The Manosphere Report

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2:50Day eight of the Iran war.

2:52Trump declares he wants unconditional surrender.

2:56The Gulf states are getting pissed.

2:58The Iranian president apologizes to the Gulf states.

3:01Israel launches attacks into Lebanon, and the MAGA base continues to fracture.

3:08Today on The David Rutherford Show.

3:19Welcome back, friends. The only thing I have to say is I'm every bit as

3:24worried as you are. I don't think anybody in the United States right now or

3:29around the world isn't worried in some capacity.

3:33And I'll tell you what, you have every right to feel worried.

3:37I mean, even me with my limited experience in the SEAL teams working for the

3:43military industrial complex and working for the Central Intelligence Agency, all in very short periods

3:49during the early part of the GWAT, you know, I too am concerned as to

3:57what the outcome is going to be.

3:59We all are. That's a natural feeling that you should have.

4:03It's a feeling that requires, in my opinion, a deeper understanding of what the outcome

4:11potentially is going to be, and that's relative to what our key leaders, what our

4:17allies, and most especially what Iranian officials in the country of 93 million people, how

4:27they're going to react to all of this.

4:29So today, what I thought I would do is I would just break it down

4:33as best as possible just to get you up to speed with the things that

4:37I'm focusing on to keep me up to speed as well, too, so I can

4:42have better insights. So the three areas I'll focus on are militarily, what's taking place,

4:48what's happening, what's going on economically, what's taking place, what's some forecasting, what are some

4:57of the current situations and challenges, and then finally, politically, what I think is taking

5:04place and what we should be thinking about in terms of what we want our

5:12leaders to do and how to act moving forward.

5:16So, Jordy, what about you, man?

5:19How are you doing with how you're interpreting what's going on?

5:25it's a tragic situation. You know, uh, I've never been to war only read about

5:30it or watched it. Um, regardless of what you think about it, I just go

5:34back to what I hear people say.

5:36There's no winners in war.

5:38Right. And so I know that however this works out and it's already been happening,

5:42uh, it's going to, it's going to be rough.

5:45It's going to be rough no matter what happens.

5:46So that's just, it's just hard to swallow.

5:49Like you said, it is man.

5:51And I'll never forget the first time that I was ever exposed to it was

5:55I was up at, uh, uh, doing a postgraduate year in high school up in

5:59Connecticut when the first Gulf war broke out.

6:01And I remember watching CNN for 24 hours straight thinking to myself, well, I can

6:07cancel going to play football or across in college.

6:10Cause it appears I'm going to get drafted.

6:12I'm going to go fight in the middle East, you know?

6:15And at that point I really didn't understand much as it turns out, I ended

6:19up making my way there anyways.

6:21And like you said, um, there are no winners in war, um, regardless of what

6:28you want to believe or what you want to think of.

6:32And I'm by also, uh, by no measure, am I condemning, uh, anybody who, uh,

6:39adheres to the orders they're given and carries out their duties, uh, as they, you

6:44know, commit to our nation or other nations, right?

6:48Cause that's ultimately who takes the biggest brunt, right?

6:52Are the unsuspecting civilians, women and children and the elderly, and then the young men,

6:58mostly young men and the few women, uh, that have to engage in this conflict

7:03and have to suffer, uh, from the catastrophic results of it going sideways.

7:09So that's just, it's, it's good to always keep that in your mind when you're,

7:13you're, you're, you're evaluating the full context of what's going on.

7:17All right. So let's bring some context to you if you're listening.

7:19All right. So kind of a chronological events that started on February 28th, uh, we

7:27had a really amazing initial, uh, strikes taking place, approximately five to 600 targets were

7:35hit. And, you know, the interesting thing is, you know, that, that, that's a massive

7:39variation when you're talking about ballistic missile systems, the difference between 500 and 600 is

7:46huge. So really trying to drill down on those specifics.

7:49I know, uh, the CENTCOM commander has been given some, uh, real good, uh, um,

7:55sit reps. Uh, so that's a place I recommend people go and listen, because if

8:01you think from a military tactical perspective, uh, we are succeeding in, in our precision

8:08strikes and objectives. And so there, there is a positive aspect of that.

8:13Right. And so, uh, you know, and we're using B2 stealth bombers, F -35s were,

8:19you know, we're, we even launched a torpedo to sink the first time in a

8:23long time. We've done that, you know, day two, uh, you know, they talked about

8:29over 400 targets strike day two and three, um, you know, another thousand plus targets

8:37were struck. Um, and then there was some Iranian counterattacks that really began on U

8:43S bases, uh, in the Gulf and, and prompted defensive intercepts and retaliatory strikes.

8:50Um, March, uh, four or five days, five, six, right.

8:55We shifted to targeting Iran's defense industrial base, uh, conducted over 1700 sorties, uh, hitting

9:03about 1 ,250 targets. Uh, and these strikes included, uh, electronic warfare to disrupt the

9:10Iranian command, a surge in operations, along with, uh, the heavier use of gravity based

9:16munitions, right? These are not the laser guided precision strikes because, uh, one of the

9:22great things as a tactical commander, you want to make sure you don't blow your

9:28load, so to speak. And, and, and, and now all of a sudden those strategic

9:32munitions, you're empty. Um, and so it's critical to understand that if we can just

9:37drop, uh, gravity based munitions and have similar effects, then we've got much greater, uh,

9:43stockpiles of those types of munitions.

9:46Now day sevens and eight ongoing strikes, uh, against missile launchers, naval assets, and internal

9:52security sites, uh, uh, cumulative targets, roughly around 3000.

9:58Um, and one of the interesting things, which I confirm and agree with, with, uh,

10:04the secretary of war, Pete Hegseth, is that we have achieved air dominance, right?

10:09Enabling, uh, deeper strikes against infrastructure, uh, as well as, uh, Iranian naval capabilities are,

10:16are outright destroyed. Um, so that's pretty awesome.

10:20Now, the thing that I think about in terms of just strategic strikes, right, there's

10:27never been, um, a war won by simply using strategic strikes, right?

10:34Um, and in particular, as it relates to, uh, when, um, unconditional surrender is the

10:43expectation. And we do know Trump said that, and we'll have Jordy, uh, bring that,

10:47that clip up right now, uh, and show you what Trump said.

10:51Can you give us an idea?

10:52What unconditional surrender looks like to you?

10:55I mean, what do you want from Iran?

10:57I said unconditioned, not conditioned.

10:59I said unconditioned. It's where they cry uncle or when they can't fight any longer,

11:05there's nobody around to cry uncle.

11:07That could happen too, because, you know, we've wiped out their leadership numerous times already.

11:13So it's if they surrender or if there is nobody around to surrender, but they're

11:20rendered useless in terms of military.

11:22Now, after listening to Trump, you know, say that, it's really pretty amazing on what

11:32that means. And a lot, there's a lot of different pundits out there saying what

11:37that means in different capacities.

11:39But if you look at historically, when that comes out, what that means, that always

11:45leads to boots on the ground and not just a few, it means hundreds of

11:51thousands, potentially, and also hundreds of thousands of more civilians and women and children being

11:59annihilated as well too, right?

