It's a Numbers Game: Virginia Redistricting Fight, GOP Special Election Win, and What the 2026 Numbers Mean
3/13/202642 mincomplete
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast.
0:02Guaranteed Human. Welcome back to a Numbers Game Podcast with Ryan Gerduski.
0:39Thank you guys for being here again.
0:41Happy Friday. We've made it through another week.
0:43And we have a lot to catch up on.
0:45There's a lot of things going on in the news that just kind of come
0:48at you so quickly that you really don't.
0:50I'm not a daily show, so I don't have every day to talk about.
0:53But these are the things I think are worth picking up on, especially when it
0:57comes to what's going on with elections.
0:59And a lot of the earlier numbers coming out of Virginia for their redistricting efforts.
1:03So let's get into it.
1:04First, some good news for Republicans.
1:07GOP candidate Gene LaCroix flipped a Democrat seat in Prince William County Board of a
1:13Supervisor. So this is local.
1:15This is like county legislature type thing.
1:18But it's important because Prince William County is the second most populated county in the
1:23state of Virginia. Democrats now have a 5 -3 majority.
1:27They're one seat away from tying it up.
1:29And two seats away from flipping the majority.
1:31It'd be a big deal.
1:31It's the first time in 38 years that this seat has flipped from Democrat to
1:37Republican. So what happened? Democrats nominated a guy named Mohamed Serf Kassim.
1:43And he won his primary by a mere 33 votes running to the far left
1:47of the Democratic Party. Well, it turns out Mr.
1:51Kassim was a big fan of writing things on social media.
1:55This is the story that is going to come out more and more and more
2:00as more millennials are running for office and we are the generation that were like
2:04the more or less the guinea pigs of social media, really liking to put whatever
2:08they wanted to out there.
2:09Well, from 2012 to 2015, Mr.
2:13Kassim, who is Muslim, liked to put the N -word on social media a lot.
2:20Like a lot, a lot.
2:21He's a big fan of the N -word with the soft A, not the hard
2:24R. Not that that makes a difference, but nonetheless, he would joke about things like
2:28this is one of the more wholesome jokes I can tell.
2:31He said, you can't call a tigger, sorry, you can't call a tiger a tiga.
2:36Only they can call themselves tiga, which is like more harmless, I guess, than the
2:41other ones were explicit, like N -word, N -word, N -word.
2:44Also, you can imagine a man with the name Mohammed Serf Kassim, probably not a
2:50big fan of Jews or feminism.
2:53His laundry list of comments even caused Democrats' demand that he step down.
2:58And when he refused, the candidate decided, the candidate who had lost the primary decided
3:03to run a write -in campaign, believing he could win just doing a write -in
3:08campaign and flip the district as a Democrat, but independent Democrat.
3:13Well, he was wrong. In the end, Ms.
3:14LaCroix, the Republican, won by seven points, winning 44 % of the vote in a
3:18basically three -way race. This is especially important, given what I said to you last
3:24episode about Maine Democrat Graham Plattner.
3:27Lots of things he's written on social media.
3:29Same things with James Tallarico.
3:31I mentioned that like last week about the Texas guy.
3:33Lots of things on social media.
3:35Lots of things that Republicans are now spending a lot of money on talking about
3:39his social media history. If you're going to run for office years beforehand, you should
3:45probably start scrubbing your social media.
3:47It works in your favor.
3:49The best case of this is Congressman Abe Hamaday from Arizona.
3:54He's a Republican, wrote on social media a lot, loved to call, and he was
4:00a younger guy in his early 20s and his mid -20s, loved to call Republicans
4:04racist, loved to call Republicans who support immigration restrictionist racist, yada, yada, yada, yada.
4:09And then, for whatever reason, 2016 to 2018, his entire social media scrubbed.
4:17Can't imagine why, what his original opinions of Donald Trump were.
4:20My guess is it's not what he says now.
4:23Nonetheless, there's no proof because he deleted, he was smart.
4:26He was smart to delete his social media in those years where he was probably
4:31more than the average Republican was hesitant towards Trump at the time.
4:39He was probably calling Trump a racist every five seconds.
4:41We don't know because he's a social media, but nonetheless, if you're going to run
4:44for office and you like to be spicy on social media, years beforehand, delete it
4:48all. Okay, now there's good news for Democrats.
4:51Democrats overperformed in a number of special elections, especially in state legislatures.
4:56They flipped a seat in the New Hampshire State House of Representatives.
4:59New Hampshire State House has 400 seats, so it wasn't like it's a big seat.
5:03It's basically like a block or two.
5:05It's a small, tiny district.
5:07Voters swung 17 points to the left in this New Hampshire district in the area
5:11of Carroll. It was a district that Trump won by nine points.
5:15In Georgia's 14th congressional district, a Republican and Democrat are headed to a runoff.
5:21This is the old March.
