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1:51Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Gruduski.

1:54Thank you guys for being here.

1:55I want to go over some polls before going to the main topic.

1:57And the poll is in Ohio.

1:58There's a new YouGov poll that in Ohio, finding is the Trump plus 11 state,

2:04a state that Trump won by 11 points.

2:06And the generic ballot is Trump plus 5, which would suggest the entire national ballot

2:10has a 6 -point swing in Democrats' favor.

2:13Remember, Republicans won the last election by 2 points nationally.

2:17This would mean the Democrats will likely win by 4 points.

2:20That's pretty good actually for Republicans.

2:22It's not nearly as aggressive as a lot of people thought it would be.

2:25Now, if that's true, though, Republicans should be able to pick up at least one

2:30U .S. House seat in Ohio.

2:32That's the 9th Congressional District in Northwest Ohio.

2:36Democrat Marcy Kaptor has represented that district since 1983, before I was born.

2:42Actually, a couple of years before I was born.

2:44The seat has recently been redistricted as a deal with Democrats.

2:47Democrats made a deal with Republicans that basically they would get to there's three big

2:53swing districts in Ohio. They would make two of the swing districts more Democrat.

2:57Republicans would make one swing district more Republican.

2:59And that's Marcy Kaptor's seat.

3:01Her district went from being a Trump plus 7 district to a Trump plus 11

3:05district. It is a very hard win for Democrats if they want to win that

3:09seat. On the senator's side, incumbent John Husted is beating former incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown.

3:18So Sherrod Brown is a defeated—he's not an incumbent.

3:20He's the former senator. He was defeated two years ago.

3:24Incumbent Senator John Husted is beating him by three points.

3:28That's not a lot, but it is showing that there is some momentum on the

3:32Republican side because it was really neck and neck.

3:35There was a fantastic ad from this pack called the Ohio Flyers Pack.

3:41They're running this ad against Sherrod Brown.

3:43It was the best ad so far I've seen in this election cycle.

3:46It is an image of two parents talking about how a guest won't leave a

3:52party early. And there's a clown sleeping.

3:54They go, wow, he won't leave.

3:55And they go, who, the clown?

3:56I said, no, Sherrod Brown.

3:58And Sherrod Brown, they're eating ice cream.

3:59And AI, obviously, Sherrod Brown.

4:01It was really, really great, really smart campaigning on the part of that pack.

4:07And Sherrod Brown, I told Democrats, Sherrod should run for governor.

4:11He'd have it in the bag if they wanted to win.

4:13But they really were convinced that he could win the Senate seat in Ohio.

4:17And it's looking like the tide's already turning against him.

4:20But it'll be a tight race, though.

4:21They're going to spend a lot of money, both Republicans and Democrats.

4:24On the governor's side of the things, things are a little bit more dicey.

4:28Vivek Ramaswamy, who is winning the primary with 76 % of the vote, is in

4:33a statistical tie with Democrat Amy Acton, 48 to 47%.

4:37This is one of many polls that have found this number.

4:41There's a few outliers that show Ramaswamy winning by a decent margin.

4:45But most polls have said that this is a 50 -50 flip of the coin.

4:51The poll finds that Vivek is the most unpopular state politician in Ohio.

4:5740 % of voters say that he has an unfavorable opinion of him.

5:0132 % say they're favorable.

5:03Not impossible to overcome. If unfavorables for Vivek go into the 50s, though, while favorables

5:09stay in the 30s, that will be a much tougher race for him.

5:13So where is Eustead doing better than Vivek among voters?

5:17Because he's winning by three versus by one.

5:20Vivek is doing much work than...

5:22... ... ... that much worse than you said among Latinos, which is a small

5:25population in Ohio, it's not that significant, but he's doing worse among Latinos, among women,

5:30and ironically, both among seniors and millennials.

5:34The only group of Beck is doing remarkably better in than Houston is very young

5:39voters, Gen Z voters between 18 to 29.

5:42That should be enough for Beck to squeak by, but it's going to be a

5:45closer race than Republicans really hope.

5:47I want to remind people in the last two governor's election, it was the first

5:51time that a Republican was running.

5:54It was a very close election.

5:56Tim DeWine did not win by giant margins.

5:59I think it was three points.

6:00And the governor who was before him who ran for president, he won by, I

6:05think, two points. So it's been historically tight races when it's non -incumbent in Ohio.

6:10And it's looking like it will be another tight race in Ohio for the back.

6:14Okay, my main topic, let's go to the main topic.

6:18Is John Fetterman, is there a place for John Fetterman in the Democratic Party today?

6:24Fetterman, the Democratic senator from Pennsylvania campaign as a progressive firebrand, who even are in

6:30the support of Bernie Sanders.

6:31However, in the Senate, he's taken on a much more milder and nuanced tone.

6:36I say tone, because it's not always reflective in his voting record, how he sounds

6:42and what he does are two kind of very different things.

6:45Fetterman votes with Trump more than any other Democrat.

6:49By that, I mean, he votes 28 % with Trump.

6:52He is not John Manchin or Kyrsten Sinema.

6:55He is not a 50 -50 senator, considering he's in a 50 -50 state.

6:59The only other Democrat to vote with Trump more than 25 % of the time

7:04is Gene Shaheen from New Hampshire.

