Buck Brief - Will the Iran Ceasefire Hold and What's Next?
4/10/202622 mincomplete
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3:26your podcasts. So is the ceasefire with Iran a big win for the Trump administration?
3:32Is it a loss? Is it somewhere in between?
3:37Well, my first answer is, we'll see.
3:42I don't think it's clear yet whether it's a win or a loss.
3:45I do know that there are some aspects of this that are concerning, and there
3:50are some ways in which this has very much gone according to plan for the
3:54administration. Let's break this down.
3:56Let's have this conversation now, and we'll see where my analysis is in a week
4:02or two. We've been told that, as of today, this ceasefire goes into effect.
4:10Iran will let ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and there's a lot going
4:19on here. First of all, what is supposed to happen from here on out?
4:25There's a negotiation that will take place for two weeks.
4:28As part of that negotiation, the Iranians have put forward a 10 -point plan that
4:35is farcical from the perspective of the United States.
4:39Now, maybe that's just a negotiating ploy.
4:42Fine. But why would they put forward something that I think America or the Trump
4:47administration is unlikely to meet them on a single of their deal points, or at
4:53least maybe only one or two?
4:55They want the right to enrich uranium.
4:59They want the ability to essentially operate the Strait of Hormuz like it's their own
5:05private little lake, and they can take tolls on ships that come in.
5:13They are going to keep their nukes, or rather I should say their nuclear program,
5:18such as it is existing still.
5:21The enriched uranium that they have, are they going to give...
5:24that up let me backtrack for a second because there's so many pieces here and
5:30what happens i think with a lot of people when they analyze this is they
5:32focus on one thing and they forget about all the things that are around it
5:35or because they want to either justify their point of view that this is a
5:38brilliant idea or this is a terrible idea they go with whatever will support their
5:43narrative and they leave out all the other pieces here's what i'd say about the
5:47trump iran war it's complicated it's complicated i think it was a gamble for president
5:54trump i think it's a gamble that has partially paid off and i think we
5:58don't know the full outcome yet there are still some very real risks i think
6:06the main risks are actually political to trump though so what's off the board what's
6:10off the board i think is catastrophic failure for trump meaning a ground invasion u
6:16.s troops in harm's way u .s troops kill uh getting killed in action i
6:20don't see that happening in any context here whatsoever so bush era iraq war disaster
6:28that's off the table so that's a win in a sense or at least that's
6:32a good thing that's off the table um what was the purpose of this we're
6:38being told now it wasn't really regime change but there was a lot of talk
6:41of regime change early on from the administration so clearly they wanted regime change but
6:48maybe that wasn't a top tier goal and they seem based on the reporting around
6:55this particularly new york times piece they seem to be willing to say that it's
7:01worth it to do this even if and this was their feeling this was trump's
7:05feeling most importantly worth it to do this even if it does not result in
7:09a regime change situation as long as we degrade their military capabilities uh substantially particularly
7:17with uh regard to the ballistic missiles program and we make it so they can
7:22never get a nuke i mean trump has said this over and over and over
7:28again um they trump has said they cannot get nukes he has made this the
7:39cornerstone i think of this whole effort and here's where i think the the risk
7:45remains um iran is not going to give up its nuclear material nor is it
7:53going to agree to the inspections and the other processes necessary to make it effectively
7:58in perpetuity impossible for iran to get nukes they're not going to do that and
8:04so since they're not going to do that in my view what cards do we
8:10have left to play against iran well we can continue and this is the threat
8:16now for two weeks we're saying we're going to negotiate and then we can hit
8:18them again the threat is that we're going to blow up more of their stuff
8:22but are we really going to blow up their civilian infrastructure i don't think so
8:26i think trump recognizes that that's not going to work either and also it's it's
8:33wrong worth saying that these are human beings in iran and there are a lot
8:41of people there that have nothing to do with the military or the irgc or
8:44any of this other stuff there are children there are babies there are elderly people