5:22Drew Taylor Greene Congressional District, the Democrats are so far outperforming where they were in
5:282024 by 17 points. It's such a Republican seat that it doesn't matter if the
5:33Republican is going to win, but they are Democrats are overperforming again.
5:37In the Georgia State Senate District that Trump won by 58 points and had a
5:41special election, Democrats overperformed Kamala Howard's results by 12 points.
5:46And then in another special election in Georgia in the statehouse, which is a super
5:50Democratic area, Democrats still overperformed by 8 points.
5:54So this is not great.
5:55When you look at the total of the 30 special elections that occurred in 2026,
6:01just this year so far, in the first three months of this year, Democrats on
6:05average have outperformed where they were in those districts in 2024 by 12 points, very
6:12similar to the 12 .2 points Democrats outperformed their 2024 numbers in 2025.
6:18And that year was a landslide victory in November.
6:21That year was a shellacking for Republicans.
6:23Now, as I said in the past, Republicans have been doing better in special elections
6:28this year than they were the year before.
6:30That all started to change at the end of February.
6:33At the end of February, for whatever reason, Republicans had six or seven special elections
6:38where they were just getting obliterated and their average, which was getting much better, just
6:43fell apart. It just completely fell apart.
6:45I don't understand why the last six or seven special elections have gone so heavily
6:50to Democrats when the previous special elections just a few weeks before were going more
6:54towards Republicans. It could be a candidate thing.
6:57It could just be the news cycle.
6:58It could be the Iran war.
6:59I don't really know. But that has changed the averages to really match 2025.
7:05And it could be a precursor towards the November election if Republicans don't start getting
7:09energized. It shows this. These special elections are important because they show that Democrats really
7:16have tremendous energy. They're they are angry.
7:19They are passionate. They're talking about things like democracy that I know like average voters
7:23aren't talking about, but they're worried about it.
7:25They're still going to know King's rally.
7:26They are ready for November.
7:29I don't know if Republicans realize how energized they are.
7:33Like it's going to be very close to may not be presidential election numbers, but
7:37it's going to be very, very high.
7:40And the only exception, the only case where this is not true is when you
7:43have a Democrat who likes to say the N word and rail against Jews and
7:47women on social media. In that case, Republicans are still doing pretty good.
7:51But that's not that's not every case.
7:53That's only a few. Now, while we're on the subject of elections, let's talk about
7:57Virginia, which is having the early vote for their redistricting.
8:01They're having a constitutional amendment.
8:03Remember, the court said we are going to review if this change in districts is
8:08legal after the people vote on it, which I don't understand.
8:11I think that's the stupidest thing in the world.
8:14But they're going to look at this after this after the vote.
8:18So there's an early vote coming up right now for a change in the Virginia
8:21Constitution, which would turn Virginia.
8:25Virginia is currently. Remember, this is a state that went for Kamala Harris by six
8:28points, currently has five safe or likely Democratic House seats, four safe or likely Republican
8:35seats and two swing seats, one which has a Republican in it with one which
8:39has a Democrat in it.
8:40It would change that very balanced map to being 10 Democrat seats, hard Democrat seats,
8:46one Republican. It's pretty fair to say that this is one of the most egregious
8:52examples of gerrymandering in the entire country.
8:56It's up there with Illinois.
8:57It's up there with California.
8:59It's up there with, I mean, Tennessee, maybe you could argue.
9:03There's very other few cases where there's this heavy level of gerrymandering, and they are
9:09aggressively going after taking out four Republicans in the House of Representatives.
9:14Well, the early vote is in so far, and I have some numbers to report
9:18to. Now, remember, Virginia does not have party registration.
9:22So it's not like I can say this many Republicans or this many Democrats.
9:25I don't know why they don't have party registration.
9:26I think states that don't have party registration are crazy and chaotic.
9:30I like party registration, but they don't have it.
9:33So what we're going to is based off of the counties and how they performed
9:38in the governor's election, off of the 2025 election.
9:42So far, nine of the 10 counties most overperforming in the early vote so far
9:48voted Republican. Seven of the top 10 bottom counties that are underperforming their early vote
9:54from 2025 are Democratic counties.
9:57According to Chaz Nutty -Kohm of State Navigator, he says, one thing is absolutely clear
10:03right now. In the early in -person votes so far, Republicans are ahead.
10:07A lot of Western Republican -dominated localities have more votes so far than they did
10:12the same day equivalent in 2025.
10:14There aren't any Spanberger -1 localities running ahead.
10:18Now, remember, Virginia is still a Democratic state.
10:24So the Republicans are running ahead of where they were running in 2025.
10:29That does not mean that they were ahead.
10:31More money and more resources have to be poured because you also need to try
10:35to win the independent vote.
10:36You don't need to tell independents this is unfair.
10:39This is allowing politicians to pick their voters rather than voters picking their politicians.