7:06So he's in kind of mixed company with swing state senators.

7:10Only actually four other senators vote with Trump at least even 20 % of the

7:14time, which I thought was fascinating.

7:16So there's six total Democrats who vote with Trump 20 % of the time or

7:20greater, between 20 and 30%.

7:21The other four are Angus King from Maine, Maggie Hassan from New Hampshire, Jackie Rosen

7:26from Nevada, and Ruben Gallego from Arizona.

7:29That's not a lot. He is in small company with either swing state people, independents,

7:34or states that Trump won.

7:37So while his rhetoric suggests that he's a moderate, he is no less moderate than,

7:41you know, Maggie Hassan, no less moderate than Angus King, or no less moderate really

7:46than Ruben Gallego. It's literally at the, it's just, it's just here or there on

7:51certain issues. That's really it.

7:53And remember, he's in a state that Trump won by 1 .7%.

7:57Also a state where Republicans have won a lot of statewide elections in the last

8:02couple of years. Aside from Fetterman, the only other Democrat to hold statewide elected office

8:08in Pennsylvania is Governor Josh Shapiro.

8:11Yet despite being a Democrat with solid, you know, being solid on Democratic issues that

8:16they care about, the Democrats have always cared about, they really seem to hate the

8:20guy. A Quinnipiac poll from February 25th found that Fetterman had a 46 % approval

8:25rating in the state to 40 % disapproval.

8:28But unlike every other senator that I've ever looked at, I've never seen numbers like

8:33this. It's not because of his party, it's because of the opposition party.

8:38Fetterman has a 73 % approval rating among Republicans, 48 % among independents, which makes

8:44him positive in independents because there's a lot of undecideds among independents.

8:48And I actually did double check this number because I did not think I read

8:52this correctly. Among Democrats, Fetterman has a 22 % favorable rating.

8:59He is negative 40 in his own home state among his own party.

9:05Chlamydia does not have as bad a rap in Pennsylvania among Democrats as John Fetterman

9:11does. It is wild. And he votes with them 72 % of the time.

9:16What do they want from the guy?

9:18In 2023, Fetterman had a 68 % favorable rating.

9:23In just three years, he has fallen 108 points in his own party in his

9:29own state. And why, mind you, my ad, are Republicans so in love with him?

9:35What is happening? There is a cognitive dissonance of what people say and how people

9:40look and what they actually vote on?

9:43And it's not just a polling error on behalf of Quinnipiac because I thought, oh,

9:46maybe Quinnipiac just had a really bad sample.

9:49I looked at Quinnipiac's polls from the year before and it was the same double

9:53digit support among Republicans, double digit unfavorables among Democrats.

9:56A morning consult poll from January had him up 32 points with Republicans and down

10:0224 with Democrats. So this is not the kind of like optical illusion of like,

10:07oh, one bad poll says a wild number.

10:09No, we have a substantial body of evidence suggesting that this trend is real and

10:13growing. I don't think it's necessarily how often Fetterman breaks with Trump.

10:18It's also what he breaks with Trump on.

10:21Fetterman was the only Democrat to support a strike in Iran.

10:24And most importantly, he has been an outspoken supporter of Israel, one of the few

10:28in Washington. One time I remember being in D .C.

10:31This is when I was traveling to D .C.

10:33for work and I was in an Uber.

10:36And I looked over to my right near Capitol Hill.

10:39And there was just John Fetterman with like a gaggle of like Jewish teenagers who

10:43were fawning over him. And like they were like getting an autograph or a selfie

10:46or whatever. Like the man is very popular among Jewish voters.

10:49in Jewish constituencies. And he really speaks to them.

10:52And it was one, actually, probably one of the funniest things I've ever seen in

10:54Washington, D .C., because he's also so tall compared to everybody else.

10:57He also voted against shutting down the government over DHS.

11:00He voted to advance Mullen in the Homeland Security Committee.

11:05He voted for Pam Bondi.

11:06He's done this a number of occasions.

11:08It's one or two things.

11:10So I think the issue that really sticks in the side of Democrats is that

11:16these high -profile votes, these cases like Israel, where the Democratic Party is moving so

11:24in opposition, the issue of Israel is so incredibly toxic to Democrats.

11:30And I don't think we haven't had an election yet, where people, a national election,

11:35where the issue of Israel is being voted on by Democrats.

11:37But according to Pew Research, 80 % of Democrats, including 84 % of young Democrats,

11:43have an unfavorable opinion of Israel.

11:46This is a true number.

11:48Young Democrats have a more negative opinion of Israel than either Iran or China.

11:55It is considered an enemy, not an ally, not a neutral country.

11:59They believe Israel is an enemy.

12:01And there's a legitimate problem when it comes to Democrats, because they are completely guided

12:08by the idea that there are oppressors and there are people being oppressed.

12:11Israel is a settler nation in their eyes.

12:14It is a white nation.

12:15It has whiteness. It is the guilt of whiteness.

12:17And there is nothing. There is nothing to guide them.

12:22Logic, reason, religion, nothing that guides them the other direction.

12:27And I have told this to my liberal Jewish friends time and time and time

12:30again. You made all the wrong allies.

12:35You made all the wrong friends.