8:48like blowing up the power stations the water treatment plants here i think trump was
8:55blustering about that i do not believe he will do that under any circumstances the
8:59i'm telling you these are the assumptions that i'm working on i do not believe
9:02trump will do that under any circumstances so that said what is the lever that
9:06we're going to pull if we don't get a deal if iran doesn't agree to
9:10give up its nuclear ambitions and give up its enriched uranium which i do not
9:15but i i'm under the assumption that will not happen what do we do we
9:19can say well we're going to hit them again we're going to hit more of
9:21their military assets okay you know what they'll do they'll shut down the strait of
9:24hormuz now you can say oh but that will cut off their uh their economic
9:31lifeline to the rest of the world by selling oil yes but how does it
9:36play here at home if we go into the summer and we have more airstrikes
9:40against iran more instability oil prices going up and with no at that point it's
9:48very clear there's no guarantee that we're going to get rid of their nuclear program
9:52and everything we've done up to this point hasn't gotten rid of the nuclear program
9:55because we wouldn't be demanding concessions about their nuclear program if we had already achieved
10:01that objective so again when you unpack this piece by piece this is where i
10:08see all of this going um i don't think that the irani i don't think
10:12that the fundamental or the foundational goal of certainty that iran has no ability or
10:22a 99 certainty that it cannot go nuclear with a nuclear weapon i don't think
10:28this process of our airstrikes uh ends with that happening the iranians people say oh
10:34but their people are suffering they don't care they don't have elections the people in
10:39charge don't care how much suffering the average iranian is going through they probably welcome
10:43it think it's binding them all together so in that environment what are the options
10:50in that environment What are we going to do?
10:54And how much are we willing to risk a massive wipeout in the midterm elections
11:00here in the U .S.
11:03if all it means is we keep bombing stuff in Iran?
11:06This is war. I think it's costing a billion dollars a day as well.
11:10I read the New York Times report.
11:12You know what? I'm going to get more into that New York Times report in
11:13a second. But again, I'm trying to, I'm neither, I'm not, oh, this is great.
11:18Oh, this is terrible. I'm, this is war.
11:20It's complicated. There are some good aspects of this.
11:23There are some bad aspects of this.
11:25And there's still a lot to be decided.
11:29And, and I, I'm willing to embrace the complexity of this situation and not pretend
11:33that it's just amazing, amazing military stuff that we've just kicked ass and everything.
11:38Really? We've gotten everything we want.
11:40Why are we still negotiating if we've gotten everything we want?
11:42Because we haven't. So there's, there's some things here that are just undeniably true and
11:48that I think people don't want to hear on the pro and con or the,
11:51the support Trump, criticize Trump for this war sides.
11:56I think both of them aren't being fully honest about what's going on here.
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12:55Okay, so now we go to this New York Times reporting about all the different
12:58players here. J .D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump, the General Cain, Secretary Hegseth, all
13:06these different players, and it's reporting from essentially inside the Situation Room.
13:10So someone is the source.
13:11We could all guess who the source is, or we can have our guesses, I
13:15should say, as to who the source is, but someone is the source.
13:17So with all of that, one thing that comes up very early on is the
13:23widely believed sense that Netanyahu and Israel pushed very hard for this military action under
13:32the premise that there would be regime change.
13:36Now, they might have just been wrong on this one, but I think they were
13:40overselling it, and I think that comes across in the reporting.
13:43I think Israel really wanted us to help them take out Iran, and it was
13:47a better sell. It was the WMD moment, if you will.
13:51It was a better sell of the administration.
13:56And to really just convince, it's just a party of one here they need, which
14:00is Trump. Now, to convince Trump of this, they said, we think, the Israelis, Netanyahu
14:04specifically said, we think regime change is likely.
14:08I think that, unfortunately, that is, well, that has been proven to be untrue.
14:14It's certainly looking untrue. And I think that that should have been manifestly untrue from
14:19the beginning. So that's going to cause some problems going forward, because this isn't a
14:26war for Israel. But Israel pushed for this war, right?