10:44Really lean in heavily on that and try to get them.
10:50Virginia voters, I feel, would be more fair to that kind of messaging than, let's
10:54say, California, especially California has already happened and Texas has already happened.
11:00So they both took out five.
11:02Texas took out five Democrats.
11:04California took out five Republicans.
11:06They both, you know, split the baby.
11:08There's no reason to go in now on Virginia.
11:11It's not like Republicans are getting this massive lead in the redistricting efforts the way
11:18the White House thought they would.
11:19The White House made this big gamble and it's not really working out, I think,
11:22as they expected. But I want to emphasize this is very early.
11:27This was a baseball game.
11:28We are not even out of the first inning yet.
11:30This is the first week of early voting.
11:33But Republicans so far are showing up.
11:36They're showing up because they're angry and anger motivates people to go vote.
11:40It is why Democrats are voting in these special elections.
11:43It's why they're going to vote in November.
11:45But this case of the Virginia redistricting is motivating a lot of Republicans to show
11:52up. And you know what I would say is if you're a Republican politician or
11:57political advisor or consultant or activist or whatnot, what I would do if you were
12:04in Virginia, look at every person on the voter rolls with a Persian last name,
12:11Persian, Farsi, whatever the case is, where their family probably comes from Iran and send
12:16them an email or reach out to them or doorknock to them and say, did
12:20you vote? We need you to vote no.
12:21If you vote yes, they're going to indict President Trump who just killed the dictator
12:25that forced your family to flee.
12:26I would do that for Venezuelans.
12:28I would do that. I mean, Venezuelans is hard because it's not like as unique
12:31of a last name as Persian is.
12:33But I would do it for every single group that has huge levels of support
12:39for Donald Trump. I think that would be really, really, really important.
12:42Mobilization in these elections is key right now.
12:46And the Republican rules and the Republican exurbs really need to show up in presidential
12:52full force to make sure that this does not go through.
12:54OK, that is my update for the special election and redistricting fight in Virginia.
12:59Once again, Democrats are probably having the early vote because it's the fundamentals of the
13:03state, but Republicans are doing the job and need to continue doing it.
13:07I'm going to have now a longer than usual Ask Me Anything segment for this
13:12Friday episode. That's coming up next.
13:14Stay tuned. Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment.
13:20If you want any part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email me ryan at
13:23numbersgamepodcast .com. That's ryan at numbers, plural numbersgamepodcast .com.
13:27I will take any questions you have.
13:29People have asked me, is so -and -so good -looking in real life?
13:33They'll ask me about books, movies, whatever the case is.
13:36Let's get to it. I mean, it has to be semi -appropriate for the show.
13:39But if it's OK, I'll still answer it.
13:41OK, first question comes from Derek.
13:42He says, hey, Ryan, big fan of the show.
13:44I recently saw you post on Congressman Crenshaw and the insider trading after his primary
13:49loss. I used to believe that, but I don't think that's accurate now.
13:52Maybe it doesn't matter. But if you listen to the mic drop podcast he did
13:56in February, he brings the receipts and the proof so you can ask for the
14:00show if he really didn't do that much, if anything at all.
14:03I get what you're saying.
14:05And he talks about how Crenshaw is very talented.
14:07Yes, Crenshaw is very talented.
14:09Here's the thing. So, and maybe I misrepresented what I was saying.
14:13It is not that I was saying he does the most amount of stock trading.
14:18He doesn't. That's not the case.
14:20He defended it the loudest, which makes no sense why you would defend it the
14:25loudest if you're not doing the most of it, right?
14:28And I don't think he was doing most of it.
14:30He just, you know, even Nancy Pelosi.
14:33Nancy Pelosi is all about banning stock trading for, I mean, publicly is banning stock
14:38trading for congressmen, and she does millions of dollars in stock trades.
14:43Like, it's crazy. But for some reason, he allowed himself to be the face of
14:47it. It made utterly no sense at all.
14:51I want to make something else very, very clear.
14:53It wasn't that he was moderate, because he wasn't moderate.
14:57I know people like to say that he was moderate.
14:59But he had a Republican voting record, like, you know, a standard Republican.
15:02He voted with Trump almost 100 % of the time.
15:06The problem with Dan Crenshaw was this.
15:08He was extremely, extremely arrogant.
15:13I had friends, I have a lot of friends in the Texas political circles.
15:17They told me he started pulling his ads from Texas, from the TVs in Texas,
15:21TV ads, three weeks before election day, thinking he didn't need them.
15:25So why spend the money?
15:26He insulted donors who went back to Ted Cruz to get Ted Cruz involved.
15:32He had, and I'm not making a light of this, he has basically no friends
15:38in Congress. No one really enjoyed being around him.
15:41And even the craziest members have friends.
15:44Even George Santos had friends.