12:37This is not a party that wants you part of it.

12:40We are going to see that when Josh Shapiro runs for president.

12:44It is like the old, you know, anti -Irish signs.

12:48Irish need not to apply.

12:50Jews need not to apply as a Democratic nominee for president.

12:53And I don't know who said this.

12:54It wasn't me who said this, but it was like Bill Maher.

12:56Somebody said anti -Semitism is a cold in the Republican Party.

13:00It is the flu in the Democratic Party.

13:02Back to Fetterman, though. There is this fever dream on the right that Republicans believe

13:08Fetterman will just abandon the Democratic Party when he's belonged to his entire life and

13:12become a Republican. They really believe this.

13:14And I want to say, guys, this is never going to happen.

13:17This is like Fetch. It's never going to happen.

13:20Stop trying to make it happen.

13:21On abortion, on labor, on judges, on so many other issues.

13:26Fetterman is just a Democrat.

13:28He believes that government instead of the markets will create ideal situations for people.

13:33He fundamentally believes in all the things a classic Democrat believes in.

13:39He just doesn't hate Jews.

13:41And maybe that doesn't make him a Democrat in America in 2026, but that makes

13:45him a Democrat in a traditional sense and how he sees the Democratic Party.

13:49And I'm not the only one who shares that opinion.

13:53He's just not a Republican and never will be.

13:55And I think that Republicans need, instead of having this fantasy that he is going

14:01to become a Republican, need to start working on the idea of running a candidate

14:04against him, a really good candidate, and making sure Pennsylvania becomes a red state.

14:10That's what they should be doing instead of the hopes and dreams of recruiting John

14:13Fetterman. With me today on this episode is award -winning journalist, Selena Zito.

14:18She's from Western Pennsylvania. She understands Pennsylvania probably better than anybody else does.

14:22That's coming up next. Who doesn't love warm, carby comfort?

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14:50Some products contain allulose. See nutrition info on Hero .co for sodium and sugar content.

14:54Listen, we've seen what's out there for patio furniture, and what you've been paying is

14:58outrageous. But that was last season you, before you ditched the specialty stores and started

15:03saving more at HomeSense. Now you're listening to this while under a designer umbrella on

15:09a luxurious teak lounge chair.

15:10Because it's easy to relax when you refuse to settle on style, on price, on

15:16outdoor pieces that will actually outlast the season.

15:19HomeSense, the home of no compromise.

15:21Part of the HomeGoods family.

15:24Warning, this product contains nicotine.

15:26Nicotine is an addictive chemical.

15:27Underage sale prohibited. There's a sweet new addition to the lineup of Zone nicotine pouches.

15:32Introducing cranberry, packed with refreshing flavors, and the perfect balance of sweetness and tartness.

15:37Now available in 6mg nicotine strength.

15:40Exclusively at Nicokick .com. And delivered right to your door.

15:43Take advantage of 50 % off with promo code CRAN50KC.

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16:25Selena Zito is the senior reporter at the Washington Examiner and author of the book,

16:29Butler, the Untold Story of the Near Assassination of Donald Trump.

16:33Selena, thanks for coming on this podcast.

16:34Thanks for having me. I'm so excited.

16:38Yeah, that's the first time anyone's ever said it to me.

16:40Selena, you wrote in an op -ed in the Washington Post, and I thought it

16:44was really important, really insightful.

16:46The name of the article is called I'm a Democrat.

16:48Will Pennsylvania turn on John Fetterman?

16:51There's so much here that it's good, but I want to read this one quote

16:54from the article and then talk about it.

16:56You said, but Fetterman's pro -Israel stance increasingly made him, quote, pro -Trump in the

17:01eyes of many progressives. When he and his wife Gisele met with Trump in Florida

17:05to get acquainted, what was once a common courtesy between congressional members of opposite parties

17:10and the president, it was considered an act of betrayal.

17:12The party has abandoned core values in the face of Trump derangement syndrome, said Fetterman.

17:18Well, first, my first question to you is, is the dislike, one, is the hatred

17:24for Fetterman in Pennsylvania among Democrats real, and is it simply Trump derangement syndrome?

17:31There's a lot here. I think it's also people, it's an Israel problem, which really,

17:41out of everything, really disturbs him a lot.

17:46A lot of this, first of all, comes from the outside, right?

17:52People in blue states who believe you should behave that way, and Pennsylvania is a

17:58really unique state. We've supported Obama twice.

18:03We've supported Trump twice. We've elected Shapiro and Fetterman, but also Dave McCormick, right?

18:10So we're all over the place.

18:12Our majority in the U .S.

18:15House are Republicans. A majority in the State House are Republicans.

18:19So it's a state you have to be very thoughtful in representing.

18:27You can't be far right.

18:29You can't be far left.

18:30You have to be cognizant of the people in the state.

18:35And I think that that's what Fetterman believes that he is doing.

18:39And so a lot of the noises, first of all, start from the outside.

18:43The National Party and the progressive movement believe that he has failed them because, I

18:52would start with Israel, Israel, because it started with how he demonstrated his support for

18:59Israel after October 7, 2023.

19:02That's sort of when you saw the nipping at his heels.