14:31This is where you get into the nuance.
14:33This is where you get into, let's speak honestly about this.
14:35Israel wanted this war. I think that is a matter of public record.
14:39They're fighting in this war.
14:41They clearly wanted this war.
14:42How did they push Trump, and therefore the United States, to fight this war alongside
14:48them? I think the regime change claims were perhaps a bit exaggerated in some degree
14:56of self -interest with regard to that.
14:59Now, you can never really parse that stuff out.
15:01And I don't think that anyone can force Donald Trump to believe anything.
15:04I think that Trump has wanted to do this for a long time.
15:06I think he's sick of the Iranians speaking nonsense.
15:10But regime change is not happening.
15:12And you've started to hear this, well, it is a different regime because it's different
15:15people in charge. That's not how this works, okay?
15:17We mean a different governing ethos in Iran, some kind of a rule of law,
15:24representative democracy society, or even just a society that in the interim agrees that it
15:31does not have aggression against Israel and other neighbors and just wants to create a
15:39peaceful and prosperous society without constantly funding proxy groups and engaging in terrorism all over
15:45the world and all of that.
15:46We have not achieved that.
15:48And I don't think we're going to achieve that.
15:50So again, I go back to the scoreboard, if you will, for lack of a
15:54better way of putting it.
15:56We don't have regime change.
15:57I don't think we're going to get a guarantee of a non -nuclear Iran.
16:01They can shut down Hormuz, it seems, to pressure us very effectively, which is what
16:06has happened here. And they still have a 600 ,000 -man army on the ground
16:13there. They've gotten their surface -to -air missiles destroyed, their navy destroyed, their planes destroyed.
16:20They are on the ground there.
16:20We certainly have the GOAT, a kilowattоны of the modern - ζ version, the midlife
16:20Им borrowers destroyed okay but then again what are they going to use all that
16:26for right their their big threat i guess comes from us and from israel so
16:30as long as they're not going to be invaded and their regime stays in place
16:33i think the regime considers that a win this is very complex stuff i think
16:40that trump rolled the dice on this one and i don't think it worked out
16:42exactly as he hoped or anticipated it would yet that could change and i need
16:49someone to explain the fault in my logic here if they disagree with this because
16:53i keep hearing oh but look what we've done to their military i know we've
16:56absolutely obliterated some aspects of their military and we've taken out some of their senior
17:02leadership or or their absolute senior leadership and a big chunk of it fine well
17:07who's in charge now are they better if the answer is no and it looks
17:12like they still have a hold on the country how much does it really matter
17:14that we killed khamenei how much does it really matter and then if you start
17:21to look at things like what does this do to any sense going forward that
17:26there could be an iranian uprising against this i think those prospects are looking more
17:31bleak than ever in a sense if they weren't going to do it when they
17:34had america as their air force they're not going to do it in a few
17:37years when you got some democrat administration of race communists who don't give a crap
17:41what happens to the iranian people and think that we're the bad guys and everything
17:45including all interactions with iran and probably want to distance themselves from israel and all
17:49this and you know that's not going to be a better situation so we'll see
17:54we've got two weeks here of negotiating i think you're going to end this with
17:59two weeks of negotiating that results in a continuation of the ceasefire which results in
18:04a continuation of the strait of hormuz being opened and more talking about deal points
18:09and we'll be told through the summer that we're getting closer and closer to a
18:13deal this is a bit like what happened with dealing with putin and russia by
18:17the way we've been to this dance before but on the core points the core
18:22concessions there will be none from iran they will not concede on these things the
18:27only other alternative i see is they concede and then they just break they break
18:30the terms on it down the line that's possible too so i'm i'm coming to
18:38this from all angles if you think i'm wrong let me know but this isn't
18:42my first rodeo there's a lot of lessons learned from iraq and from the broader
18:47middle east that i think you can bring to bear on this all right gold
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