12:01The most famous unconditional surrender that was not adhered to, I believe, was the Japanese

12:09Imperial military back in World War II, which cost them two atomic bombs, which we

12:17were willing to do. You know, roughly 200 ,000 civilians were vaporized in that.

12:24Now, the response to that is it saved a million plus GIs, right?

12:29And by four years in, right, a conditioned population will say, all right, we don't

12:35care whatever it takes to bring this thing to the end.

12:39You know, the other aspect of unconditional surrender is the deeper impacts that it has

12:46on our military -industrial complex, right, and what that taxes.

12:51Now, it's critical for you to understand we have already been waging a four -year

12:55proxy war in Ukraine, right?

12:58And we have supplied a tremendous amount of munitions, intelligence support, training support, just a

13:08tremendous amount of resources has been during the Biden administration in order to support the

13:15Ukrainian effort against Russia. So we definitely have some strategic challenges, mostly, I believe, within

13:23our precision guided munitions. Now, we did see Trump bring in the military -industrial complex

13:33to the White House this week and basically said, you know, you guys got to

13:39start maintaining production. Jordy's going to put up a quote that came out as a

13:46result of that from Lockheed Martin, and they're going to quadruple output.

13:50Now, hopefully, what this will do is it will also open up for all these

13:55other smaller defense contractors that want to get in the game to help us build

14:00what? Disposable drones, right? Because when you take a step back, and I'm just going

14:06to go through some more statistics in terms of munitions here in a second, those

14:10are the ones that really become the high threat, and we've seen that both in

14:15Ukraine, and we're starting to see the remnants of it in Iran as well, too.

14:22So here's some of the estimated U .S.

14:24munitions, right? Missiles anywhere from 500 to 1 ,000 launched.

14:30Again, a massive guess. And by the way, when I use Grok to prompt to

14:35get these types of numbers and these back, I was understanding, right?

14:40And these are Tomahawk cruise missiles.

14:43They say up to 400 deployed air launch variation interceptors, right?

14:48The Patriot and the Thad.

14:50Those interceptors are incredibly expensive.

14:55Iranian used defensively against Iranian retaliation.

14:591 ,000 to 1 ,500 have been expended.

15:02Expected costing anywhere from $5 to $10 billion, okay?

15:07Sorties, over 2 ,000 combat sorties conducted with 1 ,700 in the first 72 to

15:1496 hours along. That involves 200 aircraft.

15:17Now, when you think about that, you have to think about aircraft parts.

15:20You have to think about fuel.

15:22You have to think about munitions dropped, right?

15:24And the cost hours on the engines, maintenance, all of this.

15:29All of these things have to be, we lost three F -15s over Kuwait on

15:35like day two or day three it was.

15:38And Geordi will show one of those falling out of the sky in some of

15:42the imagery of those pilots on the ground in Kuwait.

15:45So, how much does an F -15 cost, right?

15:49Luckily, we haven't lost any other major aircraft or ships whatsoever.

15:57All right. Bombs dropped somewhere between 2 ,000 and 4 ,000, including JDAM, precision guided

16:02missions, 500 to 2 ,000 bomb variants, right?

16:06And we're going to, as I said before, we're going to shift towards gravity -based

16:12bombs to save on our precision guided missiles.

16:16At least one confirmed torpedo.

16:19That was awesome. Um. uh drones uh we've launched again 200 to 500 one -way

16:25attack drones the mq -9 reapers used for strikes um you know defensive intercepts have

16:32gone against iranian droids some 1300 to 2000 now total cost of this right now

16:40and and it was funny i've made a post all right someone needs to start

16:45uh a a debt tracker for this war and the next thing i know i

16:52saw one pop up and that was yesterday uh and it had us at nine

16:58billion dollars already so rough estimates this is going to cost somewhere between seven to

17:03ten billion per day initially with tapering off to a billion uh with cumulative 50

17:10to 70 billion dollars in expenditure by march set anywhere uh by by uh end

17:18of march okay so why is it critical well guess what if we don't have

17:25the precision guided munitions to support our own efforts right and we get depleted how

17:30does that help us in the potential if china decides to take down taiwan because

17:35we're preoccupied by this what if russia launched a more aggravated assault against kiev kiev

17:41or starts upping their uh precision you know missile or really starts to take out

17:47ukrainian forces or iran continues to launch its drone attacks against further gulf states which

17:54uh again as i said in the beginning the president uh just came out today

17:58i saw someone post that the president of iran has said we apologize for gulf

18:03states getting hit i think he's probably trying to hedge his bet right now and

18:07because he knows that the gulf states are frustrated uh there and one of the

18:12ones that really popped for me was recently a a billionaire from the region got

18:18up and said hey listen uh this is bad and so george george is going

18:23to post that right now for us and then also the the president of uae

18:28got up and made a statement uh that was pretty uh pretty enlightening as to

18:35hey listen this is not what we intended we asked for we need to uh

18:41really come together as a group of gulf states and say hey what's the plan

18:46here what are our vulnerabilities because um just uh today early morning when i got

18:52up from last night's strikes they're really israel's really starting to target iran's oil production

18:58facilities and their refinement capabilities and all that and i'll get into the political ramifications

19:03here in a second so um you also got to understand are the targets in

19:08saudi arabia are they vulnerable they have major uh production facilities all over there's all

19:15the other gulf states are vulnerable as well too uh you've got desalinization plants along

19:22the coast which most of the gulf coast uh states use desalinization to be able

19:28to bring fresh water to their populations what if those get attacked and now all

19:33of a sudden you have these populations that are vulnerable um and so i would

19:39imagine right now that many of the gulf state ambassadors or gulf state leaders are

19:45are trying to get into trump uh to have sit downs and say hey listen

19:50we just committed a profound amount of money uh to you and your efforts to

19:56re -industrialize america to produce new chip manufacturers which ultimately go where in these missile

20:02systems in these uh uh one -way drone systems right so if the middle east

20:08is going to finance our re -industrialization of our chip development and then all of

20:13a sudden they pull their money and then we can't uh uh enhance or deliver

20:19on chip production to fulfill the munitions depletion you know you have to think about

20:25the ramifications on our operational abilities in there right all right um obviously uh damage

20:32to uh iranian targets has been overwhelming um you can just like i said go

20:39and listen to some of the cent comms uh there's an admiral's been getting up

20:43and and and given some pretty outstanding brief uh sit rep briefings on on damage

20:49and what's taking place um you know i looked up and saw what the israel

20:55israel um uh productive uh uh strikes were um you know on february 28th uh

21:03they were claiming their strike was the one who uh uh killed the ayatollah komemi

21:08um and then other infrastructure um with 26 waves of attacks in 24 hours um

21:15they've also had uh hundreds of missiles launched uh and struck about 1200 munitions dropped

21:22day two day march four five strikes on industrial and security bases 4 000 total

21:29munitions march 6 7 uh continued waves of missile strikes against irgc bases um estimates

21:36a total estimates any between 180 80 and 100 aircraft were used hundreds of targets

21:42per day uh to really focus on missile degradation right because of what happens if

21:48they were used to be used to be used to be used to be used

21:48to be used to be used to be used to be used to be used

21:48to be used to be used to be used to be used I don't know.