19:06At that point, going into October of 2023, he enjoyed 73 % approval rating from

19:15Pennsylvania Democrats. And then I think what happened in 2024, 2024, you go into 2024,

19:24and you see him sort of warning his party that Trump's going to win, like

19:33he understood it. It's not because he supported him.

19:37He gave off warning signals like Trump's going to win.

19:41And that started to make Democrats mad.

19:45He was right, right? And then you get - A lot of profits do get

19:51executed. I would just warn people about that.

19:54Yeah, it happens. If you read the Bible, yeah.

19:56Oh, yeah. I remember in 2016, July of 2016, I wrote, after driving across the

20:03country, and going into every swing state, I said, the election is over.

20:08Y 'all just don't know it yet.

20:10Yeah. You would have thought I would have announced some sort of massacre, right?

20:17And people treated me online.

20:19I'm like, it's not because I do or do not like President Trump, then candidate

20:23Trump. It's just so obvious.

20:26Right. It's just so obvious if you listen to people.

20:30Well, okay. Can I ask you another Pennsylvania -based question?

20:33Because you are the sage of especially Western Pennsylvania.

20:37How much of this battle against Fetterman is geographically biased?

20:44Fetterman comes from Western PA.

20:46That is a different style of Democrat than Eastern PA.

20:50Eastern PA, a lot of people who move there from New Jersey, from New York,

20:54from Delaware, from Maryland, different style of politics, a lot more wealth, a lot more

21:00white -collar workers. Fetterman is very much in the old -school labor Democrat movement.

21:06Is that part of why they don't understand him?

21:10Is that part, is it regional?

21:12Not really. Okay. All 30 counties in 2022.

21:17I mean, all 67 counties.

21:1930 % of the, he won by, he defeated Conor Lamb, who, by the way,

21:26fits right into what you just described, right?

21:29Button -down suit, you know, very, you know, sort of deliberate in the way that

21:36he talks. Um, and, and he fit right in that lane.

21:40And they, man, none of them wanted anything to do with him.

21:44No, it's not. so, so, OK, where does Shapiro stand with Fetterman?

21:48So those two didn't get along very well when they were in the state government.

21:54Senator Fetterman was the lieutenant governor.

21:58Yeah. And by the way, he created history when he won that race.

22:02He unseated a sitting lieutenant governor, Democrat.

22:06And Shapiro was the state attorney general.

22:10And they got into it over the parole board.

22:16And they really like went at each other.

22:19But, you know, they are cordial to each other, to their great credit.

22:23They are both cordial with each other when they are on the stage.

22:27They both have supported each other in campaigns.

22:31And I think what has escalated this idea that Fetterman would lose, right, is you

22:41see Brendan Boyle in Philadelphia.

22:45He's a congressman of Philadelphia.

22:46Yeah. Yeah. And you see Conor Lamb.

22:50And you see, to a lesser extent, Chris Deluzio.

22:56Deluzio doesn't really go after Fetterman.

22:59They only disagree on one issue, and that's the war in Iran.

23:03And, but, you know, Boyle and Lamb, like, do not mince words.

23:09They're pretty nasty in their attacks, and then they're very personal.

23:13So that's what made people then start to believe that he was either going to

23:19switch parties. He's not. As he said to me, I would be the worst Republican.

23:27That was one of my questions for you, because you make it emphatic in the

23:31piece. He is saying, I'm not going to be a Republican.

23:34It is, it's an online thing.

23:36But if you look at how he votes, he is so clearly not a Republican.

23:40I know. It's wild. I want to shout at everyone who says that.

23:47Two things right now online that make me crazy is that he's going to switch

23:52parties. He knows he's not.

23:53We saw what happened to Arlen Specter, and it wasn't pretty, right?

23:57And that was not that long ago.

23:59And that Trump was not shot in Butler, which makes me just want to lunge

24:04through the computer. And, well, I won't say what I want to do, because I'm

24:12a grandma. You know what?

24:16This is a side part completely.

24:17But I, so a couple episodes ago, someone asked me for my grandma's meatball recipe,

24:23and I gave it. And I get positive responses.

24:26I think if I have an Italian guest for now, I'm going to say, what

24:28is your sauce or meatball recipe?

24:29I'm going to make that like a feature of the show.

24:31I know you're an Italian grandma.

24:32You post about it a lot.

24:33So that's why I thought about it.

24:35Okay. But here's my other question, going back to Pennsylvania, going back to the Democratic

24:38Party. In the last couple of years, Democrats in Pennsylvania, they gained the state house.

24:42They still don't have the state Senate.

24:43But they have lost a number of seats.

24:46Every statewide elected, except for Fetterman and Shapiro, and obviously Shapiro's lieutenant governor, is a

24:51Republican. The state Senate's Republican.

24:53They lost two important critical swing House seats in Pennsylvania.

24:57They lost a U .S.

24:59Senate seat in Pennsylvania that no one thought they were going to lose.

25:02And the voter advantage and registration advantage has diminished substantially over the last 10 years.

25:09Do Pennsylvania Democrats feel that they are in a different place than maybe they should

25:15be thinking of themselves in?

25:16Like this is actually a fight?

25:18Or do they view Pennsylvania as a blue state that had a hiccup?

25:24Well, I don't know. Put it this way.