15:45Like, you could, he was just obsessively and obscenely arrogant and went out of his
15:53way to make people not like him.
15:57And he was very talented, and he was a great communicator.
16:00And it's a loss to Republicans, but it is a character flaw on his part.
16:04So I'm not saying he did the most insider trading and stock trading.
16:08I'm not saying that at all.
16:09And if I did say, if I alluded to it, I'm sorry, but he chose
16:14to make himself the face of it by defending it so vocally.
16:17Once again. makes no sense, completely arrogant, and that's why he lost.
16:22Okay, next question comes from Michael.
16:24Michael wrote, Noam has had to go.
16:26She turned Trump's strongest issue, immigration, and not only made it a liability, but made
16:31it a big positive issue for Democrats.
16:33Frankly, she wasn't smart enough and experienced enough to run DHS.
16:38Here's the rumor on the street.
16:41You want to hear it?
16:43Allegedly, let me take a sip of water for this one.
16:46Now, allegedly, after Trump's victory, he allegedly reached out to Corey Lewandowski and allegedly said
16:57to Corey, I'd like to offer you some kind of job for being so loyal.
17:01And Corey really went to bat for Christie.
17:07And Trump nominated Christie on True Social, and allegedly, he has a tendency, Trump, when
17:16he's worked up, when he's angry, when someone can press his buttons in the right
17:20way, if he's alone, to take to True Social to proclaim something, and once it's
17:26out in the ether, it's out in the ether.
17:28There's no one who's going to take it back.
17:30So maybe, possibly, there was allegedly the same situation going on with Corey, Christie, and
17:39Trump, where Trump was all worked up.
17:43He was, you know, that Corey was, you know, along with them, and was really
17:50pushing for Trump to pick Christie and was doing it before everyone was on the
17:59same page with it. Allegedly.
18:01Who knows? Maybe it's not true, but I've heard it from a bunch of people.
18:05You're right. But for those who are watching this program on YouTube, this is my
18:09dog on my lap. It's not, I have this, he just won't shut up.
18:13So he's sitting in my lap while I'm answering these questions.
18:16But you ask, but is Mullen really the best choice to take over?
18:19He has no law enforcement experience or any experience running a large bureaucracy, but plus
18:24he's very combative. Much of the administration's problems is how their spokesmen come across as
18:28unnecessarily aggressive. Noam was a failure with the whole girl boss persona.
18:35Okay. Well, here's the thing.
18:37So is he the best congressman on immigration, best center on immigration?
18:40No, he's not. But on interior enforcement and on border security, he has an A
18:46plus rating from number USA.
18:48So there's that. That's the job.
18:49He's got an A plus rating where it matters, right?
18:52So take that for what it's worth.
18:55Secondly, he will not be on an island by himself, right?
18:59There will still be people like Tom Homan, who was completely sidelined, according to Politico,
19:06by the Lewandowski gnome, you know, click.
19:11P .S., by the way, this story of the $220 million were the ads and
19:21which companies got those bids and how they were connected to Corey Christie and their
19:27affiliates is not going away.
19:31If Democrats take over, I will bet to my bottom dollar there will be an
19:39indictment going on over this.
19:42And if they take over the presidency, there will be a special counsel possibly or
19:47just a, the attorney general will make some kind of effort to get them behind
19:54bars for this, for corruption.
19:56I'm just, side note to everything, I've been thinking about this a lot lately and
20:00the more I look at it, the actual, the worse it gets with Christie, Corey
20:04and their click. Anyway, back to Mullen.
20:07He's not alone on the island.
20:08He will still have Stephen Miller.
20:09I think he will lean heavier on Tom Homan, which is a good thing.
20:12Homan's experience. He's very smart.
20:15And, and yeah, and I, I think that he's gonna, I think he's gonna be
20:18part of the team. I think he's gonna be a team player which is what
20:20you need. And, I, I say give him a chance.
20:24You know, he wouldn't be my first pick, but he wouldn't be on my radar
20:27at all just because I wouldn't consider him for that job.
20:30But apparently Trump did. And, let's just hope for the best.
20:35You also ask about President Trump firing Pam Bondi.
20:38I don't think that's gonna happen.
20:40I think he really likes Pam Bondi.
20:41I know she's got the Epstein files.
20:45Allegedly, she was in a bathroom with influencers, the ladies' bathroom, talking very loudly about
20:55how Anna Paulina Luna, the congressman from Florida, was pushing her on the issue and
21:01how much she hated Anna Paulina Luna for pushing her on the issue.
21:04and that's kind of why she released those binders full of nothing.
21:09Okay, next question comes from Connor.
21:11Connor goes, hey Ryan, huge fan of your work.
21:14Excited to have your own show.
21:16Thanks, Connor. I mean, 25 -year -old male that grew up in South Erie County,
21:20New York, a fellow New Yorker, although that's like Western New York, in a town
21:24called Concord, went to school at the University of Alabama.
