Buck Brief - Trump Demands Iran's Unconditional Surrender
3/9/202618 mincomplete
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3:05You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast.
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3:12your podcasts. President Trump demands unconditional surrender from Iran as the air campaign of U
3:21.S. and Israeli strikes intensifies.
3:25We are walloping them. That much is clear.
3:27Secretary of War Hegseth has laid out that there is, first of all, no similar
3:34capability anywhere on the planet to what the U .S.
3:36and Israel have been able to bring to bear here.
3:38We are not even losing a single plane and destroying the entire military infrastructure of
3:45a nation of 90 million people in a pretty big country that had all kinds
3:50of access to Russian and Chinese and North Korean rocketry and surface -to -air missiles,
3:56air defense technology, and the Iranian regime is just being militarily, at least, defanged day
4:03after day. So Trump is now saying the mullahs have to just have an unconditional
4:08surrender and then this all stops.
4:11The big question here is who will take over if we get to that point.
4:16Now, this is likely to go on for weeks.
4:19This could go on for months.
4:21That is very much still an open question.
4:25I think based on the pace and scale of these strikes, the Iranian regime will
4:31cease to be in a position to assert meaningful control over large swaths of the
4:37country. Now, in the northwestern corner of Iran and near Kermanshah, there's a Kurdish pocket.
4:45It's about 15 % of the population of Iran is Kurdish and they will be
4:50able to stabilize that and this will be at least one area that I think
4:55we don't have to have very much concern over even if the government ceases to
5:00function in a security sense in Iran, which is what we want.
5:04But then we have to get into the other options.
5:06What else can happen here?
5:09And there are really a few different pathways.
5:11The one that is most likely is some kind of coup within the existing security
5:18forces. I'll break these down into three options, right?
5:20You have a coup within the existing security forces.
5:23This is the most likely because the military's institutional power there already are internal divisions
5:28and the strikes have eliminated key leaders so there's a leadership vacuum that we've created
5:34uh within the structure as it exists and so the irgc the islamic revolutionary guard
5:42corps or the conventional army which they call the artesh could be the primary force
5:46here you basically have somebody from inside who goes all right we're going to get
5:49rid of the bums who have been in charge we're going to we're going to
5:52stop trying to fight against america and fight against israel and we're just going to
5:56say enough is enough um this pragmatic group would have to have control over much
6:04of the regular army seize government buildings and media outlets and say it's essentially a
6:09restoration of order and part of a transition process so that would be this is
6:16the most likely one uh this is the one that we would like that we
6:21would hope would happen and the external pressure that we're putting on the regime in
6:25iran is meant to bring this about i think most likely uh and the big
6:30pitfall here rather the the huge challenge is you want to avoid factional infighting that
6:37then just turns into something more like a civil war right different groups within are
6:41shooting at each other and fighting over power um another option that people will be
6:46talking about i think is probably less likely is a monarchist restoration led by reza
6:53pahlavi and supporters so you have the exiled crown prince reza pahlavi he has symbolic
6:59appeal amongst some iranian nationalists and the diaspora community of iran and there are some
7:05protesters who are also supportive we've seen that how many that's tougher um but if
7:10you're looking for a pre -1979 throwback government if you will the shah is obviously
7:16something that you could look to and with these protests that have been happening on
7:22the streets if they were to combine with security forces defecting to them let's say
7:26defecting to some of these factions that are pro -shah then maybe there could be
7:32um the usage of social media and essentially a popular uprising from the streets but
7:39also from the outside uh supported by the diaspora groups and by those who want
7:45the shah in power and the idea i think would be he comes back as
7:48a transitional figurehead to establish a constitutional monarchy or a secular democracy of some kind
7:54and there'd have to be a national referendum you'd want to make this look legitimate
7:57and this would require some international backing but i think that would be easy for
8:02the regional players to throw their hat into and and yeah who's going to oppose
8:06democracy and self -rule for the people of of iran uh so that's another option
8:12and uh the then finally there's insiders like reformist clerics uh or irgc commanders who
8:23come forward and push and basically say look we we surrender but we want to
8:28work with the system that we have here uh with obviously negotiation steps with uh
8:36with the us with israel um probably just with the us in the early days
8:40and and try to get to some form of of national election this is i
8:46think the least likely version of it but it's essentially the system itself says we've
8:52taken out all our leaders we give up we don't need to storm the government
8:57palaces and everything else we're we're willing to play ball it's like it's like iran
9:02cries uncle with the people who are in charge i think this is very unlikely
9:06but if you have economic collapse and just fatigue with all the strikes this uh
9:12this could happen so those are some of the ways that uh you're certainly not
9:16going to have some external force i don't think you're going to have us boots
9:20on the ground there i think that's a terrible idea uh maybe in a very
9:24limited capacity like we had in syria at some point to sort of direct airstrikes
9:29and but no we're not going to be policing the streets of tehran with 19
9:34year olds from you know from kansas and from maine and from oregon you know
9:40we're not going to be doing that i think the administration recognizes that's a disaster
9:43politically a disaster from a national security perspective so this is where we are with
9:50iran right now continuing airstrikes and trying to form some kind of opposition and transition
9:55the iranian nation state into a whole new era it's uh high stakes let's talk
10:04venezuela next and then also a little cuba doing a bit of a deep dive
10:07into national security here but uh gold look at the price of of oil and
10:13look at how instability makes that go up you know what also goes up when
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10:54check them out. And now let's talk Venezuela.