21:48Don't focus their Iranian missiles, which we've seen have have launched extensive strikes into Israel,

21:55in many cases, overwhelming some of the Israeli dome abilities.

22:02Right. I saw one Geordi show the one image.

22:07There was an Iranian missile that came over and then split into these cluster distribution

22:12missiles. And when you look at that, it's like, oh, my God, that's pretty, pretty

22:17intense with what's going on there.

22:20Saying all that to say this about military again, I have to reaffirm when you

22:26look at a strategic concept.

22:28And don't get me wrong.

22:30There are plenty of people in the Trump administration, at the Pentagon, at the agency

22:36that, you know, are still veterans of the GWAT.

22:39Right. There's plenty of guys that understand the complexities of waging a long term war

22:47on the ground against even a non militarily superior adversary.

22:54Right. Just with insurgent insurgencies, guerrilla warfare, fighting all that.

23:00But if you're going to get a comprehensive regime change, which is to topple the

23:05government and instill someone else, you know, you most likely you're going to have to

23:11grab hold of certain large populations or population cities and be able to install or

23:19allow someone to go in.

23:20And my funniest one, again, the 60 minute interview with the son of the Shah,

23:27who's been sitting in England and D .C.

23:30for the last 40 years, who's never run anything in your life.

23:33He said, I'll accept the call from the Iranian people.

23:36I want to know which people have called them into action.

23:39Are you saying in this interview that you wouldn't lead Iran?

23:43That's a different thing. They trust me as a transitional leader, not as the future

23:48king or future president or future whatever.

23:52I'm totally focused on my mission in life, which is let me bring the country

23:56to a point that they can make that free choice.

23:58That will be enough for me having said mission accomplished.

24:00I don't know anybody that would want that guy to run to take over.

24:05So, again, we come back to the fact of what is going to happen.

24:10How are we going to get in and maintain control?

24:13So someone, preferably some anti -government Iranian person that has some underground resistance or whatever,

24:22that can move in. And what we seem to be hearing from Bibi and other

24:28political leaders around the world is that, or not around the world, but in Israel

24:32specifically, as well as some in America.

24:36They want the supposed uprising that we saw several months ago to facilitate into the

24:44ability to take over the country.

24:45But if you know anything about civil wars, they're very messy, they're very difficult.

24:54So it requires getting weapons systems, intelligence, a whole slew of tactical realities need to

25:02be integrated into this shift in the power dynamic that's taking place internally in Iran.

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25:39Terms and conditions apply. This is Bethany Frankel from Just Be With Bethany Frankel.

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28:31That's Redfin .com. Now, one of the things that broke in the news is that

28:37there's talk of using Kurdish fighters to help facilitate the overthrow or the uprising or

28:48whatever it might be. And then they could go in, initiate, you know, start probing

28:55Iranian defenses, see what's going on.

28:59And then somehow we could support them either using CIA assets or using military assets

29:06or whatever it might be.

29:09We can help facilitate their ground game.

29:12All right. There's a couple different of these groups.

29:15All right. The CIA is reportedly working and providing weapons, including small arms to Iranian

29:21Kurdish factions, such as the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan, the KDPI, the Kurdistan Freedom

29:29Party, the PAK, and underneath the coalition of political forces of Iranian Kurdistan, the CPFIK.

29:38Again, that's three factions of Kurds.

29:40Now, I'm sure each faction wants to be the man.

29:44And so they're going to start to jockey to see who gets the rain control.

29:49So when you use these types of external forces, a lot of times it doesn't

29:53always go the way you want it.

29:55Trust me from personal experience.

29:58All right. Operational objectives, right?

30:01Again, like I said, we're going to use these forces.

30:04They're going to go begin to probe, disrupt, and then our satellite imagery, our ability

30:09to collect intelligence on the ground, we can get a better assessment of what might

30:13come next in terms of upgrading to where we have to use American troops on

30:21the ground to help facilitate this.

30:23And obviously, Israeli troops would have to support us as well, too.

30:29Now, timeline and scale. Again, this is the hardest part about the whole thing is

30:34our battle damage assessments, we really, we don't generally know what's going on.

30:40Have we seen a reduction in Iranian capabilities 100%.

30:45But we also know that Iran has been in production of somewhere between 500 and

30:511000 of these, you know, $50 ,000 drones they make one way drones that are

30:57pretty good tactical in terms of their ability to execute on targets.

31:02We have no idea what the total counts on are those are now there's estimates.

31:08And again, you're going to get an estimate.

31:10They've got between 13 ,000 and 18 ,000.

31:14Well, that's a big range of big difference.

31:16So until we get that hard intel, it's very difficult how to direct these ground

31:22forces, these guerrilla ground forces against or even if we step up and we start,

31:27because I'm sure there's some people both at the Pentagon, JSOC and other places like,

31:33let's put in JSOC units, let's put in ground branch units, let's put in, let's

31:39start getting on the ground to get a better assessment.

31:42Because, listen, if you're an operator, you want to, you want to go operate, you

31:47want to see what you can do.

31:49And this is one of the most complex scenarios that I've ever seen us have

31:53to face since, geez, I would even say going back to Korea, because the sheer

31:59magnitude of Chinese forces, they fed, they had these endless waves of people.

32:03All right. Now, here's the other problem that you have to be understand, right?

32:08There is a historical reality to our relationship with the Kurds, you know, and we've

32:15supported them in different things, right?

32:19The U .S. alongside Iran and Israel covertly armed Iraqi Kurds back in the 1970s,

32:26led by Mustafa Bazini with Soviet weapons via the CIA to weaken Saddam Hussein's regime

32:33to counter Soviet influence. All right.

32:35You heard what I said.

32:36In the 70s, we worked with Iran and the Kurds to go after Saddam Hussein.

32:43In 1991, the Gulf War aftermath, we encouraged Iraqi Kurds and Shia to rise against

32:51Saddam Hussein post -desert storm.

32:54However, the initial action allowed Iraqi forces to crush uprising, killing tens of thousands of

33:02Kurds. U .S. Special Forces later provided humanitarian aid to the decimated Kurdish forces.

33:102003, Iraqi invasion. CIA and U .S.

33:15Special Forces collaborated with Iraqi Kurdish regimes, the Kurdish Peshmerga, Northern Iraq, to open up

33:22a second front against Saddam.

33:24And they provided us intelligence, ground support, and help, key cities like Kirkuk and Mosul.

33:29Fast forward in the 2014 -19 campaign against ISIS, which is just go down the

33:39rabbit hole of how ISIS got its start.

33:42The U .S. partnered with Iraqi Peshmerga and Syrian Kurdish YPG as part of the

33:48Syrian Democratic Forces, the SDF, to combat ISIS, receive arms training and support.

33:55Wait, well, guess what? Well, over 11 ,000 Kurdish forces died.

