, in particular Tehran, there are these massive, massive mountain chains.

32:31There's the Zagros Mountains and the Alborz Mountains, which is basically like a natural fortress.

32:38And by the way, Iran is four times the size of Iraq.

32:43there's a 1500 kilometer mountain wall on the western approach right that just right there

32:54and the country is 1 .65 million square kilometers with a population in the high

33:0180 low low 90 millions right that's 68 percent larger than iraq and afghanistan combined

33:12right combined with 40 more people and i also want you to think that remember

33:17iraq had a a big dispersion of people you had sunni shia baathis right uh

33:25afghanistan you had uh the northern alliance the the the pastyuan people then you had

33:33the kind of the sunni radicals that had been flowing in the former muhajidin and

33:37then you had all these tribal regions spread out as well too that were basically

33:41independent governor governments right all right and iran these people are pretty unified now granted

33:49we've seen uprisings we've seen people in the streets the whole thing but i don't

33:53want you to go too far overboard with your valuation of that potentiality like like

33:58we're gonna you know sneak through these mountain passes which are are pretty radical in

34:04terms of the heights and i'll get to that in a bit of uh and

34:07and what it might look like now so so far in in the war in

34:11iran we have you know 19 usa uh us members that have been kia we've

34:17spent roughly what 120 billion dollars or something like that and climbing each day five

34:23to seven billion a day um now the rough estimated people are throwing around right

34:29here low end 1 .5 trillion high end five trillion and that's just in these

34:36immediate futures right um now the key number this is what you got to think

34:41about because you got to think about your grandson your granddaughter now right because they're

34:49involving women in combat operations and they're going to need every every single one of

34:54them we got roughly what maybe 1 .3 million people in our military right now

34:58across all the branches and then who knows with contractors you could flex certainly um

35:04but right now you only have about 1 .3 and then you have to think

35:08about the next thing right you have to think about where they're stationed how long

35:14does it take to mobilize the sizable force you would need to enter into iran

35:20and sweep through village to village city to city right region to region to capture

35:27the strategic right initiatives in all over the country and and how would you do

35:34that and and granted they've already had these plans they've had these plans for years

35:38and years and years all right so rough estimates it estimations it's somewhere between 500

35:46to 1 million troops for the invasion all right now let's talk about i'm going

35:53to put this into a frame of reference for you so during the g watt

35:57probably you know socom special operations command flexed to somewhere between 70 to 80 000

36:06personnel right with you know and you think oh well you know we've got all

36:12these special operations guys that are just killing it right at a height during the

36:19g watt in the teams i think we had a maxed out somewhere around like

36:23maxed out numbers somewhere around 36 37 3800 dudes and not all those guys are

36:31operational right only at the teams in the platoons they're operational everybody else's logistics or

36:38support or admin or whatever so of the set let's call socom 70 000 75

36:45000 personnel right and they just did a big socom brief you can go just

36:49go into x and type in socom congressional brief and that you can hear all

36:55the uh seal admiral and some generals talk about the current state of socom and

37:00their operational capabilities right you gotta listen closely to their answers because there's always some

37:05military jargon they throw in there all right so you've got the rough estimate 500

37:12000 to a million you're gonna need with logistics to put these people in there

37:17and and the contracting jordy we look up i didn't i didn't do this one

37:21you look up how many at the height of the g watt in both iraq

37:25and afghanistan how many u .s contractors were employed all right all right so now

37:34let's take a look tactically at the iranian military presence all right so they have

37:40this kind of dual structure right they have the artesh which is the regular army

37:44rough estimates about 350 000 regular conventional forces all right now the irgc is about

37:52125 to 190 000 and these are your asymmetric your operators if you will right

37:58who who answer to the supreme ayatollah all right now the irgc is not your

38:03typical military it's like i said it's like their soft unit right and their intelligence

38:08they're in charge of their their economics they're ideal their idea Logical enforcer of what

38:12the Aitollahs want, right? And they control about 30 % of Iran's economy.

38:17What number did you get there for me, buddy?

38:20All right. So the key numbers are in the Iraq peak, the DOD employed 155

38:27,826 private contractors in Iraq alongside 150 ,000 -ish troops.

38:33Afghanistan peak, private security contractors alone peaked over 28 ,000.

38:37Total peaked around 117 ,000 in 2012.