21:26There you go. was a Catholic college missionary for the last two years in a
21:32different southern state and about to start a new job at an actuary in Atlanta.
21:38I don't know what an actuary does.
21:40I think that's, I don't know what it does.
21:41Good luck to you though.
21:43I grew up in a very politically conservative family and culture -shaped.
21:45A lot of my opinions in early college.
21:47This area is ground zero for Rust Belt decline and American stagnation.
21:51And she was one of the few to call out trade policies and immigration causes.
21:54Side note, I'm praying for her conversion.
21:57I don't think that that's going to happen.
22:01It's one of the things we talk about politics a lot.
22:04We've learned to stop talking too much about religion, Ann and I.
22:08Okay, questions. W .N. Western New York is largely forgotten about in the context of
22:13national politics. Do you have an insight into the future trends of political history of
22:16the area there? Yes, because New York State is out of play.
22:20If Western New York was its own state or upstate, whatever that really means, I
22:27guess west of Albany was its own state, it would 100 % be in play
22:32right now because it would be a swing state.
22:34Because New York State is not a swing state, it is not given any kind
22:40of coverage. It's unfair. I think it's completely unfair.
22:42I think that part of New York desperately needs some kind of intervention and some
22:47kind of help. Places, towns that were amazing.
22:49And then Kodak left. I forget which city it was.
22:52And it just devastated it.
22:53Maybe it left Rochester. Just devastated it.
22:56And that whole area, Niagara, Jamestown, Erie, Buffalo, it absolutely needs help.
23:02But that's really why because it's in a blue state.
23:04Otherwise, if it was in Pennsylvania, if that was part of Pennsylvania, it would 1
23:08million percent get a lot of coverage.
23:11Is there any data on how people vote that move to a different state?
23:16For example, what are the political characteristics of California or New Yorkers that move to
23:20Tennessee or Georgia? This is a great question.
23:22The New York Times, I get the question asked a lot.
23:24The New York Times did a fabulous breakdown of how voters are moving.
23:30Most voters who are Democrat move to Democrat super areas.
23:35So they don't go. Most Democrats do not move to a purple area.
23:39They do not move to a red area.
23:40They may move to a red state, but they will only move to the bluest
23:43parts of that red state.
23:45And what happened during COVID, especially Governor DeSantis is team calling this.
23:49What happened during COVID was so many New Yorkers and so many Democrats from across
23:55the country really bought the media's big bag of bullshit on on COVID statistics that
24:02they thought moving to Texas or Florida was a death sentence.
24:06They were like, absolutely not.
24:07You know, it's death sentence.
24:09Millions of people are going to die in that state because they are not all
24:11wearing masks and living in plastic bubbles.
24:14And that kept people, Democrats, far away from those states.
24:19It really supercharged the Republican enrollment registration over in Florida.
24:25OK, last question you asked.
24:27Maybe too personal, free to ignore.
24:29Clearly, pro -life positions are an electoral milestone.
24:32I love J .D. Vance for being, but I'm saddened to see him move away
24:35from his total pro -life position, although I'm completely understanding given the political context.
24:39I know you have mentioned New York Catholic.
24:41Do you have a difficult time watching the Republican Party slowly drift left on social
24:44issues? Is there any data to indicate that some Republicans will eventually sit things out
24:49of the party goes too far left?
24:51OK. This is a so I worked for J .D.
24:53and I am Catholic. No, I'm not sad because the Republican Party's job is to
25:00represent voters. The Republican Party's job is to get people elected to office.
25:05Your job as a Catholic, clearly a very serious one, your job as a, you
25:12know, pro -life person is to try to reduce the number of abortions.
25:18But it's very difficult for J .D.
25:23to or whoever, Trump, to say we need more abortion laws restrictions when all the
25:28states that have done the restrictions are Republican states.
25:31Now, you could sit there and say we should and I know you said sit
25:34there and say, but you could say we should try to force us on the
25:37blue states. But we've gotten a lot done on the red states.
25:42The progression on the pro -life movement is so immense.
25:46You know, you're 25 years old, so I'm not saying you're dumb, but you I
25:50don't mean to say it, but you're not.
25:51I'm saying you've gotten a much smaller series of life experiences and maybe knowledge on
25:58the political past. I would say 2012.
26:042012, I want to say 2012 was the first time the Republican Party, or maybe
26:10even 2016, was the first time the Republican Party had only pro -lifers running for
26:16president on their party's ticket.
26:18That's how that is how much the pro -choice part of the party was very
26:25dominant. I know the narrative is that they never, you know, Republicans were always against
26:28abortion. Yes, there were wings.
26:30The Republican Party was against abortion.
26:32But as a whole, there were a plethora of pro -choicers that dominated the party.