34:03And the withdrawal from the U .S.

34:05and northeast and Syria allowed Turkish incursion, seeing all other.

34:09Because the Turks hate the Kurds and have been fighting the Kurds as well, too.

34:13The Turks fight the Kurds.

34:14The Iraqis fight the Kurds.

34:15The Iranians fight the Kurds.

34:17The Syrians fight the Kurds.

34:19And we always partner with them to help facilitate our little covert clandestine operations.

34:26And at the outcome, the Kurds end up usually taking heavies.

34:30So, do I have a lot of hopes that the Kurds are going to get

34:37on board with us? No, I don't.

34:41So, do I really believe that's possible?

34:43I don't know. I also know that if you give people gigantic pallets of cash

34:49or big gigantic bags of cash and weapons and munitions, you might get a couple

34:55thousand that will go wreak a little havoc for you.

35:00But then again, they'll also go bomb some innocent people and say, hey, look, we

35:05just bombed. Give us another $10 million.

35:07We'll go bomb the next city and the next city.

35:10And next thing you know, we're spending ungodly amounts of money with these rebel forces

35:15that really aren't having any effect.

35:17We're just draining our accounts and burning other political bridges.

35:21All right. We do know that Iran has, from their military perspectives, has been successful,

35:28right? They have been disrupting many different things, all right?

35:32The number one thing, they have been killing people in Israel.

35:35We know that's a fact.

35:37But they've also been striking all a bunch of other places, right?

35:41And I just want to go down the list of all the different places.

35:45So Azerbaijan was struck, two drone -struck Azeri military position, Bahrain, right?

35:54Homeland of the U .S.

35:555th Fleet, the U .S.

35:56Naval Headquarters, airports, military airfields, Iraq, right?

36:02Strikes on U .S. bases near Erbil, causing explosions.

36:06Kurdish forces, drone and missile hits on pro -Kurdish positions, killing several fighters, damaging more.

36:12Israel, as I said, ballistic missile strike near Jerusalem, damage on Iron Dome battery.

36:209 to 11 Israelis are killed.

36:23Command centers hit in Tel Aviv and Haifa.

36:26Jordan, Jordan was hit. Missile debris struck near Muwafik.

36:32I don't know how to say that.

36:35Salty Air Base. Kuwait was struck.

36:38Oman was struck. Qatar was struck.

36:41Saudi Arabia was struck. Syria was struck.

36:44The UAE was struck. All right.

36:48Overall impacts of Iranian strikes.

36:52Now, again, here's rough numbers.

36:53Roughly between 100 and 200 casualties, mostly civilians from debris and proximity.

36:59Far less than U .S.-Israel operations, which we estimate somewhere around 1 ,200 Iranian deaths.

37:07So, yes, has there been collateral damage on the ground?

37:14100 % there has. Is there potential for increased collateral damage?

37:19Yeah, there is. Because, again, I go back to the fact, yeah, we've seen a

37:23massive degradation in Iranian capability.

37:26But if you were preparing with the inevitable reality that after the strike this past

37:32summer, would you just get all your stuff and get out in the open and

37:37be susceptible to strikes? No.

37:39Everything that all of our enemy have learned over the last 70 years is that

37:50you take the first wave, sit back, let America gain confidence, let us gain confidence,

37:59let us make some moves, think about what we're going to do.

38:02And then you start, you know, random strikes, you start probing hard and soft targets.

38:11That's what I believe is taking place now.

38:14Again, I go back, how many of these unmanned kamikaze drones does Iran have?

38:20And they're pretty easy. We've seen them deployed in many different war zones in Ukraine

38:26and now in the Middle East on how this works.

38:29And so I believe we've only yet begun to see.

38:34I mean, there was recently a post I saw a video of the Doha airport

38:41being struck or was it I think it was in the Dubai International Airport was

38:47struck. Now, when Dubai is getting struck, you know, that's going to, again, piss off

38:52these Gulf states who said we didn't agree to this thing.

38:56Like you just went ahead and did it.

38:58And so I would imagine the people who are in power and in the White

39:06House and in that inner circle, they're starting to put pressure on, I would imagine,

39:12on the president and some of his cabinet saying, OK, what are the next steps?

39:17Because what we don't want to lose is that all the work that we had

39:21conducted from the original what Abrahamic Accords in his first term.

39:27Remember, that was the defining political victory of Trump's first term was the Abrahamic Accords.

39:35And that was destabilizing the conflict between Israel and those Gulf states to what?

39:43To open up investment and trade, right, to restructure those dynamics.

39:50Well, if that fractures, we're going to see it and it's going to happen quickly.

39:55Why? Well, obviously, vulnerabilities to their populations, right?

40:04Populations will only take so much.

40:07And trust me when I tell you, it's not like these populations in the Gulf

40:13states have a profound love for America, for Americans, right?

40:18As we I rightfully agree that Iran has no love loss for America, death to

40:24America for for since the Islamic Revolution.

40:27I get it. And yes, there have been plenty of Americans that have suffered, including

40:33my comrades during the GWAT.

40:36Roughly some 600 plus people were killed by Iranian Kurdish IEDs and VBIDs and that

40:45type of thing in Iraq.

40:47So, yeah, we also had the bombing in Lebanon through proxies and proxies waging that

40:53constant war against American presence in the Middle East.

41:02Again, you have to put this in reality in context, right?

41:06Don't be naive. If someone were to come and camp out in your backyard, you're

41:13going to get pissed. So we essentially have been camped out in the Middle East,

41:18not just since the 2000s, not just since the 1990s or the 1970s or the

41:241960s, but all the way back from when we first discovered the massive quantities of

41:32what crude oil that exists in the Middle East and then liquid natural natural gas.

41:37So we have a significant presence.

41:41And even, you know, before us, it was the British, the French, and they had

41:46carved up the region and occupied that region for a very long period of time.

41:51So think about that. Think about if we had had other countries, more like, let's

41:58call it Russia, back in the day, you know, during the Soviet Union, had somehow

42:03finagled the way, split up, and been able to come into the United States, camp

42:07out, and pull out our natural resources.

42:11You'd be pissed. So you have to understand that that's a reality.

42:17You also have to understand that these people's culture is not some new culture right

42:23out of the gate, right?

42:26These are cultures. If you think about the Persian culture, right, this is the longest

42:34continuous culture in the world.

42:36Some people might argue that Chinese culture is older, but certainly we know, you know,

42:42Persia and Persians have been a consolidated functioning society for what, 7 ,000, 8 ,000

42:51years, something crazy like that.

42:53So to imagine somehow miraculously, because of the Internet, they want to become Western societies,

43:01you're lying to yourself. Now, a big argument I'm hearing is that, hey, this is

43:08worth it because they're an existential threat.

43:11We've got to get rid of them.

43:12We've got to do that.

43:13Okay, great. If you believe that, you can prove it to me and show me

43:18what they're doing other than these proxy limited attacks.

43:22You want to say limited because it's not like they have killed 500 ,000 people

43:30like fentanyl has in the United States, right?

43:33Then you have to start to gauge the reality of your estimations, right?

