Buck Brief - Here's How to Fix Iran Cuba and Venezuela
4/21/202628 mincomplete
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2:56your podcasts. Has Trump already won the Iran war or what's going on here?
3:03Are we in a ceasefire?
3:04Are we not at a ceasefire?
3:06Do we have Iran right where we want them?
3:08We've got to bring in our friend Steve Yates here to make sense of all
3:12of this, and that is certainly what he does.
3:14He's a national security expert and host of the forthcoming Nation States with Yates podcast,
3:21which will be on the Clay and Buck podcast network.
3:23And we are very excited about that.
3:26Good, sir. Appreciate you making the time today.
3:29Well, thank you very much, Buck, and can't wait to get Nation States with Yates
3:33underway. Yeah, it's going to be exciting.
3:35Just a couple weeks out.
3:36You guys are going to love it.
3:36Deep dive. You're going to learn so much.
3:38You'll be smarter than all your friends on all the national security things, which is
3:41really that's the best reason to listen to a podcast.
3:43Be smarter than everybody else on stuff.
3:44So then you can just, you know, dunk on them when you're at, you know,
3:48barbecues and stuff. So here we go.
3:50Give me your like like the 30 ,000 foot view of where we are right
3:56now on the Iran deal, the conflict.
4:00How do you think it's looking?
4:02Well, I think from the highest level, President Trump accurately saw something that had been
4:08essentially running on autopilot for way too many decades, that some attempts at negotiations, direct,
4:14multilateral, involving the Europeans, going other ways, had been tried.
4:19The Obama administration tried to buy the threat with their deal.
4:22And we've basically gone through so many rounds of this, but there is this sort
4:28of cancer that is right in the middle of the world that sits in the
4:31center of a lot of global energy flows.
4:35I think he saw kind of the crossroads of some geopolitics and economic security and
4:43other matters that just needed attention.
4:45And so I think at that level, what we've done to degrade the capabilities of
4:51the theocratic regime is already a win.
4:54And they could come back, but it's not going to be anything like what they
4:58were at or near to accomplishing anytime in the near future.
5:04So we're dealing with sort of the old pottery barn situation of you break something.
5:09Do you own it or do you have to put it back together?
5:11My answer to that is no.
5:13We are under no obligation to put everything back together, but we probably are going
5:17to need to be able to marshal what I would call a maintenance crew.
5:21And I hope the United States isn't the front and center of that.
5:24I hope the United States isn't the front and center of that, but I hope
5:24the United States isn't the front and center of that, but I hope the United
5:24States is the front and center of the United States is the front and center
5:24of the United States is the front and center of the United States is the
5:24front and center of the United States is the front and center of the United
5:24States is the front and center of the United States is the front and center
5:24of the United States is the front and center of the United States is the
5:24front and center of the United States is the front and center of the United
5:24States is the front and center of the United States is the front and center
5:24of the United States is the front and center of the United States is the
5:24front and center of the United States is the front and center of the United
5:24States is the front and center of the United States is the front and center
5:24of the United States is the front and center of the United States is the
5:24front and center of the United States is the front and center of the United
5:24States is the front and center of and its crew.
5:25Hopefully it'll be people closer to having skin in the game in the region that
5:29will make sure that whatever Iran is able to do with these remnants is no
5:33longer able to hold hostage global markets, nuclear weapons, and basically to try to undermine
5:40the fundamental interest of the United States.
5:42So those fronts, I think we've done very, very well.
5:45The media war, the information war, I have to say, I mean, really right now
5:49we're in the fog and it's been harder than I think it should have been.
5:54Now, why is that? So is that just a function of Trump being Trump to
6:02get negotiating leverage by talking about things publicly?
6:05And then the media processes that meaning every Trump truth, you know, or tweet, if
6:10you will, as, as a policy, as like a major policy shift onto itself.
6:18Why is this? Because, because I will say there are people and you and I
6:21know who they are. There are the, there are the people who are, who are
6:25rooting for Trump and therefore I would argue America and civilization, but rooting for Trump
6:29on this, but do feel like things have shifted about what we're trying to do
6:35and how fast it's going or how well it's going.
6:37And is that media narrative or is that a reflection of what's actually happening?
6:43How do you see, you know, people say things like just to give some specific
6:46here, some meat on the bone.
6:47Okay. So it's not regime change, but it was kind of regime change at the
6:51start, if that happened to happen, but it was really about the nuclear program.
6:55But even if we don't get all of the nuclear program, at least we've gotten
6:58pretty much their main military assets that allow projection beyond their own borders, not their
7:04sort of standing art. Like, how do you make it make sense, Steve?