26:38I mean, all you have left now is Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins, really, at
26:43the Senate anyway. You have a handful of people in the House, and that's about
26:47it. The progression of the Republican Party to spend decades working to nominate pro -life
26:55judges to get Roe v.
26:57Wade overturned. And if your goal, and this is what I always express to pro
27:04-lifers who are disappointed, your goal should be one goal, reduce the number of abortions
27:10until Roe was overturned. The number of abortions nationwide was significantly declining, and then it
27:19spiked up. So the goal should not be, hey, let's pass an abortion man everywhere.
27:25We should go back, you know, several stages before Roe was overturned.
27:29And what was the pro -life movement doing?
27:31Let's make sure that abortion clinics are near hospitals.
27:35Let's make sure that there are more regulations on the abortion industry.
27:39Make it more difficult for abortion clinics to operate, and that will put them out
27:46of business. That's what the pro -life movement was doing until Roe was overturned.
27:52And then they said, no, actually, forget all these laws.
27:54Let's just get it banned everywhere, even though it was not politically feasible.
27:58Do what's politically feasible to achieve your goal.
28:02Don't ask for a purity task.
28:04I'm not yelling at you, but don't ask for a purity task where you're saying
28:07it has to be this way.
28:09No, let's just reduce the number of dead babies, however that may be.
28:13And that may look different in different places.
28:16And that may not be possible in certain places right now.
28:19But where it's possible, do what's possible.
28:22And where it isn't possible, look to change it.
28:26That is the real message that I would say.
28:29And as far as other social policies, yeah, gay marriage is out the door.
28:32That's not the issue. And I think that that's, you know, that is very clear
28:36to everybody. It's like the gun issue.
28:40Do you know, in 1987, in the year that I was born, the only state
28:44to have constitutional carry was Vermont.
28:47Texas was, it had so many regulations on guns.
28:51States in the West had so many regulations on guns.
28:55It was insane. A majority of states now have constitutional carry, including half of the
29:00states in New England. So you may say the social, the conservative movement isn't winning
29:07anything, hasn't conserved anything. It's nonsense.
29:10It's just not true. People have spent decades building this and doing little things here
29:15and there and here and there that have made tremendous progress.
29:19It's not perfect, but America is safer today than it ever has been.
29:23Hmm, America's got more pro -life bills, you know, in law since the 1970s.
29:29There are more rights to own guns than ever before.
29:33I think going back to like the revolution, there are immense gains that even social
29:38conservatives have made. Where they have failed is that not everybody has been carried out
29:44in their own personal lives, which the government can't control and you shouldn't ask it
29:46to. You should do the most for what you can with what you have.
29:50Okay, more Ask Me Anything is coming up next.
29:56Okay, it's time for more Ask Me Anything.
29:58This question comes from Kelly.
30:00She says, hey, Ryan, love your show.
30:01I'd like to hear your thoughts about the Illinois gubernatorial election.
30:04I'm a lifelong Illinois resident who despises Pritzker and he has done to our state,
30:09particularly during COVID. Darren Bailey seems to be the front runner for the Republican nomination,
30:14but he already lost the Pritzker once.
30:16This person I like, Ted Dabrowski, I mean, fellow Polak, hello, but I'm not sure
30:20he has enough support. We'd love to hear your thoughts on the candidate if they
30:23have a shot being Pritzker.
30:25Yeah, Pritzker, I mean, listen, Pritzker's got a gajillion dollars.
30:30He's rich as anything. There's no way to kind of circle that, and he's the
30:36incumbent. It's just going to be very difficult.
30:39I'm looking if there's any polls right now.
30:41I've seen them, but I haven't seen Republicans really make any inroads anywhere enough.
30:48You know, the problem is, is that Illinois, even worse than New York, is so
30:54dominated by such a heavy population concentration in one specific area.
31:02And whenever a state has that, you really have a difficulty where that state calls
31:07all the shots. And Chicago just calls all the shots.
31:10Chicago and the strong suburbs.
31:11And a lot of those suburbs are just woke, lefty places.
31:16I mean, that's just the truth of it.
31:19So Republicans can make, and Democrats have done a tremendous job at gerrymandering.
31:24Tremendous. I mean, one of the most talented gerrymandering, I think, in the entire country,
31:29both in Congress and in the state legislature.
31:31They did it hook, line, and sinker to make sure voters have no say in
31:36anything. They just did. Democrats were, I mean, listen, hats off to Democrats.
31:41You did it. You made sure you disenfranchised every voter in Illinois, and you did
31:46it right. So, so far in, so I'm looking at the polls right now.
31:50So far, Bailey has a significant lead, but it's not, you know, overwhelming.
31:54And in the general election right now, Pritzker has a 20 -point lead.
32:00I just think that Illinois is just in rough shape.
32:03I mean, it's just in rough shape right now.
32:06I don't know how else to say it.