43:38These people do not want to be democratic.

43:42They do not want to be Americans.

43:44They certainly don't want to be Israeli, and they certainly don't want to be Jewish,

43:49right, or Christian. And again, there is a framework of this in certain people's eyes

43:55that this, for most, is a religious war in nature, all right?

44:02And if you look at, all you got to do is just spend some time

44:05looking at what the Ayatollahs are talking about, the Shias, look at what the Mullahs

44:13are talking about, look at what the rabbis are talking about, look at what the

44:16pastors and the preachers are saying, and there is a ton of that talk going

44:20on, right? I'm not going to go down that game because I'm just trying to

44:23stay in something that's palatable and contextual for you to get a better understanding.

44:29All right, so this is a numbers game with munition, right?

44:34And don't forget the expenditures from Ukraine, right?

44:38It's a numbers game for what the military industrial complex can start producing, right?

44:43It's a numbers game with costs, right?

44:47It's a numbers game with friendly assets getting attacked in the Gulf states, right?

44:55How many will happen before they completely turn against us?

44:58It's a numbers game with world opinion of us and other countries.

45:06There's already multiple countries that have chastised the United States.

45:11Now, here's the other little tidbit in terms of numbers game too.

45:15You want to assess militarily, and then I'm going to move on to economics.

45:20And I've been going for a long time.

45:22So, the last big thing is, do you believe that Russia and China are going

45:30to get involved as they see an opportunity to do what we've been doing in

45:36Ukraine to us in Iran?

45:41It's a simple question. If you answer no, then I think you should just go

45:48back to scrolling your feed and liking, you know, the latest, you know, new band

45:55or supplement or whatever is out there, all right?

45:57You know, keeping your feet and keep your head down because that's exactly what's going

46:02on. Obviously, you know, there's been a bunch of reports about Russia and China helping

46:10with intelligence and targeting systems to be more strategic on vulnerabilities that we have in

46:16the region. So, now you've got what?

46:20All these different countries that have been struck, all their infrastructure at Jeopardy, right?

46:27You've got now all three of the major superpowers, right, integrating.

46:32Oh, and the other thing militarily that I just want to say is now you've

46:36got Israel strike in Lebanon as well too.

46:39So, now you've got Syria in that area that's getting fired up.

46:43And guess who runs Syria, a former Al -Qaeda member, right?

46:48They're itching to get in this fight, I bet, as well too.

46:50And all you've got to do is listen to some of the things that are

46:52coming out of their post online, right?

46:54So, now what do you have?

46:57You have a regional, multinational, multi -superpower potential war that is brewing, okay?

47:06So, that's a reality. I'm not making that up.

47:10So, that's pretty – all it is is taking a look at the 40 ,000

47:14foot of what the ramifications might be.

47:16All right. I'm going to go through – obviously, I didn't talk a lot about

47:23the European Union and what's going on.

47:25I think they have a major stake in this for economic reasons, for sure, in

47:30terms of oil. We know they're all struggling with energy costs.

47:34The head of NATO, Mark Root, came out and said he condemns Iran's escalation, which

47:40I thought was funny. What else are they supposed to do?

47:42What did you think they were going to do type of thing?

47:43But then again, remember, he wants – he's going to support us because he wants

47:47to keep waging war, proxy war against Russia.

47:50That will benefit the European Union.

47:52All right. But we really haven't seen any significant commitments from countries that have legitimate

48:00military support other than they're going to help let us use some of their bases.

48:05There is some talk about some British fleet helping us escort oil ships in and

48:12around the Straits of Hormuz, but not much else.

48:17The other thing that I found really fascinating is there's been several countries who have

48:21now come out and said we're going to increase our nuclear development capabilities.

48:27And then new countries have said we are going to begin a nuclear program.

48:31So the irony of this whole thing that this was all sold to the American

48:36populace in the world, we are going to destroy Iranians' nuclear capability is actually intensifying

48:44nuclear requirements for other people, right?

48:48They're saying, hey, no, this is – now we're in another level.

48:51We need to protect ourselves.

48:53We're going to start nuclear programs, right?

48:57Taking the caps off development.

48:59We need more bombs. So that's also – all right.

49:02That's the last thing, economic impacts.

49:04So the – Overwhelming economic reality that we have to pay attention to is crude

49:11oil and LNG distribution around the world.

49:14Now, all passage of the Straits of Hormuz has been reduced to almost nothing, right?

49:24I saw one ship made the run through it the other day.

49:27They were tracking it, and there was someone, see if you can find that, the

49:30one ship. So whoever labeled it gave it some hilarious label.

49:35That was kind of interesting.

49:37They went Leroy Jenkins on getting through the Straits of Hormuz, which I, Leroy Jenkins.

49:45If you don't know, that's an obscure comment from the GWAT, which is hilarious.

49:48We used to say that on targets when there was no plan.

49:51We're just going to go Leroy Jenkins.

49:53So let's do this, Leroy Jenkins.

49:58Oh, my God, he just ran in.

50:00Anyways, that was an inside joke you didn't understand.

50:04So think about this, right?

50:08It's going to affect energy markets and control of the Straits of Hormuz, through which

50:14about 20 % of global oil and 15 % to 20 % of liquefied national

50:19gas transits. All right? What we're going to see is energy markets are going to

50:27be affected first, right? Bent crude surged 10 % to 15 % from around $70

50:34to $75 per barrel pre -war to 82 to 93 by March 7, with peaks

50:42over 90. The Straits has disruption has removed 20 million barrels per day, equivalent to

50:5220 % of global supply.

50:54The closure persists beyond 30 days.

50:57Prices could hit, and again, these are all guesses, 100, which would be creeping into

51:06a recession, to $200 per barrel, which is a guaranteed recession.

51:13Now, let me get to that recession component.

51:16Now, when you think about the reduction and you think about what this means, you

51:24really have to begin to understand all the Gulf states and how their economies work

51:29based on that ability to get through the Straits of Hormuz, right?

51:34All those Gulf states, and they supply India, they supply Pakistan, they supply China, they

51:42supply Japan, all international, Korea, South Korea, Taiwan, Seoul.

51:51All these trading partners with us, Australia, all these manufacturing buildings, their energy output, that's

52:00going to impact their global, their GDP, the global economy, right?

52:06Now, America, we're doing good because we've got our own natural productions, but certainly EU,

52:14India, China, and a lot of other people.

52:17So what happens if China starts paying more costs to be able to put our

52:21goods that we have an insatiable appetite for on ships to drive them over to

52:26the United States? Guess what?

52:28Your costs are going up, right?

52:31Which probably has a direct correlation to inflation probably going up.

52:35Less goods and service because there's less oil flow.

52:38It's harder to get stuff over, out of transport.

52:40And then cost of transport goes up.

52:42And then guess what? The companies are not going to eat those costs.

52:47They're going to put them on you.

52:48All right. As I said, higher energy costs are increasing transportation and manufacturing expenses, potentially

52:57adding, it says, 0 .6, 0 .7 percentage points to global inflation for every sustained

53:04$10 to $20 rise in oil prices, right?