38:43Combined GWAT total, there's not a clean number, but you're talking between 1 ,000 and

38:48200 ,000. So let's triple that for Iran, right?

38:52Triple it. Let's triple that.

38:55And trust me, there's a lot of dudes that would throw their kit back on

38:58for sure if this reduced to a ground engagement as well.

39:04But there's also a lot who wouldn't, by the way.

39:06And I'll get to that politically here.

39:08All right. Then you've got the Quds Force, right?

39:10And this is their elite troops.

39:12These are the guys that were making the EMP or the EFPs and the VBIDs

39:19and all the real technical efficient explosive devices, improvised explosive device that killed so many

39:25American troops in Iraq and Afghanistan too, and out in Herat and that area as

39:30well. So, you know, think about these guys.

39:35And, you know, these are the people who train the Hezbollah, Hamas, the Iraqi PMF,

39:42the Houthis, right? And these are those kind of guerrilla forces.

39:48These are your ground branch guys, your special mission units who use local forces.

39:55So they'd go out into all these different regions in Iran and we pull up

40:00how many different regions are there in Iran too as well.

40:03And they'll go and they'll train the civilians in there to wage what?

40:08A counterinsurgency warfare. Now, if I say counterinsurgency, hopefully that's triggering your head back to

40:152004 when we had four contractors from Blackwater get stopped in Fallujah, gunned up, had

40:26their bodies taken out, mutilated, burned to death, and hung from the bridge there, which

40:32kicked off the Battle of Fallujah and really launched.

40:35Yeah, go for it. So Iran has 31 provinces, which are the primary administrative divisions.

40:43In 2014, those 31 provinces were grouped into five administrative regions.

40:48You've got, it's basically Northwest, Northwest, South, and East.

40:52I'll show that on the screen.

40:54So there you go. And there you have it.

40:56So each one of those will be decentralized and act as its own military command

41:00center for the region. So they have different regional protective defensive programs or tactics or

41:07systems in place for each region.

41:10And also each region has their fair share of drone production capability and drone reserves

41:17and missile reserves, as well as explosives, right?

41:20These IEDs or VBIDs or all these different ways to engage, plus anything that are

41:26going to be fed through their lines through these different areas around.

41:31Remember, China also owns Bagram Air Base now in Afghanistan, so they can fly stuff

41:37into Afghanistan and then either fly it or truck it over to the border of

41:42Herat or fly into Herat because there's an airport in Herat.

41:45We built one there, too.

41:46And they can basically just funnel as much as they want in to support these

41:51regions. Now, obviously, we'll set up, you know, defensive or try and interrupt those supply

41:56routes. We'll do overflights and, you know, and those types of restrictive supply.

42:03We'll cut off those supply chains as much as possible.

42:06But still, in any counterinsurgency, rat lines become all over, especially if you have the

42:11will of the people that don't want to be conquered.

42:15They will participate in that.

42:17All right. Let's see. We talked about Iraq, Iran's missile defenses, all this stuff.

42:27Obviously, we've destroyed much of their air force, much, probably all their air force, all

42:32their navy. But again, all you need is a fishing junk filled with 500 pounds

42:38of C -4, and you've got the USS coal bombing that took place pre -9

42:43-11. All right. Now, total active members, something like 610 ,000, maybe 960 with reserves.

42:52It's pretty substantial. All right.

42:55Let's talk geography again. All right.

42:56The Zagros Mountains, a 1 ,500 -kilometer wall along the entire western border with peaks

43:04up to 4 ,000 meters.

43:07All right. I don't know about anybody.

43:10Jordy, give me that mathematician.

43:12What's 4 ,000 meters and feet, buddy?

43:15Was that 12 ,000 or so?

43:1712 ,000 feet. You ever tried to operate at 12 ,000 feet, bud?

43:21I don't think I've ever been 12 ,000 feet if I was in an airplane.

43:25Yeah. I'll tell you what.

43:26It's not easy, right? Anything over 8 ,000 feet becomes more difficult.