7:08Explain. I'll do the best I can.
7:11But, you know, basically one of the great sins of the Iraq war, and there
7:16were several mistakes that I think were not necessary, that was to go to war
7:22with only one specific cause.
7:25And it was distilled down to, well, they have WMT capabilities and they're so close
7:30and we have to go to the United Nations Security Council and get this blessed.
7:34And between Tony Blair and Colin Powell at the State Department and a lot of
7:38others, it all rested on that thin reed.
7:41And when there wasn't a situation where you could give incontrovertible proof, here it is,
7:48here's why we got it, we win and be able to walk home.
7:52It just mushroomed into a whole bunch of other things.
7:55And we have mission creep, nation building and all that other stuff.
7:58So President Trump has done the right thing in terms of setting some of the
8:02early sort of targets for why we are doing this.
8:06And he focused on the WMD programs, which we could verify locations of, and we
8:10could degrade. But there was, I think, the way he negotiates and the combination of
8:17half the world or maybe more of the world just wants him to fail and
8:23is really inherently anti -American.
8:25And you throw Israel into the mix and they just get the heebie -jeebies.
8:29And so there was just this, the way he tries to shape the information environment
8:34lent itself to the worriers on one side and the people who just inherently believe
8:41he was always going to fail.
8:43And this is just awful and they're doomers.
8:46And so I think that's part of it.
8:48And I think part of it, as you know, Buck, these things are multilayered and
8:52hard. I mean, trying to knock down a government that has been in place for
8:57this long, even if you're just trying to knock them down a few notches, that's
9:01risky and complicated. And you throw in China having a dependency on their energy, the
9:07Europeans deciding to take a breather.
9:09It's just a whole bunch of things that just went a little bit wild.
9:13I think predictably so, but people don't have patience.
9:18Well, that's for sure. We live in an impatient world.
9:21We'll come back into more.
9:23I want to ask you coming up here.
9:24OK, so what what next?
9:26And then we'll also have some fun with a Steve.
9:28I want you to fix Venezuela and Cuba, too, but we'll get there.
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10:32OK, so we're in a kind of ceasefire.
10:35Not really, but we're not blowing them up.
10:38There's some ships have been shot at.
10:40We seized an Iranian ship, but we're not in all out war.
10:44You know, we're in this kind of weird space.
10:46What should happen now? And we got negotiators going to Islamabad.
10:50So what what what do you think should happen?
10:52What should happen? What do you think will happen?
10:54Well, I think it's unclear whether the talks are going to be reconvened.
10:59We're sort of in that netherworld right now.
11:02The Iranian regime turns out when you take out a couple of rungs of leadership
11:06across institutions in a country that you end up with weird divisions that don't coordinate
11:12and communicate effectively. And so I think we're dealing with some of that.
11:15Some of those remnants lash out and shoot.
11:18Some of those remnants are trying to get a deal because they'd rather not die.
11:21And so I think we're dealing with a little bit of that fog.
11:26But I think the administration is prepared to negotiate if there is real deal to
11:32be talked about. And it definitely looks better to be trying to deal and negotiate.
11:37But we have more options.
11:39We're going to have to start using some of those military options soon to knock
11:43down a little bit more of what these remnants are that are trying to fire
11:47on us or anybody else.
11:49I think the Strait of Hormuz has to be open.
11:51It was one thing to declare it open.
11:53Seemed to last for like 24 hours.
11:55The world's insurer decided that, nope, it's not open.
11:59And that's Lloyd's of London.
12:01Last I checked, London is in America.
12:03I'd like that to be addressed, please.
12:05Let's get some attention to that matter.
12:07And so I think that the president has gone gradually on this, probably as a
12:14risk management strategy. And the idea is if you can get some version of Venezuela
12:19where we have different leaders that are behaving differently, but it isn't a complete change,
12:26that that might be more manageable.
12:28And I think we're just inching our way through that kind of a process at
12:32the moment. So I expect in the next two days or so we're going to
12:38have a make or break on this next round of talks and probably some more
12:42ordinances going to be flying, but ships are going to have to start moving soon.
12:46We have the capability to do that.
12:48We have to make it so.
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13:44We'll do Venezuela -Cuba together.
13:45How about that? I'll package it together for you.
13:47Not that they're not incredibly distinct cultures and countries and blah, blah, blah.
13:51Okay, fine. But, you know, they are both Latin America.
13:53They speak Spanish. And they've been ruined by communism.
13:57They have that going for them, which is not good.
14:00Both ruined by communism. So they have that in common.
14:03Start with Venezuela. How do you think it's looking and what comes next?
14:07And where do we put that in all of this?