53:08So let's say we get to $180 per barrel from where we're at today, which

53:13is, let's call it $80, right?

53:16That's a pretty significant increase to inflationary and GDP spending, right?

53:22All right. How does it affect global markets, all right, and investor sentiment?

53:27All right. Stock market, global equities lost $3 .2 trillion in value in the first

53:34four days. Now, again, we're not seeing a lot of challenges.

53:40We're not seeing a lot of companies collapse or lose.

53:44But $3 .2 trillion in market valuation, that's significant.

53:50That's significant, right? And so what happens when people start to realize that there's a

53:56potential negative outcome on their portfolios?

54:00What? They're going to look to liquefy, right?

54:03They're going to look to get cash, right?

54:06Now, a lot of people will try and put money in currencies, and definitely this

54:11will strengthen the dollar, right?

54:13The positive in any of these types of things is that our currency strengthens in

54:17terms of also having as the benchmark currency of the world.

54:22That's good. That's positive for us.

54:26And then on the other side of that, the Federal Reserve is probably going to

54:30delay those rate cuts that were planned.

54:33I want to sweeten. I want to sweeten.

54:34up here in a little bit, right, leading to higher borrowing costs.

54:38And $100 oil price could drag U .S.

54:41GDP by 0 .3 percentage points.

54:44Now, you hear 0 .3 and like, whatever, no big deal.

54:47But remember, this is accumulating effect and it doesn't stay, the aggregate doesn't stay at

54:54one singular, it intensifies and exponentially grows as all the other problems start impacting it,

55:01right? Right. Inflation growth, recession risk.

55:04All right. Inflation. Global projections now include a 0 .5 to 1 % uptick if

55:09energy prices stay elevated, with foods and good prices raising due to higher transport costs.

55:15U .S. gasoline hit $3 .32 per gallon, up from $2 .99, and diesel exceeded

55:21$4. You know, growth is already slow, but this is definitely going to slow it

55:28down more. And then also, if this becomes somewhere between a $50 and $100 billion

55:35cost to expenditure for this, it's also going to put deeper fears into global markets,

55:44right, and into our market as well, too.

55:48Obviously, shipping costs are going to go through the roof.

55:52Aviation, tourism is going to decline in all these places.

55:56Manufacturing and supply chains are going to be affected dramatically, which all have, what, cascading

56:01impacts on the global economy.

56:05Now, in terms of our own oil production, you know, we still are producing a

56:11tremendous amount. We also have our new relationships with Venezuela.

56:15So we seem to be somewhat insulated.

56:17Now, Europe is going to have definitely higher energy costs, right, and probably going to

56:23have to start purchasing, openly purchasing oil from who again?

56:27You guessed it, Russia, thereby intensifying and supporting Russia's efforts to bring down the Ukrainian

56:33efforts against it. Obviously, the Asian markets are completely dependent upon this oil.

56:41So their economies are going to be affected as well, too.

56:44All right. The one thing I thought was interesting, and I don't know if you

56:48saw this, Jordy, but there was another little thing that came out in terms of

56:52private equity. Last week, as of March 26, the war, the private credit sector, BlackRock,

57:03the world's largest asset manager, announced restrictions on withdrawals from one of its flagship funds,

57:10right? And this was it, right?

57:13This is limiting withdrawals from the HPS corporate lending fund.

57:18And the fund is H -L -E -N -D, if you look at on the

57:22index right out there. So this was announced March 6.

57:26Now, BlackRock disclosed that $26 billion in HPS corporate lending fire acquired as part of

57:33its push to private credit received redemption requests.

57:37That means people wanted to pull money out of it.

57:40At $1 .2 billion in the first quarter of 26, represented about 9 .3 of

57:46the fund's net asset value.

57:48However, the fund enforced its standard 5 % quarterly redemption cap, paying out only $620

57:57million to investments. This left some requests unmet.

58:00All right, now their rationale of this, the decision was framed as a protective measure

58:05to maintain the fund's stability as private credit funds are designed as semi -liquid vehicles

58:11with built -in limits to avoid fire sales of assets during stress periods.

58:17BlackRock emphasized that this was a feature of a product and not as a flex

58:24to freak out from people, hey, we're shutting down your ability to withdraw your investment.

58:31This also affected Blackstone. They put some restrictions on some of theirs as well too.

58:39You know, their shares took a pretty significant beating as a result of this at

58:447 .2 % on Mark 6, closing at $955 .45 per share.

58:54So they're sitting pretty good because of their net assets.

58:57But I found, right, it was interesting because if private equity is hit, right, in

59:05a very significant chance, right, because under these high stress periods, banks really shut down

59:12lending because they want to make sure they protect their assets as, you know, all

59:17the chaos is taking place in the market, volatility increases.

59:22So if that private equity frees up, which supplies what?

59:26Most of our small businesses out there, new development, new venture, a lot of that

59:32comes from private equity, people being able to sell their companies and retire or whatever

59:36it might be. So if there's a scare in private equity, that also can have

59:40profound long -term ramifications. And maybe we'll go find Bryce Geordi and bring him on

59:45to see his thoughts on what the ramifications for this.

59:49Bring him back. We need him.

59:50Yeah, for sure. All right.

59:53So, you know, one of the things that from an economic perspective is obviously it'd

1:00:01be... Good time to maybe shift some efforts out of some of the tech, top

1:00:06tech seven, the magnificent seven, which is, you know, have a really bizarre weight in

1:00:10the markets right now. Maybe shift those over to some energy companies right now, especially

1:00:20American energy companies, American industrialization companies, building, manufacturing, the defense industry, obviously.

1:00:27So just be heads up that, you know, this is going to disrupt some of

1:00:31the things out there, in particular gas prices at the most.

1:00:36Now, does it lead to a recession?

1:00:38I don't know. It sure feels like that's a potential.

1:00:43I know there's the head economist who works with Bryce has been calling for bear

1:00:49markets in a recession for quite a few quarters now.

1:00:52Now, this could be the thing that definitely tips us into that and recessions under

1:00:58these contexts have a tendency to last a little bit longer than typical recessions.

1:01:04Right. All right. Last one.

1:01:06And I'll go quick on this because you're probably burnt out from all of that

1:01:10information. I just again, I want you to realize that it's clear to understand information.

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1:08:08Thanks for listening to that.

1:08:10I'm stoked you enjoyed that.

1:08:12But let's get back to the political ramifications for Trump and the political benefits for

1:08:20the Democratic Party. All right.

1:08:23So unless you live under a rock, you are not familiar with massive challenges going

1:08:30within the MAGA movement. There seems to be a split.

1:08:33Some are calling MAGA dead.

1:08:37There's a lot of people are saying it's MAGA.

1:08:41People are now kind of describing themselves as America first, as opposed to MAGA, which

1:08:49is interesting. And a lot of that is a derivative of what?

1:08:54The promises that the Trump party made or Trump himself very much made along the

1:09:03lines. Now, I have gone back and seen some ideas.