25:28Because in November, in the off, off, off year election, they picked up a bunch

25:34of down -balance seats. It's not anything big, right?

25:38Mayors and state— Mayors and row offices.

25:42Yeah. Made a big deal about it.

25:43But I always caution people, look, in 2015, the Republicans lost every seat that year,

25:51including the state Supreme Court.

25:52And then they went back and wiped the slate clean in 2016.

25:56Right. Well, I don't put a lot of credence in that.

25:59I actually think Republicans made a poor choice in Pennsylvania in November by going all

26:04in on that state Supreme Court race instead of focusing locally, which they are so

26:10much better at doing. And they kind of forgot about the local races and put

26:15all their energy in that state Supreme Court race.

26:17And you're never going to win that because it's not a race about contrast because

26:23you're running a race to get rid of someone, but you're not giving them an

26:28opportunity to see someone else.

26:30So voters are like, yeah, I can't.

26:34I'm not with that. And, okay, back to Federman.

26:38Federman has wild approval rating from Republicans.

26:42Like, I actually double -checked other polls, and they are all consistent.

26:45Federman is very popular with Republicans.

26:48Why? Why? Because he's independent.

26:52People like that. They find that compelling and interesting, and they can see themselves in

27:00that. I mean, most Republicans are not 100 % Republican.

27:04They're like at 75 % to 80%, right?

27:08And so when they see someone who makes a decision that's better for the...

27:12state as opposed to any party, they find that compelling and interesting.

27:18They're interested in someone who, you know, the ethos of a conservative populist is to

27:25be the person who doesn't fall in line, right?

27:29That's what conservative populists are about.

27:32They're very interested in people that are willing to look at both sides of something

27:41and make a decision. They might not, you know, Republicans aren't going to agree with

27:47Fetterman in about 75 % of the time, but if Fetterman runs, and by the

27:54way, I think he does, and if he wins in the primary, I think he

28:01does. Really? I don't think that any of these guys run against him.

28:08Okay. First of all, Brendan Boyle, let's just be honest here.

28:12He sits in the safest House district in the state.

28:17And if the Republicans lose the majority in the House, he will be the chair

28:23of the House Budget Committee.

28:24A very, very powerful position.

28:27Why don't you give that up?

28:30Yeah, that's true. And it takes a long time to actually build seniority in the

28:35Senate. Chris Delusio, though, is going to likely lose his House seat in six years

28:41when Pennsylvania loses the congressional district, though.

28:44Right, right. He has a chance to actually run because he may not have.

28:50That district will be much harder because you have to grow into the Republican areas,

28:54into Mike Kelly's district and all the surrounding districts.

28:57Unless they split Pittsburgh, but I don't think that they will.

29:01So, you know, it's likely that Summer Lee's district grows to the outskirts of Pittsburgh,

29:07and that means that he's in a more Republican.

29:10My congresswoman, OK? And I live next door to a farm, OK?

29:16She represents me about as well as someone from, I don't know where, representing Brooklyn,

29:23right? Oh, yeah. She is very much a hipster, a hipster Democrat.

29:29OK, last two questions. One, Shapiro, he is obviously cruising to re -election right now.

29:35He's got tons. He's got presidential money.

29:38He doesn't have governor of Pennsylvania.

29:40Yeah. I don't even think he's going to spend most of his money.

29:44No. Doesn't need to. I really like Stacey Garrity, who's running against him, but it

29:49would be the shocker of shockers of all time if she pulls it off.

29:54Is he running for president?

29:59He certainly is setting it up to be.

30:01I mean, I would be shocked if he doesn't run.

30:03The only thing that stops him from running is not Republicans.

30:07It's his own party. OK.

30:10Look what they're embracing in Maine.

30:12Look what they're embracing in Michigan.

30:14Look what they're embracing in New York, right?

30:21Look at these far left that have become these darlings, right?

30:27That have become the entities that the news organizations like CNN and MSNBC, right?

30:36They really embrace them and lift them up and give them prominence.

30:40And then what happens is that my profession then sort of forces Democrats to say,

30:49well, they're on the same side as them, right?

30:51They're just just by the nature of the way that my profession works these days.

30:57And so that's someone once said someone once said I think it was Bill Maher.

31:02It might not have been Bill Maher, but it was Democrats have a cold.

31:05Sorry, Republicans have a cold when it comes to anti -Semitism and Democrats have the

31:10flu. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Like a really bad flu, like 1919 flu.

31:20What? Sorry, that was really funny.

31:23What? OK, last question for you.

31:25What is the trend that is going on politically in Pennsylvania that people, the news

31:31media is not paying enough attention to as a woman who's been from the state,

31:35whose family stretches back hundreds of years in the state?

31:37What is the trend people should know about Pennsylvania that's going on that no one's

31:41really picking up on? So no one's really going understands how big AI energy and

31:48sort of the intellectual community that's making robotics, how much that is booming with jobs

31:54out here. It's really done and with steel, like manufacturing is really, really doing well

32:02in Pennsylvania. It's sort of an untold story.

32:05The people also don't understand that while a lot of white collar workers are worried

32:12about AI and their jobs, like plumbers and welders and people that, you know, artisans

32:19that work with their hands that can fix things, they're going to be the one

32:22that's in the cat's bird seat because they're the ones that you need to make

32:27these data power centers, right?