32:07I mean, I know New York is, I know a lot of other places are,
32:11but Illinois is in probably, of all the big blue states, Illinois is probably in
32:15the worst shape that there is.
32:16I think it's even in the worst shape in California.
32:18Okay. Next question comes from John.
32:21I know that wasn't, by the way, Kelly, that wasn't an uplifting thing.
32:23I know I usually give a positive thing, but it's not great in Illinois.
32:29If there is a strong candidate who's going to run, they're going to run, wait
32:33until Pritzker is no longer the nominee and have a vacant seat in a better
32:37year. Maybe that's the ray of hope.
32:39Next question comes from John.
32:40John, John. Ryan, are there any state propositions to amend this constitution to require voter
32:45ID in state and federal elections?
32:49How hard is it to get a proposition on the ballot?
32:51What does it cost? In AZ, we had a proposition in 309, but it lost
32:54by 18 ,000 votes in 2022.
32:56Help me understand the results versus, I suppose, at 80 % broad support for voter
33:02ID, the media claims. Does it really has broad support?
33:05It seems that voter ID should have the advances, advanced by the right, like abortion,
33:10and was ensconced in the state constitution by the left.
33:13Okay, thank you. That's a really great question.
33:16So it depends on the state.
33:19State by state, there is a multitude of different ways to get a ballot proposition.
33:23Some states don't even have ballot propositions, but it is a multitude of different states
33:29that have a different regulation.
33:31So it's impossible for me to say, can you get it here?
33:33Can you get it there?
33:34I don't know. As far as propositions to get voter ID on the ballot, I
33:39have not seen any as of yet.
33:41They should have already been processed.
33:44We've already seen them. Usually there's a signatory, like you need signatures and money and
33:52time. I would say it's less money than it is just you need a ton
33:56of volunteers signatures and someone with a little political knowledge to know dates and deadlines
34:02and requirements as far as that goes.
34:05And when you file anything that comes with signatures, you always need to get more
34:11because people claim a signature is bad or it's not the right person or it's
34:15not the right signature and they always file signatures.
34:16So if it requires 10 ,000 signatures, you need 30 ,000 signatures, that kind of
34:21thing. As far as the proposition goes for, I had not heard of this one
34:27before you sent me the email.
34:29As for Proposition 309 in Arizona, I was not aware of it before you had
34:34mentioned it. Yeah, there was a proposition to require the exact quote was, the exact
34:40phrase was, it would require voter ID on mail -in ballots.
34:45So it says, a vote for yes was making multiple changes to Arizona voter identification
34:49and mail -in ballot policies, including a required dates of birth and voter ID number
34:54for mail -in ballots and eliminating the existing two document alternative to voter ID or
34:59in -person voting. It lost 50 point, the voters said no, 50 .38 to 49
35:07.62. Very, very, very close.
35:09It was about, yeah, 18 ,500 votes.
35:12So I'm looking up this, this, this case and all I can come down to
35:18as to why, I think this is right after the, you know, Arizona claim that
35:24the election was stolen, which you can or cannot believe, I'm not going to relitigate
35:27it, but it left a lot of people in Arizona with very, very sour grapes.
35:33And I think that Carrie Lake running the campaign that she ran, as she ran
35:39it, made the issue, associated the issue with her and voters did not like her.
35:46And I think that it really affected kind of everybody.
35:49And Democrats had a surge that year.
35:50So all I can sit there and tell you is that Democrats had a surge
35:52that year and they were voting against anything that reminded them that the election was
35:56stolen. I don't know, because usually those valid measures when they're brought up for a
35:59vote actually passed. So I don't know, try it again.
36:02I think if they brought up again, it probably would pass.
36:05Arizona, by the way, was a state that did not recognize Martin Luther King Day
36:09and it was brought up for a vote and they voted it down and they
36:11voted for it. So bring up for a vote again.
36:14Okay. Next question comes from Junipero writes, Hey Ryan, hope you're getting through Lent without
36:18many breaks to your sacrifices.
36:20I have broken it twice, Junipero.
36:22I gave up secular music for Lent and I listened to music all day long,
36:29every day. So it's actually been a sacrifice.
36:32And I have to tell you, the problem is Christian rock is genuinely awful.
36:37I mean, there's like a few people who do a decent job, but it's genuinely
36:41some of the worst music I've ever heard.
36:44There's a guy who sings a song called Counting My Blessings.
36:46He's good. There's literally, there's like a handful, there's maybe like five people who do
36:50a decent job. No one is like an amazing job.
36:54And I like, I like a lot of gospel music, but you can only listen
36:57to it so many times.
36:58Like it's been very, very rough this Lent.
37:01I thought that it was going to be much easier.
37:03It is not. What does the data show about the value of phone banking for
37:07campaigns? Not in polling. I worked on a congressional campaign a few years ago and
37:12after 2000 phone calls, I had fewer than 10 conversations, more than five minutes longer
37:16than the vast majority of people who didn't pick up, hang up immediately or already
37:20have their minds set up on the issues.