14:09Well, so far, the gradualism seems to be working, at least if you wanted to
14:13make sure that the behavior of the regime toward the United States has been a
14:17bit different. Disposition of energy seems to have been an enduring change.
14:23And there were links. I mean, basically, Cuba, Venezuela, and a few others were a
14:28nexus where this kind of communist revolution, socialist craziness was being spread.
14:34And it was toxic through our region.
14:36It resulted in a lot of things that fed the drug wars, the immigration floods,
14:42and a whole bunch of other problems.
14:44And so I think we definitely have put a shock in the system.
14:48And we're even seeing some of the effects of that as far away as Peru,
14:51where a Chinese -owned port maybe get unowned by the Chinese in the not -too
14:56-distant future. And our sort of backyard will stop being a devil's playground.
15:01I think there's pressure for the regime in Cuba to have to break, bend reform
15:07in a profound way. And seeing what the president's been willing to do with Venezuela,
15:12but even more so with Iran, has to give them some serious pause.
15:17There's a big, big deal to be had if they choose the right way.
15:21There's a lot of money, not very far away in Florida and elsewhere, that really
15:25will do big, beautiful things on that island if there's a change in that government
15:30in a real and verifiable way.
15:32That is, I think, a bigger prospect than, frankly, Venezuela or Iran could really see
15:37in the near future. And so hopefully that means, and I'd say in the months
15:42ahead, some real movement is breaking there.
15:45But what do we do to get that to happen?
15:49This is the thing. We want it to happen.
15:50It'd be great. I'm in South Florida.
15:52There'd be parties everywhere. People would be super happy if Cuba was free of the
15:57tyrant's boot of communist bureaucratic tyranny.
16:03And, you know, this just feels, though, like, OK, what has to happen?
16:09What do we have to do?
16:10There are already, as I understand it, rolling blackouts.
16:14You know, the economy is a mess.
16:15But the problem is the economy has been a mess for 50, 50 something years.
16:18Right. So what. what is the what are the options to get an actual change
16:25going there or is it really just we got to just wait and see and
16:28it'll implode on its own at some point yeah I think that a decision is
16:32going to have to be made does the president try a Kim Jong -un kind
16:36of sit down and paint out this is what the bright and shiny future really
16:41is and try to make sure that that gets to a broader audience that's outside
16:44of regime control so that there are more people that say wait a minute that's
16:49a heck of a lot better than what we've had and if that's real we
16:53should try that is it going to be something that's more like a Venezuela where
16:56the top dog's got to go but the next in line or third down the
17:00line is someone we choose that we're going to work with imperfect partial transition or
17:05is it going to be something where we have to put maximum pressure and basically
17:09cut off enough of the economy that squeezes it like what we're doing with the
17:13blockade of Iran where 90 percent of their economic growth is tied to in and
17:19out purchases of energy related goods and then squeeze them until they cry uncle it's
17:26going to have to be one of those things I have not heard from anyone
17:29in the administration whether they're looking at one of those versus another I think that
17:33they probably need to have a very high level envoy go and make a down
17:39payment on what this is what the brighter path would look like and see if
17:43they've got a sense of who could be prepared to run with that in today's
17:46Cuba yeah why the people that run Cuba are at this point I mean they've
17:52always been uh you know corrupt and uh and tyrannical dirtbags but can't we buy
17:59them off in a sense right I know that that's not what people want oh
18:03we want Jeffersonian democracy and we want justice and all this okay yeah I want
18:07that but to get there couldn't we say to these guys hey you can you
18:11can preside over a transition to a rule of law you know democratic system and
18:19become heroes to your country we'll help you do it and we'll make you really
18:22rich in the process and we'll forget we'll give you amnesty for the bad stuff
18:26that's happened at this point if you if you really help us create a free
18:29a free Cuba to me you know if you're you're some dirtbag on this island
18:34that doesn't even have uh power anymore and doesn't have Venezuela sending it all the
18:37all the cheap and subsidized oil that it was you don't say well can't we
18:42make them an offer they can't refuse that that's with Cuba it feels like that's
18:45very possible Iran's a different deal though you know they would it will will they
18:49suicide bomber themselves in Iran maybe but they won't do that in Cuba I think
18:53so what happens no I I think that that is roughly the the contours of
18:57where we need to go uh and it's it's basically we're we're here uh to
19:02make this kind of a deal and uh you work with us that you we
19:06are going to make you rich you won't get a Maduro treatment but there has
19:10to be the if you don't work with us you're going to get the Maduro
19:14treatment or worse uh and uh so you can get wealthy and be a historic
19:19transition and we'll basically leave you alone to be fat rich and happy here on
19:24this island uh or we you know we're not going to leave this for the