43:32Anything over 9 ,000, you're starting to look at some type of potential SIPE or

43:37sudden -induced pulmonary edema. got all kinds of problems at altitude right plus mountain warfare

43:43is its own unique training right think 10th mountain group uh very famous group back

43:48in uh uh world war ii you know fighting in the swiss alps the french

43:53alps the italian alps i mean just incredibly difficult warfare um all right then you

43:58have the alborz mountains uh to protect tehran from the north there's a whole northern

44:03mountain change that you have to get over to hit tehran too and these peaks

44:08go up to 5600 meters we're that's almost what 16 000 feet or something like

44:15that i i'm out count me out dude which essentially creates a natural fortress now

44:21again shock and awe everybody's gonna say right you just shock and all the hell

44:25out of the city and flatten the city um and and then what do you

44:30do you enrage populations you whatever you know now you got this counterinsurgency nightmare all

44:35right you know there's also there's two big deserts in iran that that cause issues

44:40if you go back and you think about uh desert eager desert claw which was

44:44the failed uh rescue temp from delta for the iran hostage crisis they were out

44:49in the desert they had a helicopter hit a a refueling uh thing and it

44:53blew up and and people died and they had to cancel that rescue that hostage

44:57rescue so those deserts again those you know jordi will show you some pictures of

45:02the desert it's hard to operate out in the open in the desert for sure

45:06um so again you know the bottom line is this i think these these estimates

45:15and you know i tried to search like rand group uh ccis and some other

45:20you know think tanks in terms of my analysis and where i was pulling from

45:24but the rough estimate they believe or they're saying is about 500 000 to a

45:29million u .s ground troops that means a draft there's no ifs ands buts that

45:37means a draft if you get up to a million that means draft and remember

45:41at its height in um in vietnam i think we had something like 600 700

45:49000 people in vietnam at one point right what was the max number of u

45:55.s personnel in iraq and afghanistan in 2011 jordi would you tell me that please

46:00all right now here's the other thing um if you were not to do a

46:09draft and you pulled our troops from all over the world right germany uh south

46:14korea japan australia uh guam everything put everybody in theater what happens to our capabilities

46:24to protect taiwan or to protect uh uh to support ukraine because you ain't gonna

46:30be able to support ukraine anymore if we go all in on a war here

46:33i'll tell you that right now and it doesn't seem like there's a lot of

46:37support you got that for us what is it what was it i do so

46:40the the the peak in terms of personnel was actually 2007 and 2008 uh so

46:46the peak was about 168 000 troops plus roughly 150 000 contractors in iraq in

46:55iraq at the peak yeah at its peak and that was way bigger than afghanistan

46:59so all right so just think again numbers think about numbers and logistics wars are

47:05won and lost by logistics it's a numbers game it's always a numbers game and

47:12if you don't believe me just go back and read a freaking history book okay

47:19it's there it's all there for you so when you start to get into this

47:24like but we're the us day man we can kick anybody's ass like and whole

47:30right and whole you have to think realistically and warfare is logistics plain and simple

47:38right all right so again and then the last little piece say we we amass

47:47this this group we send them in then there's also all the other regional players

47:53that could come to help them as well too that are trained in counterinsurgency guerrilla

47:59warfare that could wreak havoc you don't need a lot of fighters to wreak havoc

48:04against u .s personnel there's time and time again where you've seen it right where

48:11you've seen it happen and now with drone technology it's it's it's it's it's pretty

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49:19Terms and conditions apply. Hey, it's Bobby Bones from The Bobby Bones Show.

49:24You know, Eddie and I recently stopped by Yeah in Nashville.

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49:31Thanks to Hyundai, we recorded a special podcast episode while we were there.

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54:37Hoo -yah. Now you got to start to think, all right, what would be the

54:40economic fallout of all this?

54:42And I'm going to go through this pretty quick.

54:43All right. So some of the things that you want to really think about is

54:46what were some of the ideas that took place economically?

54:50So first Gulf War, Gulf War, Desert Storm, first one.

54:55All right. Basically, it was a short war, right?

54:58Yes, oil popped a little bit, but afterwards, there was a huge, huge rally in

55:04the S &P 500, came back strong.

55:08Now, the year later, and essentially after 91, 92, we went into an inflationary place,

55:15and that was probably from all the spending that was kind of hidden that came

55:20up to speed. You had the savings and loans, 87.

55:23You had the covert war in Afghanistan.

55:25There were some other economic challenges that took place during that time.

55:30But again, wars typically, short wars boost economy.

55:35Now what I want to do is I want to talk about defense spending, okay?