32:30They're the ones that are going to have to maintain them.

32:33They're the ones that are going to make sure that they have the energy that

32:36is needed. And the universities like Carnegie Mellon University, university.

32:40with their robotics and the University of Pittsburgh with their research are going to be

32:47the ones that continue to invent and sort of incubate these small little manufacturing companies.

32:55It's really, I'll have a story about it next week, but it's really gone under

33:00reported and not understood in the larger discussion about AI.

33:06That's a great point. McCormick is going all in on AI.

33:09Yeah, it should. And voters absolutely hate it.

33:13And if there is large job replacement in the next five years, McCormick is going

33:19to have to answer a lot for it.

33:21I'm not saying that he will, not saying that it will.

33:23I'm saying attaching yourself, though, to such a dicey issue doesn't always work out.

33:29Sometimes it does, doesn't always, though.

33:31I think what makes it different is place, right?

33:36And was it 68 % of the people in the state don't have a college

33:42education and work in the trades and they're working in facilitating and building AI.

33:50So that's why I think it's so underreported.

33:53That's true. People think of AI in this intellectual way, right?

33:57In this job replacement way.

33:59But it's almost like a correction of what happened in the 70s, where all of

34:05the working class lost their jobs.

34:08And people with degrees gained all their jobs.

34:12It's almost a correction or reversal of fortune.

34:16And I really don't think it's not understood as much as it should be in

34:22the national discussion about AI.

34:23Yeah. I mean, the thing is, is I talked to a lot of tech founders

34:27and they're, they're going all in on blue collar jobs, too.

34:31They want robots to build houses and to build data centers and to, they do

34:37not, it's not like they're going to let blue collar jobs just be the working

34:40class job. They want a robot to take that job as well.

34:43And data centers obviously being very noisy, electricity costs, all the rest of it.

34:48We know we've heard this story.

34:50AI companies could be building a lot of goodwill if they did something like going

34:55into a rural or ex -urban county in Pennsylvania, building a data center and offering

34:59to pay all the property tax for the entire county for the next five years.

35:02Like it would be a major win, but they don't do that.

35:05I'm getting Indiana County, Pennsylvania.

35:06I've written about this. I'll send you the story.

35:09They paid all the property taxes?

35:11They're, they're working on something like that.

35:13They're also building new housing, building new houses, beautiful houses, affordable houses for the, for

35:21the workers. It's, it's, it's, it's, it's called Homer city.

35:24I'll send you the story.

35:25Yeah. I'd love to hear about it because that is smart, just smart business stuff.

35:29Yeah. Where can you go to read all your work, Selena?

35:31Cause you are so interesting and such a great writer.

35:35I do. I love reading your stuff.

35:36Oh, thank you. Well, they can follow me on X, um, Zito Selena, but I

35:41also have a website. It's just selenazito .com.

35:45I am a daily reporter for the Washington Examiner, but I'm also now a, um,

35:50a monthly columnist for the Washington post.

35:53Look at you. And I'm writing my next book.

35:57You are? Yeah. Okay. Well, look at you, busy woman for a grandma who's got

36:01a lot going on. You are on fire.

36:03So thank you for coming to this podcast.

36:04I really appreciate you. Oh my gosh.

36:06Thanks for having me. I'll send you my meatball recipe.

36:09Absolutely. I will read it for my listeners.

36:10So thank you. All right.

36:11Sounds good. See ya. Now it's time for the ask me anything segment.

36:15If you want a part of the ask me anything segment, you can only Ryan

36:18at numbers game podcast .com.

36:20That's Ryan at numbers game podcast numbers, plural game podcast .com.

36:24Okay. We have a bunch of questions.

36:25First one comes from Robbie.

36:26He says, we had a recent, a primary election in North Carolina in which the

36:29most powerful state legislator member was defeated by a local sheriff in district 26.

36:34I remember this election. It was a big, big blow.

36:38Uh, we're hearing all sorts of doom and gloom about the amount of money that

36:41will be spent not becoming as part of our part of the States based on

36:45a change in leadership. Want to get your opinion also sidebar.

36:48What about Watley versus Cooper?

36:49How is that rate shaking out?

36:50I would not believe that.

36:52Do not worry about the money stuff.

36:54It's so rarely ever shakes out that way.

36:57People always threaten that the money's going to dry up so long as the one,

37:02they're going to need the majority to hold.

37:05Secondly, in the, in the legislature, the majority of the legislature to hold.

37:08Secondly, as long as the candidate is not insane, doesn't go on tirades, doesn't use

37:14the N word, doesn't talk about Jews in a derogatory way, doesn't talk about gays

37:18in a super derogatory way, doesn't, you know, say he wants to murder anybody.

37:23Like as long as he keeps his nose clear on most things, the money will

37:27likely come because they need to, you know, hold the majority.

37:29As far as Cooper versus Watley goes, Watley's raised a good chunk of money.

37:33Cooper's raised an insane amount of money.

37:37It's not looking great for Watley.

37:39It's not over, but I would say North Carolina is their best bet to flip

37:45a state even more than Maine.