19:29next generation that's that's basically the theme of the Trump second term he's picking up
19:33things that people said could never be solved and have languished for multiple multiple decades
19:39and he's adamant about not leaving office and leaving these to the next generation that's
19:43why I think something has to be coming in the months ahead to get underway
19:47if he's serious about the timetable between now and when he would leave office so
19:52I and bearing in mind that you know you're a guy who understands the the
19:56situation with China and Taiwan super well and the audience knows I went with you
19:59to Taiwan and you were the Sherpa there and making sure that we got all
20:02the meetings and and learn and I got to learn so much you already knew
20:05this stuff um but you understand the Chinese communist it's not it's not really communist
20:11right I mean the guys who run China there's like a thousand of them and
20:15they they're almost like mercantilist nationalists that have this veneer of there there are no
20:22meaningful way are they communist other than it's a mafia state like they do what
20:25they want they get to be super rich so my point is that there's not
20:28some deep ideological Leninist Marxist you know this is really about the workers paradise right
20:35I mean the people there don't really believe that and you know if put any
20:39twist or turn on that you want Steve and I'm just throwing that out there
20:42because how do we think about the the people in charge of the Cuban communist
20:46party are they true believers are they still thinking the Leninist paradise the workers paradise
20:51is going to happen or they just a bunch of thugs that got to go
20:54with what they got you know and I feel like that tells us a lot
20:57about what's possible there sorry I threw two big different things at you there but
21:00you know you'll make sense of it well but ultimately it really does come back
21:04to the mafia as the most helpful and accurate model for trying to understand what
21:09we're really dealing with and how these countries really operate under their current governments they
21:14have the veneer of some kind of utopian ideology but everyone who lives in those
21:19countries knows that that has nothing to do with the realities right of their families
21:25their loved ones their future and so it's all about power and control and you
21:31have to work your way everyone in the system basically is compromised and corrupted that
21:37way if everyone is corrupted they have to be obedient because on any given day
21:41you could be brought up on charges uh or kicked out or given the long
21:46dirt nap uh And so that's basically the tyranny of fear and corruption combined with
21:53some money to slosh around.
21:55And America, for many decades, has given a lot of money for these regimes to
21:59slosh around. I mean, in China, it was a lot of investment and concessional lending,
22:05hopes and dreams with Iran.
22:06There were literal pallets full of cash that went in and unfrozen sanctions related assets
22:13that went back in. And and so really, it's it's basically this mafia model and
22:19how do mafias come down?
22:20It's basically if there's any moment where the numbers just below the boss say there's
22:27more of us than there are of him and we want a different direction and
22:30we've got a better option here.
22:33Then that's how the deal gets made.
22:34One guy or two guys get taken out and the regime comes.
22:38In the Cuban context, then this is what I'm it's the guys who are the
22:42rung below the guys were in the very top.
22:44You're like, hey, we want to be rich and not have these problems and do
22:48our own thing here. And America's putting some stuff on the table that we're willing
22:52to go with. So you don't think it's, you know, that they're going to be
22:56sitting there like, no, we are we are true committed Leninists.
22:59And like, we'd rather be in the dark for the next 50 years, because that's
23:03that's what Karl Marx would have wanted for us or whatever.
23:06I'd try to find two guys in the next rung down that are sort of
23:09competitive with each other, but can find a way for that to be constructive competition.
23:13I'd invest in both. And I put invest in air quotes sort of along the
23:17lines you were talking about before.
23:19And and let's let's see if wealth and opportunity is enough to say, you know,
23:24let's give peace a chance.
23:25There we go. Steve Yates, guys, going to be launching an awesome podcast, your one
23:29stop shop for national security conversations and analysis.
23:34So he will be doing that with Nation States with Yates soon.
23:38And we're very honored. And, Stephen, thank you so much for that.
23:41We're going to launch that on on Klan Buck Network.
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24:39Talk soon. Thanks. This is Martha Stewart from the Martha Stewart.
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25:56counter underneath. Effortless. You can use it for cooking and baking prep, and even crafting,
26:02especially when you need extra working space.
26:05Because when the mess is already handled, you can focus on what matters.
26:10The food, the people, and the moment.
26:13It may look effortless, but now you know.
26:15It's Reynolds Kitchen's countertop prep paper.
26:19Take a tip from me.
26:20Wet it. Set it. Prep it.
26:22Done. Make it easy. Make it with Reynolds Kitchen's countertop prep paper.
26:28Available now in the Reynolds Wrap Aisle in Walmart and Target.
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