55:39So defense spending, basically 2001, two years prior to, but we started 9 -11, defense

55:51spending was $335 billion a year.

55:53By 2007, that number had gone to $557 billion, all right?

56:00There you go. Great graph up there.

56:02And so when you look at defense spending in the Afghanistan war prior to, 292,

56:10same thing. By the end, up to five, what is that?

56:13Five? 506 billion. 506 billion, all right?

56:18First war, it actually dropped post -war.

56:22But again, we weren't even talking.

56:24We were talking about such a de minimis fight there.

56:27And it wasn't a full regime change.

56:29Remember, we went in, punched him in his nose, got Kuwait back, and then took

56:33off. All right. By the way, this is per year.

56:36Yes. Yeah, yeah. Sorry, I wasn't clear.

56:39This is per year, right?

56:40Now, where are we right now?

56:44President just requested, we're close to a trillion dollars a year in spending now, 900

56:50and some odd billion. And the president just requested to go up to a $1

56:53.5 billion spend on defense.

56:57Maybe he knew, had a little premonition of what was to come or not.

57:02But think about that. And that's, you know, again, what is it potentially going to

57:07happen for defense spending here, right?

57:12So rough estimate, if ground troops go in, history says oil is going to go

57:20skyrocket over 100 barrels. Let me go back.

57:25And I just want to talk about oil prices.

57:29Iraq War II. And this is one's key, right?

57:32In 2020, 2002, one year prior to the Iraq War, oil was $26 a barrel,

57:43right? 2003, it went to 2031.

57:48It rose throughout the year.

57:5004, $42. 05, $57. 06, $66.

57:5607, 72. And then spiked to what?

58:00$147 a barrel in 2008.

58:05What also happened in 2008, Jordy?

58:10There's a movie about it.

58:12Yeah. Great movie. The big short, the big short, a massive economic collapse we had.

58:19Now, is that going to necessarily happen?

58:22I've talked to certain economists who believe we're already on the precipice of an economic

58:27collapse or recession, minimally. Maybe a depression.

58:31Obviously, we've got the AI laying off thousands of jobs.

58:37We've got the market kind of weighted in only seven, the super seven, the stocks,

58:44the tech stocks. We've got a massive problem going on in commercial real estate, devaluation.

58:50And in many places, they believe that we're in a home sale, economic sales.

58:56There are way more sellers than buyers out there right now.

58:59So we're all teetering and flirting with this whole thing, right?

59:05Now, I will say this, that when the military industrial complex gets ramped up and

59:10starts producing, we can shift to a war industry, a war footing economically, which can

59:16have some benefits. But, again, long -term impacts do not generally are favorable for oil

59:25prices as well as the markets, all right?

59:29Now, the other challenge is long -term spending in terms of our overall deficit.

59:36Obviously, we're coming up. We're right around $39 trillion.

59:40High probability we'll cross $40 trillion in debt.

59:43Now, again, we have to pay interest on that debt, and the interest payments are

59:49skyrocketing right now. So that's a factor, too, in all this.

59:53You combine that with global debt.

59:55Oh, you pulled up the infamous debt clock on me, buddy.

59:58What's that sucker say over there?

1:00:00How close are we to it?

1:00:01we went over 39 right oh yeah we're just over 39 just over 39 congratulations

1:00:08yeah yeah who yeah everybody your kids have 600 000 in debt before they even

1:00:14get out of middle school all right the other challenge you ought to think about

1:00:18is what is it how does it affect politically right that's the last little piece

1:00:23and i'll be quick about this i'll wrap this up in the next few minutes

1:00:25all right politically first and foremost if you look at the first gulf war right

1:00:31status storm one we had a good little coalition going in right there right to

1:00:35in particular the uk because they had very strategic in uh initiatives with their energy

1:00:42production in the region as well too when you look at afghanistan we had a

1:00:48massive coalition right iraq things shrunk down and what we've seen over the last few

1:00:54weeks is a very substantial pushback from our nato members and now that our gulf

1:01:01coast uh gulf state um uh collective of group they're all pretty pissed off right

1:01:08now um but what's going to happen is we're going to be at this thing

1:01:12by ourselves trump just went out and basically called everybody cowards because nobody wants to

1:01:18dedicate warships to open up the straits of hormuz because they don't want to jeopardize