37:22Putting aside the advice of professional campaign consultants who charge exorbitant fees, even in unwindable
37:28races, is there any real value to phone banking?
37:34In my opinion, this is not what every consultant will tell you.
37:37In my opinion, not anymore.
37:39There once was. That's absolutely true.
37:42Once upon a time, phone banking made a big difference.
37:45And also, if you have volunteers that have nothing to do, you might as well
37:51have them phone bank. You got to do something, right?
37:53If you have a bunch of older women there and they want to do something
37:57to help you and they can't doorknock, well then, yes, then go make phone calls.
38:01If you have that time.
38:02It can't be your whole entire campaign.
38:05And I would say the way you do it.
38:08do it properly, is you call people, if I was in charge of a phone
38:14bank, what I would do is this, organize the list of voters, 60 and older,
38:21and 60 and younger, and during the day, you call people 60 and older, more
38:26likely to retire, more likely to be home, more likely to answer the phone, call
38:29them during the day, they're out shopping, they have time, so they're in talk for
38:32a little bit, or they're not working, that's the point, they're not working, and then
38:36at, in the p .m.
38:37hours, I would get foreign language speakers, or bilingual speakers, and have them on the
38:45phone with people of the same surname that they speak the language for, I would
38:50not call the average show in the evening, no one answers the phone because of
38:54that, that's what I would do, so yes, can it be used effectively, yes, is
39:00it often used effectively, no, and it's really, the only way you want to use
39:04it is if you have volunteers, specifically senior citizens, who can't really walk, they can't
39:10go signwaving, they have to sit for long periods of time, but they have the
39:13time, they should be out doing the phone calling for free, consultants should not pay
39:17enormous amounts of fees for it, you can get burner phones, you can get call
39:21systems that dial automatically, whatever the case is, but that's my best advice for phone
39:26banking, I would not, if I was, I was actually just doing a school board
39:30election, and they asked if I wanted to pay for phone banking, and I said
39:32no, okay, last question comes from Sam, Sam says, hey Ryan, big fan and long
39:37-time listener, you held up your own against my client, Michael Tracy at the Soho
39:42Forum, that was such a great forum, I really enjoyed that, and Michael was a
39:47really, really nice guy, it was not the person I met him, but he was
39:51a really pleasant person to talk to, his mom was there, and if my memory
39:56serves me correct, I actually beat him at that forum in the debate, but he
39:59was very, very nice, I really don't like, not that most of my, I don't
40:03know who Michael Tracy is, but he's a left -wing blogger, and writer, and reporter,
40:09and he's made a big story about how he thinks a lot of the people
40:12who claimed to be abused by Epstein, their allegations would not stand up in court,
40:17and it's very thought -provoking, I don't know if I agree with it, I'm not
40:21like an expert on the Epstein stuff, but I find it intriguing and worth listening
40:25to, and the way people have treated him, and they've said, you know, he's being
40:29paid off, he's working for Mossad, whatever the case they've said, is really kind of
40:34gross, I just think he's a deeply intellectual and thoughtful person, and he's asking important
40:38questions, so where those questions lead, I'm not exactly sure, but I don't think that
40:43he's doing a bad thing by asking them.
40:45Okay, you said last week someone had a question about opposition to Virginia Democrats' redistricting
40:49effort, I'm sure you know this already, but just in case Eric Cantor, Jason Mears,
40:53and a few others formed a group in opposition to the new maps, despite the
40:57GOP leadership, it's a bipartisan effort, and the first TBS are airing tomorrow, okay, awesome,
41:03so they're already airing, here is the link, it's called vafairmaps .com, please feel free
41:09to spread the word, vafairmaps .com, thank you so much, Sam, that is so great,
41:16I definitely, well, I did already, but I'll share, I'll tweet it, I think that
41:19that's really, really important, and I think that, I think politicians should not pick their
41:23voters, voters should pick their politicians, it gets me annoyed when both parties do it,
41:28but now it's getting to a place where it's going to be like really insane
41:31as time starts picking up, and there's kind of, the train has left the station,
41:35I'm not in charge, I'll just report the facts to you guys, my, it's a
41:40quote friendly, but it's my great lot in life is that I am always a
41:43godfather and never a god, so I don't get to make any decisions about anything,
41:47no one listened to me anyway, all right guys, that's this episode, I hope you
41:50enjoyed it, I hope you liked this podcast, if you do, please like and subscribe
41:53on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcasts, or on YouTube, give
41:57me a thumbs up and press subscribe, I appreciate you, and if you're feeling really
42:01generous this weekend, a five -star review goes far so people could see the podcast,
42:05I will talk to you guys on Monday.
42:06I'll see you guys next time.