37:47I think that there's a lot to invest in in North Carolina that they're going

37:51to invest in. And I would, if I was a betting man, which I am

37:54not, and I do not, I do not advocate for gambling and I'm not gambling

37:58on races too. I put my money on Cooper right now.

38:01Okay. Next question comes from Ryan.

38:04He says, one, I use your meatball and sauce recipe.

38:06It was delicious. Thank you for that.

38:08I was worried the meatballs wouldn't cook raw in the sauce, but they did.

38:10They were not going to cook raw.

38:12I told you it was fine.

38:13It was definitely fine. You could also, if you're nervous about that, you could put

38:18them in the oven for like five, 10 minutes, make the outsides cooked so they

38:23don't fall apart in the sauce.

38:25People don't like that. Sometimes they get a little too much meat in the sauce.

38:28It'll be hard on the outside and then the inside will cook in the sauce.

38:31You could do that as well.

38:32It's not a big deal, but I'm glad you like my grandma's recipe.

38:35Secondly, JD Vance due to Nick Shirley and people like him are shutting down fraud

38:39that is happening, which is great.

38:41People like Nick Sordo, Derek Daughtry and others shill for this admin, which I fully

38:47understand. But in reality, why should I care as an American paying the higher end

38:51of federal taxes? This is never going to give us a refund.

38:55We are never lowering the taxes.

38:57That's cool. My money isn't being spent on fraud, Somalians or hospice, but ultimately it's

39:02going to reroute a different government BS.

39:06Okay. So let's, that was a lot.

39:09Ryan, that was a lot.

39:12I don't want to get into a few with anybody, but some people online, if

39:18you see, okay, perfect example.

39:19If you're on Twitter and you see someone post a fire alarm emoji and then

39:25a tweet, a link to a video, a link to whatever, it is likely that

39:30those people are just being paid to tweet.

39:33Allegedly not saying anybody on that particular list is, I don't know, but I know

39:38they will do, they will say whatever who for to whoever for the highest bidder.

39:45Some people on that list, not Nick Sordo, that's different, but some other people on

39:50the list are just paid to tweet.

39:53And Twitter also, if they make a lot of money, they can make a whole

39:56living on it. That's what a lot of those people you mentioned do.

39:59They actually just make their money from tweeting and tweeting whatever they can to generate

40:02the most clicks. It's not really good for your health.

40:05I don't follow in those people because I think that a lot of that is

40:07nonsense. Why you should care about fraud and why you should care about this though,

40:11not so much of the tax dollars and I pay a lot of money in

40:14taxes. Trust me, when I did my taxes, I'm not joking.

40:19I was so angry. I was so angry.

40:22I almost texted the vice president and said, F you.

40:25I was so mad. I was like, what happened to the tax cuts for like

40:29allegedly wealthy or higher end people?

40:31I didn't receive any. I was furious, furious.

40:36It's not so much the taxes or the situation where your own individual taxes, it's

40:40to build higher social trust.

40:42People do not mind as much that those welfare programs exist if there is no

40:47fraud in those welfare programs.

40:49And you want to arrest people who are defrauding the system because there are a

40:54lot of them. So much money in fraud.

40:58It makes you irritated. It makes me irritated.

41:01And you want those, you want it only going to people who it belongs to.

41:06And we need those documentations for, for, for restricting it, for restraining it and for

41:11changing it. So that's why it's not necessarily for you personally.

41:14It irritates me too, but the fraud, I don't, I don't mind personally paying for

41:20welfare. If it's going to a widowed firefighter, a firefighter's widow who's got three kids,

41:27I don't mind my money going there.

41:29I don't mind my money going to closing potholes or to financing the military or

41:35things that we need. I'm not as Republican who's like, we should have no government.

41:38I very much believe, yeah, there's a place and a role for government.

41:42It shouldn't be to do everything.

41:44And it shouldn't be going to everyone besides apparently me and you and like five

41:50other people. That's what I really get irritated by.

41:53Not so much that there is a welfare state.

41:55It's how big is it?

41:56Where is it going? And who is it going to?

41:59And I would like it to go to people who actually deserve it, not everybody

42:01else. Okay. Last question you have, I have to show my spending to the government.

42:06Why do that? Why do they not have to?

42:08There's actually a lot of things you could look at for government spending.

42:10So that's not exactly right, Ryan.

42:12You can actually get a lot of government spending.

42:15Okay. Last question for the episode.

42:17This is from Dave. I have a couple of questions about immigration.

42:20I want to ask you.

42:21Okay, here we go, Dave.

42:22Dave. With the Iran war going on, there doesn't seem to be any news coverage

42:26about deportations anymore. Are they still going on?

42:29And what is the effect does the new DHS secretary have on mass deportations?

42:32Yes, they are still going on.

42:33The New York Times reported, I think I said in one of the episodes previously

42:37or on my sub stack, it might've been on my sub stack.

42:39I think it's about 1700 a day or 1400 a day.

42:42It's one of those two numbers.

42:44I can't remember the top of my head now, but the New York Times did

42:46break this down on how many deportations.

42:48And I think they estimate 460 ,000 for the year.

42:52Lower than Trump's million. But the goal is to make it so people believe that

42:58they will not get away with it eventually.

42:59And they self -deport. That's the only way you're going to get to the massive

43:0210 to 20 million numbers of self -deportations, but they are happening.