1:01:22their personnel because what happens if they do it destroys them politically and i also

1:01:28think there's some games and ship going on with the nato allies because they're pissed

1:01:32trump said well we're not gonna keep spending all the money for ukraine you guys

1:01:36got a pony up too uh and if you don't you've probably forgotten already just

1:01:41four or five months ago nato is coming out and saying we don't need america

1:01:45we're gonna increase to 800 billion dollars annually for our defense spending meanwhile the uk

1:01:50has what 100 000 or so troops right you think they're gonna go into an

1:01:57enlistment or a conscription to support a war in iran hell no they're not going

1:02:02to do that this is our war we own it all right okay so the

1:02:10worldwide geopolitics is very problematic right there's already been a huge push with bricks the

1:02:17initiative of bricks to start driving away from the dollar being the reserve currency now

1:02:22typically in global conflicts the dollar gains strength uh and and remains in particular within

1:02:29uh energy sectors which is a lot of what the everybody's paying the close attention

1:02:34to but if energy gets to two hundred dollars a barrel or more and by

1:02:39the way we can be self -sustained in america especially with our new deal with

1:02:43with uh venezuela because we have refineries in the gulf that are designed for that

1:02:48heavy crude to refine that so regionally with our own energy production we should be

1:02:53good but what happens is we lose prowess overseas in particular china's probably still purchasing

1:03:00uh uh oil from a bunch of different people in the uh russia is can

1:03:05produce its own oil all through there uh and you know we have all these

1:03:09other um ways to go around uh but again the energy crisis is going to

1:03:15affect everyone including what supply chains again we saw how catastrophically weak we were during

1:03:23covid when those supply chains got shut down and guess what do you think china

1:03:29could start to pinch our supply chain a little bit or india pinch our supply

1:03:33chain so you got to think about fertilizer you got to think about all the

1:03:37different chemicals and things that we import around that area of the world and that

1:03:42being reduced dramatically in an already kind of economy we got right going right now

1:03:48all right politically in the united states domestically we're already seeing it happen right uh

1:03:55i i you you might not believe so but i'm telling you here i pay

1:03:59attention uh the maga coalition is broken hands down i hate to be the bearer

1:04:05of bad news i hate to tell you what you don't want to hear but

1:04:08if you don't start paying attention to this you're you're you're living in a in

1:04:13a siloed perspective the maga coalition is broken you've got an anti -war group you've

1:04:21got an anti -israeli government group you've got uh uh you know a pro trump

1:04:28at all costs you know you've got america first group you've got all these factions

1:04:34now that are out and then on the flip side of that you've got the

1:04:38the democrats where all the pressure and all the eyes are on that they're regrouping

1:04:42right now they're regrouping around all this messaging and you're starting to see that take

1:04:47place on capitol hill so whereas we thought we had them completely defeated if we

1:04:53lose the house which most people are predicting in 26 and that's not coming from

1:04:59democratic polling and by the way i hate polling it's just ridiculous but we you

1:05:03know when we when polling suits us we love it when polling doesn't we call

1:05:06it bull all polling's bull it is what it is you gotta be paying attention

1:05:11to the sentiments of what's taking place on people who are in quotation influencers or

1:05:17the new media the new media is where you're hearing the sentiment of what's going

1:05:21on just look at legacy media the last three elections completely living in la la

1:05:27land well guess what now How's your turn to come out of La La Land

1:05:31and start paying attention to independent media?

1:05:34Because that's what you have to pay attention.

1:05:36The numbers, the sheer scale of numbers.

1:05:39Let's just take Megyn Kelly's number.

1:05:41In one month, Megyn Kelly did like 157 million downloads on her show.

1:05:49That's every major news outlet all combined.

1:05:53And she still defeated them.

1:05:55One person. So if you still think that Fox is relevant, CNN is relevant, MSNBC

1:06:01is relevant, Newsmax is relevant, any of that, you're out of your mind, right?

1:06:07People are sourcing the information, especially young people.

1:06:10And by the way, they are a significant voter block.

1:06:14They're bigger than you, boomers.

1:06:16If you're a boomer and you're listening to this, Gen Z and millennials, they're a

1:06:20bigger contingency of voters than you are.

1:06:24And they're not paying attention to Fox.