10:57Now, Venezuela, I think, is a very positive story right now.
11:01After the capture of Maduro and his wife, by the way, didn't get as much
11:05attention in the media, but Celia Flores from Caracas, they were extradited to the U
11:09.S. They faced narco -terrorism charges.
11:12Currently, Vice President Delce Rodriguez is the interim vice president.
11:16She was sworn in. Supreme Court of Venezuela has backed this.
11:19A lot of the Maduro cabinet and even the ruling party there, and the U
11:25.S. has said, look, we're going to work with you on this, okay?
11:29So they already have the infrastructure in place, the political infrastructure, and now this means
11:35that some opposition figures have been sidelined here, like Machado and Gonzalez, but this is,
11:44I think, the smarter play right now.
11:46They should be, those opposition figures, I'm sure, are going to be able to run
11:49in the next election, but instead of throwing things into chaos right now in Venezuela,
11:53it's let's stabilize things. And the big news that came out this week is the
11:59U .S. and Venezuela have agreed to reestablish full diplomatic and consular relations, the first
12:05time since 2019. And you've already had Secretary Burgum meet with Rodriguez in Caracas to
12:11talk about mining access and resource deals, and Venezuela has signed agreements for gold sales
12:17to the U .S., oil sector privatization reforms to get more investment.
12:21So they realize, get the trade going, get the oil flowing, get the money transactions
12:26happening, and everything starts to become more possible and more, you know, the future starts
12:31to look brighter. There's also been an amnesty process that 3 ,200 people, political prisoners,
12:37a lot of them, have been released in Venezuela.
12:42So there's no immediate presidential elections plan.
12:46The focus is really on stability right now in Venezuela, but this is moving the
12:52way you'd want it to move for the benefit of the Venezuelan people.
12:57You know, we basically just removed the bad apple, and it doesn't look like we
13:04have to do more than that right now.
13:07We can work with what's there, and that, I think, could lead us in a
13:11very positive direction. We'll talk Cuba here in a second, but that's also a place
13:18that's obviously getting a lot of attention from the administration.
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14:00PureTalk, America's wireless company. And now we have Cuba, which is in the midst of
14:07a U .S. fuel blockade.
14:09So no more oil imports from Venezuela to prop them up.
14:12No more commies helping commies with that stuff.
14:15And Mexico is getting U .S.
14:17pressure to stop supplying Cuba with oil.
14:19So they have huge fuel shortages, blackouts rolling up to 20 hours a day in
14:24some places, canceled flights and tourism, services paralyzing.
14:28I mean, Cuba is just in a really rough state right now.
14:32They've had all kinds of shortages of food and medicine.
14:34Inflation is rampant. GDP is contracting dramatically.
14:38And Trump has said that the regime is going to fall soon.
14:42And Secretary of State Rubio has even said, you know, maybe we need to do
14:46some kind of a, quote, friendly takeover.
14:48So U .S. officials are thinking about criminal charges against Cuban leaders.
14:52So they want regime change this year in Cuba.
14:56And this is great to see if it happens.
15:02The Cuban regime is disgusting and despotic and has ruined what is otherwise a beautiful
15:07country with wonderful people. So another place here where Trump is playing a high -stakes
15:12game, but I think so far he's playing it very well, we could have a
15:17different government in 2026 than we had in 2025 and a much better one aligned
15:24with global norms and not American values per se, but just sort of more normal
15:28civilizational values, rule of law values in Iran, in Venezuela, and in Cuba, which would
15:36be an incredible transformation of the global national security situation, have effects on China, have
15:45effects on Russia, have effects on all these other national security challenges that we have.
15:53So it could be great.
15:54Hopefully it'll be great. And that is our Deep Dive National Security Brief.
15:59Talk to you soon. Shields high.
16:01Hi, it's Kristen Davis from R U .S.
16:03Charlotte Podcast. I just had the most epic Girls' Day cruising around L .A.
16:08with my friend Heather Graham.
16:10And thanks to Hyundai, we even recorded a special episode for you.
16:14Sex and the City got me into Magnolia Bakery.
16:16Cupcakes, which I'm obsessed with.
16:18The last time we did a Hyundai film movie.
16:20We went to the Magnolia, we sat on the bench.
16:23My new episode is out now, presented by the all -new Hyundai Palisade Hybrid.
16:28Make every day epic. It's time for a little spring cleaning, and we know right
16:33where to start. Find your old dated wireless contract in your file drawer and wipe
16:37the dust off with a rag.
16:39Then freshen things up by switching to Pure Talk, the wireless company we both trust.
16:43Pure Talk gives you unlimited talk, text, and plenty of data for just $25 a
16:49month. Just go to puretalk .com slash buck and save 50 % off your first
16:54month. That's puretalk .com slash B -U -C -K to switch to Pure Talk.
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