43:07Secondly, Republicans are always concerned that if Democrats control the presidency, house and Senate, they

43:11will pass amnesty. Why did they not do this during Obama or Biden's years when

43:15they controlled everything? Well, during the Biden years, they did not control everything because they

43:19didn't have, they have like exactly 51 senators or 50 senators.

43:22So not enough to get an amnesty through.

43:26On the Democratic side, on Obama's years, they did have two years or maybe it

43:30was less than two years.

43:31So I think Scott Brown was elected at some point.

43:33They had basically two years to get their dream goal.

43:35was done and their dream goal so they had every kind of vote you possibly

43:39want were health care and the banks and amnesty just wasn't one of them um

43:44i i don't know that was just the priority of pelosi and harry reid at

43:49the time amnesty was not an issue remember reid especially being a democrat even in

43:54the early 2000s this is just the mid 2000s was very skeptical on a lot

43:58of immigration positions so the that class of democrats weren't as um weren't as hungry

44:05as they were for you know regulating the banks and for uh changing and ruining

44:09our health care system okay lastly are republicans so beholden to big corporations that they

44:14don't understand that they are in favor of bringing in people in this country who

44:17will never vote for them yes yes they are yes they are they do believe

44:23eventually that they will all vote for them they have almost a religiosity i have

44:28talked to republicans who believe that within 20 years all these people could vote republicans

44:33and they're all delusional they are all delusional it has never been the case there

44:38is never not even in the reagan 84 election been a case where a majority

44:42of latinos have ever voted for republicans nationwide not one time has never happened among

44:47recent immigrants uh what with the exception of 2024 where there was a surge of

44:52white immigrants voting republican never been a case where um where recent immigrants vote vote

44:59republican and remember that was with high inflation and uh the border and now all

45:05the rest of it they are totally delusional to this idea and the bigger problem

45:10is is that for a lot of republicans nationwide not just on the hill there

45:16is this generic ted cruz style opinion legal immigration good illegal immigration bad it doesn't

45:24it that's the only difference no that's not the only difference it's not immigrants are

45:28not like a bag of oranges where you got to buy the whole entire bag

45:31in order to get the oranges no you can pick and choose we're seeing this

45:35debate a lot with indian immigration in texas there's been a big backlash remember and

45:40indian immigrants super successful nice enough people you know all the rest of it i'm

45:45not saying anything bad about indian immigration however when there is a surge of immigrants

45:50moving into an area social capital decreases this is true of every single country in

45:57the world where it's ever been studied nothing decreases social capital like mass immigration it

46:03is decreasing social capital in the suburbs of dallas where there's mass indian immigration doesn't

46:08make them bad people but mass immigration depletes that people not only do not only

46:15trust those who look different than them less they trust others who look the same

46:20as them less that's all happening right and that's among an ideal immigrant class low

46:25welfare high you know high others they're not they're overall good immigrant group to bring

46:31in but i need to stress it's a good immigrant group to bring in because

46:36in comparison to the population of india we have a very small amount of indians

46:42living in this country now let's say we change our immigration policy and say look

46:45how successful india is we're going to take in 40 million indians 50 million immigrants

46:49uh indians a total over 10 years we're going to bring in 5 million indians

46:53a year the beginning process will be highly successful college educated all the rest of

46:58it but as chain migration continues as those barriers to entry kind of fall away

47:04all you need to do is be related to somebody who already lives here we

47:08are going to get less and less prosperous immigrants that's how that works mexico mexico

47:15you'd rather be if you had to live in two different countries you'd rather live

47:18in mexico than india right gdp per capita in mexico much higher than india uh

47:23prosperity in a lot of parts of mexico even though there's a middle class other

47:27things that exist in mexico that are institutionally better than india however indians living in

47:33america much more successful than india than a mexicans living in america why we have

47:38a third of mexico's population living here we have 0 .001 of india's population living

47:43here we took the absolute best of india if we had a third of india's

47:47population we would look like india with mass poverty with mass other problems so you

47:54want to keep immigration among all countries depending regardless if they're india or mexico wherever

47:59you want to keep it small and you want to keep it to the best

48:02of the best republicans believe that they can make anyone but republican by selling them

48:07on you know neoconservatism and christianity and free markets and things that a lot of

48:12these immigrants wholesale reject they don't believe in and they have no exposure to it

48:16and um yeah it's it's i have no other way to say they have corporate

48:21donors begging them and telling them over and over again you know to give them

48:25to give them more immigrants and they just say yes because that's who they fall

48:28in love with not all of them there are amazing republicans jim bangs brandon gill

48:32there are some mary miller great republicans good on the issue most are not well

48:37informed enough and that is a tragedy all right guys that's this episode on and

48:43i know the election of virginia had already happened and i want you were probably

48:47expecting me to cover it as of the taping this episode i don't have the

48:49results and yet friday's episode deep dive into the referendum in virginia what went right

48:54what went wrong how the turnout happened we're going to get all into that for

48:57friday's episode so please like and subscribe on the iheart radio app apple podcast wherever

49:01you get this podcast and on youtube and i will see you guys on Thank

49:03you.

It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Fetterman’s Fallout: PA Politics, Israel Divide & 2026 Power Shifts