1:09:06There was a video from Trump way back in the day giving his thoughts on

1:09:12Iran. And maybe, Jordy, we could we could play that for you.

1:09:17The the Iranian situation is a case in point that they hold our hostages is

1:09:23just absolutely and totally ridiculous that this country sits back and allows a country such

1:09:31as Iran to hold our hostages to my way of thinking is a horror.

1:09:36And I don't think they'd do it with other countries.

1:09:39I honestly don't think they'd do it with other countries.

1:09:42Obviously, you're advocating that we should have gone in there with troops, etc.

1:09:46and brought our boys out.

1:09:47I absolutely feel that. Yes, I don't think there's any question.

1:09:50And there's no question in my mind.

1:09:52I think right now would be an oil rich nation.

1:09:55And I believe that we should have done it.

1:09:57And I'm very disappointed that we didn't do it.

1:09:59And I don't think anybody would have held us in abeyance.

1:10:03I don't think anybody would have been angry with us.

1:10:05And we had every right to do it at the time.

1:10:08OK, so obviously, you know, Trump has has had opinions about Iran for long periods

1:10:14of time. And maybe those have shifted based on intelligence he's known.

1:10:19But what we do know is that he was going to profess as the no

1:10:24new wars president. Now, he likes to say he stopped eight wars.

1:10:30But the war we really wanted him to stop, obviously, was the war in Ukraine,

1:10:36which has not happened. So if it were me, I'd be analyzing how what went

1:10:43wrong there. And then now, after, you know, he's had multiple series of negotiations with

1:10:50Iran that have not brought anything to fruition.

1:10:53And now we're in the second campaign against Iran with some people.

1:10:57Well, including Trump calling for unconditional surrender on what the ramifications that means.

1:11:02So obviously, there are going to be many people, mostly people who feel slighted on

1:11:08the Iraq war, as the lie that was told, the ridiculous extension of Afghanistan and

1:11:16the pullout there. Obviously, the clandestine war we waged in Syria, as well as some

1:11:23of these other places around that area and region of the world.

1:11:29So he has to start figuring out what his narrative is going to be, because

1:11:34if you look at this quote from Rubio about why we struck first and how,

1:11:45I think it's pretty telling there that there is a distinct coordination with our Israeli

1:11:53allies as to the effects of this.

1:11:56And so the president made the very wise decision.

1:11:58We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action.

1:12:01We knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces.

1:12:04And we knew that if we didn't preemptively go after them before they launched those

1:12:08attacks, we would suffer higher casualties and perhaps even higher those killed.

1:12:12And then we would all be here answering questions about why we knew that indeed.

1:12:15Now, I haven't really gone through enough analysis of people who really understand Israel's current

1:12:28position and what their intentions are in this.

1:12:32Obviously, we know they believe that Iran is an existential threat, and I believe that

1:12:36too. If I were Israel and lived in Israel, man, if I had the opportunity

1:12:41to engage this, I sure would as well too.

1:12:44But I don't think there's any illusion that Israel can successfully complete the task of

1:12:55wiping out the complete Iranian regime and its effort and its hatred towards Israel.

1:13:01So they definitely need us.

1:13:04What I would like to see is a better description of what's going on.

1:13:09I'd like to see a consolidated messaging coming out of the Trump cabinet and what's

1:13:17going on. Now, it certainly didn't help that Kristi Noem was fired recently for some

1:13:21of her boondoggles. That basically destabilized it as well too.

1:13:25It also doesn't help that a lot of these negotiations are not going according to

1:13:31plan, and it doesn't help that the Gulf states are becoming very vocal about their

1:13:36desire to end this immediately and the rumblings that they're going to pull out any

1:13:43economic support for the reindustrialization of America.

1:13:46So there's some massive political ramifications internationally, as we already know.

1:13:52But internally, what I think it does for sure, after the challenge that the Trump

1:13:59administration faced in Minnesota with the ICE raids and the ICE things and the two

1:14:04Americans getting shot, there was a backlash of all of this.

1:14:08And so people were getting upset, and so he tapered down, and Tom Holden started

1:14:15working with Minnesota government officials.

1:14:17Obviously, Tim Waltz is getting pounded.

1:14:20If you saw him recently in Congress and his deposition, I mean, it was pathetic,

1:14:25fraud everywhere around. He had no answers.

1:14:27Yeah, for sure. But there also seems to be some fracture internal in the Trump

1:14:32organization as well. So what could benefit the Democrats?

1:14:38Obviously, you know, there is a massive challenge, obviously, in the upcoming midterms, right?

1:14:50And the midterms, you have to understand it like this, right?

1:14:55So in the November midterms, Republicans already, we maintain a narrow control, both the chamber

1:15:02of Congress, right? That's the House and the Senate, because of our gains in 24,

1:15:07with a 53 -45 majority in the Senate, two independents causing, usually caucusing with Democrats,

1:15:15effectively giving Democrats 47 votes, right?

1:15:18And a slim majority, 218 to 214 in the House.

1:15:22Now, this gives us some leverage, not great leverage, because obviously, when we think about

1:15:27a lot of the codification of Doge, we think about a lot of the things

1:15:34to be able to secure our elections, the SAVE Act.

1:15:36But there's a stalemate going on, there's a pushback, you know, and I think that's

1:15:41coming from the Republican side and the rhinos that are entrenched, who have a true

1:15:46disdain for Trump anyways, like Mitch McConnell, Corrin from Texas, who's in the fight of

1:15:52his life with Paxton right now.

1:15:54And hopefully, Paxton ekes that out.

1:15:58Now, in the House, you got to realize that there is, you know, the midterms

1:16:05where all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are up for grabs.

1:16:11All right, three Democrats aim to flip at least three House districts and four Senate

1:16:16seats to regain majorities, potentially creating a check on Trump's power.

1:16:20What happens if that happens?

1:16:24We go into the - ultimate lame duck, right?

1:16:28And what begins? Certainly, they're going to impeach him.

1:16:32Certainly, they're going to disrupt all investigations because they'll gain control of these committees, right?

1:16:39So that no more, no more investigations.

1:16:40So to get to the bottom of Russiagate, to get to the bottom of COVID,

1:16:45to get to the bottom of all these things that basically grinds to a halt,

1:16:49thereby attacking once again, one other more giant strategic act of draining the swamp that

1:16:56Trump ran on. So the midterms are in play at a substantial way.

1:17:05All right. So how does that affect Trump in the MAGA base?

1:17:11All these congressmen and senators that need Trump's support.

1:17:16Well, if he's in a political quagmire himself, will his support have any meaning to

1:17:23these people who are running in these very contested races.

1:17:27And so we have to start.

1:17:29We've been trying to bring some lower level political people running on just to get

1:17:34a sense of what they're seeing on the local level and these state runs and

1:17:39what's going on. And there's definitely some consternation in their campaigns based on what's going

1:17:48on around in the system right now.

1:17:51Now, the Democratic Party, if I were you, I would just sit back and let

1:17:57this thing unfold, right? Yeah.

1:17:59Make your little comments here and there.

1:18:01Do your little push those punches.