1:06:27They're not watching any of this.

1:06:28And they're pissed off. I'm telling you, they are.

1:06:31Yes, there is a big group out there that is go America, as am I,

1:06:35right? I want America to win always.

1:06:38I'm not a Ayatollah sympathizer.

1:06:41I'm not anti -Semitic. What I am is a realist.

1:06:45Because why? Because I've seen 22 years of combat and the GWAT and what it

1:06:50did to our forces, what it did to our economy, what it did to our

1:06:53debt, and what it did to our population in terms of skepticism for what?

1:06:58New regime change wars. And that's what's taking place right now.

1:07:05So we will know soon enough.

1:07:07We will know in November of 2026, the profound impact.

1:07:12Now, if we lose the House and we lose the Senate, I guarantee you Donald

1:07:18Trump will be impeached. I guarantee it multiple times, right?

1:07:24This is going to. Plus, all funding will be shut down for this war.

1:07:29They'll stop funding it. They'll stop doing this.

1:07:31Maybe. I don't know. Usually when people come out and bark a big game, but

1:07:35if they've got some military component in their region or area, they're going to still,

1:07:41in private, vote for more funding because it helps their constituents.

1:07:45It's just the state of the world.

1:07:46All right. But I will tell you this.

1:07:49It certainly will make 28 a much more difficult reality for Republicans.

1:07:56All right. That was a lot of information.

1:07:59I've been going for about an hour.

1:08:01I hope you have some more context in this.

1:08:05A ground invasion of Iran is a multi -year, million -plus, and I, my estimation,

1:08:17we would probably lose 100 ,000, 200 ,000 ground force troops in that three to

1:08:29four, three to five year period, right?

1:08:32Because this is not like anything we've ever engaged in.

1:08:35It's not Iraq. It's not like it's not Sudan.

1:08:39It's not Libya. It's not Syria, right?

1:08:43It's none of that. This is the next level of technological warfare in the modern

1:08:51era. And we would have to throw millions of our young men and women at

1:08:59this effort in order to be able to eradicate the regime, hold it for a

1:09:06long period of time, and figure out how to install somebody in a country, 90

1:09:13million -plus people. You've got to figure 80 % of them are diehard Shia Islamists

1:09:19or supportive. And after we go in and we kill a couple hundred thousand or

1:09:23a million civilians, women and children, now all of a sudden you hyper -radicalize an

1:09:28entire country, the oldest, longest -running culture and society in human history, against the great

1:09:37Satan, America itself. So that's a sobering thought.

1:09:44I'm just once again trying to contextualize this.

1:09:47Is there a high potential for victory?

1:09:51It depends on how you gauge what victory is.

1:09:55What is mission success for you?

1:09:57Is mission success, does it look like Afghanistan?

1:10:00Does mission success look like Iraq?

1:10:04Does mission success look like Vietnam?

1:10:07Does mission success look like Korea?

1:10:10What does mission success look like?

1:10:12And if you're old enough to remember or you've studied enough, if mission success is

1:10:18World War II, we lost over 400 ,000 people and another millions affected long -term

1:10:28for that type of engagement.

1:10:30Right? Again, I just want to be a realist.

1:10:34I want to give you some context.

1:10:36If you're gung -ho about waging a ground war in Iran, what's some ideas that

1:10:42you need to process and think about?

1:10:45All right. Thank you so much for tuning in with us, Jordy.

1:10:48Once again, thanks for all your help, buddy.

1:10:51I love doing a show with you.

1:10:52I hope you all enjoyed this.

1:10:55If you learned something new, please share it with someone.

1:10:57buddy, a friend, uh, super easy.

1:10:59Just clink the licks below, clink the licks below, or follow us on all social

1:11:03media sites at David Rutherford show or on X at D Rutherford, or follow me

1:11:08at team frog logic on X on, on, uh, uh, Facebook team frog logic and

1:11:15on, um, Instagram, uh, at team frog logic for posts and ideas behind this.

1:11:22And, uh, I just am so thankful for you and, and I just my prayers

1:11:27are that, that God can come down and generate some peace in that region.

1:11:32Uh, and we can, uh, go back to some civility, uh, and, and young people

1:11:37can stop dying at scale.

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David Rutherford Show: What a Ground Invasion of Iran Would Actually Looks Like