1:18:04You know, you're going to hear a tremendous amount from the Democrats.

1:18:07He has no plan. They have no plan.

1:18:09They don't know what they're doing.

1:18:10This is causing havoc. But then you're also, where you're going to see, is you're

1:18:14going to see all those NGOs that we've discovered that are funding these other campaigns,

1:18:20the anti -ice raids, the anti -war movement, the anti -Wall Street, all this stuff.

1:18:27They're going to flood those people starting here, probably this month, the end of the

1:18:33month and the next. You will see a political firestorm to the likes which you

1:18:39will have never seen domestically in this country.

1:18:42Mark my words. Why? Because if you can prove that Trump doesn't have control of

1:18:48the Middle East situation and Trump doesn't have control of the domestic situation, that pretty

1:18:54much solidifies the MAGA split, who's ever in the MAGA, obviously you're going to have

1:19:00the diehard Trump people that are going to go there, right?

1:19:04And then you're going to have the coalition folks, the libertarians, the America First people,

1:19:10maybe some blue dog Democrats that got on board against all this DEI stuff or

1:19:15whatever. They're going to probably sit on the sidelines, right?

1:19:21And just on the sidelines now, all of a sudden you have sway.

1:19:24And if we don't have control of who's voting, how they're voting, because no rules

1:19:29have been changed. Mail -in balloting hasn't been changed.

1:19:32Election IDs haven't been changed, all this.

1:19:35So we're right back where we were, you know, and then the real reality is

1:19:40that, you know, it is Elon Musk and all of the other people that have

1:19:45vast audiences going to come in and support the political campaigns of all these MAGA

1:19:50Republicans. And we're already see that start to look like it's not going to happen.

1:19:56So what does that mean?

1:19:58That means that we lose the House and the Senate.

1:20:00All right. A lot of that is going to unfold here in the next, I

1:20:05think, 15 to 30 days.

1:20:06We'll see. This is my recommendation.

1:20:12And this goes to you, President Trump and your cabinet.

1:20:17Come out tomorrow or this week, maybe one more week of pounding them and declare

1:20:23victory, right? Say, yep, we accomplished, missing task.

1:20:27The Ayatollah is dead. The whole upper echelon of the IRGC is gone.

1:20:32We've completely destroyed all, uh, and 90 % of their military capabilities.

1:20:38Um, and we, we, we won and then pull back, stop striking them.

1:20:45And then this gives you what gives you time to reassess, reestablish, uh, and, and,

1:20:51and get back to your Gulf States, bring a heightened protection to your Gulf States,

1:20:56uh, uh, increase your missiles to the anti or your defensive missile systems in all

1:21:01of these Gulf States, start escorting the oil ships through the Straits of Hormuz, but

1:21:08come out there and be strong and declare victory and then have all your other

1:21:12personnel say the same thing.

1:21:14We did it. We won.

1:21:16Then what I would do is I would have JD Vance, uh, uh, uh, Mark

1:21:21Rubio fly over with the Gulf States, have a big meeting, say this, what do

1:21:25you guys want? What do you need?

1:21:26Can you help us, uh, uh, uh, broker, you know, move forward with peaceful resolution.

1:21:31I'd have JD Vance fly over to Turkey and, uh, meet with Aragon and some

1:21:36maybe in Pakistan and say, Hey, can you help us, uh, uh, bring Iran, then

1:21:41whoever's going to be in the Iran and you wait two weeks, four weeks, a

1:21:44month, whatever it is. Can you help us, uh, make contact with the new people

1:21:50in charge to begin to broker what their.

1:21:52future is going to look like in terms of letting them get it back on

1:21:56their feet, you know, letting them start selling their oil, oil production so they can

1:22:00stabilize their economy so that their people aren't pissed at, which pretty much I'm sure

1:22:07many of them already are.

1:22:08And you start to get this thing under control diplomatically, politically, and economically.

1:22:14And then unfortunately, in the other part of that, Trump needs to get on the

1:22:18phone with Bibi and say, enough, that's it.

1:22:21You got what you wanted.

1:22:22You're done, no more, right?

1:22:25That's it. And if you do it again, you're on your own.

1:22:28And if he can say that publicly, I think what you do is you have,

1:22:33that's his finger in the dike, and he stops the outflow of the dam that's

1:22:39cracking right now for him and for the Republican Party and the MAGA movement, right?

1:22:45Because what you're going to do, if this thing prolongs through the midterms and keeps

1:22:49going and we go into 27 and into 28, you can forget the presidency in

1:22:5528. There's no doubt in my military mind, my political mind, and my mind as

1:23:01a U .S. citizen that conservatives can keep the White House in 28 if we

1:23:07are still engaged in a war with Iran by then.

1:23:10All right? All right. What do you think, Jory?

1:23:15That was a ton. That was a ton, but it was good.

1:23:19Well, there is a ton.

1:23:20That's the thing. Yeah. There's a lot to think about with this.

1:23:23This is, that's why the Middle East is as complex as it is.

1:23:28That's why it's always been as complex as it is.

1:23:31But again, what can you do?

1:23:34You can stay informed. The other aspect that you can do is if you've got

1:23:39a desire to want to know more, then bombard the White House.

1:23:45Bombard your state senators. Bombard your congressmen.

1:23:49Bombard the people who are in the know and demand real answers.

1:23:53What is the tactics? What is the plan?

1:23:57How are we going to end this?

1:23:59How are we going to stabilize the Middle East?

1:24:01Right? Because that's what quells people's worries.

1:24:05And right now, people are worried.

1:24:08I'm worried. I know you're worried.

1:24:10I know you're worried for your family.

1:24:12You're worried for your future.

1:24:13I've had three people just in the last 24 hours ask me, hey, David, is

1:24:19it safe to travel? Can I travel?

1:24:22And that was domestically. They're not going over to Europe or Africa or Eastern Europe.

1:24:28They're going north of the Middle East.

1:24:30Right? Although I just definitely had, I'm in this big group text from my lacrosse

1:24:36teammates from Penn State. And one guy in there got stranded over in the Middle

1:24:44East for 10 days. He could not get out.

1:24:47And so that's a reality.

1:24:50All right? We are in a destabilized world right now.

1:24:54And so we need to be able to reassure the American population that we know

1:25:00what we're doing. We're not going to repeat in Iraq.

1:25:02We're not going to repeat in Afghanistan or Vietnam or whatever it is.

1:25:05And that this is a new dawn of American military prowess and power, which we

1:25:11already know. But also a new dawn for American diplomacy.

1:25:41All right. Primarily, I'm on X.

1:25:43That's what I think is the number one news site in the world.

1:25:46So you can follow me if you want to follow the show there.

1:25:48It's at DRutherfordShow. All other social media is at David Rutherford Show.

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1:25:58to our channel. Obviously, from a revenue perspective, that's massive for us, as well as

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1:26:16of information into a contextual way so you can have a better understanding of what

1:26:21decisions you can make for the future.

1:26:24All right. Hoo -yah. God bless you.

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David Rutherford Show: Iran War Day 8 - Is This Becoming World War III?